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STAT NOTES
Probability
BCAFY(2021-22)
9673610505 / 9763610505
factorial
• 0! =1 • 5!= 5 X 4 X 3 X 2 X 1
• 1!=1 • = 5 X 4 X 3 X 2!
• =5X4X3!
• 2!=2 X 1 • = 5 X 4!
• 3!= 3 X 2 X 1 • 6!= 6 X 5 X 4 X 3 X 2 X 1
• = 3 X 2! • = 6 X 5 X 4 X 3 X 2!
• =6X5X4X3!
• 4!= 4 X 3 X 2 X 1 • = 6 X 5 X 4!
• = 4 X 3 X 2! • = 6 X 5!
• =4X3!
4.1 permutation
• permutation relates to the act of arranging all the
members of a set into some sequence or order.
• In other words, if the set is already ordered, then the
rearranging of its elements is called the process of
permuting.
5𝑃
5!
3 = 5𝑋4
3! 5 − 3 ! 5𝑃
3 =
2𝑋1
5𝑃
5!
3 =
3! 2 ! 5𝑃
5𝑋2
3 =
1
5𝑃
5𝑋4𝑋3!
3 = 5𝑃
3! 2 ! 3 =10
Combination
• The combination is a way of selecting items from a
collection, such that (unlike permutations) the order
of selection does not matter.
4.2 Sample Space & Events
• A sample space is a collection or a set of possible outcomes of a random
experiment. The sample space is represented using the symbol, “S”.
• .
Events & their types
• The subset of possible outcomes of an experiment is called events.
• Types of Events
• 1. Simple Event
• If the event E has only one sample point of a sample space, it is called a simple event or an Elementary
Event. It is an event that consists of exactly one outcome.
• E = {2}.
• 2. Compound Event
• As opposed to a simple event, if there is more than one sample point on a sample space, such an
event is called Compound Event.
• E = {2,4,6}.
• 3. Certain Event
• Just as the name suggests, an event which is sure to occur in any given experiment is a certain
event. The probability of this type of event is 1.
• 4. Impossible Event
• On the other hand, when an event cannot occur i.e. there is no chance of the event occurring it is
said to be an impossible event. The probability of this event is 0.
• 5. Complimentary Events
• For an event E the non-occurrence of the event is called its complimentary event. Basically
complimentary events are events that cannot occur at the same time.
• 6. Mutually Exclusive Events
• Two events are said to be mutually exclusive events when both cannot occur at the same time.
4.3 Probability
• Probability can be defined as the ratio of the number of
favorable outcomes to the total number of outcomes of an
event.
P(A) is probability of event A
N(A) is number of favorable events of A
N(S) total number of possible outcomes (sample space)
4.4 Axioms of probability
• 1. probability of an any event A is in between 0 to 1 i.e.
P(A) = 0<= p(A) <=1
• 2. probability of sample space is always 1
p(S) = n(s) / n(S) =1
• 3. if A & B are two mutually exclusive events then
probability of event A or B is given as
• P(A U B ) = P(A) + P(B)
4.5 Thermos of probability
• Therom –I : prove that p(A) +P(A’) =1
• Proof: if A and B are two mutually exclusive events
A’
• By using third axiom of probability we can write that
• P(A U A’) = P(A) +P(A’) -----------------1
• We can write S= A + A’
• Hence we can write
• P(S) =P(A) +P(A’) ------------------------2
• But by using axiom 2 of probability that probability of
sample space is always 1 hence we can write P(s)=1
• Put this value in eq. 2 we get
• 1=P(A) +P(A’)
• Hence proved
• P(A) + P(A’) =1
• OR P(A) =1-P(A’)
• Therom –II : for any event A of sample space S prove
that 0<= p(A) <=1
• Proof:
By using axiom –I of probability that probability of any
event A is always >=0
• i.e. P(A) >=0 --------------------------------1
If A’ is a complement event of A then probability of P(A’) is
also >=0 hence we can write
i.e. P(A’) >=0 --------------------------------2
We know that P(A’) =1- P(A)
i.e. 1-P(A) >=0 -----------------------------3
Hence from equation 1 & 3 we can write
0<= p(A) <=1
Hence proved.
• Therom –III : prove that
• P(AUB)= P(A)+P(B) –P(AՈB)
• Proof:
• Consider A & B are not two mutually exclusive event then
• From above diagram we can write
• P(AUB) = P(A’ՈB)+ P(AՈB) + P(AՈB’) ------------- 1
• From diagram we can also write
• P(A) = P(A’ՈB)+ P(AՈB) -------------------------------2
• And
• P(B) = P(AՈB) + P(AՈB’) -----------------------------3
• Now add equation 2 & 3 we get
• P(A) + P(B) = P(A’ՈB)+ P(AՈB) + P(AՈB’) + P(AՈB)
• From equation 1 we can write
• P(A) + P(B) = P(AUB) + P(AՈB)
• We can write
• P(AUB)= P(A) +P(B)- P(AՈB)
• Hence proved
