Gartner Futures Lab: The 7

Forces That Will Impact Your

Organization’s Future
Marty Resnick

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 Tapestry is part of the Gartner Futures Lab,
our home for unconventional, speculative
and futuristic research.

The mission of the Gartner Futures Lab is

to prepare you for uncertainty by exploring
new ways of imagining the future.
By starting with the question “What if … ”
we help you determine your uncharted next
mission-critical priorities.

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 “Difficult to see.
Always in motion is the future.”
— Master Yoda

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Disruption Is Everywhere Russia-Ukraine War
(2022)
Massive Protests Massive Flooding
(2019-2020) Brexit (2020-2021)
(2018-2021)
Trade Wars
ChatGPT (2018-2019)
(2022)

China
U.S. Elections Energy Crisis
Record-Breaking (2021)
(2020-2021)
Wildfire Season
(2020)
Suez Canal Japan 7.3
Colonial Pipeline Obstruction Earthquake
Cyberattack (2021) Moon Landing
(2022)
(2021) (2023)

Record-Breaking European
Hurricane Season COVID-19 Gas Crisis
(2020) (2019-TBD) (2022)
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Reach Beyond Technology

Technology

Politics

Economics

Social/Cultural

Trust/Ethics

Regulatory/Legal

Environmental

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Focus on the Combination of Force(s)

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 Anticipate Advocate Accelerate

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The 7 Forces That Will Impact Your
Organization’s Future

1. Democratized Generative AI
2. Digital Paranoia
3. Economic Transparency
4. Synthesized Culture
5. Decline of Digital Trust
6. Divergence in Global AI Rulemaking
7. Reality of Net Zero

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 Brave New Worlds

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The World
We Generate

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1. Democratized
Generative AI

GenAI will democratize information

and skills across a broad set of
roles and business functions,
making it one of the most disruptive
forces of this decade.

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 Democratizing Generative AI

By 2026, more than 80% of enterprises will have

used generative AI APIs and models and/or
deployed GenAI-enabled applications in production
environments, up from less than 5% in 2023.

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 Democratizing Generative AI

• Content Generation • Competition

• Improved Efficiency • New Skills Needed
• Hyperpersonalization
• Re-Evaluate Business Risks

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 Democratizing Generative AI

• Create priority matrix of use cases.

• Employ new approach to change management
that focuses on training and well-being.
• Solve for explainability and content moderation.
• Build a portfolio of quick wins.

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2. Digital
Paranoia

The pace of digital transformation

fuels digital paranoia, since the
technologies advance and
proliferate before their implications,
for better or worse, may be
fully understood.

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 Digital Paranoia

By 2030, 50% of employees will receive personal

cybersecurity management/insurance benefits
from their employers, particularly for
remote/hybrid employees.

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 Digital Paranoia

• Responsible AI • Digital
• Operational Efficiency Fragmentation
• Prepare for Disruptions • Customer
Base Alienation
• Incompatibility and Conflict

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 Digital Paranoia

• Prioritize building competitive digital advantages

and partnerships.
• Establish protocols, guidance and training.
• Establish permanent and flexible digital
innovation and enablement teams.
• Dedicate teams to monitor national and
international digital governance efforts.
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3. Economic
Transparency

Economic transparency refers to

the desire for democratization of
analysis of and insight from market,
financial and governmental
information to drive investment and
policy decisions by non-subject
matter experts.
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 Economic Transparency

By 2030, generative AI can help increase the

traceability of economic activity by shrinking the
number of people who don't have any access to
banking by 50%.

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 Economic Transparency

• Digital Economy • Privacy Concerns

Expansion • Cybersecurity
• Resource Stewardship Threats
• Investment Opportunities
• Challenging

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 Economic Transparency
• Identify opportunities to grant consumers and
stakeholders access to easily consumable
economic and financial data.
• Seek to consume transparent economic and
financial data to enhance products and services.
• Use emerging generative AI techniques to cut
through data obfuscation and derive greater insight
from what is currently available.
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4. Synthesized
Culture

The occurrence of generative AI

creating cultural artifacts that
results in a human-machine culture,
or a dehumanized machine culture.

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 Synthesized Culture

By 2026, over 100 million humans will engage

robo-colleagues (synthetic virtual colleagues —
digital humans) in enterprise work.

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 Synthesized Culture

• Reinvent • Deep Fakes

Customer Experience • Job Risk
• Augment Content Creation • Risk to the Arts
• Personalized Training

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 Synthesized Culture

• Identify jobs in your organization that are likely to

be impacted by generative AI and incorporate this
into future workforce planning.
• Determine how these roles may benefit by
augmenting content creation with AI.
• Address data privacy concerns over how data
submitted to LLMs is used internally and
customer facing.
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5. Decline of
Digital Trust

People are becoming increasingly

TRUST
wary of the potential impacts of
digital technologies and specifically
those companies that are
deploying them.

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 Decline of Digital Trust

Through 2025, organizations that can instill

digital trust will be able to participate in 50%
more ecosystems to expand revenue
generation opportunities.

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 Decline of Digital Trust

• “Certified Human” • Violating Trust

• Ecosystem • Safeguarding
• Privacy Sells
• Competition

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 Decline of Digital Trust

• Launch a “Certified Human” initiative.

• Develop and publish a digital trust policy for
your organization.
• Ensure your digital trust policy delivers on
its promises.

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 Divergence
6. in Global AI
Rulemaking
Divergence in global AI
rulemaking refers to the increased
and disparate legislative, regulatory
and standard-setting efforts to direct
development and define acceptable
use of AI systems.

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 Divergence in Global
AI Rulemaking
By 2027, a regulatory agency in the EU will issue
a fine in excess of €1 billion as a result of
noncompliance with provisions in the EU AI Act.

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 Divergence in Global
AI Rulemaking
• Demand • Direct Costs
• Leadership • Public Rejection
• Shape
• Legal Uncertainties

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 Divergence in Global
AI Rulemaking
• Require transparency from IT vendors on AI use.
• Work with legal counsel to draft contractual provisions that
protect for data privacy and confidentiality.
• Develop governance and auditing processes to ensure
decision-making systems are hardened against
malicious actors.
• Reach an agreement with stakeholders about ethics
guidelines for “high-risk” AI uses, based on emerging
regulatory standards.
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7. Reality of
Net Zero

Enterprises and cities working to

achieve net zero are faced with
several challenges, including digital
immaturity, poor data accessibility
and quality, limited financial support
and competing priorities.

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 Reality of Net Zero

By 2026, 80% of global enterprises with net

zero goals will restate interim milestones
under stakeholder scrutiny of progress
and underinvestment.

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 Reality of Net Zero

• Goals • Credibility
• Outcomes • Misalignment
• Missed Innovation
• Transparency

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 Reality of Net Zero

• Reevaluate your strategies, but do not stop

the effort.
• Reorient your environmental sustainability plan
toward what is feasible.
• Balance the accountability of net zero
carefully with the opportunity to get better net
zero execution results.
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Recommendations

Expand your focus beyond just technology.

Start with today and anticipate plausible futures.
Advocate for tomorrow and influence the future you want to see.
Accelerate change and innovation by acting now.

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