Vibgyor Model United Nations 2025 - 15th Edition

The COP 30 Committee

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 BACKGROUND GUIDE

Agendas :
​
Discussing legal status and mitigation measures for climate refugees.
&
Strengthening the Paris Agreement and evaluating the nationally
determined contributions (NDCs) to achieve the 1.5 Celsius target.

Written by
Saniya Philip | Chairperson
Mithun C | Chairperson
Krisha Vanjole | Co - Chairperson
Executive Board Members, COP 30
Vibgyor MUN 2025

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 Message from the Executive Board Members

Greetings from the Executive Board! We are pleased to welcome you to what may
be one of the most rewarding experiences you have ever had as a delegate. This is
your EB for COP 30 at VMUN 15. We look forward to some passionate and
energetic debate on this committee. The consensus that the committee asks you to
reach might have a considerable impact on the world and the environment. Please
expect the committee to be fast-paced, action-packed, and fun-filled. Our
background guide focuses on various aspects of the two agendas at hand. You must
focus on research analysis as much as the research itself. We will be noting every
move, every speech, and every strategy that you execute in committee, so make
sure you prepare yourself for the task.

Additionally, staying organized and keeping track of important deadlines will help
ensure a successful committee experience. Modern problems require modern
solutions and thus we must learn to adapt to dynamic environments and shape
dynamic strategies that can handle shifting scenarios. Use this background guide to
boost yourself in the right direction for your research.

Your chairs are eager to see you.

Yours truly, ​

Saniya Philip | Chairperson

Mithun C | Chairperson
Krisha Vanjole | Co - Chairperson

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 Index

Beginner’s Guide to Model UN 5

Introduction to COP 30 9
Introduction to Agenda 1 10
How Climate Change Influence Displacement 12
Legal Status of Climate Refugees 14
Complexity in Defining a Climate Refugee 16
Roles of UNHRC 18
International Framework 20
QARMA for Agenda 1 21
Introduction to Agenda 2 22
What are NDCs? 24
Significance of NDC’s 26
Challenges with respect to the Paris Agreement 27
Ratchet Mechanism 29
What is the 1.5 C Target & Its Significance 30
Can the target still be achieved? 35
QARMA for Agenda 2 37
Sources 38

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 Beginner’s Guide to Model UN

What is the United Nations?

The United Nations is an international organization founded in 1945 to

maintain international peace and security, develop friendly relations among
nations and promote social progress, better living standards, and human rights
by 51 countries. The United Nations has 6 principal organs.

The UN has 4 main purposes

● To keep peace throughout the world;

● To develop friendly relations among nations;
● To help nations work together to improve the lives of poor people, to
conquer hunger, disease, and illiteracy, and to encourage respect for
each other’s rights and freedoms;
● To be a center for harmonizing the actions of nations to achieve these goals

​
What is Model United Nations?​

Model United Nations is a simulation of the actual United Nations which is

done to enhance knowledge about pressing International issues. It is called
Model United Nations not mock United Nations because it does not work as a
replica of the United Nations, it is just an attempt to understand the workings
of the United Nations by practicing some of its working mechanisms. Every
person who participates is given a country to represent and are called
Delegates of their respective committees. There are some rules that we follow
in MUNs to facilitate the debate called rules of procedure. The procedure that
is closest to what is followed in the actual UN is UN4MUN.

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How to prepare for a Model United Nations Conference?​

1.​ General Research and Preparation Guidelines ​

The EB gives three instruments to help you: this Guide to Delegate
Preparation, Background Guides, and Position Papers. Together, these will
guarantee you will be prepared for the gathering. Past perusing and
understanding the material we have given, the more pragmatic experience
you can gain through banter, goal composing, making introductions, and so
forth, the more ready you will be.​

2.​ Meaningful Preparation​

We recommend reading the Background Guide, talking about them, and
reading them once more. On the off chance that an agent has not perused and
ingested the data in the Background Guide, the person won't contribute
adequately to the board beginning on the Background Guide will empower
you to completely comprehend the subjects and start to tissue out your
thoughts. Advise yourself that you should go about as policymakers,
dissecting and shaping the data you have gotten into arrangements and goals.
Conversations with different representatives will likewise assist you with
fostering your thoughts. While the Background Guide will give a large
portion of your meaningful readiness, autonomous exploration is valuable,
fulfilling, and important for a fruitful gathering.​
​
​

3.​ Positional Preparation ​

We expect representatives to receive the situation of a particular country all
through the UN reproduction. This is a vital component of the "global"
experience of a model UN as it powers representatives to analyze the points
of view, issues, and arrangements of one more country at an exceptionally
major level. It is the most troublesome part of MUN because understudies
should go up against the natural inclinations of their own public viewpoints
and authentic data. The position papers are the focal point of positional
planning before the meeting. Albeit generally short, we request that you
invest energy and exertion in investigating and keeping in touch with them.

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 Materials arranged by the EB are not intended to fill in for your exploration.
All things being equal, they ought to give a beginning stage, motivating you
to ask yourself inquiries about the current issues. The best-arranged agents
are those that accept the given materials as the start of their exploration and
dig further into the theme regions. Past these materials are a large group of
data administrations, starting with United Nations sources. UN's assets
regularly have ordered measurements, outlines, and charts which you may
discover supportive in understanding the issues. Most UN report
communities convey records of UN gatherings; maybe the most ideal
approach to comprehend your nation's position is to see it iterated by its
diplomat.

Explicit assets to research include

1.​ Yearbook of the United Nation​

The Yearbook is a decent beginning stage for your examination. The
Yearbook will furnish you with general data on what has been done on
your theme during a specific year. It likewise gives exceptionally
accommodating references to past articles and goals,

2.​ United Nations Chronicle​

This magazine gives you general data on the procedures of the UN.
Watch out for exceptional reports on your theme region, which will
advise you about the point and countries' situations on it.

3.​ UN Document Index​

This record for all UN reports comes in three distinct renditions: UNDI
(1950-1973), UNDEX (1970-1978), and UNODC (1979-present).
Contingent upon which of the three you are utilizing, you will track down a
subject record, a nation file, and an alphanumeric rundown of all reports
distributed (this is helpful because each panel has its own novel
alphanumeric prefix and accordingly you can track down every one of the
records put out by a board of trustees during a specific year paying little heed
to the particular theme.

4.​ US Resolutions ​
This arrangement is both significant and extremely simple to utilize. The
record is aggregate from 1946, which implies that you need just check the

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 most current list to track down every one of the goals on your point that the
UN has at any point passed.

5.​ Other UN Sources ​

Depending on the subject, there may be extra pertinent UN sources. Check
for books and exceptional reports put out by the WHO. Past United Nations
sources, notwithstanding, are general wellsprings of data. Explore your
school and nearby libraries. Look at diaries, periodicals, and papers for more
current sources. Remember to ask the curators for help.

6.​ Books​
Up-to-date books are probably going to give you a profundity and exactness
that is hopeless from UN sources or periodicals. Try to check library
postings for bound materials. Book research, in any case, can take a decent
arrangement of time, so use prudence when choosing books.​

7.​ Periodicals​
Periodicals are valuable for straightforward, current data on points (the
Reader's Guide to Periodical Literature and InfoTrack fill in as a record
for these materials). Try not to anticipate that they should supply you
with the profundity of data you will require for the Conference.​

8.​ People​
A regularly ignored source; individuals can help you extraordinarily in
your exploration. A few groups to remember are: bookkeepers,
individual agents, personnel counselors, and your board of trustees'
Director, Moderator, and Assistant Directors. Not only can these
individuals help you discover what you are searching for, but they may
likewise suggest new sources that you had not thought of. Try not to
spare a moment to call or email your advisory group Director.​

9.​ Embassies and Consular Offices​

Contact the government office or consular office of the country that
you are addressing. These spots are happy to help you in your
exploration via mailing factual information and other unclassified data.

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 Introduction To COP 30

The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP 30) to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is set to take place in Belém, Brazil, in
2025. This annual gathering serves as a critical platform for world leaders,
policymakers, scientists, and activists to assess global progress in addressing
climate change. As the host country, Brazil, is home to the Amazon Rainforest, is
expected to bring a strong focus on environmental conservation, deforestation, and
the role of indigenous communities in climate action. Given the increasing urgency
of the climate crisis, COP 30 will likely be a pivotal moment for nations to
strengthen their commitments and push for more ambitious climate policies.

The history of COP conferences dates back to the establishment of the UNFCCC in
1992, which laid the foundation for international cooperation on climate change.
Over the years, key agreements have shaped global climate policy, with milestones
such as the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Paris Agreement (2015), which set
ambitious goals to limit global warming. Recent COPs have emphasized the need
for urgent action, particularly in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, phasing out
fossil fuels, and increasing financial support for developing nations. COP 28, held
in the UAE in 2023, marked the first-ever Global Stocktake, assessing the world’s
progress towards Paris Agreement goals, while COP 29 in Azerbaijan (2024)
focused on climate finance and funding mechanisms.

As COP 30 approaches, it is expected to be a defining moment in the climate

negotiation process. With Brazil at the forefront, discussions will likely address
strategies to combat deforestation, promote sustainable development, and ensure
equitable climate financing. The conference will serve as a key checkpoint for
evaluating progress on emission reduction targets and reinforcing commitments to
a net-zero future. With mounting pressure for tangible action, COP 30 is set to
shape the next phase of global climate governance.

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 Agenda 1

Introduction

Since 2008, over 376 million people have been displaced as a result of climate
disasters. This is the equivalent of one person being displaced every second, or as
if the entire population of Australia were forced to abandon their homes every year.
In 2022 alone, 36.2 million people were displaced because of natural disasters
brought about by climate change, and while many found refuge within their own
country, some were forced to go abroad. With the projected number of people
affected expected to double by 2050 according to the International Federation of
Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), the annual worldwide displacement
of millions of people due to environmental disasters needs to be addressed
properly. Since the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development,
the issue of international migration and its connection with development has been
rising steadily up the agenda of the international community. The United Nations
(UN) 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development includes several
migration-related targets and calls for regular reviews of progress towards their
achievement using data disaggregated by, inter alia, migratory status. Nevertheless,
the response to this challenge has been limited, and protection for those affected
remains inadequate.

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 How Climate Changes Influence Displacement

Climate change can generate 'refugees' in several ways, and rising temperatures are
known to increase the frequency and intensity of weather-related disasters. While
most climate displacement happens internally and displaced people can sometimes
return to their homes after a disaster, the growing impact of climate change is
making certain areas increasingly uninhabitable, making it difficult to return.

Despite the difficulties in quantifying accurately the number of persons externally

displaced because of climate disasters, studies show that external migration linked
to climate disasters will most probably increase in the coming years. This will only
add to the pressure on refugee agencies and migration policies that are already
under stress because of the ongoing migration crisis notably in Europe since 2015.
Whether it is internal or external, forced displacement of people can lead to
conflict and tension with those already living in the destination land. In 2019, the
IPCC explained that displacement can create competition for food, clean water
access and jobs, whilst also exacerbating pre-existing ethnic tension or gender
violence and worsening the situation in sensitive regions affected by wars and
violence. The IEP published its third annual Ecological Threat Report in October
2022, as part of its continued task of measuring and monitoring the level of
ecological threats faced by vulnerable countries, while providing projections for
2050. Combining comprehensive ecological data with measures of resilience, the
report lists the countries that are least likely to withstand the effects of climate
disasters and ecological shocks in the coming decades. Additionally, the report
finds that over 1 billion people live in countries where the state's ability to cope
with projected ecological events by 2050 is seen as insufficient. According to the
report, North/sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia are the regions
that are most strongly exposed to these ecological shocks, which include food

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insecurity, water risk and natural disasters. The report further states that out of
what are deemed the 40 least peaceful countries in the world, almost half are
simultaneously perceived to be under the highest threat of ecological disaster.
Similarly, the IDMC report states that 'disasters often overlap with conflict in
certain regions' . Among these countries, Afghanistan is the most strongly affected
by natural hazard displacements, with 1 117 000 people displaced because of
climate disasters in 2020. In 2022, Afghanis were the second-largest group, by
nationality, of asylum seekers in the EU. Indeed, regarding overall displacement
data, climate disasters trigger over three times more displacements than conflict
and violence while also triggering local conflicts or worsening ongoing ones. The
drought in Somalia drove people away from their rural homes to urban areas where
they are now at greater risk of eviction and attacks by armed groups. People who
have been forcibly displaced by adverse climate conditions encounter
stigmatization and violence in the places to which they fled, can fall within the
remit of the 1951 Refugee Convention and be granted legal status and international
protection.

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 Legal Status Of Climate Refugees

The lack of a legal definition for persons forced to move for climate-related
reasons is of particular concern, as they can easily find themselves in a legal limbo
owing to the lack of recognition of their status and their need for humanitarian
protection. Principle 1 of the 1972 Declaration of the United Nations Conference
on the Human Environment (the Stockholm Declaration) states that there is a
fundamental right to freedom, equality and adequate conditions of life, in an
environment of a quality that permits a life of dignity and well-being'. The
Stockholm Declaration reflects a general recognition of the interdependence and
interrelatedness of human rights and the environment, which is key to addressing
this legal limbo. Although most people who have been forcibly displaced for
climate-related reasons remain within their national borders (i.e. they are internally
displaced), some go abroad and therefore become externally displaced. Yet, as
most of the available data focuses on internally displaced persons, it is difficult to
develop a clear overview of the scale of cross-border migration for reasons relating
to climate. This lack of precise data (also caused by the legal void surrounding the
status of such persons, also referred to as 'external climate migrants'), prevents the
implementation of an international legal framework to address this issue. However,
since the launch of the Nansen Initiative in 2012, the international community has
begun to consider the phenomenon of external migration for climate reasons.

On 19 September 2016, the UN General Assembly adopted the New York

Declaration for Refugees and Migrants, in which it called for the development of
two global compacts, one on refugees and the other on 'other migrants'. The
second, the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM),
endorsed on 10 December 2018 in Morocco, acknowledges under its Objective 2
the urgent situation of migrants displaced because of climate change. In the same

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year, the 24th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (COP24) addressed the displacement of people as
a result of climate change. Nevertheless, although climate migration is now a
recurrent topic in international negotiations, so far no official status or legal
protection has been granted to those affected. The 2019 COP25, while relying on
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on climate
change and land, addressed the issue of desertification and the heightened global
food scarcity risk as outcomes of climate change compromising the quality of
human life. Building on that, the International Organization for Migration (IOM)
stated that climate change-related outcomes that worsen the living conditions of
already vulnerable populations act as triggers for increased human mobility. The
significance of the nexus between climate change-induced disasters and
displacements has been acknowledged, but without sufficiently addressing the need
to secure a special status for climate-displaced persons. Host countries prefer to
seek to solve the problem 'at the root', by diminishing pollution and minimising
climate change. Tackling this 'root cause' was at the heart of COP26 held in 2021
in Glasgow. However, as participants continued to disagree on whether the world
was on track to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C, they failed to produce legally
binding targets with the required sense of urgency. According to CarbonBrief, they
also failed to provide vulnerable nations with adequate resources to undo or
address the impacts of climate change. While new pledges might prove fruitful for
tackling long-term objectives, humanity continues to face the short-term challenge
of displacement due to climate change.

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 Complexity in Defining a Climate Refugee

The term 'environmental refugee' has been used in position papers presented by
various non- governmental organisations, and also in the media and in academic
literature. The term is especially associated with the early stages of reflection on
the topic, before a distinction started to be drawn between the different types of
environmental change and forms of mobility. It was used to raise awareness and to
focus on the forced nature of the displacement. However, the use of the term and
status of 'refugee' to describe people in this situation has subsequently been
criticised, primarily because the term has a specific legal meaning in the context of
the 1951 Refugee Convention and international refugee law. Relevant UN agencies
and the IOM considered that the use of the term 'refugee' would be inappropriate in
that context, and that it would not be opportune or feasible to widen the definition
of refugees provided in the 1951 Refugee Convention to include additional
categories of persons. The term 'environmental migrant' is widely used, including
by the IOM. Nevertheless, the term 'migrant' might not always be considered
appropriate, as it suggests a degree of volition in the decision to move. One of the
most recent terms to have gained popularity is 'environmentally/climate displaced
person'. This term is descriptive – referring to at least of one part of the mobility
spectrum (displacement) – an does not necessarily imply responsibility as regards
governance. Although there is no internationally accepted legal definition of a
'displaced person', the concept of 'internally displaced persons' (IDPs) is relevant
when displacements occur internally.

The phenomenon of 'climate refugees' has been in the public discourse since 1985,
when the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) expert Essam El-Hinnawi defined
'environmental refugees' as: 'those people who have been forced to leave their
traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of marked environmental

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disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardise their existence
and/or seriously affected the quality of their life'. This definition is also used for
the term 'climate refugees'; whether there is a practical difference between
'environmental' and 'climate' remains unclear. One of the key challenges in
securing protection for those affected by displacement due to climate change lies in
the complexities involved in defining the term 'climate refugee', while also taking
the pre-existing discourse surrounding the Refugee Convention and previous
attempts at defining 'environmental refugees' into account.

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 Roles of UNHCR

UNHCR has engaged in climate-related displacement initiatives since the

mid-1990s, with concrete policy and operational responses in the early 2000s.
Their work focuses primarily on legal guidance, development, promotion of policy
coherence, research to fill knowledge gaps, and field-based operations to address
internal and cross-border displacement, environmental impact, and overall risk
reduction activities, including those intended to reduce or avert displacement
overall. Since 2015, UNHCR has remained active in climate change displacement
alleviation efforts, partnering with additional UN entities such as UNFCCC,
intergovernmental organizations such as the Organisation for Economic
Cooperation and Development, and others including the Global Protection Cluster
and the Platform on Disaster Displacement (PDD). In 2015, UNHCR hosted a
regional workshop focusing on domestic implementation of the African Union
Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in
Africa, also known as the Kampala Convention (2009). The convention recognizes
persons internally displaced by armed conflict, but most notably, by climate change
and disaster, with article 5 formally establishing state responsibilities, protection,
and assistance of such individuals displaced by climate change and disaster.
UNHCR has supported the PDD since 2016, reinforcing the Nansen Initiative
Protection Agenda, a joint consultation approach by states and multinational
stakeholders in an effort to synthesize international cooperation, treatment
standards of those displaced, and operational mechanisms. In 2017, UNHCR made
efforts to effectively provide international protection and humanitarian assistance
with their action on forced migration due to climate change and disaster through its
2017-2021 Strategic Directions.This plan of action contains five core directions:
“Protect, Respond, Include, Empower, and Solve.” The strategic directions serve as

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UNHCR’s way of charting the issue surrounding displacement with relation to
major global issues impacting the international community over the next five years.

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 International Framework

1.​ The Universal Declaration Of Human Rights (UDHR) 1948​

It states that these rights are to be universally recognized and observed by
people within Member States and the territories they control.​

2.​ The Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees (1951) ​

It is also referred to as the “Refugee Convention”, serves as the main
instrument of refugee law building.​

3.​ United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ​

It produced the Paris Agreement, encouraging all Member States to unite in
the common cause to address climate change through mitigation,
transparency, action, and support of frameworks and legislation designed to
minimize human impact on the world’s climates. ​

4.​ The Kampala Ministerial Declaration on Migration, Environment, and

Climate Change (KDMECC) ​
It is a significant agreement adopted by 48 African countries to address the
complex relationship between human mobility and climate change.

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 Role of Indigenous People in Combating Climate Change

Until the twenty-first century, indigenous peoples were viewed as victims of the
effects of climate change, rather than as agents of environmental conservation.
Representatives of indigenous peoples have in fact since 2008 been actively
seeking a role in contributing to combating climate change through their
participation in international environmental conferences, as well as by means of
activism and political engagement at local and national levels. Using examples
from the Amazonian region in the east of Ecuador, home to indigenous
communities such as the Huaorani, Sápara and Sarayaku Kichwa originary
peoples, this article argues that indigenous peoples, particularly forest dwellers,
have a dual role in combating climate change. First, colonized forest peoples have
continued to resist the occupation and deforestation of lands they have lived in for
centuries; second, a number of indigenous forest communities have since the 1990s
become aware of their responsibility to protect the forests in the interests of
combating climate change. They have recognized the potential for their having
decision-making power at a local and global level that may contribute to saving the
planet. In the last 10 years indigenous peoples’ representatives have been
collectively engaged in lobbying for inclusion in intergovernmental climate change
negotiations and to have decision-making power at the United Nations. This
comment calls for international support from governments and civil society from
both North and South, at the United Nations and at other international fora, to
uphold the rights of indigenous peoples—enshrined in international law—who
wish to prevent incursions into their territory for the extraction of fossil fuels.
Moreover, it calls on governments, (I)NGOs, and private companies engaged in the
extractive industries, and in other processes of modernization and development, to
respect the right of indigenous peoples not to develop and to choose for themselves

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the level of their integration into the global economy and polity. The choice not to
develop, not to have access to the modern world through roads, for example, is
itself a contribution to protecting the rainforest and reducing greenhouse gas
emissions. Documents from the United Nations Permanent Forum on Indigenous
Issues (UNPFII) 26 April—6 May 2017. The aim is to provide policymakers, and
those to whom they are accountable, with knowledge and understanding to
improve decision-making in the interests of citizens and the environment.

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 QARMA for Agenda 1

1.​ How should “climate refugee” be legally defined to distinguish between

displacement caused by sudden environmental disasters and gradual
degradation?
2.​ What financial structures will support host nations and ensure equitable
burden-sharing?
3.​ How can climate refugees’ rights to housing, healthcare, and employment be
guaranteed in host countries without formal refugee status?
4.​ How can cross-border climate displacement be tracked consistently to
inform policy?
5.​ How will Indigenous communities, small island states, and internally
displaced persons be prioritised in legal and financial frameworks?
6.​ What strategies will address climate-driven resource scarcity that
exacerbates conflicts and secondary displacement?
7.​ What evidentiary standards should apply to establish climate change as the
primary driver of displacement, given attribution science limitations?
8.​ How should legal frameworks distinguish between temporary displacement
and permanent relocation?

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 Agenda 2​
​
What is the Paris Agreement?
​
The Paris Agreement is an international treaty with the goal of “holding the
increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial
levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above
pre-industrial levels”.
It was adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015 and
entered into force on 4 November 2016. All of the economies in which the EBRD
invests have endorsed the Paris Agreement. It also has the support of the Bank’s
shareholders.

It also aims to strengthen countries’ ability to adapt to the impacts of climate

change and, therefore, promotes both climate change mitigation (to achieve “net
zero” greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of the century) and adaptation
(through fostering climate resilience).

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At the heart of the Paris Agreement are national pledges to contribute to global
mitigation and adaptation goals. The Paris Agreement sets out a mechanism under
which each country produces a nationally determined contribution (NDC), which
must be submitted at a maximum of five-yearly intervals.

These NDCs are determined unilaterally and are expected to include targets for
GHG emission reductions and adaptation. Commitments should reflect the “highest
possible ambition”.

Each country’s NDC is expected to be more ambitious than the previous one (the
ratchet mechanism). Ambition is different from country to country, reflecting the
principle of “common-but-differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities”.

This principle recognises that while all countries will contribute to global goals,
national circumstance will determine national commitments- and is critical for the
economies in which the EBRD invests, due to their diverse starting points.

Underpinning NDCs and to facilitate a long term view, countries can also prepare
long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies and sector-specific
low carbon roadmaps. These typically set planning, policy and investment
priorities to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.

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 What are NDC’s?

One of the primary instruments for achieving the Paris Agreement goals is
Nationally Determined Contributions (also known as NDCs). These are the
national climate pledges that each Party is required to develop that articulate how
they will contribute to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapting to
impacts.

NDCs represent short- to medium-term targets and typically include measures for
both adaptation and mitigation action and are required to be updated every five
years.Each update is required to be more “ambitious”, thus having more stringent
targets and helping the world get closer to 1.5°C.

In their NDCs, countries provide a projected analysis of both climate risks and
impacts. They also outline their plans to reduce emissions from the greenhouse
gases causing climate change. NDCs specifically include countries' commitments
to reducing these emissions and adapting to these climate impacts with either

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quantitative or qualitative targets, timelines, and a set of actions across priority
sectors, such as energy, transport, agriculture, health, water, infrastructure, tourism,
and much more.

Most countries have also included estimated budgets for achieving their climate
goals, with many developing countries indicating the need for external financial
support to implement some or all of their actions when they lack the necessary
domestic resources. Technology transfer and capacity building support are also
often requested by developing countries.

When targets are dependent on external financial support, these are marked as
“conditional” targets. The targets a country can achieve without external financial
support are referred to as “unconditional”.

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 Significance Of NDCs

First, NDCs are significant because they reinforce the global goals agreed under
the Paris Agreement and show exactly what each country is committing to reach
these goals.They show us how much each Party aims to reduce their GHG
emissions, by when, and which actions they will implement to get there. Taken
collectively, NDCs can also demonstrate how close (or far) the world is to meeting
our collective climate goals.

Next, NDCs are significant because they represent politically supported plans for
investing in crucial areas that have the potential not only to meet climate goals but
also to power sustainable development. For example, 100 percent of NDCs
supported by UNDP's Climate Promise have energy targets or policies, 90 percent
cover the agriculture sector. Meeting these targets then not only addresses the
climate crisis but can also help meet development priorities – like access to energy
or food security.

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As a result, NDCs can help governments to prioritize actions across all sectors and
align their policies and legislation with climate objectives. For example, both
Uganda and Nigeria enacted National Climate Change Acts in 2021, giving force
of law to the Paris Agreement and their NDC.

Third, NDCs are universal. They are required by all countries – both developed
and developing – and have been endorsed at the highest-level of governments. So,
if used right, they could serve as our pathway to addressing the current crises
facing the world – not just the climate crisis, but also rising energy and food prices,
insecurity and instability, migration, the Covid-19 pandemic and so on.

Challenges with respect to the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is not a legally binding instrument in its entirety (see this
blog by Dean Bialek on which aspects are binding and which are not) and hence
the parties have limited accountability for failure to fulfil their obligations.
Therefore, the developed countries may not provide adequate funding to
implement mitigation and adaptation activities for ensuring climate-resilient
development. This would pose a serious challenge for the developing countries to
pursue domestic mitigation and adaptation activities to address adverse impacts of
climate change.

Although the Agreement has recognised the need to initiate approaches to enhance
private sector involvement in its implementation, particularly technology
development and transfer, however, the Agreement does not explicitly mention
Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). Therefore, the knowledge and the new
technology generated through research and development (R&D) needs IPR
protection. The private sector, profit seeking in nature, will have little incentive to
invest in this sector unless they are assured of investment return with profit. As a

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result, huge upfront investment coupled with absence of intellectual property rights
may hinder the private sector’s participation in implementation of the Agreement.

It is worth noting that the allocation of short-term, mid-term financial supports for
the developing countries has not been specified in the Agreement. Absence of
predictability and reliability of climate finance in terms of resource allocation
would pose a serious challenge for the developing countries to implement the Paris
Agreement.

Furthermore, although the phenomenon of climate-related loss and damage was

recognised in the Agreement, the possibility of compensation for losses (i.e.
compensation to affected peoples or countries) was not recognized. While the
Agreement has recognised the interrelation between human rights and climate
change impacts, there were no obligations on relocation stated in the article to
address the rights of the people vulnerable to displacement.

It is worthwhile to mention that the developing and the least developed countries
are already experiencing difficulty in developing their National Adaptation Plans
(NAPs), primarily due to inadequate funds. Climate vulnerable countries will face
serious consequences of climate change impacts without adequate allocation of
resources for implementation of NAPs as well as NDCs.

Finally, compliance of the Agreement is not sufficiently addressed to ensure

effective and efficient implementation. Its non-punitive nature will be a serious
limiting factor to achieving the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees.
Parties should reach a further agreement, by consensus, on a fully legally binding
framework, with enforcement mechanisms, for both pre-2020 and post-2020
climate action.

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 Ratchet Mechanism

NDCs are meant to be updated over time. A key principle of the Paris Agreement
is that countries would “ratchet up” their plans – that is, increase their efforts every
five years to reflect the “highest possible ambition” of each Party. Ultimately, these
revised and updated NDCs would mark stepping stones on a pathway towards net
zero by 2050.

The first generation of NDCs was part of the initial adoption of the Paris
Agreement in 2015. The second generation represents the initial update, which was
due in 2020.

We already see the ratchet mechanism working. The first generation of NDCs
reflected an aggregate reduction in the average global temperature target to 3.7
degrees Celsius. In contrast, the second generation of NDCs brought this down to
2.7 degrees Celsius. Although it is not enough to fully meet the goals outlined in
the Paris Agreement, it signifies a step in the right direction.

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 What is the 1.5 C Target & Its Significance

The science is clear: to avert the worst impacts of climate change and preserve a
liveable planet, global warming needs to be limited as much as possible and as a
matter of urgency.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to substantially reduce global

greenhouse gas emissions to enable the long-term global average surface
temperature increase to be kept well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and
pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.(Paris Agreement)

At COPs 26, 27, and 28, countries emphasized that the impacts of climate change
would be much lower at a temperature increase of 1.5°C, compared with 2°C, and
expressed their firm resolve to pursue efforts to limit global warming to
1.5°C.(COP outcomes; IPCC)

Monthly and annual breaches of 1.5°C do not mean that the world has failed to
achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal, which refers to a long-term
temperature increase over decades, not individual months or years. Temperatures

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for any single month or year fluctuate due to natural variability, including El
Niño/La Niña and volcanic eruptions. Consequently, long-term temperature
changes are typically considered on decadal timescales. (WMO)

Nevertheless, breaches of 1.5°C for a month or a year are early signs of getting
perilously close to exceeding the long-term limit, and serve as clarion calls for
increasing ambition and accelerating action in this critical decade. (UNEP).

Global temperature changes are typically measured against the average

temperature over a historical, pre-industrial baseline of 1850–1900. This baseline is
the earliest period for which high-quality observations of surface temperatures over
the land and ocean are available. (IPCC).

The first months with an average temperature that was more than 1.5°C above the
pre-industrial average occurred during 2015-16, driven by both human-caused
climate change and a strong, naturally occurring El Niño. The latter part of 2023
and early 2024 also experienced monthly average global temperature anomalies
above 1.5°C. (WMO)

The first 12-month period to exceed 1.5°C as an average was February 2023 –
January 2024, boosted by El Niño, when the average temperature worldwide was
estimated to be 1.52°C higher than 1850–1900, according to one scientific dataset
(Copernicus Climate Change Service). The likelihood of the annual average global
temperature exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year over
the coming five years has increased significantly since 2015, when it was close to
zero (WMO).

The global average temperature for the most recent 10-year period, from 2014 to
2023, is estimated to be the warmest 10-year period on record, at around 1.2°C

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above the 1850-1900 average (WMO). The 20-year average warming for
2001–2020 relative to 1850–1900 is 0.99°C (IPCC).

Every fraction of a degree of warming matters. With every additional increment of

global warming, changes in extremes and risks become larger. For example, every
additional 0.1°C of global warming causes discernible increases in the intensity
and frequency of temperature and precipitation extremes, as well as agricultural
and ecological droughts in some regions. (IPCC)

Limiting global warming to below 1.5°C will significantly reduce the risks,
adverse impacts, and related losses and damages from climate change. Failing to
do so will lead to increasingly frequent and dangerous extreme weather events
including heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and heavy precipitation and flooding
(IPCC). Extreme heat causes the greatest mortality of all extreme weather, with an
estimated 489,000 heat-related deaths per year between 2000 and 2019 (WMO).
Exceeding 1.5°C could also trigger multiple climate tipping points — such as
breakdowns of major ocean circulation systems, abrupt thawing of boreal
permafrost, and collapse of tropical coral reef systems — with abrupt, irreversible,
and dangerous impacts for humanity.(Science)

Even at current levels of global warming, we are already seeing devastating

climate impacts, including intensifying extreme weather events, alarming
reductions in ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, and several mass coral bleaching
events, with widespread harms to people, economies, and nature (IPCC). In the last
two decades, the 55 most climate-vulnerable economies alone have already
experienced climate damages exceeding US$ 500 billion (UNEP). In 2022,
disasters triggered a record 32.6 million internal displacements, of which 98%

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were caused by weather-related hazards such as floods, storms, wildfires, and
droughts (UNHCR).

Human health impacts from climate change have been apparent for at least 20
years, but the climate crisis is still not treated like other global public health
emergencies. The cumulative death toll from climate change since 2000 will pass 4
million in 2024. This number is likely a substantial underestimate since it only
focuses on climate-related malnutrition, diarrheal disease, malaria, floods, and
cardiovascular diseases, whereas climate change is a threat multiplier of many
other extreme weather events and public health risks. (Nature; PLOS)

Many climate impacts, especially sea-level rise from ice sheets, the disappearance
of mountain glaciers, and ocean acidification, are essentially permanent for many
generations to come and will take centuries to thousands of years to restore to even
today’s conditions. To minimize losses and damages, it is crucial to minimize the
magnitude and duration of temporarily exceeding 1.5°Cby urgently and
significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions and phasing out fossil fuels.

Under global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C with no or limited
temporary overshoot, global greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2025, and are
reduced by 43% by 2030 relative to 2019. carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reach
net zero by 2050. (IPCC)

However, global CO2 emissions, largely from fossil fuels, continue to rise and
reach record levels. At the current rate of emissions, the remaining “carbon
budget” for limiting long-term global warming to 1.5°C with a 50% chance
(around 250–275 billion tonnes of CO2) would be depleted by 2030. (UNEP;
Global Carbon Project)

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Countries’ commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris
Agreement have contributed to reducing the projected global warming by the end
of the 21st century from 3.7–4.8°C to 2.4–2.6°C or possibly even lower. While this
is far from sufficient, it shows that collective commitments under the Paris
Agreement have made a difference (UNFCCC).

At COP28 in December 2023, governments also agreed to increase the ambitions

of their national climate commitments — due in 2025 — to be in line with limiting
global warming to 1.5°C, as informed by the latest science, covering the whole
economy and all greenhouse gases and sectors (COP28 outcome).

Commitments and net-zero pledges must also be backed up by concrete action and
implementation. We need to bend the global emissions curve — and the production
and consumption of coal, oil, and gas — downwards, starting now(UNEP).

A wide range of solutions exist, many of which have already been deployed
successfully. Well-designed climate policies and economic measures — with close
linkages between mitigation, adaptation, and development pathways — can also
help to achieve sustainable development, deliver equity, eradicate poverty, and
protect public and planetary health (IPCC).

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 Can the target still be achieved?

The world is on course for a “catastrophic” temperature rise of more than 3C above
pre-industrial levels, or twice a goal set by the Paris Agreement, according to a UN
report that stepped up warnings that time was running out to address climate
change. The latest research by the UN Environment Programme found the world’s
ability to remain within the target of 1.5C of global warming “will be gone within a
few years” without rapid action. The conclusions are based on the so-called
emissions gap, or the difference between the level of the greenhouse gases humans
are adding to the atmosphere compared with what scientists say the levels must be
to curb the heating of the planet. Already, the long-term average temperature rise
was put at 1.1C in a 2021 landmark report signed off by almost 200 countries.
While it was still “technically possible to meet” the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C target,
this would require a huge effort from the G20 countries responsible for almost 80
per cent of global emissions, the UN report said. “Climate crunch time is here. We
need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before — starting right
now, before the next round of climate pledges — or the 1.5C goal will soon be

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dead and well below 2C will take its place in the intensive care unit,” said Inger
Andersen, UNEP executive director. If governments fully implemented their
existing climate plans the temperature rise could be limited to 2.6C, UNEP said.
But continuing with current policies would lead to 3.1C of warming, the research
found. This is slightly worse, at 0.1C higher than its emissions gap report a year
ago. UN secretary-general António Guterres said the report was clear that “we are
teetering on a planetary tight rope”. “We’re playing with fire, but there can be no
more playing for time. We’re out of time,” he added. Greenhouse gas emissions
rose to a record 57.1bn tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023, despite global
pledges to cut emissions. But nations must collectively slash emissions by 42 per
cent by 2030 and by 57 per cent by 2035 from 2019 levels, to keep within the 1.5C
threshold, the report found. If the temperature rise reaches 2C, scientists have
predicted devastating impacts for countries and biodiversity, including reduced
crop yields, while more than a third of the world’s population will be exposed to
extreme heat.

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 QARMA for Agenda 2

1.​ What binding compliance measures can be instituted for countries failing to
meet NDC targets without violating national sovereignty principles?
2.​ How should the $2.4 trillion/year climate finance gap be addressed through
innovative mechanisms like debt-for-climate swaps or SDR reallocations?
3.​ What mandatory sector-specific benchmarks must be included in NDC 3.0
revisions to ensure 2030 targets?
4.​ How will worker retraining programs and economic diversification plans be
integrated into enhanced NDCs for fossil fuel-dependent nations?
5.​ How should NDC implementation strategies address the security risks of
climate-induced migration and resource conflicts?
6.​ What percentage of NDC budgets should be allocated to climate reparations,
and through which international governance mechanism?
7.​ What contingency plans should be proposed to maintain climate cooperation
during periods of international tension?
8.​ How will the resolution institutionalize IPCC SR1.5 findings into mandatory
NDC revision criteria through the Global Stocktake process?

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 Sources ​

Europarl

UN | Climate Change

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Climate Change & Displacement Laws

Conferences Archives

Paris Agreement

Paris Agreement Opportunities & Challenges

UNDP | Climate Change

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