What is climate change: a

guide to its causes, effects and

solutions
By Celia Topping Wednesday 18 November 2020
Climate change is happening right now, as you’re reading this.
It’s a crisis that affects our whole planet and everyone on it. We
stand at a crucial moment in history – and there’s still time to do
something about it. This is our opportunity. Let’s grab it! But
first things first...
What’s the difference between climate change and global warming?
A very good question. These terms are often used interchangeably, but in fact are
quite different:

 Climate change refers to both human and naturally-produced warming,

and the effects it has on our planet. It’s a long-term change in the average weather
patterns that have come to define Earth’s local, regional and global climates.
 Global warming is the long-term heating of Earth’s climate system
observed since the pre-industrial period due to human activities, primarily fossil
fuel burning.

So what is the greenhouse effect?

When sunlight hits the earth, about 30% of solar energy is reflected back into
space. The other 70% gets absorbed by our oceans and land, which also radiate
heat into the atmosphere.
There are naturally-occurring greenhouse gases in our atmosphere - such as carbon
dioxide. These gases absorb the heat and radiate it back out again, like tiny
microscopic heaters - acting as a blanket, keeping the earth warm. This is known as
‘the greenhouse effect’. Without the greenhouse effect, the earth's average surface
temperature would be -18°C. Pretty chilly! Instead, today it’s a rather pleasant
15°C.
That means greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide) make life on Earth possible.
If carbon dioxide isn’t all bad, what’s the problem?
Well, the issue is how much carbon is being released into our atmosphere - and
how fast. This has upset the delicate balance of what we call the earth’s ’carbon
cycle’.
Carbon takes many different forms as it moves between plants, animals, soil,
oceans, and the air, via processes like photosynthesis and respiration. Nature keeps
everything
in balance, by taking carbon dioxide out of the air, thanks to the trees and the
plants. The water in the oceans dissolves carbon dioxide too.
This is our natural carbon cycle - and it's one which exists in a state of dynamic
equilibrium. So many processes on the planet are constantly rebalancing the
amount of carbon. It’s nature's way of recycling carbon atoms, using them again
and again to become all kinds of things.

Causes of climate change

For thousands of years, the Earth’s carbon cycle was perfectly balanced, and the
levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere stayed almost the same. In fact, the
concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere was stable for 800,000
years!
But then, in the late 18th century, the Industrial Revolution happened and carbon
levels began to climb. Since then, they’ve risen over 40%1.
We know that it’s humans who are causing this. And it’s mainly down to us
burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas. When these are burned, they release a lot
of energy.
That’s why humans have used them to power modern society.
But they also release lots of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. And we’re
burning them more and more, causing carbon dioxide concentrations to increase
100 times faster than the natural rate. Half of all the carbon emissions released
since 1751 have occurred in the past 30 years!
We’re also responsible for two other causes of climate change:
 Agriculture – large-scale farming releases large amounts of nitrous oxide and
methane, two powerful GHGs. Methane is released by livestock when they pass
wind – which they can do a lot – and also by their manure. And widespread
use of fertilizer has resulted in a dramatic rise in nitrous oxide, the third most
potent greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and methane.
 Deforestation – trees are nature’s best way of absorbing carbon emissions from
the atmosphere. But farming is causing vast deforestation. Not only does
cutting down trees mean less absorption, but they also release the carbon
they’ve absorbed when they're removed. Double the reason to not chop down
our carbon-munching friends.

Climate change: the facts

It’s difficult to ignore the scientific facts, no matter what climate-deniers say. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up in 1988 to give
objective scientific information on climate change, its causes, impacts, future risks,
and possible solutions. Since then they’ve written several reports, all with the same
conclusion: “climate change is real and human activities are the main cause.”
The world has already warmed by 1°C since pre-Industrial times – and that’s down
to human activity. If this carries on, the temperature would pass 1.5°C between
2030 and 2052.
Why is 1.5 degrees celsius so important?
Scientists tell us that the global temperature rise must be kept below 1.5°C to avoid
the worst impacts of climate change. Even a rise of above just 2 degrees would
have catastrophic consequences.
The 1.5°C target could2:
 Prevent small island states and coastal areas and cities from being swallowed
by the ocean. (Sea levels are expected to rise 10cm higher this century under
2°C of warming. That could expose an extra 10 million people to impacts like
flooding, and saltwater getting into their fields and drinking-water).
 Help millions of people avoid the disasters of extreme weather, such as
drought, hurricanes, flooding and wildfires.
 Limit the chances of an ice-free Arctic in the Summer. A rise of 2°C would
virtually wipe out coral reefs, compared to a 70-90% decline at 1.5°C.
 Stop loss of biodiversity: out of 105,000 species studied, the rate doubles
between 1.5 and 2°C of warming.
 An estimated 1.5 - 2.5 million square kilometres more permafrost would thaw
this century with 2°C of warming, compared to 1.5°C (that’s the equivalent to
the size of Mexico). Thawing permafrost also releases methane, a toxic
greenhouse gas, and the vicious circle continues.
How hot can it get?
A leading scientist at Carnegie Institute for Science, Dr Ken Caldeira, says that if
emissions continue without check as they have been, “there is a 93% chance that
global warming will exceed 4 degrees celsius by the end of this century”. The
IPCC’s ‘worse-case scenario’ even goes as far to say that 5°C could be reached.
Which really is game over for planet Earth as we know it.
What are the effects of global climate change?
Mother Earth has seen plenty of fluctuations between tropical climates and ice ages
throughout her 4.5-billion-year history. But Earth’s average temperature is now
rising unnaturally. There are serious environmental and social knock-on effects –
including changing weather patterns, melting ice caps, rising sea levels and mass
migration. The higher the temperature increase, the worse the impact on the planet.
All this is bad news. But we must remember, Earth will survive, as it always has.
The physical impacts mentioned above only seriously affect everyone living on the
Earth, not the Earth itself. It’s humans (and animals) who can’t adapt quickly
enough. Mother Earth will still be turning long after we’ve caused our own
extinction. A sobering thought.
Health risks
The 4 pillars of good health are clean air, safe drinking water, nutritious food and
shelter. All of these are affected by climate change, as well as causing rising
infection rates from diseases and viruses:
 Spread of pests and diseases – deforestation creates favourable conditions for
mosquitoes, so malaria, dengue fever and zika are on the rise. For example, in
Ethiopia, areas troubled by malaria have grown since the climate has warmed
up. 40 years ago, you wouldn’t find a single case of malaria in the highlands.
But, today, outbreaks there are common. This is because climate change has
made it hotter at night, allowing malaria-infected mosquitoes to live at altitudes
where they couldn’t survive before.
 The risk of pandemics such as Covid-19 and bird flu is much higher, due to
wild places being destroyed for farming and trade. And that brings humans into
contact with unknown dangerous microbes.
 Lack of fresh, clean water – caused by droughts. And ironically, heavy
rainfall can cause cholera and diarrhoea outbreaks, due to water sources getting
contaminated.
 Reduced food supply/agricultural yields – extreme weather destroys crops.
This leads to a huge impact on the global food supply, leading to malnutrition
and even starvation. For example, parts of Africa are facing long droughts that
damage food crops. In Zimbabwe, for several years, the rainy season has been
getting later and shorter, ruining the traditional farming cycle. In 2019, the
harvest was catastrophic for the second year running, with up to 70% of crops
lost. The World Food Programme says that 60% of Zimbabwe's 15 million
people are now in danger of going hungry.
 Lack of shelter – caused by storms, hurricanes and droughts. For example,
there are over a million displaced climate refugees in Somalia, forced from
their homes by drought in the past few years. “Many remain in a protracted
state of displacement,” says the United Nations Refugee Agency3.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates around 250,000 deaths will be
caused by climate-sensitive diseases between 2030 and 2050.
Impact on the ocean
Did you know that over 70 percent of the world’s surface is ocean? As explained
above, the ocean naturally absorbs the heat of the sun, and also some emissions.
But with the unnaturally-quick rise in carbon emissions and temperatures caused
by us, there are dangerous knock-on effects:
 Rising sea levels. With the speed Arctic ice is melting, by 2100 the ocean
could have risen one to four feet. This could mean catastrophic flooding in
lowlying and coastal areas, affecting 190 million people. Major cities such as New
York, Rio de Janeiro, Mumbai and Sydney would be affected.
 Rising ocean temperatures. Water expands as it warms, also contributing to
flooding. Warmer oceans also cause coral bleaching and irreversible damage to
underwater ecosystems.
 Ocean acidification. Scientists reckon around a quarter to a third of the carbon
we emit is absorbed by the ocean. This makes the ocean more acidic, causing a
devastating impact on marine life.
 Ocean warming causes red algae blooms, which kill fish and animals, and
can also cause illness in humans.
 Released toxic gas. Thawing ice in the Arctic releases vast quantities
of methane, a toxic GHG, adding to the greenhouse effect.
Danger to ecosystems
Due to climate change, wildlife tries to adapt in a few different ways. This includes
changing migration patterns and seasonal behaviour. In turn, these shifts have
effects through entire ecosystems, impacting biodiversity. It’s estimated that a
quarter of mammals, a fifth of reptiles, a sixth of birds, and a third of marine life
are heading towards total extinction.
Take, for instance, the Asian elephant. Lower rainfall and higher temperatures are
damaging its habitat. There are a number of reasons why these elephants are
vulnerable to a changing climate. They’re sensitive to high temperatures.
They’re also prone to disease, so they’re easily affected by altered disease patterns
caused by the climate crisis. The plants they like to eat are also being driven out by
invasive species, which have taken over with changing conditions. The result?
Falling birth rates for a species already in danger of dying out.
Can we slow down climate change?
This is a critical decade for action on climate change. It's not too late. We have a
chance to take action and prevent the worst impacts of climate change. If we act
now, climate change can be slowed, or even paused – to an extent. Though even
this would require dramatic action everywhere, by everyone, right now.
It's also important to know how much damage is being done to the environment
through food waste. It creates 6 times the carbon emissions as global aviation! Find
out more about how food waste is damaging the environment and what we can do
to stop it in our new blog.
What is being done to combat climate change?
In 2015 in Paris, all 195 members of The United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change made the momentous agreement to keep global temperatures
well
below 2°C. By 2018, UN scientists revealed what a huge difference it would make
to keep temperatures at 1.5°C (see above).
Following the Paris Agreement, the United Kingdom became the first country to
commit to net zero by 2050. Then suddenly, in 2020, a flurry of countries followed
suit, including Japan, South Korea and most importantly, China. The world’s
biggest emitter of carbon dioxide now aims to hit peak carbon emissions by 2030
and be carbon neutral by 2060.
With the election of Joe Biden came a promise to reverse President Trump’s
withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and also be net zero by 2050. This means
the economies producing more than half of the global carbon emissions have
publicly made this critical pledge.
Because of these pivotal promises, fossil fuel is fast becoming a dirty word and
change is being seen the world over:
 Fossil fuel divestment (meaning the opposite of investing in fossil fuels)
 Legal cases being brought against fossil fuel companies/governments
 Renewable energy becoming cheaper than fossil fuels
 Businesses driving an innovative ‘circular’, rather than linear, economy
(stopping waste and keeping resources in use as long as possible)
 Veganism on the rise
Of course, the point is that climate change can’t be solved by just one person or
group
– everyone needs to take up the cause. Governments, businesses, investors and
individuals. So let’s change the way we live, move towards zero carbon living, and
encourage others to do the same.