Transfer functions and
modelling chain
DR. BALQIS MOHD REHAN
[email protected]
The concept of flood risk
Flood risks
(Risk metric as the
expectation of the risk over
a given time frame)
Sayers et al., 2015
What are the different elements tha
can be accounted in risk analysis?
Schmidt-Breton, 2018
4
Framework of flood risk
Flood Hazard
Hydrological
analysis
Flood risks
Hydraulic flow
(Risk metric as the Analysis
expectation of the risk over
Exposure
a given time frame)
People,
property,
agriculture
Vulnerability
Flood Risk
(Expectation of
the risk over a
given time frame)
Sayers et al., 2015
The process of flood risk analysis from the beginning until flood hazard mapping (Maranzoni et al., 2023)
6
Flood risk assessment modelling
chain
Hydrology
Hydraulic
Exposure
and
vulnerability
7
Typical flow of technical steps
Hydrology
Provide the magnitude Hydraulic
of flood generating
hazard. Provide flood extent, water depth
and velocity.
Exposure
Design rainfall.
1D river model as the boundary and
vulnerability
Rainfall to runoff. conditions.
Hydrology and climate A 2D model can be set up for the
characteristics. floodplain area to simulate the Provide information of
spread of water. elements at risk and their
Statistical analysis. values.
Parsimonius approach:
Depth-damage relationship as
Using a stage-discharge relationship to indicate the susceptibility
to identify flow that can cause harm. level of the exposed elements.
8
Hydrology information
• Event based or continuous based simulations.
• Typically, a flood event that governed by a design
storm is used to indicate the hazard. Usually based on
a rainfall (i.e., storm) event, and running a hydrological
model to come out with the peak runoff.
• Alternatively, a continuous hydrological simulation
from physical model can be applied. The continuous
simulations can incorporate climate change scenarios
that may influence the flows.
9
Hydrology information
• Essentially, what is aimed for from the
hydrology analysis is the relationship between
discharge and probability.
11
Hydraulic modelling
• There is a range of computational models and approaches available to generate
flood inundation (hence, flood extent).
– Hydraulic computation of flood propagation are widely classified as 1D or higher dimensional
approach.
– 1D modelling approach: assumption of steady flow typically using the manning equation
(Knight et al., 2010), or unsteady flow using the St. Venant equation (Horritt and Bates, 2002),
– Higher dimensional modelling approach:
• depth average velocity is incorporated (Horritt and Bates, 2002). computational cost is the major
drawback of 2-D models. May lead to long simulations.
• considers turbulence effects in the river system that can be solved using the Reynolds Averaged Navier
Stokes equation (RANS)
• Equations involved in hydrodynamic modelling (regardless dimensions):
– Continuity equation (preservation of mass).
– momentum / motion equations (preservation of momentum).
– Energy equation (preservation of energy)
12
Hydrodynamic modelling
13
Hydrodynamic modelling
Arrighi et al., 2018
14
Flood inundation to flood exposure
and damage
Flood exposure (flooded area )
Flood inundation to flood exposure
and damage
Step Activity Information/data need Reference / Output
tool
1 Overlay flood inundation/hazard − Flood inundation map (generated from GIS tool
map of a return period with land hydrodynamic simulation and GIS map integration)
use map using GIS processing − Land use map with 9 land use categories
− Set consistent pixel size for both shapefile layers
(recommended 1 hectare).
− Overlay shapefile layers of flood inundation/hazard
and land use type.
− Establish ID for each pixel inundated by flood
(attributes flood depth).
2 Define land use categories − Damage equation for 9 land use categories: (1) DID (2023) 1) Exposed properties
exposed to flood residential, (2) commercial and industry, (3) public to floods (by unit of
inundation/hazard. institution and buildings (5 different types), (4) properties)
Infrastructure and utility, (5) transportation (2 2) Exposed population
categories), (6) mixed land use, (7) aquaculture, (8) to floods.
livestock (4 categories), and (9) Crops (9 categories).
3) Exposed protected
− Identify unit damage rates and damage factors. area to flooding.
3 Calculate damage per pixel. − From step 1 and 2. GIS
Option: − Damage is computed using appropriate equations processing
(1) compute using in-built GIS and necessary damage parameters, depending on tool or
calculation the land use category at each GIS ID. spreadsheet
(2) compute using spreadsheet
4 Compute the total damage of each − From step 3 GIS Total damage per
land use category and present the processing category land use at each
values. tool17
or return period.
spreadsheet
Flood exposure (flooded area )
2500
2ARI 5ARI 10ARI 20ARI
50ARI 100ARI 200ARI
2000
1500
hectare
1000
500
Land use components
19
Flood exposure (flooded area )
Hectare
Type of Land use / Return Period 2 5 10 20 50 100 200
Agriculture/Crops 326 561 813 1053 1513 1889 2199
Aquaculture 10
Institution/Public Building 1 2 3 7
Commercial 2 4 5
Forest 170 226 279 314 373 426 475
Industry 1 3
Infrastructure and Utilities 16 17 20 20 22 35 51
Meadow 5 10 14 21 30 54 95
Residential 1 12 33 39 66 114 156
Transportation 17 31 43 61 75
Water Bodies 100 114 137 142 161 184 204
Grand Total 618 940 1313 1621 2212 2771 3280
20
Flood exposed area for a range of
flood scenarios
Findings:
• Some of the key findings from the exercise:
• The most exposed land use component of the catchment to
flooding across all the flood scenarios is agriculture/crops
area, followed by forest, meadow, and water bodies.
• Residential and transportation land uses are also exposed
to flooding and require attention.
• Location of the most exposed area to flooding is
concentrated in the mid-stream of Sg. Pontian.
• Location of residential area, infrastructure and utilities are
scattered around at the lower reach of the catchment and
not all nearby rivers.
21
Flood inundation to flood exposure
and damage
Step Activity Information/data need Reference / Output
tool
1 Overlay flood inundation/hazard − Flood inundation map (generated from GIS tool
map of a return period with land hydrodynamic simulation and GIS map integration)
use map using GIS processing − Land use map with 9 land use categories
− Set consistent pixel size for both shapefile layers
(recommended 1 hectare).
− Overlay shapefile layers of flood inundation/hazard
and land use type.
− Establish ID for each pixel inundated by flood
(attributes flood depth).
2 Define land use categories − Damage equation for 9 land use categories: (1) DID (2023) 1) Exposed properties
exposed to flood residential, (2) commercial and industry, (3) public to floods (by unit of
inundation/hazard. institution and buildings (5 different types), (4) properties)
Infrastructure and utility, (5) transportation (2 2) Exposed population
categories), (6) mixed land use, (7) aquaculture, (8) to floods.
livestock (4 categories), and (9) Crops (9 categories).
3) Exposed protected
− Identify unit damage rates and damage factors. area to flooding.
3 Calculate damage per pixel. − From step 1 and 2. GIS
Option: − Damage is computed using appropriate equations processing
(1) compute using in-built GIS and necessary damage parameters, depending on tool or
calculation the land use category at each GIS ID. spreadsheet
(2) compute using spreadsheet
4 Compute the total damage of each − From step 3 GIS Total damage per
land use category and present the processing category land use at each
values. tool22
or return period.
spreadsheet
Flood damage for a range of flood
scenarios
Flood damage (RM)
No. Type of Land use / Return Period
2 5 10 20 50 100 200
Agriculture/crops
Paddy 100,473 190,878 290,662 439,363 670,938 922,079 1,131,498
1
Palm Oil 75,696 116,532 163,842 212,646 320,214 417,822 501,486
Total agriculture/crops (RM) 176,169 307,410 454,504 652,009 991,152 1,339,901 1,632,984
Aquaculture
2
Total aquaculture (RM) 829,259
Institution/public building
Education - - - - - - 489,354
Health - - - 742,038 1,492,705 1,525,061 1,538,004
3
Instituition - - - - - 545,155 1,572,895
Religious - - - - - - 530,480
Total Institution/public building (RM) - - - 742,038 1,492,705 2,070,216 4,130,732
Commercial/Industry
Commercial - - - - 123,099 234101.8 378756.355
4
Industry - - - - - 12808.985 49614.086
Total Commercial/Industry (RM) 1,615,804 2,862,977 6,663,867
Infrastructure and Utilities
5
Total Infrastructure and utilities (RM) 8,000,881 8,803,019 10,758,486 11,078,248 12,484,381 19,163,852 27,371,758
Residential
6
Total residential (RM) 26,018 286,576 737,177 935,947 1,732,560 3,121,260 4,303,105
Transportation
7
Total transportation (RM) 5,183,472 9,466,057 13,581,601 19,616,370 24,815,502
Total (RM) 8,203,069 9,397,004 17,133,638 22,874,299 30,405,497 45,559,205 63,513,100
24
Flood damage for a range of flood
scenarios
30,000,000
2ARI 5ARI 10ARI
25,000,000
20ARI 50ARI 100ARI
20,000,000
Flood damage (RM)
200ARI
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
Land use components
25
Flood damage for a range of flood
scenarios
Findings:
• Some of the findings from the exercise:
• Infrastructure and utilities are the land use components in
the catchment that are projected to endure the highest
losses. This followed by the transportation sector in the
exposed area.
• Flood damage from agriculture and crops areas are similar
to the flood damage at residential areas, institutional
buildings and commercial and industry areas.
• Aquaculture is the least probable to experience flood
damage.
• There is no flood damage projected from livestock.
26
Transfer function as indications
• Transfer functions are used to link between hazard,
exposure and vulnerability in analytical way to produce
quantitative flood risk.
• There are a variety of ways to establish the link that
depends on the scope of work, intended study and
available resources.
• Two transfer functions that can be used are:
– Stage-discharge relationship
– Stage-damage relationship
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Stage-discharge relationship as a
transfer function
• Stage is used when one
takes a maximum water
level, hence the reference is
not the ground level, but a
datum. Stage can be
converted to depth by
subtracting the ground level
of receptors.
• A stage-discharge
relationship relates the
stage (meter above datum)
and discharge (m3/s).
31
Stage-discharge relationship as a
parsimonious transfer function
Rating Curve
700
• Using hydrologic approach, the stage-discharge
relationship is commonly developed based on
records of water level and corresponding 600
discharge.
500
• It can also be established using hydraulic 1999
simulation with input data of cross-section
Discharge (m3/s)
2000
400
dimensions, slope and roughness. 2001
2002
300
2006
• A best fit curve (most of the time it’s a parabolic 2007
shape) can be formed from the plots of water 200 2008
level and discharge. 2009
100
• A readily available stage-discharge relationship
(or curve function) can be used to obtain
discharge for a given stage or vice versa. 0
22 27 32 37
Stage (m)
32
Stage-damage and
stage-discharge relationship
• Stage-damage relationship relates the stage and cumulative damage. Sometimes
used to represent depth and damage
• Depending on how one characterized the receptors (e.g. building-level, area, etc),
damage can be quantified based on the depth for the given stage.
• Stage-discharge curve will change for different measures considered.
35
An example of parsimonious transfer
functions use for building-level risk
assessment
Example when a micro-scale assessment is applied
36
Example
40
TERIMA KASIH / THANK YOU
www.upm.edu.my
