VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY HO CHI MINH CITY

INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY

BA116IU – INTRODUCTION TO MACROECONOMICS - GROUP

06
GROUP PROJECT REPORT
SEMESTER 1 (2024-2025)

Topic: "Vietnam's Inflation (2005–2023): Trends, Impacts, and

Policy Responses"

LECTURER: MR. NGUYỄN BÁ TRUNG

STUDENT IMPLEMENTATION
Student’s ID Student’s Name Contribution
MAMAIU22082 Huỳnh Quốc Bảo 100%
BABAWE20266 Trương Ngọc Anh Kiệt 100%
BABAWE23073 Nguyễn Phương Nam 100%
MAMAIU22087 Huỳnh Thị Tuyết Nhi 100%
MAMAIU22072 Vũ Minh Tân 100%
MAMAIU22079 Nguyễn Thị Diễm Thuỳ 100%

HO CHI MINH CITY – 15/01/2024

 Table of Content
I. Introduction........................................................................................................................................3
1.1 Background:.................................................................................................................................3
1.2 Objectives of the Report:.............................................................................................................3
1.3 Overview.......................................................................................................................................3
II. Inflation Trends in Vietnam (2005–2023).......................................................................................4
2.1 Historical Analysis of Inflation...................................................................................................4
2.2 Reasons for Inflation Changes....................................................................................................4
III. Impact of Inflation on Key Economic Indicators.........................................................................5
3.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP):................................................................................................5
3.2 Exports and Imports:..................................................................................................................5
3.3 Investment:...................................................................................................................................5
3.4 Employment:................................................................................................................................6
3.5 Consumption:...............................................................................................................................6
IV. Vulnerable Sectors/Businesses due to Inflation............................................................................7
4.1 Identifying Vulnerable Sectors:..................................................................................................7
4.2 Analysis of Vulnerabilities:.........................................................................................................7
4.3 Case Study....................................................................................................................................8
V. Government Responses to Inflation................................................................................................8
5.1 Monetary Policies:.......................................................................................................................8
5.2 Fiscal Policies:..............................................................................................................................9
5.3 Additional Policy Tools:..............................................................................................................9
5.4 Evaluation of Government Policies:...........................................................................................9
VI. Policy Implications..........................................................................................................................9
6.1 2005-2008: Period of high inflation............................................................................................9
6.2 2009-2011: The period of Recovery after the Global Financial Crisis..................................10
6.3 2012-2016: Macroeconomic stability........................................................................................10
6.4 2017-2019: A period of rapid growth and inflation control...................................................10
6.5 2020-2023: The period of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic and economic recovery
...........................................................................................................................................................11
VII. Conclusion....................................................................................................................................11
7.1 Summary of Findings:...............................................................................................................11
7.2 Final Thoughts:..........................................................................................................................12
VIII. Reference.....................................................................................................................................12

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 I. Introduction
1.1 Background:
Between 2005 and 2023, Vietnam's economy underwent remarkable economic changes with a
high growth rate of 6–7% per year. Vietnam has had one of the top growing and most stable
economies in Southeast Asia. From 2010-2023, Vietnam has retained its fifth regional place sustaining
a GDP of some 433.3 billion USD in 2023. Since 2005, Vietnam's economy has shifted to become
more positive due to the change in economic structure, industrialization, modernization, increase
production export and eventually integrate into the world economy. However, during this period,
Vietnam has experienced many global disruptions such as the financial crisis (2008-2009) -
Disruption of the global trade and financial system leading to the impact on Vietnam's export finance
and the Covid-19 pandemic (2019-2021) - Causing an economic recession leading to challenges in
Vietnam's economic recovery. In addition, the country also has to face uneven development between
sectors and, in particular, increasing inflationary pressure.

Economic development is another vital factor globally. Inflation is a significant factor since
the economy of Vietnam flies and drives with inflation awareness. Inflationary trends typically come
in crisis' times and after, strongly affecting Vietnam's purchasing power as well as investment and
economic policies. In 2008-2009 when there was a financial crisis, inflation was high, foreign
investments were low while trade was disrupted. Likewise, as the Covid pandemic has stalled the
supply chain, and goods have swelled substantially. By using trend analysis, and finding the root of
the core inflation, we are able to stabilize the economy which can help us find a better policy that
eliminates the problem.

1.2 Objectives of the Report:

This report aims to take a closer look at the impact of Vietnam's inflation-infused boom on the
country's economic development and outlook. The primary objectives include: Identify the trend,
causes and effects of inflation in Vietnam from 2005-2023. Evaluate Vietnam's GDP growth rate,
unemployment rate, spending and exchange rate. Spot sectors at the mercy of inflation Evaluate the
Government’s response through policies to curb inflation Suggest strategies that can be implemented
to combat inflation before it occurs and some of its damaging effects.

1.3 Overview
This report is structured to provide a detailed analysis of Vietnam's inflation dynamics and
their implications. The main sections are as follows:
- Part II: A detailed analysis of historical inflation trends in Vietnam from 2005 to 2023,
considering both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors.
- Part III: An assessment of the impact of inflation on key economic indicators such as GDP
growth, employment and consumer behaviour.
- Part IV: Identification of sectors and businesses most vulnerable to inflation.
- Part V: An assessment of government responses to inflation, focusing on monetary and fiscal
policies, and their effectiveness.
- Part VI: Strategic policy implications for both government and businesses to effectively
address and manage inflation.

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 II. Inflation Trends in Vietnam (2005–2023)

2.1 Historical Analysis of Inflation

Vietnam has experienced notable fluctuations in inflation from 2005 to 2023, influenced by
various domestic and external factors. In the early years of this period, inflation remained relatively
low, with rates around 8-9% in 2005 and 2006, thanks to proactive government policies promoting
economic reforms. However, significant inflation spikes occurred in 2008, driven by soaring global
oil prices and food costs, resulting in an inflation rate of approximately 23.02%. This marked one of
the highest inflation peaks in Vietnam's recent history, exacerbated by the global financial crisis that
year.
In order to assist stabilize inflation, the government responded by implementing fiscal
restraint and monetary tightening. Due in major part to currency devaluations, rising prices for
necessities, and outside economic forces, the economy had another upswing in 2011 with inflation
reaching 18.58%. On the other hand, thanks to successful economic measures and the global
economic recovery, Vietnam was able to maintain a reasonably constant inflation rate of between 4–
5% between 2013 and 2016.
However, inflation began to rise again in 2019, reaching about 2.8%, primarily due to
increases in food prices and consumer goods amid trade tensions. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020
initially suppressed inflation to 3.23%, reflecting decreased demand resulting from lockdowns.
However, as the economy began to recover, rising supply chain costs and increased demand led to
inflationary pressures resuming in 2021 and 2022, with rates at 4.18% in 2022.
Current gauges for 2023 propose expansion rates drifting around 3.5%, affected by leftover
impacts from the widespread, continuous geopolitical pressures, and variances in product costs.

2.2 Reasons for Inflation Changes

A few interrelated variables underlie the changes in Vietnam's expansion over a long time. A
few interrelated variables underlie the changes in Vietnam's expansion over a long time. Financial
approaches have been instrumental; for occasion, government intercessions to control credit amid tall
swelling periods have made a difference to stabilize costs. Worldwide financial conditions, especially
the 2008 budgetary emergency and ensuing recuperation patterns, affected product costs, in this
manner influencing residential expansion.
The COVID-19 widespread significantly modified utilization designs and supply chains,
coming about in lower beginning swelling rates. In any case, as supply chain issues started to surface
in the midst of recuperating requests, swelling started to rise once more in consequent a long time. In
addition, geopolitical occasions, counting territorial pressures and exchange arrangements, have
affected financial specialist certainty and financial steadiness, contributing to inflationary instability.
Prove from reports by the Common Insights Office of Vietnam, the World Bank, and the IMF
outlines these swelling patterns, giving experiences into the basic causes and anticipating potential
future developments. By and large, the transaction between residential arrangement mediations,
worldwide financial conditions, and worldwide emergencies has formed Vietnam's swelling scene
essentially from 2005 to 2023. A number of interrelated factors are the basis for changes in Vietnam's
inflation over the years. Economic policies have played an important role; For example, government
intervention to control credit during periods of high inflation helped stabilize prices. Global economic
conditions, especially the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent recovery trend, have impacted
commodity prices, thereby affecting domestic inflation.The cause of the explosion of inflation in 2008
was due to previously strong credit growth and money supply. In addition, world food and fuel prices
also contribute to explosive inflation. In 2019, we were faced with covid 19, causing the economy to
be seriously affected, strongly impacting inflation in Vietnam in the following years.

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 III. Impact of Inflation on Key Economic Indicators

FIGURE 1

3.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP):

Since the global economic crisis broke out in 2008, Vietnam has been caught in a spiral of
slow growth as major export markets were affected and domestic purchasing power declined.
Throughout this time, GDP growth was consistently below 7% and kept falling, eventually hitting just
5.03% in 2012—less than two-thirds of its pre-crisis level.

3.2 Exports and Imports:

A bright spot in times when the economy faced difficulties due to the impact of international
factors is the export sector. This sector was almost unaffected during times when the world economy
fluctuated. Except for 2009, when it decreased by 9.7% compared to 2008 (due to the narrowing of
consumption of goods on the world market and the sharp decrease in prices of many goods),
Vietnam's export turnover increased in the following years. During the two years of COVID, exports
maintained their performance and were the growth driver for the entire economy.

3.3 Investment:
The good news is that, despite the many difficulties the world economy faced in 2008, the
amount of FDI committed to Vietnam still increased to a record high. According to the General
Statistics Office, in the first 11 months of 2008, 1,059 new FDI projects were registered with a
committed capital scale exceeding 60 billion USD. This is an extremely remarkable number, more
than three times greater than in 2007 and more than eight times greater than in 2005. FDI
disbursement in 2008 also set a record with 10.1 billion USD up to the end of November 2008, an
increase of 44.2% compared to the same period in 2007.

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3.4 Employment:
Regarding the employment situation, in the year of the global recession in 2008, the total
number of workers working in economic sectors increased slightly by 2% compared to 2007. The
unemployment rate of working-age workers in urban areas is estimated at 4.65%. Since then,
Vietnam's unemployment rate has tended to decrease gradually, fluctuating at 2%. However, by 2021,
the unemployment rate increased to 3.22% - the highest since 2009.

3.5 Consumption:

FIGURE 2

Before the economic crisis, the total retail sales of goods and services increased by 31%, but
when the export market was narrowed, economic growth decreased, and people's lives were difficult,
the growth rate of this indicator continuously decreased from 2010 to present, reflecting the
decreasing demand. In a recent business survey report, the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and
Industry (VCCI) also pointed out that the biggest difficulty for businesses at this time is no longer
interest rates but the consumption market.

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 IV. Vulnerable Sectors/Businesses due to Inflation
4.1 Identifying Vulnerable Sectors:
The Vietnamese economy saw many inflationary crises between 2005 and 2023, most notably
in 2008 and 2011, which hurt important industries including manufacturing, agriculture, and energy.
These industries rely on imports and are impacted by changes in world prices. During the 2008
financial crisis, when crude oil prices peaked at $147 per barrel, the energy industry was affected by
the skyrocketing global oil prices. According to peak oil groundbreaking like Matthew Simmons, the
surge signaled the start of an era of limited supply. Fuel prices rose as a result, raising manufacturing
costs across industries.

FIGURE 3

4.2 Analysis of Vulnerabilities:

Rising costs are reducing profit margins for the manufacturing sector, which mostly depends
on imported machinery and raw materials like steel, particularly for small and medium-sized
businesses (SMEs). Furthermore, Vietnam's exports are now more competitive due to growing
manufacturing costs, particularly in labor-intensive industries like textiles and footwear.

Rural residents have been particularly badly impacted by the battle in agriculture because of
the sharp rise in gasoline, fertilizer, and pesticide costs.

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 For instance, rice growers saw a dramatic rise in production costs during the 2011 conflict
breakout (18.6%). Farmers made less money even if average selling prices were higher because
middlemen kept the majority of the earnings. As labor expenses have been identified, declining
domestic demand has worsened these practices.

4.3 Case Study

For the case study of Vinatex, as an obvious illustration of how inflation impacted the
manufacturing sector during the 2008 global financial crisis, consider the top textile and apparel group
in Vietnam. Despite a 34% growth rate in 2007, the textile and apparel industry was still optimistic.
However, in March, April, and May 2008, the USD/VND exchange rate fluctuated erratically, and
there was a shortage of USD. As a result, textile and apparel businesses had to import materials at
high prices, but when they exported their goods to the State Bank using USD, they were given low
prices. Numerous businesses experienced significant losses. Lending interest rates were excessively
high throughout the first eight months of the year, which caused numerous expansion investment
projects to go incomplete or behind schedule.
Vietnam's inflation rate has risen to 23%, the highest level in over ten years, posing serious
hurdles for the industry. Imported raw resources including cotton, synthetic fibers, and dyes have
become much more expensive due to rising global oil costs and domestic inflation. Vinatex's profit
margins have been strained by this and increased energy and transportation expenses.
The global financial crisis has dealt the textile and clothing industries a second blow since
September. The US, Europe, and Japan—the three main markets for Vietnam's textile and apparel
industry—have all seen precipitous drops. Vinatex has found it difficult to remain competitive
because of growing labor expenses at home and intense competition from other nations that export
clothing, such as Bangladesh and India. The corporation has reduced its production goals and
concentrated on increasing operational efficiency by updating its equipment and optimizing its supply
chain in order to lessen these difficulties.

V. Government Responses to Inflation

Based on collected data, Vietnam experienced periods of significant inflationary pressure
from 2005 to 2023, including the financial crisis in 2008 as well as the post-COVID-19 economic
recovery, which were considered as the two most prominent events during this period. Additionally,
there were many reasons leading to inflation in this nation such as global economic fluctuations,
increases of domestic demand, or supply chain disruptions. To address these mentioned issues, the
government in Vietnam implemented a combination of monetary, fiscal, and structural measures in
order to control inflation rate and also maintain economic stability.

5.1 Monetary Policies:

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) executed the monetary policies, which played a crucial
role in resolving inflation. During 2008, since inflation surged to 23.1% (World Bank, 2023), the State
Bank of Vietnam (SBV) sharply tightened the money supply by raising the policy interest rate from
6.5% in 2007 to 11.5%. In addition, broad money growth, which had surged to 49.1% in 2007, was
curtailed to 20.7% in 2008 (Vietnam Ministry of Planning and Investment, 2023). In terms of foreign
exchange markets, the intervention of the SBV proposed to stabilize the Vietnamese currency by
mitigating its depreciation during times of significant external debt and trade imbalances. According
to a report of Asian Development Bank (2023), during the late 2000s, exchange rates in Vietnam were

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maintained at around 16,000 VND/USD that could prevent currency volatility from exacerbating
inflationary pressures.

5.2 Fiscal Policies:

To increase efficiency and reduce inflation’s social impact, the Vietnamese government
implemented a range of fiscal policies. During the 2008 inflation crisis, they decided to set targeted
subsidies for essential products such as food and fuel. Similarly, during the COVID-19 period, the
government also provided direct financial support to vulnerable groups through subsidies and
stimulus packages for workers and businesses, while also cutting taxes and deferring payments to ease
economic pressure (Vietnam Ministry of Finance, 2023). Additionally, the government reallocated
fiscal expenditure by cutting back on non-essential investments to prevent overheating the economy.
As a result, public consumption growth declined from 8.9% in 2007 to 7.5% in 2008 (Vietnam
General Statistics Office, 2023). Tax measures, including reductions in tariffs, were also introduced to
lower production costs and stabilize prices.

5.3 Additional Policy Tools:

Another operative method was structural modifications which assisted Vietnam to have a
better management of inflation in the long term. The government prioritized industrialization and
modernization, concentrating on the manufacturing structure, which constantly developed during this
period. As per figures provided in a report of World Bank (2023) industrial output registered a growth
rate of 11.9% in 2008, despite the global economic fluctuation .It is undeniable that more effective
and efficient supply chain management strategies and solutions that reduced transportation and
warehousing costs met the objectives of ensuring cost control and guaranteeing the flow of critical
materials.

5.4 Evaluation of Government Policies:

In general, the Vietnamese government has shown leadership and innovation in dealing with
inflation by employing a range of monetary approaches, fiscal measures and reforms. Taking firm
steps and monitoring the results of action taken regularly the government has not only contained
inflationary pressures but have also provided the platform for sustainable economic development.
Nevertheless, it goes without saying that the endemic policies to alter and improve these strategies
should be continued to guarantee long term economic resilience.

VI. Policy Implications

6.1 2005-2008: Period of high inflation

From 2005 to 2007, the government's economic policy prioritized high growth, achieving an
average GDP increase of over 8% per year, driven by significant investments in public works and
infrastructure. This period witnessed a significant increase in industrial production, with a notable rise
in the number of active enterprises and revenue. According to preliminary estimates, the number of
industrial enterprises actually operating at the beginning of 2005 increased by 27.5% compared to the
beginning of 2004; corresponding to a 12.6% increase in the number of workers; a 25.6% increase in
capital; and a revenue increase of over 30% compared to 2004. However, by 2008, inflation surged to
23%, mainly due to rising global oil and food prices, prompting the government to shift its focus from

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growth to macroeconomic stability, implementing measures such as tightening monetary policy,
controlling inflation, and stabilizing the prices of essential goods.

6.2 2009-2011: The period of Recovery after the Global Financial Crisis

In 2009, the economy faced many significant challenges, forcing the Government to issue
numerous resolutions to prevent recession and ensure social welfare. By 2010, continue implementing
measures to stabilize the macroeconomy, effectively executing The socio-economic development
plan, with a focus on and directly implemented through Resolution No. 03/NQ-CP dated January 15,
2010, and Resolution No. 18/NQ-CP dated April 6, 2010, by the Government, aimed at stabilizing the
macro-economy and effectively implementing the socio-economic development plan for 2010.
However, inflation surged to nearly 18.6% in 2011, forcing the Party, National Assembly, and
Government to prioritize controlling inflation and maintaining economic stability through proactive
and creative efforts from various sectors and localities.

6.3 2012-2016: Macroeconomic stability

Inflation decreased significantly from 9.1% (2012) to 0.6% (2015) thanks to prudent
monetary policy and price control. However, the banking system accumulated bad debts, and state-
owned enterprises operated inefficiently, putting significant pressure on the budget. Therefore, the
Government restructured the economy by establishing the Vietnam Asset Management Company
(VAMC) in 2013 to handle bad debts in the banking system. • Implement equitization and divestment
from non-essential sectors, enhance governance efficiency, review and postpone ineffective projects,
and focus on key projects and infrastructure connectivity. • Control inflation and stabilize the
macroeconomy, such as: The State Bank reducing credit growth, prioritizing money supply control.
Adjust public service prices (healthcare, education, electricity) gradually but with strict control. The
government implements support policies such as reducing corporate income tax and simplifying
administrative procedures. And intensifying the signing of free trade agreements (FTAs), notably the
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) signed in 2016.

6.4 2017-2019: A period of rapid growth and inflation control

Vietnam experienced an impressive average GDP growth rate of 6.8% per year, peaking at
7.08% in 2018, the highest in a decade, while keeping inflation below 4% thanks to the government's
effective policies. Important initiatives such as Resolution No. 19 (2017-2019) and Resolution No.
35/2016 have facilitated business operations by reducing administrative burdens and attracting
investment into high-tech and renewable energy sectors, with significant contributions from
companies like Samsung, LG, and Intel. Furthermore, infrastructure projects such as the North-South
Expressway and Long Thanh Airport, along with trade agreements like CPTPP and EVFTA, have
been established to enhance Vietnam's export capacity and promote digital transformation across
various industries.

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6.5 2020-2023: The period of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic and
economic recovery

Fiscal policies:
 Economic recovery (2022-2023): 350 trillion VND to support businesses, workers, and invest
in infrastructure.
 Tax reduction: Reducing VAT to 8% and extending tax deadlines for businesses affected by
Covid-19.
Monetary policies:
 Lower interest rates (2020-2021): Reduce policy interest rates to stimulate credit demand and
support liquidity.
 Credit control: Maintain reasonable credit growth (12-14% per year).
 Exchange rate stability: Manage the VND exchange rate flexibly.
 Support for businesses and workers:
 Direct support: Providing financial assistance to workers and households affected by
Covid-19.
 Business restructuring: Special support for the tourism, aviation, and service sectors.
 Digital transformation and innovation: Promoting digital transformation: Applying
technology in e-commerce, online education, cashless payments.
 Promoting public investment: Increase disbursement: Disbursement of public investment
capital reached a new high, focusing on transportation and renewable energy (over 95% of the
2022 plan).
 International integration:
 Developing FTAs: Implementing free trade agreements (CPTPP, EVFTA, RCEP) to
boost export growth.
 High exports: Exports in 2022 reached 372 billion USD and maintained a trade surplus.

VII. Conclusion
7.1 Summary of Findings:
During the period 2005-2023, Vietnam's economy faced many challenges but quickly
overcame the crisis and recovered from difficulties and limitations. After the 2008 financial crisis and
the recovery process after the covid pandemic, it was shown that inflation plays an important role in
the analysis of the country's economic structure. Research shows that when inflation peaked, it left
serious consequences not only for the growth of national GDP, trade, investment, employment and
consumption but also interrupted the agricultural sectors. and domestic energy.
Faced with severe inflationary pressure, the Government introduced short-term measures such
as monetary and fiscal reform strategies to boost the economy until it gradually stabilized and used
another operative method was structural modifications which assisted Vietnam to have a better
management of inflation in the long term. Thanks to prudent measures such as interest rate changes,
public spending orientation and targeted subsidies, the negative impact caused by inflation has been
somewhat reduced. These policies have shown that they have been effective in the period 2012-2016
when inflation decreased sharply to only 0.6% in 2015 and GDP grew impressively from 2017-2019
(6.8% per year) when international trade agreements were added to attract foreign investors such as
Samsung, LG, Ndivia, ... Moreover, the Government is also flexible in reducing taxes and interest
rates to help Vietnam's economy not collapse after the Covid pandemic. After two decades, inflation
has always been a difficult problem for Vietnam's economy. However, the Government has shown its

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adaptability and strategic vision in the face of domestic and foreign problems, helping Vietnam
stabilize and develop steadily despite periods of financial crisis. global and the Covid pandemic.

7.2 Final Thoughts:

The Government has shown its adaptability and strategic vision in the face of domestic and
foreign problems, helping Vietnam stabilize and develop steadily despite periods of financial crisis.
global and the Covid pandemic.

VIII. Reference
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