13.

7 • Probability 1299

43. Find and graph such 44. Find and graph such
that is the sum of the that is the sum of the
first four terms of the first five terms of the
expansion. expansion.

Extensions

45. In the expansion of each term has the 46. In the expansion of
the coefficient of
form , where successively takes on
is the same as the
coefficient of which other
the value If what is
term?
the corresponding term?

47. Consider the expansion of 48. Find 49. Which expression cannot
What is the be expanded using the
and write the answer as a Binomial Theorem?
exponent of in the
binomial coefficient in the Explain.
term?
form Prove it.
•
Hint: Use the fact that, for •
any integer such that •
•

13.7 Probability
Learning Objectives
In this section, you will:
Construct probability models.
Compute probabilities of equally likely outcomes.
Compute probabilities of the union of two events.
Use the complement rule to find probabilities.
Compute probability using counting theory.

1
Figure 1 An example of a “spaghetti model,” which can be used to predict possible paths of a tropical storm.
1300 13 • Sequences, Probability, and Counting Theory

Residents of the Southeastern United States are all too familiar with charts, known as spaghetti models, such as the one
in Figure 1. They combine a collection of weather data to predict the most likely path of a hurricane. Each colored line
represents one possible path. The group of squiggly lines can begin to resemble strands of spaghetti, hence the name.
In this section, we will investigate methods for making these types of predictions.

Constructing Probability Models

Suppose we roll a six-sided number cube. Rolling a number cube is an example of an experiment, or an activity with an
observable result. The numbers on the cube are possible results, or outcomes, of this experiment. The set of all possible
outcomes of an experiment is called the sample space of the experiment. The sample space for this experiment is
An event is any subset of a sample space.

The likelihood of an event is known as probability. The probability of an event is a number that always satisfies
where 0 indicates an impossible event and 1 indicates a certain event. A probability model is a mathematical
description of an experiment listing all possible outcomes and their associated probabilities. For instance, if there is a 1%
chance of winning a raffle and a 99% chance of losing the raffle, a probability model would look much like Table 1.

Outcome Probability

Winning the raffle 1%

Losing the raffle 99%

Table 1

The sum of the probabilities listed in a probability model must equal 1, or 100%.

...
HOW TO

Given a probability event where each event is equally likely, construct a probability model.

1. Identify every outcome.

2. Determine the total number of possible outcomes.
3. Compare each outcome to the total number of possible outcomes.

EXAMPLE 1

Constructing a Probability Model

Construct a probability model for rolling a single, fair die, with the event being the number shown on the die.

Solution
Begin by making a list of all possible outcomes for the experiment. The possible outcomes are the numbers that can be
rolled: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. There are six possible outcomes that make up the sample space.

Assign probabilities to each outcome in the sample space by determining a ratio of the outcome to the number of
possible outcomes. There is one of each of the six numbers on the cube, and there is no reason to think that any
particular face is more likely to show up than any other one, so the probability of rolling any number is

Outcome Roll of 1 Roll of 2 Roll of 3 Roll of 4 Roll of 5 Roll of 6

Probability

Table 2

1 The figure is for illustrative purposes only and does not model any particular storm.

Access for free at [Link]

 13.7 • Probability 1301

Q&A Do probabilities always have to be expressed as fractions?

No. Probabilities can be expressed as fractions, decimals, or percents. Probability must always be a
number between 0 and 1, inclusive of 0 and 1.

TRY IT #1 Construct a probability model for tossing a fair coin.

Computing Probabilities of Equally Likely Outcomes

Let be a sample space for an experiment. When investigating probability, an event is any subset of When the
outcomes of an experiment are all equally likely, we can find the probability of an event by dividing the number of
outcomes in the event by the total number of outcomes in Suppose a number cube is rolled, and we are interested in
finding the probability of the event “rolling a number less than or equal to 4.” There are 4 possible outcomes in the
event and 6 possible outcomes in so the probability of the event is

Computing the Probability of an Event with Equally Likely Outcomes

The probability of an event in an experiment with sample space with equally likely outcomes is given by

is a subset of so it is always true that

EXAMPLE 2

Computing the Probability of an Event with Equally Likely Outcomes

A six-sided number cube is rolled. Find the probability of rolling an odd number.

Solution
The event “rolling an odd number” contains three outcomes. There are 6 equally likely outcomes in the sample space.
Divide to find the probability of the event.

TRY IT #2 A number cube is rolled. Find the probability of rolling a number greater than 2.

Computing the Probability of the Union of Two Events

We are often interested in finding the probability that one of multiple events occurs. Suppose we are playing a card
game, and we will win if the next card drawn is either a heart or a king. We would be interested in finding the probability
of the next card being a heart or a king. The union of two events is the event that occurs if
either or both events occur.

Suppose the spinner in Figure 2 is spun. We want to find the probability of spinning orange or spinning a
1302 13 • Sequences, Probability, and Counting Theory

Figure 2

There are a total of 6 sections, and 3 of them are orange. So the probability of spinning orange is There are a
total of 6 sections, and 2 of them have a So the probability of spinning a is If we added these two
probabilities, we would be counting the sector that is both orange and a twice. To find the probability of spinning an
orange or a we need to subtract the probability that the sector is both orange and has a

The probability of spinning orange or a is

Probability of the Union of Two Events

The probability of the union of two events and (written ) equals the sum of the probability of and the
probability of minus the probability of and occurring together which is called the intersection of and and
is written as ).

EXAMPLE 3

Computing the Probability of the Union of Two Events

A card is drawn from a standard deck. Find the probability of drawing a heart or a 7.

Solution
A standard deck contains an equal number of hearts, diamonds, clubs, and spades. So the probability of drawing a heart
is There are four 7s in a standard deck, and there are a total of 52 cards. So the probability of drawing a 7 is

The only card in the deck that is both a heart and a 7 is the 7 of hearts, so the probability of drawing both a heart and a 7
is Substitute into the formula.

The probability of drawing a heart or a 7 is

TRY IT #3 A card is drawn from a standard deck. Find the probability of drawing a red card or an ace.

Computing the Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events

Suppose the spinner in Figure 2 is spun again, but this time we are interested in the probability of spinning an orange or
a There are no sectors that are both orange and contain a so these two events have no outcomes in common.
Events are said to be mutually exclusive events when they have no outcomes in common. Because there is no overlap,
there is nothing to subtract, so the general formula is

Access for free at [Link]

 13.7 • Probability 1303

Notice that with mutually exclusive events, the intersection of and is the empty set. The probability of spinning an
orange is and the probability of spinning a is We can find the probability of spinning an orange or a simply
by adding the two probabilities.

The probability of spinning an orange or a is

Probability of the Union of Mutually Exclusive Events

The probability of the union of two mutually exclusive events is given by

...
HOW TO

Given a set of events, compute the probability of the union of mutually exclusive events.

1. Determine the total number of outcomes for the first event.

2. Find the probability of the first event.
3. Determine the total number of outcomes for the second event.
4. Find the probability of the second event.
5. Add the probabilities.

EXAMPLE 4

Computing the Probability of the Union of Mutually Exclusive Events

A card is drawn from a standard deck. Find the probability of drawing a heart or a spade.

Solution
The events “drawing a heart” and “drawing a spade” are mutually exclusive because they cannot occur at the same
time. The probability of drawing a heart is and the probability of drawing a spade is also so the probability of
drawing a heart or a spade is

TRY IT #4 A card is drawn from a standard deck. Find the probability of drawing an ace or a king.

Using the Complement Rule to Compute Probabilities

We have discussed how to calculate the probability that an event will happen. Sometimes, we are interested in finding
the probability that an event will not happen. The complement of an event denoted is the set of outcomes in the
sample space that are not in For example, suppose we are interested in the probability that a horse will lose a race. If
event is the horse winning the race, then the complement of event is the horse losing the race.

To find the probability that the horse loses the race, we need to use the fact that the sum of all probabilities in a
probability model must be 1.

The probability of the horse winning added to the probability of the horse losing must be equal to 1. Therefore, if the
probability of the horse winning the race is the probability of the horse losing the race is simply
1304 13 • Sequences, Probability, and Counting Theory

The Complement Rule

The probability that the complement of an event will occur is given by

EXAMPLE 5

Using the Complement Rule to Calculate Probabilities

Two six-sided number cubes are rolled.

ⓐ Find the probability that the sum of the numbers rolled is less than or equal to 3.
ⓑ Find the probability that the sum of the numbers rolled is greater than 3.
Solution
The first step is to identify the sample space, which consists of all the possible outcomes. There are two number cubes,
and each number cube has six possible outcomes. Using the Multiplication Principle, we find that there are or
total possible outcomes. So, for example, 1-1 represents a 1 rolled on each number cube.

Table 3

ⓐ We need to count the number of ways to roll a sum of 3 or less. These would include the following outcomes: 1-1,
1-2, and 2-1. So there are only three ways to roll a sum of 3 or less. The probability is

ⓑ Rather than listing all the possibilities, we can use the Complement Rule. Because we have already found the
probability of the complement of this event, we can simply subtract that probability from 1 to find the probability that
the sum of the numbers rolled is greater than 3.

TRY IT #5 Two number cubes are rolled. Use the Complement Rule to find the probability that the sum is
less than 10.

Computing Probability Using Counting Theory

Many interesting probability problems involve counting principles, permutations, and combinations. In these problems,
we will use permutations and combinations to find the number of elements in events and sample spaces. These

Access for free at [Link]

 13.7 • Probability 1305

problems can be complicated, but they can be made easier by breaking them down into smaller counting problems.

Assume, for example, that a store has 8 cellular phones and that 3 of those are defective. We might want to find the
probability that a couple purchasing 2 phones receives 2 phones that are not defective. To solve this problem, we need
to calculate all of the ways to select 2 phones that are not defective as well as all of the ways to select 2 phones. There
are 5 phones that are not defective, so there are ways to select 2 phones that are not defective. There are 8
phones, so there are ways to select 2 phones. The probability of selecting 2 phones that are not defective is:

EXAMPLE 6

Computing Probability Using Counting Theory

A child randomly selects 5 toys from a bin containing 3 bunnies, 5 dogs, and 6 bears.

ⓐ Find the probability that only bears are chosen. ⓑ Find the probability that 2 bears and 3 dogs are chosen.
ⓒ Find the probability that at least 2 dogs are chosen.
Solution
ⓐ We need to count the number of ways to choose only bears and the total number of possible ways to select 5
toys. There are 6 bears, so there are ways to choose 5 bears. There are 14 toys, so there are ways to
choose any 5 toys.

ⓑ We need to count the number of ways to choose 2 bears and 3 dogs and the total number of possible ways to
select 5 toys. There are 6 bears, so there are ways to choose 2 bears. There are 5 dogs, so there are
ways to choose 3 dogs. Since we are choosing both bears and dogs at the same time, we will use the Multiplication
Principle. There are ways to choose 2 bears and 3 dogs. We can use this result to find the probability.

ⓒ It is often easiest to solve “at least” problems using the Complement Rule. We will begin by finding the
probability that fewer than 2 dogs are chosen. If less than 2 dogs are chosen, then either no dogs could be chosen, or
1 dog could be chosen.
When no dogs are chosen, all 5 toys come from the 9 toys that are not dogs. There are ways to choose toys
from the 9 toys that are not dogs. Since there are 14 toys, there are ways to choose the 5 toys from all of the
toys.

If there is 1 dog chosen, then 4 toys must come from the 9 toys that are not dogs, and 1 must come from the 5 dogs.
Since we are choosing both dogs and other toys at the same time, we will use the Multiplication Principle. There are
ways to choose 1 dog and 1 other toy.

Because these events would not occur together and are therefore mutually exclusive, we add the probabilities to find
the probability that fewer than 2 dogs are chosen.

We then subtract that probability from 1 to find the probability that at least 2 dogs are chosen.
1306 13 • Sequences, Probability, and Counting Theory

TRY IT #6 A child randomly selects 3 gumballs from a container holding 4 purple gumballs, 8 yellow
gumballs, and 2 green gumballs.

ⓐ Find the probability that all 3 gumballs selected are purple.

ⓑ Find the probability that no yellow gumballs are selected.

ⓒ Find the probability that at least 1 yellow gumball is selected.

MEDIA

Access these online resources for additional instruction and practice with probability.

Introduction to Probability ([Link]

Determining Probability ([Link]

13.7 SECTION EXERCISES

Verbal

1. What term is used to 2. What is a sample space? 3. What is an experiment?

express the likelihood of an
event occurring? Are there
restrictions on its values? If
so, what are they? If not,
explain.

4. What is the difference 5. The union of two sets is

between events and defined as a set of elements
outcomes? Give an example that are present in at least
of both using the sample one of the sets. How is this
space of tossing a coin 50 similar to the definition used
times. for the union of two events
from a probability model?
How is it different?

Numeric

For the following exercises, use the spinner shown in Figure 3 to find the probabilities indicated.

Figure 3

6. Landing on red 7. Landing on a vowel 8. Not landing on blue

9. Landing on purple or a 10. Landing on blue or a vowel 11. Landing on green or blue
vowel

Access for free at [Link]

 13.7 • Probability 1307

12. Landing on yellow or a 13. Not landing on yellow or a

consonant consonant

For the following exercises, two coins are tossed.

14. What is the sample space? 15. Find the probability of 16. Find the probability of
tossing two heads. tossing exactly one tail.

17. Find the probability of

tossing at least one tail.

For the following exercises, four coins are tossed.

18. What is the sample space? 19. Find the probability of 20. Find the probability of
tossing exactly two heads. tossing exactly three
heads.

21. Find the probability of 22. Find the probability of 23. Find the probability of
tossing four heads or four tossing all tails. tossing not all tails.
tails.

24. Find the probability of 25. Find the probability of

tossing exactly two heads tossing either two heads or
or at least two tails. three heads.

For the following exercises, one card is drawn from a standard deck of cards. Find the probability of drawing the
following:

26. A club 27. A two 28. Six or seven

29. Red six 30. An ace or a diamond 31. A non-ace

32. A heart or a non-jack

For the following exercises, two dice are rolled, and the results are summed.

33. Construct a table showing the sample space of 34. Find the probability of rolling a sum of
outcomes and sums.

35. Find the probability of rolling at least one four or a 36. Find the probability of rolling an odd sum less
sum of than

37. Find the probability of rolling a sum greater than 38. Find the probability of
or equal to rolling a sum less than

39. Find the probability of 40. Find the probability of 41. Find the probability of
rolling a sum less than or rolling a sum between rolling a sum of or
greater than and inclusive.
1308 13 • Sequences, Probability, and Counting Theory

42. Find the probability of

rolling any sum other than
or

For the following exercises, a coin is tossed, and a card is pulled from a standard deck. Find the probability of the
following:

43. A head on the coin or a 44. A tail on the coin or red ace 45. A head on the coin or a
club face card

46. No aces

For the following exercises, use this scenario: a bag of M&Ms contains blue, brown, orange, yellow, red, and
green M&Ms. Reaching into the bag, a person grabs 5 M&Ms.

47. What is the probability of 48. What is the probability of 49. What is the probability of
getting all blue M&Ms? getting blue M&Ms? getting blue M&Ms?

50. What is the probability of

getting no brown M&Ms?

Extensions

Use the following scenario for the exercises that follow: In the game of Keno, a player starts by selecting numbers
from the numbers to After the player makes his selections, winning numbers are randomly selected from
numbers to A win occurs if the player has correctly selected or of the winning numbers. (Round all
answers to the nearest hundredth of a percent.)

51. What is the percent chance 52. What is the percent chance 53. What is the percent chance
that a player selects exactly that a player selects exactly that a player selects all 5
3 winning numbers? 4 winning numbers? winning numbers?

54. What is the percent chance 55. How much less is a player’s
of winning? chance of selecting 3
winning numbers than the
chance of selecting either 4
or 5 winning numbers?

Real-World Applications

Use this data for the exercises that follow: In 2013, there were roughly 317 million citizens in the United States, and
2
about 40 million were elderly (aged 65 and over).

56. If you meet a U.S. citizen, 57. If you meet five U.S. 58. If you meet five U.S.
what is the percent chance citizens, what is the citizens, what is the
that the person is elderly? percent chance that exactly percent chance that three
(Round to the nearest one is elderly? (Round to are elderly? (Round to the
tenth of a percent.) the nearest tenth of a nearest tenth of a percent.)
percent.)

2 United States Census Bureau. [Link]

Access for free at [Link]

 13.7 • Probability 1309

59. If you meet five U.S. 60. It is predicted that by 2030,

citizens, what is the one in five U.S. citizens will
percent chance that four be elderly. How much
are elderly? (Round to the greater will the chances of
nearest thousandth of a meeting an elderly person
percent.) be at that time? What
policy changes do you
foresee if these statistics
hold true?
1310 13 • Chapter Review

Chapter Review
Key Terms
Addition Principle if one event can occur in ways and a second event with no common outcomes can occur in
ways, then the first or second event can occur in ways
annuity an investment in which the purchaser makes a sequence of periodic, equal payments
arithmetic sequence a sequence in which the difference between any two consecutive terms is a constant
arithmetic series the sum of the terms in an arithmetic sequence
binomial coefficient the number of ways to choose r objects from n objects where order does not matter; equivalent

to denoted

binomial expansion the result of expanding by multiplying

Binomial Theorem a formula that can be used to expand any binomial
combination a selection of objects in which order does not matter
common difference the difference between any two consecutive terms in an arithmetic sequence
common ratio the ratio between any two consecutive terms in a geometric sequence
complement of an event the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not in the event
diverge a series is said to diverge if the sum is not a real number
event any subset of a sample space
experiment an activity with an observable result
explicit formula a formula that defines each term of a sequence in terms of its position in the sequence
finite sequence a function whose domain consists of a finite subset of the positive integers for some
positive integer
Fundamental Counting Principle if one event can occur in ways and a second event can occur in ways after the
first event has occurred, then the two events can occur in ways; also known as the Multiplication Principle
geometric sequence a sequence in which the ratio of a term to a previous term is a constant
geometric series the sum of the terms in a geometric sequence
index of summation in summation notation, the variable used in the explicit formula for the terms of a series and
written below the sigma with the lower limit of summation
infinite sequence a function whose domain is the set of positive integers
infinite series the sum of the terms in an infinite sequence
lower limit of summation the number used in the explicit formula to find the first term in a series
Multiplication Principle if one event can occur in ways and a second event can occur in ways after the first event
has occurred, then the two events can occur in ways; also known as the Fundamental Counting Principle
mutually exclusive events events that have no outcomes in common
n factorial the product of all the positive integers from 1 to
nth partial sum the sum of the first terms of a sequence
nth term of a sequence a formula for the general term of a sequence
outcomes the possible results of an experiment
permutation a selection of objects in which order matters
probability a number from 0 to 1 indicating the likelihood of an event
probability model a mathematical description of an experiment listing all possible outcomes and their associated
probabilities
recursive formula a formula that defines each term of a sequence using previous term(s)
sample space the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment
sequence a function whose domain is a subset of the positive integers
series the sum of the terms in a sequence
summation notation a notation for series using the Greek letter sigma; it includes an explicit formula and specifies
the first and last terms in the series
term a number in a sequence
union of two events the event that occurs if either or both events occur
upper limit of summation the number used in the explicit formula to find the last term in a series

Access for free at [Link]