Issue: 02

Aluminium: Key
Signals Shaping
India's Scrap Market
In Q2 FY26
—

Tracking trade shifts,

price trends, and policy cues in
India's aluminium scrap market

[Link]
 India's aluminium scrap market is navigating a phase of tight
global supply, shifting trade flows, and rising cost pressures.
With the country's strong reliance on imported scrap and a
relatively underdeveloped domestic recycling ecosystem,
recent changes in global tari policies, freight costs, and
environmental regulations have had a direct impact on
sourcing patterns and price dynamics. This mini report
captures key signals from Q1 FY26 and o ers a forward
looking view into how these factors may shape the market
trajectory in the upcoming quarter.

1. How has India's aluminium scrap trade evolved through FY25?

India’s economic momentum remained steady in FY25, supported by strong domestic

consumption even as global uncertainties persisted. Key risks such as capital outflows
by foreign investors and continued depreciation of the rupee posed pressure on trade.
Meanwhile, policy uncertainty around US trade—particularly under a possible second
Trump administration—has added to market unease.

On the upside, declining global freight rates supported a recovery in India’s aluminium
scrap import volumes. Scrap prices, however, rose due to US-imposed tari s,
particularly impacting high-volume suppliers.

Over the last five years, India’s aluminium scrap imports have steadily increased as
domestic scrap generation remains limited. The country’s aluminium recycling
ecosystem is still developing, with scrap usage far below global benchmarks.
In FY25, India’s aluminium scrap imports rose 3.8% to 1.83 million tonnes.

India: Aluminium scrap imports FY'25 Producers vs traders share in

imports FY'25
Producers Traders
+3.8%

1.72 1.76 1.83

1.66
1.37
40%

60%

FY'21 FY'22 FY'23 FY'24 FY'25

Source: BigMint | Qty in mnt

PG | 01 [Link]
 2. What defined the performance of the Indian scrap market in Q1 FY26?

The Indian aluminium scrap market witnessed significant volatility in Q1 FY26. This
was driven primarily by tightening global scrap supply, which reflected production cuts
in key recycling hubs, energy shortages, and stricter green regulations—particularly
in China. Logistical challenges added another layer of constraint to availability.

India: Secondary aluminium price trend

M-O-M M-O-M
Origin Assessments Delivery Location Attachment Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25
Change ( /t) Change (%)

LME LME Aluminium Global 99.90% 2,590 2,640 2,649 2,415 2,446 31 1.3%

UK Taint Tabor CFR Nahvasheva C/S 9-10% 1,845 1,875 1,970 1,910 1,970 60 3.1%

ME Taint Tabor Scrap CFR Nahvasheva Clean 2,215 2,235 2,290 2,270 2,300 30 1.3%

UK Zorba 95-5 CFR Nahvasheva 95-5 2,085 2,110 2,120 2,120 2,140 20 0.9%

US Tense CFR Nahvasheva 6-7% 1,835 1,870 1,940 1,910 1,965 55 2.9%

ME Tense Scrap CFR Nahvasheva 8-9% 1,802 1,821 1,850 1,830 1,895 65 3.6%

UK Wheel Scrap CFR Nahvasheva Clean 2,450 2,450 2,505 2,405 2,480 75 3.1%

India Tense Scrap (Purja) Exy Delhi NCR Clean ₹ 1,74,347 ₹ 1,76,900 ₹ 1,85,400 ₹ 1,86,500 ₹ 1,95,000 ₹ 8,500 4.6%

Source: BigMint | ME - Middle East

US tari s reshaped global trade routes. Countries like Canada and Mexico reduced
aluminium exports to the US, driving up domestic demand for scrap. The US—being the
largest global exporter of aluminium scrap—also reduced shipments to markets like
India. This led to higher global scrap prices and tighter supply in the Indian market.

India: Aluminium scrap imports countrywise in FY-25

United Kingdom
0.16 0.18 +13.0%
United States FY24 FY25
0.48 0.41 -14.9%
FY24 FY25
United Arab Emirates
0.12 0.14 +24.5%
FY24 FY25

Total
1.76 1.83 +3.8%
FY24 FY25 Others
Saudi Arabia
0.86 0.93 +8.0%
0.15 0.17 +14.3% FY24 FY25
FY24 FY25
Fig in mnt | Source: BigMint

Indian importers reported a marked decline in the availability of US-origin grades such
as Taint Tabor, Zorba, and Extrusions. In response, many turned to Middle Eastern
suppliers, but even these alternatives came at a premium. The sourcing shift highlights
growing exposure to regional price disparities and the need for diversification in
supplier geographies.

India: Aluminium scrap grade-wise imports from the US

Scrap grades Q1 FY'25 Q2 FY'25 Q3 FY'25 Q4 FY'25 Q1 FY'26 (till Apr)

Zorba 63,575 70,732 51,986 40,501 16,858

Taint Tabor 15,568 17,351 15,543 11,696 2,699

Tense 9,063 10,375 8,838 7,231 3,109

Extrusion (Tread) 6,885 5,466 5,735 5,044 1,063

Talk 4,715 5,657 6,944 2,367 265

Others 11,453 11,538 12,492 8,821 2,765

Source: BigMint | Qty in tonnes

PG | 02 [Link]
 3. How did aluminium scrap prices a ect ADC12 alloy prices in Q1 FY26?

India’s secondary aluminium market remained resilient through May 2025, buoyed
by persistent shortages in both domestic and imported scrap. The price of ADC12 alloy
ingot rose by INR 2,000 per tonne month-on-month, touching INR 228,000/t in Delhi
and INR 230,000/t in Chennai. At the same time, the scrap-to-alloy price spread
narrowed by about INR 5,000/t to INR 33,000–34,000/t—signalling stronger raw
material cost pressures.

BigMint's monthly ADC12 index (Automobile OEM)

ADC12 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25

Delhi NCR 215 209 209 208 210 217 226 228

Chennai 214 210 208 208 209 216 228 230

Source: BigMint | Payment terms: 30 days credit | Price in INR/Kg

Additionally, major Indian automaker has raised its ADC12 settlement prices by
INR 5,850/t m-o-m to INR 226,750/t for Jun'25, a 3-year peak, last seen in May'22.
The increase is driven by strong imported aluminium scrap prices and lower
aluminium alloy imports.

The automotive sector continued to underpin ADC12 demand. April 2025 retail vehicle
sales rose 7.6% m-o-m, with two-wheeler sales up 11.8%. OEMs such as Maruti Suzuki
posted stable performance, supporting consistent alloy consumption. Despite softer
LME aluminium prices, ADC12 rates remained firm owing to supply-side tightness and
higher scrap input costs.

Outlook: Will supply constraints sustain price strength through Q2 FY25?

Although global LME prices for aluminium have dipped slightly, scrap prices are
expected to stay elevated in the near term due to continued supply pressure. However,
demand from the alloy segment may ease slightly in Q2 FY26, which could help cool
prices modestly.

India’s dependence on imported scrap—exacerbated by limited domestic recovery

infrastructure—has triggered industry calls for the removal of the 2.5% scrap import duty.
This policy move could enhance availability and reduce cost pressures.

Globally, concerns over scrap outflows are prompting some countries to impose or
consider export restrictions. This has introduced new layers of uncertainty in international
scrap trade. Indian OEMs, meanwhile, are likely to keep pushing for cost optimization
as margins remain under pressure.

PG | 03 [Link]
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