Simulation and Crop Modelling

Introduction
 Simulation is defined as a technique for studying real world dynamical systems by
imitating their behaviour using a mathematical model of the system implemented
on a digital computer
 A simulation is the manipulation of a model in such a way that it operates on time
or space to compress it, thus enabling one to perceive the interactions that would
not otherwise be apparent because of their separation in time or space.
 Simulation can be viewed as a numerical technique for solving complicated
probability models, ordinary differential equation and partial differential equation,
analogously to the way in which we can use a computer to numerically evaluate
the integral of a complicated function
 A model is a schematic representation of the conception of a system or an act of
mimicry or a set of equations, which represents the behavior of a system. Also, a
model is “A representation of an object, system or idea in some form other than
that of the entity itself”. Its purpose is usually to aid in explaining, understanding
or improving performance of a system.
 Modeling and Simulation is a discipline for developing a level of understanding of the
interaction of the parts of a system, and of the system as a whole.
 A system is understood to be an entity which maintains its existence through the
interaction of its parts. A model is a simplified representation of the actual system
intended to promote understanding. Whether a model is a good model or not depends on
the extent to which it promotes understanding. Since all models are simplifications of
reality there is always a trade-off as to what level of detail is included in the model.
 If too little detail is included in the model one runs the risk 3 of missing relevant
interactions and the resultant model does not promote understanding. If too much detail is
included in the model the model may become overly complicated and actually preclude
the development of understanding.
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TYPES OF MODELS
Depending upon the purpose for which it is designed the models are classified into
different groups or types. Of them a few are:
a. Statistical models: These models express the relationship between yield or
yield components and weather parameters. In these models relationships are
measured in a system using statistical techniques. Example: Step down
regressions, correlation, etc.
b. Mechanistic models: These models explain not only the relationship between
weather parameters and yield, but also the mechanism of these models (explains
the relationship of influencing dependent variables). These models are based on
physical selection.
c. Deterministic models: These models estimate the exact value of the yield or
dependent variable. These models also have defined coefficients.
d. Stochastic models: A probability element is attached to each output. For each
set of inputs different outputs are given along with probabilities. These models
define yield or state of dependent variable at a given rate.
e. Dynamic models: Time is included as a variable. Both dependent and
independent variables are having values which remain constant over a given
period of time.
f. Static: Time is not included as a variable. Dependent and independent
variables having values remain constant over a given period of time. 5
g.Simulation models: Computer models, in general, are a mathematical
representation of a real world system. One of the main goals of crop simulation
models is to estimate agricultural production as a function of weather and soil
conditions as well as crop management. These models use one or more sets of
differential equations, and calculate both rate and state variables over time,
normally from planting until harvest maturity or final harvest.
h. Descriptive model: A descriptive model defines the behaviour of a system in a
simple manner. The model reflects little or none of the mechanisms that are the
causes of phenomena. But, consists of one or more mathematical equations. An
example of such an equation is the one derived from successively measured
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weights of a crop. The equation is helpful to determine quickly the weight of the
crop where no observation was made.
i. Explanatory model: This consists of quantitative description of the
mechanisms and processes that cause the behaviour of the system. To create this
model, a system is analyzed and its processes and mechanisms are quantified
separately. The model is built by integrating these descriptions for the entire
system. It contains descriptions of distinct processes such as leaf area expansion,
tiller production, etc. Crop growth is a consequence of these processes.

Model Development
 Model Calibration:
Calibration is the adjustment of the system parameters so that simulation
results reach a pre-determined level, usually that of an observation. In many
instances, even if a model is based on observed data, simulated values do not
exactly comply with the observed data and minor adjustments have to be made for
some parameters
 Model Validation
The model validation stage involves the confirmation that the calibrated
model closely represents the real situation. The procedure consists of a
comparison of simulated output and observed data. Ideally, all mechanistic
models should be validated.However, validation of all the components is not
possible due to lack of detailed datasets and the option of validating only the
determinant ones is adopted.

Steps of Modelling Process

The modeling process is cyclic and closely parallels the scientific method and the
software life cycle for the development of a major software project. The process is cyclic
because at any step we might return to an earlier stage to make revisions and continue the
process from that point. The steps of the modeling process are as follows:
 Analyze the problem We must first study the situation sufficiently to identify the
problem precisely and understand its fundamental questions clearly. At this stage,
we determine the problem’s objective and decide on the problem’s classification,
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such as deterministic or stochastic. Only with a clear, precise problem

identification can we translate the problem into mathematical symbols and
develop and solve the model.
 Formulate a model In this stage, we design the model, forming an abstraction of
the system we are modeling. Some of the tasks of this step are as follows:
 Gather data We collect relevant data to gain information about the
system’s behavior.
 Make simplifying assumptions and document them In formulating a
model we should attempt to be as simple as reasonably possible. Thus,
frequently we decide to simplify some of the factors and to ignore other
factors that do not seem as important. Most problems are entirely too
complex to consider every detail, and doing so would only make the
model impossible to solve or to run in a reasonable amount of time on a
computer. Moreover, factors often exist that do not appreciably affect
outcomes. Besides simplifying factors, we may decide to return to Step 1
to restrict further the problem under investigation.
 Determine variables and units We must determine and name the
variables. An independent variable is the variable on which others
depend. In many applications, time is an independent variable. The model
will try to explain the dependent variables. For example, in simulating the
trajectory of a ball, time is an independent variable; and the height and the
horizontal distance from the initial position are dependent variables
whose values depend on the time. To simplify the model, we may decide
to neglect some variables (such as air resistance), treat certain variables as
constants, or aggregate several variables into one. While deciding on the
variables, we must also establish their units, such as days as the unit for
time.
 Establish relationships among variables and submodels If possible,
we should draw a diagram of the model, breaking it into submodels and
indicating relationships among variables. To simplify the model, we may
assume that some of the relationships are simpler than they really are. For
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example, we might assume that two variables are related in a linear

manner instead of in a more complex way
 Determine equations and functions While establishing relationships
between variables, we determine equations and functions for these
variables. For example, we might decide that two variables are
proportional to each other, or we might establish that a known scientific
formula or equation applies to the model. Many computational science
models involve differential equations, or equations involving a derivative,
which we introduce in Module 2.3 on “Rate of Change.”
 Solve the model This stage implements the model. It is important not to jump to
this step before thoroughly understanding the problem and designing the model.
Otherwise, we might waste much time, which can be most frustrating. Some of
the techniques and tools that the solution might employ are algebra, calculus,
graphs, computer programs, and computer packages. Our solution might produce
an exact answer or might simulate the situation. If the model is too complex to
solve, we must return to Step 2 to make additional simplifying assumptions or to
Step 1 to reformulate the problem
 Verify and interpret the model’s solution Once we have a solution, we should
carefully examine the results to make sure that they make sense (verification) and
that the solution solves the original problem (validation) and is usable. The
process of verification determines if the solution works correctly, while the
process of validation establishes if the system satisfies the problem’s
requirements. Thus, verification concerns “solving the problem right,” and
validation concerns “solving the right problem.” Testing the solution to see if
predictions agree with real data is important for verification. We must be careful
to apply our model only in the appropriate ranges for the independent data. For
example, our model might be accurate for time periods of a few days but grossly
inaccurate when applied to time periods of several years. We should analyze the
model’s solution to determine its implications. If the model solution shows
weaknesses, we should return to Step 1 or 2 to determine if it is feasible to refine
the model. If so, we cycle back through the process. Hence, the cyclic modeling
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process is a trade-off between simplification and refinement. For refinement, we

may need to extend the scope of the problem in Step 1. In Step 2, while refining,
we often need to reconsider our simplifying assumptions, include more variables,
assume more complex relationships among the variables and submodels, and use
more sophisticated techniques.
 Report on the model Reporting on a model is important for its utility. Perhaps
the scientific report will be written for colleagues at a laboratory or will be
presented at a scientific conference. A report contains the following components,
which parallel the steps of the modeling process:
 Analysis of the problem Usually, assuming that the audience is
intelligent but not aware of the situation, we need to describe the
circumstances in which the problem arises. Then, we must clearly explain
the problem and the objectives of the study.
 Model design The amount of detail with which we explain the model
depends on the situation. In a comprehensive technical report, we can
incorporate much more detail than in a conference talk. For example, in
the former case, we often include the source code for our programs. In
either case, we should state the simplifying assumptions and the rationale
for employing them. Usually, we will present some of the data in tables or
graphs. Such figures should contain titles, sources, and labels for columns
and axes. Clearly labeled diagrams of the relationships among variables
and submodels are usually very helpful in understanding the model.
 Model solution In this section, we describe the techniques for solving the
problem and the solution. We should give as much detail as necessary for
the audience to understand the material without becoming mired in
technical minutia. For a written report, appendices may contain more
detail, such as source code of programs and additional information about
the solutions of equations.
 Results and conclusions Our report should include results,
interpretations, implications, recommendations, and conclusions of the
model’s solution. We may also include suggestions for future work.
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 Maintain the model: As the model’s solution is used, it may be necessary or

desirable to make corrections, improvements, or enhancements. In this case, the
modeler again cycles through the modeling process to develop a revised solution.

Modelling in Agricultural Systems

 Complexity of agricultural systems
Agricultural systems are characterized by having many organizational
levels. From the individual components within a single plant , through constituent
plants, to farms or a whole agricultural region or nation, lies a whole range of
agricultural systems. Since the core of agriculture is concerned with plants, the
level that is of main interest to the agricultural modeller is the plant. Reactions and
interactions at the level of tissues and organs are combined to form a picture of the
plant that is then extrapolated to the crop and their output.
 Models in agriculture
Agricultural models are mathematical equations that represent the
reactions that occur within the plant and the interactions between the plant and its
environment. Owing to the complexity of the system and the incomplete status of
present knowledge, it becomes impossible to completely represent the system in
mathematical terms and hence, agricultural models images of the reality . Unlike in
the fields of physics and engineering, universal models do not exist within the
agricultural sector. Models are built for specific purposes and the level of
complexity is accordingly adopted. Inevitably, different models are built for
different subsystems and several models may be built to simulate a particular crop
or a particular aspect of the production system.

Principles of Successful simulation

 Simplicity
 Learn from the past
 Create a conceptual model
 Build a prototype
 Push the user’s desire
 Model to data available
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 Separate data from software

 Trust your creative juices
 Fit universal constraints
 Distil your own principles

Model Uses
 Crop system management: to evaluate optimum management
production forcultural practice.
 Helps in evaluating weather risk.
 Investment decisions become qualitative
 These are resource conserving tools

Model Limitations
 Models and simulations can’t ever completely re-create real life situations
 Not every possible situation have been included in the model
 The equipment and software are expensive to purchase
 The result depends on how good the model is and how much data was
used tocreate it in the first place