Warming of the Eurasian Landmass Is Making the Arabian Sea More

Productive
Joaquim I. Goes et al.
Science 308, 545 (2005);
DOI: 10.1126/science.1106610

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 REPORTS
rienced by the Arabian Sea and, furthermore,
Warming of the Eurasian evidence that ascribes these changes to the
warming trend and the declining wintertime
Landmass Is Making the Arabian snow cover over the Eurasian landmass.
In 1997, the tropical Indian Ocean experi-
Sea More Productive enced a dipole mode (IOD) event: a pattern of
zonal (east-west) variability across the ocean,
Joaquim I. Goes,1* Prasad G. Thoppil,2. Helga do R Gomes,1 with anomalously low sea surface temperatures
John T. Fasullo3 (SSTs) off Sumatra, high temperatures in the
western Indian Ocean, and accompanying
The recent trend of declining winter and spring snow cover over Eurasia is wind and precipitation anomalies (13, 14).
causing a land-ocean thermal gradient that is particularly favorable to stronger This was also the year of one of the strongest
southwest (summer) monsoon winds. Since 1997, sea surface winds have been El NiDo events in recent history (15). Although
strengthening over the western Arabian Sea. This escalation in the intensity of uncertainty exists as to whether the dipole
summer monsoon winds, accompanied by enhanced upwelling and an increase structure was triggered remotely by the El
of more than 350% in average summertime phytoplankton biomass along the NiDo event in the tropical Pacific or generated
coast and over 300% offshore, raises the possibility that the current warming locally (16), SSTs along the entire western and
trend of the Eurasian landmass is making the Arabian Sea more productive. central parts of the Arabian Sea were warmer
than normal (17–19). Our analysis of a 7-year
The Arabian Sea_s seasonally reversing From 1994 to 1996, the multinational Joint record of satellite ocean color data (20) from
monsoons drive one of the most energetic Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) expeditions 1997, encompassing the period of the IOD
current systems in the world and the greatest to the Arabian Sea helped unravel several event, revealed that concentrations of chloro-
seasonal variability observed in any ocean linkages between physical forcing and carbon phyll a in the coastal region of the western
basin (1, 2). It is the only ocean basin that cycling in the northern Arabian Sea, but these Arabian Sea (47- to 55-E, 5- to 10-N) (fig. S1)
fully reverses its circulation on a semiannual were mostly on seasonal and shorter time scales were lower than normal during the summer
basis (3, 4), a phenomenon in which the (7, 11, 12). Here we present results of rapid upwelling season of 1997 (Fig. 1A). Although
Indian Ocean, the Eurasian continent, and and profound interannual changes being expe- satellite chlorophyll data are not available for
the Pacific Ocean play important roles (5). In
summer (June-September), the heating of the
Eurasian landmass results in low pressure A
over Asia, while high pressure prevails over
the Indian Ocean. The geostrophically bal-
anced airflow results in a strong topograph-
ically steered southwesterly wind and the
formation of a low-level atmospheric feature
called the Findlater Jet (6), which induces a
northeastward flow of the surface current,
causing strong coastal upwelling near the
coasts of Somalia, Yemen, and Oman (7).
In contrast, during the northeast monsoon B
(winter, November-February), the cooling of
the Northern Hemispheric landmass results
in high pressure over land and low pressure
over the Indian Ocean, which causes a re-
versal in the direction of the winds from
southwesterly to northeasterly (7). Because
the reversal of the monsoons has a major
influence on mixed-layer dynamics (8) and
on physical oceanographic processes that
facilitate the input of nutrients to the nor- C
mally nutrient-impoverished waters of the
Arabian Sea (9, 10), its importance for
phytoplankton growth and biogeochemical
processes is profound (11).

1
Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, West Booth-
bay Harbor, ME 04575, USA. 2Oceanography De-
partment, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA
93943, USA. 3Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic
Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309,
USA. Fig. 1. Annual trends of (A) satellite-derived chlorophyll a data; (B) Reynolds blended (R&S, 1-  1-)
*To whom correspondence should be addressed. SSTs; and TMI (0.25-  0.25-)–derived SSTs; and (C) wind stress curl values derived from NCEP-NCAR
E-mail: jgoes@[Link] reanalysis data (open histograms) and TMI-derived wind speed for the region off the coast of Somalia
.Present address: Department of Marine Science, (5- to 10-N and 47- to 55-E) in the western Arabian Sea. Positive wind stress curl values and lower
University of Southern Mississippi, Stennis Space SST values indicate upwelling, whereas negative wind stress curl values indicate downwelling.
Center, MS 39529, USA. M, March; J, June; S, September; D, December.

[Link] SCIENCE VOL 308 22 APRIL 2005 545

 REPORTS
the entire summer monsoon period of 1997 bilizes the water column, causing the mixed sequent summer, because a substantial fraction
because of the premature demise of the layer to shoal (26). Thus, although sea surface of the available solar energy during spring and
ADEOS-1 satellite (20), the low chlorophyll a winds showed a progressive year-by-year in- early summer goes toward melting the snow
concentrations are explainable given that sea crease after 1997, mixed layer depths during the and evaporating water from the wet soil rather
surface wind stress in May and June, the summer monsoon shallowed progressively over than toward heating the ground (30). Excessive
primary driver of upwelling during the summer the 7-year period (Fig. 2B). Increased water snowfall in the early part of winter also tends
monsoon in the western Arabian Sea, was column stability during the summer monsoon to reduce solar radiation heating in winter by
much weaker than normal (21). The timing of associated with a shallower mixed layer is par- increasing the surface albedo, resulting in
the onset and the intensities of sea surface ticularly crucial for retaining phytoplankton persistently colder temperatures over the land
winds are both critical to the development of in the euphotic layer, especially when overcast (31). Conversely, reduced snow cover over
the Findlater Jet, which in turn is responsible skies and insufficient light can limit phyto- Eurasia strengthens the spring and summer
for coastal divergent upwelling off the Somali plankton photosynthesis and growth (10, 11). land-sea thermal contrast and is considered to
coast and offshore Ekman forced upwelling off The summer monsoon winds are a coupled be responsible for the stronger southwest
the Omani continental shelf (3, 4). Coincident atmosphere-land-ocean phenomenon, whose monsoon winds and positive rainfall anomalies
with the IOD event of 1997, sea surface winds strength is significantly correlated with tropical over the subcontinent (32, 33).
(21) picked up only by June, almost a month SSTs and Eurasian snow cover anomalies on a Analysis of snow cover data (34) for the
later than in a normal year, followed by a year-to-year basis (27, 28). The intensification period beginning in 1997 revealed a progres-
peak in July that was short-lived. The impact of the winds across the Arabian Sea during the sive decline of winter and spring snow cover
on upwelling of the early collapse of the southwest monsoon is largely governed by the over the Eurasian landmass (Fig. 2C), which
monsoon winds in the coastal region is clearly land-sea thermal gradient that develops over is consistent with the mid-latitude continental
visible in the higher-than-normal SSTs (22) in the Arabian Sea in late spring and early warming trend reported in the Northern
June and July (Fig. 1B), an indicator of summer. Therefore, the extent of winter and Hemisphere (33). Since 1979, the decline in
weaker upwelling that year. spring snow cover over the Eurasian landmass snow cover has been particularly pronounced
In the time series record of chlorophyll a, and the latent heat released by the sea during over northern Eurasia poleward of 70-N, over
however, the most conspicuous observation spring have a major impact on this land-sea Western Europe, to the northeast of Russia,
was the consistent year-by-year increase in thermal gradient (29). In general, positive over southwest Asia, and over the northern
phytoplankton biomass over the 7-year period snow anomalies in winter and spring can give Indian Himalayan Tibetan Plateau region (fig.
(Fig. 1A). By the summer of 2003, chlorophyll rise to colder ground temperatures in the sub- S2). Of greatest relevance to the strength of the
a concentrations were 9350% higher than those
observed in the summer of 1997. The increase
in chlorophyll a was accompanied by a year- A
by-year decline in summertime SSTs and cy-
clonic wind stress curl values (Fig. 1C) (23),
both indicators of a progressive intensification
of upwelling along the coast of Somalia result-
ing from a progressive strengthening of sea
surface winds over the 7-year period (Fig. 1C).
Upwelling off Somalia is also associated with
the development of the Somali Current gyres,
such as in the Great Whirl, where the vorticity
balance forces an uplift of the thermocline to B
the left of the offshore flows (24, 25).
This year-by-year increase in chlorophyll a
concentrations was not confined to the coast
alone but was also observed over a wider area
of the western (52- to 57-E, 5-S to 10-N)
Arabian Sea (Fig. 2A). Outside the region of
coastal upwelling, chlorophyll a concentrations
in the summer of 2003 attained values that
were 9300% higher than those observed in the
summer of 1997. This increase in chlorophyll a C
was also accompanied by an intensification of
sea surface winds, in particular of the zonal
(east-to-west) component (Fig. 2A). It is clear
from the offshore observations that the influ-
ence of southwest monsoon winds on phyto-
plankton in the Arabian Sea is not through their
impact on coastal upwelling alone but also via
the ability of zonal winds to laterally advect
newly upwelled nutrient-rich waters to regions
away from the upwelling zone. When colder
waters are advected offshore, they cause a re-
Fig. 2. Annual trends of (A) satellite-derived chlorophyll a data (CHL) and zonal wind stress and (B)
duction in the latent heat flux to the atmosphere mixed layer depth (MLD) and Reynolds SSTs from the region (52- to 57-E, 5-S to 10-N) in the
and an increase in the net heat input into the western Arabian Sea. (C) Anomalies (departures from monthly means for the period between 1996
oceans. Increased heat flux into the ocean sta- and 2002) of Eurasian snow cover (ESC). The trend line shown in bold is a 14-point moving average.

546 22 APRIL 2005 VOL 308 SCIENCE [Link]

 REPORTS
southwest monsoon winds are the latter two biomass in the western Arabian Sea over the from the nadir. In addition, the influence of clouds has
been substantially reduced. To account for sensor deg-
regions, on account of their proximity to the past 7 years. The fact that disparate satellite- radation over time, the instrument is calibrated using
Arabian Sea. A plot of Eurasian snow cover derived and observational data sets of SSTs internal lamps, solar diffuser observations, and lunar
extent versus wind stress data (Fig. 3A) and and winds come together to fit into a physically images, as well as vicarious methods.
wind stress versus SST (Fig. 3B) for the period consistent scenario gives us a great deal of 21. The wind data used in this study come from two
sources: the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission
from late spring to midsummer (May-July) confidence in our results. Imager (TMI) derived monthly mean (0.25-  0.25-
suggests that the year-by-year decline in winter Our findings raise the intriguing possibility grid) and the monthly mean surface wind stresses
and spring snow cover over Eurasia is creating that the western as well as the central regions of (tx, t y) from the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Re-
conditions that are conducive to stronger winds the Arabian Sea could witness more wide- search (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis product, calculated
and lower summertime SSTs across the west- spread blooms of phytoplankton if the mid- according to E. Kalnay et al. (38).
ern Arabian Sea. By regressing SST against latitudinal continental warming trend and the 22. Monthly mean SSTs were obtained from two sources:
the optimally interpolated (1-  1- grid) Reynolds
satellite-derived chlorophyll a concentra- decline in winter snow cover over the Northern reanalysis product, which is a blend of Advanced High
tions over this region for the summer season Hemisphere continue. Although our findings Resolution Radiometer and Comprehensive Ocean
(Fig. 3C), we conclude that the escalating have an immediate and important bearing on Atmosphere Data Set observations [see (39)]; and
TMI, available from January 1998 onward. These data
strength of sea surface winds is largely regional fisheries, the implications of a more are processed by the Remote Sensing Systems
responsible for the increase in phytoplankton productive Arabian Sea go far beyond that; for algorithm and mapped to a 0.25-  0.25- grid.
example, to our planet_s climate. The Arabian 23. The curl of the wind stress is calculated as ¯t y/¯x –
Sea hosts a distinct, basin-wide oxygen mini- ¯t x/¯y, where t x and t y are the zonal and meridional
A wind stress, respectively.
0.2 mum zone between 150 and 1000 m (35–37), 24. G. L. Hitchcock, E. L. Ley, J. Masters, Deep-Sea Res. II
WIND STRESS (N M-2)

whose presence has a substantial impact on 47, 1605 (2000).

marine elemental cycles, in particular those 25. F. A. Schott, M. Dengler, R. Schoenefeldt, Prog.
0.15 Oceanogr. 53, 57 (2002).
linked to the production of climatically relevant 26. The mixed layer depth was taken as the depth at
trace gases (37). The changing productivity of which the temperature declined to 1-C below SST,
0.1 using Expandable Bathythermograph (XBT) data
the Arabian Sea could thus have far-reaching
optimally interpolated to a 5-  2- longitude-
consequences for the oxygen minimum zone, latitude grid from the Joint Environmental Data
0.05
whose existence is regulated by a balance Analysis Center (40).
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0 28. P. J. Webster et al., J. Geophys. Res. 103, 14451 (1998).
0 8 16 24 32 and oxygen consumption during the oxidation 29. H. F. Blanford, Proc. R. Soc. London 37, 3 (1884).
EURASIAN SNOW COVER (x106 KM2) of organic matter produced in the euphotic 30. T. P. Barnett, L. Dumenil, U. Schlese, E. Roekler, M.
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CHLOROPHYLL (MG M-3)

(special report) 10, 4 (2001). NNG04GM64G from NASA to J.I.G. and H.R.G. Funding
13. N. H. Saji, B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachandran, T. from the Maine Space Grants Consortium, USA, and the
Yamagata, Nature 401, 360 (1999). Takeda Foundation, Japan, to J.I.G. and H.R.G. and a
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Nature 401, 356 (1999). graduate School, Monterey, USA, are gratefully acknowl-
15. J. E. Overland, N. A. Bond, J. M. Adams, Fish. edged. The authors thank the Goddard Earth Sciences
Oceanogr. 10, 69 (2001). Data and Information Services Center/Distributed Active
0.3 16. T. M. Shinoda, A. Alexander, H. H. Hendon, J. Clim. 7, Archive Center, NASA, USA, and the Earth Observation
929 (2004). Research Center, NASDA, Japan, for ocean color data
17. J. M. Slingo, H. Annamalai, Mon. Weather Rev. 128, from SeaWiFS and OCTS, respectively; the Climate Diag-
1778 (1999). nostics Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad-
0.0 18. R. G. Murtugudde, J. P. McCreary, A. J. Busalacchi, J. ministration, USA, for the reanalysis data products; and
25 27 29 31 Geophys. Res. 105, 3295 (2000). the Remote Sensing Systems, NASA, USA, for the data
SST (°C) 19. T. G. Prasad, J. L. McClean, J. Geophys. Res. 109, from TMI. We are especially grateful to R. Armstrong and
C02019 (2004). M. Brodzik of the National Snow and Ice Data Center,
Fig. 3. Scatter plots of (A) resultant wind stress 20. Chlorophyll a data from November 1996 to June 1997 USA, for the Northern Hemisphere EASE-Grid snow cov-
and Eurasian snow cover for May to July; (B) are reprocessed (V4.1), Level 3–binned, ADEOS-1, er data; and to K. Banse of the School of Oceanography,
SSTs and resultant wind stress for May to July; Ocean Color Temperature Sensor (OCTS) monthly data University of Washington, USA, for helpful comments.
and (C) satellite-derived chlorophyll a data and obtainable from the Earth Observation Center, National
SSTs for May to September. Oceanographic Space Development Agency (NASDA) of Japan. For the Supporting Online Material
data are for the region (52- to 57-E, 5-S to period from September 1997 to April 2004, we used [Link]/cgi/content/full/308/5721/545/
reprocessed Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor DC1
10-N), and Eurasian snow cover is from the (SeaWiFS) (V4.1) Level 3, Global Area Coverage, month- Materials and Methods
Northern Hemisphere EASE grid. Linear least- ly images from the Distributed Active Archive Center of Figs. S1 and S2
squares fits to scatter plots yielded r2 values of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA, USA. These
0.84, 0.66, and 0.70 (P G 0.01) for (A), (B), and monthly binned products have been corrected for 21 October 2004; accepted 18 February 2005
(C), respectively. atmospheric light scattering and for sun angles differing 10.1126/science.1106610

[Link] SCIENCE VOL 308 22 APRIL 2005 547