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Updated Conditional Probability Assignment

The document provides an overview of conditional probability, defining it as the probability of an event given that another event has occurred, with key formulas and examples illustrating its application. It discusses properties such as the multiplication rule and Bayes' theorem, and highlights various real-world applications in fields like medicine, weather forecasting, and business analytics. The conclusion emphasizes the importance of mastering conditional probability for advanced studies in statistics and data science.

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58 views4 pages

Updated Conditional Probability Assignment

The document provides an overview of conditional probability, defining it as the probability of an event given that another event has occurred, with key formulas and examples illustrating its application. It discusses properties such as the multiplication rule and Bayes' theorem, and highlights various real-world applications in fields like medicine, weather forecasting, and business analytics. The conclusion emphasizes the importance of mastering conditional probability for advanced studies in statistics and data science.

Uploaded by

lovegupta9289
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Assignment on Conditional Probability

1. Introduction

Conditional probability refers to the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already

occurred. This concept is crucial in real-life situations where we gain additional information and need to

update our predictions accordingly. For instance, in medical diagnosis, knowing a person has a certain

symptom can affect the probability of having a specific disease.

2. Definition

The conditional probability of an event A given that event B has occurred is denoted by:

P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B), provided P(B) > 0

Where:

- P(A|B) is the conditional probability of A given B

- P(A and B) is the probability that both A and B happen

- P(B) is the probability that B happens

This formula helps in narrowing down the sample space to only those outcomes where B has occurred.

3. Example Problem

Example 1:

A box contains 3 red balls and 2 blue balls. One ball is drawn at random and not replaced. Then a second

ball is drawn. Find the probability that both balls are red.

Solution:
Assignment on Conditional Probability

Let A = first ball is red

Let B = second ball is red

P(A) = 3/5, P(B|A) = 2/4 = 1/2

P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B|A) = 3/5 × 1/2 = 3/10

So, the probability that both balls are red is 3/10.

Example 2:

A student has a 70% chance of passing mathematics and an 80% chance of passing English. If the

probability of passing both is 60%, what is the probability the student passes math given that they passed

English?

P(Math|English) = P(Math and English) / P(English) = 0.60 / 0.80 = 0.75

So, there's a 75% chance the student passed math given they passed English.

4. Properties of Conditional Probability

1. Multiplication Rule:

P(A and B) = P(B) × P(A|B)

2. Bayes' Theorem:

P(A|B) = [P(B|A) × P(A)] / P(B)

This theorem is especially useful when trying to find the reverse probability.
Assignment on Conditional Probability

3. Independent Events:

If A and B are independent, then:

P(A|B) = P(A) and P(B|A) = P(B)

Independence implies that one event occurring does not affect the probability of the other.

5. Visual Understanding

A Venn diagram can help visualize conditional probability. When conditioning on event B, we consider only

the area within B. The proportion of that area which overlaps with A gives P(A|B).

Also, probability trees are useful tools to represent sequential events and compute conditional probabilities

step-by-step.

6. Applications

- Medical testing: Estimating the probability of having a disease after a positive test result (e.g., COVID-19

testing).

- Weather forecasting: Probability of rain given humidity and temperature.

- Business analytics: Predicting customer purchases based on their past behavior.

- Sports: Predicting the win probability given current match conditions.

- Machine learning: Algorithms like Naive Bayes classifier are based on conditional probabilities.

7. Conclusion

Conditional probability is a foundational tool in statistics and real-world decision making. It allows us to refine

our estimates and make better predictions by incorporating relevant information. Mastery of this concept is

key to advanced studies in probability, data science, and logical reasoning.


Assignment on Conditional Probability

8. References

- Class textbook

- NCERT Mathematics Book

- Khan Academy

- Wikipedia: Conditional Probability

- Introduction to Probability by Sheldon Ross

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