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204 Distributions

This document is an exam paper for Mathematics A (H230, H240) provided by OCR, detailing instructions for candidates and various mathematical problems related to distributions, probability, and statistics. It includes sections for candidates to fill in their personal information and instructions on how to answer the questions. The paper consists of multiple questions covering topics such as random variables, probability distributions, and statistical analysis.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)

13 views129 pages

204 Distributions

Uploaded by

whitelert

We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.

Available Formats

Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Mathematics A (H230, H240)

204Distributions
exam builder
ocr
Please note that you may see slight differences between
this paper and the original.
Duration: Not set
Candidates answer on the Question paper.

OCR supplied materials:

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Candidate Candidate

forename surname

Centre number Candidate number

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES
• Write your name, centre number and candidate number in the boxes above. Please write clearly and in capital letters.
• Use black ink. HB pencil may be used for graphs and diagrams only.
• Answer all the questions, unless your teacher tells you otherwise.
• Read each question carefully. Make sure you know what you have to do before starting your answer.
• Where space is provided below the question, please write your answer there.
• You may use additional paper, or a specific Answer sheet if one is provided, but you must clearly show your candidate
number, centre number and question number(s).

INFORMATION FOR CANDIDATES

• The quality of written communication is assessed in questions marked with either a pencil or an asterisk. In History and
Geography a Quality of extended response question is marked with an asterisk, while a pencil is used for questions in
which Spelling, punctuation and grammar and the use of specialist terminology is assessed.
• The number of marks is given in brackets [ ] at the end of each question or part question.
• The total number of marks for this paper is 306.
• The total number of marks may take into account some 'either/or' question choices.

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1 It is known that 26% of adults in the UK use a certain app. A researcher selects a random sample of 5000 adults
in the UK. The random variable X is defined as the number of adults in the sample who use the app.

Given that P(X < n) < 0.025, calculate the largest possible value of n. [5]

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2(a) As part of a research project, the masses, m grams, of a random sample of 1000 pebbles from a certain beach
were recorded. The results are summarised in the table.

Mass (g) 50 ≤ m < 150 150 ≤ m < 200 200 ≤ m < 250 250 ≤ m < 350
Frequency 162 318 355 165

Calculate estimates of the mean and standard deviation of these masses. [2]

(b) The masses, x grams, of a random sample of 1000 pebbles on a different beach were also found. It was
proposed that the distribution of these masses should be modelled by the random variable X ~ N(200, 3600).

Use the model to find P(150 < X < 210). [1]

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(c) Use the model to determine x 1 such that P(160 < X < x 1) = 0.6, giving your answer correct to five significant
figures. [3]

(d) It was found that the smallest and largest masses of the pebbles in this second sample were 112 g and 288 g
respectively.

Use these results to show that the model may not be appropriate. [1]

(e) Suggest a different value of a parameter of the model in the light of these results. [2]

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3(a) In this question you must show detailed reasoning.

A biased four-sided spinner has edges numbered 1, 2, 3, 4. When the spinner is spun, the probability that it will
land on the edge numbered X is given by

Draw a table showing the probability distribution of X. [1]

(b) The spinner is spun three times and the value of X is noted each time.

Find the probability that the third value of X is greater than the sum of the first two values of X. [3]

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4(a) A random variable X has probability distribution defined as follows.

where k is a constant.

Show that P(X = 3) = 0.2. [3]

(b) Show in a table the values of X and their probabilities. [2]

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(c) Two independent values of X are chosen, and their total T is found.

(i) Find P(T = 7). [3]

(ii) Given that T = 7, determine the probability that one of the values of X is 2. [4]

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5(a) In this question you must show detailed reasoning.

The random variable X has probability distribution defined as follows.

Show that . [1]

(b) The values of three independent observations of X are denoted by X 1, X 2 and X 3.

Given that X 1 + X 2 + X 3 = 9, determine the probability that at least one of these three values is equal to 2. [6]

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(c) Freda chooses values of X at random until she has obtained X = 2 exactly three times. She then stops.

Determine the probability that she chooses exactly 10 values of X. [3]

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6(a) Some packets of a certain kind of biscuit contain a free gift. The manufacturer claims that the proportion of
packets containing a free gift is 1 in 4. Marisa suspects that this claim is not true, and that the true proportion is
less than 1 in 4. She chooses 20 packets at random and finds that exactly 1 contains the free gift.

Use a binomial model to test the manufacturer’s claim, at the 2.5% significance level. [7]

(b) The packets are packed in boxes, with each box containing 40 packets. Marisa chooses three boxes at random
and finds that one box contains 19 packets with the free gift and the other two boxes contain no packets with the
free gift.

Give a reason why this suggests that the binomial model used in part (a) may not be appropriate. [1]

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7(a) The masses, in grams, of plums of a certain kind have the distribution N(55, 18).

(i) Find the probability that a plum chosen at random has a mass between 50.0 and 60.0 grams. [1]

(ii) The heaviest 5% of plums are classified as extra large. [1]

Find the minimum mass of extra large plums.

(iii) The plums are packed in bags, each containing 10 randomly selected plums.

Find the probability that a bag chosen at random has a total mass of less than 530 g. [4]

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(b) The masses, in grams, of apples of a certain kind have the distribution N(67, σ2). It is given that half of the
apples have masses between 62 g and 72 g.

Determine σ. [5]

8 It is known that, under the standard treatment for a certain disease, 9.7% of patients with the disease experience
side effects within one year.

In a trial of a new treatment, a random sample of 450 patients with this disease was selected and the number X
who experienced side effects within one year was noted.

State one assumption needed in order to use a binomial model for X. [1]

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9 A fair dice is thrown 1000 times and the number, X, of throws on which the score is 6 is noted.

(a) (i) State the distribution of X. [1]

(ii) Explain why a normal distribution would be an appropriate approximation to the distribution of X. [1]

(b) Use a normal distribution to find two positive integer values, a and b, such that P(a < X < b) ≈ 0.4. [5]

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(c) For your two values of a and b, use the distribution of part (a)(i) to find the value of P(a < X < b), correct
to 3 significant figures. [2]

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10 The finance department of a retail firm recorded the daily income each day for 300 days. The results are
summarised in the histogram.

(a) Find the number of days on which the daily income was between £4000 and £6000. [3]

(b) Calculate an estimate of the number of days on which the daily income was between £2700 and £3600.
[3]

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(c) Use the midpoints of the classes to show that an estimate of the mean daily income is £3275. [2]

An estimate of the standard deviation of the daily income is £1060. The finance department uses the distribution
N(3275, 10602) to model the daily income, in pounds.

(d) Calculate the number of days on which, according to this model, the daily income would be between
£4000 and £6000.
[2]

(e) It is given that approximately 95% of values of the distribution N(μ, σ2) lie within the range μ, ± 2σ. [2]
Without further calculation, use this fact to comment briefly on whether the proposed model is a good fit
to the data illustrated in the histogram.

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11 A counter is initially at point O on the x–axis. A fair coin is thrown 6 times. Each time the coin shows heads, the
counter is moved one unit in the positive x–direction. Each time the coin shows tails, the counter is moved one
unit in the negative x–direction. The final distance of the counter from O, in either direction, is denoted by D.

Determine the most probable value of D. [7]

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12 (a) The variable X has the distribution N(20, 9).

(i) Find P(X > 25). [1]

(ii) Given that P(X > a) = 0.2, find a. [1]

(iii) Find b such that P(20 – b < X < 20 + b) = 0.5. [3]

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(b) The variable Y has the distribution N(μ, ). Find P(Y > 1.5μ). [3]

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13 The discrete random variable X takes values 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, and its probability distribution is defined as follows.

where a is a constant.

(a) Show that . [2]

The discrete probability distribution for X is given in the table.

(b) Find the probability that X is odd. [1]

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Two independent values of X are chosen, and their sum S is found.

(c) Find the probability that S is odd. [2]

(d) Find the probability that S is greater than 8, given that S is odd. [3]

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Sheila sometimes needs several attempts to start her car in the morning. She models the number of attempts
she needs by the discrete random variable Y defined as follows.

for all positive integers y.

(e) Find P(Y = 1). [2]

(f) Give a reason why one of the variables, X or Y, might be more appropriate as a model for the number
of attempts that Sheila needs to start her car. [1]

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14 In this question you must show detailed reasoning.

The probability that Paul’s train to work is late on any day is 0.15, independently of other days.

(a) The number of days on which Paul’s train to work is late during a 450-day period is denoted by the

random variable Y. Find a value of a such that . [3]

In the expansion of (0.15 + 0.85)50, the terms involving 0.15r and 0.15r + 1 are denoted by Tr and Tr + 1
respectively.

(b) Show that . [3]

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(c) The number of days on which Paul’s train to work is late during a 50-day period is modelled by the
random variable X.

(i) Find the values of r for which P(X = r) ≤ P(X = r + 1). [4]

(ii) Hence find the most likely number of days on which the train will be late during a 50-day period. [2]

15 The probability distribution of a random variable X is given in the table.

(b) Two values of X are chosen at random. Find the probability that the product of these values is 0. [3]

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16 The probability that Janice sees a kingfisher on any particular day is 0.3. She notes the number, X, of days in a
week on which she sees a kingfisher.

(a) State one necessary condition for X to have a binomial distribution. [1]

Assume now that X has a binomial distribution.

(b) Find the probability that, in a week, Janice sees a kingfisher on exactly 2 days. [1]

Each week Janice notes the number of days on which she sees a kingfisher.

(c) Find the probability that Janice sees a kingfisher on exactly 2 days in a week during at least 4 of 6
randomly chosen weeks. [3]

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17 The masses, X grams, of tomatoes are normally distributed. Half of the tomatoes have masses greater than 56.0
g and 70% of the tomatoes have masses greater than 53.0 g.

(a) Find the percentage of tomatoes with masses greater than 59.0 g. [2]

(b) Find the percentage of tomatoes with masses greater than 65.0 g. [4]

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(c) Given that P(a < X < 50) = 0.1, find a. [3]

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18 A bag contains 100 black discs and 200 white discs. Paula takes five discs at random, without replacement. She
notes the number X of these discs that are black.

(a) Find P(X = 3). [2]

Paula decides to use the binomial distribution as a model for the distribution of X.

(b) Explain why this model will give probabilities that are approximately, but not exactly, correct. [3]

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(c) Paula uses the binomial model to find an approximate value for P(X = 3). Calculate the percentage by
which her answer will differ from the answer in part (b). [2]

Paula now assumes that the binomial distribution is a good model for X. She uses a computer simulation to
generate 1000 values of X. The number of times that X = 3 occurs is denoted by Y.

(d) Calculate estimates of the limits between which two thirds of the values of Y will lie. [3]

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19 A bag contains 6 red discs and 4 green discs.

(i) Rohan takes 3 discs at random from the bag, without replacement, and places them on the table.
Let X be the number of red discs he places on the table.

(a) Show that [3]

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(b) Part of the probability distribution of X is given in the table below.

Find E(X) and Var(X). [6]

(ii) Rohan arranges the 6 red discs and 4 green discs in a straight line. How many different arrangements of
the colours are possible? [2]

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20 The heaviest 17% of rococo apples are classified as large, and the lightest 17% are classified as small. The
remainder are classified as medium. The limits within which the masses of medium rococo apples lie are 96 g
and 120 g. Stating a necessary assumption, estimate the mass of the heaviest rococo apple. [4]

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21 On average, 40% of candidates pass a certain test on the first attempt.

Three candidates take the test. The number who pass on the first attempt is denoted by X.

(a) State an appropriate model for X, including the values of any parameters. [1]

(b) State an appropriate model for X, including the values of any parameters. [2]

You should now assume that both these assumptions are true.

(d) Find the probability that exactly 2 of the 3 candidates pass the test. [1]

All candidates who fail the test take a re-test and, on average, 60% of these candidates pass. Assume that the
same two assumptions are satisfied as for the original test.

(e) Find the probability that all three candidates pass, either on the test or on the re-test. [3]

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22 The variable X has the distribution N(20, 42).

(a) Given that P (X < a) = 0.1, find a . [1]

(b) Given that P (b < X < c) = 0.95, find a possible pair of values of b and c. [2]

23 Joanne has five cards, numbered 1, 1, 1, 2, 2. She picks two cards at random, without replacement. The variable
X denotes the sum of the numbers on the two cards.

(a) [2]
Show that

The table shows the probability distribution of X.

Joanne replaces the two cards. Now Liam picks two cards at random from the five cards, without replacement.
The variable Y denotes the sum of the numbers on the two cards that Liam picks.

(b) Find P(X = Y). [2]

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24 A random variable X has probability distribution given by

(a) Find P(X > 39). [2]

(b) Given that x is even, determine P(X <10). [6]

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25 (a) The heights of English men aged 25 to 34 are normally distributed with mean 178 cm and standard
deviation 8 cm. Three English men aged 25 to 34 are chosen at random. Find the probability that all
three of them have a height less than 194 cm. [3]

(b) The diagram shows the distribution of heights of Scottish women aged 25 to 34.

It is given that the distribution is approximately normal. Use the diagram above to estimate the
standard deviation of these heights, explaining your method. [3]

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26 A market gardener records the masses of a random sample of 100 of this year's crop of plums. The table shows
his results.

Mass, m m < 25 25 ≤ m < 35 35 ≤ m < 45 45 ≤ m < 55 55 ≤ m < 65 65 ≤ m < 75 m ≥ 75

grams
Number of 0 3 29 36 30 2 0
plums

(a) Explain why the normal distribution might be a reasonable model for this distribution. [1]

The market gardener models the distribution of masses by N(47.5, 102 ) .

(b) Find the number of plums in the sample that this model would predict to have masses in the range
(i) 35 ≤ m < 45, [2]

(ii) m < 25. [2]

(d) The market gardener plans to use this model to predict the distribution of the masses of next year's
crop of plums. Comment on this plan. [1]

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27 The probability distribution of a random variable X is given in the table.

x 1 2 3
P(X = x) 0.6 0.3 0.1

Two values of X are chosen at random. Find the probability that the second value is greater than the first.
[3]

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28 (a) Write down and simplify the first four terms in the expansion of (x + y)7.
Give your answer in ascending powers of x. [2]

(b) Given that the terms in x 2 y 5 and x 3 y 4 in this expansion are equal, find the value of . [2]

late on a randomly chosen day is denoted by L. The variable L is modelled by the distribution .
Show that, in this model, the hospital consultant is equally likely to have two appointments start late or
three appointments start late. [3]

29 The mass, in kilograms, of a packet of flour is a normally distributed random variable with mean 1.03 and
variance σ2. Given that 5% of packets have mass less than 1.00 kg, find the percentage of packets with mass
greater than 1.05 kg.

[6]

(i) A random variable X has the distribution B(25, 0.6). Find

(a) P(X ⩽ 14),

[1]

(b) P(X = 14),

[2]

(ii) A random variable Y has the distribution B(24, 0.3). Write down an expression for P(Y = y) and evaluate this
probability in the case where y = 8.

[2]

(iii) A random variable Z has the distribution B(2, 0.2). Find the probability that two randomly chosen values of Z
are equal.

[3]

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31
Each time Ben attempts to complete a crossword in his daily newspaper, the probability that he succeeds is .
The random variable X denotes the number of times that Ben succeeds in 9 attempts.

(i) Find

(a) P(X = 6),

[3]

(b) P(X ˂ 6),

[1]

(c) E(X) and Var(X).

[2]

Ben notes three values, X1, X2 and X3, of X.

(ii) State the total number of attempts to complete a crossword that are needed to obtain three values of X.
Hence find P(X1 + X2 + X3 = 18).

[4]

(a) The probability distribution of a random variable W is shown in the table.

Calculate Var(W).

[3]

(b) The random variable X has probability distribution given by

(i) Show that .

[1]

(ii) Calculate E(X).

[3]

(i) Find

(a) E(X),

[1]

(b) P(X = 2).

[2]

(ii) Two values of X are chosen at random. Find the probability that their sum is less than 2.

[4]

(iii) 10 values of X are chosen at random. Use an appropriate formula to find the probability that exactly 3 of
these values are 2s.

[3]

34 When a four-sided spinner is spun, the number on which it lands is denoted by X, where X is a random variable
taking values 2, 4, 6 and 8. The spinner is biased so that P(X = x) = kx, where k is a constant.

(i) Show that .

[2]

(ii) Find E(X) and Var(X).

[5]

35 The random variable Y is normally distributed with mean μ and variance σ2. It is found that P(Y > 150.0) =
0.0228 and P(Y > 143.0) = 0.9332. Find the values of μ and σ.

[6]

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36 The random variable G has the distribution N(μ, σ2). One hundred observations of G are taken. The results are
summarised in the following table.

Interval G < 40.0 40.0 ≼ G < 60.0 G ≽ 60.0

Frequency 17 58 25

(i) By considering P(G < 40.0), write down an equation involving μ and σ.

[2]

(ii) Find a second equation involving μ and σ. Hence calculate values for μ and σ.

[4]

(iii) Explain why your answers are only estimates.

[1]

37 A factory produces 9000 music DVDs each day. A random sample of 100 such DVDs is obtained.

(i) Explain how to obtain this sample using random numbers.

[3]

(ii) Given that 24% of the DVDs produced by the factory are classical, use a suitable approximation to find the
probability that, in the sample of 100 DVDs, fewer than 20 are classical.

[5]

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38 Froox sweets are packed into tubes of 10 sweets, chosen at random. 25% of Froox sweets are yellow.

(i) Find the probability that in a randomly selected tube of Froox sweets there are

(a) exactly 3 yellow sweets,

[3]

(b) at least 3 yellow sweets.

[2]

(ii) Find the probability that in a box containing 6 tubes of Froox sweets, there is at least 1 tube that contains at
least 3 yellow sweets.

[3]

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39 In a factory, an inspector checks a random sample of 30 mugs from a large batch and notes the number, X,
which are defective. He then deals with the batch as follows.

If X < 2, the batch is accepted.

If X > 2, the batch is rejected.
If X = 2, the inspector selects another random sample of only 15 mugs from the batch. If this second sample
contains 1 or more defective mugs, the batch is rejected. Otherwise the batch is accepted.

It is given that 5% of mugs are defective.

(i)
(a) Find the probability that the batch is rejected after just the first sample is checked.

[3]

(b) Show that the probability that the batch is rejected is 0.327, correct to 3 significant figures.

[5]

(ii) Batches are checked one after another. Find the probability that the first batch to be rejected is either the 4th
or the 5th batch that is checked.

[3]

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40 The probability distribution of a random variable X is shown.

x 1 3 5 7
P(X = x) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

(i) Find E(X) and Var(X).

[5]

(ii) Three independent values of X, denoted by X1, X2 and X3, are chosen. Given that X1 + X2 + X3 = 19, write
down all the possible sets of values for X1, X2 and X3 and hence find P(X1 = 7).

[2]

(iii) 11 independent values of X are chosen. Use an appropriate formula to find the probability that exactly 4 of
these values are 5s.

[3]

END OF QUESTION PAPER

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

1 N(5000×0.26, M1(AO3. or, using

5000×0.26×0.74) may be 1a) Binomial
implied not Normal,
= N(1300, 962) M1(AO3. or B(5000,
1300–2×√"962" or 1300 – 3) Φ-1(0.025) 0.26) soi x
1.96×√"962" May be M1
(= 1238) (= 1239) implied Attempt
or –1.96 or P(X < n) for
1239(.2) 1230<n<
M1(AO3. seen 1250
4) or inverse
P(X < 1239) or P(X ≤ 1238) Bin (0.025)
or P(X < 1240) or P(X ≤ A1(AO1. One of (= 1239)
1239) 1) these M1
attempted,
P(X < 1238) = 0.0233 OR A1(AO2. by Binomial
P(X < 1239) = 0.0251 2a) or Normal
BC Allow
P(X < 1238) = 0.0233 OR 0.0232
P(X < 1239) = 0.0251 instead of
AND Largest n is 1239 or n Correct P(X 0.0233
< 1239 < 1238)
&P(X If use
<1239) normal to
Example of incorrect seen and find these
method: conclusion. probs
1300 – 2×√"962" (= 1238) (0.0265 &
P(X < 1239) = 0.0251 Example of 0.0246)
P(X < 1238) = 0.0233 [5] inadequate A0A0
Largest n is 1239 method:
SC 4 NB If two
1300 –1.96 methods
×√"962" (= used, mark
1239) the better
Largest n is one.
1239
SC 4 NB:
SC 1239,
no working
or incorrect
or
inadequate
working,
SC: 4
marks out
of 5

Examiner’s Comments

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

Many candidates, sensibly,

used the Normal
approximation to the
Binomial distribution, which
gave rise to n = 1239.2.
However, most then just
wrote down their answer
(either 1239 or 1240)
without checking the actual
values of P(n ≤ a) (or P(n <
a) ) for values of a close to
1239.

Other candidates used the

"Binomial cdf" function,
trying various values of a
until they arrived at the
largest value that gave P(n
< a) < 0.025.

A few used the "Inverse

binomial" function, which
gave rise to n = 1239, but
most of these candidates
did not proceed to check
the actual values of P(n ≤
a) (or P(n ≤ a) ) for values
of a close to 1239.

Many candidates,
whichever method they
used, showed a
misunderstanding of the
"Binomial cdf" function on
their calculator. Their
working showed that they
thought that the "Binomial
cdf" function gives the value
of P(n < a) rather than P(n
≤ a). So for example, some
wrote P(n ≤ 1239) = 0.0251,
which is incorrect. Others
"fudged" the issue by
writing, for example "1239
→ 0.0251". Best practice
would be to show explicitly
P(n ≤ 1239) = 0.0251 and
P(n ≤ 1238) = 0.0233, and
hence state that the largest
possible value of n is 1239.

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

Total 5

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

2 a (mean =) 201 (3 sf) B1

(AO1.1)
(sd =) 60.7 (3 sf) B1 Allow 60.8
(AO1.1)
[2]

b 0.364 (3 sf) B1
(AO3.4)
[1]

c P(X < 160) = 0.252(49) B1 soi, eg by P(X > 160) =

(AO3.4) 0.748 or 0.747 or by 0.147
x1 = Φ–1(0.6 + '0.25249') M1 or 0.148
(AO1.1)
T&I: correct answer scores
= 262.83 (5 sf) ISW A1 B1M1A1, otherwise max B1
(AO1.1) SC Answer 263 with correct
[3] working: B1M1A0
SC Answer 263 with
inadequate working: B1
only

d 112 and 288 are within 2 sd or μ + 2σ = 320 (μ + 3σ =

from mean 380) which is > than 288
(no working B1 or P(112< M < 288) = 0.858
needed) (AO3.5a) which is < than 0.95 (or
P(X < 112) = 0.0708, which [1] 0.99)
is or p = 0.858, but model
> 0.025 or > 0.0013 or suggests p = 1
>0 NOT 0.858 alone B0

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

e Reduce σ B1 May be implied by value of

288 – 200 = or 288 – 200 (AO3.5c) σ
2σ = 3σ
or 288 – 112 or 288 - 112 B1 Allow more precise correct
= 4σ = 6σ (AO3.3) methods
σ = 44 σ = 29.3 or [2] Allow σ between 25 and 50.
about 30 No working needed B1B1
or σ2 between 625 and
2500

Examiner’s Comments

This question is best

answered by noting that
most (or almost all) the
values of a normal
distribution lie within 2 (or 3)
standard deviations of the
mean. However, many
candidates who found these
values did not explicitly
compare them with the two
values given in the
question.

Total 9

3 a
B1(AO1. B1
1)
[1]

b DR 1,1,3; 1,1,4; 1,2,4; B1(AO3. B1 for any three of these

2,1,4 1a) soi, eg on tree diagram
M1(AO2. Any two correct products
1) added: ft their table

A1(AO1.
1) Examiner’s Comments
[3]
Many candidates did not
identify all four cases.
Some only found the
products of two, rather than
three, probabilities.

Total 4

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

4 a k(1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5) (= 1) M1(AO3. Allow 15k

3) (= 1)
A1(AO1.
1) May be
implied
P(X = 3) = 3 × A1(AO2.
1)
Must see

(= 0.2 AG) [3] and answer

0.2

Examiner’s Comments

Most candidates answered

this question correctly.
Many, however, (perhaps
misunderstanding the
phrase "where k is a
constant") assumed that all
five probabilities were
equal, and therefore each
probability was 0.2

b 1 2 3 4 5

M1(AO1. M1 for ≥ 3 Allow X = 0

oe 2) probs or X = 6 or
A1(AO1. correct, ft X = 6+ if
0.07, 0.13, 0.2, 0.27, 0.33 1) their k prob shown
cao. Allow as 0
[2] decimals (2
dp)
SC: Table
with all five
probs =
0.2: M1

Examiner’s Comments

Almost all candidates

answered this correctly, or
incorrectly but consistently
with their method for part
(a).

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

c i Both parts. Allow mixture of

methods

M1(AO3. Correct
4) products
oe
added, ft
M1(AO3. their table
1a)
×2
2×(Sum of
A1(AO1. two
or 0.196 (3 sf) 1) products of
probs)

cao
[3] Special
cases All probs =
2-way table 0.2
Count 4 0.22+0.22
pairs M1

M1 But if (b)
But if (b) correct: M0
correct: 2×(0.
M0 22+0.22)
Allow
÷25 without 2×
M1 M1

= 0.16 = 0.16
A0 A0

Examiner’s Comments

In both these parts, some

candidates either assumed
that the probabilities for all
the values of X were equal,
or (which is equivalent)
drew up a two-way table of
all the possible outcomes
and counted up the relevant
ones. These were able to
gain only a few marks.
Some candidates used one
of these incorrect methods,
despite having answered
parts (a) and (b) correctly.

Many candidates

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

recognised that for T =

7could be found by
considering 2+5 and 3+4,
but forgot to consider 5+2
and 4+3.

Exemplar 1

This candidate has shown

clear working, but forgotten
to multiple by two in order
to consider all the ways to
score T = 7 .

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii P(one value is 2 M1(AO3. Allow

4) without
& T = 7) "2×", ft their
A1f(AO1. table
1) ft their table
(except if
all probs =
M1(AO2. 0.2)
1)

A1(AO1.
1) cao NB not
or 0.455 (3 sf)
0.454
[4]
Eg:

If (i)
M1A0M1A0
Count 2 2 × 0.22 M1
pairs
= 0.08
M1 A0

A0
M1
÷4
= 0.5
M1
A0
= 0.5
A0

Examiner’s Comments

Most candidates attempted

to use the conditional
probability formula and,
correctly, placed their
answer to part (c)(i) in the
denominator of a fraction.
But many were unable to
identify the pairs of values
that gave rise to "T = 7 AND
one of the values is 2".

Total 12

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

5 a

DR oe eg ( B1 Must see this expression

AG) (AO1.1) and result
[1]

b DR 2, 2, 5 2, 3, 4 3, 3, M1 Any two seen, with no more

3 (AO3.1a) than 2 extra different
combinations. eg 0, 4, 5
P(X1 + X2 + X3 = 9) = and 0, 5, 4 count as one
extra

M1 M2:≥ 1 correct product

0.0412 + 0.1373 + 0.0305
(AO2.1) actually seen & all three
M1 products correct
(AO2.1) M1:1 correct product seen
or all correct except
omission of, or
P(X1+ X2 + X3 =9 and at incorrect, multiple(s)
least 1 X value = 2) or all three results or
total correct, but without
M1 working
(AO1.1)

M1
= 0.854 o (AO2.1) Allow M1 for 1 correct
A1 product or omit, or
(3 sf) r (AO2.2a) incorrect, multiple(s) or ft
their probabilities from their
P(X1 + X2 + X3 = 9 and no X previous calculation
value = 2)
÷ their attempted probs of
(=0.030518 M1 correct events
M1
or )

A1
[6]
= 0.854 o

(3 sf) r ft their P(3, 3, 3)

÷ their attempted
probabilities of correct
events & subtract from 1

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

NB alone scores
M1

Examiner’s Comments

Most candidates were

unable to find their way
through the various
calculations needed. Some
obtained a correct product
of three probabilities (e. g.
for 2, 2, 5) but omitted to
multiply by 3. Others
omitted the case 3, 3, 3
altogether.

c P(two 2's in nine vales of X) M1 soi eg by 9C2 seen

(AO3.1a

or 0.094466 M1
(AO2.1)
or A1 soi
P(two 2's in nine vales of X) (AO1.1)
× P(X = 2) [3]
NB scores 0,
unless multiplied by 9C2
or
0.0443 (3 sf)
Examiner’s Comments

Most candidates did not

recognise the need to
consider the first 9 values
separately before
considering the 10th.

Some candidates seemed

unfamiliar with the binomial
distribution.

Misconception

In answering Question 7
(about vectors) some
candidates appeared not to
appreciate the different
significances of a, a and A.

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

Some candidates appeared

not to understand the
description "cartesian
equation" and attempted to
find some sort of vector
equation of the circle in
question 7(d).

Many candidates did not

appreciate the need for the
modulus sign, and how to

use it, after integrating

, in question 8.

Many candidates used ’=’

instead of ‘≤’ in the
hypothesis test, as
mentioned in Question 10.

In answering Question
13(b), most candidates did
not recognise that an
infinite series was involved.

Total 10

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

6 a Allow 2 sf throughout
H0: p = 0.25 B1(AO1.
where p = P(a packet 1) or p = proportion of packets
contains gift) containing gift
B1(AO2.
H1: p < 0.25 5) One error, eg undefined p
M1(AO3. B1B0
B(20, 0.25) & X = 1 3)
A1(AO3. soi
P(X ≤ 1) = 0.0243 4)
Condone but not P(X
A1(AO1. P(X = 1) = = 1)
comp 0.025 1) 0.0243 = 0.0211 or
Reject H0 M1(AO1. other
1) incorrect
dep 0.0243
and 0.025
Allow eg “H0 Dep 0.0243
Sufficient evidence that A1(AO2. is incorrect” or P(X ≤ 1)
proportion containing gift is 2b) stated or
less than 0.25 [7] 0.0211
Can be implied by correct
conclusion as for A1 below

In context, not definite, eg

not “Proportion is less”

Examiner’s Comments

There were some very good

responses to this question.
However, it was clear that
the candidates fell into two
classes - those that had
been trained to answer
hypothesis test questions
and those that had not been
so well trained. A common
error was to omit to define p
in the hypotheses. Another,
more serious, error was to
find P(X = 1) rather than
P(X ≤ 1). A third common
error was to give a definite
conclusion such as “The
proportion of packets
containing a gift is less than
25%”, rather than a correct,

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

more limited, statement

such as “There is significant
evidence to suggest that
the proportion of packets
containing a gift is less than
25%”.

b EITHER
whether a packet contains a Allow The probability of
free gift is not independent packet containing a gift is
of whether other nearby not independent
packets contain the free gift
OR B1(AO3. Explanation, in context of
eg The probability that a 5b) why either the
packet contains a gift is not [1] independence condition or
the same for each packet the constant probability
or The proportion of condition is not met.
packets with gifts in each
box is not constant NOT The number of gifts in
each box is not constant
OR Free gifts not
distributed randomly

Total 8

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

7 a i 0.761 or 0.762 (3 sf) B1(AO1. BC Allow

1) 0.76

Examiner’s Comments
[1]
This question was well
answered.

ii 62.0 (3 sf) B1(AO1. BC Allow Allow m ≥

1) 62 or 61.9 62.0

Examiner’s Comments
[1]
This question was also well
answered.

iii Use of X̄ eg " X̄ " or "mean"

M1(AO1. μ = 550
1a) seen or
or
implied

M1(AO3. May be
3) ΣX ~ implied
X̄ ~ N(55,
N(550,
M1(AO3. 180)
4) Correct Stated or
P( X̄ < dep implied
A1(AO1. P(ΣX <
= 0.0680 (3 sf) 1) 530) dep σ2
= 180
[4] Correct
= 0.0680 (3 answer
sf) from limited
Allow 0.068 (or no)
working:
M1M1M1A
1

Examiner’s Comments

A disappointingly small
number of candidates
recognised that this
question could be answered
using the distribution of X̅ ,
the sample mean. Those
who did recognise this were
generally successful. A few
candidates used the
formulae (not in the

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

specification, but
acceptable) E(X1 + X2 + X3
+ . . . Xn ) = nE(X) and
Var(X1 + X2 + X3 + . . . Xn
) = nVar(X), and answered
correctly. However, some
used n2Var(X), and so
obtained a standard
deviation of instead
of .

Many assumed that each

plum had to have a mass of
less than 53 g. These found
(P(X= 53) )10.

b P(Y < 72) = P(Y < 62) = M1(AO3. oe May be NB

0.75 0.25 1b) implied, eg P(62
M1(AO2. on diagram <Y<72)
Ф-1(0.75) or Ф-1(0.25) or 4) ±0.674 = 0.5 no
0.674 –0.674 M1(AO2. implies mks yet
1) M1M1
Allow 0.67
A1(AO1. M1M1M1
1) may be
implied by
oe, eg 5 = A1
0.674 σ
A1(AO1. A1 for Must be
1) correct seen
σ = 7.41 or 7.42 (3 sf)
equn, allow
0.67
SC correct
answer
with no or SC B2 if
M2 working correct to 2
Trial and Improvement
or sf
Ф-1(0.75) or 0.674 or
M1 irrelevant
Ф-1(0.25) or –0.674
working:
A1 SC B3
eg σ = 8: 67 –
(because
8×0.674 = 61.6
"determine"
rather than
σ = 7: 67 –
A1 "find")
7×0.674 = 62.3

May be
[5] implied
σ = 7.41: 67 – 7.41×0.674 =
62.0

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

⇒ σ = 7.41 At least
or σ = 7.42: 67 – one correct
7.42×0.674 = 62.0 trial
⇒ σ = 7.42 Trials
leading to
values
either side
of 62

Correct trial
using σ =
7.41 or
7.42
and
conclusion
σ = 7.41 or
7.42

Examiner’s Comments

Many candidates
recognised that they
needed to use either
Φ–1(0.25) or Φ–1(0.75) and
went on to obtain the
correct answer. Some
others used Φ–1(0.5),
obtaining no marks.

No candidate attempting a
Trail and Improvement
method showed sufficient
detal to be awarded full
marks and generally scored
3 out of 5. See published
mark scheme for example
of level of detail required.

Total 11

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

8 e.g. The probability of side oe, in NOT Prob

effects is the same for each context of patients
patient (or is constant) getting side
effects is
B1(AO1. indep or
e.g. The patients (or cases) 2) Allow any random.
are independent oe indication Ignore all
e.g. Patients form random [1] of context, else
sample of the population eg "patient"
or "side
effects"

Examiner’s Comments

Many candidates attempted

to give an assumption in
context referring to, for
example, other conditions
that might cause side
effects, or patients being in
the same hospital, or there
being only two outcomes:
side effects or no side
effects. These generally did
not address the main point.
Many others addressed the
main point, but did so just
by quoting by rote from the
text book, without reference
to context.

The mark was gained by a

statement equivalent to one
of the following. "Whether a
patient experiences side
effects is independent of
whether any other patient
does so." or "The
probability that a patient
experiences side effects is
the same for each patient."
or "Patients form a random
sample from the population
of people with the disease."
Many gave roughly the
following statement: "The
probability that a patient
experiences side effects is
independent of other

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

patients." This is not quite

correct since it is the events
that need to be
independent, not the
probabilities.

Some candidates referred

to the probability of a
patient getting the disease,
rather than experiencing
side effects.

Some candidates used the

words constant, random
and independent but not in
the correct way.

Some candidates gave

assumptions that were
possibly relevant to the
experimental design, but
not relevant to the binomial
distribution in particular, for
example: We need to
assume that the patients
are telling the truth, and we
need to assume that it is
the medication that is
causing the side effects.

It is worth noting that two of

the conditions for a binomial
distribution (Repeated trials
and only two possible
outcomes to each trial) are
not "assumptions" that need
to be made in a particular
context. They are
conditions that are built into
the context.

Total 1

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

9 a (i) X is binomial B1 (AO

3.3)
[1]
(ii) Large n B1 (AO
3.3)
[1]

b B1 (AO soi; allow Other

1.2) N( 167, correct
139) methods
e.g. P(X < b) = 0.7 M1 (AO score
3.4) similarly eg
b = 173 or 174 A1 (AO Φ--1(0.9)
1.1) BC
M1 (AO = 181
3.4) or P(X < a)
= 160 or 159 A1 (AO = 0.3 Φ--1(0.5)
1.1)
[5] = 166

eg P(160 < X or P(159 < X M1 (AO P(166 < X

< 173) < 174) 3.4) BC < 181)
= 0.69218 – or 0.72108 – A1 (AO NB ft their 0.87910 –
0.30280 0.27355 1.1) a and b 0.49812
= 0.389 (3 sf) or 0.448 (3 sf) [2] = 0.381 (3
sf)

Total 9

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

10 a Total area = 500 small B1 or 20 cm2 May be

squares (AO1.2) or other implied
units
M1
(AO1.1a) o
r
A1
= 60 (days) (AO1.1) or
[3] equivalent

b M1 M1 for oe in other
(AO2.1) denom & units
one term in
M1 num M1
(AO1.1) M1 for
correct ×
= 111 A1 300
(AO1.1)
[3]

c Frequencies: 30, 90, 75, 45, M1 Allow

60 (AO3.1a) multiples of
these
A1
(= 3275 (AO1.1) correctly
AG) [2] obtain 3275

d P(4000 < x < 6000) × 300 M1 Attempted,

(AO3.4) using
N(3275,
= 0.2419 × 300 = 72.57 so A1 10602)
73 days (AO1.1)
[2] BC accept
truncation
to 72 days

e 3270 + 2 × 1060 = 5395 B1

(AO3.4)
In histogram, well over E1
2.5% of values are above (AO2.2b)
5395, so model not a good [2]
fit

Total 12

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

11 Let X be the number of

heads.
M1 soi
(AO3.3)

M1 soi Considerin
P(D = 0) = P(X = 3) (AO2.1) g explicitly
M1 soi relationship
P(D = 2) = 2 × P(X = 4) or (AO2.1) between D
similar B1 soi and X
(AO1.1)
Values of D are 0, 2, 4, 6 A1 Any two
(AO3.4) correct
A1
(AO1.1) All correct

A1
The largest value is , so (AO1.1) For
the most probable [7] identifying
2

value of D is 2

Total 7

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

12 a (i) 0.0478 or 0.048 (2 sf) B1 BC

(AO 1.1)

[1] Examiner’s Comments

Most candidates answered

this question correctly. A
few used a standard
deviation of 9.
(ii) 22.5 or 23 (2 sf) B1
(AO 1.1) BC

[1]
Examiner’s Comments

Some candidates found

Φ–1(0.2) = 17.5. A few used
a standard deviation of 9
(iii P(X < 20 + b) = 0.75 or M1
) P(X > 20 + b) = 0.25 (AO 1.1a)
20 + b = 22.02.. or 22.0 A1 P(X < 20 –
or 22 (AO 1.1) b) = 0.25
A1 20 – b =
b = 2.02 or 2.0 (2 sf) (AO 1.1) 17.98 or 18
Allow b = 2
b = 22(.02)
M1A1A0

T&I
method:
Try 2
values,
one ≈ 2
M1

Correct (0.495 &

probs for 0.516)
two values
[3] in
[2, 2.1]
A1
Correct
probs for
two values
in
[2, 2.05] &
ans 2.0 or
2 A1

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

Examiner’s Comments

Many candidates could not

make the first step, which is
to move from the given
probability of 0.5 to a
probability of either 0.25 or
0.75

b M1 SC (eg)
(AO 1.1a) Let µ = 1;

N(1, )
M1
A1
(AO 1.1) A0

A1
P(X > 1.5µ) = 0.0668 or (AO 1.1)
0.67 (2 sf)
A1

[3] Examiner’s Comments

Many candidates chose a

value for μ, without
justification. These could
score two out of the three
marks.
Many candidates used a
standard

deviation of and so
found that μ did not cancel
out. Some could not handle
the simple algebra involved

in substituting X = 1.5μ into

Total 8

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

13 a

soi M1 (AO or
3.1a) oe seen

A1 (AO correctly
1.1) obtained

[2]
Examiner’s Comments

This question was well

answered on the
whole, although a few
candidates used the
probabilities in the table,
just finding

b or 0.677 or B1 (AO
0.68 (2 sf) 1.1a)

[1]

Examiner’s Comments
This question was well
answered.

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

c P(sum odd) = P(OE) +

P(EO)
M1 (AO or correct Allow
2.1) "long" without "2
method ×"

A1 (AO
or 0.437 or 0.44 (2 1.1)
sf)
[2]

Examiner’s Comments
Some candidates did not
see that their answer to part
(b) could be used, and
started from scratch using
the probabilities in the table.
Many of these omitted at
least one possible pair, and
others included all possible
pairs, but omitted to double
their answer. A few
candidates ignored the
probabilities (and their
answer to part (b)) and
assumed the each value of
X is equally likely.

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

d P(Sum > 8 & odd) = P(Sum

= 9)
or P(> 8) ×
= P(4, 5) + P(5, 4) P(O | > 8)

M1 (AO Correct
1.1a) method

M1 (AO Attempt
2.4) ft their (c)
and their
P(Sum > 8
& odd)
A1 (AO
or 0.00952 or 1.1)
0.0095 (2 sf)
[3] cao
M0M1A0

Examiner’s Comments
Most candidates recognised
the need to find P(S = 9),
but some omitted to include
both 4, 5 and 5, 4 . Many
then correctly divided by
their answer to part (d).

e M1 (AO
3.4)

P(X = 1) = 0.5 A1 (AO Correct

3.4) ans, no
working
[2] M1A1

Examiner’s Comments
Some candidates
recognised the need for an
infinite series, but most
could not cope with the fact
that the first term is
unknown. Many candidates
thought that Y cannot be 0,
hence P(Y = 0) = 0 and
hence
P(Y = 1) = 0.5 – 0 = 0

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

f Eg Y. (Y takes all values, oe, eg Y. It

but) X cannot be > 5 may take
more than
Eg X because > 5 is very B1 (AO 5 attempts
unlikely 3.5b) or "limited
no." oe
[1] instead of 5

Examiner’s Comments
A choice of either X or Y
with a reasonable
justification was acceptable.
Some candidates felt that it
was unrealistic for Sheila to
go on trying after five
attempts, so X is the better
model. Others said that she
might well need more than
five attempts so Y is the
better model. One
ingenious answer was that
X is better, because it gives
a higher chance of the car
starting first time!
Unfortunately, this answer
did not deal with the
question as to which model
is more appropriate. A
common incorrect response
was that Y is a good model
because according to Y the
probability that the car
starts decreases, rather
than increases, with each
attempt. Others stated that
Y is not a good model,
quoting exactly the same
reason. Some answers did
not include a choice of
either X or Y. Another
answer was that model Y
implies that the car never
starts. Many answers

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

seemed to imply that using

model X, the probabilities
do not decrease.

Total 11

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

14 a DR

N(450×0.15, M1 (AO seen or B(450,

450×0.15×0.85) 3.1b) implied 0.15)
with T & I
or N(67.5, 57.375) oe method
using ≥ one
of 74, 75,
or 76, 61, 60,
59

M1 (AO
1.2) or 74.83 P(X > 74) =
seen; ft 0.177
their μ & σ P(X > 75) =
A1 (AO for M1 only 0.145 both
1.1)
Integer. No a = 74 or
ft Dep 75 or 76
or M1M1
Correct
ans,
[3] inadequate
wking:
= 74 or 75 or 76 M0M0A0
NB 450/6 =
75
M0M0A0

Examiner’s Comments
Because this question
required "detailed
reasoning", correct answers
did not necessarily score
full marks. Thus, for
example, some candidates
gave the following working:
X ~ B(450. 0.15); P(X < a) =

;
X = 75. These scored only
one mark.

Trial and improvement

methods only scored marks
if they were very clearly
explained, with the

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

distribution fully described

and with at least two values
close to 75 being tried, with
the relevant probabilities
actually seen.

The better method was to

use the normal
approximation to the
binomial and the fact that

approximately of values
lie within

the range μ – σ < X < μ + σ.

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

M1 (AO Fully
1.1a) correct
oe

Any correct
A1 (AO simplificatio
eg or 2.1) n without or
factorials
OR without
indices
A1 (AO
oe
1.1) Any correct
simplificatio
n without
factorials
AG AND
without
[3] indices and
correctly
obtain
result

Examiner’s Comments
Some candidates appeared
not to understand the
definition of Tr and Tr + 1.
Many candidates omitted
the relevant powers of 0.85
in their expressions for Tr
and Tr + 1. Some wrote the
correct expressions for both
Tr and Tr + 1, but were
unable to find any common
factors to cancel. Many
attempted to expand the
given binomial expression,
but did not include a
general term. Some
candidates "fudged" the
answers giving, for
example, Tr = 0.85(r + 1)
and Tr + 1 = 0.15(50 – r) etc.

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

(i oe M1 (AO No
3.1b) oe M1 factorials or
indices
17r + 17 ≤ 150 – 3r 0.85(r + 1)
≤ 0.15(50 –
) r)

20r ≤ 133 oe A1 (AO r ≤ 50×0.15 Correct, in

1.1) – 0.85 A1 form ar ≤
b or r <
correct
expr'n

r ≤ 6.65 A1 (AO
1.1)

r is an integer so r ≤ 6 A1 (AO
1.1)

SC:
P(X
=6)=0.142,
P(X
=7)=0.157,
P(X
=8)=0.149

[4] B1 No wking
(must be B0B0
these
three)
hence r ≤ 6
B1dep

Examiner’s Comments
Many candidates did not
see the connection with part
(b). These went back to the
binomial distribution but
very few succeeded. Some
candidates carried out a
correct method but stopped
after obtaining r ≤ 6.65.
Others found r ≤ 6.65 but

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

(ii P(X = r) ≤ P(X = r + 1) for r then gave the answer r = 6.

) ≤6 B1 (AO A trial and improvement
2.1) method could score a
Hence most likely value is maximum of 2 marks in this
r is 6 or 7 question.
B1 (AO
3.2a)

[2]

Most likely value is 7

or P(X = 6) NOT 6.65

= 0.142 & rounds to 7
P(X = 7) = B0B0
0.157

indep, but
dep on No expl'n:
some B0B0
reasonable
explanation

Examiner’s Comments

Almost no candidates gave

a correct solution based on
their answer to part (c)(i).
Some used trial and
improvement, but did not
consider enough values of
X. (At least X = 6 and 7
were required). Some
rounded their figure of 6.65
from part (c)(i) to 7. This did
not score any marks.

Total 12

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

15 a M1 oe eg
(AO1.1a)

A1
(AO1.1)
or 0.0625
Examiner’s Comments
[2]
Most candidates answered
this question correctly. A
few tried to use Σxp instead
of Σp.

b
M1 or eg or
or seen oe (AO1.1a)
M2
ft their p

M1 ft their p or
oe (AO2.1)

Allow0.61
or 0.609 (3 sf)) A1
(AO1.1)
M2
[3]
Examiner’s Comments

Most candidates scored

only one mark because
they omitted one or two of
the three possible routes to
obtaining a product of 0.

Total 5

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

16 a Prob of seeing a kingfisher

is the same each day oe

OR Seeing a kingfisher on B1 In context Not: Prob

one day is independent of (AO3.5b) of seeing
other days kingfisher
[1] is indep

Examiner’s Comments

Despite almost identical

questions having been
asked in many examples of
paper 4732 over many
years, most candidates did
not score the mark. Many
quoted from their textbooks,
to no avail, for example
"Repeated trials" or "Only
two possible outcomes,
seeing or not seeing a
kingfisher" or "There must
be a fixed number of days".
Many gave a correct
answer, but not in context,
such as "Independent trials"
or "Constant probability of
success." None of the
above scored the mark.
Some came a little nearer,
but confused the two
correct conditions, e.g. "The
probability of seeing a
kingfisher on a certain day
is independent of other
days."

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

b 0.318 (3 sf) B1 BC Allow

(AO3.4) 0.32 or
0.317
[1]
Examiner’s Comments

Most candidates
understood how to calculate
a binomial probability.
Some used the formula,
while others used the
calculator function, giving
only the answer. This is
acceptable because
"detailed reasoning" is not
asked for. Many candidates
truncated, rather than
rounded, their three
significant figure answer. A
few candidates just found
0.32.

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

c 0.318 or their (b) used in a M1 or B(6, their

calculation (AO3.1b) (b)) stated

M1 or P(X = 4,
1 – P(X ≤ 3) using p = 0.318 (AO1.1) 5, 6)
or their (b) attempted
using p =
A1 0.318 or
(AO1.1) their (b)
= 0.0854
Allow
[3] 0.0845 to
0.0875
Allow 2 sf
BC

Examiner’s Comments

Many candidates
understood that they
needed to use their answer
from part (b), but many did
not do so correctly. Some
used the formula without
the relevant coefficients.

Candidates should
be aware that they can use
the binomial distribution
function on their calculator,
thus avoiding the possibility
arithmetic errors in binomial
problems.

Some candidates found

P(exactly 4 days) instead of
P(at least 4 days). Others
just found 0.3184. A few
candidates misunderstood
the question and found P(at
least 8 days out of 42).

Total 5

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

17 a μ = 56 B1(AO
1.1a)

Percentage with masses > B1(AO or 0.3

59 g = 30% 1.1)

[2]

b M1(AO
2.1)

σ = 5.721 A1(AO
1.1)
X ~ N(56, '5.721'2) soi
M1(AO ft their σ
2.4)
P(X > 65) = 0.0578 or
5.78% (3 sf) A1(AO Or BC
1.1)

[4]

c P(X < 50) = 0.1471 M1(AO

1.1a)

P(X < a ) = 0.0471) A1(AO

2.1)

a = 46.4 (3 sf) A1(AO

1.1)

[3]

Total 9

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

18 a M1(AO or equiv
1.1a) methods
= 0.164318883 = 0.164 (3
sf) A1(AO
1.1)

[2]

b P(disc is black) changes

each trial (because no E1(AO
replacement) oe 2.4)

E1(AO
But change in prob is small 2.4)
oe
E1(AO
3.5b)
Hence bin gives approx, but
not exact, probs oe [3]

c
(= 0.164609053)

M1(AO ft their
3.4) values for
= 0.177% M1
A1(AO
1.1) cao

[2]

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

d μ = 1000 × 0.164609053 (=
164.609053)
M1(AO both np ft their
σ2 = 1000 × 0.164609053 × 3.3) and npq 0.164.6…..
(1 – 0.164609053) correct Allow use
(= 137.5129127) method of
0.1643….
X ~ Normal
M1(AO
1.1a)
ft their μ
= 152.88 to 176.34
and .
A1(AO Allow
1.1) rounding to
Estimated limits are 153 to
176 3 sf
[3]
Allow (150
– 155) to
(174 – 180)

Total 10

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

6
19 i a M1 Must see C1 x 4C2
this, oe (must see
4
C2) M1

x3 M1
prod of any ÷ 10C3 any
3 probs × 3 no. ÷ 10C3
or add 3 or 120 M1
A1 prods of 3
probs
NB
3
C2
x0.6x0.42
NB scores
Incorrect M0M1A0

methods

M0M0A0:

[3]

with no
other wking
Examiner’s Comments
An incorrect method, that
gained no marks

was
The fact that the answer is
given in the question was
an issue for some
candidates. Some lost
marks because they did not
show enough working. For
example, P(RRG or GRG or
GGR)
is
insufficient working
to gain the marks because
the answer is given in the
question. Some candidates
unwittingly gave a circular
argument. They

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

used to find

and then used

.
Candidates need to be
advised to take care to
ensure that, when an
answer is given in the
question, they do not
assume this answer in their
solution, and that they show
all necessary steps.
A few candidates
(incorrectly) used the
binomial distribution, giving
3 × 0.6 × 0.42 = 0.288.
Then they rounded this to
0.3 to match the given
answer.
Most candidates used
probabilities, while some
used combinations. Either
method is acceptable.

i b

oe B1 May be May be
or 0.167 (3 sf) seen in implied by
table or ans to
M1 workng mean
Σxp
≥ 2 non-
zero terms
correct,

ft their

A1ft If ÷ 4:
M0

M1
ft their

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

Σx2p (= 3.8)
(x – "1.8")
≥ 2 non-
attempte
zero terms
d all 4 M
correct,
values 1

M1 ft their .
2
̶ “1.8”
A1 If ÷ 4:
M0
Σ(x –
[6]
any no – "1.8")2p ≥
their μ2, 3
dep +ve terms M
result correct 1
cao

Examiner’s Comments
Most candidates answered
this question correctly. A
few found P(X = 3)
incorrectly but used a
correct method for E(X) and
Var(X). Others simply
ignored P(X = 3) and gave
(otherwise correct) working
using only three values of
X. Some omitted to subtract
(E(X))2 in their calculation of
Var(X). A few used the
binomial formulae np and
npq. Strangely, a few

candidates thought that

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii
M1

= 210 A1 210 × … or
÷ … M0A0
[2]
Examiner’s Comments
Some candidates ignored
the repeated colours and
just found 10!. Others
arranged the reds and
greens separately, giving 6!
× 4!.

Total 11

20 Assume masses normally B1(AO

distr. 1.2)
or similar
66% of masses lie
approximately within M1(AO both stated
μ±σ 3.1b) or implied
and greatest mass ≈ μ ± 3σ M1(AO
1.1)
sd = 0.5(120 – 96) (= 12)
A1(AO or greatest Allow 144
1.1) mass to 145
Greatest mass = 120 +
2×12 = 144 (g) [4]

Total 4

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

21 a Bin(3, 0.4) B1(AO

3.3)

[1]

b P(Pass) same for all B1(AO oe

candidates 2.4)

B1(AO oe Not just

Each candidate's result is 2.4) "Independe
indep of the other results nt"
[2]

c eg Some candidates may B1(AO oe; or eg

be more able than others 3.5b) 'work
harder'

[1]

d 0.288 B1(AO BC
3.4)

[1]

e 0 & 3, 1 & 2, 2& 1, 3 seen M1(AO all correct

or implied 3.1a)

A1(AO
0.216×0.216 + 0.432×0.36 3.4)
+ 0.288×0.6 + 0.064
A1(AO
= 0.439 (3 sf) 1.1)

[3]

Total 8

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

22 a 14.9 (3 sf) B1(AO BC

1.1)

[1]

b 0.975 seen or implied M1(AO Other

1.1a) solutions
are
c = 27.8, b = 12.2 (3 sf) A1(AO possible
1.1)

[2]

Total 3

23 a M1(AO1.
1)

A1(AO1. Must see

1) this step

[2]

b M1(AO1.
1a)

A1(AO1.
1)

[2]

Total 4

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

24 a M1(AO1. Attempt at
1) evaluating
P ( X = 40)
A1(AO1.
1)

[2]

b M1(AO3. Attempt Σ Numerical

1a) probabilitie sums may
s of all be
A1(AO1. even evaluated
1) values BC
Correct throughout
A1(AO1. expression
1)

M1(AO1.
1)

Attempt Σ
A1(AO3. probabilitie
2a) s for
X = 2, 4,6,8

B1(AO2.
1)
For a clear
solution
allowing
the line of
reasoning
to be
followed,
[6]
with each
component
of the
conditional
probability
found
clearly

Total 8

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

25 a N (178, 82 ) and X < 194 oe M1(AO1. Soi

P( X <194) = A1(AO1. BC
0.977(249868...) 1)

A1(AO1.
0.977249868...3 = 0.933 (3 1)
s.f.)
[3]

b E.g. |inflection –mean| M1(AO1. E.g. 170 – Figures are

E.g. (97.5th percentile – 1a) 163 illustrative
mean) E.g. (176 only

E.g. (99.7th percentile – – 163)

A1(AO1.
0.3th percentile) 1) E.g. (183
– 145)
= 6 to 7 E1(AO2.
4)
E.g. Point of inflection is 1
sd from mean Statement
E.g. 95% of values within [3] matching
(approx) 2 sds of mean method
E.g. Almost all within used
(approx) 3 sds of mean

Total 6

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

26 a Symmetrical, high in B1(AO2. Any two of Not just bell

middle, tails off at ends 4) these shaped

[1]

b (a)P(35 < m < 45) = 0.296 M1(AO3. Correct

4) probability
attempted
Predicted no. = 30 A1(AO1.
1) Allow 29.6
or ‘29 or
[2] 30’

c (b)P(m < 25) = 0.0122 M1(AO3. Correct

4) probability
attempted
Predicted no. = 1 A1(AO1.
1) Allow 1.2 or
‘1 or 2’
[2]

d 29.6 close to 29 and 1.2 B1(AO3. Both OR B1

close to 0 5a) needed Model
Hence model (could be) predicts
suitable [1] some
masses
below 25 g,
hence not
suitable

e E.g. Weather may cause B1(AO3. Any

different distribution 5b) sensible
reason why
[1] next year
may be
different

Total 7

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

27 0.6 × 0.3 or 0.6 × 0.1 or 0.3 M1 Any correct OR

× 0.1 (AO3.1a) product seen, M1
oe 0.62 +
0.32 +
0.12 (=
M1 0.46)
0.6 × 0.3 + 0.6 × 0.1 + 0.3 × (AO1.1) Fully correct
0.1 oe A1 method M1 0.5 ×
(AO1.1) (1-‘0.46’)
= 0.27
[3]

Total 3

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

28 a y7 + 7xy6 + 21x2 y5 + 35x3 B2 B1 for three

y4 (AO1.1 terms correct
1.1)

[2]

b 21x2 y5 = 35x3 y4 M1 Equate their

(AO3.1a) terms in
x2 y5 and x3 y4
A1
or 0.6 (AO1.1)

[2]

c B1
(AO3.3)
and

M1 Connect to
Let and , then (AO3.4) part (b)

E1
(AO2.1) AG
so from part (b)
21p2 (1–p)5 = 35 p3 (1– p)4
and P(L = 2) =P(L = 3) [3]

Total 7

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

29 M1 dep* Standardise and equate to

Φ–1, allow wrong sign, σ2,
1–, cc etc

A1 All correct apart possibly

from value of Φ–1

B1 1.645 seen anywhere, allow

–1.645, can be implied

[σ = 0.0182… ≈ 6/329] *M1 Solve to find σ, or eliminate

σ, dependent on first M1

M1 Standardise with μ = 1.03,

use Φ, answer < 0.5, allow
√ errors

= 1 – 0.8635 = 0.1365 or A1 Final answer in range

13.6(5)% [0.1355, 0.137] or [13.55%,
13.7%], must be from
positive σ, not from σ2
0.1333 from σ = 0.018 is
5+A0

Examiner's Comments

There were many fully

correct answer to this
question, with only a few
making the usual mistakes
such as sign errors, use of
σ2 instead of σ, or 0.05
instead of 1.645.
13.6(5)%.

Total 6

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

30 i (a) 0.414(2) B1
Examiner's Comments

This question was

answered correctly by many
candidates. A few read the
wrong value from the table.
Some used the formula
rather than the tables,
which took considerable
time and gave much scope
for arithmetical errors.
25
i (b) 0.4142 – 0.2677 M1 C14 × 0.411 × 0.614 or their (i) – 0.2677, dep
+ve result: M1

i = 0.1465 or 0.147 (3 sf) A1

allow 0.146 Examiner's Comments

This question was

answered correctly by many
candidates. A few read the
wrong values from the
table. Those who used the
formula were largely
successful.

i (c) 25 × 0.6 × 0.4 or 15 – 9 M1 Allow √(25 × 0.6 × 0.4) or

(ie from np(1 - p)) 2.45 for M1 Examiner's Comments
=6
Most candidates recognised
that the relevant formula is
npq and gave the correct
answer. However, a few
attempted to start from first
principles, using

∑x2p – (∑xp)2. None of

these candidates
understood the formula they
were attempting to use and
none gained any marks.

ii 24
Cy × 0.724–y – 0.3y oe B1 Allow other letters for y

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii (24C8 × 0.716 × 0.38 =) 0.160 B1 Allow 0.16 0.16(0) scores only the
(3 sf) second B1 No M-mark for
the correct express'n

Examiner's Comments

The most common error

was the omission of the
expression for P(Y = y).
The cause for this may
have been ignorance of
what the question meant, or
it may have been that
candidates simply did not
read the question carefully
enough.

iii (0.82)2 + (2 × 0.8 × 0.2)2 + M2 M1 for any correct term or

(0.22)2 oe or 0.642 + 0.322 + 0.042 or value of term

iii A1
Examiner's Comments

This question proved too

difficult for most candidates.
Many found some of P(Z =
0), P(Z = 1) and P(Z = 2),
but did not proceed to
square the values they had
found. Some doubled,
rather than squared, their
probabilities. Others found
only two of these
probabilities but then
squared and added them
correctly.

Total 10

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

31 i (a) Binomial seen or implied M1 by use of table or

If is interpreted
consistently as 0.6 or 0.66
or 0.67 or 0.7, max marks:
(i)(a) M1M1A0 (i)(b) B0
(i)(c) B1ft B1ft (ii)
B1M1M1A0

Eg 0.6228 seen

i 0.6228 – 0.3497 M1

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

i = 0.273 (3 sf) A1

Examiner's Comments

Many candidates used

incorrect versions of ,
such as 0.6, 0.66 and
0.666. Some did so
consistently throughout the
question. Others varied

their version of in different

parts. Some of those using
0.66 had to resort to the
column for 0.65 in the
binomial table. When
fractions are so easily
handled by calculators, it is
difficult to understand why
candidates shy away from

using .
A few actually appeared to

believe that , but

others seemed to be
(consciously or
unconsciously) using a
rounded decimal.
A few candidates treated
the situation as geometric
rather than binomial.

Some candidates omitted

the binomial coefficient.
Others just read a single
value (0.6228) from the
table.

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

i (b) 0.3497 or 0.350 (3 sf) B1 NB 0.3498 (from 0.6228 –

0.273) rounds to 0.350 so
B1

Examiner's Comments

Only candidates using

and using the tables
succeeded in this part. A
few found 1 – their answer
to part (i)(a) or 1 – 0.6228
(from the tables).

i (c) 6 B1ft

i 2 B1ft Examiner's Comments NB 2, 6 B0B0 unless

labelled correctly
Those who used np and
npq generally gained both
marks. Those who tried to
use Σxp and Σx2p – μ2
generally gained neither
mark.

ii 27 seen B1 not necessarily in a

statement

ii M1

ii M1 or attempt eg P(X1 = 1) ×
P(X2 = 8) × P(X3 = 9),

P(X1 = 2) × P(X2 = 7) × P(X3

= 9),

P(X1 = 3) × P(X2 = 6) × P(X3

= 9), etc

≥3 sets with X1 + X2 + X3 =
18 (not nec'y added) M1

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii = 0.161 (3 sf) A1 Examiner's Comments

Despite the broad hint, few

candidates seemed to
understand what was
required, and the simple

method using B(27, ) was

seen infrequently. Some
attempted to list some
triples which add up to 18,
but soon gave up. Many of
these failed to find the
probabilities of their triples,
which could have gained
them a mark. A few thought
that just 6, 6, 6 was
enough. Others counted
triples, and those who were
persistent arrived at a

probability of .
Unfortunately this method
ignores the fact that the
triples are not equally likely,
and so gained no marks.

Total 10

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

32 i 2k + 3k + 4k + 5k = 1 oe B1 or 14k = 1 oe “= 1” is
essential
Allow verification, eg stating
Examiner's Comments that

This part was also

answered well. In questions
like this one, where the
answer is given, the main
problem is ensuring that a
complete solution is given.
For example, the solution
2 + 3 + 4 + 5 = 14, hence
, was deemed to
be insufficient. The
intermediate statement 14k
= 1 was required. A few
candidates used a
verification method, which
was accepted.

ii B1 ≥ 3 correct 2k, 6k, 12k, 20k B1

ii Σxp M1 ≥ 3 correct terms added 2k + 6k + 12k + 20k or 40k

M1
÷ 4 M0A0

ii A1

Examiner's Comments

A few candidates gave

probabilities of
,
effectively using the formula
kx, rather than k(x + 1).
Others had all four

probabilities equal to .

Total 4

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

33 i (a) 1.25 oe B1 Examiner's Comments If incorrect p used

consistently in all parts of
This part was answered qu 5, no mks in (i)(a) & (b)
correctly by almost all but can score M–marks in
candidates. A few (ii) and (iii).
unnecessarily attempted to
use ∑xp, sometimes
successfully.

i (b) 0.8965 – 0.6328 M1

i = 0.264 (3 sf) A1 Answer which rounds to

or 0.264 (3 sf) 0.264

Examiner's Comments

Most candidates answered

this correctly, using either
the tables or the formula. A
few just read 0.8965 from
the table without subtracting
0.6328.

ii M1 B(10. 0.25) seen or implied

ii Answer which rounds to M1 Table or formula with n = 10

0.244 used M1

ii M1 2 × (attempt P(1, 0) alone),

(NOT 2 × (P(1,0) + P(0,0))
M1
If P(sum ≤ 2), all three M- 0.244 (3 sf) A1
mks are available, but for
3rd M1, must be 2 × (P(1,0) P(X ≤ 2) = 0.526 from table
+ P(2,0)) only n = 10
M1M1M1A0

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii A1 Ans 0.150 probably SC P(X = 2) answer 0.282:

M1M1M0A0 but check B1
working
Ans 0.188 probably
M0M1M1A0 but check
working

Examiner's Comments

Some correct solutions

were seen. A small number
of candidates gave an
elegant method, using
B(10, 0.25). However, most
candidates gave partially
correct solutions. Common
such attempts were those
which omitted (P(X = 0))2 or
omitted one case of P(sum
= 0) × (P(sum = 1) or
doubled (P(X = 0))2 as well
as doubling P(sum = 0) ×
(P(sum = 1). Some
candidates found P(sum >
2) or P(sum = 2). Others
just added P(X = 0) + P(X =
1).

iii Use of 0.2637 or 0.264 M1 or their (i)(b) SC allow 10C3×(1 – ‘0.282’)7

× ‘0.282’3

10
iii C3 × (1 – ‘0.2637’)7 × M1 ft (i)(b) allow ft their (ii) for M0M1
‘0.2637’3 this M1 only (0.282 comes from P(3
totals = 2))

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

iii = 0.258 (3 sf) A1 Correct ans, no working:

M1M1A1

Examiner's Comments

Some candidates used B(5,

0.25). Others understood
that a different value of p
was required, but chose the
answer to (ii) instead of (i)
for that value. Others
misread the question to
read “10 such sums are
chosen …” and found
P(exactly three values of
(X1 + X2) are 2).

Total 10

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

34 i 2k + 4k + 6k + 8k = 1 M1 or 2 + 4 + 6 + 8 = 20 M1 Must see correct wk’g for

Examiner's Comments ,

Many candidates argued in

a circle, using the given

answer to

find k and then using this

value of k to derive the

answer . Others simply

verified that if

, and the

other probabilities are in

proportion, then their sum is
1. Neither of these methods
scored any marks. Many

started with and

continued with
. A few found

as the

probability for each of the

other three values.

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

i A1 Must see both for A1 otherwise M0A0

AND or 2k + 4k + 6k + 8k = 20k
AG M1
A1 (even if tested by showing

that gives Σp = 1)

Just showing

ii M1 ≥ 3 terms correct ft their Allow i.t.o. k for M1 ÷ 4 M0

values of p,
dep Σp = 1

Examiner's Comments

Most candidates answered

this standard question well.
Incorrect probabilities from
(i) were allowed, so long as
their sum was 1. In the
calculation of Var(X) a few
candidates omitted to
subtract (E(X))2 and others
subtracted E(X). The usual
error of dividing by 4 was
occasionally seen. A few
candidates assumed that
the probabilities were each
0.25. Some used a formula
for the mean and/or
variance of the binomial
distribution or the geometric
distribution.

ii A1 cao

ii M1 ≥ 3 terms correct; ft their Allow ito k for M1M1 ÷ 4 M0

values of p; NOT – m2 ÷ 4
dep Σp = 1

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii M1 ft their values of p; dep +ve √4 = 2 lose final A1, not

result & Σp = 1 cao ISW, unless labelled sd

ii A1

Total 7

35 M1 Standardise with σ, μ at z not used, e.g. equated to

least once, ignore cc, √ 0.0228 and 0.9332 or
errors, equate to z 0.5092 and 0.8246: max
M0M1

A1 Both LHS and signs of RHS One z, one not: M1A0B0

correct

B1 Both z-values correct to 3

M1 Correct method for solution Withhold if elimination done

wrongly

Solve to get A1 μ ∈ [145.95, 146.05) www √ σ or σ2: can get

M1A0B1M1A1A0

μ = 146, σ = 2 A1 μ ∈ [1.995, 2.005) or μ2 = 4 cc: M1A0B1M1A0A0

www

Examiner's Comments

A very confident start to the

paper by many. Fully
correct answers were
common, though inevitably
there were some who made
sign errors or who failed to
use the tables in reverse.

Total 6

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

36 i M1 Standardise with μ and σ

and equate to Φ–1, allow σ2
but not √n, allow 1–, cc,
wrong signs. P(…): M0
here. But can recover both
marks from part (ii).

i B1 [0.954, 0.955] seen

Examiner's Comments

Placing a question about

finding normal parameters
in the context of a
frequency distribution did
not worry most candidates,
though some inevitably
attempted to use a factor of
√100 in the standard
deviation. Signs were
generally well handled, and
the correct answers were
often seen. Only a few used
0.17 or 0.25 in their
equations, but continuity
corrections in this context
continue to be seen quite
often. If the distribution is
stated to be normal then a
continuity correction must
not be used.

ii M1 Standardise as in (i) but do

not give if “1 –” or wrong
signs in either equation

ii B1 [0.674, 0.675] seen. (Other

errors lead to loss of A
marks.)

ii Solve to get σ = 12.3 A1 σ, a.r.t. 12.3, cwo

[12.278]

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii μ = 51.7(18) A1 μ, a.r.t. 51.7, cwo [NB:

CARE! either or both can
be obtained from wrong
equns.]
{note for scoris zoning – (i)
to be visible in marking (ii)}

Examiner's Comments

Placing a question about

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

iii Based on a sample / small B1 Any similar comment, e.g.

sample, etc “frequencies not
probabilities” (but not just “n
is small”) and no wrong
comments. Not “because
data is grouped”. No
scattergun.

Examiner's Comments

Many candidates realised

that the probabilities were
based on only a sample
rather than on the whole
population. However, there
were also many who
attempted to use a familiar
answer to a different
question, namely the
routine answer to S1
questions about why
calculations of sample
mean and variance were
not exact: “you don't know
the exact data values, only
the ranges”. Others said
“it's only approximately a
normal”, even though it was
clearly stated in the
question that the
distribution was normal.

Total 7

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

37 i Allocate 4-digit number to B1 “DVD” & “4 digits / 1 to Not allocate “random”

each DVD; 9000 / sequentially” etc numbers, unless
must be mentioned subsequently sorted
somewhere

i Select using random B1 Mention random numbers If “pick random numbers in

numbers range 1 to 9000”, must
mention repeats

i Ignore random numbers B1 Unbiased method, mention

outside range of “outside range” or
“repeats”

Examiner's Comments

Many scored full marks

here, but some failed to
give sufficient detail. DVDs
should be numbered
“sequentially”, or “from 1 to
9000”, or similar; it should
be stated that numbers
falling outside the range 1
to 9000 are rejected; and
“select numbers randomly”
is not an acceptable
alternative to “select using
random numbers”.

ii B(100, 0.24) ≈ N(24, 18.24) M1 N(attempt at np)

ii A1 Both parameters correct Allow 18.24 / 100 A1 but

then M0A0

ii M1 Standardise with their np Allow cc / √ errors.

and √npq or npq

ii A1 Both cc correct and √npq

used

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii = 0.1461 A1 Answer, a.r.t. 0.146

Examiner's Comments

This was invariably

answered well, with a very
large number of candidates
choosing the correct
continuity correction.

Total 8

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

38 i (a) Binomial seen or implied B1 by tables or 10C3 or 10C7 or by 0.25a × 0.75b (a + b =

10)

i 0.7759 – 0.5256 or 10C3 × M1

(1 – 0.25)7 × 0.253

i = 0.250 (3 sf) A1 Allow 0.25

Examiner's Comments

This question was usually

answered correctly, usually
by the formula and
sometimes using tables. A
few candidates omitted the
binomial coefficient while
others only read one value
(0.7759) from the table, i.e
P(X ≤ 3) ). Others found 1 -
0.7759.

i (b) 1 – 0.5256 or M1 or P(X = 3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10) NOT 1 – 0.7759 (P(X > 3)

all correct terms from table)

i 1 – ((1 – 0.25)10 + 10(1 – A1 Allow 10C8 instead of 10C2

0.25)9 × 0.25
+ 10C2(1 – 0.25)8 × 0.252) Examiner's Comments
= 0.4744 or 0.474 (3 sf)
A few candidates found 1 -
0.7759 (i.e. P(X > 3), or just
gave 0.7759 as the answer.
Others found 1 - P(X = 2).
Some (correctly) used the
formula to find 1 - P(X = 0,
1 or 2). This is not a
particularly long method,
but it is significantly longer
than finding 1 - P(X ≤ 2)
using the tables. Others
attempted various methods
not involving the binomial
distribution at all.

ii 0.4744 or 0.474) or 0.5256 M1 Their (i)(b) seen, or result of eg B(6, 0.474) or P(X ≥ 3) =
or 0.526 seen 1–(i)(b) seen 0.474

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii 1 – (1 – “0.4744”)6 oe M1 or P(X = 1,2,3,4,5,6) all

correct terms seen

ii = 0.979 (3 sf) A1f ft from (i)(b)

Examiner's Comments

A good number of
candidates answered this
question correctly. Many,
however, found this very
typical question difficult, not
appreciating its two-layered
structure. These candidates
gave answers such as

Other candidates used their

answer to part (i)(b) (thus
gaining one mark) but used
it in incorrect ways, such as
dividing it by 6 or by raising
it to the power of 6. Some
subtracted it from 1, which
is correct, but failed to take
the next two steps correctly.
A few candidates used their
answer to part (i)(a) instead
of (i)(b).

Total 8

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

39 i (a) X∼B(30, 0.05) seen or B1 eg by 0.8122 or 1 – 0.5535 If n = 15;

implied or 0.95r × 0.05s (r, s > 1) B(15, 0.05) B1
Allow B(30, 0.95) or B(30,
0.5) for B1 30 × 0.05 alone
insufficient for B1

i P(X > 2) = 1 – 0.8122 alone M1 n

Cr insufficient for B1 1 – (0.9515 + 15 × 0.9514 ×
or 0.05 +15C2 × 0.9513 × 0.052)
1 – (0.9530 + 30 × 0.9529 × M1
0.05 +
30
C2 × 0.9528 × 0.052)

i = 0. 1878 or 0.188 (3 sfs) A1 = 0.0362 A0

Examiner's Comments

A few misread the question,

using n = 15 throughout,
instead of both n = 30 and n
= 15.
The problem here was not
generally the use of the
binomial distribution but the
need to see through the
context and recognise that
a binomial calculation was
appropriate. In this part
there was a distinct
advantage to using tables
rather than the formula
(which is a much longer
method in this case). Some
candidates chose to use the
formula and made
arithmetical errors. Using
either method, some
candidates used B(30,
0.95) instead of B(30, 0.05).
Others used the correct
distribution but, in order to
find P(X < 2), they found 1 –
P(X = 1) instead of 1 – P(X
≤ 1). Some omitted the
binomial coefficients.

i (b) Addition method: B1 NB eg 0.0362 implies B(15, Subtraction methods:

X∼B(30, 0.05) & Y∼B(15, 0.05) see below X
0.05) stated or implied ∼B(30,0.05)&Y∼B(15,0.05)
stated or impl B1

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

i P(X = 2) = (0.8122 – M1 P(X = 2) = (0.8122 –

0.5535) 0.5535) or 30C2 × 0.9528 ×
or 30C2 × 0.9528 × 0.052 or 0.052
0.2587/6 or 0.2587/6
OR P(Y > 1) = (1 – 0.9515) OR P(Y = 0) = 0.9515
or 0.5367 or 0.4633 M1

i “0.2587/6” x “0.5367” or M1 fully correct method for P(X fully correct method for P(X
0.1388 = 2) × P(Y ≥ 1) = 2) × P(Y = 0)
“0.2587” × “0.4633” or
0.1199/8 M1

i P(X > 2) + P(X = 2) × P(Y > M1 [their (a) + any p] alone, but 1 – (P(X = 0,1) + P(X = 2) ×
1) dep 1st M1 P(Y = 0)) = 1 – (“0.5535” +
= “0.1878” + “0.1388” alone “0.1199”)
OR P(X > 2) – P(X = 2) ×
P(Y = 0)) = (1 – “0.5535”) –
“0.1199”
dep 1st M1 M1

i = 0. 327 (3 sf) AG A1 = 0. 327 (3 sf) AG

i For A1 must see correct If ans 0.327, check whether Do not use marks from a
wking or 0.3265/6… it comes from a correct mixture of 3rd column and
method (possibly not in MS) other columns. Decide
or clearly comes from an which column would give
incorrect method most marks and mark
eg (0.4465 + 0.2587) × according to that method.
0.4633 = 0.327
(ie (P(X > 2) + P(X = 2)) x
P(Y = 0)
B1M1M0M0A0

i If n = 15 for both distr’s, see

next page
NB If 0.1392 seen, it comes
from given answer – (i)(a)
(ie 0.3270 – 0.1878).

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

i Alternative scheme for the If n = 15 for both distr’s

case where B(15, 0.05) B0
n = 15 is used for both
distr’s P(X = 2) = 15C2 × 0.052 ×
0.9513 or 0.1348
OR P(Y > 1) = 1 – 0.9515 or
0.5367 M1
“0.1348”x“0.5367” or 0.0723
correct method M1
their (i)(a) + “0.0732” Dep
1st M1 M1
= 0.1085 A0
NB Also mark subtraction
methods if seen.

i Examiner's Comments

A few misread the question,

using n = 15 throughout,
instead of both n = 30 and n
= 15.
Few candidates were able
to work their way through
this part correctly. Some
candidates found P(Y ≥ 1) =
1 – P(Y = 0 or 1) or P(Y ≥ 1)
= 1 – P(Y = 1). Some
candidates were close to
being correct, but found P(X
> 2) + P(X = 2) × P(Y = 0)
instead of P(X > 2) + P(X =
2) × (1 – P(Y = 0)). Many
complicated matters by
using the same letter (X) for
the number of defective
mugs in the second sample
as well as in the first.

ii Any use of 0.327 or their M1

(i)(b) for 1st M1

ii (1 – 0.327)3 × 0.327 + (1 – M1 (0.5535 + 0.2586 × 1 – 0.6735 – (1 – 0.6733) oe

0.327)4 × 0.327 0.4633)3 × 0.327 +
Allow “correct” use of their (0.5535 + 0.2586 × Allow any use of their (i)(b)
(i)(a) or 0.4633)4 × 0.327 for 1st M1 then if “correct”
(i)(b) for 2nd M1 use, also 2nd M1

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii = 0.167 (3 sf) A1 Allow use of their (i)(a) in

“correct” method for
M0M1A0
No marks for use of 0.95 &
0.05

ii Examiner's Comments

A few misread the question,

using n = 15 throughout,
instead of both n = 30 and n
= 15.
This is an example of a
common, “two-layered” type
of question, requiring the
use of a previously obtained
figure as the value of p in a
geometric (or binomial)
calculation. Candidates
would benefit from being
taught to look out for such
questions. Many candidates
used the correct geometric
structure but with p = 0.05
or with a probability equal to
their answer to part (i)(a)
instead of (i)(b). Others
attempted to use a binomial
distribution instead of a
geometric.

Total 11

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

40 i 1 × 0.4 + 3 × 0.3 + 5 × 0.2 + M1 ≥ 3 terms correct ÷ eg 4 M0

7 × 0.1

i =3 A1 Use of Σ(x – )2 × p:

i 12× 0.4 + 32× 0.3 + 52× 0.2 M1 ≥ 3 terms correct ÷ eg 4 M0 22 × 0.4 + 0 + 22 × 0.2 + 42
+ 72× 0.1 × 0.1 M2
or 2 correct non-zero terms
M1

i – “3”2 M1 Dep +ve result

i =4 A1
Examiner's Comments

Most candidates answered

this part well, although all
the usual errors were seen,
such as dividing Σx2p by 4
(or by 16), omitting to
subtract μ2 or subtracting
just μ. Those who
attempted Σ(x – μ)2p usually
made errors.

ii 775, 757, 577 B1 Must show all three Allow repeats, eg list of 6
orders
Alt method X1: 5 or 7, X2: 5
or 7; X3: 5 or 7
or X1, X2, X3 can be 5 or 7
B1

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii B1
Examiner's Comments

Some candidates failed to

write down the possible
sets of values for X1, X2
and X3 as requested,
giving, for example, just 5,
7, 7. Some of these
nevertheless obtained the
correct answer for the
probability, although many

gave . A good number of

candidates ignored the fact

that the values of X were
given in the table and made
long lists of irrelevant
combinations adding up to
19. A few attempted a
binomial calculation such as
7
C7 × 0.17 × 0.90. Some
candidates gave the
possible values of X1, X2
and X3, but then just gave
the given value of P(X1 = 7),
ie 0.1, ignoring the
condition that the total has
to be 19.

iii Binomial stated, or seen or B1 eg by 0.8r × 0.2s (r,s > 1) NB 0.0388 scores B1M0A0
implied with any n & p not just by nCr as it is 11C5 × 0.86× 0.85

11
iii C4 × 0.87 × 0.24 M1 Correct method

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

iii = 0.111 (3 sf) A1 Correct answer, no working

M1M1A1

Examiner's Comments

Many recognised that this is

a binomial calculation.
Some found P(5) instead of
P(4). Others omitted the
binomial coefficient. Some
candidates omitted this part
altogether, perhaps not
understanding what “Use
an appropriate formula …”
meant. (This wording was
intended to encourage
candidates to show their
working rather than just to
write down an unsupported
answer, obtained from the
binomial function on their
calculator).

Total 10

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