Warfare and Conflict: Nuclear weapons

rooted in deterrence theory, that the emergence peace. They are a tactic of last resort, but peace
of more nuclear states might in fact bring greater will be pursued separate to nuclear weapons.
stability to certain regions. India and Pakistan That said, they are an important and valuable
are both new nuclear states and, though some commodity to any defensive arsenal, so will
form of limited military conflict between the remain a significant factor in world politics for
two rivals is a distinct possibility, the risks of the foreseeable future.
a costly and unrestricted conventional conflict
has largely been nullified by the presence of SJM: As a historian, I would naturally be
nuclear armouries. reluctant to peer too deep into the future.
Likewise, Israel is another example: though What the historical record tells us, however, is
its status as a nuclear power has not been officially that the security framework within which nuclear
declared, the possibility of such states acquiring weapons have become so ingrained is remarkably
nuclear weapons might have reduced the stable, and that total war (as our grandfathers’ and
existential threat of invasion by one or more of its great-grandfathers’ generations twice knew it),
openly hostile neighbours. really does seem to be a relic of the industrial
age. Yet nuclear weapons are not a panacea for
MG: Nuclear weapons are essentially an ensuring world peace, as demonstrated by the
asymmetric tactic of choice: a single bomb proliferation of conventional conflicts since 1945.
offers a means of offsetting the balance of Real world peace rests on the ability of humans to
power. For large powers this is arguably less solve their political differences through under-
of an issue; for smaller powers it allows them standing, compassion and co-operation.
to punch above their weight and compete
with larger powers whose conventional armies BP: Since the beginning of the nuclear age,
dwarf their own. For this reason, a nuclear nuclear weapons were not designed to prevent
capability, regardless of its inherent difficulties all forms of violence, and have not done so.
and associated costs, is an attractive option The extent to which they have been central to
for medium and small-sized powers. the prevention of war between major powers
In these sorts of scenarios, just one power in since 1945 is also contested. They primarily
a region or conflict is likely to have a nuclear generated a vulnerability, from the moment
device, so the possibility of destabilisation is far when undetectable submarine-launched ballistic
greater. For this reason the proliferation activities missiles made it impossible to defend against
of the Pakistani nuclear scientist AQ Khan 5 a nuclear attack. Nuclear-weapon states have
took on a great significance, because he sold been attacked and lost wars against non-nuclear-
blueprints and technical equipment to aspiring weapon states, and actors willing to give their
5 AQ Khan states including Iran, North Korea and Libya life for a cause may not fear nuclear retaliation.
Abdul Qadeer Khan – with very real and frightening consequences. This is as true as it ever was.
is a Pakistani nuclear As scholars and citizens, we have a responsi-
physicist who in the Do you think that nuclear weapons will bility in building the future. Perpetuating
1970s headed a
ensure world peace in the future? overconfidence in the controllability and safety
uranium enrichment
of nuclear weapons allows for complacency. It
programme for his
country’s atomic bomb
MG: In a word: no. The deterrent effect of neglects the role of luck and failures in avoiding
project. In 2004 it was possession of a nuclear weapon is obvious and nuclear weapons use in the past. Beyond the
revealed that Khan had with historical precedent, but that does not mean security dimension, the question of the future
sold nuclear technology that irrational leaders won’t consider using them of nuclear weapons raises ethical and political
to states including Iran, either pre-emptively or for a specific purpose. issues about what kind of political communities
North Korea and Libya. While warfare increasingly moves towards we want to be in the eyes of future generations
the cyber domain and non-kinetic [electronic – and what we want to leave them.
or other remote technological] means, nuclear DISCOVER MORE
GETTY IMAGES

weapons remain the diametric opposite. They are

The BBC World Service series Witness includes
the red line that no state has crossed since August several episodes featuring first-person
1945, but this lack of use is not enough of an accounts of the Cuban Missile Crisis. All episodes are
argument to say that they have ensured world available online at [Link]/programmes/p02fj9yq

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