Climate change

The greenhouse effect is accepted scientific theory. There are certain gasses in the atmosphere cause
the sun's heat to be trapped and allow the surface of the planet to warm. Without it the surface of the
planet would be too cold for life to exist. To explain the images are quotes from NASA:
"Left: 1880-1889. Right: 2000-2009. These maps compare temperatures in each region of the world to
what they were from 1951 to 1980 ... Two-thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of
roughly 0.15 to 0.20 °C per decade”. These changes in temperature correlate with changes in CO2 levels.
CO2 is now at a record high of 400 ppm.

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What is Climate Change?
• The change in our climate and weather systems being
caused by the warming of the earth

• Today the earth is hotter than it has been in 2,000 years

• Climate Change is a global issue – it affects the whole

planet
Proportion of Greenhouse Gases (Natural vs Anthropomorphic)
• Carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere through burning fossil fuels (coal, natural
gas, and oil), solid waste, trees and other biological materials, and also as a
result of certain chemical reactions (e.g., manufacture of cement). Carbon
dioxide is removed from the atmosphere when it is absorbed by plants as part of
the biological carbon cycle.

• Methane (CH4) is emitted during the production and transport of coal, natural
gas, and oil. Methane emissions also result from livestock and other agricultural
practices and by the decay of organic waste in municipal solid waste landfills.

• Nitrous oxide(N2O) is emitted during agricultural and industrial activities,

combustion of fossil fuels and solid waste, as well as during treatment of
wastewater.

• Fluorinated gases: Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride,

and nitrogen trifluoride are synthetic, powerful greenhouse gases that are
emitted from a variety of industrial processes.
• Fluorinated gases are sometimes used as substitutes for
stratospheric ozone-depleting substances (e.g., chlorofluorocarbons,
hydrochlorofluorocarbons, and halons). These gases are typically emitted in
smaller quantities.
The Earth is kept much by gases in the atmosphere that retain heat.
These gases are referred to as greenhouses gases.

The greenhouse gases that have the

largest warming effect on the Earth are:
• carbon dioxide (below)
• water vapour (e.g. clouds)
Other gases including methane and
nitrogen oxides have less impact.

nitrogen oxides are released naturally

by bacteria in some habitats and also
by agriculture and vehicle exhausts.

Greenhouse gases together make up

less than 1% of the atmosphere.

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There are two factors which determine how much of an impact a greenhouse gas will
have in warming the atmosphere:

1. Ability to absorb long-wave radiation

Gases that have a greater capacity to absorb long-wave radiation will have a greater
warming impact (per molecule)
• Everything that has a temperature gives off electromagnetic radiation (light).
• Water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and other trace gases in Earth's atmosphere
absorb the longer wavelengths of outgoing infrared radiation from Earth's surface
• Heat resulting from the absorption of incoming shortwave radiation is emitted as
longwave radiation.
• Radiation from the warmed upper atmosphere, along with a small amount from
the Earth's surface, radiates out to space.
• Most of the emitted longwave radiation warms the lower atmosphere, which in
turn warms our planet's surface.

2. Concentration within the atmosphere

• The greater the concentration of a gas, the greater its warming impact will be within
the atmosphere
• The concentration of a gas will be determined by both its rate of release and
persistence (occurrence) within the atmosphere
The overall impact of a greenhouse gas will be determined by the combination of both these
factors
• Methane has a larger capacity to absorb long-wave radiation than carbon dioxide, but
is significantly less abundant
• Water vapor enters the atmosphere rapidly but only remains for short periods, while
carbon dioxide persists for years
• Human activity is increasing the amount of greenhouse gases (except water vapor) and
hence increasing their impact
Summary of Greenhouse Gas Impacts
 impact of a greenhouse gas

Ability to absorb long- abundance in the

wave radiation atmosphere
(especially infrared/heat)

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 impact of a greenhouse gas

Ability to absorb long- abundance in the

wave radiation atmosphere
(especially infrared/heat)

rate of release persistence

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 impact of a greenhouse gas

Ability to absorb long- abundance in the

wave radiation atmosphere
(especially infrared/heat) CO2 is very abundant making
up 400 ppm by volume of the
Methane has 33 times the effect atmosphere (0.04%)
of CO 2 (but is not very abundant)

rate of release persistence

Water vapor enters the atmosphere

very rapidly, but only remains for days
whereas CO2 persists for years.

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The greenhouse effect is a natural process whereby the atmosphere behaves like a
greenhouse to trap and retain heat
• This ensures the Earth maintains the moderate temperatures needed by organisms to
maintain life processes (homeostasis)
• Without a greenhouse effect, Earth’s temperatures would drop significantly at night in the
absence of direct sunlight

Video
The greenhouse effect (video)
How the Greenhouse Effect
Works
The greenhouse effect
functions to trap heat within The Greenhouse Effect
the atmosphere and hence
prevent rapid temperature
fluctuations
• Incoming radiation from the
sun is shorter wave radiation
(ultraviolet radiation and the
visible spectrum)
• The surface of the Earth
absorbs short wave radiation
and re-emits it at a longer
wavelength (i.e. infra-red /
heat)
• Greenhouse gases absorb
and re-radiate this longer
wave radiation and hence
retain the heat within the
atmosphere
How the greenhouse effect works
Approx. 25% of
solar radiation is
absorbed by the
atmosphere.
1

2
Approx. 75% of solar 4
radiation penetrates the Up to 85%* of re-emitted heat is captured
atmosphere and reaches by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
the Earth’s surface.

3 5
Heat passes back to the surface of
The surface of the Earth absorbs short- the Earth, causing warming
wave solar energy and re-emits at longer
wavelengths (as heat).

*This value, though variable, is known to be

rising; very likely the result of human activities. http://www.sumanasinc.com/webcontent/animations/content/globalcarboncycle.html
How the greenhouse effect works
Approx. 25% of
solar radiation is
absorbed by the
atmosphere.
1

2
Approx. 75% of solar 4
radiation penetrates the Up to 85%* of re-emitted heat is captured
atmosphere and reaches by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
the Earth’s surface.

3 5
Heat passes back to the surface of
The surface of the Earth absorbs short- the Earth, causing warming
wave solar energy and re-emits at longer
wavelengths (as heat).

*This value, though variable, is known to be

rising; very likely the result of human activities. http://www.sumanasinc.com/webcontent/animations/content/globalcarboncycle.html
How the greenhouse effect works (this diagram quantifies the effect in Watts / m2)

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While greenhouse gases occur naturally, man is increasing greenhouse gas
emission via a number of activities, including:
• Deforestation – the removal of trees means that less carbon dioxide is
removed from the atmosphere via photosynthesis
• Increased farming / agriculture – this involves land clearing for cattle
grazing, also ruminant cattle produce methane

The greenhouse gas that is increasing most rapidly in the atmosphere is

carbon dioxide and the main cause is combustion (burning)
• When fossil fuels (e.g. coal, oil, gas) are combusted to release energy,
carbon dioxide gas is released as a by-product
• The increased reliance on fossil fuels following the industrial revolution
has resulted in ~38% increase in CO 2 levels
• There are now efforts to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels by exploiting
alternative energy sources (e.g. solar power)
 Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector

(Data represents the distribution of greenhouse gas emission by economic sector in Canada, 2013)
A Year in the Life of Earth’s Carbon Dioxide (NASA) - video
The link between human emissions and atmospheric levels of CO2

Key points
• There is a strong correlation
between human emissions
and atmospheric levels of CO2
• As atmospheric CO2 levels
have increased the amount of
CO2 absorbed by carbon
sinks has increased (only
about 40% of emissions have
remained in the atmosphere)

Industrial revolution Large increases in

has started usage of fossil fuels

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Greenhouse gases play a pivotal role in determining global temperatures and
climate patterns due to their capacity to retain heat
• As these gases trap heat, increases in greenhouse gas concentrations should
correlate with an increase in global temperature
• Long term weather patterns (climate) may also be influenced by greenhouse
gas concentrations

Scientists predict that increases in greenhouse gas concentrations will lead to

an enhanced greenhouse effect, resulting in:
• More frequent extreme weather conditions (e.g. heat waves, cyclones, more
powerful tropical storms, etc.)
• Some areas to become more drought affected, while other areas become more
prone to periods of heavy rainfall
• Changes to circulating ocean currents – which may cause longer El Nino
(warming) and La Nina (cooling) events
Global temperatures and climate patterns are influenced by concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Global average temperatures are not directly

proportional to greenhouse gas concentrations. Other factors, e.g. sun spot
activity, have an impact global
average temperatures

increases in greenhouse gas concentrations will likely cause:

• higher global average temperatures
• more frequent and intense heat waves
• some areas becoming more prone to droughts
• some areas more prone to intense periods of rainfall and flooding
• tropical storms to be more frequent and more powerful
• Changes to ocean currents, e.g. weakening of the Gulf Stream would
mean colder temperatures in north-west Europe

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Global temperatures and climate patterns are influenced by concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Greenhouse Impacts:
There are many proposed environmental consequences associated with
an enhanced greenhouse effect, including:
• Disease spread – More temperate climates will increase the prevalence and spread of
pathogenic vectors (e.g. mosquitos)
• Ice caps melting – Higher temperatures are melting ice caps and reducing permafrosts,
releasing detritus trapped in ice
• Extreme weather conditions – Climate change is linked to an increase in extreme
weather (e.g. cyclones, tropical storms)
• Extinction – Changing climate will increase competition, leading to a loss of biodiversity
and extinction events
• Acidification of oceans – Rising atmospheric CO2 levels contribute to an increase in the
acidification of oceans
• Rising sea levels – Global warming is associated with rising sea levels, leading to the
displacement of communities
• Temperature increases – Greenhouse gas emissions are linked to an increase in average
global temperatures
• Habitat destruction – Changing climate conditions will lead to the destruction of
habitats and expansion of temperate species
Impacts

Water resources
Climate change will cause water shortages in many water-
scarce areas of the world

• Demand for water is increasing due to population growth and economic

development

• Substantial reduction of available water in many of the water-scarce areas of the

world, but increase in some other areas

• Freshwater quality would generally be degraded by higher water temperatures,

but this may be offset in some regions by increased flows
Agriculture
• Changes in temperatures and precipitation patterns will lead to
changes in crop yields

• Length of growing season will change

• Droughts, extreme events will decrease yields

• Biodiversity shifts – changes in crop varieties

• New pests and diseases

• Food security
Health

• Thermal stress – heat waves, cold spells

• Extreme events, weather disasters (personal injuries, damage &

disruption to infrastructure)

• Infectious diseases (malaria, dengue)

• Air pollution - impact of some air pollutants (SO2, CO, NO2, O3) on health
is more evident during the summer or high temperatures
Ecological systems
Biological systems have already been affected on the regional scale
Structure and functioning of ecological systems will be altered &
biodiversity will decrease especially in niche systems (e.g. alpine, arctic)
Coastal areas
• Most sensitive coasts - Beaches, salt marshes, mangrove swamps, deltas,
coral reefs, lagoons

Sea Level Rise

• Likely sea level rise during the 21st century - 5 mm per year
• Low lying areas inundated, small island states may disappear, salt water
intrusion into aquifers, floods
• Low-lying coastal cities - Shanghai, Jakarta, Tokyo, Manila, Bangkok,
Karachi, Mumbai, and Dhaka will be at the forefront of impacts
Species
Plant and animal ranges will shift poleward and up in elevation
Vulnerable species will be increasingly threatened by changing habitat and
food supply
Extreme events
• Hurricanes and storms - increase in tropical cyclone peak wind
intensities, mean and peak precipitation intensities
• Floods (Pakistan floods 2005)
• Droughts (Pakistan drought 1999-2001)
• Increased frequency of GLOFs and landslides
• Heat and cold waves (European heat wave 2003)
• Climatic variability
Link between global temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations on Earth.

The link between global temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations was
established by analyzing data over a long time period
• Ice cores taken from the Vostok station in Antarctica provide evidence of the
environmental conditions at the time of freezing
• The Vostok ice core is one of the longest drilled, reaching back 420,000 years
and covering the past four glacial cycles
• By analyzing the gas bubbles trapped in ice, historical CO2 levels and air
temperatures (via oxygen isotopes) can be deduced

Data collected from the Vostok ice core demonstrates that:

• There is a strong positive correlation between carbon dioxide concentrations
and temperature (↑ CO2 levels ∝ ↑ temperature)
• There have been fluctuating cycles of CO2 concentrations which appear to
correlate with global warm ages and ice ages
• Current concentrations of CO2 are higher than at any time recorded in the last
400,000 years
Link between global temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations on Earth.

Vostok Ice Core Data – Temperature versus Carbon Dioxide Concentration

Link between global temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations on Earth.
To deduce historic carbon dioxide concentrations and
temperatures ice cores are drilled in Antarctic ice sheets

Vostok ice core (pictured) drilled at a Russian monitoring

station in East Antarctica is an example of an ice core.

A cylinder of ice was collected by drilling from

to the bottom of the Antarctic ice sheet. The
total length of the core was 2083 meters.

The core shows annual layers, which can be used

to date the air bubbles trapped in the ice.
Analysis of the gas content of the
bubbles gives both the
concentration of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere and the air
temperature (from oxygen isotopes)
at the time ice was formed.
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Link between global temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations on Earth.

Evidence for a correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)

and average global temperatures

Key points
• The correlation is
supported by ice core
data over the last
400,000 years
• Temperature shows
greater variation than
CO2
• Most, but not all rises
and falls in CO2 have
correlated with
temperature rises and
falls
• The same trend has
been found in other ice
cores.

n.b. Vostock is a Russian monitoring station in East Antarctica

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There is a link between rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide since the start of the
industrial revolution 200 years ago and average global temperatures.

The industrial revolution introduced new manufacturing processes which significantly

increased mankind’s use of fossil fuels
• The burning of fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide as a by-product, leading to a
steady increase in its atmospheric concentration

When fuel emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global temperatures are
compared, the following trends are revealed:
• There is a strong positive correlation between increasing fossil fuel emissions and rising
atmospheric concentrations of CO2
• Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased ~38% since pre-industrial times (1800: ~
280 ppm ; 2010: ~ 380 ppm)
• About 40% of CO2 emissions have remained in the atmosphere, the rest has been
absorbed by carbon sinks (mainly oceans)
• This increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration correlates with an increase in
average global temperature
• While correlation does not equal causation, there is mounting evidence to suggest that
CO2 emissions are linked to global temperature changes (although other factors likely
also contribute)
There is a link between rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide since the start of the
industrial revolution 200 years ago and average global temperatures.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Atmospheric Concentrations

and Global Average Temperatures
There is a link between rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide since the start of the
industrial revolution 200 years ago and average global temperatures.

Evidence for a correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)

and average global temperatures

Key points
• global temperatures
show large variations
(for various reasons)
• (despite this) there is
strong support for
correlation between
atmospheric carbon
dioxide and global
temperatures

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Threats to coral reefs from increasing concentrations of dissolved carbon dioxide.

The oceans are a major carbon sink and absorb roughly a third of all human
produced (anthropomorphic) CO2 emissions
• CO2 solubility is temperature dependent (more soluble when cooler), so less
CO2 will be absorbed as temperatures rise

When oceans absorb atmospheric CO2, some of it will remain dissolved in a gaseous
state but most will be chemically modified:
• Carbon dioxide will combine with water to form carbonic acid, which dissociates
into hydrogen ions and hydrogen carbonate
• H+ ions will lower the ocean pH (acidification) and will also combine with free
carbonate ions to form more hydrogen carbonate
• With less free carbonate ions in the water, marine organisms are less able to
produce calcium carbonate (via calcification)
• Calcium carbonate is used to form the hard exoskeleton of coral and is also
present in the shells of certain molluscs
• Hence increasing concentrations of dissolved carbon dioxide threatens the
viability of coral reefs and certain molluscs
Threats to coral reefs from increasing concentrations of dissolved carbon dioxide.

Ocean–Atmosphere Carbon Dioxide Exchange (Normal vs elevated Atmospheric CO 2)

Threats to coral reefs from increasing concentrations of dissolved carbon dioxide.

CO2 Emissions and Ocean Acidification

Rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide are causing a decrease in the pH of
ocean water (ocean acidification)
• Since the start of the industrial revolution ocean pH has dropped from ~8.2 to
~8.1 (roughly a 30% increase in acidity)
• It is predicted that if current conditions continue, oceanic pH could fall to roughly
7.8 by the turn of the century (2100)

The decrease in ocean pH is predicted to threaten the survival of marine organisms

that require calcium carbonate
• An increase in the concentration of H+ ions means there are less free carbonate
ions available for calcification
• Shells and coral exoskeletons are also likely to begin to dissolve when ocean
conditions are more acidic
• Experiments have shown that increasing water acidity correlates with the
significant thinning of shells over several weeks
• Corals, sea urchins and shelled molluscs do not exist in regions with high levels of
dissolved CO2 (e.g. near hydrothermal vents)
Threats to coral reefs from increasing concentrations of dissolved carbon dioxide.

Relationship between Carbon Dioxide Levels, Ocean Acidity and Shell Thickness
Threats to coral reefs from increasing concentrations of dissolved carbon dioxide.

Consequences of Ocean Acidification

An increase in ocean acidification as a result of elevated
anthropomorphic CO2 emissions could have several consequences:
• The disappearance of coral reefs could result in a loss of shoreline
protection and habitat, altering coastal ecosystems
• The loss in revenue from tourism and food industries is predicted to
cost economies upwards of $1 trillion by 2100
• Increasing the dissolved CO2 levels in oceans would cause invasive
species of algae to flourish (more photosynthesis)
Threats to coral reefs from increasing concentrations of dissolved carbon dioxide.

Summary of Ocean Acidification (video)

Threats to coral reefs from increasing concentrations of dissolved carbon dioxide.

Ocean acidification – the causes and effects

At risk Benefit
Marine calcifying species, including oysters, Photosynthetic algae and sea grasses
clams, sea urchins, shallow water corals, deep
sea corals, and calcareous plankton.*
Need to absorb carbonate ions from Low CO2 is a limiting factor for photosynthesis
seawater to make the calcium carbonate in
their skeletons.

The pteropod is a tiny sea creature about the size of a small pea. Pteropods are a major food source for
many animals including North Pacific juvenile salmon. The photos below show what happens to a
pteropod’s shell when placed in sea water with pH and carbonate levels projected for the year 2100.

*Shelled organisms are often keystone species and therefore the entire food web may also be
at risk.
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Carbon footprint
A carbon footprint is defined as the total amount of greenhouse gases produced to directly
and indirectly support human activity
• It is usually expressed in equivalent tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2)

A carbon footprint is therefore the sum of all CO2 emissions that were induced by a person's
activity within a given timeframe:
• All fossil fuel consumption (including petrol, electricity, natural gas)
• All transportation (besides human-powered activities like walking and cycling)
• All emissions associated with consumables (e.g. the production of a cheeseburger can
result in ~ 3 kg of CO2 emissions)

Efforts to reduce a carbon footprint of an individual, household or company usually

involves reducing, reusing and recycling