BRANCHING OUT WITH PROBABILITY: EXPLORING TREE DIAGRAMS
Grade 9 Mathematics Lesson
Keywords for the lesson:
Probability Tree Diagram
Compound Events
Independent Events
Dependent Events
With Replacement
Without Replacement
Conditional Probability
Use these keywords to find resources that
help answer today’s essential question:
INTRODUCTION
Exploring Probability through Tree Diagrams
Ever wondered how likely you are to win a game by
picking colored counters from a bag?
Probability helps us understand and predict
outcomes.
Today, we'll use a special visual tool called a tree
diagram to explore how probability works when we
choose counters from a bag, with and without
replacing them (SplashLearn, 2023).
01
LEARNING OUTCOMES
By the end of this lesson, you will be able to:
Construct probability tree diagrams accurately.
Calculate probabilities using tree diagrams.
Explain the difference between independent and
dependent events.
Analyze results of probability experiments using
inquiry-based approaches (Tawfik, Hung, &
Giabbanelli, 2020).
02
ESSENTIAL QUESTION & EXPLORATION RESOURCES
Essential Question:
How does changing one simple rule—putting a counter
back or not—affect the probability of future events?
How can a tree diagram help us visualize and calculate
these differences?
To explore and answer this question, use the following
student-friendly resources:
Khan Academy – Tree Diagrams and Conditional
Probability
OnlineMathLearning – Probability with and without
Replacement
03
HANDS-ON EXPLORATION
Colored Counters
You are given colored counters of 4 different colors :
Part A (With Replacement): Create a tree diagram
showing the outcomes of selecting a counter twice.
Part B (Without Replacement): Create a tree diagram
showing outcomes of selecting a counter three times.
Questions (for each part):
How many total outcomes are there?
What's the probability of selecting the same color twice?
What’s the probability of selecting yellow at least once?
04
ASSESSING YOUR UNDERSTANDING
Your learning will be assessed through:
Accuracy and completeness of your tree diagrams.
Correct calculation and reasoning of probabilities.
Clear explanations of how replacement affects probabilities.
Example Response:
"Without replacement, the probability decreases because
fewer counters remain, showing dependent events."
05
CONCLUSION
Today, we've explored probability using tree diagrams and
discovered how dependent and independent events differ
based on replacement. Through this guided inquiry, you've
learned practical math skills that enhance your ability to think
critically about real-world situations involving chance and
probability (Cawn, 2020; Grift, 2020).
06
REFERENCES
Cawn, B. (2020). Ambitious instruction: Teaching with rigor in the secondary
classroom. Solution Tree.
Grift, G. (2020). Teachers as architects of learning: Twelve constructs to design and
configure successful learning experiences (2nd ed.). Solution Tree.
Khan Academy. (n.d.). Tree diagrams and conditional probability. Retrieved from
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/ap-statistics/probability-ap/stats-
conditional-probability/a/tree-diagrams-conditional-probability
OnlineMathLearning. (n.d.). Probability – with and without replacement. Retrieved
from https://www.onlinemathlearning.com/probability-without-replacement.html
SplashLearn. (2023, January 3). What is inquiry-based learning? Types, benefits,
examples.
Tawfik, A. A., Hung, W., & Giabbanelli, P. J. (2020). Comparing how different inquiry-
based approaches impact learning outcomes. The Interdisciplinary Journal of
Problem-Based Learning, 14(1).
07
