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Future refrigerant mix estimates as a result of the European Union regulation

on fluorinated gases

Conference Paper · September 2019

DOI: 10.18462/iir.icr.2019.0829

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 Manuscript ID: 829
DOI: 10.18462/iir.icr.2019.0829

Future refrigerant mix estimates as a result of the European

Union regulation on fluorinated gases

Pavel MAKHNATCH(a), Adrian MOTA-BABILONI(b), Rahmatollah

KHODABANDEH(a)
(a)
KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Energy Technology, Division of Applied
Thermodynamics and Refrigeration
Stockholm, 100 44, Sweden, [email protected]
(b)
ISTENER Research Group, Department of Mechanical Engineering and Construction,
Universitat Jaume I (UJI)
Castelló de la Plana, E-12071, Spain, [email protected]

ABSTRACT
The requirements of the European Union (EU) regulation on fluorinated greenhouse gases has
created an incentive to reduce their amount that can be placed on the EU market (including many
commonly used refrigerants) to 21% of the baseline level. This study attempts to develop a
methodology to predict the future refrigerant mix in refrigeration, air conditioning, and heat pumps
that will be available to the EU customers by 2021 and 2030 years. The work is based on the
relevant current statistical data, refrigerant distribution, and future technology acceptance and
trends in refrigerants. The study presents a refrigerant demand grow scenario and provides a basis
for closer market follow up in order to facilitate decision making for refrigeration industry
stakeholders. The results of the study indicate that by 2021 will be difficult to accomplish the
fluorinated gas quota but by 2030 the transition is possible. By that time, the natural refrigerants
will dominate the market, and a small share of lower GWP refrigerants will be necessary for
specific applications.
Keywords: F-gas (fluorinated gas), global warming, HFC, HFO, low GWP, refrigerant.

1. INTRODUCTION
Global society is facing a severe environmental challenge to reduce its impact on climate.
Refrigeration, air conditioning and heat pumps (RACHP) are well-known contributors to global
warming and account for 7.8% of global CO2-eq. emissions (IIR, 2017) with the projections of the
growing impact (Peters, 2018). A significant contribution to reducing the impact is the global
agreement that has been enforced from the 1st January 2019, i.e., Kigali Amendment to the
Montreal Protocol (UN, 2016). The Agreement sets the distinct phase-down schedule to reduce the
global production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Before the global agreement,
legislation that includes a similar action (among others) has been implemented in the European
Union, the regulation No 517/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council on fluorinated
greenhouse gases (F-gas regulation) (European Parliament, 2014).
Most importantly, the regulation sets a target fluorinated gases (F-gases) supply level that is
gradually reduced till 2030 and prescribes control mechanisms to prevent the use of a greater
amount of HFCs. Additionally, a number of prohibitions based on the global warming potential
(GWP) values are included to guide the industry over the process. Thus, clear incentives have
been established for the RACHP industry to reduce the supply of high GWP refrigerants by, for
instance, replacing them with alternative refrigerants with lower GWP.
While the list of available low GWP refrigerants has been identified (McLinden et al., 2017), their
use is currently limited due to their varying properties, e.g., flammability or toxicity characteristics.
In such circumstances, several refrigerant mixtures have been proposed to satisfy different
requirements (trade-off) (Bitzer, 2018).
Depending on the RACHP application, the characteristics required to the refrigerant vary, and
hence their GWP. However, the maximum allowed quota is set for the entire EU market and not
linked or separated based on application type. Given the uncertainty present in the RACHP
working fluids market, this work aims to present an estimation for the future refrigerant mix that is
plausible to establish when attending to the F-gas regulation quotas and GWP limitations.

2. METHODOLOGY
The results of this study are based on the allocation model of refrigerants that will be replacing the
commonly used HFC refrigerants. It is based on current and historical data and assumptions of
future refrigerant use and regulations development.

2.1 Approach
The methodology followed in this study is based on the current levels, and future predictions of
high GWP refrigerants use as input data. The model is therefore based on the baseline supply
levels of a set of high GWP refrigerants. Accounting to the historical data obtained from the recent
report on F-gases (European Environment Agency, 2018), the baseline levels of selected HFC
refrigerants that have been placed on the European market has been defined.
Further, the future refrigerant options have been identified considering the current technology and
refrigerant development levels as well as on their future development projections. Two key periods
have been selected, 2021 and 2030 years, which are the target years of the F-gas regulation for
the two major coming quota reductions (European Parliament, 2014).
Finally, the future refrigerant mix has been identified under the assumption of a gradual reduction
of the baseline amount of HFCs that can be placed on the European Union’s (EU) market (placing
on the market, POM, amount expressed in million tons CO2 equivalent, MTCO2e) according to the
schedule stipulated by the F-gas regulation.

2.2 Data and Assumptions

The main data source is the historical data reported by companies on the production, import,
export, and destruction of F-gases in the European Union available from the European
Environment Agency (2018). This document provides statistic on F-gases use in the EU during
2007-2017 years. The current study has been focused on a limited set of HFC refrigerants that
were representing the major share of refrigerant supplied during the referencing period. The
historical data outside of the reference period has been explicitly neglected since it is not
representative of the typical refrigerant supply profile due to the fluctuations caused by the F-gas
regulation. The projections of future supply are instead based on the reasonable refrigerant market
development under the requirements of the F-gas regulations that were assumed by the authors.
These assumptions are further introduced in the respective parts of the paper.

2.3 Model Uncertainty

The results of the given study are subject to uncertainty due to the uncertainty of input parameters,
identified data gaps, and the assumptions. The model also implies various assumptions helping to
substitute data inputs for which the exact values cannot be obtained. The reliability of the model
output will be benefited from additional efforts taken to improve the quality of the input data. This
uncertainty can be incorporated into the model by integrating statistical methods. However, this is
out of the scope of the current study and suggested for future studies. The modelling error of the
presented evaluation is dependent on the input assumptions and not quantified in a given study.

3. REFRIGERANT INVENTORY ESTIMATION

3.1 Implications of the F-Gas Regulation

The F-gas regulation established a legal requirement for a 79% gradual reduction in the F-gases
that can be placed on the EU market based on the average amount placed during the period 2009-
2012 as the baseline reference. The reduction started in 2015, but the first significant reduction
took place in 2018, passing from 93% to 63% of fluorinated substances allowed. It is considered
that this year the refrigeration and HVAC industry faced the first challenge. In the same way, its
next great challenge to face is the year 2021, when 55% reduction is required.
The phase-down schedule established by the F-gas regulation can be translated into the amount of
CO2-equivalent allowed to be placed on the EU market, given the available historical data. Thus,
the 100% quota is 183.1 MTCO2e. It is based on the allowed quota value, set by the regulation,
total CO2-equivalent value of the baseline F-gases use (as listed in the F-gas regulation). The
resulted values are compiled in Table 1.

Table 1. F-gas reduction quota translated into CO2-eq. emissions

Year 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Quota,
100 93 93 63 63 63 45 45 45 31 31 31 24 24 24 21
%
183.1

170.3

170.3

115.4

115.4

115.4
POM,

82.4

82.4

82.4

56.8

56.8

56.8

43.9

43.9

43.9

38.5
MTCO2e

The allocated quotas are carefully monitored, and the statistics are regularly published presenting
past use of the F-gases. According to the most recent statistics, the quotas have been met
successfully during the 2015-2017 years.
Most of the F-gases have been used in the “Refrigeration, airconditioning and heating and other
heat transfer fluids” category, followed by the “Foams, including pre-blended polyols” and
“aerosols” sectors. The statistics present the supply data for different F-gases. In the refrigeration
sector, these gases have been consumed in pure form (e.g., R134a and R32 refrigerants), as well
as combined in mixtures with other F-gases (e.g., R134a as a component of R404A, R32 as a
component of R410A). The quantitative data of the past refrigerant supply is however not
presented in the report, neither available to the authors in any other form. Such data is therefore
evaluated.

3.2 Identifying Baseline Refrigerant Inventory

Depending on the requirements of the specific refrigerating application, various F-gases are used
in pure form, as well as components of a refrigerant mixture. The most widely used synthetic HFC
refrigerants before the HFCs phase down are R134a, R404A, R407C, R410A, and R507. The
composition of the HFC mixtures in mass percentage is presented in Table 2.

Table 2. Composition in mass percentage of commonly used HFC refrigerants

R134a R404A R407C R410A R507
R134a 100 4 52 0 0
R125 0 44 25 50 50
R143a 0 52 0 0 50
R32 0 0 23 50 0

These refrigerants are used in different applications, for some of which the F-gas regulation
establishes additional measures of regulation: products and equipment placing on the market
prohibitions. Thus, a baseline refrigerant supply scenario for 2009-2012 average has been
obtained from the historical F-gases supply amounts, composition of the conventional HFC
refrigerants used, statistical data presented by the European Environment Agency (2018), and
assuming the refrigerant inventory in the European Union to be similar to that of France, for which
detailed data is available (Clodic et al., 2013). The results are presented on a mass basis in Figure
1a and on CO2 equivalent basis on Figure 1b.
 a) Mass basis (tonnes) b) CO2 equivalent basis
(MTCO2e)

Figure 1: Baseline refrigerant inventory, common HFC refrigerants only

3.3 Identifying Distribution of Refrigerants

The choice of the refrigerant that replaces a conventional one is dependent on the intended
application. For instance, R404A that is used in commercial refrigeration can be replaced,
depending on the application, by lower and low GWP refrigerant mixtures (Makhnatch et al., 2017),
as well as naturally occurring substances (CO2, propane). Several replacements for R134a have
been developed for R134a and are suitable to replace it in different applications (Makhnatch et al.,
2019). Similarly, a wide range of alternatives exists for other HFC refrigerants considered in the
current analysis (Mota-Babiloni et al., 2017a). The choice of the alternative is dependent on a few
factors, including the type of equipment, possibility, and viability to retrofit, as well as the availability
of alternatives, given the projected timeframe. Therefore, the distribution of the refrigerants has
been estimated, based on the values provided by Clodic et al. (2013).
The distribution of the refrigerants over the equipment type (Table 3) has been assessed by
applying the data available for France at a similar period (Clodic et al., 2013) under the assumption
that this data can be translated to the refrigerant supply inventory over the entire EU region at that
time by extending the inventory of French refrigeration sector to the entire EU inventory. It can be
seen that the dominating refrigerant is R134a given the different applications in which can be used,
followed by R404A, because it is used in applications that require a large charge of refrigerant.

Table 3. Baseline supply inventory of the assessed high GWP refrigerants

Baseline scenario R134a R404A R407C R410A R507
Domestic refrigeration. ton 2749.9
Commercial refrigeration. ton 1150.9 4238.9 6.6 24.3 966.3
Road transport. ton 62.4 416.8 1.1
Industries. ton 2902.6 3747.4 260.8 118.3 38.1
Air-conditioning. ton 308.7 2038.1 4474.1
Chillers. ton 3313.1 2755.4 901.9
Heat pumps 231.5 612.3 1963.0
Mobile air conditioning 25419.4 88.4
Sea transport 1301.9 11.6
TOTAL, MTCO2e 53,54 36,18 10,22 15,62 3,78
TOTAL, ton 37440 9225 5762 7482 1004

This calculation results in the development of the baseline refrigerant inventory for the initial period.
It is worth to mention that this assumption should be re-evaluated in future studies.
 4. FUTURE REFRIGERANT INVENTORY

4.1 Refrigerant Options

Many refrigerants mentioned in a baseline scenario have GWP values over the limits set by the F-
gas regulation for some applications, or these GWP values are too high to comply with the reduced
quotas. Therefore, they will be replaced in order to comply with the requirements of the current
legislation. The transition to lower GWP refrigerants will happen gradually and will rely on the
availability of the lower GWP refrigerants and equipment using thereof; availability of lower GWP
refrigerants that can replace with no or low amount of modifications high GWP refrigerants already
used in equipment (drop-in replacement), monetary and legislative incentives.
In this work, a scenario of the refrigerant supply development by the beginning of 2021 and 2030 is
presented. This scenario is based on the expert opinion on future developments expressed
elsewhere (IIR, 2016) (Danfoss, 2018), as well as the authors’ personal opinion. The future
possibly used alternatives can be briefly summarised in Table 4. It can be seen as by 2021, a wide
variety of possibilities can be combined in several applications. However, by 2030, HFC/HFO
mixtures and latest considered HFCs are going to disappear from that range of options and natural
refrigerants are going to dominate the refrigerant market.

Table 4. Future refrigerants adaptation based on the category

Category Refrigerant By 2021 By 2030
Domestic refrigeration R134a HC HC
R134a HFC/HFO, HFO, CO2/HC Mostly CO2/HC
Commercial
R404A/R507 HFC/HFO, CO2/HC Mostly CO2/HC
refrigeration
R410A/R407C HFCs HC
R134a HFCs, HFC/HFO HFO
Road transport R404A HFC/HFO HC/CO2
R410A HFCs, HFC/HFO HC, HFC
R134a HFC/HFO, NH3/CO2 HFC/HFO, NH3/CO2
Industries R404A/R507 HFC/HFO, NH3/CO2 HFC/HFO, NH3/CO2
R410A/R407C NH3/CO2/HC NH3/CO2/HC
R134a HFC, HFC/HFO HC
Air-conditioning
R410A/R407C HFC HFC, HC
R134a HFC/HFO, HFO HFO
Chillers R410A/R407C HFC, HFC/HFO HFC, HFO/HFC
R134a HFC, HFC/HFO, HC CO2, HC
Heat pumps R410A/R407C HFC, HFC/HFO, HC HFC, HFC/HFO, HC
R134a HFO HFO, CO2
Mobile air conditioning R407C HFC, HC HC, HFC/HFO
R134a HFC, HFC/HFO HFO
Sea transport R404A HFC/HFO, CO2/NH3 CO2/NH3

4.2 Modelling Future Scenarios under POM Limitations of F-Gas Schedule

Finally, the modelled use values for the future refrigerant quota have been obtained by projecting
the future energy mix onto the possible future consumption patterns of the refrigerants in each
sector. The quota use values represent the future refrigerants that are expected to be placed on
the European market (POM) to satisfy the proposed refrigerants’ demand.
The refrigerants that are POM are utilised in new equipment that is produced and imported to the
European market, but also eventual top-up leakages from remaining RACHP equipment. Since the
refrigerant top-up amount is dependent on the typical refrigerant lifetime (LT, adopted from Clodic
et al. (2013)) and typical annual leakage rate (LR, adopted from the reported data (IIR, 2014)), the
refrigerant amount (in tonnes) in new equipment at a baseline year is calculated as
POM/(1+LT·LR). A detailed description of the scope of the POM metric that is relevant to
compliance with the EU HFC phase-down can be obtained from the report by the European
Environmental Agency (2018).
The modelled future POM of refrigerants accounted by the quota mechanism of the F-gas
regulation are estimated for 3 cases: during 2021 and 2030 at no POM refrigerant growth (mass
basis); during 2030 at the consideration of 3% annual growth (a.g.) of POM (mass basis) from
2021. The estimation relies on several parameters, most notably not accounting for possible
refrigerant reclamation and recycling and neglecting HFCs exempted under Article 15.2 of the F-
gas regulation. The future POM of refrigerants intended to be used in new equipment was
assumed based on the considerations presented in Section 4.1. The share of the POM intended to
be used to top-up leakages from remaining RACHP equipment was estimated based on the
historical refrigerant mix, expected refrigerant mix in new equipment, as well as the removal of
equipment from the market due to the end of life. The increase in refrigerant demand due to the
potential retrofit of RACHP equipment is not taken into account here. The resulting values are
summarised in Table 5.

Table 5. Modelled future POM of HFC refrigerants at the European market

Refrigerant Baseline (including by 2021 by 2030 by 2030.
imports) 3% a.g.
Ton MTCO2e MTCO2e
Domestic 0.00 0.00
R134a 2749.9 3.932 0.00
refrigeration
Commercial R134a 1150.9 1.646 0.96 0.15 0.17
refrigeration R404A/R507 5205.2 20.476 8.64 4.40 4.98
R410A/R407C 30.9 0.063 0.03 0.00 0.00
Road transport R134a 62.4 0.089 0.08 0.05 0.06
R404A 416.8 1.635 0.54 0.38 0.42
R410A 1.1 0.002 0.00 0.00 0.00
Industries R134a 2902.6 4.151 3.44 0.00 0.00
R404A/R507 3785.5 14.849 4.07 0.00 0.00
R410A/R407 379.1 0.710 0.68 0.11 0.11
Air-conditioning R134a 308.7 0.441 0.26 0.06 0.07
R410A/R407C 6512.2 12.958 11.32 2.22 2.51
Chillers R134a 3313.1 4.738 3.20 0.00 0.00
R410A/R407C 3657.3 6.771 6.68 3.18 3.39
Heat pumps R134a 231.5 0.331 0.09 0.00 0.00
R410A/R407C 2575.3 5.185 5.16 1.26 1.40
Mobile air R134a 25419.4 36.350 13.50 0.00 0.00
conditioning R407C 88.4 0.157 0.09 0.00 0.00
Sea transport R134a 1301.9 1.862 0.70 0.11 0.12
R404A 11.6 0.045 0.01 0.00 0.00
TOTAL 59.4 11.9 13.2
Quota POM 116.4 52.4 33.8 33.8

The results presented in Table 5 indicate that at a given rate of new refrigerants adoption, and
taking into account anticipated consumer preference of new equipment with reduced GWP
refrigerant, the amount of HFC refrigerants that is expected to be POM is 7.0 MTCO2e greater than
that is necessary to meet the steep quota reduction set by the F-gas regulation for 2021. Such
results are likely due to the delayed response of the European refrigeration and air conditioning
stakeholders to the requirements of the F-gas regulation and the postponed implementation of the
requirements of the Directive 2006/40/EC on mobile air conditioning.
The delay in the implementation of available low and lower GWP refrigerants caused that installed
equipment that uses high GWP refrigerants represents a bank of high GWP refrigerants needed to
be maintained (top-up to compensate for leakages). Additionally, such equipment retrofit is often
limited to the non-flammable HFO/HFC mixtures, which GWP is still rather high (Makhnatch et al..
2018b) (Makhnatch et al., 2018a). However, to use refrigerants with different safety classification,
this equipment could have to be replaced due to safety concerns.
Regarding the modelled future CO2e emissions from refrigerants to be POM in 2030, the result of
the model is quite promising, since the emissions will be lower than the predicted limit. It is due to
the availability of low GWP alternatives and under the assumption that all the stakeholders will
move to options using the lowest GWP possible in each of the analysed sectors. Meanwhile, the
limited lifetime of the refrigeration equipment allows older equipment designed to be used with high
GWP refrigerants to eventually greatly phase-out by 2030.
The sectors with highest contribution to refrigerants POM by 2030 will be commercial and industrial
refrigeration, produced by lower GWP HFC/HFO mixtures alternatives to R404A and R507 (e.g.,
R448A. R449A. R455A or R454C) (Mota-Babiloni et al., 2018), and in air conditioning, heat pumps
and industries, in lower GWP HFC/HFO mixtures (e.g. R454B. R466A) and pure HFC alternatives
(R32) to R410A and R407C (Mota-Babiloni et al.. 2017b).

5. CONCLUSIONS
The currently used high GWP HFC refrigerants are about to be phased down or phased out, and
the reduction of their use will be dictated by the European F-gas Regulation and the Kigali
Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. For the coming years, we must consider that low GWP
refrigerants are going to dominate the market, but there is still a wide variety on them and a great
uncertainty on how they are going to be distributed in the market. In this paper, we aimed to model
and obtained the future refrigerant mix distribution in the European Union for two target years,
2021 and 2030, when the major reductions in F-gas quota will take place.
The applications here considered where those with higher HFC consumption, and their associated
refrigerants, R134a, R404A, R507C, R410A, and R407C. Then, we assumed that the refrigerant
distribution where similar to that of the French market and the main data source is retrieved from a
report of the European Environment Agency.
For the future refrigerant distribution, the future share of the market and possibilities are based on
on the expert opinion on future developments as well as authors personal opinion. The most likely
scenario that considers growth in the refrigerant demand is also included in this work.
Results show that, under current assumptions, the POM by 2021 could not be satisfied since the
sector is not prepared for the fast transition. In many sectors low GWP refrigerants are suitable for
newly manufactured equipment, and their short term implementation is limited by a turn-over rate
of the equipment and their applicability for retrofit. However, by 2030, the refrigerant industry will
be able to adapt to the situation. In this year, the use of natural refrigerants such as CO2, HCs, and
NH3, is likely to increase but still synthetic low and lower GWP refrigerants may take a share of the
market in applications where R404A/R507 and R410A/R407C are being used.
The excess of POM of refrigerants observed in 2021 can explain the current illegal refrigerant
trading in Europe, recognized and warned by several associations and nonprofit organizations. It is
expected that the development of the technology, the necessity of renovation of equipment, and
better and detailed training of engineers and technicians will reduce to the minimum the illegal
acquisition of HFC refrigerants.
Moreover, it is worth to highlight that the conclusions depicted from this model can be extended to
benefit the worldwide transition to low and lower GWP refrigerants since the Kigali Amendment is
also incorporating an HFC phase-down mechanism. Lessons and experiences learned from the
European transition can also be useful. Thus, relevant data should be collected from early stages
of Kigali Amendment implementation to provide the industry with more transparency and
knowledge, and eliminate uncertainty in decision making when choosing refrigerant and
refrigeration equipment use. It is also important to act early since the significant share of current
HFC demand is used to maintain previously instaled equipment.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Pavel Makhnatch and Rahmatollah Khodabandeh acknowledge the financial support of the
Swedish Energy Agency within the Termo research program. Adrián Mota-Babiloni acknowledges
the financial support of the Spanish Government under the grant FJCI-2016-28324.
 NOMENCLATURE
a.g. Annual growth HC Hydrocarbon
CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent HFC Hydrofluorocarbon
EU European Union HFO Hydrofluoroolefin
GWP Global warming potential LR Leakage rate
F-gases Fluorinated gases LT Lifetime
Regulation (EU) No 517/2014 MTCO2e Million ton CO2 equivalent
of the European Parliament POM Placing on market
F-gas
and of the Council of 16 April
regulation Refrigeration. air conditioning and
2014 on fluorinated RACHP
heat pump
greenhouse gases
HC Hydrocarbon

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