Fashion Trends and Forecasting

Fashion Trends and Forecasting explores how designers, merchandisers, buyers, marketers
and strategists use fashion trend forecasting to predict upcoming trends and understand
past or current ones.
It explains the importance of trend forecasting for businesses and how technology such
as artificial intelligence can help to advance it for the future. Addressing both macro- and
micro-trends, including fashion styles, textiles and colour trends as well as the impact of
technology such as AI and the metaverse, the book offers guidance on how fashion stu-
dents can address fast-changing consumer needs and demands and identify wider shifts in
the cultural, environmental, political and technological worlds. Case studies from globally
recognised organisations feature in every chapter, highlighting and contextualising theory
for students. Discussion questions, further reading and exercises help facilitate class dis-
cussion and deeper understanding.
Designed to equip the reader with Fashion Forecasting tools, methods and principles
in an accessible and clear way, this text is recommended and core reading for students
studying fashion forecasting, fashion buying and fashion marketing.
Supplementary online resources can be found at [Link]/9781032541860
and include a short instructor’s manual of points to be used for seminar discussions and
chapter-by-chapter PowerPoint slides for instructors.

Eunsuk Hur is Lecturer and Researcher in sustainability and future studies at the University
of Leeds, UK, and former trend forecaster.

Caroline Hemingray is Associate Professor in Fashion Marketing and Colour in the School
of Design, University of Leeds, UK.

Stephen Westland is Professor of Colour Science and Technology in the School of Design,
University of Leeds, UK.
Mastering Fashion Management

The fashion industry is dynamic, constantly evolving and worth billions worldwide: it’s
no wonder that Fashion Business Management has come to occupy a central position
within the Business School globally. This series meets the need for rigorous yet practi-
cal and accessible textbooks that cover the full spectrum of the fashion industry and its
management.
Collectively, Mastering Fashion Management is a valuable resource for advanced
undergraduate and postgraduate students of Fashion Management, helping them gain an
in-depth understanding of contemporary concepts and the realities of practice across
the entire fashion chain - from design development and product sourcing, to buying and
merchandising, sustainability, and sales and marketing. Individually, each text provides
essential reading for a core topic. A range of consistent pedagogical features are used
throughout the texts, including international case studies, highlighting the practical impor-
tance of theoretical concepts.
Postgraduate students studying for a Masters in Fashion Management in particular will
find each text invaluable reading, providing the knowledge and tools to approach a future
career in fashion with confidence.
Luxury Fashion Brand Management
Unifying Fashion with Sustainability
Olga Mitterfellner
Customer Experience in Fashion Retailing
Merging Theory and Practice
Edited by Bethan Alexander
Fashion Business and Digital Transformation
Technology and Innovation across the Fashion Industry
Charlene Gallery and Jo Conlon
Luxury Fashion Marketing and Branding
A Strategic Approach
Alice Dallabona
Creativity and Innovation in the Fashion Business
Contemporary Issues in Fashion Design and Product Development
Helen Goworek and Fiona Bailey
Fashion Marketing and Communications (2nd edition)
Theory and Practice Across the Fashion Industry
Olga Mitterfellner
Fashion Trends and Forecasting
The Fashion Futurists’ Toolkit
Edited by Eunsuk Hur, Caroline Hemingray and Stephen Westland

For more information about the series, please visit

[Link]
Fashion
Trends and
Forecasting
The Fashion Futurists’
Toolkit

Edited by Eunsuk Hur,

Caroline Hemingray and
Stephen Westland
Designed cover image: jensenartofficial/Pixabay
First published 2025
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© 2025 selection and editorial matter, Eunsuk Hur, Caroline Hemingray and Stephen
Westland, individual chapters, the contributors
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authors of the editorial material, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been
asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act
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ISBN: 978-1-032-54184-6 (hbk)

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DOI: 10.4324/9781003415589
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by KnowledgeWorks Global Ltd.
Access the Support Material: [Link]/9781032541860
Contents

Editorial introduction vii

Eunsuk Hur, Caroline Hemingray and Stephen Westland
List of contributors xii

Part I Macro trends – fashion lifestyle forecasting

and strategic directions 1

Chapter 1 Fashion futurists’ toolkit: Introduction to trend

research and the role of trend forecasting 3
Eunsuk Hur

Chapter 2 Revealing the sociocultural approach used by

trend forecasting agencies in Paris: An
anthropological study 27
Meryem Laghmari and Eunsuk Hur

Chapter 3 Macro-environment analysis and fashion

lifestyle trends 47
Hannah Edyvean

Chapter 4 Forecasting sustainable fashion futures: Backcasting

and scenario planning strategies 67
Eunsuk Hur

Part II Micro-trends – forecasting colour, textiles

and fashion design 97

Chapter 5 Collaborative fashion forecasting: Integrating

demand and supply-chain forecasting into the
fashion industry 99
Eunsuk Hur and Pammi Sinha
vi  Contents

Chapter 6 Colour forecasting: A data-driven approach

to identifying ‘colour futures’ 119
Anat Lechner and Leslie Harrington

Chapter 7 Trends in yarns, fabrics and materials 141

Sally Angharad

Chapter 8 Fashion designers’ tools for forecasting

trends 163
Zi Young Kang

Part III Fashion trend forecasting – the future 197

Chapter 9 Trend forecasting in virtual worlds 199

Caroline Hemingray and Stephen Westland

Chapter 10 The future of fashion forecasting 213

Stephen Westland and Caroline Hemingray

Chapter 11 Forecasting industry practices: Fashion futurists’

careers 229
Eunsuk Hur, Claire Watson and Meryem Laghmari

Glossary 247
Acknowledgements and image credits 249
Image credits 250
Index 253
Editorial introduction
Eunsuk Hur, Caroline Hemingray and Stephen Westland

Fashion trend forecasting is a crucial element of every fashion business’s operations and
enables designers, merchandisers, buyers, marketers and strategists to understand business
practices, consumer lifestyles and fashion trends. Forecasting outcomes directly influence
short- and long-term business directions and influence the fashion industry’s manufactur-
ing cycle. However, the subject of fashion trend forecasting, and how to research, analyse
and interpret trends, is often considered a specialist’s task and an experts’ domain. More
often than not, fashion students passively adopt professional forecasters’ insights, without
a sound grasp of the approaches behind them. The trend forecasting process and meth-
odological approaches are often not well understood by the wider industry. Professional
forecasting agencies support fashion companies by offering information of value on a
range of matters – including new product inspirations, consumer insights and identifica-
tion of macro-trends – for shaping the future direction of their business. Each stage of
forecasting activity may require a different type of method, tool or technique that is likely
to be opaque to the end user in the fashion business.
Furthermore, over the past few years, emerging technologies such as generative ­artificial
intelligence (AI), robotics, big data and extended reality technologies have transformed
the landscape of the production, consumption and communication of fashion. Several
industry practitioners and futurists have anticipated that AI technology could completely
transform how we live, work and interact with people. Advanced AI technologies enable
fashion forecasters to see into consumer minds quickly and offer more sophisticated out-
puts for supporting new product development processes and strengthening the brand’s
diverse decision-making processes. However, there is a limited understanding of the roles
played by these new technologies in leveraging the trend forecasting process and the
implications of their use for industry practices.
More importantly, there is also growing demand for companies to lift their environ-
mental performance due to escalating public concern about climate change, depletion of
natural resources and decreasing biodiversity. Traditional fashion forecasting approaches
mostly focus on offering guidance on micro-trend analysis, such as colour, materials and
style directions. There is a lack of supporting insight into long-term strategic business
directions, particularly in relation to business sustainability. Moreover, it is important to
critically reflect on how future fashion professionals will nurture their skills, knowledge
and mindsets to address the fast-changing consumer demands, market environments and
technological advancement in Industry 4.0 and the roles that fashion forecasting educa-
tion will play in that evolution.
viii  Editorial introduction

Fashion Trends and Forecasting: The Fashion Futurists’ Toolkit identifies ways that fash-
ion students and practitioners can research global megatrends, macro-trends and micro-
trends affecting consumers, businesses and fashion product design to foresee the future of
the fashion industry. This book aims to offer essential forecasting methods, techniques and
tools for future fashion trend forecasters, ranging from current undergraduates to postgrad-
uate students as well as today’s professional forecasters, equipping them with the ability to
better divine and respond to the industry’s future. Readers will learn the key concepts and
theories in trend forecasting. They will also learn how to interpret nowcasting, forecast-
ing and backcasting data to develop business strategies and new product development
through evaluating forecast consumer demands, colours, textiles and fashion style trends.
This book contains ten unique features that make it a vital resource for fashion students
and forecasters:

1. It maps out a combination of 11 specialists’ views on their respective forecasting

fields, including sustainability, technology, cultural anthropology, colours, textiles,
fashion, marketing, management and fashion education.
2. Each chapter contains specific forecasting methods to guide students and forecasters
in their research and work.
3. It contains multidisciplinary approaches that demonstrate how fashion forecasting
intersects with technology and data science, business, sociology and cultural studies,
consumer behaviours, and art and design.
4. The book offers a blend of theoretical concepts and practical applications to help
readers understand the principles of forecasting and apply that knowledge in their
research and practices.
5. Each chapter offers case studies of how industry professionals or organisations use
different forecasting approaches.
6. This book focuses on contemporary and potential future challenges in the fashion
industry and discusses the roles of forecasting in reaching a sustainable fashion future.
7. Each chapter offers a summary of the topic, learning objectives, discussion questions
and a reference list for further reading.
8. The book contains visual images, diagrams, tables and a glossary to help readers
­better understand key terms and context.
9. The book deals with a range of forecasting methods to serve the long-, mid- and short-
term future of fashion business practices and new product development processes.
10. It comes with instructors’ materials that aid in the teaching and learning of fashion
trends and forecasting.

This book consists of 11 chapters that discuss the different forecasting methods and tools
that are commonly utilised in the fashion sector (see Table 0.1).
Part I: The first part of the book addresses how forecasters identify current and future
consumer lifestyle trends through mapping zeitgeists and envisioning long-term future
lifestyles and retailing experiences. Chapters 1–4 provide a general overview of the roles
of forecasting in emerging agendas for the fashion industry, examining macro-market
environments and trend levels and cycles. These chapters discuss key macro-trend fore-
casting techniques and sociocultural approaches, sustainability forecasting and long-term
forecasting that considers the dynamic global market as well as sociocultural and envi-
ronmental challenges.
 Editorial introduction   ix

Table 0.1 Fashion Trends and Forecasting: The Fashion Futurists’ Toolkit:
Chapter Overview.
Section Chapter Title Examples of Fashion
Forecasting Approaches
Discussed
Macro- 1. F ashion futurists’ toolkit: Roles analysis
trends: Introduction to trend Trend scales analysis
Fashion research and the role of STEPIC methodology
lifestyle trend forecasting Diffusion of innovation
forecasting Trend cartogram
and strategic 2. Revealing the sociocultural The cultural brailling method:
directions approach used by trend social and cultural analysis
forecasting agencies in Trend panel
Paris: an anthropological Affinity diagramming
study Trend clustering method
3. M
 acro-environment analysis Macro-trends analysis
and fashion lifestyle trends PESTLE (STEEP) analysis
SWOT analysis
5C analysis
4. F orecasting sustainable Sustainability forecasting
fashion futures: backcasting Scenario planning
and scenario planning Backcasting
strategies Horizon scanning
Long-term forecasting
Micro- 5. C
 ollaborative fashion Supply-chain forecasting
trends: forecasting: integrating Demand forecasting and
forecasting demand and supply-chain inventory management
colour, forecasting into the fashion Product life-cycle analysis
textiles and industry Strategic planning
fashion 6. C
 olour forecasting: a Data-driven colour forecasting
design data-driven approach to Colour forecasting model
identifying ‘colour futures’ Time series analysis
Regression analysis
Data mining
Delphi technique
7. Trends in yarns, fabrics and Textile trade shows analysis
materials Materials analysis
Fibres, yarns and fabric trend
forecasting
Textile patterns, textures and
finishes forecasting

(Continued)
x  Editorial introduction

Table 0.1 Continued

Section Chapter Title Examples of Fashion
Forecasting Approaches
Discussed
8. F ashion designers’ tools Archival research
for forecasting trends Object-based analysis (key
product design and key
shapes)
Runway and catwalk analysis
Fashion 9. Trend forecasting in virtual Virtual fashion in the
trend worlds metaverse
forecasting: Virtual fashion trend analysis
the future Opportunities and challenges
related to virtual fashion
forecasting
10. The future of fashion Artificial intelligence and
forecasting robotics
Machine learning
Industry 4.0
Agile manufacturing and
supply chain models
11. F orecasting industry Future skills, knowledge and
practices: fashion futurists’ mindsets analysis
careers Future trend forecasting
education
Trend forecasting careers
analysis
Note: STEPIC = society, technology, environment, politics, industry and creative culture;
PESTLE = political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental; SWOT =
strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

Part II: The key themes of the book’s second part deal with how micro-trend analysis
methods link with crucial elements of the fashion manufacturing cycle and forecasting
timeline. This part looks at how forecasters offer insights for buyers, merchandisers, col-
ourists and textile and fashion designers. Key challenges of demand forecasting and inven-
tory management are discussed in connection with industry practices. Strategic business
planning, the new product development process and colour, textile and fashion style anal-
ysis methods are examined. Data-driven colour forecasting and trend forecasting tools for
fashion and textile designers are evaluated by industry forecasters, colour specialists and
educators. This part also provides industry case studies of how agencies specialising in key
trends forecast fashion, textiles, colours and product designs.
 Editorial introduction   xi

Part III: The final part of the book focuses on the future of fashion trend forecasting,
taking into consideration the fashion industry system as a whole, as well as business prac-
tices and forecasting education in Industry 4.0. This part discusses the future of fashion
forecasting, forecasting profession practices and fashion futurists’ careers. The roles of AI,
robotics, virtual fashion and the metaverse in current and future fashion business practices
are reviewed and assessed for how this will influence consumer lifestyles and fashion
education. The roles of futurists and the skills, knowledge and mindsets that can help to
futureproof their forecasting careers are also explored. Finally, suggestions are given for
students who aspire to be forecasters in the fashion industry.
Contributors

Sally Angharad ([Link] is a PhD student at the University

of Leeds, UK, exploring the role of colour trend forecasting in fashion and textiles. She
is also a freelance trend researcher and writer working with businesses and events in the
design industry. Sally has an MA in Textiles and a BA Hons in Textile Design and worked
as a consultant for an international colour trend agency before becoming a senior lecturer
in Fashion at Leeds Beckett University.

Hannah Edyvean ([Link] is a Senior Lecturer and PhD

researcher in Digital Marketing at Leeds Beckett University, UK. With a practice-based
Masters and extensive experience in digital and business strategy, branding and visual com-
munication, she previously ran a successful graphic design agency and has worked with
global retail brands.

Leslie Harrington ([Link] PhD, serves as the Executive

Director of The Colour Association of the United States (CAUS). She is also co-founder of
Huedata Inc. With 30+ years in colour strategy and marketing, she’s held senior roles and
served on the International Colour Association (AIC), Inter Society Color Council (ISCC)
and The Color Marketing Group (CMG) boards. Leslie holds degrees in interior design, an
MBA and a PhD in Colour Strategy.

Caroline Hemingray ([Link] is Associate Professor in

Fashion Marketing and Colour at the University of Leeds, UK. With a background in
Textile Design and a PhD in colour prediction for sustainable fibre blending, Caroline’s
research interests include the virtual fashion industry, data-driven colour forecasting and
the non-image-forming effects of colour.

Eunsuk Hur ([Link] is Programme Leader for BA

Sustainable Fashion and former research group leader in Fashion Marketing and
Management at the University of Leeds, UK. She has worked as a trend forecaster, busi-
ness consultant and designer. She has been teaching and researching strategic foresight,
sustainable fashion and marketing since 2013.

Zi Young Kang ([Link] has an MA and PhD in fashion

design and is a lecturer in BA Fashion Design Innovation at the University of Leeds, UK,
specialising in fashion research, design and CAD. Her research focuses on digital design,
garment simulation, fashion history and subculture.
 Contributors  xiii

Meryem Laghmari ([Link] is a Moroccan PhD candi-

date in Anthropology at the University of Paris Nanterre. Her research delves into the intri-
cate world of trend forecasting, based on long-term fieldwork conducted in Paris, France.
As foresight researcher grounded in social sciences, she explores humanity’s future pos-
sibilities and complexities to identity macro-trends.

Anat Lechner ([Link] PhD, is a Full Professor at New

York University Stern School of Business and co-founder/CEO of Huedata Inc., a Colour
Intelligence company. A former McKinsey Researcher, her clients include Fortune 100
firms across various industries. Anat frequently appears in top business media outlets
­globally and holds an MBA and PhD in Business Management from Rutgers University.

Pammi Sinha ([Link] is Professor of Fashion Manage-

ment at the University of Leeds, UK. Pammi has a deep interest in the strategic and man-
agement implications of the fashion design process and activities, specifically how design
can contribute to sustainable development within the contexts of textiles and clothing that
have reached their end of life.

Claire Watson, an expert in Fashion Trend Forecasting, combines over 20 years of indus-
try experience with academic insight to deliver authentic, student-focused learning. She
holds leadership roles at School and Faculty levels, at the University of Leeds, UK, and is
an experienced external reviewer and examiner, dedicated to enhancing education and
ensuring high teaching standards.

Stephen Westland ([Link] is Professor of Colour

Science and Technology in the School of Design, University of Leeds, UK. His research
interests include colour imaging, colour design, machine learning and sustainable manu-
facturing processes. He has published several textbooks including Computational Colour
Science using MATLAB (2004, 2012) and Universal Principles of Color (2023).
Taylor & Francis
Taylor & Francis Group
[Link]
PART I
Macro trends – fashion lifestyle
forecasting and strategic directions
 1 Fashion futurists’ toolkit
CHAPTER

Introduction to trend research and

the role of trend forecasting
Eunsuk Hur

Learning outcomes

●● Appreciate why forecasting plays a vital role in the fashion industry.

●● Define different types of trends and examine how new trends form and spread.
●● Analyse key frameworks for the process of forecasting fashion trends.
●● Examine how to effectively use a trend cartogram framework to map trend research.

Introduction

It is widely recognised that fashion forecasting plays a critical role in the development of
new products and marketing and merchandising strategies and in shaping fashion busi-
nesses’ strategic direction. Forecasters support fashion companies in not only improving
their products, services and experience offerings but also in avoiding potential risks. Over
the past few decades, the role of forecasters has been expanding rapidly. Forecasters spe-
cialise in industry-specific research fields such as colour trends, fabrics and materials, style
and creative direction, and retailing and marketing direction, as well as the domain of ‘big
ideas’ drawn from outside the industry, extending to strategic foresight, sustainability, the
major macro- and micro-trends in consumer lifestyle, and more (see examples in Figure 1.1).
Their activities can play a pivotal role in shaping the fashion businesses, allowing them to
stay competitive and sustain their product design, production, communication and distribu-
tion strategies effectively. However, there is only a limited understanding of fashion forecast-
ing activities at different stages in the production of fashion and of how forecasters conduct
their trend research; indeed, this is commonly considered a specialist subject among fashion
forecasters and future-studies literacy among fashion scholars is often very limited.
Furthermore, traditional fashion trend forecasting approaches face challenges in
addressing rapidly changing market environments and new types of consumer demands
that have not been encountered before. The recent rapid development of new technolo-
gies that impact the fashion forecasting field offers opportunities for more insightful and
targeted forecasting activities with subsequent efficiencies in fashion business operation,
but the potential consequences and limitations of the use of artificial intelligence (AI)-
based forecasting are so far not much explored. This chapter discusses the challenges

DOI: 10.4324/9781003415589-2
4   FASHION TRENDS AND FORECASTING

Figure 1.1 Types of fashion trend forecasters.

involved in fashion trend forecasting and offers a brief history of the concept of ‘trends’
and the role of forecasting in the fashion system. It also examines theories of trend move-
ment and diffusion of innovation. Key research methods, used to scan, analyse and inter-
pret trend data, are described along with ways of applying trend information in developing
the fashion business direction and product development. Finally, some case studies are
considered, featuring some of the leading forecasting agencies’ practices and methods.
 Chapter 1 FASHION FUTURISTS’ TOOLKIT   5

Fashion trend forecasting challenges

What is fashion trend forecasting, and how did it evolve into an indispensable activity
for fashion businesses, as well as garnering attention as a scholarly topic? Fashion often
acts as a reflection of societal, cultural, economic and political changes, of technological
innovation, and of artistic and creative shifts and, in the process, often serves as a histori-
cal record of sorts. Simonton (2004) observed that fashion embodies the zeitgeist or ‘spirit
of the times’ – inevitably generating innovations and creations in the sociocultural system.
The term ‘zeitgeist’ is frequently employed in academia to denote a time frame during
which specific cultural, regional, or behavioural patterns emerged. Thus, the fashion sec-
tor often serves as a historical record and reflection of culture and consumer lifestyles.
Fashion trend forecasters traditionally delineate the zeitgeist by completing forecasting
activities manually, such as examining current fashion industry activities or events, observing
consumer lifestyles and engaging in creative sector analysis. They gather diverse data and
interpret their findings into trend themes, colours, moods, materials and styles that are antici-
pated to be most appealing or inspirational to customers purchasing the new and upcoming
fashion products. Creativity is often regarded as an essential element in fashion forecasting,
since fashion consumers are often keenly sensitive to trends and seek innovation from the
fashion products they purchase. However, the above-described forecasting approach, espe-
cially when infused with an overweighted emphasis on creativity, is often criticised, since the
outputs typically depend heavily on the forecaster’s intuitions, rather than on concrete evi-
dence for predicting multi-layered trends. DuBreuil and Lu (2020) argued that the traditional
forecasting approach could lead to substantial financial risk when brands are relying too heav-
ily on following artistic directions and not enough on addressing commercial perspectives.
Traditional fashion forecasting is often considered a labour- and time-intensive process
that requires forecasters to analyse image-based data drawn from design collections across
the globe. Manual classification based on an individual forecaster’s subjective experi-
ence could lead to arbitrary results due to human mistakes or personal preferences for
certain fashion features (Shi et al. 2021). Similar criticism was shared by Gaimster (2012),
who noted that forecasters’ conclusions may often be largely based on human subjective
judgement from professional specialists. Gaimster further pointed out that the production
of a traditional trend book could take several months spanning research, conceptualisa-
tion, development to publication and distribution. The sheer quantity of work involved in
labour-intensive manual categorisations and organisation of visual data restrains the speed
and efficiency of evaluating fashion trends and disseminating them globally. Additionally,
proposed traditional trend concepts may become outdated due to lead time issues.
Holding out the promise of transcending such challenges, the rapid development of
new technology, in particular AI tools, has allowed for a more hands-off approach to
analysing trend data over the past few years. Kochar (2024) claims that machine learn-
ing techniques manage information objectively and yield more reliable results compared
to expert knowledge-based systems, resulting in improved efficiency. Trend information
that was previously unavailable to consumers for several months can now be accessed
almost instantaneously. Much of this information comes directly from the coalface – from
consumers themselves. Social media is one of the key enablers of AI applications in fash-
ion forecasting. This easily accessible and rich trend information can be beneficial and
convenient for forecasters in observing what is going on in other national markets and at
the level of street fashion (Gaimster 2012). Consumers are simultaneously sharing every
6   FASHION TRENDS AND FORECASTING

Figure 1.2 AI-based forecasting (Image: iStock, 2023).

activity via social media and producing valuable user-generated data for market predic-
tions. The AI-driven search tools allow users, whether consumers or forecasters, to track
the same product or the closest similar matches to it, providing vital insights into compara-
tive distinguishing factors (Figure 1.2).
Despite these benefits, several challenges confront fashion forecasters when incor-
porating a technology-based forecasting approach. Even though trustworthiness of fore-
casts can be achieved by utilising a wider array of reliable sources that encompass a
greater variety of big data, inherent risk lies in the potential for automated algorithms to
consistently draw on the same sources, thereby diminishing diversity and removing fresh
­perspectives and less connected sources from the news (Opdahl et al. 2023).
Other obstacles to extracting accurate and actionable data with AI include a lack of
intangible resources, issues with data reliability and security, and limited transparency in the
processes with regard to how they achieve the final outputs (Mohiuddin Babu et al. 2022).
AI-based approaches are mostly based on analysis of existing dominant trend data; they do
not posit implications of the findings, nor do they put forward innovative solutions that might
support fashion professionals. As acknowledged above, AI-based visual and textual data
allow forecasters to analyse existing knowledge and dominant current trends with astonish-
ing rapidity and ease. However, the interpretations of those emerging innovations can still
ultimately rest in the human intelligence and skill needed to identify their significance to
the fashion business at crucial points along its decision-making chain. Another downside
is that easily assessable data means that several companies might rely on similar sources
of information from dominant mainstream fashion trends, which may lead to undistinctive
approaches to the creative process, and the loss of differentiation points in their products or
services. Consequently, fashion businesses require AI to operate on more tailored data and
 Chapter 1 FASHION FUTURISTS’ TOOLKIT   7

to demonstrate a capacity to inspire creative directions that at the same time speak to and
enhance their brand identity, if they are to stand out from their competitors.

Fashion trend forecasting: what

is it and why does it matter?

A brief history of the concept of trends

The concept of a ‘fashion trend’ can be understood as a manifestation of attitudes and
behaviours that can appear within a large community and are collectively embraced
with anticipation but which remain popular only within a certain time frame (Mohr et al.
2021). Researchers maintain several slightly different historical views of how the concept
of trends began to take hold in the fashion sector. According to Higham (2009), the term
‘trends’ originated in the 16th century and initially functioned as a verb indicating the
action of moving or bending in a particular pattern. The word is derived from the Old
English trendan, which originally meant ‘to roll about, turn or revolve’. In the 19th century,
the word ‘trend’ began to be commonly utilised to refer to any type of change. The textile
and fashion industry adopted the phrase to denote ‘changes in design styles’. Holland and
Jones (2017), meanwhile, hold the view that the term ‘trend’ was not employed before the
20th century to denote alterations in fashion or the dissemination of a specific style, and
that these were instead referred to as ‘modes’. Irrespective of the contested timings of the
term’s introduction, fashion newspapers started incorporating inspiring photos and illus-
trations showcasing the most current styles in the 1800s and, in a self-reinforcing dynamic,
assumed greater influence in disseminating fashion trends. Today, the phenomenon of
fashion trends has transitioned into an annual cycle, and the methods of predicting these
trends are becoming ever more structured and proactive.
The start of modern trend forecasting can be traced back to the year 1915, when Margaret
Hayden Rorke, an American colour standards specialist, developed the initial practice of
making colour predictions via the circulation of colour cards among manufacturers and
retailers in a broad swathe of sectors (including the military) in the United States. Tobe
Associates, the earliest fashion trend consultancy, was established in 1927, when several
fashion designers collaborated to establish the fashion consortium, and commenced the
regular publication of fashion trend newsletters in 1928 (Higham 2009). They guided mul-
tiple fashion houses simultaneously, resulting in numerous designers adopting the same
style. Fashion houses observed that incorporating these trends resulted in higher sales,
spurring the expansion of this technique. Over time, fashion transitioned towards serving
a more widespread market with more readily affordable products, culminating in the mass
market fashion consumption of the present era as it exists today (Higham 2009).
Due to the origin of the term, and the way in which trend forecasting has been
employed in the fashion industry, a fashion ‘trend’ typically refers to a specific visual
expression that generally lasts for a season. Traditionally, fashion trends are shaped by an
industry-driven magnification of a particular style, mood, colour or other element or pack-
age of elements that is typically expressed. The major task of the fashion forecaster has
been predominantly to identify these forthcoming fashion style trends. This is achieved
by collaboration with colourists, designers, retailers, buyers and manufacturers, who work
together to anticipate the potential shifts that are occurring in the present and are expected
8   FASHION TRENDS AND FORECASTING

Table 1.1 Definitions of Trend Forecasting

Authors Definition
Perna (1987) ‘Answering “what is likely to happen in the near future? What
is happening now that will significantly influence the more
distant future”’ (p. 91)
Rousso and ‘The practice of predicting upcoming trends based on past
Nancy (2018) and present style-related information, the interpretation and
analysis of the motivation behind a trend, and an explanation
of why the prediction is likely to occur’ (p. 5)
Brannon ‘Forecasters pluck emerging trends out of public information
(2010) by becoming sensitive to directional signals that others miss
… looking into the new, the fresh, and the innovative, and
then analysing the whys behind it’ (p. 4)
Holland and ‘Forecasters must watch constantly how the zeitgeist is
Jones (2017) changing and how this might affect their consumer, and
therefore the kind of products they will want’ (p. 7)
Dragt (2017) ‘Trend research is about detecting signs of change happening
right now and the directions these indicate to possible
futures’ (p. 13)

to arrive in the future. However, over the past few decades, the role of fashion forecasting
has been extended massively to encompass supporting the business’s strategic direction.
The forecasters’ actions can play a critical role in the decision-making process and shape
the future of the fashion business. Numerous trend forecasters have defined the scope and
definitions of trend forecasting slightly differently across time (see Table 1.1).
Perna (1987) characterised trend forecasting as providing an understanding of the near
future of fashion trends and how current events will impact on the distant future. Similarly,
Rousso and Nancy (2018) viewed fashion forecasting as an interpretation of ‘style-related
information’, placing an emphasis on the prediction of fashion style trends from the past
to the present to identify the reasons for emerging trends and suggest directions for the
future. Several other researchers (Brannon 2010; Dragt 2017; Holland and Jones 2017)
took a more holistic business perspective: they highlighted the forecaster’s ability to iden-
tify the emerging zeitgeist or innovations, to analyse the reasons the trends are emerging
and to suggest new possibilities for the future.

Scope of fashion trend forecasting

Directions in fashion trend forecasting can be categorised in various ways, depending on
the targeted aim of the trend research and the scope of analysis. Garcia (2022) observed
that fashion forecasting can be viewed as a potentially two-pronged endeavour. Firstly,
it can consist of forecasting cultural and anthropological aspects of the market, an arm
that aims to recognise and translate future cultural movements into practical strategy for
the industry. Secondly, it can function as a strategic and curatorial practice that helps
 Chapter 1 FASHION FUTURISTS’ TOOLKIT   9

Figure 1.3 Future cone (adapted from Webb, 2019).

the business to understand consumer behaviours and preferences and identify potential
opportunities and risks. Since predicting demand enables fashion retailers to produce
appropriate fashion items at the right time, it is usually one of the most crucial compo-
nents of a fashion business’s operational support system for decision-making, given the
fast-paced technological advancements and dynamic business environment of today (Ren,
Chan and Siqin 2020). Forecasting activities can serve a company’s strategic direction
and vision, and the industry’s systemic evolution with the goal of ensuring long-term sus-
tainability, taking into consideration economic cycles, prevailing lifestyle patterns, soci-
etal, cultural and technological trends and consumer preferences. Webb (2019) proposed
a ‘future cone’ that is constructed with four unique classifications: namely, tactics (1–2
years), strategy (2–5 years), vision (5–10 years) and systems-level evolution (10 or more
years) (see Figure 1.3).
Futurists provide a distinct perspective on time, and fashion professionals and business
strategists can gain valuable insights from the forecasters’ research findings.
Short-term forecasting is commonly based on a prediction of new seasonal products and
tactics for a maximum of two years before the start of the sales period. A slightly lower level
of uncertainty accompanies short-term approaches or tactics. Fashion forecasting activities
commonly entail examinations of the creative directions of fashion product directions such
as moods, colours, patterns, materials and textiles, and silhouettes. The majority of small- and
medium-sized enterprises tend to outsource trend forecasting to external agencies. Some big
retailers and luxury brands hire in-house trend forecasters to support their designers, buyers,
merchandisers, marketers, directors and other internal stakeholders to make more informed
decisions before developing their new products, services and experiences.
A business strategy and vision are commonly associated with medium-term busi-
ness activities, potentially shaping two to five years of business management. Defining a
business strategy model through a visual representation of the mechanisms, procedures,
10   FASHION TRENDS AND FORECASTING

strategies and tactics can aid in clarifying a business’s long-term operations (Okonkwo
2016). Fashion strategists, marketers and senior management teams commonly make those
strategic decisions for improving business operations through critical consideration of
major business opportunities and risks.
Systems-level changes commonly require systems thinking for the long-term sustain-
ability of the business beyond a 10-year window. Fashion entrepreneurs or a director of
an organisation commonly define the vision for 10 years ahead, but Webb (2019) suggests
that it is important to retain flexibility in making adjustments to the strategy and tactics in
response to emerging technological trends, geopolitical situations, socio-cultural transfor-
mations and economic conditions.

Anatomy of the fashion system

and the roles of forecasting

Fashion trend forecasting is a critical element of the complicated fashion system, involving
multiple stakeholders and addressing the various needs of different clients. Understanding
that holistic fashion system and the relationship with sub-systems is crucial to enable
trend forecasters to address interconnected critical issues and potential opportunities for
business innovation. Beyond its immediate borders, the fashion industry is commonly
interlinked with a vast network of international stakeholders, creating significant economic
value by converting raw materials into refined final fashion products. Figure 1.4 depicts

Figure 1.4 Anatomy of the fashion system and roles of forecasters.

 Chapter 1 FASHION FUTURISTS’ TOOLKIT   11

the complex nature of the fashion system and how fashion forecasters assist the various
actors associated with it.
Based on Payne’s (2021) fashion system classification, DeLong (2023) proposes three
fundamental and interconnected contexts for trend forecasting: industry, culture and
change. The term ‘fashion-as-industry’ refers to all the organisations involved in sourcing
materials and manufacturing textiles and garments, designing garments and selling fashion
products and services that are tailored to particular consumer groups. Fashion forecasters
often prepare trend packages for fashion business clients to support multiple stakeholders,
including fibre, yarn, fabric and textile suppliers and garment designers, as well as sup-
porting brands and retailers in distributing their products or services.
Leading colour trend forecasting firms such as Pantone, Intercolor and Coloro offer
major colour trend predictions for forthcoming seasons; textile industries frequently
adapt those colour trends when making decisions on fabric production and colour dye-
ing. Organisations such as WGSN, The Future Laboratory, Trendstop, Trend Council and
Promostyl offer valuable insights into macro- and micro-trends to fashion businesses.
Figure 1.5 illustrates how trend forecasters support a fashion company’s designers, pattern

Figure 1.5 A schematised view of fashion company actors in relation to the roles
of forecasters.
12   FASHION TRENDS AND FORECASTING

Figure 1.6 LGBTQIA community (image: Kar-Tr, 2023).

makers, marketers, merchandisers and external stakeholders, including raw material man-
ufacturers and textile and garment producers.
With regards to DeLong’s (2023) second context for forecasting, ‘fashion-as-culture’
should also be considered. This refers to the symbolic significance associated with express-
ing one’s identity within a community (see Figure 1.6) while adhering to the prevailing
styles of fashion in a specific period and location.
One of the characteristics of fashion trend forecasting is that it is a creative profession,
especially for micro-trend forecasters, one that focuses on the newly emerging disciplines
of the cultural sector: collecting (e.g. in the realm of music), filtering or curating (e.g. in the
domain of the arts), classifying or styling (e.g. in the spheres of fashion and lifestyle) and
the modes of dissemination of these cultural evolutions through certain parts of society
(Tham 2008). The fashion sector has seen substantial development and widespread adop-
tion of cultural concepts that have transformed our understanding of clothing in main-
stream society. Rae (2005) argued that cultural diffusion goes beyond conventional and
limited ideas of ‘culture production and consumption’ and that both symbolic and eco-
nomic value is created via interaction between consumers and the creative industry. This
cultural diffusion of innovation occurs when discourse about culture is exchanged and
distributed among audiences; the mere fact of creating original works of innovation is not
enough (Hur 2023). Figure 1.7 presents an example of how fashion can play a role in the
diffusion of culture.
The third and final forecasting context in DeLong’s classification is ‘fashion-as-change’,
which refers to the constant pursuit of novelty and staying current. Fashion is, by its very
nature, the inherent seeking of change. One of the main distinctions between fashion
 Chapter 1 FASHION FUTURISTS’ TOOLKIT   13

Figure 1.7 
Global appeal of Scandinavian lifestyle: The Norwegian outdoor
­adventure lifestyle (image: Everste, 2020).

companies and other organisations lies in the speed of that change. Fashion brands offer
products seasonally, or even monthly, emphasising aesthetic design, creativity and inno-
vation. Identifying emerging changes and understanding why those trends are emerging
and how they are spreading is important for enabling forecasters to propose relevant stra-
tegic directions for fashion brands.

How do fashion trends spread?

The concept of trickle effects refers to the process by which a source (e.g. a new fash-
ion style or innovation) has an impact on a ‘transmitter’, who consequently influences a
different person, known as the ‘recipient’ with whom they engage (Wo, Schminke and
Ambrose 2019). Veblen (1899) initially introduced the trickle-down theory, which has
since been widely applied in the fashion sector. Traditionally, fashion has been regarded
as a matter of relevance mainly to the privileged or upper class. Under the trickle-down
theory, high-fashion designers, their wealthy customer base and fashion publications can
influence the fashion choices of the general public. The trickle-down approach informs
a marketing model in which the acceptance of a product has a wide effect on other
consumer goods and services. Veblen’s theory holds that people imitate the consump-
tion patterns of others who have higher positions or serve as aspirational figures in the
hierarchy. This model is one of the widely accepted models in the fashion sector, as fast
fashion or value fashion brands are often highly influenced by luxury or designer brands’
14   FASHION TRENDS AND FORECASTING

products and mimic their product ranges. However, Veblen was writing in 1899. Just over
a century later, and now more than two decades ago, Trigg (2001) argued that consumers
no longer openly exhibit their wealth. Status is communicated through more refined and
nuanced methods. Consumer behaviour is now influenced by lifestyle considerations that
go beyond social class, rather than being determined by positions within it.
The trickle-up theory has emerged from the gradual growth in popularity of street
fashion and cultural sub-groups, which then climb the fashion hierarchy to high-end
designer products, representing the pinnacle of fashion. In contemporary times, fashion
is not exclusively produced, worn or displayed by the aristocracy or royalty but rather by
the general populace in public spaces. The origins of, or inspirations for, trickle-up ­fashion
concepts can be traced back to street fashion and sub-cultures, which haute luxury
designers subsequently embrace. For example, luxury fashion brands such as Supreme
and Balenciaga frequently adopt street fashion and sub-cultural lifestyles.
The trickle-across theory suggests that the diffusion of fashion occurs horizontally
within social groups that share similar social standing. The main idea of this theory is
exemplified by how Instagram, TikTok and YouTube social media users adhere to trends.
Support for this approach is evident when designers showcase a collection that encom-
passes clothing at several price ranges, ranging from high-end to more accessible ready-
to-wear and high-street fashion.
The concept of fashion dissemination has traditionally been understood through the
above three approaches (trickle-down, trickle-up, and trickle-across). However, Mohr
et al. (2021) argued that those theories have not adequately incorporated the role of tech-
nology, nor have they embraced the role of sustainable fashion trends when seeking to
comprehend the consumer’s acceptance of fashion. Combining all those approaches,
the triple-trickle theory has been proposed to elucidate the evolution of contemporary
fashion trends (see Figure 1.8 for a summary of the four trickle theories). Notably, the
place currently occupied by social media in the fashion industry has facilitated increased
engagement between consumers from various social groups, including upper-, middle- and
lower-class individuals, and fashion designers, influencers and celebrities.

Diffusion of innovations
The phenomenon of the spread of new fashion ideas and innovation is frequently char-
acterised as a societal adaption, where individuals mimic or adapt to the innovations in a
transmittable manner. Higham (2009) observed that trend forecasters commonly analyse
the following major groups: innovators, who create trends; influencers, who disseminate
the innovation; consumers who are early adopters; and cool hunters, who can identify the
innovations. One of the most widely accepted theories to describe how an idea, product,
practice or project spreads to the mainstream or diffuses throughout time in a particular
community or social environment is the ‘diffusion of innovation’ (DOI) theory introduced
by Everett Rogers in 1962 (Rogers 1962).

Innovators: fashion inventors and creators (2.5%)

Innovators (exhibiting venturesomeness) are commonly experts in their respective fields
and typically introduce novel ideas or concepts first. Innovators can be found among
disparate segments of society, such as designers, artists, scientists, technologists and
other thought leaders. Innovators are often drawn to new technologies and new ideas
 Chapter 1 FASHION FUTURISTS’ TOOLKIT   15

Figure 1.8 A summary of four trickle theories (adapted from Mohr et al., 2021).

or practices that reflect innovative characteristics, due to a desire for individuality and
novelty. The innovator can handle a significant level of uncertainty regarding a new idea
throughout its adoption.

Early adopters: fashion influencers (13.5%)

The early adopter has the most prominent level of opinion leadership within many systems.
Future adopters seek guidance and knowledge from early adopters regarding an innova-
tion. This particular group of adopters is regarded as ‘change agents’ due to their role as
local missionaries in advancing the process of dissemination (Rogers 2003). Innovations
can be introduced and spread to the public by those change agents, who today are often
‘influencers’ drawn from the ranks of celebrities, athletes, models and media personalities.

Early majority: deliberate (34%)

This cohort commonly engages in regular interactions with their peers, although they
seldom take a position of opinion leadership within a given system. This group consti-
tutes a significant proportion of adopters, accounting for around one-third of total system
members.
16   FASHION TRENDS AND FORECASTING

Late majority: sceptical (34%)

This group only adopt the innovation after a significant number of people have done so
within their system. Innovations are often met with a measure of scepticism and caution.
For this group, it is crucial to eliminate uncertainty surrounding a new idea before they
feel comfortable adopting it.

Laggards: traditional (16%)

Those who accept innovations last in a social system are known as laggards. Numerous
such adopters exist as isolated individuals within the social networks of their system.
Their decisions are frequently influenced by their own, or others’, and conventional
beliefs.

Making decisions in the innovation process

The concept of diffusion of innovation is extensively utilised by researchers and industry
professionals to understand the paths along which ideas can be conveyed into the mass
market. However, a notable limitation of diffusion research is the occurrence of a ‘pro-
innovation bias’ (Rogers 2003). This bias is grounded in the assumption that innovation
should be disseminated and embraced by all individuals within a given social system,
without the need for further invention or rejection.
Diffusion is a distinct form of communication that encompasses three essential com-
ponents: an innovation, a person or organisation actively adopting it, and a commu-
nication route (Rogers 2003; Sahin 2006). The method of innovation decision-making
has been broken down by Rogers (2003) into five phases: (1) knowledge, (2) persuasion,
(3) d
­ ecision, (4) implementation and (5) confirmation (Figure 1.9).

1. Knowledge: The first step in the innovation-decision process involves the acquisition
of knowledge. People who discover the innovation seek information related to it.
Their fundamental enquiries include the questions ‘what’, ‘how’ and ‘why’.
2. Persuasion: The persuasion stage in the innovation-decision process takes place
when the decider arrives at a positive or negative attitude towards the innova-
tion. The decider adjusts their point of view upon having learned about the
invention.
3. Decision: The decider decides whether to accept or reject the innovation during
this step in the process. Rejection indicates a decision ‘to not adopt an innovation’,
whereas adoption signifies ‘full use of an innovation as the best course of action avail-
able’ (Rogers 2003, p. 177).
4. Implementation: An innovation is put into use during its implementation phase,
which involves a certain degree of ambiguity as regards the spreading of the idea.
This stage frequently results in reinvention, making it a crucial component of
innovation.
5. Confirmation: The adopter seeks evidence to support their decision. Subsequent
implementation or discontinuance can occur at this stage, acceptance being affected
by the perspective of the adopter and their surroundings.
 Chapter 1 FASHION FUTURISTS’ TOOLKIT   17

Figure 1.9 Model of five stages in the innovation-decision process (adapted from

Rogers, 2003).

It is essential that trend forecasters have a firm grasp of the motivations behind consum-
ers’ rejection or discontinuation of an innovation. In turn, forecasters must furnish fash-
ion companies with comprehensive information regarding the potential consequences of
adopting the innovation, both in terms of opportunities and challenges, so ensuring their
awareness of all the potential value or risks in taking new directions, as well as mitigating
the ambiguity around the adoption of the innovation.
18   FASHION TRENDS AND FORECASTING

How to analyse trends?

Trend scales
There is no consensus on what process or methods are most effective in conducting
future studies to identify fashion trends. Various methods can be employed. Trends can
be examined at the scale of (1) macro or megatrends, which are considered to operate at
the global level; (2) meso-trends, which are observed at a national or regional level; and
(3) micro-trends, which are observed at the sector-specific or individual level.
Macro trends include broad sociological, economic and cultural changes that impact
substantially on society. Trends at the macro-level, often referred to as the PESTEL
(Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) or STEEP (Social,
Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political) environment (see Chapter 3), and
trends in the transactional environment in which the business or company operates, are
two distinct levels of analysis. These global and overarching macro-trend characteristics
may not be directly connected to fashion trends, but they have a substantial impact on
fashion business operations and consumer lifestyles.
Meso-trends deal with shifts noticed inside distinct societal domains, such as sector-
specific trends in clothing, beauty and homewares. According to Postma and Papp (2020),
meso-trends manifest in distinct forms and show a greater capacity to adapt to unique
circumstances within the given sectors and countries. Meso-trends can significantly influ-
ence micro-trends. Analysis of patterns of events and phenomena at a micro-level, or
recognition of macro-trends and their potential impacts, can facilitate the identification of
meso-trends.
Micro-trends are characterised by their smaller scale, shorter duration and more
­specialised focus. This trend type can be embodied in various facets of fashion, includ-
ing moods, colours, patterns, textiles, materials and silhouette design, particularly within
specific seasons or years. Micro-trends can ignite rapidly and spread widely through social
media platforms, and the trends can manifest as consumer tastes, technological advance-
ments or cultural disruptions. It is common for fashion companies, particularly fast fash-
ion brands, to adopt a seasonal or even monthly production of new garment designs in
response to micro-trends, resulting in a shorter product lead time.

Trend research methods

Trend researchers use a variety of techniques in the first stage of defining the scope of their
research. Two broad research types are employed by professional forecasters to monitor
the environments: (1) desk research, which can be carried out by analysing films, schol-
arly publications, social media, print media such as newspapers and newsletters, televi-
sion broadcasts, etc. and (2) primary research, which can be carried out by interviewing
innovators or industry experts, and visiting major events, industry-specific exhibitions and
trade shows, major art exhibitions and fashion events to capture the zeitgeist. Several
researchers and trend forecasting agencies have proposed a range of forecasting methods,
as illustrated in Boxes 1.1 and 1.2. Each approach has its own unique and distinctive char-
acteristics, but forecasters tend to follow similar research processes.
 Chapter 1 FASHION FUTURISTS’ TOOLKIT   19

BOX 1.1 CASE STUDY: WGSN’S

STEPIC METHODOLOGY
WGSN ([Link]/en) is considered one of the most influential fashion trend
forecasters, having over 6,500 clients ranging from startups to multinational organ-
isations. They offer international trend analysis, data and industry knowledge to
assist their clients in understanding consumer behaviour, lifestyles and fashion
trends, and suggest strategies for fashion and lifestyle-related products, services
and experiences. WGSN has 25 years of experience in forecasting and over 250
people with expertise in various sectors (WGSN 2024). As their main trend fore-
casting technique, WGSN uses the STEPIC methodology, which stands for society
(S), t­echnology (T), environment (E), politics (P), industry (I) and creative culture
(C). Their research methodology leverages a distinctive combination of worldwide
expert perspectives, unique data and analytics technologies and cross-sector exper-
tise using five distinctive processes: (1) observe, (2) synthesise, (3) forecast, (4) focus
and (5) re-evaluate.

1. Observe: Since WGSN has a wide range of global industry clients, they
work with various global experts from multiple fields such as data science,
­sustainability, colour studies, textile production, product design and market
research, keeping track of influential social, technological, economic, political
and environmental shifts. They add in extensive research from industry pan-
els to ensure that their forecasts recognise industry-specific context, history
and dynamics. Unlike the PEST (political, economic, social and technologi-
cal) framework, they take into account Culture and Creativity (C), which are
among the most constantly changing and complex elements to understand.
Their analysis specialises in creative sectors, affording them the understand-
ing of cultural and creative art directions necessary to serve several fashion
clients.
2. Synthesise: Once observation of the main driving forces of changes is
­complete, the main findings are synthesised. WGSN incorporates a compre-
hensive focus on Culture and Creativity to assist sector-specific businesses
in defining future aesthetics. The procedure entails the consideration of
data models and the analysis of their reasoning through rigorous critical
discussion.
3. Forecast: Forecasting activities concern the analysis of the drivers of changes
and the anticipated aesthetics that will inform the fundamental moods, colour,
textures and styles of products at the micro-trend level. The findings undergo
several evaluations and rounds of data verification and are then reviewed by
multiple industry experts to increase the research rigour and credibility of their
findings. WGSN also recently included consideration of ‘diversity and inclusion,
sustainability and global representation’.
4. Focus: In this stage, forecasters identify how macro-trends will inform micro-
trends or sector-specific predictions to cover the product styles or specific colours
and materials to be targeted to a specific market segment, such as women, men,
or children, or product segment, such as skincare.
20   FASHION TRENDS AND FORECASTING

5. Re-evaluate: As fresh signals of a shift are always being processed, the forecast-
ing cycle evolves continuously. When forecasters identify new research findings,
they need to address those changes to help them contextualise that newfound
information for their specific clients.

BOX 1.2 CASE STUDY: LS:N GLOBAL

AND THE TREND CARTOGRAM
LS:N Global ([Link]) is a platform developed by The Future Laboratory
that focuses on trend intelligence and consumer forecasting. They seek to provide
businesses with the necessary skills and knowledge to navigate a dynamic future
landscape of trend forecasting. This includes insights into the evolving consumer pref-
erences and effective use of global trends, market-leading foresight and innovations
within the lifestyle sector (LS:N Global 2024). Martin Raymond (2010), ­co-founder
and editor-in-chief of LS:N Global, conceptualised the key anatomy of their trend
­cartogram as comprising the following five major trend research ­elements: i­ nnovators,
drivers, impacts, consequences and trend future. A trend cartogram serves as a valu-
able tool for uncovering the cultural zeitgeist and capturing the interconnections
between trends in relation to products or services, corporate practices and broader
cultural changes. The visual trend cartogram facilitates the investigation of complex
interactions and patterns through a visual map (refer to Figure 1.10), aiding the
comprehension of the full relationships across trend levels from a holistic standpoint
­capturing the holistic interconnections.

Trend innovators: Rogers’s DOI theory offers valuable insights into the process by
which innovative ideas, concepts, fashion products and technology can be dif-
fused among different types of audiences. Identifying the major innovators who
are instigating the change and what major innovations are currently emerging is
important to delineate the initial stage of the research.
Trend drivers: One major shift in the fashion industry can be linked to several f­ actors,
but addressing the primary catalysts of innovation and the reason behind these
catalysts is crucial for comprehending the main forces driving the dissemination
of a specific trend.
Trend impacts: Forecasters need to take into account the people who will be
affected by the specific trend and examine their distinct consumer behaviour,
perceptions, requirements and desires. The identification of the impacts of
­certain trends involves evaluating the location and timing of innovation, as well
as assessing the impact itself.
Trend consequences: Understanding the consequences and implications of the
­factors influencing new fashion, lifestyle, product or service innovation within a
specific business context provides the basis for refining future possibilities.
 Chapter 1 FASHION FUTURISTS’ TOOLKIT   21

Figure 1.10 
Example of trend research questions for creating a trend
cartogram.

Trend futures: It is crucial to review the implications of the long-term consequences

of a trend on society, a community, a group or an industry sector and gain ­further
expert feedback to evaluate the final results.

Scan, analyse, apply

Dragt (2017) proposed three major actions for trend research: (1) ‘Scan: the art of looking
sideways’, (2) ‘Analyse: connecting the dots’ and (3) ‘Apply: innovate or die!’.

1. Scan: Scanning entails identifying future manifestations through honing the skill of side-
ways observation, scanning the surroundings for potential catalysts of transformation.
22   FASHION TRENDS AND FORECASTING

2. Analyse: After identifying trend spots, forecasters seek to identify the fundamental
shifts in values and the requirements fashion businesses will need to meet to keep
pace with them. Forecasters identify patterns among many trend manifestations and
organise them into cohesive clusters of trends. They then attempt to articulate and
visually represent these patterns in a manner that is both inspiring and clear to others.
3. Apply: The analysis step will yield a comprehensive summary of many patterns. The
apply phase involves selecting the trends to be implemented and incorporating them
into innovation processes within a defined scope (e.g. a sector, product or service).
The application of trend insights is tailored to meeting the goals of the company and
target audience.

Process of strategic foresight

Similar to the three-step approach above, six steps for accomplishing strategic foresight
have been defined by the Association of Professional Futurists (APF) (Gordon, Rohrbeck
and Schwarz 2019) at [Link] The steps are:

1. Framing or delineating a central concern and the prevailing circumstances.

2. Scanning, which involves uncovering indications of a shift.
3. Futuring, which entails determining standard and alternative futures.
4. Visioning, which involves creating and dedicating oneself to a desired future.
5. Designing, or the process of creating prototypes, offers or artefacts with which to
accomplish a specific vision and aims.
6. Adapting, which empowers organisations to create alternatives for different future scenarios.

Discussion

Connecting many inputs and synthesising them to establish a clear and coherent vision
of potential future outcomes can be an essential task for forecasters. As can be seen
from Figure 1.11 summarising the major trend forecasting approaches, forecasters tend

Figure 1.11 Comparison of forecasting approaches.

 Chapter 1 FASHION FUTURISTS’ TOOLKIT   23

to follow a similar process, proceeding from gaining an understanding of overarching

macro-environments to the micro-landscape, identifying innovators’ activities, evaluating
and synthesising the results to the specific focus on the market sector or consumer group
of interest to the client, and designing creative strategies for applying the trends to future
products, services or experiences by a specific company.
Depending on the types of forecasters and their roles, forecasters work with diverse
sources. Their work may comprise (1) analysing past and present consumer lifestyle
trends through observing key social media trends, unconventional travel locations, or new
or revival trends in food, drink and leisure activities; (2) carefully examining such cultural
shifts as art, design and fashion trends; (3) analysing patterns of change and identifying
their trajectory by analysing innovative and unconventional business activities, cutting-
edge and innovative products and emerging retail destinations, innovative store layouts
and enhanced customer offerings; and (4) comparing historical data and past product
sales.
Trend forecasters require a storehouse of knowledge to identify key innovators’ activi-
ties and macro-trends, such as social, environmental, technological, financial, cultural
and geopolitical shifts; to identify drivers, impacts and consequences; and to point to the
future implications for specific clients’ businesses. Figure 1.12 depicts a summary of how
to use a trend cartogram in the trend research process (adapted from WGSN research
process and trend cartogram approach).

Figure 1.12 Example of a trend cartogram and research process.

24   FASHION TRENDS AND FORECASTING

Chapter summary

Forecasters assist in various decision-making processes inside a fashion brand, including

sales, design, purchasing, marketing, manufacturing, merchandising and more. Their roles
can span from the macro – identifying and analysing prevailing social, cultural, techno-
logical and industrial shifts – to the meso – capturing emerging innovative practices – to
the micro. But at whatever level the forecaster is operating, an unwavering awareness
of the complexity and interconnectedness of the fashion industry is paramount. Armed
with this holistic understanding of the fashion business system, the fashion forecaster is
better equipped to capture the ever-evolving transformations and challenges in this most
changeable of industries.

Discussion questions

●● Why are understanding fashion consumer trends and forecasting critical for fashion
businesses, designers, marketers, buyers and strategists?
●● How do forecasters discover the zeitgeist and what is the zeitgeist of this year?
●● What are the roles of trend innovators and influencers in shaping consumer
lifestyles?

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Trend forecasting in virtual worlds

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