analyze sample survey data (e.g.
, from 1,000 voters) and infer likely behavior or opinions of the
entire electorate.
Key Concepts and Tools in Inferential Statistics
1. Population vs. Sample
• Population: The entire group of interest (e.g., all voters in Bihar).
• Sample: A smaller group selected from the population (e.g., 1,200 voters
from Patna and Pipra).
2. Hypothesis Testing
• Used to test assumptions about a population.
• Null Hypothesis (H₀): No effect or relationship.
• Alternative Hypothesis (H₁): An effect or relationship exists.
• Example: Does caste identity affect voting choice?
3. Confidence Intervals
• A range of values that likely includes the population parameter (often
95% confidence).
• Example: If 65% of a sample supports a policy, the confidence interval
might be 62–68%.
4. p-value and Statistical Significance
• The p-value tells us the probability that results are due to chance.
• If p < 0.05, we usually reject the null hypothesis (statistically
significant).
5. Correlation and Regression Analysis
• Correlation shows the strength and direction of a relationship between
two variables.
• Example: Higher education levels might correlate with higher voter
turnout.
• Regression goes further by explaining how much one variable affects
another.
• Example: How income, gender, and education predict political
participation.
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Applications in Political Science
• Predicting election outcomes from exit polls.
• Testing if social media usage increases political awareness among youth.
• Evaluating the impact of a government scheme based on survey responses.
Indian Context Example
In Lokniti-CSDS surveys, inferential statistics are used to:
• Generalize voter behavior across states.
• Analyze whether caste or religion significantly affects political preference.
• Predict voter swing based on sample polling.
Conclusion
Inferential statistics are essential for turning data into knowledge in political science. They allow
us to make educated assumptions, test political theories, and evaluate public policies with
scientific rigor.
Causation and Prediction in Quantitative Political Analysis
1. Introduction
In political science, understanding why something happens (causation) and what is likely to
happen (prediction) are fundamental goals of research. Quantitative methods provide tools to
analyze these aspects rigorously.
2. Causation (Cause-and-Effect Relationship)
Definition:
“Causation implies that changes in one variable directly result in changes in
another.”
— King, Keohane, & Verba (1994), Designing Social Inquiry
Key Features of Causal Relationships:
1. Temporal Precedence: Cause must occur before the effect.
2. Covariation: There must be a statistical association.
3. Non-spuriousness: The relationship is not due to a third factor.
Types of Causation:
• Necessary Cause: Must be present for the effect to occur.
Example: Electoral participation is necessary for democratic legitimacy.
• Sufficient Cause: Alone can produce the effect.
Example: Disqualification of a candidate may be sufficient to cause a by-election.
Example in Political Science:
• A study finds that higher education causes higher political awareness.
• Reservation policies are studied to determine whether they cause increased
political representation of SC/ST communities.
3. Tools to Establish Causation in Quantitative Analysis
1. Experiments (e.g., Randomized Controlled Trials)
Rare in political science but used in field experiments like voter mobilization studies.
Green & Gerber (2008) conducted experiments on increasing voter turnout.
2. Statistical Models (Regression Analysis)
Helps isolate the effect of one variable while controlling for others.
Example: Does gender impact political participation when controlling for education and income?
3. Panel Data and Longitudinal Studies
Observing changes over time to detect causal patterns.
Example: Lokniti-CSDS surveys over multiple elections.
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4. Prediction in Political Science
Definition:
“Prediction involves using known data to forecast unknown future events or
behaviors.”
— Alan Agresti & Barbara Finlay (2009), Statistical Methods for the Social Sciences
Purpose of Prediction:
• To forecast election outcomes, public opinion shifts, policy impacts, etc.
• Supports policy planning, crisis anticipation, and campaign strategy.
Methods Used:
• Regression Models: Predict how a change in independent variables will
affect the dependent variable.
• Time Series Analysis: Analyzing data across time to detect trends (e.g.,
voter turnout trends).
• Machine Learning Algorithms (advanced level): Predictive modeling using
large datasets.
Example of Prediction:
• Survey Data predicts that 65% of youth in Bihar are likely to vote in the next
election.
• Election forecasting models (like those used by Rajeeva Karandikar) predict
party performance based on past trends and swing analysis.
5. Difference Between Causation and Prediction
Aspect Causation Prediction
Goal Understand why Forecast what is likely
something happens to happen
Basis Cause-effect Patterns, trends,
relationships associations
Method Controlled Regression, machine
experiments, learning, forecasting
regression
Example Does media exposure Will voter turnout
increase voter increase in 2029?
turnout?
6. Indian Scholars’ Contributions
• Yogendra Yadav: Used survey data to study causal links between caste and
voting behavior.
• Sanjay Kumar: Worked on election prediction and voter behavior using CSDS
data.
• Rajeeva Karandikar: Developed predictive statistical models for elections in
India.
• Suhas Palshikar: Combined causal analysis with qualitative insights to
understand democratic deepening.
7. Conclusion
Understanding causation helps explain why political events and behaviors occur, while
prediction helps prepare for what might happen next. Both are central to making political
science scientific and policy-relevant. With careful data analysis and theoretical clarity, political
scientists can move beyond speculation to evidence-based insights.
