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RiskAMP Reference

The RiskAMP Reference Manual provides comprehensive guidance on using the RiskAMP add-in for Excel, which facilitates probability simulations and statistical analysis. It details various simulation functions, continuous and discrete distributions, and the concept of Reference Cells that store simulation results for further analysis. The manual includes specific examples of functions such as SimulationAverage, SimulationCorrelation, and various distribution functions, enabling users to effectively analyze simulation data.

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Hellen Hendriks
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
22 views56 pages

RiskAMP Reference

The RiskAMP Reference Manual provides comprehensive guidance on using the RiskAMP add-in for Excel, which facilitates probability simulations and statistical analysis. It details various simulation functions, continuous and discrete distributions, and the concept of Reference Cells that store simulation results for further analysis. The manual includes specific examples of functions such as SimulationAverage, SimulationCorrelation, and various distribution functions, enabling users to effectively analyze simulation data.

Uploaded by

Hellen Hendriks
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

RiskAMP Reference Manual

_______________________________________

RiskAMP Version 
Structured Data, LLC

.
RiskAMP is a trademark of Strucuted Data, LLC. Excel® is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation. Other
trademarks are held by their respective owners. For more information, visit our website at http://www.riskamp.com.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 1


Contents
Reference Cell............................................................................................................................................4
Simulation Functions................................................................................................................................. 5
Average.............................................................................................................................................6
Correlation........................................................................................................................................ 7
Covariance........................................................................................................................................ 8
Interval..............................................................................................................................................9
Kurtosis...........................................................................................................................................10
Maximum........................................................................................................................................11
Median............................................................................................................................................ 12
Minimum........................................................................................................................................ 13
Mode............................................................................................................................................... 14
Percentile........................................................................................................................................ 15
Skewness........................................................................................................................................ 16
Standard Deviation......................................................................................................................... 17
Trials............................................................................................................................................... 18
Value...............................................................................................................................................19
Variance..........................................................................................................................................20
Sorted Simulation Index................................................................................................................. 21
Continuous Distributions......................................................................................................................... 22
Arcsine ...........................................................................................................................................23
Beta ................................................................................................................................................ 24
Cauchy / Lorentz ............................................................................................................................25
Chi-Square ..................................................................................................................................... 26
Cosine ............................................................................................................................................ 27
Double Log .................................................................................................................................... 28
Erlang .............................................................................................................................................29
Exponential..................................................................................................................................... 30
Extreme Value................................................................................................................................ 31
F Ratio............................................................................................................................................ 32
Gamma............................................................................................................................................33
Laplace (Double Exponential)........................................................................................................34
Logarithmic.....................................................................................................................................35
Logistic........................................................................................................................................... 36
Lognormal...................................................................................................................................... 37
Normal (Gaussian)..........................................................................................................................38
Parabolic......................................................................................................................................... 39
Pareto.............................................................................................................................................. 40
Pearson's Type 5 (Inverted Gamma).............................................................................................. 41
Pearson's Type 6............................................................................................................................. 42
Power.............................................................................................................................................. 43
Rayleigh..........................................................................................................................................44
Student's t........................................................................................................................................45

RiskAMP Reference Manual 2


Triangular....................................................................................................................................... 46
Uniform.......................................................................................................................................... 47
Weibull........................................................................................................................................... 48
Discrete Distributions.............................................................................................................................. 49
Bernoulli......................................................................................................................................... 50
Binomial......................................................................................................................................... 51
Geometric....................................................................................................................................... 52
Hypergeometric.............................................................................................................................. 53
Negative Binomial.......................................................................................................................... 54
Pascal.............................................................................................................................................. 55
Poisson............................................................................................................................................56

RiskAMP Reference Manual 3


Reference Cell

In order to most effectively utilize the calculation and modeling abilities of Excel, the RiskAMP add-in
stores all simulation results within the spreadsheet, so that subsequent functions can analyze the
simulation results and generate a statistical analysis.
For each iteration of a probability simulation, the entire spreadsheet is recalculated. In a typical
simulation, this can happen hundreds or thousands of times. For the subsequent analysis, we need to
reach back over each iteration and find values from the calculated spreadsheet.
It's not practical to store the contents of every cell in the spreadsheet for each iteration. This would use
up a lot of memory and add to the processing time. Therefore, the RiskAMP add-in uses a concept of
Reference Cells. Basically, the idea is that a simulation function – one of the RiskAMP statistical
analysis functions – must refer to a cell in the spreadsheet before the data from that cell is stored.
For each reference cell – each cell that is referred to by a simulation function – the probability
simulation engine stores the value of that cell at each iteration of a simulation. That means that every
value of that cell can later be retrieved, and the cell can be used as the basis for later analysis.

One of the most useful features of the reference cell concept is that once the cell data is stored, it can be
used for any simulation analysis function – even functions that were not originally intended to be used.
This allows users of the add-in to explore data and statistics after the simulation has completed,
changing parameters and reviewing the model, withing re-running the simulation. Of course the
simulation can be re-run at any time, to generate new data or to modify the simulation model.
Many of the simulation analysis and statistics functions in the RiskAMP add-in use the concept of
Reference Cells. During a probability simulation, the entire spreadsheet is recalculated. Any cells
containing random variables (using the RiskAMP random functions or built-in Excel random functions)
will be populated with new values.

In addition, the reference cell can be any cell in a spreadsheet – not just one of the RiskAMP random
distribution functions. That means that any value, or function result, can form the basis of a probability
simulation. You are not limited to the random functions the add-in provides.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 4


Simulation Functions

Simulation functions are used to analyze the results of a probability simulation, after the simulation has
run. In general, simulation functions take one or more Reference Cells as parameters (in addition to
any additional parameters); see the section on Reference Cells for more information on the concept.
Simulation functions can return both statistical values (i.e. analyses of the complete simulation) and
discrete results (i.e. results from a particular iteration of the simulation).

SimulationAverage
SimulationCorrelation
SimulationCovariance
SimulationInterval
SimulationKurtosis
SimulationMax
SimulationMean
SimulationMedian
SimulationMin
SimulationMode
SimulationPercentile
SimulationSkewness
SimulationStandardDeviation
SimulationTrials
SimulationValue
SimulationVariance
SortedSimulationIndex

RiskAMP Reference Manual 5


Average
Spreadsheet Function: SimulationAverage
This function is also available as SimulationMean
Parameters: ref : the reference cell

Example: = SIMULATIONAVERAGE( A1 )

The SimulationAverage function returns the mean, or average value, of the reference cell over all
iterations of the simulation.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 6


Correlation
Spreadsheet Function: SimulationCorrelation
Parameters: ref 1 : the first reference cell
ref 2 : the second reference cell

Example: = SIMULATIONCORRELATION( A1, A2 )

The SimulationCorrelation function returns the observed correlation between any two spreadsheet cells
over all iterations of the most recently run simulation.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 7


Covariance
Spreadsheet Function: SimulationCovariance
Parameters: ref 1 : the first reference cell
ref 2 : the second reference cell

Example: = SIMULATIONCOVARIANCE( A1, A2 )

The SimulationCovariance function returns the observed covariance between any two spreadsheet cells
over all iterations of the most recently run simulation.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 8


Interval
Spreadsheet Function: SimulationInterval
Parameters: ref : the reference cell
min : the minimum value of the interval (optional)
max : the maximum value of the interval (optional)

Example: = SIMULATIONINTERVAL( A1, , 1 )

The SimulationInterval function returns the probability (expressed as a percent) that over all iterations
of the simulation, the observed value of the reference cell falls between the given minimum and
maximum values.
If the minimum value is omitted, the function will return the probability that the value lies below the
given maximum; similarly, if the maximum value is omitted, the function will return the probability
that the value lies above the given minimum.
This function is used to determine the probability, after running a simulation, that a particular value
will be reached or achieved. For example, in a project planning model, the function can be used to
determine the likelihood – using a probability simulation – that the project will be completed on
schedule, or within certain tolerances (one month, two months, etc).

RiskAMP Reference Manual 9


Kurtosis
Spreadsheet Function: SimulationKurtosis
Parameters: ref : the reference cell

Example: = SIMULATIONINTERVAL( A1 )

The SimulationKurtosis function returns the kurtosis of the reference cell, over all iterations of the most
recently run simulation. Kurtosis is the degree of peakedness of a distribution, relative to a normal
distribution. Perfectly normally-distributed data will have kurtosis of 3.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 10


Maximum
Spreadsheet Function: SimulationMax
Parameters: ref : the reference cell

Example: = SIMULATIONMAX( A1 )

The SimulationMax function returns the maximum observed value of the reference cell, over all
iterations of the most recently run simulation.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 11


Median
Spreadsheet Function: SimulationMedian
Parameters: ref : the reference cell

Example: = SIMULATIONMEDIAN( A1 )

The SimulationMedian function returns the median value of the reference cell, over all iterations of the
most recently run simulation.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 12


Minimum
Spreadsheet Function: SimulationMin
Parameters: ref : the reference cell

Example: = SIMULATIONMIN( A1 )

The SimulationMax function returns the minimum observed value of the reference cell, over all
iterations of the most recently run simulation.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 13


Mode
Spreadsheet Function: SimulationMode
Parameters: ref : the reference cell

Example: = SIMULATIONMODE( A1 )

The SimulationMedian function returns the mode (most commonly observed value) of the reference
cell, over all iterations of the most recently run simulation. This function does not return a true mode,
but a synthetic mode derived by placing results into "buckets" (much like creating a histogram).

RiskAMP Reference Manual 14


Percentile
Spreadsheet Function: SimulationPercentile
Parameters: ref : the reference cell
percentile : the percentile value to retrieve

Example: = SIMULATIONPERCENTILE( A1, 0.10 )

The SimulationPercentile function returns the expected value of the reference cell corresponding to the
given percentile over all iterations of the simulation. A percentile value of 50% will return the mean
value of the reference cell; 0% will return the minimum value of the reference cell; and 100% will
return the maximum value of the reference cell.
This is one of the most useful functions in analyzing simulation data, but its use can be confusing at
first. An understanding of how this function works can be helpful in utilizing it in spreadsheet models.
In order to determine the value at a given probability, the function first sorts all observed values of the
reference cell over all iterations of the simulation in ascending order (low to high). It then returns the
value corresponding to the percentile – e.g., in a simulation of 100 iterations, the 90th percentile
corresponds to the 90th-highest value. Because the values have been sorted, we can say that in this
simulation, 90% of the observed values fall at or below the returned value (and correspondingly, 10%
of all values are at or higher than the returned value).

Normally-distributed values returned from a The same values sorted in ascending order, with the 90th
random function percentile value marked

In this manner the function can be used to describe confidence levels. In an investment return scenario,
for example, the 10th percentile can be used to determine the minimum expected return, in all but the
worst 10% of cases. This corresponds to a one-way confidence level1 of 90%; that is, we are 90%
confident that in a simulation, we will see a return equal to or better than the given value.

1 Two-way confidence levels are also commonly used to analyze data. A two-way confidence level is derived by taking
the values at the center, rather than one side of the data. For example, a two-way confidence level of 90% is determined
by finding the values at the 5th percentile and the 95th percentile. We know that 90% of the values lie between these two
points; therefore, the 5th and 95th percentiles represent the low and high values of a 90% two-way confidence interval.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 15


Skewness
Spreadsheet Function: SimulationSkewness
Parameters: ref : the reference cell

Example: = SIMULATIONSKEWNESS( A1 )

The SimulationSkewness function returns the skewness of the reference cell over all iterations of the
most recently run simulation. Skewness refers to the degree of asymmetry of a distribution. The
normal distribution should be symmetric about the mean, with a skewness value of 0.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 16


Standard Deviation
Spreadsheet Function: SimulationStandardDeviation
Parameters: ref : the reference cell

Example: = SIMULATIONSTANDARDDEVIATION( A1 )

The SimulationStandardDeviation function returns the standard deviation of the reference cell over all
iterations of the most recently run simulation.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 17


Trials
Spreadsheet Function: SimulationTrials
Parameters:

Example: = SIMULATIONTRIALS( )

The SimulationTrials function returns the number of trials, or iterations, used in the most recently run
simulation. This function can be used as the base for custom analysis of data or reporting; it is often
used as the divisor in some analytic method.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 18


Value
Spreadsheet Function: SimulationValue
Parameters: ref : the reference cell
index : the iteration number to retreive

Example: = SIMULATIONVALUE( A1, 1 )

The SimulationValue function returns the observed value of a particular cell at a given iteration (the
index) of the most recent simulation. For any cell in a spreadsheet, the value at each iteration can be
retrieved using this method.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 19


Variance
Spreadsheet Function: SimulationVariance
Parameters: ref : the reference cell

Example: = SIMULATIONVARIANCE( A1 )

The SimulationVariance function returns the variance of the reference cell over all iterations of the
most recently run simulation.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 20


Sorted Simulation Index
Spreadsheet Function: SortedSimulationIndex
Parameters: ref : the reference cell
value : the target value to retrieve

Example: = SORTEDSIMULATIONINDEX( A1, 100 )

This function is unique in that it returns an iteration index, rather than an observed or derived value.
The output of the function, an index, is intended for passing to the SimulationValue function (which
returns the value of a reference cell at a particular iteration of the simulation). This function can be
used to determine the value of an input cell at iterations of the simulation in which some other output
cell reached a particular value.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 21


Continuous Distributions

Generally speaking, continuous distributions return the probability that an event will occur or not
occur, based on input parameters particular to the distribution. The basic forms of most distributions
return probability values between 0 and 1, although many of the functions contained in the add-in
include parameters that affect the scale and offset of the returned values.
The continuous distribution functions contained in the add-in follow. See the description of the
distribution for more information on the add-in functions.

ArcSineValue LognormalValue
BetaValue NormalValue
CauchyValue ParabolicValue
ChiSquareValue ParetoValue
CosineValue Pearson5Value
DoubleLogValue Pearson6Value
ErlangValue PowerValue
ExponentialValue RayleighValue
FRatioValue StudentTValue
GammaValue TriangularValue
LaplaceValue UniformValue
LogarithmicValue WeibullValue
LogisticValue

RiskAMP Reference Manual 22


Arcsine
Spreadsheet Function: ArcsineValue
Parameters: xmin : minimum value of the returned random variable
xmax : maximum value of the returned random variable

Example: = ARCSINEVALUE( 0, 1 )

{ }
1
0 x1
Density: f  x =   x 1− x
0 otherwise

{ }
0 x0
2
sin   x 
−1
Distribution: F  x = 0x1

1 x1

RiskAMP Reference Manual 23


Beta
Spreadsheet Function: BetaValue
Parameters: v : first shape parameter v > 0
w : second shape parameter w > 0

Example: = BETAVALUE( 1, 5 )

Density: f  x =
{ x v−1 1−x w−1
Bv , w
0
0 x1
otherwise
} 1
where Bv , wis the beta function B v , w≡∫ t
v−1 w−1
1−t  dt
0

Distribution: F  x = { B x v , w/Bv , w
0
0x1
otherwise } x
where B x v , wis the incomplete beta function B x v , w ≡∫ t
v−1 w−1
1−t  dt
0

RiskAMP Reference Manual 24


Cauchy / Lorentz
Spreadsheet Function: CauchyValue
Parameters: a : location parameter
b : scale parameter

Example: = CAUCHYVALUE( 0, 1 )

[  ]
2 −1
Density: 1 x −a
f  x = 1 −∞x∞
b b

Distribution:
1 1
F  x =  tan−1
2   
x −a
b
−∞ x∞

RiskAMP Reference Manual 25


Chi-Square
Spreadsheet Function: ChiSquareValue
Parameters: v : degrees of freedom v ≥ 1

Example: = CHISQUAREVALUE( 1 )

Density: f  x =
{ x v /2 −1 e− x/ 2
v/ 2
2 Γ v / 2
0
if x0

otherwise
} ∞
where Γ z  is the gamma function Γ  z ≡∫ t z −1 e−t dt
0

{ }
x
1
Distribution:
F  x = v/ 2 ∫
2 Γ v /2 0
t  v /2−1 e−t /2 dt if x0

0 otherwise

RiskAMP Reference Manual 26


Cosine
Spreadsheet Function: CosineValue
Parameters: xmin : minimum value of the returned random variable
xmax : maximum value of the returned random variable

Example: = COSINEVALUE( 0, 1 )

Density: f  x =
{ 1
2b  
cos
0
x−a
b
x min xx max
otherwise
}
{ }
0 x x min

Distribution: F  x = 1
2[  ]
1sin
x−a
b
x min xx max

1 x x max

RiskAMP Reference Manual 27


Double Log
Spreadsheet Function: DoubleLogValue
Parameters: xmin : minimum value of the returned random variable
xmax : maximum value of the returned random variable

Example: = DOUBLELOGVALUE( 0, 1 )

{   }
1 ∣x−a∣
− ln x min x x max
Density: f  x = 2b b
0 otherwise

{  [  ]
}
1 ∣x −a∣ ∣x−a∣
− 1−ln x min  xa
2 2b b
Distribution: F  x =

2
 
1 ∣x −a∣
2b
1−ln[ 
∣x−a∣
b ] a xx max

RiskAMP Reference Manual 28


Erlang
Spreadsheet Function: ErlangValue
Parameters: b : scale parameter b > 0
c : shape parameter c, a positive integer

Example: = ERLANGVALUE( 1, 2 )

Density: f  x =
{  x /b c−1 e−x /b
bc−1!
0
x0
otherwise
}
{ }
c−1 i
 x /b
1−e−x/ b ∑ x0
Distribution: F  x = i =0 i!
0 otherwise

RiskAMP Reference Manual 29


Exponential
Spreadsheet Function: ExponentialValue
Parameters: a : location parameter a, any real number
b : scale parameter b > 0

Example: = EXPONENTIALVALUE( 0, 1 )

{ }
1 − x−a / b
e x a
Density: f  x = b
0 otherwise

Distribution: F  x = { 1−e− x−a / b


0
xa
otherwise }

RiskAMP Reference Manual 30


Extreme Value
Spreadsheet Function: ExtremeValue
Parameters: a : location parameter a, any real number
b : scale parameter b > 0

Example: = EXTREMEVALUE( 0, 1 )

1
Density: f  x = e  x−a / b exp [−e  x−a /b ] −∞x ∞
b

Distribution: F  x =1−exp [−e x−a  /b ] −∞x∞

RiskAMP Reference Manual 31


F Ratio
Spreadsheet Function: FRatioValue
Parameters: v : shape parameter 1 (degrees of freedom), a positive integer
w : shape parameter 2 (degrees of freedom), a positive integer

Example: = FRATIOVALUE( 4, 4 )

{ }
Γ [  vw / 2 ]  v /wv /2 x v−2 / 2
x0
Density: f  x = Γ v / 2Γ  w/2 1 xv /w v w/ 2
0 otherwise

where Γ z  is the gamma function Γ  z ≡∫ t
z −1 −t
e dt
0

Distribution: No closed form, in general.

RiskAMP Reference Manual 32


Gamma
Spreadsheet Function: GammaValue
Parameters: a : location parameter
b : scale parameter b > 0
c: shape parameter c > 0

Example: = GAMMAVALUE( 0, 1, 2 )

{ }
1 −c
b  x−ac−1 e − x−a / b xa
Density: f  x = Γ c 
0 otherwise

where Γ z  is the gamma function Γ  z ≡∫ t
z −1 −t
e dt
0
If n is an integer, Γ n= n−1!

Distribution: No closed form, in general. However, if c is a positive integer, then

{   }
c−1 k
1 x−a
1−e − x−a / b ∑ xa
F  x = k=0 k! b
0 otherwise

RiskAMP Reference Manual 33


Laplace (Double Exponential)
Spreadsheet Function: LaplaceValue
Parameters: a : location parameter a, any real number
b : scale parameter b > 0

Example: = LAPLACEVALUE( 0, 1 )

Density: f  x =
1
2b 
exp −
∣ x−a∣
b  −∞x∞

{ }
1  x−a  /b
e xa
2
Distribution: F  x =
1
1− e− x−a /b xa
2

RiskAMP Reference Manual 34


Logarithmic
Spreadsheet Function: LogarithmicValue
Parameters: xmin : minimum value of the returned random variable
xmax : maximum value of the returned random variable

Example: = LOGARITHMICVALUE( 0, 1 )

Density: f  x =
{ 1
− ln
b  
0
x−a
b
x min x x max
otherwise
}
{ }
0 xx min

Distribution: F  x =
 [  ]
x−a
b
1−ln
x−a
b
x min x x max

1 xx max

RiskAMP Reference Manual 35


Logistic
Spreadsheet Function: LogisticValue
Parameters: a : location parameter a, any real number
b : scale parameter b > 0

Example: = LOGISTICVALUE( 0, 1 )

1 e x−a  /b
Density: f  x = −∞x∞
b [ 1e x−a /b ]2

1
Distribution: F  x = − x− a /b
−∞x∞
1e

RiskAMP Reference Manual 36


Lognormal
Spreadsheet Function: LognormalValue
Parameters: mu (μ) : mean of the distribution (scale parameter)
sigma (σ) : standard deviation σ > 0 (shape parameter)
a : location parameter a, any real number

Example: = LOGNORMALVALUE( 0, 1, 0 )

Density: f  x =
{ 1
 2   x−a
exp
[
0
−[ ln  x−a −2 ]
2 2 ] xa

otherwise
}
{{ [ ]} }
1 ln  x−a−
1erf xa
Distribution: F  x = 2 2 
0 otherwise

RiskAMP Reference Manual 37


Normal (Gaussian)
Spreadsheet Function: NormalValue
Parameters: mu (μ) : mean of the distribution (scale parameter)
sigma (σ) : standard deviation σ > 0 (shape parameter)

Example: = NORMALVALUE( 0, 1 )

Density: f  x =
1
 2 
exp
[− x−2
2 2 ]
Distribution: F  x =
1
2[  ]
1erf
x−
2 

RiskAMP Reference Manual 38


Parabolic
Spreadsheet Function: ParabolicValue
Parameters: xmin : minimum value of the returned random variable
xmax : maximum value of the returned random variable

Example: = PARABOLICVALUE( 0, 1 )

[  ]
2
3 x−a
Density: f  x = 1− x min xx max
4b b

a2 b− x x−ab2


Distribution: F  x = x min x x max
4 b3

RiskAMP Reference Manual 39


Pareto
Spreadsheet Function: ParetoValue
Parameters: c : shape parameter c > 0

Example: = PARETOVALUE( 1 )

{ }
−c−1
x 1
Density: f  x = cx
0 otherwise

{ }
−c
F  x = 1− x x1
Distribution:
0 otherwise

RiskAMP Reference Manual 40


Pearson's Type 5 (Inverted Gamma)
Spreadsheet Function: Pearson5Value
Parameters: b : scale parameter b > 0
c : shape parameter c > 0

Example: = PEARSON5VALUE( 1, 2 )

Density: f  x =
{ x−c1 e−b / x
−c
b Γ  c
0
if x0

otherwise
} ∞
where Γ z  is the gamma function Γ  z ≡∫ t z −1 e−t dt
0

{ }
Γ c , b / x
if x0
Distribution: F  x = Γ c 
0 otherwise

where Γ a , z is the incomplete gamma function Γ a , z ≡∫ t
a −1 −t
e dt
z

RiskAMP Reference Manual 41


Pearson's Type 6
Spreadsheet Function: Pearson6Value
Parameters: b : scale parameter b > 0
v : shape parameter v > 0
w : second shape parameter w > 0

Example: = PEARSON6VALUE( 1, 2, 4 )

{ }
 x /bv−1
vw
if x0
Density: f  x = b B v , w [ 1 x /b ]
0 otherwise
1
where Bv , wis the beta function B v , w≡∫ t
v−1 w−1
1−t  dt
0

Distribution: F  x =
{ FB
x
xb
0
  if x0
otherwise
}
where F B  x is the distribution function of a B v , w random variable

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Power
Spreadsheet Function: PowerValue
Parameters: c : shape parameter c > 0

Example: = POWERVALUE( 1 )

Density: f  x =cx c−1 0 x1

Distribution: F  x =x c 0 x1

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Rayleigh
Spreadsheet Function: RayleighValue
Parameters: a : location parameter a, any real number
b : scale parameter b > 0

Example: = RAYLEIGHVALUE( 0, 1 )

{   [  ] }
2 2
2 x−a x−a
exp − xa
Density: f  x = x−a b b
0 otherwise

{ [  ] }
2
x−a
F  x = 1−exp − xa
Distribution: b
0 otherwise

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Student's t
Spreadsheet Function: StudentTValue
Parameters: v : degrees of freedom v, a positive integer

Example: = STUDENTTVALUE( 1 )

 
− v1 / 2
Γ [ v1/2 ] x2
Density: f  x = 1 −∞x∞
  v Γ v /2 v

where Γ z  is the gamma function Γ  z ≡∫ t
z −1 −t
e dt
0

Distribution: No closed form, in general.

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Triangular
Spreadsheet Function: TriangularValue
Parameters: xmin : minimum value of the returned random variable
mode : most likely value of the returned random variable
xmax : maximum value of the returned random variable

Example: = TRIANGULARVALUE( 0, 1, 2 )

{ }
2 x−x min
x min x c
x max −x min c− x min
Density: f  x =
x x max −x
cx x max
x max −x min x max−c

{ }
 x−x min 2
x min xc
 x max −x min c−x min 
Distribution: F  x = 2
 x max− x
1− cx x max
 x max −x min  x max−c

RiskAMP Reference Manual 46


Uniform
Spreadsheet Function: UniformValue
Parameters: xmin : minimum value of the returned random variable
xmax : maximum value of the returned random variable

Example: = UNIFORMVALUE( 0, 1 )

{ }
1
x min x x max
Density: f  x = x max −x min
0 otherwise

{ }
0 xx min
x− x min
Distribution: F  x = x min x x max
x max −x min
1 x max x

RiskAMP Reference Manual 47


Weibull
Spreadsheet Function: WeibullValue
Parameters: a : location parameter a, any real number
b : scale parameter b > 0
c : shape parameter c > 0

Example: = WEIBULLVALUE( 0, 1, 2 )

{   [  ] }
c c
c x−a x−a
exp − xa
Density: f  x = x−a b b
0 otherwise

{ [  ] }
c
x−a
F  x = 1−exp − x a
Distribution: b
0 otherwise

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Discrete Distributions

Discrete distributions return some discrete value – true or false, 0 or 1, or some other specific values –
based on given probabilities and other inputs to the function.

The discrete distribution functions contained in the add-in follow. Refer to the description of each
distribution for more information on the add-in function and the returned value.

BernoulliValue
BinomialValue
GeometricValue
HypergeometricValue
NegativeBinomialValue
PascalValue
PoissonValue

RiskAMP Reference Manual 49


Bernoulli
A Bernoulli trial represents a single of a probabilistic event. The trial will either succeed (TRUE) or
fail (FALSE), with the probability of success given by p.

Spreadsheet Function: BernoulliValue


this function is also available as ProbabilityValue
Parameters: p : probability of returning TRUE, where 0 ≤ p ≤ 1

Returns: TRUE or FALSE

Example: = BERNOULLIVALUE( 0.5 )

Density: {
f  k = 1− p
p
if
if
0
1 }
Distribution: {
F k = 1− p
p
if
if
0k 1
k1 }

RiskAMP Reference Manual 50


Binomial
The binomial distribution represents the probability of k successes in n independent Bernoulli trials,
where the probability of success in each trial is given by p.

Spreadsheet Function: BinomialValue


Parameters: p : probability of event p, where 0 ≤ p ≤ 1
n : number of independent trials n > 0

Returns: the number of successful trials

Example: = BINOMIALVALUE( 0.25, 10 )

{  nk p 1− p }
k n−k
k ∈ { 0,1,⋯, n }
Density: f  k =
0 otherwise

{ }
k

Distribution: F k = ∑
i=0
 ni p 1− p 
i n−i
0k n

1 k n
where the binomial coefficient n =
i
n!
i!n−i! 

RiskAMP Reference Manual 51


Geometric
The geometric distribution represents the probability of obtaining k failures before obtaining a
successful result in n independent Bernoulli trial, where the probability of success in each trial is given
by p.

Spreadsheet Function: GeometricValue


Parameters: p : probability of event p, where 0 < p < 1

Returns: the number of failures before a successful trial

Example: = GEOMETRICVALUE( 0.25 )

Density: f  k = { p1− pk


0
k ∈ {0,1,⋯}
otherwise }
Distribution: F k = { 1−1− pk1
0
k 0
otherwise }

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Hypergeometric
The hypergeometric distribution represents the probability of k successes in n Bernoulli trials drawn
without replacement (dependent) from a population N containing K successes.

Spreadsheet Function: HypergeometricValue


Parameters: n : number of trials
N : population size
K : successes contained in the population

Returns: the number of successes

Example: = HYPERGEOMETRICVALUE( 6, 10, 4 )

Density: f  k =
 k  n − k 
K N −K

 Nn 
k  k!n−k ! is the binomial coefficient
where n ≡
n!

Distribution: F k = { 1−1− pk1


0
k 0
otherwise }

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Negative Binomial
The negative binomial distribution represents the probability of k failures before the sth successful trial
in a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials, where the probability of success in each trial is given by
p.

Spreadsheet Function: NegativeBinomialValue


Parameters: p : probability of event p, where 0 ≤ p ≤ 1
s : number of successes s, where s ≥ 1

Returns: the number of failures

Example: = NEGATIVEBINOMIALVALUE( 0.25, 5 )

{ }
 sk −1! s
p 1− pk k ∈ {0,1,⋯, n }
Density: f  k = k ! s−1!
0 otherwise

{ }
k
 si−1! k
Distribution: F k = ∑ i! s−1!
p 1− pi x 0
i=0
0 otherwise

RiskAMP Reference Manual 54


Pascal
The pascal distribution represents the probability of having to perform k trials in order to achieve s
successes in a sequence of n independent Bernoulli trials, where the probability of success in each trial
is given by p.

Spreadsheet Function: PascalValue


Parameters: p : probability of event p, where 0 ≤ p ≤ 1
s : number of successes s, where s ≥ 1

Returns: the number of trials

Example: = PASCALVALUE( 0.5, 3 )

{ }
 k −1!
p s 1− pk− s k ∈ { s , s1,⋯}
Density: f  k = k −s! s−1!
0 otherwise

{ }
k
k −1!
Distribution: F k = ∑ i−s! s−1! p s 1− pi− s ks
i=1
0 otherwise

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Poisson
The Poisson distribution represents the probability of k events occurring where the probability of the
event occurring is small, and the rate of occurrence (μ) is constant.

Spreadsheet Function: PoissonValue


Parameters: μ (mu) : rate of occurrence μ > 0

Returns: the number of events

Example: = POISSONVALUE( 2 )

Density: f  k =
{ k −
k!
0
e k ∈ { 0,1,⋯}
otherwise
}
{ }
k
i −
F k = ∑
e k 0
Distribution: i=0 i!
0 otherwise

RiskAMP Reference Manual 56

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