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THE (6 STEPS) OPERATIONAL

ESTIMATE

By
Col FO OKAE-YEBOAH

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OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE

STEP 6

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OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE
Step 1 - Understand the Operating
What has gone Environment
wrong? What might stop me
Step 2 - Understand the Problem putting it right?
Step 2a – Step 2b –
What have I got to Mission Analysis Evaluate Objects
and Factors
do to put it right?
Step 2c – Commander’s Confirmation
Do I understand all
of that??
Step 3 – Formulate Potential CoAs
What are the Provide Guidance for COA
options open to Development
me?
Step 4 - Develop and Validate CoAs Do all the options
CoA 1 CoA 2 CoA 3 work?

What are the pro’s Step 5 - Evaluate CoAs

and cons of each
Step 6 Which one is best
option?
Commander’s Decision and which one
should I select?
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 OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE – STEP 6
Command & Staff Responsibilities
Step 1 - Understand the Operating
Environment

Step 2 - Understand the Problem

Step 2a – Step 2b –
Mission Analysis Evaluate Objects
and Factors

Step 2c – Commander’s Analysis and

Guidance

Step 3 – Formulate Potential CoAs

Provide Guidance for COA
Development

Step 4 - Develop and Validate CoAs

CoA 1 CoA 2 CoA 3

Step 5 - Evaluate CoAs

Step 6
Command
Commander’s Decision
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OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE – STEP 6

• JTFC decides upon a particular COA or combination of viable
COAs
• JTFC confirms proposed way ahead with military strategic
commander
• Timing JTFC’s decision may be linked to political and cross-
governmental deliberations
• Selected COA is translated into a concise statement of the JTFC’s
decision
• Statement incl the what, why, when, where, who and how

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OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE – STEP 6

• JTFC writes his own CONOPS
• May be disseminated immediately as WngO
• Staff focus on production of supporting detail for the requisite
directives, plans and orders
• Translation of selected COA into actionable orders is dependent
on scale and complexity of the campaign
• Initial campaign plan may be immediately actionable
• In more complex situations, a JTFC may direct that a specific
OPLAN be developed to action the first phase of his campaign

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OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE – STEP 6

• COAs pertinent to the detailed planning of a particular
campaign phase should incl:
§ A clear description of the period/stage/phase within the wider
campaign that is being considered
§ An outline mission and accompanying purpose for the joint
task force for this period/stage/phase
§ CONOPS supported by effects schematics, to include: intent,
supporting effects, scheme of manoeuvre, main effort and key
themes and messages

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OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE – STEP 6

§ Component mission statements of task and purpose

§ Risks
§ Further information that relate to command and control
structures, task organisation, supported and supporting
relationships, deployment, time and space, logistics concepts
and operational-level reserves

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OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE – STEP 6

Input:
Step 1 - Understand the Operating
Environment • Results of Step 5 COA comparison
• Staff recommendation
Step 2 - Understand the Problem
• Risk highlighted
Step 2a – Step 2b –
Mission Analysis Evaluate Objects
and Factors Method:
Step 2c – Commander’s Analysis and • JFC Selects COA
Guidance
• Writes/confirms CONOPs and Msn
Statements for CCs(If applicable)
Step 3 – Formulate Potential CoAs
• Or directs initial phase of plan to be
Provide Guidance for COA developed into OPORD 1
Development

Step 4 - Develop and Validate CoAs

Other Considerations:
CoA 1 CoA 2 CoA 3 • COS/Staff develop plan into
Campaign Directive/OPLAN/
Step 5 - Evaluate CoAs OPORD
• Prepare O Gp
Step 6
• Manage Back-briefs, rehearsals etc
Commander’s Decision

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OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE – STEP 6

COMMANDER’S DECISION
I have selected COA 1 as the most effective COA to achieve the
Military Operational Endstate. It supports my 2-Up Commander’s
intent of giving the diplomatic LOO every chance of success to
coerce GALLO from its intervention in KORGAN. It is more likely
to achieve longer term success within the strategic context. I assess
that it will pave the way for a more compliant environment during
the ‘Stabilisation Phase’ of the operation – both within
GUNDABAD and across the IC. It is also less likely to prompt
military responses from DUNMARK and the ASSC. It may present
a greater short term risk to strategic and operational initiative if
GALLO manage to secure the ports of BUDE and
PERRANPORTH _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

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OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE – STEP 6

CONFIRMED CAMPAIGN END-STATE AND MISSION
Campaign End-state
• Interim (6 months). KORGAN territorial integrity restored and
ARGENTIAN JTF primed to hand over responsibility for security
and post DRO reconstruction to indigenous and FoF

• Long term. KORGAN territorial integrity restored leading to

enduring stability where reconstruction and relief activities are
unimpeded. KORGAN and GALLO are militarily balanced and
neither aspires to a united GUNDABAD. KORGAN is not
threatened militarily by external parties and its oil industry is
secured and enabled

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OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE – STEP 6

MISSION
• Provide support to the DFED-led disaster relief operation and
assist the GoK in re-establishing the territorial integrity of
KORGAN with ……………………

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OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE – STEP 6

CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS
• Intent
• Scheme of Maneouvre
• Main Effort
• Narrative. ARGENTIA believes in a peaceful, stable and prosperous
GUNDABAD, where KORGAN and GALLO are able to thrive and exploit their
own natural resources. GALLO’s illegal and naked aggression is in clear breach
of GALLO’s International obligations and ARGENTIA will counter it by all
means available. ARGENTIA stands by KORGAN in her hour of need and will
act to alleviate human suffering and provide the support necessary to ensure that
her territorial borders are restored and free of interference from GALLO.
ARGENTIA’s vision of a stable GUNDABAD is one where neither KORGAN
nor GALLO holds expansionist ambitions and both countries co-exist in peace
and prosperity.

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OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE – STEP 6

DEVELOPMENT OF THE PLAN

• Component Missions

§ JTFMCC. The MCC is to:

§ JTFLCC

§ JTFACC

§ JTFLogCC

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OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE – STEP 6

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OPERATIONAL ESTIMATE – STEP 6

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CAMPAIGN PLANNING PRODUCTS

Campaign Directive - J5

OPLAN – J5 Level of Detail

FRAGO OPORD – J3

1
FID

JDP 5 - 00 Annex 2J-2M

1. Force Instructions Document

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END OF STEP 6

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QUESTIONS?

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EX SAIDIA JIRANI
Step 6 – Hands-on
• Comd’s Decision Brief
§ Selected COA
§ Writes/cfms Endstate, Msn, CONOPs and msn statements
for CCs (campaign and effects schematics)
• COS/Staff
§ Add details
§ Other products

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