UN GLOBAL CRISIS RESPONSE GROUP
A world of debt
A growing burden to global prosperity
July 2023
Global public debt has reached
colossal levels
92 000 000 000 000
USD
Global public debt 92
USD trillion
Global increase since 2000
public debt 5-fold
17
USD trillion GDP 3-fold
2002 2012 2022
Source: UN Global Crisis Response Group calculations, based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2023).
Note: Figures represent nominal values in current USD. Public debt refers to general government domestic and external debt
throughout the document. General government consists of central, state and local governments and the social security
funds controlled by these units. 1
Almost 30% of global public debt
is now owed by developing countries
Public debt by country in 2022 (USD billion)
Developed countries Developing countries
United States of America
Mexico 30 985
792
Japan
1 1061
China
13 955
France
3 092
Australia
947
Italy Spain
2 911 Germany 1 568
India 2 711
2 815
United Kingdom
3 152
Brazil
1 653
Source: UN Global Crisis Response Group calculations, based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2023). 2
However, public debt is growing faster in
the developing world
Index: outstanding public debt in 2010 = 100
350
Developing countries
300
250
Developing countries
200 excl. China
150 Developed countries
100
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Source: UN Global Crisis Response Group calculations, based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2023). 3
A growing number of countries
are facing high levels of debt
Number of developing countries with public debt exceeding 60% of GDP
70
60
50
40
30
Commodity
super cycle
20
and debt relief First year of the
under HIPC-MDRI COVID-19 pandemic
10
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: UN Global Crisis Response Group calculations, based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2023).
Note: Highly Indebted Poor Countries - Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (HIPC-MDRI). 4
Inequality
is embedded
in the international
financial architecture
5
The debt burden
is heavier for the Global South due to:
EXTERNAL HIGH AND RISING
DEBTS BORROWING COSTS
CASCADING
CRISES
COVID-19 Climate Cost of
pandemic change living crisis
6
Countries are more prone to external shocks
due to borrowing in foreign currencies
Median values for developing countries
140
120
External public debt
112% as share of exports
100
80
71%
70
Total public debt
60 60%
as share of GDP
50
35%
40
30
External public debt
29%
19% as share of GDP
20
10
External public debt service
3.9% 7.4% as share of exports
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: UN Global Crisis Response Group calculations, based on World Bank International Debt Report 2022.
Note: Total public debt refers to General Government debt. External public debt refers to external Public and
Publicly Guaranteed (PPG) debt. 7
A note from history
Half of developing countries are
allocating at least 7.4% of their export
revenues to external public debt service.
For comparison, the 1953 London
Agreement on Germany’s war debt limited
the amount of export revenues that could
be spent on external debt servicing
(public and private) to 5% to avoid
undermining the recovery.
8
Developing countries rely more on private
creditors now, making credit more expensive
and debt restructuring more complex
Private creditors Bilateral creditors Multilateral creditors
DEVELOPING ASIA LATIN AMERICA
COUNTRIES AFRICA AND OCEANIA AND THE CARIBBEAN
24% 22% 22%
26%
30% 32% 31%
37%
4%
14% 15% 7%
22%
23%
30%
33%
74%
67%
62% 63%
47% 44%
39%
30%
2010 2021 2010 2021 2010 2021 2010 2021
Source: UN Global Crisis Response Group calculations, based on World Bank International Debt Report 2022.
Note: External Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG) debt. 9
Developing countries carry
much less debt than developed ones,
but pay much more for it
Bond yields (2022-2023)
11.6
6.5 7.7
3.1
1.5
Germany USA Asia Latin America Africa
and and the
Oceania Caribbean
Source: UN Global Crisis Response Group calculations, based on Refinitiv.
Note: Illustrative comparison of the average JPM EMBI Global Diversified USD bond yields per region with the 10 year
bond yields of Germany and the United States from January 2022 to May 2023. 10
Some countries face
impossible choices:
servicing debt serving people
vs
11
More countries use more public revenues
for interest payments
Number of developing countries with net interest payments
exceeding 10% of revenues
60
54
50
44
40
29
30
20
10
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: UN Global Crisis Response Group calculations, based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2023).
Note: Net interest payments of the general government refer to the total amount of domestic and external interest
expenses incurred from loans and other forms of borrowing, minus any interest income received. 12
Developing countries use more resources
to pay interest on their public debt
Net interest payments of developing countries
7 6.9%
Relative to
6 revenues
5
4.2%
2
1.5%
0.9%
1
Relative to
GDP
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Source: UN Global Crisis Response Group calculations, based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2023).
Note: Median shares across developing countries. 13
Interest payments are growing faster
than other public expenditures
Nominal change (%) of public expenditure categories in developing countries
between 2010-2012 and 2019-2021
60.4%
54.7%
40.8% 41.1%
Education Investment Health Interest
Source: UN Global Crisis Response Group calculations, based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2023),
IMF Investment and capital stock database and World Bank World Development Indicators database. 14
And people pay the price
15
Some regions spend more on servicing
debt than serving their people
Public expenditure on net interest, education, health and investment as a share
of GDP (%) (2019-2021)
Education Health Investment Interest
10
0
Africa Asia and Oceania Asia and Oceania Latin America
(exc. China) and the Caribbean
Source: UN Global Crisis Response Group calculations, based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2023),
IMF Investment and capital stock database and World Bank World Development Indicators database. 16
Interest payments outweigh development
spending in more countries
Number of developing countries spending more public resources on net
interest than on education, investment or health
Education Investment Health
9
13
19
21
36
2010-2012 2019-2021
45
Source: UN Global Crisis Response Group calculations, based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2023),
IMF Investment and capital stock database and World Bank World Development Indicators database. 17
3.3 billion people
live in countries that spend more on interest
than on education or health
1.9
BILLION
3.3
BILLION
Source: UN Global Crisis Response Group calculations, based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2023), IMF Investment
and capital stock database and World Bank World Development Indicators database. Figures for 2019-2021. 18
The United Nations
has a road map of
multilateral actions
to address the global debt storm
and achieve sustainable development
19
The United Nations call for reform of the
International Financial Architecture and the
SDG stimulus package outline a way forward:
1 Make the system more inclusive, improving the real and effective
participation of developing countries in the governance of the
international financial architecture.
2 Tackling the high cost of debt and rising risk of debt distress
and create a debt workout mechanism to address the slow
progress of the G20 Common Framework for Debt Treatment due
to creditor coordination challenges and the lack of automatic debt
service suspension clauses to participating countries.
United Nations
Secretary-General’s
SDG Stimulus
to Deliver
Provide greater liquidity in times of crisis expanding
Agenda 2030
3
FEBRUARY 2023
contingency finance, so that countries are not forced into debt
as a last resort, including through the strengthened use of Special
Drawing Rights, a temporary suspension of IMF surcharges, and
increased quota-access windows Our Common Agenda
Policy Brief 6
Reforms to the
International
to IMF emergency financing.
Financial
Architecture
MAY 2023
4 More and better finance, massively scaling up affordable
long-term financing. The transformation and expansion of
Multilateral Development Banks to support long term sustainable
development and scaling up private resources. More concessional
finance; fulfilling aid and climate finance commitments.
20
Inequality
is embedded
in the international
financial architecture.
This must change.
This document has been prepared by the UN Global Crisis Response Group and the five
UN Regional Commissions, ECA, ECE, ECLAC, ESCAP and ESCWA.
