MT.

PLEASANT HIGH SCHOOL

A Level Geography - Geostatistics Seminar
Enhancing student performance in A Level Geography
(6037/3).
Assessment Specialist: Mr. N Karimazondo -0774114549
Basic Probablity
PROBABILITY
- Probability is the likelihood that a given event happens.
- It is a chance associated with the occurrence of a particular event.
- An event is a collection of one or more of the outcomes of the experiment.
- The probability of any event lies between 0 and 1.
- A probability of 0 indicates that the event can never happen.
- For instance, judging from the latitudinal location of Zimbabwe, the probability of
experiencing a temperate depression is virtually 0.
- Values close to zero indicate very slim chances that the event occurs.
- For instance, there might be a 0.002 chance of a hailstorm being experienced in June in
Zimbabwe.
- A probability of 0.5 indicates that the the event has equal chances of happening or not
happening.
- For instance, in a population where the ratio of males to females is 1:1, the probability
of choosing a female respondent in a survey is 0.5.
Basic Probability
- The probability of any event E can be stated as:

Number of possible outcomes

P(E) = ---------------------------------------
Possibility Space
- The possibility space, or sample space, is the total number of possible outcomes.
Consider a fieldwork survey which involves selecting respondents at random from a
group of 100 male and 150 female college students. The probability of choosing a male
student is:

Number of male Students

P(Male) = ----------------------------------
Total number of Students

100
= ---------
250

= 0,4
This can also be expressed as or 40%
From this example, there are only two possible outcomes: either the person chosen is
male or female
The sample space in this case is defined as:
S = {total number of students at the college}

Mutually Exclusive Events

- These are events that cannot occur together.
- Either event A may happen or B may happen, but not both A and B may happen at the
same time.
- For mutually exclusive events A and B,

P(A and B) = 0

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Independent Events
- Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of
the occurrence of the other; the way to check whether or not the events are independent
is to check to see if the events can occur at the same time.
- For independent events A and B,

P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

Worked Example
1. In a simple model, a meteorological department claims that the probability of rainy
weather on any day in December is 0.6
a) Using this model, calculate the probability that:
i) it rains on two consecutive days. [2]
ii) In a 3 day period, it rains only once. [2]
iii) No rain is received in a given 4 day Period. [2]
iv) Estimate the expected number of rainy days in December [2]
b) Comment on the validity of this model. [3]
Let R be the event that "it rains on a given day" and R' (pronounced R complement) be
the event that it does not rain on any given day.
Now, from the information given:

P(R) = 0.6
Note that the probability that it does not rain on any given day is obtained by subtracting
the probability that it rains from 1.
P(R') = 1 - P(R)
= 0.4

i)it rains on two consecutive days. [2]

P(R and R) = P(R) x P(R)
= 0.6 x 0.6
= 0.36
ii) Ina 3 day period, it rains only once. [2]
It is important to come up with all the possible outcomes in the 3 day period. Think of all
possible outcomes in a three day period that give one rainy day out of 3 days.
These are:
1. Rains on the first day, and doesn‟t on the second and third => RR'R'
2. Rains on the second day, and doesn't rain on the first and third day =>
R'RR'
3. It doesn't rain on the first two days, but rains on the third.
In all these combinations, there is one thing in common: it rains on exactly one out of 3
days!

Now, we need to find the probability of each combination.

P(RR'R') = 0.6 x 0.4 x 0.4 = 0.096
P(R'RR') = 0.4 x 0.6 x 0.4 = 0.096
P(R'R'R) = 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 = 0.096
Now add the three probabilities to obtain the overall probability that it rains on only one
of tree days.
P(Rains on 1 Day) = 0.096 + 0.096 + 0.096
= 0.288
iii) No rain is received in a given 4 day Period. [2]
The probability that it does not rain on any given day is 0.4.

The probability that it does not rain in 4 consecutive days is therefore

P(R'R'R'R') = 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4
= 0.0256
iii) Estimate the expected number of rainy days in December [2]
To obtain the "Expectation," multiply the probability by the number of days.
Expected Number of Rainy Days = 31 x 0.6
= 18.6
=19 days
b) Comment on the validity of this model. [3]
The model is invalid as the probability of it raining on any given day, to some extent,
depends on the weather conditions of the previous day. If it rains on any given day, the
probability of it raining the next day is higher. The probability of raining on any given
day must thus not be treated as independent of each other.
Tree Diagrams
An event in a probability tree is represented by 2 or more branches from a starting point
depending on the possible outcomes. More branches are added to represent other events
resulting from subsequent trials. The branches are labelled with the name of events and
their probability. The total probability at any given branch should add up to 1.

Example
A bag contains 7 blue balls and 6 red balls. If a woman selected three balls without
replacement, find the probability that:

(i) the three balls are of the same colour

(ii) at least two are of the same colour.
(iii) at most two are of the same colour.
(i) P(RRR) or P(BBB) = [P(R) × P(R) × P(R)] + [P(B) × P(B) × P(B)]
= [ 6/13 × 5/12 × 4/11 ] + [ 7/13 × 6/12 × 5/11]
= 10 + 35
143 286
= 0.1923
(ii) P(RRB) or P(RBR) or P(BRR) or P(RRR) or P(BBR) or P(BRB) or P(RBB) or
P(BBB)
= [ 6/13 × 5/12 × 7/11 ] + [ 6/13 × 7/12 × 5/11] + [ 7/13 × 6/12 × 5/11] + [ 6/13 × 5/12 ×
4/11 ] + [ 7/13 × 6/12 × 6/11] + [ 7/13 × 6/12 ×6/11] + [ 6/13 × 7/12 × 6/11 ] + [ 7/13 ×
6/12 × 5/11]
=1
(iii) P(RRB) or P(RBR) or P(BRR) or P(BBR) or P(BRB) or P(RBB)
= [ 6/13 × 5/12 × 7/11 ] + [ 6/13 × 7/12 × 5/11] + [ 7/13 × 6/12 × 5/11] + [ 7/13 × 6/12 ×
6/11] + [ 7/13 × 6/12 ×6/11] + [ 6/13 × 7/12 × 6/11 ]
= 0.8077