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A view of the high Norwegian Arctic in 2015. There is alarming evidence that
important tipping points, leading to irreversible changes in major ecosystems
and the planetary climate system, may already have been reached or passed.
UN Photo/Rick Bajornas
GLOBAL ISSUES
Climate Change
Climate Change is the defining issue of our time and we are at a defining
moment. From shifting weather patterns that threaten food production, to rising
sea levels that increase the risk of catastrophic flooding, the impacts of climate
change are global in scope and unprecedented in scale. Without drastic action
today, adapting to these impacts in the future will be more difficult and costly.
The Human Fingerprint on Greenhouse Gases
Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns.
Such shifts can be natural, due to changes in the sun’s activity or large volcanic
eruptions. But since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of
climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas.
Burning fossil fuels generates greenhouse gas emissions that act like a blanket
wrapped around the Earth, trapping the sun’s heat and raising temperatures.
There are some basic well-established scientific links:
The concentration of GHGs in the earth’s atmosphere is directly linked
to the average global temperature on Earth;
The concentration has been rising steadily, and mean global
temperatures along with it, since the time of the Industrial Revolution;
The most abundant GHG, accounting for about two-thirds of GHGs,
carbon dioxide (CO2), is largely the product of burning fossil fuels.
The new Emissions Gas Report by the UN Environment Programme finds that
there has been progress since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015.
Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, based on policies in place, were projected to
increase by 16 percent at the time of the agreement’s adoption. Today, the
projected increase is 3 per cent. However, predicted 2030 greenhouse gas
emissions still must fall by 28 per cent for the Paris Agreement 2°C pathway and
42 per cent for the 1.5°C pathway.
Climate-driven food and water insecurity is expected to grow
Global warming of 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels has been caused by over a
century of burning fossil fuels and unequal, unsustainable energy and land use.
This has led to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather
events, which have caused dangerous impacts on nature and people worldwide.
Each increment of warming results in rapidly escalating hazards, such as more
intense heatwaves, heavier rainfall, and other weather extremes that increase
risks for human health and ecosystems. Climate-driven food and water
insecurity is expected to increase with increased warming. When these risks
combine with other adverse events, such as pandemics or conflicts, they
become even more difficult to manage.
To close the gap between existing adaptation and what is needed, accelerated
action to adapt to climate change is essential in this decade. Keeping warming
to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels requires deep, rapid, and sustained
greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors. Emissions should be
decreasing by now and will need to be cut by almost half by 2030 if warming is
to be limited to 1.5°C
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment to provide
an objective source of scientific information.
Sixth Assessment Report
According to the Synthesis Report of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, there
are multiple, feasible, and effective options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
and adapt to human-caused climate change, and they are available now. The
IPCC proposes adopting a “climate-resilient development” that involves
integrating measures to adapt to climate change with actions to reduce or avoid
greenhouse gas emissions in ways that provide wider benefits.
For instance, access to clean energy and technologies can improve health,
especially for women and children. Low-carbon electrification, walking, cycling,
and public transport can enhance air quality, improve health, employment
opportunities, and deliver equity. Economic benefits for people’s health from air
quality improvements alone would be roughly the same, or possibly even larger
than the costs of reducing or avoiding emissions.
Climate-resilient development becomes progressively more challenging with
every increment of warming. Therefore, the choices made in the next few
years will play a critical role in deciding the future of our planet and
the generations to come.
To be effective, these choices need to be rooted in our diverse values,
worldviews, and knowledges, including scientific knowledge, Indigenous
Knowledge, and local knowledge. This approach will facilitate climate-resilient
development and allow locally appropriate, socially acceptable solutions.
What we know based on the IPCC reports:
It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere,
ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere,
ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.
The scale of recent changes across the climate system as a whole –
and the present state of many aspects of the climate system – are
unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years.
Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly
vulnerable to climate change.
Vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change differs
substantially among and within regions.
If global warming transiently exceeds 1.5°C in the coming decades or
later, then many human and natural systems will face additional
severe risks, compared to remaining below 1.5°C.
Global Warming of 1.5°C
In October 2018 the IPCC issued a special report on the impacts of global
warming of 1.5°C, finding that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require
rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society. With
clear benefits to people and natural ecosystems, the report found that limiting
global warming to 1.5°C compared to 2°C could go hand in hand with ensuring a
more sustainable and equitable society. While previous estimates focused on
estimating the damage if average temperatures were to rise by 2°C, this report
shows that many of the adverse impacts of climate change will come at the
1.5°C mark.
The report also highlights a number of climate change impacts that could be
avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5ºC compared to 2ºC, or more. For
instance, by 2100, global sea level rise would be 10 cm lower with global
warming of 1.5°C compared with 2°C. The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of
sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5°C,
compared with at least once per decade with 2°C. Coral reefs would decline by
70-90 percent with global warming of 1.5°C, whereas virtually all (> 99 percent)
would be lost with 2ºC.
The report finds that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require “rapid and
far-reaching” transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and
cities. Global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need
to fall by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching ‘net zero’ around
2050. This means that any remaining emissions would need to be balanced by
removing CO2 from the air.
United Nations legal instruments
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
The UN family is at the forefront of the effort to save our planet. In 1992, its
“Earth Summit” produced the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) as a first step in addressing the climate change problem.
Today, it has near-universal membership. The 197 countries that have ratified
the Convention are Parties to the Convention. The ultimate aim of the
Convention is to prevent “dangerous” human interference with the climate
system.
Kyoto Protocol
By 1995, countries launched negotiations to strengthen the global response to
climate change, and, two years later, adopted the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto
Protocol legally binds developed country Parties to emission reduction targets.
The Protocol’s first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012. The
second commitment period began on 1 January 2013 and ended in 2020. There
are now 198 Parties to the Convention and 192 Parties to the Kyoto Protocol
