Conditional Probability - IB Math Summary & Practice
1. Summary
Conditional Probability Summary:
Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred.
It is written as: P(A | B) = P(A AND B) / P(B), where:
- P(A | B) is the probability of A given B
- P(A AND B) is the probability of both A and B occurring
- P(B) is the probability of event B
It is often used in medical testing, quality control, and scenarios with "given that" language.
Example Keywords: "Given that", "If", "Provided that", "Among those who..."
Tips:
- Always identify the "given" part first. That is your denominator.
- Use a probability table or tree diagram if it helps visualize.
2. Practice Questions
Practice Questions (IB-style):
1. A factory has two machines. Machine A produces 60% of the total output, and Machine B produces 40%.
2% of A's items are defective, while 5% of B's items are defective.
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected item is defective?
b. Given that an item is defective, what is the probability it came from Machine B?
2. In a school, 70% of students study French and 30% study Spanish. 10% of French students and 20% of
Spanish students passed a language competition.
a. What is the probability a randomly chosen student passed?
Conditional Probability - IB Math Summary & Practice
b. If a student is known to have passed, what is the probability they studied Spanish?
3. A medical test is used to detect a disease that occurs in 0.5% of the population. The test correctly identifies
98% of infected people and falsely flags 3% of healthy individuals.
a. What is the probability that a randomly chosen person will test positive?
b. Given that a person tested positive, what is the probability they are actually infected?
(Hint: Draw tables or tree diagrams to organize information.)