Capacity Planning Methodology For Success
Capacity Planning Methodology For Success
Performance Professionals
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This paper was originally published in the Proceedings of the Computer Measurement Group’s 1987 International Conference.
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A CAPACITY PLANNING METHODOLOGY THAT IS DESTINED TO SUCCEED
Ruu-Tian Lawrence
First Bank System Information Services, lnc.
ABSTRACT
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This paper was written to share with you how you can successfully establish capacity management function
in your organization. The key issues this paper address are:
To end the paper I wil' show you a recent quarterly capacity plan I developed. Please feel free to adopt
ideas that are of value to you. I hope you will enjoy the success that I have enjoyed.
absolutely essential for planners to accomplish all
1. INTRODUCTION four tasks to ffi6Ke his methodology effective.
This paper was written with the intent of sharing my 2.1 TALKING TO THE RIGHT PEOPLE
experience as a Capacity Planner in two St. Paul
organizations over the past four and one-half years. Good forecasters use good indicators. They search for
I can proudly say that in both situations the capacity strong indicator';. They normally have a good under-
management methodology was implemented with great stand i ng of where they can find good i nf ormati on to
success. base thei r forecilsts on. Good planners need to do the
same thing. We planners are forecasters. We need to
However. success was not obtained without pain. The know where to get accurate and reliable infonmation so
pain I experienced came While learning two valuable efforts spent gathering and validating data can be
lessons. One lesson concerned capacity management minimized.
methodology. The other concerned technical knowledge
and organization savvy that planners need to be I have relied on three primary sources. The first
effective. Both lessons can help you to successfully source is the sy~,tems development staff. These
establish the capacity management function in your managers. analysts. and progranrners are normally the
organization as well. first line interface with users. Because of their
combined knowledge of both business and technology.
It has been a decade since the capacity management they can greatly help in assessing the impact of new
concept was conceived and its importance generally or enhanced computer systems.
recognized. We capacity planners have come a long
way. Nowadays capacity management is a very common The second source I rely on heaVily is corporate
and prevalent discipline which can be found in most planners and marketing staff. They normally possess a
medium and large data centers. This fact is wealth of knowledge of business seasonality. trends.
illustrated by the rapid growth of attendance in customer behavior. product promotions, etc. With
annual Computer Measurement Group national con- their assistance we often can identify and explain
ferences. The capacity management function has patterned usage variations. At times we can even
transformed from an art form to more of a scientific explain odd, unique, and non-recurring behavior.
discipline.
To give you an example: during 1985 for a period of
There are numerous software packages on the market one month, Automatic TellE!r Machine (ATM) transaction
today which claim to help capacity planners do a volume increased by 40%. I was pUZZled by that fact.
convincing job in planning future computing require- After talking with one of the marketers I realized a
ments for their organizations. All these scientific. campaign had been started to encourage customers to
user-friendly, and expensive tools can help planners use Instant Cash :ards by randomly offering cash
to increase the precision of their forecasts if they prizes. This promotion resulted in a 40% increase in
are used appropriately. Higher precision may ulti- ATM transactions <:>n the mainframe. Luckily the main-
mately bolster planners ' credibility. Yet we planners frame was not satJrated and there was no negative
often place too much emphasis on the tools we need impact on the senice level. However. Had I known in
before the capacity management function has been advance of this upcoming promotion, I would have been
soundly established. We fail to recognize that a better prepared to deal with its impact--especially if
sound capacity management methodology is what provides the mainframe had been close to saturation.
the foundation that a planner needs to succeed during
the start-up phase. Attempting to use an expensive The last source of information usually comes from
analytical model without this basic foundation will diligently readin!l internal conrnunications and
result in high capital investment with low return. In following market changes and business related issues,
fact. a good planner can initially establish the such as bills to he decided during legislative
capacity management function with great success with- sessions. etc. Wf' planners need to follolJ clol;;ely all
out any analytical models. the issues which may affect the way our organization
does business.
2. LESSON ONE: THE METHOOOLOGY
In the banking inclustry for example, state reciprocal
A sound capacity planning methodology is no more than banking law allow~ banks to acquire banks in other
talking to the right people. placing accountabilities states that have corresponding reciprocal agreements.
where they belong, forecasting frequently, and taking In 1986 when the law passed in Minnesota, my organiza-
full responsibility for the recommendations. It is tion was suddenly in the position of being able to
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why. I will start by looking at the objectives of
capacity management and the planning process itself. planners accountable for providing information to
capacity management staff and for working with them to
The objective of capacity planning is to assure derive accurate predictions. However, in reality this
adequate computing resources to meet future demands in theory may not work. These groups are usually managed
a cost-effective way. The ultimate goal is to maintain by a different dbision head whose responsibility is
the level of service which is agreed on or acceptable primarily outward focused. Their data processing
to the users. Service level objectives consist of expertise is often low. They normally do not share the
availability, responsiveness, and reliability. Provid- same concern for data processing service levels.
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- 497 •
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capacity planner on their payroll? I believe we 4. EXAMPLE: A RECENT CAPACITY PLAN
planners need to be responsible for the capacity
planning methodology. We need to market our ideas and I would like to end this paper by showing a recent
prove the value of our existence. We need to make Quarterly capaclty plan which I developed. The plan
ourselves understood by our management. We need to has four basic sections. They are assumptions. volume
focus on issues that our management is concerned projections. forecasts. and recommendations. Please
about. We need to present our cases in ways that feel free to adopt any ideas you feel would be
provide management all the information it needs to make valuable. However. try to be creative. Do develop a
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decisions. We need to make management recognize our format that best suits your management's preferences.
contribution to the organization.
4.1 CAPACITY PLAN FIRST QUARTER 1987
In addition to our upward responsibility. we are FIRST 8ANK SYSTEM INFORMATION SERVICES, INC.
responsible for working with people who provide us JANUARY 1987
information that feeds into the plan. We are respon-
sible for assisting them in forecasting better. More • The plan is developed to accommodate daily peak
importantly we are responsible for giving them feed- demand.
back. We need to convince them that the effort in
seeking better forecasts is for the benefit of the • 85% of utilization is used as processor (CPU)
organization. We need to convince them that. we are threshold. Higher usage may cause performance
there to help them look smart in their users' eyes. We degradation. therefore. decrease our ability to
are there to build a winning team. maintain the established service objectives.
3. LESSON TWO: TECHNICAL KNOWLEDGE AND ORGANIZA- • Real storage ;tnd virtual storage are also [Link]
TIONAL SAVVY into consideration.
A good planner reQulres good people skills. CAPACITY PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS
Understanding bits and bytes is not enough. Unlike
performance analysts capacity planners have more
l RETAIL
exposure to the world at large. We cannot work in an
ivory tower alone and expect to be successful. • Lobby Automation
Implementation will continue. The Metro banks
For example. the problem I stated earlier about not will totally be implemented by July 1987. Five
being able to rely on outside departments for informa- region banks will be implemented by December 1987.
tion can be overcome by a planner's organizational
savvy. He can use informal influence to gather this Add Credit Scoring feature. Will test through
information from corporate planners and marketers. April 1987. Will implement in May 1987. May take
Such individuals often cannot express the details of in credit bUrl!aUS' credit rating in December 1981.
their service requirements in terms that are directly
usable in the planning process. By providing them with To allow Otts transaction be posted to CICS
historical trends of their application work volumes, d1rectly. Test through Aprl1 1987. Will
the planner can equip them with the knowledge they need implement in April 1987.
to quantify the impact of potential projects.
Large Currency Reporting system will be
Of course. a planner needs to be technically pro- implemented through February 1987. Will be in
ficient. He needs to understand operating systems. He full production in March 1987.
needs to be fully aware of the integration of all
applications. The level of application integration • CIS Expansion
often determines the portability of certain applica- Incorporated (;redit Card information in June
t ions from one rna i nf rame to another. In add iti on to 198T. Trust 1nformation in July 1987. Insurance
knowledge of operating systems. mainframes. and information in October 1987. Discount Brokerage
applications. the planner also needs to be trained in in October 1987. Mortgage in October 1987.
statistics. This knowledge will allow the planner to
better understand the data. It will also enable him to
better present the information. especially when the
• Fi rst Milwaukoe
Will convert all retail systems by March 1987.
confidence of projection is not high due to future
uncertainties. • Due From Reconciliation
Initial implementation includes Fed. Reserve
On top of all the above knowledge. the planner needs to accounts for FBMP and F8SP. Will implement online
draw all the information around him as input to the by March 1987. Accounts for other banks (ex:
planning process. He needs to have a very good under- Chase Manhattan) in June 19S7. Will include
standing of the business he is in. The understanding regions in July 198T.
of business equips him to better communicate with his
users. The planner also needs to be politically • l099 Window Tran
sensitive. He needs to understand the issues that 1099 window transaction volume peak at year end.
relate to the financial well being of his organiza-
t;on. Recommendations he makes should be technically
sound and make good business sense. Additionally he
needs to be able to present his recommendation per-
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1099 Year End Correction System ~loat Pricing System
• Possibly modify the existing Burroughs system to
Automate 1099 year-end-correction process by
January 19B7. provide SI mO'''e flexibility in controlling float
pricing. Expecting a decision by May 1987.
• Collection Management System Implementation in September 1987.
Will implement Credit Card by January 1987. In
production in February 1987. Routing System
Possibly repl.~ce the regional transmission (X300)
• IL and DOH Deconverslon with RJE jobs. The new system will handle the
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IL and DOH will remain IOMS applications through- input as well as print-back capabilities. POD is
out December 1987. completed in January 1987. If approved. will test
through June 1987; and will implement in July 1987.
• First Mortgage
Sales Management System - Retail
Testing the RiSK Management module in the
Encompass system by May 19B7. Implement In June Will develop ,3 system to monitor and track retail
19B7. In production In July 19B7. sales in 1987. This is to support incentive com-
pensation pay for personal bankers. Will imple-
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• Others (Impact NOT assessed) ment in Febru,lry 1987; and in production in March
1987.
Account Reconciliation System
Currently we are evaluating an ARS system from Sales Management System - Small Business
DISC corporation. Expecting to make a decision on Will develop a system to monitor and track small
software package by April 19B7. Testing by May business sales in second quarter 1987. Implemen-
1987, and implementation in June 1987. tation in third Quarter 1987; and in production in
third Quarter 1987. Mainly a batch system.
APEX System
Two alternatives are now being considered. They WHOLESALE
are IBM and Tandem softwares. Will complete soft-
ware recommendation by January 1987. Will com- • AIM System
plete hardware recofllllendation by March 1987. If 50 administration assistants are using online AIM
it is approved, then will test In third Quarter system. This usage will continue to grow. Will
1981; and be in production in fourth Quarter 1987. start CIS Monetary balances project in March
19B7. Will test through October 1987. Implement
Check Processing System in November 1987.
We are currently evaluating the whole check pro-
cessing system with SI. The result of the project Plan to modify the system to reduce online
mayor may not impact IBM mainframes. Regardless transactions. Test through June 1987. Implement
the result. we do not expect to see any implemen- In July 1987.
tation plan until the fourth Quarter 1987 at the
earliest. Will develop a product infonmation sub-system.
Will complete specification by January 1981. Test
Saving/CDls/Retirement System through May 1987. Implement first phase in June
A study will be conducted to detenmine what all 1987; and implement second phase in October 1987.
needs to be done to improve the savings, CO's, and This is mainly a batch system.
retirement systems.
• Trust System
Checking Plus Test the security movement package by December
Enhance to handle larger retail loans in second 1987. Will implement in 19BB.
quarter of 1987. This may enable the move of
retail loans from ClIl to Checking Plus systems. • Stock transfer
The system will leave us by March 1981_
CIF Files Consolidating/Marketing Analysis System
Develop a consolidated FBS customers' file. This • Due From Reccnciliation
will allow personal bankers easy accesses to a Develop a Due Rec system for Commercial loans.
complete customer business profile. Along with Complete POD by January 1987. Will test through
this effort. we are currently evaluating softwares ~arch 19B7; and will implement In April 19B7. It
which will facilitate cleaning and standardizing will be a batch system.
data elements process of CIF files. Providing
household1ng feature will be part of the project. • Others (Impact NOT Assessed)
We are developing the POD now. Will test consol-
idation in March 1987. Implement the consoli- AIM System
dation system in May 1987. Automatic clean-up by Enhance AIM ~ystem to be the wholesale CIS system.
July 1987. Manual clean-up will be part of the
routine process; and householding feature is AIM Jurdor Project
expected to be implemented in July 1987. Will eliminate the information stored in the
system for Small Business for Minneapolis and
Unistatements St. Paul. W~ll test in April 1987. lmplement in
Possibly add more types of accounts and more rela- June 19B1.
tionships to the system. For example: adding
credit card accounts to unistatements. This wi 11 Convnercial Loan II
be a batch system. Target to implement in the Automation of foreign exposure risk analysis may
thi rd quarter 1987. happen. If 0, will incorporate IBG. MIDAS
information nto eLlI database. In the second
phase. will ncorporate DDA, COls information into
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Network Serv1 ces End User Computing
HCF facility will be installed in first quarter lssco Plan - This is a project management
19B7. This facility will allow FBS Mortgage facility. FE:SSI will be the initial user of this
system 36's to communicate with each other. HCF product. However, how the use of this product
along with reverse passthru will also allow HP proliferates is an unknown at this point of time.
devices to communicate with the IBM mainframes.
Office Auto~tion
Advanced Function Printing The possibility of implementing any office auto-
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AFP is available for use. Complete implementation mation facility is unknown currently.
plan by January 1987. Will implement in IS by
March 1987. Implement production print throughout ONLINE TRANSACTION VOlUHE FORECASTS
1987. (Peak Hour Only)
System Software New Application Growth 12186 Addition by 12/87
Enhancements to system software are required to
improve availability, support new hardware or Lobby Automation 3.500 5.000
provide software for new and larger applications. AIF Expansion 5.200
Resources required for this support are included First Milwaukee 3,000
in the forecast. Collection 900 1.000
FBS Mortgage 750 100
• Others (Impact Not Assessed) Due From Reconciliation 100
Gil Regional 2.100 500
Implementation of Single System Image is not Gil Hetro 1,200 500
quantified. 1099 Correction 50
DIVESTITURE Existing Application Growth
• 500 .
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• Recovery
" This is the space required to do recovery in case
of hardware malfunction.
• Expansion
This is the space required on each logical units
for potential file expansion and fragmentation.
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~"L
This is the result of the replacement of IBM 3350
;: l' disk drives "/ith IBM 3380 disk drives project.
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•••
M5D DI5TRIIltJTION
P[CEt1~[Q, nih
IN GIGA8YTES
4.2 DASD PLAN FIRST QUARTER 1987
FIRST 8ANK SYSTEM INFORMATION SERVICES, INC. 'ft
e
JANUARY 1987
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• Production tU
This 1s the disk space used by production systems ID
which are non-IDMS.
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This 1s the disk space used by application
programmers for developing or maintaining systems.
• System
This is the disk space used by Operating System,
System Network facilities, program products
installed in the systems, and some operational
related files.
. 502 •
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• Collection Management 1/B7
• Lobby Automation Support 1/87
• System/Database 2/87
• Billing File Expansion
Human Resources System
2/87
• 2/B7
• Personal Trust File Expansion 3/81
• Operation Print Project 3/B7
• System/Database 3/B7
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