GLOBAL MARKETS RESEARCH

Research Monitor (May)

6 May 2025

Key Themes
1. Tariff de-escalation? Global risk sentiments steadied slightly after US
president Trump hinted he is willing to negotiate with China to bring tariffs
down to around 50-60% and he will not fire Fed chair Powell but still wants
him to cut interest rates. The S&P500 has paused after registering its longest
rally in two decades, notwithstanding the better-than-expected services
ISM (51.6). The FOMC is likely to stay on pause mode at the 7 May meeting,
but futures market is still pricing in a cumulative 75bps by year-end. Note
the IMF has slashed its 2025 and 2026 global growth forecasts to 2.8% and
3.0%, with major economies like the US and Eurozone seeing cuts.

2. Asian markets are still bracing for the tariff shockwave with post-April 2nd
dampened sentiments. The April manufacturing PMIs have contracted for
South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Japan,
with the exception of India and the Philippines. Despite the ongoing 90-day
reciprocal tariff suspension period, the spectre of hardening US-China trade
tensions and potential sectoral tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals
etc weigh on near-term business and consumer confidence. 1Q25 GDP
growth have so far surprised on the upside for China, Taiwan and Hong
Kong, but disappointed for Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Indonesia.

3. Despite a resilient performance in the first quarter—reflected in China’s

macro surprise index reaching its highest level since May 2023, following the
post-COVID reopening—the adverse effects of the trade war have started
to surface in both sentiment and data. China’s official Manufacturing
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 49.0 in April, down 1.5 points
from the previous month, falling back into contraction territory and marking
the lowest level since December 2023. In terms of trade war, China’s
Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a high-profile bilingual video in late April
titled “Never Kneel Down,” warning against capitulating to external
pressure. However, markets appeared to discount the hardline rhetoric,
instead responding positively to a more conciliatory statement from China’s
Ministry of Commerce regarding China’s evaluation of the talks with the US.
The renminbi, along with broader Asian currencies, rallied sharply despite a
still-firm U.S. dollar index. Market players will watch for any sign of
negotiation between US and China in May.

4. The OCBC SME Index edged lower to 49.9 in 1Q25 versus 50.7 in 4Q24. This
marks the first contraction after three consecutive quarters of expansion.
The OCBC SME Index is likely to ease further as SMEs grapple with new
global trade norms and lower business confidence.

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Asset Class Views

House View Trading Views
G-10 FX: Taking stock, DXY underperformance this year has been driven by a confluence of factors Technical
– from tariff uncertainty to the erosion of US exceptionalism, and more recently, reports that bounce; bias to
Trump considered removing Fed Chair Powell. Although the threat was walked back, such remarks sell rallies.
risk undermining investor confidence, politicising the monetary policy, and casted doubt on the Resistance at
USD’s status as a safe haven. The recent mild rebound in the DXY reflected signs of a de-escalation 100.80, 102.60.
in tariff rhetoric. Hopes of a US-China dialogue (though it remains early to concur) and signs of Support at
progress on a trade deal (likely with India first) have also helped to stabilise sentiments while safe 98.90, 97.50.
havens proxies unwound. Barring the short-term bounce in USD, we expect USD to trade weaker
as easing US exceptionalism and USD diversification flows take centre-stage in the immediate term
while the Fed cut cycle potentially comes into focus in 2H 2025. The markets are increasingly
focused on how Trump’s policies (especially tariffs) are hurting the US economy, US assets and
USD. USD may also trade softer against AxJs and antipodeans if broad USD weakness permeates
and tariff impact on global growth (outside US) is more manageable than feared. That said, risks
can quickly turn and procyclical FX, including AxJ may weaken if tariff shocks hurt global growth
significantly.
Buy dips
EUR traded lower after hitting a multi-year high of 1.1570. The prospects of a US-China dialogue preferred.
added to the tariff de-escalation thematic. This is turn led to the unwinding of stretched USD shorts Support at
vs EUR. To add, several ECB officials also turned more dovish. ECB’s Lane said that there is no 1.1280, 1.1030.
reason to say that a 25bp move is always the default and he warned that EUR’s strength is weighing Resistance at
on the region’s economic recovery via disinflation. Rehn said that he sees downside risks to the 1.1420, 1.1570.
region’s inflation outlook and that the value of EUR is important in assessing policy. Separately,
ECB is considering changing its monetary policy strategy to enable more nimble responses to price
shocks as the global environment becomes increasingly volatile. This will be discussed at an
informal retreat on 6-7 May in Portugal. Barring short-term position adjustments, we remain
FX

constructive on EUR’s outlook. In particular, signs of portfolio flows and reserve diversification may
continue to favour alternative reserve currencies such as the EUR.
Sell rallies.
USDJPY rebounded off multi-month lows after Bessent-Kato meeting saw no mention of FX levels Resistance at
while BoJ Governor Ueda’s comments post-BoJ meeting was interpreted as less haste to tighten 146.1, 147.0.
monetary policy for now. Ueda said it remains extremely uncertain how countries will develop Support at
their trade policies and how such policies will affect overseas economic and price trends. He also 143.0, 141.6.
expected the price trend improvement to stall temporarily. BoJ also downgraded its assessment
on growth and inflation, and further put risk to both growth and inflation to the downside (vs.
upside for inflation in the previous assessment). That said, Ueda did say that BoJ will raise the
policy rate when policymakers become more confident in the outlook. He also added that the delay
in the price target timing does not mean that there will be a delay in hikes. Overall, we still expect
BoJ to get back to normalising interest rates at some point. Even as BoJ holds, we believe the Fed
could lower rates at some point in 2Q 2025. The Fed-BoJ policy divergence should continue to
underpin broader direction of travel for USDJPY to the downside.
Consolidate.
Support at
USDSGD continued to trade near recent lows as markets re-assess the tariff developments and a
1.2920, 1.2850.
softer USD. Hopes of a US-China dialogue (although it may still be early days) and signs of progress
Resistance at
on possible trade deals (likely US with India first) have reinforced the de-escalation thematic. Safe
1.3150, 1.32
haven trades unwound while AxJ FX enjoyed a significant lift last week (more so last Fri likely aided
levels.
by thin market liquidity as well). USDCNH fell to near 6-month low of 7.21 at one point while
USDSGD broke below 1.30. Further traction may be possible if de-escalation momentum carries on
and broad USD softness permeates. That said, given a relatively outsized move last week, we do
not rule out the near-term risk of a slowdown in the pace of USDSGD selloff as markets reassess
trade talks optimism.

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 GLOBAL MARKETS RESEARCH

House View Trading Views

USTs and USD rates movements have been volatile USD rates: 10Y real yield has retraced from the recent
as a few key themes have been taking turns to high to just below 2% level; this still appears somewhat
dominate the market. USTs were sold off in early high compared to the growth outlook, but the term
April on liquidation needs and fears of more rapid premium is at play. The term premium need to go down
structural shifts away from USD assets. USTs have to push long end yields lower. Near-term range for 10Y ↓
since stabilised, as market refocus on the theme of UST is seen at 4.06-4.34% with 4.20% the next key
inflation versus growth impact of tariffs. US data resistance for the bond. Further downside room for
have come in mostly on the soft side, but the latest short-end rates may be more limited, as market pricing
payroll and labour market report outcome was of rate cuts is already aggressive; with signs of de-
seen as “strong”. Market pared back near-term escalation of trade tensions, the bar for market to add
rate cut expectation (with the chance of a 25bp cut much further to rate cuts expectations may be a bit
by June FOMC meeting seen at 38%), but still high.
priced a total of 82bps of cuts before year end.
SGD rates outperformed USD rates over the past
Our base-case remains for three 25bp Fed funds month. Short end SGD rates showed further decoupling
rate cuts this year. We are of the view that triggers from USD rates, falling further when USD rates rose. 1Y
for rate cuts will likely need to come from the SGD-USD OIS spread fell below -200bps. On the SORA
labour market/growth front; continued cooling in OIS curve, the 2Y and 3Y rates continue to stay as the
the labour market will justify rates at less lowest points. The 2Y and 3Y SGD OIS at around/below →
restrictive levels as long as there is no strong 1.8% level reflects expectations for an extended period
rebound in inflation. We have pencilled in one of flush liquidity condition and for the floating rate
25bp Fed funds rate cut in each of Q2, Q3 and Q4 SORA to move lower from here sustainably – this
2025. We see two risks to our base-case, in terms outlook is highly uncertain. SGS bills and bonds, on the
of the quantum (to the upside should US growth other hand, may benefit from safe-haven flows,
deteriorate more than expected) and of timing. potentially outperforming swap rates.
There may be delays in rate cuts if the inflation
Rates

impact of tariff is reflected in the data sooner than IndoGBs outperformed USTs over the past month as
the growth impact when labour market indicators sentiment towards the domestic bonds recovered. We
only show a gradual cooling. wrote last month that “10Y IndoGB-UST yield spread
widened to 300bps, which may provide some support
ECB cut key policy rates by 25bps in April as to the domestic bonds”. The spread has since narrowed →
expected. The statement and Lagarde’s Q&A back to 260bps. Q2 gross issuance target has been set
sounded dovish, with Lagarde appearing open to at IDR190trn, which is consistent with individual auction
cutting rates to below neutral levels. The sizes of IDR24-26trn for conventional bonds and of
Statement cited a few factors for the downward IDR10-12trn for sukuk. The conventional bond auction
pressure on inflation, namely falling global energy on 22 April was upsized to IDR28trn, rendering funding
prices, appreciation of the euro, and a re-routing of well on track.
exports into the euro area from countries with
overcapacity – i.e. seeing impact of tariffs as net MGS rallied by 7-17bps over the past month,
disinflationary for the Eurozone. We expect an outperforming USTs. Within the domestic markets,
additional 50bps of cuts, i.e. a terminal rate of MGS outperformed MYR IRS; the direction of
1.75%. EUR OIS last priced 58bps of cuts before bond/swap moves was in line with our view. At current
year-end which looks roughly fair. levels, there may still be some room for further MGS
outperformance against swaps at longer tenor, but such ↓
Bank of Japan kept rate on hold at the 1 May room may be more limited at the 3Y tenors especially if
meeting as expected and sounded much less market adds to rate cut expectation. Market pricing of
hawkish. On top of the downgraded assessment on rate cuts remained subdued, and part of the pricing may
growth and inflation, the central bank put risk to be attributable to the somewhat elevated 3M KLIBOR
both growth and inflation to the downside versus compared to OPR.
upside for inflation at the last assessment. JPY OIS
further pared back rate hike expectation, to CNY rates. CGB yields and repo-IRS were lower over the
around 10bps of hike before year end. The past month, as the growth outlook turns more subdued
economic downgrade was mostly due to the highly amid trade tensions. PBoC net injected CNY500bn of ↓
fluid trade development. In our view, if the outlook MLF in the month but did not inject extra liquidity via
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 GLOBAL MARKETS RESEARCH

turns for the better, e.g. if there is further de- outright reverse repos. The first batch of special CGBs
escalation on the trade front with some auctions were well received, marking a good start for
concessions in tariff rates and other trade barriers upcoming supply in the rest of the year. Still, with
under trade deals, then rate hikes can be put back prospect for both fiscal and monetary support, the CGB
onto the table. Market is not convinced at this curve may exhibit a mild steepening bias on a multi-
juncture and is unlikely to go ahead of the curve to month horizon.
price in hikes.
*Arrows refer to expectations for general direction of rates/yields

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 GLOBAL MARKETS RESEARCH

House View Trading Views

Asiadollar credit spreads widened in April. As of 30 SCISP 2.66% ‘32s (SGD bullet)
April 2025, Asia IG spreads widened ~13bps m/m • Sembcorp Industries Ltd (“SCI”), listed in Singapore, ↑
to 94bps, while Asia HY spreads widened ~116bps has a market cap of SGD11.7bn as of 05 May 2025 and
m/m to 551bps. The widening was large relative to total assets of SGD18.2bn as of 31 December 2024. SCI’s
prior months, following tariff announcements on business segments include Gas and Related Services,
“Liberation Day”. Moody’s Ratings revised its 2025 Renewables, Integrated Urban Solutions,
default forecast up, with speculative grade default Decarbonisation Solutions and Others.
rate expected to reach 3.1% by year-end (from • Reported net profit from continuing operations
2.5%). increased by 16% y/y to SGD495mn in 2H2024. This
Given uncertainties, deal-making was held back. In includes SGD41mn of income which SCI received in
the primary markets, Asia ex-Japan G3 bond 2H2024 (2H2023: SGD11mn) from the deferred
issuances totalled just USD10.9bn in April, which is payment note (“DPN”) in relation to the Sembcorp
Energy India Limited transfer (“SEIL”, owns and operates
a significant fall relative to USD34.6bn in March.
coal fired power plants, emissions recorded in Scope 3).
That said, the worst appears to have passed. • SCI’s reported gross debt-to-EBITDA was 5.0x in 2024,
Investors and issuers have been returning to the higher than the 4.1x in 2023 although company guided
market progressively from mid-April. Chinese that future income generation from investments
entities were amongst the first who returned to already made is expected to reduce gross debt-to-
the market, with local government financing EBITDA.
vehicles dominating issuances. Japanese issuers • The yield to maturity is attractive at 3.20%.
were also active.
SGD primary markets meanwhile slowed OUECT 4.1% ‘27s (SGD bullet)
• OUE Real Estate Investment Trust (“OUEREIT”)’s
Credit

significantly with only SGD140mn issued (March

2025: SGD3.9bn). Meanwhile, the SGD Credit overall results are weaker modestly y/y in 1Q2025 due ↑
Universe posting a return of +0.56% m/m as primarily to lower contributions from Hospitality
spreads have widened. This tracks our call to be segment amidst high base effect in 1Q2024 (including
Overweight the SGD credit market. As expressed Taylor Swift’s concerts), offset by improved Commercial
in our Revised Monthly Credit View in April, we see segment. Business risks are expected to improve
the SGD Credit Market as a beneficiary from capital following the disposal of Lippo Plaza in Shanghai. We
reallocation while defaults in the SGD market are foresee a stable outlook in 2025, underpinned by the
expected to remain low. premium asset portfolio wholly in Singapore.
• Excluding disposal impacts of Lippo Plaza Shanghai
A rising tide did not lift all boats though. While mid (sold in December 2024), 1Q2025 revenue and NPI fell
(+1.08% m/m) and longer tenor (+1.24% m/m) 3.9% and 4.1% y/y respectively. The weaker
papers outperformed due to fall in rates, AT1s (- performance was due mainly to lower contributions
0.24% m/m) and non-financial corporate from the hospitality segment due to a weaker trading
perpetuals (-0.20% m/m) fell, in-line with our call environment compared to 1Q2024.
then to Underweight AT1s and perpetuals with • As of 31 March 2025, reported T12M interest
tight reset spreads. coverage ratio fell q/q to 2.1x (end-2024: 2.2x) while
We continue to like the SGD credit market as it is aggregate leverage ratio rose q/q to 40.6% (end-2024:
expected to provide total positive returns. We also 39.9%). Should the proceeds from disposal of Lippo
reiterate our preference for higher yielding bonds Plaza Shanghai be used fully for debt repayment, the
in the high grades space. Meanwhile, we are now aggregate leverage ratio would improve to ~37% per
Neutral on AT1s and corporate perpetuals, as management.
value has emerged following their • This issue looks decent with an ask yield to maturity
underperformance. of 3.8%.

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 GLOBAL MARKETS RESEARCH

Macroeconomic Views
House View Key Themes
Given elevated trade tensions and policy The impact of tariffs on consumer expectations was significant.
uncertainties, we had lowered our forecast for 1Q25 GDP growth contacted 0.3% QoQ annualized on an import
the US economy this year to 1.3% from 1.7%. This surge. The University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer
is more bearish than the IMF’s revised growth Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 in April, from 57.0 in March (a
forecast of 1.8% (previously 2.7%), and down four-month consecutive decline). The April nonfarm payrolls rose
from 2024’s 2.8% growth. Our house view 177k, better than the 138k market consensus forecast, but still
United States

remains for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a lower than the revised March reading of 228k. The
cumulative 75 bps later this year. unemployment rate was steady at 4.2%. While the
manufacturing ISM slumped further from 49.0 in March to 48.7
in April, the services ISM unexpectedly improved from 50.8 to
51.6. On the inflation front, March core CPI eased to 2.8% YoY
(0.1% MoM) while the core PCE also decelerated to 2.6% YoY (0%
MoM). While the Fed is likely to keep policy settings unchanged
at the 7 May FOMC, the futures market is pricing in around three
cuts of 25bps for the rest of this year, likely starting from July.
Tariff policies remain a key source of The EU suspended retaliatory tariffs on the US goods imports on
uncertainties, despite the recent pause. 10 April, after the US paused reciprocal tariff rates. The 25%
Although headline inflation eased to 2.2% in tariffs on US steel, aluminium, and cars imports from the EU
March, tariff uncertainties may complicate the remain in place. European Commission President, Ursula von der
ECB’s effort to reach the 2% medium-term Leyen, stated the EU ‘wanted to give negotiations a chance’,
inflation rate target. Nonetheless, we expect the although she asserted that countermeasures would continue if
Euro Area

ECB to focus on downside growth risks and cut an agreement was not reached. The ECB cut the interest rate for
another cumulative 50bps this year with a the seventh time in a year on 17 April, citing that trade
terminal rate of 1.75%. uncertainty would likely weaken growth by subduing investment,
consumption, and exports. Indeed, the latest Eurozone
Consumer Confidence Index fell to -16.7 in April, the worst since
the late 2022. Although the ECB expects tariffs to increase the
inflation by fifty basis points, weaker growth prospects is likely to
mean the ECB will still cut rates.
Our forecast for Japan’s 2025 GDP growth is The US paused a 24% tariff rate on Japanese exports, although a
1.0%, but the tariff uncertainties continue to universal 10% rate, alongside a 25% on automobiles, remains.
pose a risk on growth. The BOJ kept policy The US-Japan negotiation is currently ongoing and Ryosei
unchanged at the recent meeting but has Akazawa, the Japanese trade envoy, has expressed his
Japan

downgraded their growth assessment. We confidence in a ‘win-win’ result. Nevertheless, a consensus

expect the BOJ to hike by another 50 bps this between the US and Japan remains elusive. BOJ Governor Kazuo
year. Ueda asserted the central bank will continue its rate hike stance
if the economic recovery continues, although he also admitted
BOJ will monitor risks posed by the trade war. Core CPI in March
was 3.2% YoY, an acceleration from 2.9 YoY in February.
The official 2025 growth forecast has been cut The March manufacturing output rose by 5.8% YoY, missing
from 1-3% to 0-2%. The IMF slashed its 2025 GDP expectations and implying the advance 1Q25 GDP growth is likely
growth forecast to 2% in April, from 2.5% in its to be revised down to 3.6% YoY. Meanwhile, the unemployment
Singapore

previous estimate. Our house forecast is 1.6% for rate rose from 1.9% in December 2024 to 2.1% in March 2025.
2025 growth, but a technical recession is likely. The Ministry of Manpower’s survey showed that there was a
MAS has also reduced its 2025 headline and core decline in hiring (46% to 41%) and wage expectations (32% to
inflation forecasts to 0.5-1.5%. Our 2025 22%) among firms in March compared to December. Singapore,
headline and core inflation forecasts are 1.2% while not being subjected to reciprocal tariff yet, is still facing a
respectively. 10% universal tariff rate by the US.

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House View Key Themes

The economy expanded by 5.4% YoY in Q1, The stronger-than-expected performance in Q1 can be attributed
holding steady from Q4 2024. Despite the strong to four main drivers. The first two—external trade and high-tech
Q1 data, headwinds are gathering. The manufacturing—were largely anticipated, while the latter two
intensification of US-China trade tensions, emerged as positive surprises as domestic consumption support
particularly the reciprocal tariff hikes taking policies began to bear fruit and infrastructure investment played
effect in April, are expected to weigh on China’s a stronger-than-expected stabilizing role amid rising global trade
exports and overall sentiment. We estimate that headwinds. There is growing evidence that China’s fiscal policy is
trade decoupling alone could shave off 1.0 to 1.5 gaining traction. In the first quarter of 2024, general government
percentage points from full-year GDP growth. expenditure rose 4.2% YoY while revenue contracted by 1.1%
That said, if China can step up fiscal stimulus— YoY, resulting in a fiscal deficit of CNY 1.26 trillion—the highest
particularly in the form of additional level for the same period in recent years. This reflects a
infrastructure spending and consumption deliberate front-loading of fiscal execution in line with the policy
support—it may help offset some of the drag. guidance of “acting early where possible, rather than too late.”
China

Taking into account both the Q1 upside surprise On April 16, the Ministry of Finance announced a CNY 1.3 trillion
and the downside risk from escalating tariffs, we ultra-long-term special government bond issuance plan—both
maintain our full-year GDP growth forecast for larger in scale and earlier in timeline than last year—with
China at 4.6%, with a cautious bias depending on issuance set to begin in April. This signals that fiscal efforts will
the scale and timing of further policy support. continue to be front-loaded, with expectations of stronger
issuance momentum, heightened spending intensity, and faster
disbursement in the months ahead. Against this backdrop,
market participants are also watching for the possibility of a
reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut—potentially as early as
May—which could also open the door for policy rate reductions
in Q2. A coordinated easing window is likely to open in Q2, as
fiscal and monetary authorities seek to reinforce growth
momentum through stronger policy synergy. We still expect
China to lower RRR by 100bps and LPR by 40bps in 2025.
Our full-year GDP growth forecast for 2025 is Local equity plunged fell alongside the global market selloff,
revised downward to 1.9%, accounting for the while HKD rates also fell sharply since the announcement of US’
more challenging external environment and US- reciprocal tariffs and the subsequent retaliation from China.
China tit-for-tat tariff war. Separately, the Meanwhile, Hong Kong is starting to feel the pain from widening
unemployment and inflation rates are pitched at trade war. Merchandise exports to Asia as a whole grew by 25.0%
3.1% and 2.0% YoY respectively for 2025. Hong YoY in February, yet that to US fell by 18.5% YoY. In sequential
Kong’s trade performance is expected to weaken terms, merchandise exports declined by 15.7% in February, to
Hong Kong

in the coming months, due to the high base effect the lowest level in one year. In view of sharp asset market
and prospect of tariff implementation. correction and US-China tit-for-tat tariff war, we revise
Meanwhile, retail sales are likely to remain downward Hong Kong’s full year growth projection from 2.2% to
sluggish. Separately, we expect the local banks to 1.9%. Separately, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA)
slash the prime rate further by 25 basis points in kept its base rate unchanged at 4.75%, following Fed’s cautious
the second quarter this year, following Fed’s hold decision last month. Concurrently, major Hong Kong banks
decision to resume rate cuts. This will likely bring also left their HKD prime rates unchanged. The HKMA flagged
the HKD prime rate cut cycle to an end, after that interest rates in Hong Kong might still remain at relatively
returning to the long-term level before the 2022 high levels for some time, as HKD interbank rates generally track
Fed rate hike cycle. the US dollar counterparts.
Weaker growth is in the offing. 1Q25 GDP The focus remains on trade negotiations with the US given the
contracted by 0.1% YoY and 0.2% QoQ sa, economy’s exposure to trade risks. Export growth declined by
increasing the risk of a technical recession in 0.7% YoY in April on a working-day adjusted basis, as tariff-
South Korea

2025. Meanwhile, headline inflation was broadly related uncertainty began to materialize. Specifically, auto
stable at 2.1% YoY in April. Bank of Korea Deputy exports contracted by 3.8% YoY even as semiconductor exports
Governor stated that headline inflation will likely remained strong. BoK left its policy rate unchanged at its April,
hover around the 2% level on weaker demand citing concerns over inflation risks stemming from a weaker KRW.
and lower oil prices. We expect the BoK to cut However, Governor Rhee emphasized that all six board members
rates by a cumulative 50bps this year, bringing are now open to a rate cut within the next three months, pointing
the benchmark rate down to 2.25%. to elevated downside risks to the growth outlook.
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 GLOBAL MARKETS RESEARCH

House View Key Themes

We revise downward Macau’s economic growth Macau’s gross gaming revenue increased by 6.8% YoY to
forecast to 4.0% in 2025, from the previous MOP19.74 billion in February, despite fewer visitor arrivals
estimate of 5%, taking into account the more during the month (at 3.15 million). In periods ahead, gaming
challenging external environment and the sector recovery is expected slow, as the base normalised.
slowing gaming sector recovery. Nonetheless, Separately, Macau’s housing market showed little sign of
Macau’s economy remains in solid footing this bottoming out nor stabilizing, after four consecutive years of
year, amid sustained recovery in tourism sector downturn. In sequential terms, the residential property price
Macau

and non-gaming investments. Separately, the index fell by 1.3% in Nov24-Jan25, after rebounding by 0.1% in
unemployment and inflation rates are pitched at Oct24-Dec24. Compared to the recent high, the residential
1.7% and 0.8% YoY respectively for 2025. property price index fell cumulatively by 24.6%. Headwinds, such
Macau’s gross total gaming revenue is expected as uneven economic recovery and stiff competition from
to grow in a mid-single digit figure, supported by neighbouring city Zhuhai, continued to dampen housing market
the premium mass segment. demand. We tip the decline of housing prices at 4% YoY for 2025,
following a decline of 11.7% YoY in 2024, with further prime rate
cuts and mainland’s increased housing support measures
offsetting part of the headwinds.
Bank Indonesia (BI) held its policy rate at 5.75% Negotiations between Indonesia and the United States to avert
in April, striking a more dovish tone than in the planned 32% reciprocal tariffs are ongoing. Coordinating
March and lowering its 2025 GDP forecast to Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto recently noted
slightly below the midpoint of the 4.7–5.5% that discussions have covered a broad range of issues, including
range, partly due to weaker global growth. We energy supply, market access, and technology cooperation.
Indonesia

believe clearer signs of a sharper domestic Indonesia has proposed increasing imports from the US by up to
slowdown could prompt BI to begin easing, likely USD19bn, including USD10bn in energy products, to help narrow
by early 2H25, if not sooner. We expect a total of the US trade deficit, which stood at ~USD18bn with Indonesia in
50bps in rate cuts for the remainder of 2025, 2024. On the data front, 1Q25 GDP growth slowed to 4.9% YoY
though the timing will depend on rupiah stability versus 5.0% in 4Q24 led by weaker investment spending. BI
and incoming growth data. In the interim, BI is stated that its 23 April meeting that it is looking for room to cut
expected to rely on macroprudential tools to rates. Continued gains in IDR versus USD, if sustained, will allow
support growth. BI the opportunity to cut by 25bp at its 21 May meeting.
The risks to our 2025 GDP growth forecast of Investment, Trade and Industry (Miti) Tengku Zafrul Aziz met with
4.3% are to the downside and depend on the US officials including Howard Lutnick and Jamieson Greer. Miti is
imposition of semiconductor tariffs. We estimate focused on reducing the trade deficit with the US, addressing
at ~46% of US imports from Malaysia are exempt non-tariff barriers, strengthening technological safeguards, and
from tariff for now. Significant frontloading of exploring a potential bilateral trade agreement. None of these
exports to the US in 1H25 has the potential to solutions are ‘quick fix’ and will need time to negotiate and
Malaysia

unwind sharply in 2H25, weighing on growth. We finalise. This brings into the question what is achievable for
expect counter cyclical fiscal policies to be reducing reciprocal tariffs for Malaysia. Meanwhile, we see the
introduced in 2025, albeit in a more targeted rising likelihood that the government will delay RON95
manner for tariff affected industries. We expect rationalisation given the drop in global oil prices and the likely
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to lower its policy preference not to rock the boat on domestic policies given the
rate by a cumulative 50bps in 2026; it could be heightened external uncertainties. The government postponed
brought forward if growth deteriorates rapidly in the expansion of SST to 1 June from 1 May. Concomitantly, there
2H25. is a risk that the fiscal deficit target of 3.8% of GDP maybe at risk
of marginal slippage.

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 GLOBAL MARKETS RESEARCH

House View Key Themes

We maintained our 2025 GDP growth forecast at Our tracking estimates suggests that growth will pick up to 6.1%
5.9% YoY, up from 5.7% in 2024. This reflects our YoY in 1Q25 versus 5.3% in 4Q24. The drivers of growth are
expectations of a limited impact from the US expected to come from the demand side, including household
trade policy. The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariff consumption, government expenditure and investment
will provide some breathing ground for 1H25 spending. Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) Secretary Ma.
Philippines

growth. On inflation, we expect average headline Cristine Roque and her team has met with their US counterparts
CPI of 3.0% YoY in 2025, broadly consistent with to negotiate the 17% reciprocal tariff rate imposed by the Trump
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)’s annual administration. The teams is focused on lowering the tariff rate
headline inflation 2-4%. With inflationary by offering to increase the import volume of US agricultural
pressures expected to be contained, this bodes products. Meanwhile, the BSP cut its policy rate by 25bp at its 10
well for the BSP to continue its monetary policy April meeting. In tandem with subdued inflation, this will provide
easing cycle. To that end, we add in an additional a positive boost to economic growth amid rising uncertainties in
25bp rate cut for the rest of 2025, bringing the the global economy. The government’s official growth forecast
policy rate to 5.25%. remains at 6-8% for 2025 and 2026.
Our full-year 2025 GDP growth forecast stands at Bilateral negotiations between Thailand and the US were put on
2.0% YoY, down from 2.8%. This accounts for the hold to review issues raised during negotiations. Several factors
more challenging external environment ahead. that were potentially behind the postponement include, the
We believe a sharper slowdown will take place in decision to not purchase a new fleet of military aircrafts from the
2H25 following the 90-day tariff pause that was US, and the ongoing criminal investigations on American citizens
announced by the Trump administration on 10 over lese majeste charges. Notwithstanding, Thailand has offered
Thailand

April. On inflation, headline inflation is expected to increase US imports for products such as corn, LNG, and
to average at 1.6% YoY in 2025, up from 0.4% in ethane. The Thai government has also proposed stricter
2024. Nevertheless, we see increasing downside enforcement for goods exports. Meanwhile, the BoT cut its policy
risks to our inflation forecast due to lower oil rate by 25bp at its 30 April meeting “to be consistent with the
prices and government’s policies to alleviate worsening economic outlook, to cope with the increased
cost-of-living pressures. On monetary policy, downside risks, and to align financial conditions with the
there is still room for monetary policy easing changing economic and inflation outlook.” Our tracking
down the road, bringing the policy rate to 1.50% estimates suggests that growth will pick up to 3.5% YoY in 1Q25
by end-2025. versus 3.2% in 4Q24.
GDP growth eased to 6.9% YoY in 1Q25 from Vietnam has intensified its efforts to address the US proposed
7.6% in 4Q24, and we expect momentum to slow 46% reciprocal tariffs on Vietnamese exports. The government
further, bringing full-year growth down to 5.0% established a Government Negotiation Delegation on US trade
in 2025 from 7.1% in 2024. The slowdown reflects issues, led by Trade Minister Nguyen Hong Dien, to develop
Vietnam

weakening external support, particularly due to strategies and lead bilateral discussions. Formal negotiations
the US tariff announcement, with the US commenced with a phone call between Trade Minister Nguyen
accounting for ~30% of Vietnam’s exports. The Hong Dien and the US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer,
impact is expected to spill over into investment where both parties agreed to pursue swift progress toward
and consumption. We maintain our view that the balanced trade. Vietnam is part of six countries reportedly
State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) will cut its policy rate prioritised for negotiations with the US. The first round of
by a cumulative 50bps this year. negotiations with the US are slated for 7 May 2025.
Most ASEAN economies have initiated Counter-cyclical policies will likely be adopted to mitigate against
negotiations with the US to bring down reciprocal downside risks to growth. We expect fiscal policies will be the
tariff rates. Vietnam was an early mover frontline mechanism – targeted cash handouts, industry specific
considering ~30% of its exports are directed to tax relief and breaks can help cushion against the shock from
the US but still has not reached any concrete tariffs. For monetary policy, the situation is less straightforward.
ASEAN-5

agreement with the US. Our view is that Higher tariffs are a supply side shock, and unless second round
negotiations will not be straightforward, and the growth or inflation impacts materialise, immediate monetary
terms and conditions may not even be fully policy action may not materialise. That said, BoT’s rate cut on 30
disclosed. The ASEAN economies can offer to buy April underscores the potential for more proactive monetary
more US products, reduce non-tariff barriers, policy depending on the approach of individual central banks. We
increase domestic market exposure to the US forecast additional rates cuts this year; we expect BNM to cut in
and/or remove tariffs on US imports. 1H26.

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 GLOBAL MARKETS RESEARCH

Growth & Inflation Forecast

GDP Inflation
(% YoY)
2024 2025F 2026F 2024 2025F 2026F
United States 2.8 1.3 1.9 3.0 2.4 2.2
Euro Area 0.9 0.9 1.3 2.4 2.0 2.0
China 5.0 4.6 4.4 0.2 1.5 2.0
Hong Kong 2.5 1.9 2.3 1.8 2.0 2.1
Macau 8.8 4.0 3.0 1.0 0.8 0.8
Taiwan 4.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.9
Indonesia 5.0 4.7 4.8 2.3 2.0 2.7
Malaysia 5.1 4.3 4.3 1.8 2.7 1.8
Philippines 5.7 5.9 5.9 3.2 2.5 2.5
Singapore 4.3 1.6 2.5 2.4 1.2 1.4
Thailand 2.5 2.0 2.0 0.4 0.9 2.0
Vietnam 7.1 5.0 5.0 3.6 4.0 4.0
Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Research (Latest Forecast Update: 6 May 2025)

Rates Forecast
USD Interest Rates Q225 Q325 Q425 Q126
FFTR upper 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50
SOFR 4.05 3.84 3.59 3.34
3M SOFR OIS 4.05 3.90 3.70 3.50
6M SOFR OIS 3.95 3.80 3.70 3.50
1Y SOFR OIS 3.75 3.60 3.55 3.50
2Y SOFR OIS 3.45 3.40 3.40 3.50
5Y SOFR OIS 3.40 3.35 3.45 3.50
10Y SOFR OIS 3.60 3.45 3.55 3.55
15Y SOFR OIS 3.75 3.60 3.60 3.60
20Y SOFR OIS 3.75 3.60 3.60 3.60
30Y SOFR OIS 3.75 3.60 3.60 3.65
SGD Interest Rates Q225 Q325 Q425 Q126
SORA 2.35 2.35 2.30 2.30
3M compounded SORA 2.33 2.36 2.33 2.31
3M SGD OIS 2.15 2.20 2.20 2.20
6M SGD OIS 2.10 2.20 2.20 2.20
1Y SGD OIS 2.00 2.05 2.15 2.20
2Y SGD OIS 1.95 2.10 2.20 2.30
3Y SGD OIS 1.95 2.10 2.20 2.30
5Y SGD OIS 2.00 2.05 2.20 2.35
10Y SGD OIS 2.30 2.30 2.35 2.35
15Y SGD OIS 2.35 2.40 2.40 2.40
20Y SGD OIS 2.35 2.40 2.40 2.40

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 GLOBAL MARKETS RESEARCH

MYR Interest Rates Q225 Q325 Q425 Q126

OPR 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.75
1M MYR KLIBOR 3.26 3.26 3.25 3.00
3M MYR KLIBOR 3.64 3.60 3.57 3.30
6M MYR KLIBOR 3.70 3.68 3.65 3.35
1Y MYR IRS 3.45 3.35 3.35 3.10
2Y MYR IRS 3.30 3.25 3.25 3.00
3Y MYR IRS 3.35 3.25 3.25 3.00
5Y MYR IRS 3.35 3.25 3.25 3.05
10Y MYR IRS 3.50 3.45 3.40 3.25
HKD Interest Rates Q225 Q325 Q425 Q126
1M HKD HIBOR 3.70 3.50 3.30 3.20
3M HKD HIBOR 3.75 3.55 3.40 3.35
6M HKD IRS 3.65 3.50 3.35 3.30
1Y HKD IRS 3.30 3.30 3.35 3.35
2Y HKD IRS 3.00 3.10 3.20 3.30
5Y HKD IRS 3.10 3.20 3.20 3.25
10Y HKD IRS 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.35
UST yields Q225 Q325 Q425 Q126
2Y UST 3.70 3.55 3.50 3.50
5Y UST 3.80 3.75 3.70 3.65
10Y UST 4.15 4.00 3.95 3.95
30Y UST 4.60 4.45 4.45 4.45
SGS yields Q225 Q325 Q425 Q126
2Y SGS 2.25 2.25 2.30 2.30
5Y SGS 2.25 2.25 2.35 2.35
10Y SGS 2.55 2.50 2.45 2.45
15Y SGS 2.65 2.60 2.55 2.55
20Y SGS 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.60
30Y SGS 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.70
MGS yields Q225 Q325 Q425 Q126
3Y MGS 3.30 3.25 3.20 3.10
5Y MGS 3.40 3.35 3.30 3.20
10Y MGS 3.65 3.60 3.55 3.45
IndoGB yields Q225 Q325 Q425 Q126
2Y IndoGB 6.15 6.00 6.00 6.00
5Y IndoGB 6.60 6.50 6.40 6.30
10Y IndoGB 6.80 6.70 6.60 6.50
Source: OCBC Research (Latest Forecast Update: 6 May 2025)

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 GLOBAL MARKETS RESEARCH

FX Forecast
Currency Pair Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Jun-26
USD-JPY 142.00 141.00 139.00 139.00 138.00
EUR-USD 1.1300 1.1400 1.1500 1.1550 1.1600
GBP-USD 1.3300 1.3450 1.3500 1.3500 1.3550
AUD-USD 0.6400 0.6500 0.6600 0.6650 0.6650
NZD-USD 0.5950 0.6000 0.6050 0.6100 0.6150
USD-CAD 1.3850 1.3800 1.3750 1.3750 1.3700
USD-CHF 0.8250 0.8200 0.8150 0.8100 0.8100
USD-SEK 9.95 9.88 9.79 9.57 9.50
DXY 99.86 99.04 98.22 97.86 97.41
USD-SGD 1.2950 1.2920 1.2890 1.2850 1.2820
USD-CNY 7.2400 7.2200 7.2000 7.1800 7.1600
USD-CNH 7.2400 7.2200 7.2000 7.1800 7.1600
USD-THB 33.00 32.80 32.60 32.60 32.50
USD-IDR 16550 16500 16400 16350 16350
USD-MYR 4.2500 4.2400 4.2200 4.2000 4.1800
USD-KRW 1390 1360 1350 1340 1330
USD-TWD 30.40 30.00 29.80 29.60 29.50
USD-HKD 7.7500 7.7500 7.7500 7.7500 7.7500
USD-PHP 55.80 55.60 55.20 55.00 54.80
USD-INR 84.50 84.30 84.20 84.00 83.80
USD-VND 25970 25900 25850 25750 25650
EUR-JPY 160.46 160.74 159.85 160.55 160.08
EUR-GBP 0.8496 0.8476 0.8519 0.8556 0.8561
EUR-CHF 0.9323 0.9348 0.9373 0.9356 0.9396
EUR-AUD 1.7656 1.7538 1.7424 1.7368 1.7444
EUR-SGD 1.4634 1.4729 1.4824 1.4842 1.4871
GBP-SGD 1.7224 1.7377 1.7402 1.7348 1.7371
AUD-SGD 0.8288 0.8398 0.8507 0.8545 0.8525
AUD-NZD 1.0756 1.0833 1.0909 1.0902 1.0813
NZD-SGD 0.7705 0.7752 0.7798 0.7839 0.7884
CHF-SGD 1.5697 1.5756 1.5816 1.5864 1.5827
JPY-SGD 0.9120 0.9163 0.9273 0.9245 0.9290
SGD-MYR 3.2819 3.2817 3.2739 3.2685 3.2605
SGD-CNY 5.5907 5.5882 5.5857 5.5875 5.5850
SGD-IDR 12780 12771 12723 12724 12754
SGD-THB 25.48 25.39 25.29 25.37 25.35
SGD-PHP 43.09 43.03 42.82 42.80 42.75
SGD-VND 20054 20046 20054 20039 20008
SGD-CNH 5.5907 5.5882 5.5857 5.5875 5.5850
SGD-TWD 23.47 23.22 23.12 23.04 23.01
SGD-KRW 1073.36 1052.63 1047.32 1042.80 1037.44
SGD-HKD 5.9846 5.9985 6.0124 6.0311 6.0452
SGD-JPY 109.65 109.13 107.84 108.17 107.64
Gold $/oz 3200 3310 3420 3520 3600
Silver $/oz 32.65 33.78 34.90 37.05 37.89
Source: OCBC Research (Latest Forecast Update: 5 May 2025)
Note: These are not meant to serve as point forecast for the quarter-end but meant as trajectory bias of the currency pair

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 GLOBAL MARKETS RESEARCH

Macroeconomic Calendar
Date Time C Event Period Survey Actual Prior
05/05 12:00 ID GDP YoY 1Q -- 4.87 5.02%
05/05 12:00 ID GDP QoQ 1Q -- -0.98 0.53%
10/05 09:30 CH CPI YoY Apr -- -- -0.10%
13/05 20:30 US CPI MoM Apr -- -- -0.10%
13/05 20:30 US CPI YoY Apr 2.40% -- 2.40%
13/05 20:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Apr -- -- 0.10%
13/05 20:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Apr -- -- 2.80%
15/05 14:00 UK GDP QoQ 1Q P -- -- 0.10%
15/05 14:00 UK GDP YoY 1Q P -- -- 1.50%
15/05 17:00 EC GDP SA QoQ 1Q P -- -- --
15/05 17:00 EC GDP SA YoY 1Q P -- -- --
16/05 07:50 JN GDP SA QoQ 1Q P -- -- 0.60%
16/05 07:50 JN GDP Annualized SA QoQ 1Q P -- -- 2.20%
16/05 16:30 HK GDP YoY 1Q F -- -- --
16/05 16:30 HK GDP SA QoQ 1Q F -- -- --
19/05 17:00 EC CPI YoY Apr F -- -- 2.20%
19/05 17:00 EC CPI MoM Apr F -- -- --
19/05 17:00 EC CPI Core YoY Apr F -- -- --
21/05 14:00 UK CPI YoY Apr -- -- 2.60%
21/05 14:00 UK CPI MoM Apr -- -- 0.30%
21/05 14:00 UK CPI Core YoY Apr -- -- 3.40%
22/05 - 26/05 SI GDP YoY 1Q F -- -- 3.80%
22/05 - 26/05 SI GDP SA QoQ 1Q F -- -- -0.80%
23/05 07:30 JN Natl CPI YoY Apr -- -- 3.60%
23/05 07:30 JN Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Apr -- -- 3.20%
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy
23/05 07:30 JN Apr -- -- 2.90%
YoY
23/05 13:00 SI CPI YoY Apr -- -- 0.90%
23/05 13:00 SI CPI Core YoY Apr -- -- 0.50%
29/05 20:30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 1Q S -- -- --
29/05 20:30 US GDP Price Index 1Q S -- -- --
30/05 07:30 JN Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY May -- -- 3.40%
30/05 07:30 JN Tokyo CPI YoY May -- -- 3.50%
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy
30/05 07:30 JN May -- -- 3.10%
YoY
30/05 20:30 US Core PCE Price Index YoY Apr -- -- --
30/05 20:30 US PCE Price Index YoY Apr -- -- --
30/05 20:30 US Core PCE Price Index MoM Apr -- -- --
30/05 20:30 US PCE Price Index MoM Apr -- -- --
Source: Bloomberg.

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 GLOBAL MARKETS RESEARCH

Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions

Date Time C Event Period Survey Actual Prior
08/05 02:00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) May-07 4.50% -- 4.50%
08/05 02:00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) May-07 4.25% -- 4.25%
08/05 15:00 MA BNM Overnight Policy Rate May-08 -- -- 3.00%
08/05 19:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate May-08 -- -- 4.50%
20/05 09:00 CH 1-Year Loan Prime Rate May-20 -- -- 3.10%
20/05 09:00 CH 5-Year Loan Prime Rate May-20 -- -- 3.60%
20/05 12:30 AU RBA Cash Rate Target May-20 -- -- 4.10%
21/05 15:20 ID BI-Rate May-21 -- -- 5.75%
28/05 10:00 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate May-28 -- -- 3.50%
29/05 SK BOK Base Rate May-29 -- -- 2.75%
Source: Bloomberg

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 GLOBAL MARKETS RESEARCH

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