Applied Energy 113 (2014) 1434–1445

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Adding value with CLEWS – Modelling the energy system and its
interdependencies for Mauritius
M. Welsch a,⇑, S. Hermann a, M. Howells a, H.H. Rogner a,b, C. Young c, I. Ramma d, M. Bazilian a,e,
G. Fischer b, T. Alfstad f, D. Gielen g, D. Le Blanc h, A. Röhrl h, P. Steduto i, A. Müller j
a
KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
b
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
c
Stockholm Environment Institute – US Centre, Davis, USA
d
Agricultural Research & Extension Unit, Quatre Bornes, Mauritius
e
Columbia University, NY, USA
f
International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, Austria
g
International Renewable Energy Agency, Bonn, Germany
h
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, NY, USA
i
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
j
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany

h i g h l i g h t s

 Climate, Land-use, Energy and Water Systems (CLEWS) are strongly interlinked.
 Related policy making is often informed by disconnected resource assessments.
 The value of interlinking such assessments is demonstrated, focusing on energy.
 The effects of water stress on the energy system were modelled more accurately.
 The benefit of ethanol generation was largely overestimated without interlinkages.

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Climate, Energy, Water and Land-use Systems (CLEWS) are closely integrated. Yet, most related decision
Received 4 February 2013 and policy making occurs in disparate institutional entities, informed by relatively disconnected assess-
Received in revised form 2 July 2013 ments of the individual resource systems. This paper presents the added value of an integrated analytical
Accepted 27 August 2013
assessment approach. In doing so, it explicitly values various interdependencies and interactions
Available online 27 September 2013
between CLEWS primarily from an energy sector perspective. The island state of Mauritius was identified
as a useful case study given its diverse climate, its increasing water stresses, and its policy focus on
Keywords:
reshaping agricultural land-use and reducing fossil fuel imports. Several scenarios to 2030 were defined
Integrated energy modelling
Bioenergy and biofuels
and analysed to demonstrate the tensions around the CLEWS nexus. Results from an assessment of the
Sustainable development energy system with no modelled interlinkages to land-use, energy and water systems are first presented.
Climate change Then, these are compared to those from an integrated CLEWS assessment. This serves to highlight impor-
tant dynamics that would have been overlooked without such a systems approach. As an example, the
added value of this approach is clearly demonstrated when rainfall reductions are taken into account,
and where future land-use changes might occur.
Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction ing and heating. All of these resources have in common that they
are – depending on the context – constrained in some way. As de-
1.1. Rationale mand for these resources tends to increase globally, so do efforts
to access and secure them, often leading to tensions in areas where
Globally, the most basic human needs rely on the availability of a they are scarce [1]. At a national level, such tensions may be due to a
few key resources. Those include: water for drinking; water and dependency on resource imports. At a more local level, they may be
land for food production; and energy for services like lighting, cook- due to diverging priorities on how they should be used. The pros-
pects of climate change may exacerbate related stresses. This is
⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +46 (0)8 790 76 82. due to the potential changes in rainfall and in the availability of ara-
E-mail address: [Link]@[Link] (M. Welsch). ble land. These changes may be accompanied by increases in energy

0306-2619/$ - see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
[Link]
 M. Welsch et al. / Applied Energy 113 (2014) 1434–1445 1435

demand, e.g., for cooling or desalinating water. Examples for stres- 3 and 4. Results for these scenarios are presented in Section 5. The
ses which are related to resources include tensions regarding the added value of the CLEWS approach is synthesized at the end of
use of the river Nile [2,3], deforestation of the Amazon rain forest Section 5. The paper concludes in Section 6 by highlighting condi-
and its implications for climate change [4], or gas exports from Rus- tions under which the benefits of an integrated CLEWS approach
sia to Europe via the Ukraine in 2009 [5,6]. are likely to justify the additional effort required.
Any single one of these resources might cause stresses to secure
their accessibility. Even more complex situations may evolve in 2. A brief background on Mauritius
cases where Climate, Energy, Water and Land-use Systems
(CLEWS) are interrelated. For example, future rainfall reductions 2.1. Mauritius and its economy
in Mauritius would affect the water availability on this water
stressed island, e.g., for hydropower generation and agriculture. The Republic of Mauritius is an archipelago in the Indian Ocean,
Maintaining agricultural production requires an increased electric- 950 km east of Madagascar2. Its population amounts to 1.2 million
ity generation for groundwater pumping for irrigation. Meeting inhabitants. With a population density of 668 people per km2, it is
this increased electricity demand and compensating the lower the most densely populated country in Africa [22–24].
hydropower production requires additional generation by other Mauritius is classified as an upper-middle-income country by
power plants. Increasing the generation of fossil fuel-fired power the World Bank. Its economy is primarily based on services, which
plants increases the country’s import dependency and greenhouse contribute 69% to the gross domestic product (GDP). 27% of GDP
gas emissions. Further examples of the relevance of capturing such are generated in industry including sugar processing. About 90%
interlinkages between resource systems are provided in [1]. of the sugar produced is exported to the European Union (EU). Su-
Government structures and the associated division of responsi- gar represented 11% of total domestic exports in 2009 [25–28].
bilities and priorities do not favour the integrated approach required The country’s economic and social progress is potentially under
to capture these interlinkages. Historically, related decision-making threat from external shocks. In 2009, an EU decision came into ef-
is often based on fragmented assessments of CLEWS resources and fect which cut the guaranteed sugar import price by 36% compared
interactions between all resource systems are rarely taken into to 2006 price levels. Further, Mauritius imports coal and liquid
account [7]. From an energy modelling perspective, related assess- fuels to meet 83% of its energy needs. It is therefore very vulnerable
ments hardly ever go beyond a consideration of greenhouse gas to rising and volatile world energy prices. Increased energy secu-
emissions or biomass as a fuel for energy generation (e.g., as in [8– rity and diversifying income from exports are key policy concerns
14]). [15] goes one step further by interlinking a water demand [20,29–32].
model with models representing a PV pumping system and in [16] In the wake of the reform of the EU sugar import regime3, the
elements of a water system model were incorporated into an energy government has formulated several measures to refocus agriculture.
model. This is reflected by a shift from the farming of sugar cane to food
A more holistic assessment was provided in [17], which focuss- crops. Further, since 2004, several sugar cane mills have started to
es on the intensification of agriculture in Burkina Faso to help produce ethanol. The target production of 30 million liters from
ensure future food production. The study indicated the importance molasses, either for domestic blending with gasoline or export, is
of an integrated CLEWS approach when designing strategies in therefore well in reach [23,34–39].
support of sustainable development.
2.2. Mauritius and its CLEW resources
1.2. About this paper
2.2.1. Some background on climate, agricultural land-use and water
This paper quantitatively demonstrates the added value of such Mauritius has a sub-tropical maritime climate with an average
an integrated CLEWS assessment. This is done by comparing con- annual temperature between 22 and 33 °C. Although it is relatively
clusions derived from an energy model with those of an integrated small with an area of 186,500 ha, its rainfall patterns are diverse
CLEWS approach. Mauritius was identified as an ideal case study and characterized by its topography. They are strongly dependent
given its diverse climate, its growing water stress, and its focus on elevation, proximity to the coast, and position relative to the
on reshaping agricultural land-use and decreasing fossil fuel prevailing winds and mountain ranges. Yearly averages may vary
imports. Further, Mauritius has a robust data set on the use of from as low as 750 mm in the western areas up to over
its resources1. As a small island, it also has conveniently defined 4000 mm on the central plateau. Summer, lasting from November
system boundaries. The choice of Mauritius allowed building on a to April, receives two-thirds of the yearly rain [22,40,41].
previous case study, which identified important CLEWS dynamics These rainfall patterns are reflected in diverse agricultural
for Mauritius [19]. In line with the long-term energy strategy of conditions and result in extensive water transportation needs for
Mauritius [20], increases in local ethanol production are investigated irrigation. Full control irrigation increased from 12,000 ha in
in and serve to demonstrate the CLEWS nexus. 1970 to 19,900 ha in 2010. More of 90% of this irrigated area is
While this paper considers the relevance of an integrated used for sugar cane production. Sugar cane is currently processed
CLEWS assessment, it does so through an ‘‘energy perspective’’. It by six sugar producing factories, each with its dedicated cropland.
feeds into a related research effort with a broader focus, which pro- Overall, 34% of the total area of Mauritius is cultivated [23,42].
vides more detail on the overall CLEWS approach and its applica- Water demand per capita amounts to 221 l/capita/day. 63% of
tion on Mauritius [21]. This related effort presents further all water consumption can be attributed to agriculture4. While
background on the applied climate, land-use and water models. the agricultural sector currently meets its water demand mainly
It maps the interactions between the individual resources models
and shows overall results including greenhouse gas emissions, 2
All data mentioned in this paper refers to the main island of Mauritius. Small
water supply dynamics and crop productivities. For a more concep- surrounding islets as well as the neighbouring island of Rodrigues have not been
tual background on the CLEWS approach, please refer to [7]. included in the analysis. Their total area constitutes less than 10% of the total area of
This paper first provides a brief background on Mauritius in Sec- Mauritius (in total: 2040 km2) [22].
3
tion 2 before presenting the methodology and scenarios in Sections The EU decision to reduce its guaranteed sugar import prices was taken to comply
with its commitments within the World Trade Organization (WTO). Mauritius was
considered as one of the countries suffering most from this reform [33].
1 4
E.g., via the website of the Central Statistics Office [18]. Utilisation of water for hydropower is not taken into account.
1436 M. Welsch et al. / Applied Energy 113 (2014) 1434–1445

with surface water, over half of all other water demand is met
through extraction from boreholes5. Increasing this ground water
use would be problematic: abstractions have reached saturation lev-
els in large parts of the country with aquifers being at risk of sea
water intrusion. This can especially be an issue in the northern
and eastern coastal areas and during dry spells. While Mauritius is
increasingly getting water stressed, water conservation measures,
wastewater treatment and desalination are becoming popular. For
example, hotels are obliged to provide related provisions since
2005 [23,30,43–45].

2.2.2. Mauritius’ energy system

Mauritius imports all of its petroleum products as well as coal.
It uses only limited amounts of domestic renewable energy re- Fig. 1. Schematic of Current Practice approach.
sources. These include fuel wood, wind power, hydropower and
biomass – especially bagasse, a by-product of sugarcane process-
ing. Bagasse accounts for 93% of the energy content of all domestic scenarios were first analysed with a focus on the energy system
energy resources and is used for co-generation of heat and electric- and without taking explicit interlinkages between land-use, energy
ity at sugar factories [30,46,47]. and water systems into account. Rainfall reductions based on pub-
Over the past decade, Mauritius’ dependence on energy imports licly available climate model data were considered as an external
has grown from approximately 1100 ktoe in 2000 to about 1500 input value to estimate hydropower availability for scenarios con-
ktoe in 2010. The corresponding share of energy imports has in- sidering the effects of climate change [52,53]. This initial set up is
creased from 11% of the total import bill in 2000 to 18% in 2010. outlined in Fig. 1 and referred to as the ‘Current Practice’ approach.
During the period of peak oil prices in 2008 it rose to even 21% Next, the same scenarios were re-assessed considering these
[30,41,48–50]. interlinkages by using the integrated ‘CLEWS approach’ as shown
Electricity generation utilizes 96% of all coal imports. The in Fig. 2. This approach draws on the following individual well-
remainder is used by the manufacturing industries. Gasoline, diesel tested and specialised resource models.
and aviation fuel are the three main transportation fuels. Overall,
the transport sector accounts for 54% of all demand for petroleum 3.1. Modelling tools
products, while 26% are used for electricity generation [30].
In 2010, 2689 GWh of electricity were generated. Thermal 3.1.1. Climate
power plants, including the incineration of bagasse, contributed External climate models were not set up as an integral part of
with 96% to the total electricity generation. Hydro and wind power this assessment. Instead, selected General Circulation Models
provided to the remaining 4%. The peak demand in 2010 was (GCM)6 and their corresponding climate projections were used to
404.1 MW. The generation fuel mix has been evolving over time derive temperature and rainfall assumptions, which were applied
with a major shift from fuel oil to coal. Of the 778 ktoe of fuel in- to the other resource models [52,53]. Greenhouse gas emissions
puts used for power generation in 2010, coal comprised 51%, oil were accounted for in the energy model, but not fed back into the
products 25% and bagasse 23% [30,48]. climate models as they on their own were not assumed to affect
the local climate conditions.
2.2.3. ‘Medine’ and ‘F.U.E.L.’
Special attention was paid to the sugar cane processing plants 3.1.2. Land-use
‘Medine’ and ‘F.U.E.L’, where ethanol production was introduced The modelling of the land-use system draws on the raster-based
in some scenarios. Medine is situated in the more water stressed Agro-Ecological Zones land production planning model (AEZ) [53].
western part of Mauritius, some 15 km south-west of the capital A resolution of approximately 250 m time 250 m was used to derive
Port Louis. In 2010, it processed the sugar cane of 4600 ha of land. the production potential of the farmland used for ethanol produc-
This corresponds to 8% of the total area in Mauritius where sugar tion. Further, AEZ served to calculate irrigation requirements under
cane is harvested. The by-product bagasse is used to generate heat different climate conditions as well fertilizer input required by dif-
and electricity for its own use and for export to the national grid. ferent crops under different conditions like crop cycles per year.
Its current electricity generation capacity is 6 MW [42,51].
F.U.E.L. is located about 20 km to the east of Port Louis. In 2010,
3.1.3. Water
it processed the sugar cane of 13,800 ha, corresponding to 24% of
The water system was modelled using the Water Evaluation
the total area harvested. It produces electricity from both, bagasse
and Planning System (WEAP) [54] tool. WEAP is a tool for water re-
and coal, at a maximum capacity of 27 MW. Like at Medine, waste
source planning, which was applied to assess the implications of
heat from bagasse is used for sugar cane processing. With 1.4 mil-
local municipal and agricultural water requirements on the na-
lion tonnes, the sugar cane production of both plants amounts to
tional water supply schemes. Within WEAP, Mauritius’ rivers were
30% of the total production of Mauritius. The combined electricity
modelled as about 60 catchment areas. Each of them was charac-
generation of 167 GWh provides 7% to the total generation [42,51].
terized by specific hydrological and climatic profiles and land-cov-
er classes, interlinked with its reservoirs and the five main aquifers
3. Methodology of the island.
Further information about the interlinkages between WEAP and
Most decision and policy making related to land-use, energy and AEZ as well as background on the structure and set up of these
water systems occur in disconnected institutional entities with lit- models are presented in [21].
tle, if at all, coordination or communication [7]. Therefore several
6
Including the following models: C2A2, CSA2, EHA2, C2B2, CSB2, EHB2, H3B2,
5
Again, hydropower is excluded. CSB1, H3B1 and H3A1.
 M. Welsch et al. / Applied Energy 113 (2014) 1434–1445 1437

Fig. 2. Schematic of CLEWS approach.

3.1.4. Energy demand growth of 3.5% was assumed. Any additional electricity
The energy system was assessed with the Long-range Energy requirements for pumping for irrigation and desalination were
Alternatives Planning (LEAP) tool. LEAP is a widely used tool for ana- explicitly entered in the model. Economic considerations are based
lysing energy systems, including power dispatch and capacity expan- on an assumed oil price of 80 USD per barrel, a coal price of 60 USD
sion. It enables a consideration of various economic sectors, per ton9 and a sugar export price of 420 USD per ton10.
technologies, costs and emission profiles [55–57]. The LEAP tool To model the electricity generation, all power plants and co-
was set up to reflect the extraction, conversion and demand of energy. generating processing plants that export electricity to the national
grid were modelled individually. Future power expansions plans
3.2. ‘Current Practice approach’ were taken into account [20,65]. Any additional future capacity
needs were assumed to be met by investments in coal-fired power
In the Current Practice approach, the LEAP tool was used to plants to meet the base load and oil-fired power plants to meet bal-
calculate: ancing requirements11. Efficiencies and capacity factors of power
plants were calibrated from historical data. Power plants were dis-
 the average7 power plant dispatching and future capacity patched giving priority to those with the lowest short run marginal
requirements; generating costs. Capital, operating and fuel costs were chosen
 the ethanol production from sugar cane based on data regarding according to data based on assessments of comparable international
historic sugar cane harvests; plants [66,67]. Please refer to the annex for an overview of key
 changes in fuel imports to the island due to the substitution of power plant input data.
gasoline with ethanol; While hydropower generates less than 5% of the total electric-
 the effects of changes in rainfall patterns on generation; as well ity, it is strongly affected by the rainfall reductions in scenarios
as considering climate change. This is due to reduced inflows, poten-
 greenhouse gas emissions, both on the island, as well as associ- tially increased reservoir outflows and diversions to meet other
ated external emissions due to fuel processing and fertiliser water demands in times of shortage. A hydropower plant con-
supply to the island8. nected to a reservoir is assumed to be able to generate electricity
in all months where the storage volume is more than an assumed
The energy system was set up based on historical demand data ‘dead storage’ capacity of 5% of the total. A yearly ‘hydro factor’ was
from the period 2005–2009 and generation data from 2005–2008 calculated. This factor de-rates the hydropower generation should
[48,50,59–64]. Aligned with historical growth rates, an electricity
9
Whenever ton is used as a unit in this paper, it refers to metric tons.
7 10
The temporal information within LEAP is based on time slices. These time slices At these prices the losses associated with reduced sugar exports are lower than
represent times of the year with specific demand or generation characteristics. The the gains from the reduced imports of gasoline. Prices vary and are likely to be volatile
accuracy of the dispatching modelled with LEAP therefore relates to the chosen in global markets. The positive cost-benefit balance is therefore not guaranteed. For
number and definition of time slices as opposed to the detailed temporal resolution an oil price of 100 USD/barrel and sugar prices higher than 700 USD/ton, ethanol
required for the daily dispatching by a system operator. Refer to [58] for a view on the production would not be profitable any longer [7]. This paper focuses on a
value of an increased temporal resolution. comparison of differences in key energy dynamics with and without an integrated
8
Including those associated with oil refining, coal processing and fertiliser CLEWS approach. A detailed sensitivity analysis of the costs is outside of its scope.
11
production. Note that in scenarios where sugar cane is used for ethanol instead of Coal-fired power plants were assumed to contribute 70% of future capacity
sugar production, external economic effects outside of Mauritius were not considered. requirements for meeting peak demand. Oil-fired power plants were assumed to
Those could be significant, yet are difficult to assess. For example, the loss of area for provide the remaining 30%, plus requirements to meet the system’s reserve margin of
sugar cane farming could be compensated by increases in farm land in other sugar 21%. For balancing requirements, the minimum share of oil based generation in the
producing countries. This could potentially lead to deforestation and associated total mix was set to 15%. This compares to a national target to reduce the share of oil
greenhouse gas emissions. to 20% in 2025 [20].
1438 M. Welsch et al. / Applied Energy 113 (2014) 1434–1445

the times with low storage volumes increase in the future. This Table 1
could be due to the future impact of climate change or increases Overview of abbreviations for all scenarios.

in reservoir outflows. Smaller hydropower plants which are not Business as Ethanol –1st Ethanol –2nd
connected to reservoirs are assumed to reduce their generation usual generation generation
by the same share that the average river flow is reduced. The Current Practice BAU 1GEN 2GEN
monthly storage volumes and river flows were calculated by approach BAU + CC 1GEN + CC –
assuming river flow reductions to equal the expected rainfall CLEWS Approach BAUCLEWS 1GENCLEWS 2GENCLEWS
BAU + CCCLEWS 1GEN + CCCLEWS 2NC + CCCLEWS
reductions in per cent. No increases in competing water uses were
considered in the ‘Current Practice approach’, e.g., for agricultural,
municipal or industrial water demands. ing for urban water supply and sugarcane processing as derived
from the water model, and pumping for agricultural irrigation
3.3. ‘CLEWS approach’ as derived via the land-use model.
 Desalination demand for urban water supply was included as
When reassessing the energy system considering the CLEWS another input value to the energy model.
approach, additional interlinkages between the energy model and  Monthly storage volumes and river flows were derived from the
the land-use and water model were taken into account12. The re- water model. This enabled a consideration of competing water
quired steps for this assessment were as follows: demands like agricultural or municipal demands. The hydro-
power generation was calculated based on these storage vol-
1. Identify the interactions between the climate, land-use, energy umes and river flows following the same logic as in the
and water resource systems. This first step can be considered as Current Practice approach.
the most important step, and might require some form of col-  Water demands for ethanol production and power plant cooling
laboration with experts on the various resource systems. requirements were derived as output data from the energy
2. Quantify these interactions. Such quantification focused, for model and fed into the water model.
example, on the groundwater demand for irrigation in agricul-
ture and the associated energy requirements for pumping.
Quantifying the interactions is required to get a sense of the rel- 4. Scenarios
evance of the various interactions.
3. Represent the interactions within the modelling framework. In line with the long-term energy strategy of Mauritius, the ef-
4. Clearly define the required exchange of data between the fects of increases in local ethanol production were investigated up
resource models and its format. This is referred to as ‘‘soft-link- until 2030. Ethanol was assumed to be added to the fuel mix of the
ing’’ the individual models. It is only required in case separate local car fleet, or exported if deemed beneficial14. Changing weather
modelling tools are applied. patterns and decreasing rainfall are of concern to the Government of
5. Calibrate the modelling tool(s) based on historical data. Conve- Mauritius as the island is prone to drought [69]. Therefore, the ef-
niently, this is first done through separated model runs, without fects of climate change were considered.
considering any interlinkages between the models. In addition to a ‘‘business as usual’’ case based on historical
6. Develop scenarios to compare the implications of various key trends and current government targets for renewable electricity
assumptions on future development pathways. generation, the scenarios to model these developments were
7. Represent the scenarios in the modelling tool(s). grouped as follows:
8. As some outputs from one model might serve as input data for
another, iterations may be required before a convergent solu-  Scenarios without Climate Change Considerations: The sugar
tion emerges. cane processing plants ‘Medine’ and ’F.U.E.L’ are converted to
9. Interpret results and the differences between the Current Prac- produce ethanol instead of sugar from 2015 onwards.
tice and the CLEWS approach.  Scenarios with Climate Change Considerations: Additionally,
the effects of climate change are simulated by decreasing rain-
Fig. 2 provides an overview of the interactions between these fall linearly to 20.4% during the period from 2010 to 2030. This
tools. is based on a worst case scenario derived from the selected Gen-
While the structure of the LEAP model was kept exactly the eral Circulation Models (GCM) [52,53].
same as in the Current Practice approach, the following interlink-
ages to the other resource models were taken into account: The following section outlines the scenarios established based
on these considerations. If possible, the exact same scenarios were
 The bioenergy production potential and fertiliser requirements set up for both, the Current Practice (Section 4.1) and the CLEWS
for growing an alternative crop were derived from the land-use assessments (Section 4.2). Only one scenario explicitly relies on
model. an integration of resource systems. It was therefore only possible
 Additional13 water pumping demands were incorporated as to assess this scenario pursuing the CLEWS approach.
input values to the energy model. Those demands include pump- Table 1 provides an overview of all of the scenarios assessed and
their abbreviations. Note that the superscript ‘CLEWS’ refers to the
assessment of a scenario based on the CLEWS approach. Scenarios
12
While an energy model on its own can be developed relatively straightforward without this superscript were assessed based on the Current Prac-
based on data published in literature, pursuing the CLEWS approach comes with a tice approach. The extension ‘+CC’ refers to scenarios considering
considerable level of effort. When drawing on individual resource models, the output climate change.
data of one model might serve as input data for another. Agreeing on a clear timeline,
resolution and format of these inputs and output is therefore a necessity for a
14
successful CLEWS assessment. Further, common assumptions and scenarios have to This may occur if the car fleet is not able to absorb all of the ethanol produced. In
be well thought through and agreed on upfront. Any later change is a potential cause this case, it was assumed that there is an external market for ethanol from Mauritius
of errors if not implemented correctly in all models and scenarios, and might cause and that import prices of gasoline per energy content equal export prices for ethanol.
significant delays if not scheduled for. Therefore, it has no economic implications if the ethanol is consumed on Mauritius or
13
Additional to the demand in the business as usual scenario of the Current Practice exported. [68] reports that such exports are already taking place, with an ethanol
approach (BAU). producer aiming at increasing its exports to 30 million litres per year.
 M. Welsch et al. / Applied Energy 113 (2014) 1434–1445 1439

Fig. 3. Generation Mix by Power Plant for the business as usual (BAU). Red areas are assigned to power plants which are fired with petroleum products, grey areas to coal-
fired power plants and green areas to renewable energy, including plants running on both bagasse and coal. This colour coding is maintained throughout this paper. (For
interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

4.1. Current Practice approach (BAUCLEWS). Further, an additional scenario is investigated, which
could not have been assessed pursuing the Current Practice
4.1.1. Scenarios without climate change considerations approach:
[Link]. BAU: business as usual. In this scenario, electricity and gas-
oline demand growth follow historical trends. Electricity and heat 4.2.1. 2NC+CCCLEWS: ethanol – 2nd generation, new crop, water stress,
generation from bagasse continues at current levels, but no ethanol CLEWS approach
is produced. Future renewable electricity generation shares reflect This scenario builds on the second generation ethanol produc-
the targets outlined in the long-term energy strategy of Mauritius. tion scenario (2GENCLEWS). It explores the potential of growing an
Rainfall patterns, reservoir levels and thus hydropower availability alternative crop as ethanol feedstock for processing at the two se-
were expected to reflect historical levels. The results of the follow- lected processing plants. The characteristics of this alternative crop
ing scenarios assessed with the Current Practice approach are illus- were aligned with those of corn. It allows for two harvest cycles
trated as changes to this baseline scenario. and is more drought resistant than sugar cane. All other processing
plants continue to rely on sugar cane for sugar production. As for
[Link]. 1GEN: ethanol – 1st generation. Sugar production is changed all climate change scenarios, rainfall is reduced based on the out-
to so-called ‘first generation’ ethanol production15. Ethanol is lined climate change assumptions.
blended with gasoline to meet domestic transportation fuel demand
or used for export. The by-product bagasse is used to produce elec- 4.3. Assumptions related to ethanol production, agriculture and water
tricity at the sugar cane processing plants. Excess electricity is sold supply
to the national grid.
If not stated otherwise, sugar cane production is maintained at
[Link]. 2GEN: ethanol – 2nd generation. Sugar cane is again used to historical levels in all scenarios18. When applying the CLEWS ap-
produce ethanol. However, excess bagasse is no longer used to pro- proach, the water supply and land-use models were set up accord-
duce electricity for the national grid. Instead, it is also converted to ingly to support this level of production: When precipitation is
ethanol via hydrolysis, using so called ‘second generation’ insufficient, irrigation is used to meet any additional water require-
technologies16. ments for feed stock. The irrigation water demand is covered by sur-
face runoff. Should this not suffice, groundwater pumping is
4.1.2. Scenarios with climate change considerations considered. Urban water demand is met through rivers and reser-
[Link]. BAU+CC: business as usual, water stress. This scenario builds voirs, groundwater pumping or with supplementary desalination19.
on the business as usual (BAU) scenario, but with rainfall reduc- Desalination is considered for meeting urban demand if pumping
tions due to climate change. No ethanol is produced. would reduce the available groundwater by more than 15% below
the historical minimum. Groundwater is already currently at risk
[Link]. 1GEN+CC: ethanol – 1st generation, water stress. This sce- of saline intrusions. Therefore, this appears as a rather conservative
nario builds on the first generation ethanol production scenario assumption with regard to demand increases for desalination.
(1GEN), but with rainfall reductions due to climate change17.
5. Results
4.2. CLEWS approach
Based on the outlined methodology, this section presents the
All scenarios assessed with the Current Practice approach are results for the business as usual, the first and the second genera-
reassessed with the CLEWS approach, i.e., taking the interlinkages tion scenarios. Each of them is first assessed applying the Current
with the water and land-use models into account. The results are Practice approach with and without climate change considerations,
presented as changes to the respective baseline scenario followed by a reassessment pursuing the CLEWS approach.
Changes in the results between different scenarios and the busi-
15
‘First generation’ refers to ethanol production from sugar and starch crops [70]. ness as usual case are presented for the year 2030. This serves to
16
‘Second generation’ refers to ethanol production from lignocellulosic biomass. assess what level of detail is gained and to what extent the derived
This extends the potential feed stock sources, e.g., to bagasse from sugar cane, waste
products from agriculture and forestry, or municipal waste [70].
17 18
The second generation scenario (2GEN) was not reassessed taking climate change One scenario explicitly considers the introduction of a new crop instead of
into consideration. This is because results showed that the first generation scenario growing sugar cane at Medine and F.U.E.L.
19
(1GEN) is economically more attractive. This would not change when considering Recall that hotels are already obliged to provide provisions for desalination plants
climate change. since 2005 [37].[45].
1440 M. Welsch et al. / Applied Energy 113 (2014) 1434–1445

Changes in Electricity Demand related to Water Changes in Generation in 2030

Requirements in 2030

Fig. 4. Changes in electricity demand and generation for BAU + CCCLEWS compared to BAUCLEWS.

potential conclusions vary when considering the more integrated approach (BAUCLEWS). There are only some minor changes in
CLEWS approach. hydropower generation towards the end of the modelling period
due to increases in urban consumption. However, when reassess-
5.1. Business as usual ing the BAU taking climate change into consideration
(BAU + CCCLEWS), several dynamics would have been overlooked:
5.1.1. Current Practice approach through the CLEWS approach an additional electricity demand
Based on the calibration with historical values and future for water supply is identified, which amounts to 67,000 MWh in
expansion plans, Fig. 3 shows the generation mix over the model- 2030. This is due to sea water desalination and pumping to meet
ling period (BAU). Electricity generation increases from 2240 GWh urban water demand and as well groundwater pumping for irriga-
in 2005 to 5260 GWh in 2030. Most future demand is met by coal- tion (left graph of Fig. 4).
fired power plants (grey areas), with a significant reduction of the Further, due to the consideration of climate change, the hydro-
share of oil-fired power generation (red areas). This shift from power generation is reduced from 83,200 MWh to 16,200 MWh in
petroleum products to coal is in line with the government’s strat- 2030 (BAUCLEWS vs. BAU + CCCLEWS). This 81% reduction is much
egy to diversify its electricity mix and to avoid oil. Reducing the more significant than the 40% reduction as observed in the corre-
dependence on oil serves to minimise the associated higher geopo- sponding scenarios of the Current Practice approach (BAU vs.
litical risks and more volatile prices. BAU + CC). The Current Practice approach would therefore lead to
The BAU scenario was reassessed taking the effects of climate an over 260% higher hydropower generation in 2030. This may
change into account (BAU + CC). Its impact was found to be insig- not considerably affect the total electricity generation given the
nificant when looking at overall generation levels. However, this limited role of hydropower for Mauritius. However, for countries
changes when focusing specifically on hydropower: reductions of with higher hydropower shares such dynamics should not be
40% from 97,500 MWh to 58,900 MWh occur in 2030 (BAU vs. overlooked.
BAU + CC). These reductions are mainly compensated through in- Fig. 5 depicts the reasons for this overestimation. As identified
creases in coal, followed by oil-fired power plants. This results in by the water model, withdrawals from reservoirs for urban and
an increase of greenhouse gas emissions by 42,000 tons of CO2-eq agricultural water demand increase when considering climate
in 2030 compared to BAU. This increase constitutes just over one change. This accelerates the drawdown of the reservoirs, leaving
per cent of Mauritius’ total net emissions [43]. little water to be used for hydropower generation (graph on the left
of Fig. 5). Without the CLEWS approach, these increasing
5.1.2. CLEWS approach withdrawals were overlooked and all reservoirs are able to recover
The dynamics of the BAU scenario without climate change re- once they have been emptied in summer, as shown on the right of
main very similar once reassessed with the holistic CLEWS Fig. 5.

Reservoir levels with CLEWS approach Reservoir levels with Current Practice Approach

Fig. 5. Projected reservoir levels in thousand m3.

 M. Welsch et al. / Applied Energy 113 (2014) 1434–1445 1441

Changes in Generation in 2030 Changes in Costs in 2030

Fig. 6. Changes in selected energy dynamics for 1GEN compared to BAU.

CLEWS CLEWS
Changes in Costs in 2030 for 1GEN Changes in Costs in 2030 for 2GEN

Fig. 7. Changes in costs for 1GENCLEWS and 2GENCLEWS, both compared to BAUCLEWS.

The additional demand and lower hydropower generation when compensated by increased generation from coal and oil-fired
considering climate change result in changes in generation as illus- power plants, as illustrated for 2030 in the left graph of Fig. 6.
trated for 2030 in the graph on the right of Fig. 4. The bars with However, the resulting greenhouse gas balance is very much in
negative y-axis values show power plants which decrease their favour of the ethanol production. 148,000 tons of CO2-eq could be
generation in the BAU + CCCLEWS scenario compared to the corre- avoided in 2030. This is due to the use of ethanol as a substitute
sponding business as usual scenario (BAUCLEWS). Similarly, the bars for gasoline in the transport sector and the reduced external emis-
with positive y-axis values represent power plants which are ex- sions of associated oil refining. Also from an economic perspective,
pected to increase their output: these are oil and coal-fired power when focusing solely on the energy sector, this measure would be
plants, which leads to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions of very favourable. The reduced gasoline imports outweigh the cost
154,000 tons of CO2-eq compared to the corresponding business increases for the ethanol production at Medine and F.U.E.L. by
as usual case without climate change. far, as shown on the right of Fig. 6. The total net benefit of 43.5 mil-
lion USD in 2030 is derived by subtracting the benefit due to the
5.2. Ethanol – 1st generation reduced imports from the additional costs at Medine and F.U.E.L.
Next, the first generation scenario is reassessed taking climate
5.2.1. Current Practice approach change into consideration (1GEN + CC). The corresponding changes
In this scenario it was assumed that the sugar cane processing in generation are due to reductions in hydropower (as observed in
plants Medine and F.U.E.L. were converted to produce first genera- BAU + CC). This is compensated by additional generation from coal
tion ethanol from sugar cane (1GEN). The ethanol would be used to and oil-fired power plants. The ethanol production of 1950 TJ re-
replace some of the gasoline required for the car fleet. 1950 TJ of mains the same as in the 1GEN scenario. Greenhouse gas reduc-
ethanol per year could be produced by the two plants. This could tions of 106,000 tons of CO2-eq occur in 2030. Given the lower
be used to reduce gasoline imports or for export. It compares to hydropower generation, these reductions are less significant than
a total demand for gasoline of 5350 TJ in 2010 [30]. Due to the in the case without climate change (1GEN). From an economic per-
higher electricity requirements for producing ethanol as compared spective, the dynamics do not change significantly due to climate
to sugar, the two sugar cane processing plants would export change (i.e., compared with the right graph of Fig. 6). The addi-
3400 MWh less electricity to the national grid. This would be tional costs for coal and oil imports to compensate the reduced
1442 M. Welsch et al. / Applied Energy 113 (2014) 1434–1445

Changes in Generation in 2030 Changes in Costs in 2030

Fig. 8. Changes in selected energy dynamics for 2GEN compared to BAU.

hydropower generation are negligible compared to the benefits in generation at Medine and F.U.E.L. The overall ethanol production
associated with the reduced gasoline imports and the additional increases to 2660 GJ at the price of slightly higher overall costs
costs at Medine and F.U.E.L. Ethanol generation therefore remains compared to the first generation scenario (1GEN): While costs for
attractive. gasoline imports decrease, this is outweighed by the higher costs
of producing second generation ethanol (graph on the right of
5.2.2. CLEWS approach Fig. 8, compared with graph on the right of Fig. 6). The economic
Next, first generation ethanol production is reassessed with the benefit of producing 2nd generation ethanol amounts to 37.2 mil-
CLEWS approach. Without taking climate change into account lion USD in 2030, and is therefore significantly lower than for 1st
(1GENCLEWS), very little interaction with the actual land-use or generation ethanol production. The greenhouse gas reductions of
water system occurs. 123,000 tons of CO2-eq in 2030 are as well lower than in the first
However, from an economic perspective, there is an important generation scenario. Overall, apart from the opportunity to in-
interlinkage with the agricultural sector: the use of sugar cane crease Mauritius’ energy security by reducing its import depen-
for ethanol production reduces the income from sugar exports by dency on gasoline (or to diversify export earnings through
48.0 million USD. Some of this is compensated by the reduced ex- additional ethanol exports), the first generation scenario therefore
penses for sugar production of 20.6 million USD (Fig. 7). Thus, the seems favourable. When pursuing the Current Practice approach,
total economic benefit of ethanol production is significantly re- taking climate change into consideration would only affect the
duced by 27.4 million USD20. This type of economic interlinkage hydropower generation, but not the profitability of the ethanol
to another sector might be simple in this case. However, it can easily generation. Second generation ethanol production would therefore
become more complex if several feedstocks compete for various uses remain less attractive.
like electricity generation, biofuel production or food processing.
When adding climate change considerations (1GEN + CCCLEWS), 5.3.2. CLEWS approach
the additional water demand for producing first generation ethanol As in the 1GENCLEWS scenario, very little interaction with the ac-
from sugar cane has an insignificant impact on the additional en- tual land-use or water system occurs in the 2GENCLEWS scenario.
ergy demand. The related dynamics presented in the right graph However, income from sugar exports and the expenditures for su-
of Fig. 4 therefore remain. From an economic point of view, the gar production are reduced (left graph of Fig. 7). Thus, as in
overall changes in costs remain similar to those of the correspond- 1GENCLEWS, the total economic benefit of ethanol production is sig-
ing CLEWS scenario without climate change (1GENCLEWS) as shown nificantly reduced by 27.4 million USD when pursuing the CLEWS
in the left graph of Fig. 7. However, additional costs of 8.2 million approach.
USD are incurred to compensate for the reduced hydropower gen- When considering climate change, applying the CLEWS ap-
eration. There are no greenhouse gas emission reductions relative proach does not change the fact that 2nd generation ethanol pro-
to the BAUCLEWS any longer. Rather, an increase of 10,000 tons of duction would remain less attractive then 1st generation ethanol
CO2-eq occurs. This is due to the lower hydropower generation production. The CLEWS approach was therefore applied in order
and the higher total electricity demand, which is met by coal and to investigate the profitability of growing an alternative crop21 as
oil-fired power plants. ethanol feedstock for the processing plants Medine and F.U.E.L.
(2NC + CCCLEWS). Despite its two crop cycles and even as climate
5.3. Ethanol – 2nd generation change is considered, the alternative crop has a lower overall energy
yield and requires less electricity for pumping and irrigation than su-
5.3.1. Current Practice approach gar cane does without taking climate change into account. The elec-
If the excess bagasse is also converted to ethanol (2GEN), both tricity demand at the two selected processing plants is therefore
processing plants are no longer able to export any electricity to lower than in the business as usual case without climate change
the grid. Instead the ethanol plants have to buy electricity from (negative bars in graph on the left of Fig. 9). This reduced water de-
the grid, resulting in a higher total electricity demand. Therefore, mand also translates into a lower demand for desalination compared
as illustrated by the graph on the left of Fig. 8, the increases in gen- to the other climate change scenarios (compare to right graph of
eration by coal and oil-fired power plants outweigh the decreases Fig. 4). As sugar cane is abandoned at Medine and F.U.E.L., no bagasse
is available for electricity generation and both processing plants
20
However, the benefits of increasing Mauritius’ energy security by reducing its
21
import dependency on gasoline remain. Its characteristics were aligned with those of corn.
 M. Welsch et al. / Applied Energy 113 (2014) 1434–1445 1443

Changes in Electricity Demand related to Water Changes in Generation in 2030

Requirements in 2030

Fig. 9. Changes in electricity demand and generation for 2NC + CCCLEWS compared to BAUCLEWS.

need to buy electricity from the grid. This additional electricity de- When assessing the climate change scenarios, the added value
mand is met by coal and oil-fired power generation. The overall of the CLEWS approach becomes even more evident. These scenar-
changes in generation when introducing a new crop and considering ios are characterized by an additional electricity demand for water
climate change are shown in the right graph of Fig. 9. supply of 67,000 MWh. The hydropower generation decreases
Despite the higher energy intensity of the new crop, due to the more significantly and, in 2030, constitutes only 28% of the gener-
overall lower yield only 1930 TJ of ethanol can be produced. This is ation derived from the Current Practice assessment. Further, com-
almost the same yield as with first generation ethanol from sugar pared to the Current Practice approach, the additional net imports
cane. Also the overall economic balance is less favourable than of oil and coal increase 3.5-fold to 1380 TJ in the first generation
for first generation ethanol production with sugar cane. This is ethanol scenario22. This ultimately results in an increase of green-
due to the higher processing costs associated with second genera- house gas emissions by 10,000 tons of CO2-eq instead of the previous
tion ethanol production, the higher electricity generation require- decrease. Finally, there is a whole new scenario which could not
ments and the lower ethanol production. Further, greenhouse gas have been assessed without the CLEWS approach. This scenario fo-
emissions increase to 59,000 additional tons of CO2-eq as compared cuses on the introduction of a new crop with its characteristic fertil-
to the business as usual case (BAUCLEWS). Overall, while diversify- izer, water and consequent energy demands as well as greenhouse
ing agriculture is one of the priorities of the Government of Mauri- gas emissions23.
tius, the new crop performs worse than sugar cane from a cost and
climate change perspective.
6. Conclusions

5.4. Adding value with CLEWS – summary of the findings Judging from this and related analysis [17], a basic level of
collaboration with professionals from outside of the energy sector
When assessing the energy system based on the Current Prac- appears valuable when setting up an energy assessment. Such col-
tice approach, we come to the conclusion that first generation eth- laboration helps to indicate upfront if any future resource related
anol production is very advantageous for Mauritius. It is stresses might occur. In some cases it will become apparent that
characterized by a positive economic balance of 43.5 million a deep integration among CLEWS will not be required. In other
USD, increased energy security through the production of 1950 TJ instances its added value might justify the modelling and coordi-
ethanol and 148,000 tons of CO2-eq reductions in 2030. Second gen- nation effort involved (refer to footnote 12).
eration ethanol production appears less attractive. Apart from the In this study issues such as a policy to diversify agriculture,
increases in ethanol production, both the cost and greenhouse ethanol production targets, and the potential need for desalination
gas balances look worse. suggested upfront that interdependencies between resource sys-
The conclusions regarding first generation ethanol production tems may require consideration in the energy model. The subse-
do not change significantly when considering climate change. quent analysis showed that moving from water surplus to water
While hydropower generation decreases by 40%, this still consti- stress increased the level of CLEWS interactions to a point where
tutes an insignificant fraction of the overall electricity generation. national dynamics around an ethanol production policy changed
The energy security situation compared to the business as usual significantly.
deteriorates slightly. Additional coal and oil net imports total 400 In general, a CLEWS approach is likely to be valuable for coun-
TJ. The overall greenhouse gas emission reductions now amount tries intending to implement integrated policies with potential
to 106,000 tons of CO2-eq. implications for multiple resource systems. High shares of hydro-
When pursuing an integrated CLEWS approach, the picture
changes considerably. The economic balance for both first and sec- 22
This refers to additional imports compared to the respective business as usual
ond generation ethanol production decreases by around 27.5 mil- cases (BAU and BAUCLEWS). While such a comparison is commonly used for energy
lion USD. This corresponds to over 60% of the total net benefit for models, a comparison of the total values instead of the additions would obviously
yield much lower differences in per cent.
first generation and over 70% for second generation ethanol pro- 23
The crop in this scenario did not perform better than sugar cane. However, it
duction. The reductions are mainly due to the losses in sugar ex- requires a CLEWS assessment to come to this conclusion and to justify the assumption
ports. Greenhouse gas reductions and ethanol production remain that sugar cane is also preferable once climate change considerations are taken into
basically the same as in the Current Practice assessment. account.
1444 M. Welsch et al. / Applied Energy 113 (2014) 1434–1445

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