Cybersecurity Regulation in Singularity Age
Cybersecurity Regulation in Singularity Age
SINGULARITY AGE
SUMMARY
This paper explores what regulation framework should be used to regulate the cyber security
in the context of singularity age and emerging legal technologies thereof. Singularity and post-
humanism scenarios may be seen as a matter-of-science fiction, but the ongoing technological
revolution is already fundamentally altering every human transaction and institutions in the
unprecedented ways. While one narrative touts the benefits of the greatest technological
developments and bright future of cyber dependent opportunities, other warns the cyber dangers. In
the search of the ways to reconcile regulation and technology, the need to turn to the fundamental
roots of the regulation framework per se is obvious.
Therefore, the aim of this paper is to develop the conceptual cyber-security regulation
framework in the context of singularity age and emerging legal technologies thereof. In order to
achieve it, this paper uncovers the status quo of cyber security problem, by highlighting recent
cyber incidents and the vulnerabilities of human error. It also develops a conceptual cyber security
regulation framework, based on the fundamentals of transaction cost theory. This framework is
evaluated in the context of emerging legal technologies.
KEYWORDS
IN LIEU OF INTRODUCTION:
THE CONTEXT OF SINGULARITY AGE
Singularity defines “the destiny of the human-machine civilization” 2. It starts with the
moment in time and velocity (power) of computation, when artificial intelligence becomes equal to
a human intelligence, and transcends towards the post-humanistic era.
1 Vytautas Magnus University, [Link] str. 28, Kaunas (Lithuania), Phone: +370 601 04524, fax: +370 37 201
107, e-mail: paulius@[Link]
2 R. Kurzweil, The Singularity is near. When Humans transcend biology, (NY Penguin Group, 2005)
1
The Singularity and its law of accelerating returns3 essentially is an economic theory and a
powerful driver of transforming, as Kurzweil states, “every institution and aspect of human life,
from sexuality to spirituality”4. Therefore, it also may be viewed through the lens of the new
institutional economics. Moreover, singularity is also a transcendence phenomenon, since it allows
us to transcend the limitations of human intelligence and biological bodies, thus empowering us to
gain power over our fates:
Our mortality will be in our own hands. We will be able to live as long as we want (a
subtly different statement from saying we will live forever). We will fully understand
human thinking and will vastly extend and expand its reach. By the end of this century,
the nonbiological portion of our intelligence will be trillions of trillions of times more
powerful than unaided human intelligence5
Kurzweil predicts that in 2029 artificial intelligence will pass a valid Turing test and therefore
achieve human levels of intelligence. He sets the date 2045 for the singularity. 6 Two years before
Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son prediction that the dawn of super-intelligent machines will happen
by 20477. Of course, there is no unanimous agreement if such scenario may be predicted on the
ground of simple equation with computational power, as Kurzweil and Son did. According to
Russell8, even with a computer of virtually unlimited capacity, we still would not know how to
achieve the brain’s level of intelligence.
Although singularity and post-humanism scenarios may be seen as a matter-of-science fiction,
it is beyond any reasonable doubt that the currently ongoing fourth industrial revolution is already
fundamentally altering every human transaction and institutions in the unprecedented ways. In its
scale, scope, and complexity, the transformations are unlike anything humankind has experienced
before9. Thus although we are still in the early stage of the intellectual technologies development
and, in fact, there is a probability that artificial intelligence will never transcend the human one, the
ongoing technological evolution trends exponentially towards the predicted singularity scenario.
Of course, the law and institutions are at the centre of these unprecedented technological
transformations. The Industrie 4.0 Working Group clearly and convincingly established that
“existing legislation will also need to be adapted to take account of new innovations” 10, therefore
requiring develop the regulatory framework in a way that facilitates innovation. Hence, besides the
laws on robots, there have been developed alternatives of laws by robots and laws in robots 11.
Accordingly, in the search of the ways to reconcile regulation and technology, the need to turn to
3 Id, Law of accelerating returns describes the acceleration of the pace of and the exponential growth of the products of
an evolutionary process. These products include, in particular, information-bearing technologies such as computation,
and their acceleration extends substantially beyond the predictions made by what has become known as Moore's Law.
The Singularity is the inexorable result of the law of accelerating returns.
4 See footnote 2.
5 Id.
6 D. Galeon, C. Reedy, Kuzweil Claims That the Singularity Will Happen by 2045, (Futurism)
[Link] , accessed 2017-05-02.
7 D. Galeon, Softbank CEO: The Singularity Will Happen by 2047, (Futurism, 2017-03-01),
[Link] accessed 2017-05-02.
8 S. Russell, P. Norvig, [Link]., Artificial Intelligence. A Modern Approach, Third Edition (Prentice Hall: New Jersey,
2010).
9 K. Schwab, The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond, (World Economic Forum, 2016-01-14),
[Link]
accessed 2017-05-02.
10 H. Kagermann, W. Wahlster, et al., Recommendations for Implementing the Strategic Initiative INDUSTRIE 4.0.
(National Academy of Science and Engineering, 2013)
2
the fundamental roots of the regulation framework per se is obvious. Which of the regulation
alternatives would be the most efficient and just in the context of singularity age’s probability? In
other words, the issue is whether humans are and will remain to be more efficient regulators than
intelligent machines and if not, is it safe to delegate the regulation activities to that kind of artificial
object (or subject).
The first part of the issue is too obvious to consider it in depth. Undisputedly, within the
context of singularity scenario, only intelligent machines have the real potential to decide on
thousands of issues within the fraction of the second; using the unbiased knowledge, wisdom and
understanding of thousands of greatest minds; for a cost of a cup of tea. The second part of the issue
is far more complex.
Singularity scenario may come with the success story of evolution and enhancement in all
fields of human mental and physical activities. However it may also be a story of existential risk,
that we have been warned about by the Future of Life Institute and by an open letter, signed
by more than 8000 other leading opinion leaders and scholars in “ranges from economics, law and
philosophy to computer security, formal methods and, of course, various branches of AI itself”12.
Naturally, besides the welfare enhancing technologies, the cyber security threats also evolve
with the same exponential scope. Indeed, while one narrative touts the benefits of the greatest
technological developments and bright future of cyber dependent opportunities, other warns the
World of cyber-activism (hacktivism), cybercrime, cyber-espionage, cyberwar and cyber-
terrorism13. Even cyber murder may become a reality since cyber-dependent medical technology is
a likely target. The ongoing cyberwar does not require expensive soldiers, arms and ammunition. It
is a war of sophisticated algorithms operating from advanced, lightning-fast computers. It is a war
without any territorial and geographic borders. For these and other reasons cyber security is in urge
of a Manhattan Project – a digital nuclear option, capable of swiftly inflicting grievous damage
while simultaneously safeguarding the cyber systems of its motherland14.
In sum, having introduced the concept of singularity age and related issues, the problem is
that it is unclear what regulation framework should be used to regulate the cyber security in the
context of emerging legal technologies thereof.
Therefore the aim of this paper is to develop the conceptual cyber-security regulation
framework and evaluate it in the context of emerging legal technologies thereof.
Thus, the object of this research is regulation of cyber security
In order to achieve the aim of this research and to solve the problem, these tasks has been
formed:
1) To uncover the status quo of cyber security problem
2) To develop the conceptual cyber-security regulation framework
3) To evaluate the proposed framework in the context of emerging legal technologies
Accordingly, three parts of this paper are presented below. The analysis of the status quo of
cyber security problem is presented in the first part. The second part is dedicated to the
11 R. Leenes, F. Lucivero, ‘Laws on Robots, Laws by Robots, Laws in Robots: Regulating Robot Behaviour by
Design’, Law, Innovation and Technology (2014) 6(2) LIT 194–222.
12 Research Priorities for Robust and Beneficial Artificial Intelligence. An Open Letter. [Link]
letter (accessed 2017-05-02).
13 B.B. Hughes, D. Bohl., et al., ‘ICT/Cyber benefits and costs: Reconciling competing perspectives on the
current and future balance’, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 115 (2017) 117–130.
14 D. Laton, ‘Manhattan_Project.exe: A Nuclear Option for the Digital Age’, 25 Cath. U. J. L. & Tech (2017).
3
development of the conceptual cyber-security regulation framework. Finally, in lieu of conclusions,
the proposed concept is evaluated in the context of emerging legal technologies, thus contributing to
the knowledge, wisdom and understanding of regulation issues in the context of technological
evolution.
It is beyond any reasonable doubt that cyber security of cyber ecosystem has become one the
major threats to the World15. The exponentially increased use of software and digital services with
asymmetrical distribution of security measures, possesses major economic and political threats. To
name just a few, cyberwars, espionage, ransomware, DDoS attacks, blackmail and fraud, phishing,
large data leaks, and other financially or politically motivated attacks have become an exponentially
growing, unsolvable, everyday problem of law and economics. Cybercrimes differ from traditional
crimes, because perpetrators are more difficult to track, economies of scale are larger and it is easier
for cyber criminals to operate on an international scale 16. The threat streams from private data of
individual to the critical infrastructure and governments. There is no immunity. Indeed, the World
has been hacked and the chances of being caught are small.
Some high-profile cyber-attacks are highlighting these risks and costs. In 2013 Target has lost
approximately 40 million credit and debit card accounts, costing Target approximately $250
million. In 2014, a hack at Sony Corp. exposed Hollywood secrets. In 2015, the adult-themed,
extramarital affair website Ashley Madison was hacked exposing the personal information of some
32 million users17. AdultFriendFinder followed with 412 million accounts loss in 2016. 1,5 billion
accounts of Yahoo has been compromised in 2013 and 2014 attacks, LinkedIn has lost 165 million
in 2012, Dropbox – 68 million in 2013 18, etc. The United States government has lost background
investigation records of millions of current, former, and prospective federal employees and
contractors, including the fingerprints of 5.6 million federal employees in 2014 attack that lasted for
several months19. 2016 breaches also included the Department of Homeland Security and the
Federal Bureau of Investigation20.
According to “The Global Risks Report 2016,” from the World Economic Forum, detectable
crimes in cyberspace cost the global economy an estimated 445 billion USD in 2014 21. There were
no signs of slowing down in 2015 and a forecast for 2019 estimates up to 2 trillion USD 22. The
15 World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2016, 11th Edition (2016),
[Link] , accessed 2017-05-01
16 T. Kiseleva, B. Overvest, et al., ‘Cyber Security Risk Assessment for the Economy’, CPB Communication, Dutch
National Cyber Security Centre, (2016, July 6).
17 [Link], ‘The privacy issues presented by the cybersecurity information sharing act’, North Dakota Law
Review, Vol. 91:395 (2015).
18 [Link], [Link], The Worst Data Breaches of All Time, (Tomsguide, 2016-12-14)
[Link] , accessed 2017-05-01.
19 See footnote 17.
20 [Link], Top 10 Security Breaches of 2016, (Tufitech, 2016-12-27), [Link]
breaches-2016/, accessed 2017-05-01.
21 See footnote 15.
22 Cybercrime will cost businesses over $2 trillion by 2019, (Juniper Research, 2015)
[Link] accessed 2017-05-01,
4
trends of cyber security incidents by attack type, time and impact were clearly summarized by IBM
X-Force Threat Intelligence Index 2017 report23 as in Figure 1:
Figure 1: Cyber security incidents by attack type, time and impact (source: IBM X-Force
Threat Intelligence Index 2017 report)
Nevertheless, the problem is much bigger. World is cyber dependent. Airports, cars, hospitals,
stock markets, power grids are run by computers and these computers are shockingly vulnerable to
cyber-terrorist attack. An attack of sufficient strength could destabilize a country’s economic or
military apparatus without the need for armed conflict. This requires a completely different
framework for prevention or response than one for kinetic warfare, where physical actions are taken
against physical targets. That is not to say that casualties in cyberwar are impossible. Cyber attacks
on power grids and communications have the ability to cause kinetic effects directly, damaging
physical infrastructure. For example in March of 2015, Iran launched a cyberattack against
Turkey’s power grid that shut down power systems in over half the nation’s provinces24.
These cyber security risks of cyber dependency raise two main challenges for the legal
systems tailored to regulate the ‘real world’ behaviour. These are the jurisdictional fragmentation
and attribution of behaviour. The first one follows from the global nature of cyberspace. Jurisdiction
of a sovereign state is limited and protected by rules of customary public international law. The
latter follows from the problems in determining the responsibility for harmful conduct in
cyberspace. The asymmetry of the cause-effect relationship in the internet does not allow
distinguishing with ease between participants standing behind an attack – an individual or a
government25.
Typical attempts to improve cybersecurity through regulation involve enhancement of
capabilities to collect and share information about cybersecurity threats. However, cybersecurity
regulation takes place within complex ecosystems, where stakeholders from diverse societies,
having distributed responsibilities, diverse problems and challenges, make it difficult to initiate
collective action. Therefore, cybersecurity is the sea of paradoxes, where the choosing of one
23 Security Intelligence Staff, IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Index 2017, (Security Intelligence, 2017),
[Link] , accessed 2017-05-01.
24 See footnote 14.
25 A. Appazov, Legal Aspects of Cybersecurity, (Justitsministeriet, Copenhagen, 2014).
5
direction can be at the expense of another direction, while the obligation of government is to go
both ways26.
The major cyber security paradox stems from the classical tension between security and
privacy. In order for governments to ensure cybersecurity, they need to access the data of
individuals and organizations for surveillance purposes. That is, capability to preclude or react to
the cyber-attack increases as privacy barriers decrease. Therefore security and privacy are opposite
vectors, although the obligation of government is to ensure both. The heated discussion about the
legitimate balance between national security and information privacy, intensified by the Snowden
leaks, has been going on for several years.27
Another important paradox stems from the realization that the same data that can be used to
improve the quality of life can also be used against citizens, as was revealed by Snowden and other
whistleblowers. Bruijn28 classified some of other most common cybersecurity policies – making
paradoxes in accordance to the policy issues they emerge from. What is the desired level of
protection of systems? How much (cross-border) collaboration is necessary to fight cybersecurity?
Who to fight to? What is the right amount of spending on cybersecurity? What is the right level of
visibility? Who should ensure the cybersecurity of systems? Thus, cyber law is a new, complex and
greatly diversified field of law.
The European Commission has also expressed understanding that there are still gaps across
the EU, notably in terms of national capabilities, coordination in cases of cyber incidents spanning
across borders, and in terms of private sector involvement and preparedness 29. To help address this,
the 2013 EU Cyber Security Strategy asks The European Union Agency for Network and
Information Security 30 to “encourage good practice in information and network security” to assist
and support Member States in developing strong national cyber resilience capabilities, notably by
building expertise on security and resilience of industrial control systems, transport and energy
infrastructure. Thus, 18 European Union Member States have published National Cyber Security
Strategies as a key policy feature, helping them to tackle risks that have the potential to undermine
the achievement of economic and social benefits from cyberspace31.
However, despite the high-sounding wording of the strategies, growing amount of cyber
security cases and research in the field, the problem is far from solved. Cyber attacks remain among
the biggest threats to people, businesses, governments and other institutions. Moreover, the
technology upon which all these strategies and security tools are developed might very soon be
outdated. It is expected to meet 2020 with 24 billion interconnected devices, with different security
techniques and policy requirements applied by producers, thus making security challenges more
26 H. Bruijn, M. Jansen, ‘Building cybersecurity awareness: The need for evidence-based framing strategies’,
Government Information Quarterly 34 (2017) 1–7.
27 [Link], M. Berg, et al., ‘Mass surveillance and technological policy options: Improving security of private
communications’, Computer Standards & Interfaces 50 (2017) 76–82.
28 See footnote 26.
29 High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Cybersecurity Strategy of the
European Union: An Open, Safe and Secure Cyberspace, (Joint Communication to the European Parliament, the
Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. JOIN(2013) 1 final -
7/2/2013).
30 The European Union Agency for Network and Information Security (ENISA) is a centre of network and information
security expertise for the EU, its Member States, the private sector and Europe’s citizens ([Link])
31 European Union Agency for Network and Information Security, An evaluation Framework for National Cyber
Security Strategies, (2014).
6
difficult to fulfil as it is hard to develop a generic "one fits all" security strategy or model 32. Clearly,
the cyber-dependent World needs the Cyber Manhattan Project.
Since security and privacy are at the opposite ends of the same problem, the digital nuclear
option may be developed either from the perspective of security or privacy.
The first option involves a breakthrough in computing power and intelligence of the
technologies used for security of data-driven world. However, such evolution would also open new
possibilities for the development of hacking tools, as faster and smarter technologies will be
accessible to the wrongdoers too. Moreover, technological singularity may not be reached in
another 30 years. Therefore, security perspective option will not be accessible soon enough and
(most likely) will not diminish the cyber security risks at the speed and scope needed for it to be
treated as a nuclear option.
The second option is to reinvent the privacy law. This perspective has some major deviations
from the technological advancement option described above. Security and privacy are opposite
vectors, thus abilities to preclude or react to the cyber-attacks increase as privacy barriers decrease,
even with the status quo in computation power and intelligence of the technologies. However,
technological advancement is exponential, while the development of privacy law remains linear and
slow. Thus the governments are urged to find a way for self-governance or to speed up, at a major
scale, the regulatory procedures and decisions thereof. Finally, the law may be changed with the
stroke of a regular pen. Therefore privacy perspective option is accessible and it may diminish the
cyber security risks even with the status quo in computation power and intelligence of the
technologies. Moreover, it may solve an ancillary issue of the governance efficiency.
Of course, there is an undefined set of third options, encompassing a mix of both:
advancement of technologies while sustainably reaching for a trust-free governance system that
would allow decreasing cyber security related privacy barriers.
Economic theories are increasingly used to explain cyber-security problems. In this vain, the
field has been studied using such concepts as behavioural economics, asymmetric information,
externalities and market failures framework 33. Based on these theories, many various new
behavioural models, networks and action research methodological advances in cybercrime and
privacy economics are developed34.
According to the general theory of regulation, regulators should intervene where market fails,
aiming to fix these failures35. Market failures and resulting costs are the centerpiece of Transaction
Cost Economics – one of the dominant economic theories of the XXI century 36, having a single
transaction as a unit of analysis. Transaction unit is described as a process of exchanging scarce
32 A.R. Sfar, E. Natalizio, [Link]., A Roadmap for Security Challenges in Internet of Things, Digital Communications
and Networks, [Link]
33 N. Jentzsch, ‘State-of-the-Art of the Economics of Cyber-Security and Privacy’, IPACSO - Innovation Framework
for ICT Security Deliverable, No. 4.1 (2016); [Link], ‘The economics of cyber-security: Principles and policy
options’, Proceedings of a Workshop on Deterring Cyberattacks: Informing Strategies and Developing Options for U.S.
Policy, The National Academies Press. (2010); [Link], [Link], R. Anderson, ‘The economics of online crime’,
Journal of Economic Perspectives 23(3): 3-20 (2009); H. Manshaei, Q. Zhu, [Link]., ‘Game Theory Meets Network
Security and Privacy’, ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR), Volume 45 Issue 3, (June, 2013).
34 Id. N. Jentzsch.
35 A.C. Pigou, The Economics of Welfare, Fourth Edition, (Macmilan & Co., London, 1932).
7
Life Liberty
Level of Regulation
resources37. This exchange is a result of ones actions, caused due to some behavioral incentives
(motives). Accordingly, transaction unit has its motive (incentive), action (manifest of the will
through activity or silence) and result elements, as shown in Figure 2.
Level of Transaction
Transaction
Needs Changes
Actions
(incentives) (results)
Thus, market failures framework, developed mostly by Williamson 38, may be used for the
analysis of regulation issues. The centrepiece of market failures framework is an illustrative
Transaction Costs Factors
39
proposition known as the Coase Theorem . By using an example of crop damage caused by
straying cattle, Coase proposed, that:
it is necessary to know whether the damaging business is liable or not for damage
caused since without the establishment of this initial delimitation of rights there can
be no marked transactions to transfer and recombine them. But the ultimate result
(which maximizes the value of production) is independent of the legal position if the
pricing system is assumed to work without cost40
The theorem has been stated in numerous ways and is subject to an enormous amount of
theoretical and empirical controversy41. The general claims of this theory may be summarized by (i)
“efficiency hypothesis” i.e. regardless of how rights are initially assigned, the resulting allocation of
resources will be efficient, and (ii) “invariance hypothesis”, i.e. the final allocation of resources will
be invariant under alternative assignments of rights 42. In other words, under the assumption of zero
transaction cost, the outcome of transactions will be efficient regardless the legal regulation. That is,
if transactions are costless, the allocation of rights or obligations is irrelevant. The transactions will
always be efficient, legal rights – perfect and legal certainty – absolute. Accordingly, if law is
irrelevant and the outcomes of transactions are always efficient, the state of zero transaction cost
also means the state without the need of laws and lawyers. The state of self-governance.
Realizing that such proposition is too naïve to consider seriously, the state of zero transaction
costs has always been seen as utopic idea - “a very unrealistic assumption”, according to Coase43.
36 For exhaustive analysis of the transaction cost theory, its elements and developments see, for example, [Link],
‘Recent Developments in Transaction Cost Economics’, EE2 Working Paper. Resource Markets. No. WP-RM-18,
(2010), 1-47; [Link], [Link], ‘Transaction cost economics: An Assessment of Empirical Research in the
Social Sciences’, Business and Politics. Vol. 10, No. 1, (2008), pp. 1-85; [Link], [Link], [Link], ‘Make,
Buy, Or Ally: A Transaction Cost Theory Meta-Analysis’, The Academy of Management Journal. Vol. 49, No. 3,
(2006), 519-543; [Link], [Link], ‘The Impact of Empirical Tests of Transaction Cost Economics on the
Debate on the Nature of the Firm’, Strategic Management Journal. Vol. 27, No. 5, (2006), 461-47, and others.
37 R.A. Posner, ‘The Law and Economics of Contract Interpretation’, John M. Olin Program in Law & Economics
Working Paper, 2nd ser, No. 229 (2004) pp. 1-51.; O. E. Williamson, Markets and Hierarchies: Analysis and Antitrust
Implications: A Study in the Economics of Internal Organization, (London: Free Press, 1975).
38 [Link], ‘The Economics of Governance: Framework and Implications’, in Langlois, R. (Ed.). Economics
as a Process: Essays in the New Institutional Economics, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986).
39 [Link], ‘The Problem of Social Cost’, The Journal of Law and Economics. Vol. 3, No. 1, (1960), 1-44.
40 Id. pp 8.
41 [Link], [Link], The Coase Theorem, The Encyclopedia of Law and Economics, (Edward Elgar Publishing,
1999)
42 Id.
43 See footnote 39.
8
Indeed, neither science, nor fiction has ever demonstrated complete and persuasive view of what it
would be to live in the world where there is no need to have legislative, executive and judicial
branches of government. Thus, the real message of Coase was to study the World with positive
transaction costs44 – the World with the market failures.
Transaction costs may also be seen as the difference between perfect world and real world.
These costs have also been defined as the “costs of running the economic system”45 and
conceptually equated to “frictions in physical systems”46, constituting the major economic efficiency
problem47. Moreover, since efficiency and justice coincide in many ways 48, the transaction costs are
a legal problem, too. Thus diminishing of the transaction costs is the prime aim of regulation and
regulators49.
In order to diminish the risks of these transaction costs in the future, transacting one has to
invest in pre-transaction research, analysis of data and development the protection instruments
(legal or physical). These costs of transacting are incurred ExAnte.
Of course, the more investments are made at the pre-transaction stage, the less is the risk of
post-transaction breach. However, human body, mind and resources have their limits, which
together with future uncertainty makes it impossible to determine complete set of risks and to
employ preemptive means to avoid all of them. Moreover, every symbol or action (even silence)
used in the pre-transaction process has its own hermeneutical risk, which might be the source of
misinterpretation and hence error in the enforcement procedure. Lastly, pre-transaction investments
are based on the assumptions about future events, which are impossible or too costly to determine
with absolute certainty. Despite the fact that future risks are only probable, the investments in
security measures are inevitable. Due to these shortages, the transacting one may decide to absorb
the costs of incomplete transaction50. Accordingly, most of transactions are incomplete and not self-
enforceable due to the risk of uncertainty, opportunistic behaviour of others or enforcement errors.
If ExAnte stage protection fails, the parties are forced towards the process of adaptation
through the state enforcement tools and/or sunk cost. In any of the scenarios the parties suffer from
failures of protection in pre-transaction stage. These are the ExPost transaction costs.
44 [Link], [Link], ‘Transaction Cost Economics’, prepared for Gibbons R., Roberts J, eds. Handbook of
Organizational Economics, (Princeton University Press, 2012), 1-55.
45 K.J. Arrow, ‘The organization of economic activity: issues pertinent to the choice of market versus non-market
allocations’, in The analysis and evaluation of public expenditures: the PPB system; a compendium of papers
submitted to the Subcommittee on Economy in Government of the Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United
States, 1, Washington, D.C. (Government Printing Office, 1969), pp. 47–64.
46 See footnote 38.
47 [Link], ‘Transaction Costs and Institutions' Efficiency: A Critical Approach’, American Journal of Economics
and Sociology, 71 (2012), 254–276.
48 R.Šimašius, Teisinis pliuralizmas, dissertation, (The Law University of Lithuania. Vilnius, 2002).
49 See footnote 39 and 44.
50 [Link], [Link], [Link], ‘Simplicity and Complexity in Contracts’, John M. Olin Program in Law
and Economics Working Paper. No. 93, The Law School, The University of Chicago, (2000), 1-45.; [Link], [Link],
‘Foundations of incomplete contracts’, The Review of Economic Studies. Vol. 66, No. 1, (1999), 115-138; C. [Link],
‘Bargaining in the Shadow of the Lawsuit: A Social Norms Theory of Incomplete Contracts’, Minnesota Legal Studies
Research Paper. No. 08-46, (2009), 1-38; [Link], ‘A Theory of Contract Law under Conditions of Radical Judicial
Error’, John M. Olin Program in Law & Economics Working Paper. 2nd ser. No. 80. The Law School. The University
of Chicago, (1999), 1-39; [Link], ‘The Law and Economics of Contract Interpretation’, John M. Olin Program in
Law & Economics Working Paper. 2nd ser. No. 229. The Law School. The University of Chicago, (2004), 1-51 ;
[Link], ‘A Model of Negotiation, Not Bargaining: Explaining Incomplete Contracts’, Harvard John M. Olin
Discussion Paper. No. 324. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Law School, (2001), 1-52.
9
According to Richard A. Posner51, Transaction Costs (TC) are the sum of ExAnte costs (x) and
risk (y) that ExPost costs (z) might occur. Thus the sum of transaction costs might be expressed as:
In the zero transaction costs (ideal) world, there are no ExPost transaction costs (y = 0). In
this case y * z = 0, thus there is no need of safety measures, thus x = 0 and TC = 0. Hence,
transactions are self-enforcing; the demand for regulation and enforcement services disappears. The
market is works without a cost and need for law or lawyers. However, since the zero transaction
cost state is deemed to be utopic, a state without ExPost transaction costs (y = 0) means that
protection in pre-transaction stage is absolutely complete, with perfect rationality and full certainty
of a future. This is a complete pre-crime society.
In either way, costless society is indeed a very unrealistic assumption and variables that
causes market failures has to be taken into account solving regulation issues. These variables (either
ExAnte or ExPost) were identified and elaborated by Williamson 52 (and others) and may be
summarized into such groups:
1) Bounded rationality, which describes the limited cognitive competences and lingual
limits of people53;
2) Opportunism, which describes the self-interested nature of people that is sometimes led
by the element of the guile in transaction54;
3) Uncertainty, which describes the future state of nature, price and demand levels,
innovations, legal and behavioural instabilities and many other characteristics, which
are unclear and which make it impossible to predict the outcome of one’s promises 55.
Uncertainty and bounded rationality are sometimes characterized as informational and
cognitive inability56.
4) Asset specificity, which usually describes six types of specific assets 57 that create critical
dependency on the scarce resources, and identity of the transacting actor58.
Bounded rationality and uncertainty make it impossible to evaluate all the risks related to
relevant transactions and safeguards at the ExAnte stage. Thus all transactions are incomplete59.
Opportunism and asset specificity make all transactions not self – enforcing, which in turn creates
the demand for government system (i.e. laws and lawyers). These transaction cost variables,
causing the market failures and thus demanding regulation, may be visualized as in Figure 3 below.
51 Id., [Link].
52 [Link], ‘The Economics of Governance: Framework and Implications’, in R. Langlois, ed., Economics as a
Process: Essays in the New Institutional Economics, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986).
53 H. Simon, Administrative Behavior, (New York: Free Press, 1976), p. xxviii; also see footnote 36, and Id.
54 see footnote 36, S. Ruester, and footnote 52.
55 see footnote 52; and [Link], ‘Comparative Economic Organization: The Analysis of Discrete Structural
Alternatives’, Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol. 36, No. 2, (1991), p. 76
56 [Link], ‘Core Competencies of the New Industrial Organization’, Journal of Manufacturing Technology
Management, Vol. 22, No. 4, (2011), 422 – 443.
57 These are: (i) site specificity; (ii) physical asset specificity; (iii) dedicated assets; (iv) human asset specificity; (v)
intangible assets; (vi) temporal specificity.
58 See footnote 36, S. Ruester, and footnote 52
59 See footnote 36, [Link], and footnote 50, [Link], [Link], C. [Link].
10
Human factors Bounded rationality Opportunism Human factors Bounded rationality Opportunism
Transacting atmosphere
Transacting atmosphere
Environmental factors: Uncertainty Asset specificity Environmental factors: Uncertainty Asset specificity
Since the major task of regulation is to diminish transaction costs, with regard to ExAnte costs
it implies the duty to foster access to data and computing power to process it (thus diminishing
perils of uncertainty and bounded rationality). With regard to ExPost – the duty to foster
accessibility to governance system and diminish dependency on scarce resources (thus diminishing
the perils of opportunism and asset specificity).
Fixing of market failures is done through regulation – laws made by regulators using the
powers delegated to them by the society. The discretion limits are usually analyzed through the lens
of fundamental values of the society, such as right to life, liberty and pursuit of happiness
(property).
Within the tri-tier institutional structure of society 61 and ontology of law62, the conceptual
holistic model of regulation, integrating fundamental values of society, transaction and variables of
transaction cost, may be developed (see Figure 4).
Pursuit of
Life Liberty Happiness /
Property
Level of Regulation
Legislative /
Laws and
Executive /
Regulations
Judiciary
Level of Transaction
Transaction
Needs Changes
Actions
(incentives) (results)
Bounded
Opportunism
Rationality
Pursuit of
Life Liberty Happiness /
Failure of Interpretation
Property
Abuse of Power
Level of Regulation
Level of Transaction
Transaction
Legislative /
Needs
Actions
Changes
Laws and
(incentives) (results)
Executive /
Regulations Bounded
Failure of Interpretation
Opportunism
Judiciary
Rationality
Level of Transaction
Transaction
Needs Changes
Actions
(incentives) (results)
Bounded
Opportunism
Rationality
Therefore, it should be emphasized that most of the cyber security strategies and regulation
models rest on the human reactions and decisions, integrating the risk of human nature to err.
Indeed, only 48% percent of data security breaches are caused by acts of malicious intent. Human
error or system failure accounts for the rest.65 Verizon 2016 Data Breach Investigations Report66
reveals that cybercriminals are continuing to exploit human nature as they rely on familiar attack
patterns such as phishing. 95 percent of breaches and 86 percent of security incidents fall into nine
patterns. Sixty-three (63) percent of confirmed data breaches involve using weak, default or stolen
passwords. Most attacks exploit known vulnerabilities that have never been patched despite patches
being available for months, or even years. In fact, the top 10 known vulnerabilities account for 85
percent of successful exploit. All findings boil down to the human element. Indeed, misaligned
incentives of human being is more often a source of information insecurity, rather than the lack of
suitable technical protections67.
Unfortunately, most of the cyber defence systems tend to rely on humans who try to anticipate
what the other human might do before they do it. However, neither kinetical nor digital firewalls
will stop a determined hacker, exploiting vulnerabilities of the humans. Post-breach reactions also
tend to rely on humans, who are dealing with jurisdictional fragmentation and attribution of
behaviour. On either stage, government faces additional so-called “Going Dark” problem, which
refers to situations in which government has legally obtained the right to search certain devices but
68 J. M. Traylor, ‚Shedding Light on the „Going Dark“ Problem and the Encryption Debate‘, University of Michigan
Journal of Law Reform. Vol. 50:2 (2017).
69 Id.
70 Id.
71 See footnote 17.
72 USA v. In the Matter of the Search of an Apple iPhone Seized During the Execution of a Search Warrant on a
Black Lexus IS300, United States District Court, C.D. California, No. ED 15-0451 M 2016 WL 618401.
73 See footnote 68.
74 Z. R. al-Hussein, San Bernardino Shooting: UN chief warns of implications of Apple-FBI row, (The Press-
Enterprise. Associated Press, 2016-03-04), [Link]
implications-of-apple-fbi-row/, accessed 2017-05-01.
75 P. Laungaramsri, ‚Mass surveillance and the militarization of cyberspace in post-coup Thailand‘, ASEAS – Austrian
Journal of South East Asian Studies, 9(2), (2016), 195-214.
14
However, this option would also require a trust-free governance of the data collected. A
cryptographic governance system, which should be organized very much alike blockchain - both
autonomously and in a networked-based collective (distributed) nature, without any point of central
control or single point of failure. Such technology, merging a cryptography with governance on a
digital platform, if possible at all, might lead to the trust-free governance, which embraces the
emerging digital lifestyle. Intelligent machines can be trained to constantly analyze patterns in order
to identify any deviation in it, much like a human counterpart does, just much faster, cheaper and in
higher details of variations. Moreover, it may constantly use existing data to learn and enhance its
functionalities and cyber warfare strategies. Using process mining methodology 76 for transaction
pattern analysis, such system could be shown as in Figure 6.
Pursuit of
Life Liberty Happiness /
Property
Analyzes / Models
Supports / Controls
Level of Regulation
Legislative / Discovery
Laws and
Executive
Legal /
models Transaction logs
Regulations Conformance
Judiciary
Enhancement
Records
Level of Transaction transactions
Transaction (needs, actions,
results)
Needs Changes
Actions
(incentives) (results)
Singularity
supports, software system
Bounded controls,
Opportunism
Rationality models,
analyzes
Uncertainty Asset Specificity
Under this model all of the transacting data possible to collect under circumstances (from
subjective to objective data) would go to the trust-free data base, supported and controlled by the
trust-free software system. Trained within the standards of fundamental values (life, liberty and
pursuit of happiness), it would autonomously analyze and model legal framework to prevent cyber
security threats as much as possible, constantly learning and enhancing at the same speed and scope
as the everyday transactions evolves. The law might become smart, i.e. individualized and
constantly adopting in the real time situations.
This proposition is in line with the suggestion of that artificial intelligence presents a solution
to the issues of human error and slow response time 77. An artificially intelligent machine that is
76 W.M.P. van der Aalst, Process mining: Discovery, Conformance and Enhancement of Business Processe, ( New
York: Springer, 2011), pp. 1-352; W.M.P. van der Aalst, et al., ‚Process Mining Manifesto‘, in BPM 2011 Workshops
proceedings. - Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing. Springer-Verlag, (2012), pp. 1-19.
77 See footnote 14
15
capable of autonomously learning and performing defensive and offensive strategies would be
invaluable in the digital age. The issue remains – is the possibility of such framework a very
unrealistic assumption in the context of developments in legal technologies?
IN LIEU OF CONCLUSIONS:
THE GENESIS OF LEGAL TECHNOLOGIES
The rapid and exponential growth of data, its computation and storage capacity has led to the
recent rise of legal technologies (LegalTech) and evolution of new search, drafting and control
techniques. The trend of this industry is promising. The list of LegalTech companies on AngelList 78
has been extended from 15 companies in 2009 to 1532 companies in 2017. However, despite the
recent industrial growth, the idea of artificial intelligence use in law is far from being new in the
academic discourse.
Shortly after Konrad Zuse had built his first programmable computer in 1941, the idea of
artificial intelligence began its shift from fiction to science. Started by seminal McCulloch and Pitt79
paper “A Logical Calculus of the Ideas Immanent in Nervous Activity”; followed by “Turing test” 80
and Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence in 1956, the field of artificial
intelligence studies has been widely accepted as a field of science rather than fiction, and has
captured some of the greatest minds since. At the same time lawyers started their discussion on the
use of artificial intelligence in law81.
The works of Loevinger82, Allen83, Mehl84, for example, could be regarded as the introduction
to scientific and practical researches in this field, but the onset of application of artificial
intelligence in law is usually related to the article by Buchanan and Headrick 85 ”Some speculation
about artificial intelligence and legal reasoning“
The practical experiments of synthesis of artificial intelligence and legal processes on the
ground of these conceptual ideas did not take long. Such were the projects of McCarty 86 TAXMAN
or Stamper87 LEGOL. Of course, the interdisciplinary scientific researches continued developing in
88 D.C. Hafner, ‘Representing knowledge in an information retrieval system’, in [Link], et al., eds., Information
Retrieval Research, (London: Butterworths, 1981).
89 A. Gardner, ‘The design of a legal analysis program’, AAAI-83, 1983.
90 E.L. Rissland, ‘Examples in Legal Reasoning: Legal Hypotheticals’, IJCAI. 1983.
91 M.J. Sergot, et al. ‘The British Nationality Act as a logic program’, Communications of the ACM 29.5 (1986): 370-
386.
92 I. Asimov, Visit to the World’s Fair of 2014, (N.Y. Times, 1964-08-16),
[Link] , accessed 2017-05-01.
93 [Link], [Link], ‘Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import’, in [Link], et al., eds., Singularity
Hypotheses: A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment, (Berlin: Springer, 2012), 15-42
94 [Link], Digital doppelgängers: Building an army of you, (New Scientist, 2012)
[Link] accessed
2017-05-01.
95 See for e.g. M. Bay, ‘Survey Shows Surge in E-Discovery Work at Law Firms and Corporations’, Law Tech. News
(July 6, 2012); E. Koblentz, ‘Judge Carter OKs Peck’s Predictive Coding Decision in ‘Da Silva Moore,’ Law Tech.
News (Apr. 26, 2012), W. D. Henderson, R. M. Zahorsky, ‘Paradigm Shift’, A.B.A. J., July 2011; D. R. Mountain,
‘Disrupting Conventional Law Firm Business Models Using Document Assembly’, 15 Int’l J.L. & Info. Tech. 170
(2007); E. J. Goldstein, ‘Kiiac’s Contract Drafting Software: Ready for the Rapids?’, Law Tech. News (May 18, 2012)
and others.
96 See for e.g. DoNotPay, [Link] , accessed 2017-05-01; R. Price, This chatbot fought
parking fines and now it's helping refugees, (World Economic Forum, 2017-03-07),
[Link]
utm_content=buffere3b83&utm_medium=social&utm_source=[Link]&utm_campaign=buffer , accessed 2017-05-
01.
17
document creation or review97, dynamic contracts or compliance management 98 to an algorithms
that predicts decisions of European Court of Human Rights 99 or US Supreme Court decisions100. In
2012 New York District Court issued the judicial opinion in a pending federal case, Da Silva Moore
v. Publicis Groupe, where the use of e-discovery has been officially endorsed in the US:
“Computer-assisted review appears to be better than the available alternatives, and thus should be
used in appropriate cases.”101
Accordingly, academically trained attorneys are increasingly being replaced by technology to
analyze evidence and assess it for relevance in investigations, lawsuits, compliance efforts, and
more102. For example Law firm Baker & Hostetler has announced that they are employing IBM’s AI
Ross103 to handle their bankruptcy practice, which at the moment consists of nearly 50 lawyers.104
One of the primary reasons for such increase in LegalTech is due to the increased accessibility
to neural networking models and other probabilistic algorithms. Further automation of law is
streaming especially to quantitative legal prediction 105, machine learning106, and other fields of
scientific and practical legal problems. Professor Richard Susskind predicts unprecedented upheaval
in a profession where the working practices of some lawyers and judges have changed little since
the time of Charles Dickens. According to him, there will be anything dramatic, but there will be an
incremental transformations in areas like the way legal documents are reviewed, legal risk is
assessed and the way decisions are made107.
Taking into account the probability that artificial intelligence might transcend the human one,
the trend of legal technologies development allows to hope for a universal framework of cyber
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CASES
1. Monique DA SILVA MOORE, et al., v. PUBLICIS GROUPE & MSL Group, 868 [Link].2d
137 (2012), No. 11 Civ. 1279(ALC)(AJP). United States District Court, S.D. New York. June
15, 2012.
2. USA v. In the Matter of the Search of an Apple iPhone Seized During the Execution of a
Search Warrant on a Black Lexus IS300, United States District Court, C.D. California, No.
ED 15-0451 M 2016 WL 618401.
SANTRAUKA
REIKŠMINIAI ŽODŽIAI
Reguliavimas, kibernetinis saugumas, singuliarumas, teisės technologijos, sandorių sąnaudų
teorija.
23