Retirement Planning Insights for 2025
Retirement Planning Insights for 2025
Guide to
Retirement
2025
Page reference GTR 2
OUT OF
RETIREMENT YOUR
CONTROL
Longevity
SOME
CONTROL
40%
71%
29%
30%
52% 23%
20% 44%
20% 39% 15%
31%
10%
10% 19% 6% 17%
20% 6%
12%
6% 6% 1%
4%
0%
Age: 85 90 95 100 85 90 95 100 85 90 95 100 85 90 95 100
Women
Women Men
Men At At least
least oneone
of of
a a Both
Both members
members ofof
aa
couple
couple couple
couple
Source (chart): Social Security Administration, Period Life Table, 2021 (published in the 2024 OASDI Trustees Report); American Academy of
Actuaries and Society of Actuaries, Actuaries Longevity Illustrator, http://www.longevityillustrator.org/ (accessed December 2024),
J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Life expectancy probabilities for same-sex couples GTR 5
Note: Sex assigned at birth; categories available in standard Social Security life expectancy tables.
Source (chart): Social Security Administration, Period Life Table, 2021 (published in the 2024 OASDI Trustees Report); American Academy of
Actuaries and Society of Actuaries, Actuaries Longevity Illustrator, http://www.longevityillustrator.org/ (accessed December 2024),
J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Managing expectations of ability to work GTR 6
Expectations of workers vs. retirees Reasons for retiring earlier than planned
Retirement Landscape
Outdated skills 8%
20%
0% Wanted to do
Current workers' Experience of something else 19%
expectations actual retirees
Early retirement
Median retirement age: package or incentive 13%
Expected: 65
Actual: 62 0% 25% 50%
Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, Greenwald Research: 2024 Retirement Confidence Survey. Individuals may have given more
than one answer. Latest available data as of December 31, 2024.
Older Americans in the workforce GTR 7
0%
2003 2013 2023 2033
Total civilian
population 65+ 34m 43m 58m 72m
3 Retire later
• Majority retire after age 65 vs. before age 65
for fully-retired households
Note: For households that retired age 60-69. The spending surge was only apparent for households with pre-retirement income <$150,000.
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Three New Spending Surprises, 2024; credit card debt percentage: internal select data from
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively “Chase”) including select Chase check, credit and debit card and electronic
payment transactions from 2013 to 2022. Inflation adjusted to April 2023 dollars. Information that would have allowed identification of
specific customers was removed prior to the analysis.
Fostering well-being in retirement GTR 9
Source: PNAS.org, Vol 116, No. 4, Leading a Meaningful Life at Older Ages, January 22, 2019, Volume 8, Article 517226; Journal of Gerontology,
2019, 65:634–639, Investing in Happiness: The Gerontological Perspective, by Andrew Steptoe; PRB.org. online resource library, Happily Ever
After? Research Offers Clues on What Shapes Happiness and Life Satisfaction after Age 65, website as of October 18, 2023.
Income replacement needs vary by household income GTR 10
104%
95%
89% 86%
120% 83% 81% 78% 76% 71% Income replacement rate
67% 63% 60% 56% 55%
Saving
100%
5% Changes in
11% 14% 17% 19% expenditures, taxes
22% 24%
29% and pre-retirement
33% 37%
80% 40% 44% savings
45%
64%
53% Social Security benefit
47% 42% 40% 37%
60% 35% 33%
29% Amount required from
26%
24% 21% private and employer
18% 14%
sources
40%
20% 42% 42% 43% 43% 44% 44% 43% 42% 41% 40% 41%
39% 39% 39%
0%
$30k $40k $50k $60k $70k $80k $90k $100k $125k $150k $175k $200k $250k $300k
Pre-retirement income
Source: Longitudinal Chase data (2016-2023), inflation adjusted. Chase data includes internal select data from JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.
and its affiliates (collectively “Chase”) including select Chase check, cash, credit and debit card, and electronic payment transactions from
January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2023. Additional information on J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s data privacy standards available at
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/mod/insights/retirement-insights/gtr-privdisc/. Social Security benefits uses
observed Chase household inflows. Percentages and values may not sum due to rounding. J.P. Morgan Asset Management, 2025.
Retirement savings checkpoints Household income ≤$90k
Annual savings rate: 5% GTR 11
This analysis assumes you would like to maintain an equivalent lifestyle in retirement.
Household income is assumed to be gross income (before taxes and savings).
How to use:
• Go to the intersection of your age and your closest current household income.
• This is the amount you should have saved today.
• Example: For a 40-year-old with a household income of $50,000, your current savings should be $105,000.
To personalize your plan, use an online calculator or discuss your circumstances with a financial professional.
Source: This chart is for illustrative purposes only and must not be relied upon to make investment decisions. J.P. Morgan Asset
Management’s (JPMAM) model is based on proprietary Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions returns and an 80% confidence level.
Portfolios are described as equity/bond percentages (e.g., a 40/60 portfolio is 40% equities and 60% bonds). Assumptions include
household income replacement rates shown on page 10. Consult with a financial professional for a more personalized assessment.
Allocations, assumptions and expected returns are not meant to represent JPMAM performance. Given the complex risk/reward trade-offs
involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. References
to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio
may achieve. J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Retirement savings checkpoints Household income ≥$100k
Annual savings rate: 10%
GTR 12
This analysis assumes you would like to maintain an equivalent lifestyle in retirement.
Household income is assumed to be gross income (before taxes and savings).
How to use:
• Go to the intersection of your age and your closest current household income.
• This is the amount you should have saved today.
• Example: For a 40-year-old with a household income of $100,000, your current savings should be $200,000.
To personalize your plan, use an online calculator or discuss your circumstances with a financial professional.
Source: This chart is for illustrative purposes only and must not be relied upon to make investment decisions. J.P. Morgan Asset
Management’s (JPMAM) model is based on proprietary Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions returns and an 80% confidence level.
Portfolios are described as equity/bond percentages (e.g., a 40/60 portfolio is 40% equities and 60% bonds). Assumptions include
household income replacement rates shown on page 10. Consult with a financial professional for a more personalized assessment.
Allocations, assumptions and expected returns are not meant to represent JPMAM performance. Given the complex risk/reward trade-offs
involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. References
to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio
may achieve. J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Annual savings needed if starting today Household income ≤$90k GTR 13
How to use:
• Go to the intersection of your current age and your closest current household income.
• This is the percentage of your current household income to contribute annually going forward if
you have $0 saved for retirement today.
• Example: A 40-year-old with household income of $50,000 and $0 saved for retirement today may
need to save 18% every year until retirement.
Source: This chart is for illustrative purposes only and must not be relied upon to make investment decisions. J.P. Morgan Asset
Management’s (JPMAM) model is based on proprietary Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions returns and an 80% confidence level.
Portfolios are described as equity/bond percentages (e.g., a 40/60 portfolio is 40% equities and 60% bonds). Assumptions include
household income replacement rates shown on page 10. Consult with a financial professional for a more personalized assessment.
Allocations, assumptions and expected returns are not meant to represent JPMAM performance. Given the complex risk/reward trade-offs
involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. References
to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio
may achieve. J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Annual savings needed if starting today Household income ≥$100k GTR 14
How to use:
• Go to the intersection of your current age and your closest current household income.
• This is the percentage of your current household income to contribute annually going forward if
you have $0 saved for retirement today.
• Example: A 40-year-old with household income of $100,000 and $0 saved for retirement today
may need to save 22% every year until retirement.
Source: This chart is for illustrative purposes only and must not be relied upon to make investment decisions. J.P. Morgan Asset
Management’s (JPMAM) model is based on proprietary Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions returns and an 80% confidence level.
Portfolios are described as equity/bond percentages (e.g., a 40/60 portfolio is 40% equities and 60% bonds). Assumptions include
household income replacement rates shown on page 10. Consult with a financial professional for a more personalized assessment.
Allocations, assumptions and expected returns are not meant to represent JPMAM performance. Given the complex risk/reward trade-offs
involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. References
to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio
may achieve. J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Benefit of saving and investing early GTR 15
$100,000
$50,000
$0
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Age
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. Compounding is the increasing value of assets due to
investment return earned on both principal and prior investment gains. The above example is for illustrative purposes only and not
indicative of any investment.
The benefits of auto-escalation GTR 16
$2,000,000
Escalates by 1% annually from 3% 73% Wage growth: 2.4%
until capping at 10%
Assumed annual employer
match: 100% of employee
$1,500,000 10% contribution up to 5%
Consistent 3% contribution
19%
$2.1M Investment return: 7.25%
71%
$1,000,000
13%
13%
$930K
$500,000 74%
Return
$0
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Contribution
Individual is assumed to retire at the end of age 65. Growth of portfolio is tax deferred; ending portfolio may be subject to tax.
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. The above example is for illustrative purposes only and
not indicative of any investment.
Tax implications for retirement savings by account type GTR 17
Pre-tax 401(k)/
Traditional IRA
(Taxed as ordinary income)
Saving
Retirement accounts:
Roth 401(k)/ Taxes generally apply
Roth IRA to contributions or
(For qualified withdrawals) withdrawals. Most
withdrawals must
be qualified to avoid
After-tax 401(k)/
tax penalties.2
non-deductible
Traditional IRA (Investment returns taxed
as ordinary income)
Federal taxes; states may differ. This is not intended to be individual tax advice. Consult your tax professional.
1Income and other restrictions may apply to contributions. Tax penalties usually apply for early withdrawals. Qualified withdrawals are
generally those taken over age 59½; qualification requirements for amounts converted to a Roth from a traditional account may differ; for
some account types, such as Roth accounts, contributions that are withdrawn may be qualified. See IRS Publications 590 and 560 for more
information. 2Withdrawals from after-tax 401(k) and non-deductible IRAs must be taken on a pro-rata basis including contributions and
earnings growth. For non-deductible IRAs, all Traditional IRAs must be aggregated when calculating the amount of pro-rata contributions
and earnings growth. 3There are eligibility requirements. Qualified medical expenses include items such as prescriptions, teeth cleaning
and eyeglasses and contacts for a medical reason. A 20% tax penalty applies on non-qualified distributions prior to age 65. After age 65,
taxes must be paid on non-qualified distributions. See IRS Publication 502 for details.
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Diversified sources of retirement funding GTR 18
Pre-tax 401(k)/
Taxable withdrawals
(ordinary income)3
Traditional IRA
This is not intended to be individual tax advice; consult your tax professional.
1Must have a qualifying high-deductible health plan to make contributions. Funds in the HSA may be withdrawn tax free for qualified medical
expenses unless a credit or deduction for medical expenses is claimed. After age 65 funds also may be withdrawn at ordinary income tax
rates without penalty for any reason.
2Subject to 5-year Roth account holding period and age requirements.
3Withdrawal of non-deductible contributions from a traditional IRA are not taxable.
Pre-tax 401(k)/
diversification a priority to
Saving
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 7072-75275 80
Age
Getting started
8 Taxable account
Start with emergency
savings to weather spending
and income shocks
7 IRA3
throughout the year and
make sure to take advantage
Saving
Maximize
Defined Contribution savings to maximize employer match
employer 2
(if available)
match
Start here 1 Emergency reserve (see “Annual emergency reserves” on page 21)
1This assumes that a diversified portfolio may earn 7.25% over the long term. Actual returns may be higher or lower. Generally, consider
making additional payments on loans with a higher interest rate than your long-term expected investment return.
2Must have a high-deductible health insurance plan that is eligible to be paired with an HSA. Those taking Social Security benefits age 65 or
older and those who are on Medicare are ineligible. Tax penalties apply for non-qualified distributions prior to age 65; consult IRS
Publication 502 or your tax professional.
3Income limits may apply for IRAs. If ineligible for these, consider a non-deductible IRA or an after-tax 401(k) contribution. Individual
22
pay for these uncertainties
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, 2023; longitudinal Chase data (2022-2023) of those households with monthly income, which may include wage income,
unemployment, etc. Chase data includes internal select data from JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively “Chase”) including select Chase
check, cash, credit and debit card and electronic payment transactions from January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023. Additional information on J.P. Morgan Asset
Management’s data privacy standards available at https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/mod/insights/retirement-insights/gtr-privdisc/.
Spending shocks are calculated monthly and include those months when monthly spending is 25% above the previous 12 months’ median spending and the
25% excess spending amount could not be funded by that month’s income. Income shocks are calculated monthly and include those months when monthly
income is 25% less than the previous 12 months’ median income and that month’s spending amount could not be funded by the reduced income.
Lack of emergency savings can impact retirement readiness GTR 22
retirement outcome.
• 4 in 10 401(k) plan
participants lack
emergency savings.
• 7 in 10 said access to an
What actions were taken by households to raise cash? emergency savings
account through their
employer is appealing.
Source: How Financial Factors Outside of a 401(k) Plan Can Impact Retirement Readiness
https://www.ebri.org/content/summary/how-financial-factors-outside-of-a-401(k)-plan-can-impact-retirement-readiness; statistics on
401(k) participants: Defined Contribution Plan Participant Survey Findings, 2024 https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-
management/adv/insights/retirement-insights/plan-participant-survey/
Liquidity needs peak at mid-life GTR 23
Percentage of people with 401(k) loans or credit card debt peaks at mid-life
Be prepared
Personal and family related
% participants with 401(k) loans % households with revolving debt expenses may peak at mid-
life.
18% 48%
Saving early and emergency
savings can help manage
14% 44%
12% 42%
10% 40%
8% 38%
6% 36%
35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Age
Source: J.P. Morgan retirement research, percentage of people with 401(k) loan is based on 2021 Retirement by the Numbers study (2018-
2019 trends); J.P. Morgan Asset Management, percentage of people with credit card revolving debt is based on 2016-2024 internal select
credit card data from JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively “Chase”). Information that would have allowed identification
of specific customers was removed prior to the analysis.
The toxic effect of loans and withdrawals GTR 24
10%
As a % of salary
0%
-10%
Loan Loan
repayment repayment
-20%
-30%
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Age
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. For illustrative purposes only. Hypothetical portfolio is assumed to be invested 60% in the S&P 500
and 40% in the Bloomberg Capital U.S. Aggregate Index from 1984-2024. Starting salary of $30,000 increases by 2.4% each year. Loan and
withdrawal amounts are assumed to be $10,000. Loan interest rate is assumed to be 7.5% and is paid off over 4 years.
Spending and inflation GTR 25
2.0% 1.7%
1.0%
0.0%
Housing Health care Food & beverage Transportation Overall inflation
Source (top chart): Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 2017-2023 annual average Consumer Expenditure Survey, adjusted to December 2024
dollars. Housing inflation includes imputed rent (the amount a household would pay to rent the house they own). Housing spending
includes mortgage payments, rent, property taxes, maintenance, utilities and furnishings. Those who own their home outright or have low
fixed mortgages may have a hedge against inflation. Additional spending categories for age 35-44 and 75+, respectively: entertainment 6%
and 4%; other 4% and 4%; apparel 3% and 2%; education 2% and 1%.
Source (bottom chart): BLS, Consumer Price Index (all urban consumers, seasonally adjusted), J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Changes in spending Partially- and fully-retired households
$250k-$750k investable wealth
GTR 26
$55,290 Other
$52,760 $51,980 Those who live to the oldest
$51,920
ages may have costs related
Transportation
to long-term care.
$45,000
Food & beverage
$30,000
Education
Housing (includes
mortgage)
$15,000
Charity & gifts
Health care
$0
60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95+
Age
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, based on internal select data from JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively
“Chase”) including select Chase check, credit and debit card and electronic payment transactions from January 1, 2017 to November 30,
2024. Check and cash distribution: 2021 CE Survey; J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Information that would have allowed identification of
specific customers was removed prior to the analysis. Other includes: tax payments, insurance, gambling, personal care and uncategorized
items. Asset estimates for de-identified and aggregated households supplied by IXI, an Equifax Company for data from 2017-2023 and
Windfall for data from 2024. Estimates include all investable assets except employer-sponsored plans, home equity and other non-portable
assets. Additional information on J.P Morgan Asset Management’s data privacy standards available at
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/mod/insights/retirement-insights/gtr-privdisc/. Retired households receive
retirement income only, including Social Security, pension and/or annuity payments.
Changes in spending All households
$1m-$3m investable wealth
GTR 27
$89,710
$90,000 Other to long-term care.
$75,000 Transportation
$45,000 Education
Health care
$0
45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95+
Age
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, based on internal select data from JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively
“Chase”) including select Chase check, credit and debit card and electronic payment transactions from January 1, 2017 to November 30,
2024. Check and cash distribution: 2021 CE Survey; J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Information that would have allowed identification of
specific customers was removed prior to the analysis. Other includes: tax payments, insurance, gambling, personal care and uncategorized
items. Asset estimates for de-identified and aggregated households supplied by IXI, an Equifax Company for data from 2017-2023 and
Windfall for data from 2024. Estimates include all investable assets except employer-sponsored plans, home equity and other non-portable
assets. Additional information on J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s data privacy standards available at
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/mod/insights/retirement-insights/gtr-privdisc/
Spending volatility in retirement GTR 28
Spending fluctuates more than 20% per year for a significant number of retirees
Prepare for spending
fluctuations
Even though spending tends
to decrease starting at mid-
life, there is significant
variation from year to year for
many retirees.
For retirement income starting age 60-69. 2013-2019 (pre-pandemic) results are similar with 55% on the left chart and 51% on the right chart.
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, based on internal select data from JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively
“Chase”) including select Chase check, credit and debit card and electronic payment transactions from 2013 to 2022. Inflation-adjusted to
April 2023. Information that would have allowed identification of specific customers was removed prior to the analysis. Additional information
on J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s data privacy standards available at https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-
management/mod/insights/retirement-insights/gtr-privdisc/
More guaranteed income = less fear of spending Total retirement
wealth $1m-$3m GTR 29
$20,000
$0
20-40% 40-60% 60-80%
Source: Chase data including select Chase credit and debit card, electronic payment, ATM withdrawal and check transactions in 2023.
Information that would have allowed identification of specific customers was removed prior to the analysis. Asset estimates for de-identified
and aggregated households supplied by IXI/Equifax, Inc. Total retirement wealth is the sum of investable wealth and the present value of
observed retirement income sources including Social Security (inflated), pensions and annuities (both not inflated) until age 90. Inflation rate
assumption is 2.5%. Observed retirement income sources are adjusted to pre-tax values to be consistent with investable wealth.
More guaranteed income = less fear of spending Total retirement
wealth $3m-$5m GTR 30
+4 0 % $121,140
Spending
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0
20-40% 40-60% 60-80%
Source: Chase data including select Chase credit and debit card, electronic payment, ATM withdrawal and check transactions in 2023.
Information that would have allowed identification of specific customers was removed prior to the analysis. Asset estimates for de-identified
and aggregated households supplied by IXI/Equifax, Inc. Total retirement wealth is the sum of investable wealth and the present value of
observed retirement income sources including Social Security (inflated), pensions and annuities (both not inflated) until age 90. Inflation rate
assumption is 2.5%. Observed retirement income sources are adjusted to pre-tax values to be consistent with investable wealth.
The 4% rule: projected outcomes vs. historical experience GTR 31
40/60 portfolio at various initial withdrawal rates Historical ending wealth at 4% initial
Projected nominal outcomes, 80th percentile withdrawal rate (1928-2024) Good in theory, poor in
68 rolling 30-year periods
practice
$1,000,000
The 4% rule is the maximum
>$0 85%
initial withdrawal percentage
that has a high likelihood of
$800,000 not running out of money
>$1M 66%
after 30 years. With current
life expectancies, a 35-year
Portfolio value
Source: These charts are for illustrative purposes only and must not be used, or relied upon, to make investment decisions. Portfolios are
described as equity/bond percentages (e.g., a 40/60 portfolio is 40% equities and 60% bonds).
Right chart: The portfolio returns for the historical analysis are calculated based on 40% S&P 500 Total Return and 60% Bloomberg U.S.
Aggregate Total Return. Each portfolio's starting value is set at $1,000,000. Withdrawals are increased annually by CPI (CPI NSA Index).
Ending wealth at the end of each 30-year rolling period is in nominal terms.
Left chart: The hypothetical portfolio assumes All Country World Equity and U.S. Aggregate Bonds. J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s
(JPMAM) model is based on proprietary Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (first 15 years) and equilibrium returns (20 years). The
resulting projections include only the benchmark return associated with the portfolio and do not include alpha from the underlying product
strategies within each asset class. The yearly withdrawal amount is set as a fixed percentage of the initial amount of $1,000,000 and is then
inflation adjusted over the period (2.4%). Allocations, assumptions and expected returns are not meant to represent JPMAM performance.
Given the complex risk/reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in
setting strategic allocations. References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises or even
estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve.
Effects of withdrawal rates and portfolio allocations GTR 32
Source: This chart is for illustrative purposes only and must not be used, or relied upon, to make investment decisions. Portfolios are
described using equity/bonds. For asset allocation details, see “Model Portfolio Details” on the Disclosure page. J.P. Morgan Asset
Management’s (JPMAM) model is based on proprietary Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (first 15 years) and equilibrium returns (20
years). The resulting projections include only the benchmark return associated with the portfolio and do not include alpha from the
underlying product strategies within each asset class. The yearly withdrawal amount (1% to 10%) is set as a fixed percentage of the initial
amount of $1,000,000 and is then inflation adjusted over the period (2.4%). The percentile outcomes represent the percentage of simulated
results with an account balance greater than $0 after 35 years (e.g., “95-100” means that 95-100% of simulations had account balances
greater than $0 after 35 years). Overlap percentiles are included in the lower bracket (e.g., 80 is included in “75-80”; 85 is included in “80-
85”). Allocations, assumptions and expected returns are not meant to represent JPMAM performance. Given the complex risk/reward trade-
offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations.
References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a
client portfolio may achieve.
Sequence of return risk: retirement spending GTR 33
-20%
20%
Steadily Average
average 0%
return: 5%
-20%
20%
Bad start/
great end 0%
-20%
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Hypothetical return scenarios are for illustrative purposes only and are not meant to represent an
actual asset allocation. 1Years of spending assumes an initial $1,000,000 and a 4% withdrawal adjusted annually for 2.4% inflation.
Dollar cost ravaging: timing risk of withdrawals GTR 34
$0 diversification at the
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 beginning of retirement
Age
• Annuities with guarantees
and/or protection
Rate of return: actual vs. average 1966-2000 features
Assumed annual return: 8.1%
40/60 portfolio: Actual annual return: 9.5% • Investments that use
30% options strategies for
defensive purposes
20%
10%
0%
-10%
1966 1971
1970 1976
1975 1981
1980 1986
1985 1991
1990 1996
1995 2000
Assumptions (top chart): Retire at age 65 with $1,000,000 and withdraw 4% of the initial portfolio value ($40,000). Withdrawal amount
increased by historical inflation (CPI-U) each year. Returns are based on a hypothetical portfolio, which is assumed to be invested 40% in the
S&P 500 Total Return Index and 60% in the Bloomberg Capital U.S. Aggregate Index. The assumptions are presented for illustrative purposes
only. They must not be used, or relied upon, to make investment decisions. There is no direct correlation between a hypothetical investment
and the anticipated future return of an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Annual inflation (CPI-U) increased from 2.4% in 1966 to 6.3% in 1970; 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased from 4.93% in 1966 to 7.35% in 1970.
Source: Department of the Treasury, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Taking risk gets harder with age GTR 35
Aggressive Moderately aggressive Moderate Moderately conservative Conservative 78% of 401(k) plan
participants are concerned
about the value of their
Percentage who selected each investment risk category
0%
30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s
Age
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management Plan Participant Research, 2024. 1Question abridged from original and includes participants’ view
of their future self.
Consider how to fund your retirement goals GTR 36
Spend Principal:
Spend investment return and
a portion of your principal
Priority: Sustainable spending
• Protected lifetime income
• A dynamic withdrawal strategy
• A combination of both
Age
Building
37 your plan
Considerations Potential solutions
It may be useful to match
What is the time horizon Growth-oriented portfolios dependable income sources
and appropriate planning with regular retirement
Capital preservation strategies spending, while coordinating
strategy for your heirs and your
estate goals? Alternatives1 income-oriented solutions
and a cash reserve to meet
Legacy more variable expenses.
Social Security
For illustrative purposes only. Fixed income is subject to interest rate risk. Fixed income prices generally fall when interest rates rise. The
price of equity securities may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company’s financial condition, sometimes
rapidly or unpredictably. Investing in alternative assets involves higher risks than traditional investments and is suitable only for the long
term. They are not tax efficient and have higher fees than traditional investments. They may also be highly leveraged and engage in
speculative investment techniques, which can magnify the potential for investment loss or gain.
1Equity, fixed income and cash are considered “traditional” asset classes. The term “alternative” describes all non-traditional asset classes.
They include private and public equity, venture capital, hedge funds, real estate, commodities, distressed debt and more.
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Structuring a portfolio in retirement: the bucket strategy GTR 38
Time-based
$ segmentation
Investment income
& distributions Aligning your time horizon
with an investment approach
$ may help you to be more
comfortable with
maintaining diversified
Investment risk
portfolio allocations in
retirement.
They include private and public equity, venture capital, hedge funds, real estate, commodities, distressed debt and more. J.P. Morgan Asset
Management.
Goals-based wealth management GTR 39
-40%
-37%
-60%
1 year 5-year rolling 10-year rolling 20-year rolling
Source (top chart): J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Source (bottom chart): Bloomberg, FactSet, Federal Reserve, Morningstar, Strategas/Ibbotson, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Returns shown are based on calendar year returns from 1950 to 2024. Stocks represent the S&P 500 Total Return Index and Bonds
represent Strategas/Ibbotson for periods prior to 1976 and the Bloomberg Aggregate thereafter. Cash represents the U.S. 90 Day Treasury
Bill Total Return.
Portfolio allocations are hypothetical and are for illustrative purposes only. They were created to illustrate different risk/return profiles and
are not meant to represent actual asset allocation.
Impact of being out of the market GTR 40
$30,000 $32,871
3.5%
$20,000
$19,724
1.3%
$10,000 $12,948 -0.6%
-2.2%
$8,905 -3.7%
$6,386 $4,712
$0
Fully Missed 10 Missed 20 Missed 30 Missed 40 Missed 50 Missed 60
Invested best days best days best days best days best days best days
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management using data from Bloomberg. Returns are based on the S&P 500 Total Return Index, an unmanaged,
capitalization-weighted index that measures the performance of 500 large capitalization domestic stocks representing all major industries.
Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. The hypothetical performance calculations
are shown for illustrative purposes only and are not meant to be representative of actual results while investing over the time periods
shown. The hypothetical performance calculations are shown gross of fees. If fees were included, returns would be lower. Hypothetical
performance returns reflect the reinvestment of all dividends. The hypothetical performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike
an actual performance record, they do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees and other costs. Also, since the trades have not
actually been executed, the results may have under- or overcompensated for the impact of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity.
Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. Returns will fluctuate
and an investment upon redemption may be worth more or less than its original value. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
An individual cannot invest directly in an index. Data as of December 31, 2024.
Social Security timing trade-offs GTR 41
100%
70% -6% average per year +8% per year 124%
benefit
For illustrative purposes only. The Social Security Amendments Act of 1983 increased FRA from 65 to 67 over a 40-year period. The first phase
of transition increased FRA from 65 to 66 for individuals turning 62 between 2000 and 2005. After an 11-year hiatus, the transition from 66 to
67 (2017-2022) is complete. This material should be regarded as educational information on Social Security and is not intended to provide
specific advice. If you have questions regarding your situation, you should contact the Social Security Administration and/or your legal or
tax professional.
Source: Social Security Administration, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Maximizing Social Security benefits: maximum earner GTR 42
$1,389k
$600k $799k
Claim at 62:
$2,814 per month
Social Security /Health
Age 62 67 70 77 81 90
1Couple assumes at least one lives to the specified age or beyond. Breakeven assumes the same individual, born in 1963, earns the
maximum wage base each year ($176,100 in 2025), retires at the end of age 61 and claims at 62 & 1 month, 67 and 70, respectively. Benefits
are assumed to increase each year based on the Social Security Administration 2024 OASDI Trustee’s Report intermediate estimates
(annual benefit increase of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027 and thereafter). Monthly amounts with the cost-of-living adjustments (not shown
on the chart) are: $4,517 at FRA and $6,014 at age 70. Exact breakeven ages are 76 years & 10 months and 80 years & 8 months.
Source: Social Security Administration, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Social Security benefit claiming considerations GTR 43
Comparison of claim age based on an individual’s expected rate of return and longevity
Color represents the claim age with the highest expected lifetime benefits Consider portfolio
10% returns and your life
9% expectancy
Expected annual rate of return
4%
3%
Claim at age 70
2%
1%
Social Security /Health
0%
62 67 70 77 81 90 100
Expected longevity
How to use:
• Go to the intersection of your expected rate of return and your expected longevity.
• The color at this intersection represents the Social Security claim age that maximizes total wealth
(cumulative Social Security benefit and investment portfolio) given three claiming options: age 62, Full
Retirement Age (age 67) and age 70.
• Example: For a woman with an expected consistent 5.5% rate of return (net of fees) and life expectancy of 88:
consider claiming at age 70.
Assumes the same individual, born in 1963, retires at the end of age 61 and claims at 62 & 1 month, 67 and 70, respectively. Benefits are
assumed to increase each year based on the Social Security Administration 2024 OASDI Trustee’s Report intermediate estimates (annual
benefit increase of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027 and thereafter). Analysis is based on a maximum earner (all earnings profiles yield similar
results). Expected rate of return is deterministic, in nominal terms, and net of fees.
Source (chart): Social Security Administration, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Source (longevity): Social Security Administration 2024 OASDI Trustees Report.
Claiming Social Security: decision tree GTR 44
Additional considerations:
Y N
Consider claiming
your benefit Understand what you may be leaving
Delay claiming on the table at older ages
Page 42: Maximizing Social Security benefits
Consider taking Age
Do you expect to live beyond age 77? N your benefit as
Social Security /Health
early as age 62 62
Y
This material should be regarded as educational information on Social Security and is not intended to provide specific advice. If you have
questions regarding your situation, you should contact the Social Security Administration and/or your legal or tax professionals.
1Full Retirement Age (FRA) of 67 is for individuals born 1960 or later. This decision tree is also appropriate for other FRAs.
Myth: “I should take my benefit now because it might be cut later.” • For young workers, there
2 will still be payroll taxes to
Social Security /Health
45-64, 36%
66%
65+, 30%
1 TheSocial Security Old Age and Survivor Trust Fund is projected to be depleted in 2033, but combined with the Disability Trust Fund the
projected depletion date is 2035. This material should be regarded as general information and is not intended to provide advice. If you have
questions, contact the Social Security Administration and/or your legal or tax professional. Source (top chart): 2024 Social Security Trustees
Report. Source (bottom chart): Kaiser Family Foundation, number of voters as a share of the voting population by age.
Three steps for Medicare coverage GTR 46
Option 2
Medicare Advantage/ Includes Part D drug coverage
Part C limited to a May cover some vision, dental, hearing and other expenses
network of providers (will have co-pays and deductibles for medical and drug expenses)
3 Prepare for additional expenses: Medicare does not cover most long-term care costs1
For help, visit the Medicare Rights Center at www.medicarerights.org or your State Health Insurance
Assistance Program (SHIP) at www.shiptacenter.org.
1Medicare does pay for medically necessary skilled nursing facility or home health care, with strict requirements that are difficult to meet on
a limited basis, and for some hospice care. If you transfer assets to others there is a five-year “look back” where the government will recover
the assets transferred if you go on Medicaid. This is not personal advice. Consult an elder care attorney if you have questions.
Source: Medicare.gov as of December 31, 2024; J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Rising health care costs in retirement GTR 47
In 2025 dollars
Estimated future value total average monthly cost at age 95 is $3,282. Today’s dollar calculation used a 2.4% discount rate to account for
overall inflation. Medigap premiums typically increase with age after purchase, in addition to inflation, except for the following states: AR, AZ,
CT, FL, GA, ID, MA, ME, MN, MO, NY, VT, WA. For local information, contact the State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP)
https://www.shiptacenter.org/. Plan G premium is nationwide average for non-smokers. If Plan G is not available, analysis includes the
most comprehensive plan available.
Source: HealthView Services, December 2024; Kaiser Family Foundation, Key Facts About Medigap Enrollment, October 2024.
Maximizing an HSA for health care expenses GTR 48
$150,000
Social Security /Health
$50,000
$0
50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64
Age
1Must have a qualifying high-deductible health plan to make contributions. Funds in the HSA may be withdrawn tax free for qualified
medical expenses unless a credit or deduction for medical expenses is claimed. After age 65 funds also may be withdrawn for any reason
and taxed as ordinary income without penalty. Some health insurance premiums may be qualified expenses such as COBRA coverage,
coverage while receiving state or federal unemployment compensation, Medicare Parts B and D premiums and qualified long-term care
(LTC) insurance premiums up to certain limits but excludes Medigap/Medicare supplement policies and most hybrid products that
combine LTC with annuities and life insurance. See IRS Publications 969 and 502. This is not intended to be individual tax advice; consult a
tax professional.
The above example is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. 2025 family contribution limit of $8,550 is adjusted
for inflation of 2.4% for 15 years with catch-up contributions of $1,000 per person starting at age 55 in 2030. Does not include account fees.
Present value of illustrated HSA is $208,555. Estimated savings from tax deductions at a 37% marginal rate are $64,570. Assumes cash or
income used for health care expenses is not withdrawn from an account with a tax liability. Assumes $2,000 was held in a cash account
and not earning a return. Individual 2025 contribution limit is $4,300.
Source: IRS.gov; Medicare.gov; J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Long-term care planning GTR 49
5%
0%
<$30k $30k-$90k $90k-$180k $180k-$300k >$300k+
1Average value of unpaid care when unpaid care is used is $249,600 for women and $235,300 for men.
Long-term care includes needing help with two or more activities of daily living such as eating, dressing, bathing, transferring and toileting
or severe cognitive impairment. Average of cost is adjusted to January 2024 dollars and includes all payors.
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, APSE Brief, August 2022, Long-term Services and Supports for Older Americans,
Risks and Financing, 2022; J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
65 and working: should I sign up for Medicare? GTR 50
Important information:
Check with your employer:
Sign up for all parts of Creditable coverage means
do you have creditable N 1
START HERE Medicare coverage at least as good as
medical coverage?1
Medicare. Ask for proof of
Do your homework: will Y creditable coverage each year.
Medicare coverage be
better and/or less N
expensive than
Check with your employer: Sign up for Part A and 2 Signing up for Medicare and
employer coverage?
do you have creditable N Part D and stop HSA contributing to a Health
prescription coverage?2 contributions Savings Account (HSA) will
Y
result in tax penalties.4
Y
Do you contribute Have you filed or will Signing up for Social Security
3
to a Health Savings N you file for Social will mean automatic enrollment
Account (HSA)? Security in 6 months? in Parts A and B. Part A will be
retroactive for 6 months (but
Y Y N
not before age 65) and you will
not be able to opt out of it.
Reference
Drop employer Do not sign up for Stop HSA contributions Do not sign up
coverage and sign Medicare and opt out of Medicare for Medicare
up for all parts of Part B after you sign up for
Medicare Social Security3
1Employer coverage that is not creditable will become secondary after Medicare has paid. If you have creditable employer coverage, Medicare
will be secondary after your employer plan has paid. 2Because Medicare enhanced Part D coverage in 2025, fewer employer drug plans will be
creditable than in the past. 3To disenroll in Part B you must have an interview with the Social Security Administration and use Form CMS 1763.
4Total HSA contributions for the year in excess of the maximum contribution for the year divided by the number of months you are eligible to
make contributions will result in tax penalties (6% of the excess contribution each year). This is not intended to be tax advice; consult your tax
professional. For more information, see www.mymedicarematters.org/enrollment/am-i-eligible, sponsored by the National Council on Aging.
Source: IRS Publication 969, National Council on Aging and Medicare.gov websites as of December 31, 2024; J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Variation in Medicare Advantage costs GTR 51
$216
Reference
$0
Age 65 (2025) Age 95 (2055)
In 2025 dollars
Total costs = annual premium + out-of-pocket costs. High costs: weighted average of medical costs (70th percentile) and prescription costs
(65th percentile). Low costs: weighted average for medical costs (25th percentile) and prescription costs (35th percentile). Plans include
Part D and exclude those with subsidies for low-income beneficiaries. Today’s dollar calculation used a 2.4% discount rate.
Estimated future value of total average costs at age 95 is $1,868. Cost estimates include increased use of medical care at older ages and will
vary based on plan characteristics.
Source: HealthView Services, December 2024.
2025 income-related monthly adjustment amounts GTR 52
The adjustment amount is the same for all income levels within a band
If you go over a threshold, you pay the additional premium for that band Surcharge details
There may be a bigger impact
for singles and surviving
Modified Adjusted Gross Income
spouses: Medicare
based on 2023 tax year filing1
surcharge thresholds for
Additional monthly premium amount singles are half of the
per person thresholds for couples.
Filing single Filing jointly Parts B & D in 2025
Filing an appeal?
If you have stopped work
$106,000-$133,000 $212,000-$266,000 $87 or you have lower income
due to circumstances
outside of your control,
you might be eligible for an
$133,000-$167,000 $266,000-$334,000 $219 appeal. See form SSA-44 for
details:
https://www.ssa.gov/forms/
$167,000-$200,000 $334,000-$400,000 ssa-44-ext.pdf
$352
After exhausting
• Health Savings Accounts
Savings/expense reductions other options
(HSAs) may be used tax
Some expenses such as travel may go down free for qualified expenses
Rules to qualify in retirement.2
vary by state but
generally you must • Prefer care at home?
Insurance be low income with
Options: traditional long-term care insurance, combination life Consider how you will
few assets to qualify1 remain socially connected.
and annuity products, life insurance for a surviving spouse and
deferred annuities for income late in life
Home equity
Second homes may be sold; the home equity in your primary
residence may be used; credit availability and home value may
fluctuate
1If
you transfer assets to others, there is a five-year “look back” where the government will recover the assets transferred if you go on
Medicaid. This is not personal advice; consult an elder care attorney if you have questions.
2HSAs may be used to fund qualified traditional long-term care policy premiums up to certain limits. Necessary home improvements may
qualify if they do not improve the value of your home. Services for chronically ill individuals who are unable to perform two or more activities
of daily living or who have severe cognitive impairment may be qualified if they are part of a prescribed plan from a licensed practitioner.
For a list of qualified expenses, see IRS Publication 502 or consult your tax professional; this is not meant to be personal tax advice.
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Retirement plan contribution and deferral limits: 2024/2025 GTR 54
Social Security $59,520/year (in year of FRA*) $62,100/year (in year of FRA*)
*FRA is Full Retirement Age for Social Security. Assumes FRA at age 67.
1Employer may either match employee’s salary reduction contributions dollar for dollar up to 3% of employee’s compensation or make non-
elective contributions equal to 2% of compensation up to the annual compensation limit. IRS Publication 560.
2Employer contributions may not exceed the annual defined contribution limit or 25% of compensation. Other rules apply for self-employed
Unless otherwise indicated, all illustrations are shown in U.S. dollars. Model
AssetPortfolio
class Details (Equity%/Bond%) Source:40/60
20/80 PI-AA-MODELS_4Q20 0903c02a81cfc27a
50/50 60/40 80/20
Past performance is no guarantee of comparable future results.
U.S. large cap growth 4.5% 8.8% 11.0% 13.3% 17.5%
Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of
loss. U.S. large cap value 4.5% 8.8% 11.0% 13.3% 17.5%
Indices are unmanaged and an individual cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns U.S. mid/small cap 2.3% 4.5% 5.5% 6.5% 9.0%
do not include fees or expenses.
U.S. REITs 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 4.0%
The S&P 500 Index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of the U.S. equities
market. This world-renowned index includes a representative sample of 500 leading Developed market equities 5.5% 11.3% 14.0% 16.8% 22.5%
companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Although the S&P 500 Index
focuses on the large cap segment of the market, with approximately 75% coverage of Emerging market equities 2.3% 4.8% 6.0% 7.3% 9.5%
U.S. equities, it is also an ideal proxy for the total market. An investor cannot invest
U.S. investment-grade bonds 61.8% 45.8% 38.0% 30.0% 14.0%
directly in an index.
The Bloomberg Capital U.S. Aggregate Index represents securities that are SEC- U.S. high yield bonds 12.3% 9.3% 7.5% 6.0% 3.0%
registered, taxable and dollar denominated. The index covers the U.S. investment-grade Emerging market debt 4.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.0%
fixed rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities,
mortgage pass-through securities and asset-backed securities. These major sectors U.S. cash 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
are subdivided into more specific indices that are calculated and reported on a regular
basis. Model portfolios can only be distributed by Intermediaries where Advisory Portfolios are
available.
Bonds are subject to interest rate risks. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only.
rise. It is educational in nature and not designed to be a recommendation for any specific
The price of equity securities may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purposes. By receiving this
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