Monthly Equity Market Insight

January 2025

EQUITY UPDATE
• Indian equity markets ended lower in the month of December,2024. Nifty Outlook
50 declined by ~2.6% during December,2024. Challenging 1HFY25, while 2HFY25 could see recovery:
• MSCI India Large cap Index was down 2.3% while MSCI India Midcap Index • The Q2 slowdown is fairly priced in and looking at the prospective trends,
was up 2.0%. MSCI India Small cap Index was flat during the month. (especially three months of activity since Sept,2024), we see a prospect of
Pharma & Healthcare were the best performing sectors in December,2024 a good comeback. First, agriculture is likely to see a further revival as kharif
(+6% approx.). PSU Banks were one of the worst performers (-4%) along crop and price outlook is favourable. Upcoming rabi crop is also likely to be
with Metals (down 4.4%) and Oil & Gas (down 3%). positive. Government capex which has been lagging in 1HFY25, is likely to
• Global markets ended mixed. US (Dow Jones), Brazil and Australia pick up in 2HFY25.
declined 5.3%, 4.3% and 3.3% respectively, whereas Japan (+4.4%), Rural consumption could offset the softness in urban consumption and
Taiwan (+3.5%) and Hong Kong (+3.3%) were the major gainers. this too presents a positive picture with the ongoing harvest and
commencement of the next season. We also expect state government’s
Global Macros welfare spends will support consumption recovery.
• US Fed hints at slower pace of rate cuts in 2025: While US Fed lowered
1HFY25 consumption was also impacted due to adverse weather
interest rates by 25 bps during December,2024 FOMC (Federal Operating (heatwave and flooding) and lower wedding dates. Both weather and
Market Committee), the policy stance perceived as hawkish - "extent and weddings have normalised in 2HFY25 which is driving recovery in footfalls.
timing" of future rate cuts, suggesting a slower pace in 2025 (based on dot
plot projections) than previously anticipated. This was primarily on Monetary policy stimulus could also help in reviving growth in the
account of uncertainty surrounding new administration’s policies and its near-medium term.
impact on inflation and labor markets. The trade tariffs and tax cuts, if • India’s long-term story intact: While near term concerns have risen and
implemented may lead to inflationary pressures. could weigh on investor sentiments, medium to long term India story
• Bond yield: The US 10-year bond yield increased sharply to 4.57% on remains intact driven by the following:
December 31,2024 from 4.17% on November 30,2024 on expectations of • India’s macros remain robust (Fiscal consolidation, Strong Balance
fewer rate cuts and sustained inflationary pressures. Sheets, Recovery in Consumption etc) amidst slowing global growth.
• Crude prices were volatile and ended December,2024 higher at India's long-term growth prospects steady, projected at 6.5% real GDP
~US$74.6/bbl(barrel), but intra-month we saw Brent through $71 to $75 growth and 10-11% nominal GDP growth.
owing to geopolitical tensions. OPEC (organization of the petroleum • Strong Balance Sheets: The strength of bank (NPAs- non performing
exporting countries)delayed oil output hike until April’25.
assets below 1%) and corporate balance sheets is notable. India Inc.’s
Domestic Macros profits are growing strong, but they are also generating large amounts of
free cashflows in sharp contrast to 2003-2008, where free cashflows were
• Index of Industrial Production (IIP): IIP for October,2024 expanded 3.5%
in deficit. Household debt levels are also reasonable compared to global
YoY. Among major components of IIP, electricity generation (+2% YoY) and standards. India's aggregate debt to GDP is lower than in 2010, while it has
mining activity (+0.9% YoY) exhibited tepid recovery and manufacturing risen globally.
expanded 4.1% YoY. Consumer durables (+5.9%) and consumer
non-durables segment grew 2.7% YoY. • Key things to watch out are (a) Rate trajectory by the central banks, (b)
US Policies post new administration (c) Oil price trend, (d) Geopolitical
• Government capex picking up but ask rate too high to meet budget
issues and (e) Revival in consumption (f) Upcoming Union Budget.
estimate : In Nov 2024 government capex rose 21% y-o-y. Cumulative
govt capex degrew by 12% y-o-y (Rs 5.1tn 8MFY25). Govt. needs to spend • Valuation and view:� The Nifty 50 Index's valuation at ~19x FY26E and
Rs 1.5tn per month during Dec24-Mar24 to meet the capex target of Rs ~17x FY27E P/E is reasonable given the consensus earnings growth of
11.1tn. mid-teens CAGR over FY23-FY27. Earnings growth is broad-based,
providing better certainty. Some sectors particularly amongst industrials
• Current Account Deficit (CAD) for 2QFY25 stood at US$11.2 bn (1.2% of
continue to trade at a premium. Mean reversion is expected in these richly
GDP). Goods trade deficit was at US$75 bn while services trade surplus was valued sectors.
at US$45 bn. Capital flows was at US$31 bn with net FDI (Foreign direct
investment) flows at US$(-)2 bn and net FPI (foreign portfolio
investments) flows at around US$20 bn. Overall balance of payments
surplus was at US$18.6 bn. Chart of the month: Govt capex target of Rs. 11.1tn unlikely to
• December 2024 Gross GST collection came in at Rs1.77 trillion, -2.75% be met in FY25E; Three scenarios.
MoM and up +7.3% YoY. The rate of growth in GST collection is decelerating
(FY24: 11.7% YoY). Govt Capex (Rs. tn)
12.0 Govt needs to spend
• Credit growth in the fortnight ending Dec 15th,2024 slowed to 11.5% YoY nearly Rs. 1.5tn per month
11.1 during Dec'24-Mar'24 to
converging with deposit growth which also stood at 11.5% YoY. Credit 11.0 meet the capex target of
growth had outpaced deposit growth for the first time in 30 months in the Rs. 11.1tn, which seems
Impossible in our vie:
fortnight ending 18th Oct,2024 10.0 9.6
If govt spends nearly Rs.
• Inflation (CPI) of 5.5% YoY in November,2024 was lower than 9.1 In per month in the next
9.0 four months, govt capex
October,2024 levels of 6.2% led by some moderation in food prices expected to fall short by
8.1 8.1 Rs. 2tn.
(especially vegetables and fruits). Food inflation fell to 9%
8.0
(October,2024:10.9%) with sequential fall of 0.6%. 7.1 If govt continues to spend
7.7 at the current run rate of
7.0 6.6
Regulatory, policy and market developments 7.1
Rs.642bn per month in
the next four months, govt
6.1 capex expected to fall short
• CRR(cash reserve ratio) cut by 50 bps: During December,2024 monetary 6.0 6.4 by. Rs.3.4tn

policy, RBI cut CRR by 50 bps (in 2 equal tranches) infusing permanent 5.1 6.1
liquidity in the banking system to the tune of Rs 1.16 trillion. However, it 5.0
Apr-Nov’24 Dec’24E Jan’25E Feb’25E Mar’25E
kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for 11th straight time with majority
vote 4:2 in favour of the decision. It revised GDP estimates downwards by
60 bps to 6.6% while inflation was revised upwards by 30 bps to 4.8% for Source: Spark research as on December,2024
FY25.
• Record Primary Issuances: 2024 saw record-high capital raising through
IPOs with Rs 1.4 lakh crore raised till November 2024, with India leading
the world in number of issuances (241 during Jan-Nov’24). This
momentum is expected to continue in 2025.
• Equity trading trends: FII(Foreign Institutional Investor) were net buyers
to the tune of US$1.3 bn in December,2024 after being net sellers for two
consecutive months while DIIs(Direct Institutional Investor)continued to
support the markets

01 MONTHLY EQUITY MARKET INSIGHT

 Performance of Global and Regional Indices
Nifty 50 Index Valuation Chart
Performance (%)
Name
1m 3m 6m 1Yr
40.00 Global and regional indices
Brazil (Bovespa) -4.3% -7.3% -2.9% -10.4%
30.00 Shanghai (SHCOMP) 0.5% 1.1% 13.7% 14.7%
Germany (DAX) 1.4% 4.4% 9.2% 18.8%
20.00
Hong Kong - HSI 3.3% -1.3% 13.2% 17.7%
21.79 Nifty 50 index P/E Ratio Japan (Nikkei) 4.4% 2.1% 0.8% 19.2%
10.00 24.77 5 Year Average
Korea (Kospi) -2.3% -6.1% -14.2% -9.6%
23.93 10 Year Average
UK (FTSE) -1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 5.7%
0.00
US (Dow Jones) -5.3% 1.9% 8.8% 12.9%
Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22

Dec-23

Dec-24
Source:Bloomberg Data as on 31st December ,2024.

Source: NSE Values as on 31st December, 2024

Performance in December of Major Indian Indices

Major Performance (%)

indian Indices Nov 24 Dec 24
Index Movement Last Month 1m 3m 6m 1Yr
BSE SENSEX - TRI 123744.09 121164.19 -2.08 -7.15 -0.68 9.49
NIFTY 50 - TRI 35878.82 35155.77 -2.02 -8.25 -1.08 10.09
98 Nifty 50 (TRI) Index
Nifty Midcap 150 - TRI 26436.15 26732.77 1.12 -5.18 1.77 24.46
101 Nifty Midcap 150 (TRI) Index
110 100 Nifty Small Cap 250 (TRI) Index Source:AceMF Data as on 31st December,2024.

Performance of Indian Sector Indices

100 Performance (%)
Name
1m 3m 6m 1Yr
NSE Sector Indices

90 NIFTY AUTO - TRI -0.93 -10.69 0.26 34.15

NIFTY BANK - TRI 0.48 1.37 7.29 18.07
02-Dec-24

04-Dec-24

06-Dec-24

08-Dec-24

10-Dec-24

12-Dec-24

14-Dec-24

16-Dec-24

18-Dec-24

20-Dec-24

22-Dec-24

24-Dec-24

26-Dec-24

28-Dec-24

30-Dec-24

NIFTY ENERGY - TRI -4.36 -14.11 -5.53 29.60

NIFTY FMCG - TRI -2.74 -7.84 8.04 11.36
Nifty Infrastructure - TRI -0.50 -7.22 1.89 33.67
Source: NSE Values as on 31st December, 2024
NIFTY IT - TRI 3.65 1.41 33.27 35.02
NIFTY MEDIA - TRI 0.98 -4.83 5.69 -12.55
NIFTY METAL - TRI -3.25 -3.80 -4.91 29.46
NIFTY PHARMA - TRI -0.58 -4.18 17.74 37.88
NIFTY REALTY - TRI 1.92 -3.13 2.67 43.34
Source:AceMF Data as on 31st December,2024.

High Frequency Indicators

Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24
Industry
PMI manufacturing 55.5 54.0 54.9 55.9 54.7 54.6 53.9 56.4 56.2 55.1 55.3 55.7 57.8 55.4 55.3 56.4 57.2 58.7 57.8 57.7 58.6 57.5 55.5 56.0 54.9 56.5 56.9 59.1 58.8 57.5 58.3 58.1 58.1 58.1 58.1
Credit growth (industry) 9.4 3.5 4.3 4.9 7.2 8.0 9.1 9.6 10.6 11.5 12.4 11.8 7.8 8.9 7.0 5.7 7.0 6.0 8.1 5.7 6.6 7.1 5.9 6.6 8.6 7.3 9.3 8.5 7.4 9.4 8.1 10.1 9.7 8.9 7.9
Petroleum products consumption (industrials) 9.6 13.2 15.2 2.6 28.1 24.2 19.2 19.1 28.8 7.5 12.8 12.6 0.3 (2.6) 7.5 17.3 (8.8) 14.9 6.9 (1.3) 13.7 12.2 (2.9) (2.0) 10.2 13.7 11.1 (4.0) 15.5 (0.7) 3.9 21.6 (10.8) (5.2) 2.2
Bitumen consumption (9.8) 0.7 3.6 (6.8) (2.1) 12.4 21.0 (21.6) 1.5 (8.7) (10.5) 54.7 (7.1) (14.3) (9.2) 4.3 9.6 17.6 9.5 50.6 58.5 37.5 26.6 (19.6) 10.9 10.5 0.9 (1.0) (4.8) 8.8 3.7 (20.5) (42.9) (0.7) (7.2)
Diesel consumption 1.5 (6.5) (0.9) 6.6 7.8 31.7 23.9 8.1 13.2 13.4 5.6 19.3 6.6 12.8 7.4 1.1 8.6 12.7 3.1 3.8 5.2 3.8 9.3 (3.0) 2.6 8.1 8.2 1.7 7.8 1.9 2.7 4.5 (2.5) (1.9) 0.1
Core infrastructure 4.1 4.0 5.9 4.8 9.5 19.3 13.1 4.7 4.2 8.3 0.7 5.7 8.3 9.7 6.0 4.2 4.3 5.0 8.3 8.5 12.5 9.2 12.7 7.9 4.9 4.1 7.1 6.0 6.7 6.3 5.1 6.1 (1.6) 2.4 3.1
IIP mining 2.6 3.0 4.6 3.9 8.4 11.2 7.8 (3.3) (3.9) 5.2 2.6 9.7 10.1 9.0 4.6 6.8 5.1 6.4 7.6 10.7 12.3 11.5 13.1 7.0 5.2 5.9 8.1 1.3 6.8 6.6 10.3 3.8 (4.3) 0.2
IIP manufacturing 0.6 1.9 0.2 1.4 5.6 20.7 12.9 3.1 (0.5) 2.0 (5.8) 6.7 3.6 4.5 5.3 1.2 5.2 5.8 3.1 5.0 9.3 4.9 10.2 1.2 4.5 3.6 4.9 5.8 3.9 5.0 2.6 4.4 1.1 3.9
IIP electricity 2.8 0.9 4.5 6.1 11.8 23.5 16.4 2.3 1.4 11.6 1.2 12.7 10.4 12.7 8.2 (1.6) (1.1) 0.9 4.2 8.0 15.3 9.9 20.4 5.8 1.2 5.6 7.5 8.6 10.2 13.7 8.6 7.9 (3.7) 0.5
IIP coal 5.2 8.2 6.6 0.3 30.1 33.5 32.1 11.3 7.6 12.1 3.8 12.3 12.3 13.6 8.5 11.7 9.1 7.2 9.8 14.9 17.9 16.0 18.4 10.9 10.7 10.2 11.6 8.7 7.5 10.2 14.7 6.8 (8.1) 2.6 7.8
Railways freight traffic 7.2 7.8 6.6 6.7 9.4 14.6 11.3 8.3 7.9 9.2 1.4 5.2 3.0 3.8 4.7 3.0 (0.6) (2.1) (7.6) (3.5) 2.2 4.2 8.5 4.3 6.4 6.4 10.1 NA 1.4 3.7 10.1 4.5 0.0 NA 1.5
Steel production 1.7 6.3 6.0 4.9 3.9 18.0 7.7 10.1 6.6 4.0 2.2 9.0 9.7 11.5 14.3 11.6 6.5 15.3 13.8 14.6 16.6 14.6 14.1 18.5 12.9 6.4 13.5 7.2 5.7 6.2 1.0 10.0 3.9 1.6 4.1
Services
PMI services 55.5 51.5 51.8 53.6 57.9 58.9 59.2 55.5 57.2 54.3 55.1 56.4 58.5 57.2 59.4 57.8 62.0 61.2 58.5 62.3 60.1 61.0 58.4 56.9 59.0 61.8 60.6 61.2 60.8 60.2 60.5 60.3 60.3 60.3 60.3
Credit growth (services) 12.5 6.6 7.2 9.5 12.5 14.0 14.1 18.1 18.7 21.5 23.8 22.7 20.4 21.2 20.7 19.8 21.7 21.4 26.7 23.6 24.8 25.0 23.6 25.4 22.9 24.9 23.6 23.5 21.7 23.2 17.4 14.0 13.9 13.7 12.7
Airport passenger traffic 52.7 (16.8) (1.3) 36.4 86.8 463.0 247.2 98.2 54.6 50.1 29.8 11.5 14.2 95.8 56.8 21.4 22.2 15.2 18.8 24.7 22.8 18.4 10.8 9.0 8.3 4.6 4.8 3.7 2.4 4.4 5.8 7.3 5.7 6.4 8.1
Airport cargo 10.6 2.3 (2.2) 3.5 11.9 73.7 52.6 29.9 8.8 7.7 (1.9) 7.7 (1.3) 8.2 9.8 7.0 6.0 3.6 1.9 5.0 15.3 4.8 11.5 14.0 11.5 10.3 13.9 2.9 0.0 7.6 7.2 5.2 2.3 9.6
Foreign tourist arrivals 250.8 128.1 130.7 167.6 422.1 2,154.9 1,416.7 823.4 465.9 376.9 243.2 191.3 204.2 330.8 259.4 132.5 53.7 41.3 24.0 13.6 22.6 17.5 19.8 16.8 7.8 10.4 15.8 8.0 7.7 0.3 9.0 (1.3)
Demand
Credit growth (personal loans) 17.7 14.1 13.8 13.7 14.9 16.8 18.1 19.1 19.7 19.8 20.3 19.7 20.2 20.5 20.4 20.6 19.4 19.2 20.9 31.2 30.8 30.3 29.7 30.1 28.5 28.8 28.3 27.5 27.1 28.7 25.6 15.0 13.9 13.4 12.9
Center's expenditure (net of interest payments) 20.1 25.5 6.6 (9.5) 18.5 28.3 (3.6) (12.5) (5.1) 27.8 67.3 25.5 (30.0) 22.5 (4.7) 9.6 9.7 5.0 22.0 121.6 7.1 (1.5) (22.2) (17.1) 9.3 (22.2) 25.5 (10.1) 15.2 (21.1) (29.3) (2.6) 25.2 4.1 31.0
Fuel consumption (retail) 1.2 (4.4) 1.1 6.7 8.5 27.7 17.5 5.5 9.6 9.1 3.7 13.0 5.3 8.8 5.3 1.0 5.3 11.3 3.4 3.7 4.3 4.9 7.2 0.5 (0.9) 5.7 7.4 4.8 5.6 2.6 2.1 7.1 2.3 0.2 3.8
Passenger vehicle sales (13.3) (8.1) (6.5) (3.9) (3.8) 185.1 19.1 11.1 21.1 92.0 28.6 28.1 7.2 17.2 11.0 4.5 31.7 13.5 2.0 19.2 27.7 17.7 33.9 21.0 21.7 31.9 27.0 26.0 1.3 4.0 3.1 (2.5) (1.8) (1.4) 0.9
Two wheeler sales (10.8) (21.1) (27.3) (20.9) 15.4 255.3 24.0 10.2 17.0 13.5 2.3 17.7 3.9 5.0 8.8 9.0 16.5 17.4 1.7 (7.2) 0.6 0.8 20.2 31.3 16.0 26.2 34.6 15.3 30.8 10.1 21.3 12.5 9.3 15.8 14.2
Non-oil imports 31.6 23.3 26.6 8.6 14.6 51.6 44.5 34.0 25.0 16.0 0.5 4.8 (4.5) (8.1) (9.6) 0.1 (13.5) (7.0) (10.7) (8.9) 2.0 (11.6) 13.8 (2.7) 3.4 2.4 17.8 (6.6) 6.9 (0.2) 0.5 4.6 15.9 5.8 0.7

Notes:
(a) Petroleum products consumption comprise naphtha, NGL, LDO, furnace oil, LSHS, etc .
(b) Fuel consumption comprise LPG, kerosene, gasoline and diesel.
Source: CEIC, Kotak Institutional Equities

The above chart shows a heat map for various indicators from December 2021 to October 2024 where greener cells signify
positive movement, and negative as it moves to red.
Source: Bloomberg. All the above data is as on 1stJanuary 2025 unless stated otherwise. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. The above is performance of the Index and does not in any manner indicate the
performance of any individual scheme of Mutual Fund.
Past Performance May or May not sustain in future
NSE Indices Ltd Disclaimer: NSE INDICES LIMITED do not guarantee the accuracy and/or the completeness of the Index or any data included therein and NSE INDICES LIMITED shall have not have any responsibility or liability for
any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein. NSE INDICES LIMITED does not make any warranty, express or implied, as to results to be obtained by the Issuer, owners of the product(s), or any other person or entity from the use of
the Index or any data included therein. NSE INDICES LIMITED makes no express or implied warranties, and expressly disclaims all warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use with respect to the index or
any data included therein. Without limiting any of the foregoing, NSE INDICES LIMITED expressly disclaim any and all liability for any claims ,damages or losses arising out of or related to the Products, including any and all direct,
special, punitive, indirect, or consequential damages (including lost profits), even if notified of the possibility of such damages

The information contained in this document is compiled from third party and publicly available sources and is included for general information purposes only. There can be no assurance and guarantee on the yields. Views expressed
by the Fund Manager cannot be construed to be a decision to invest. The statements contained herein are based on current views and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Whilst Mirae Asset Investment Managers
(India) Private Limited (the AMC) shall have no responsibility/liability whatsoever for the accuracy or any use or reliance of such information. The AMC, its associate or sponsors or group companies, its Directors or employees accepts
no liability for any loss or damage of any kind resulting out of the use of this document. The recipient(s) before acting on any information herein should make his/her/their own investigation and seek appropriate professional advice
and shall alone be fully responsible / liable for any decision taken on the basis of information contained herein. Any reliance on the accuracy or use of such information shall be done only after consultation to the financial consultant
to understand the specific legal, tax or financial implications.

Please consult your financial advisor or Mutual Fund Distributor before investing

Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
02 MONTHLY EQUITY MARKET INSIGHT