SEC 4— CHAPTER 1: PROBABILITY Probability is a measure of how likely itis for an event E to happen. it is denoted by P(E). Number of favourable outcomes for evevnt E PE)= ® Total number of possible outcomes Page 1Easiest Example to Understand Probability Page 2Important Concepts: Addition of Probability For two mutually exclusive events A and B, the probability of A or B occurring is, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) Mutually exclusive means that the events cannot happen at the same time. ion of Probal Multiplic: lity If A and B are independent events, the probability of both events A and B occurring is r P(Aand B) = P(A) x P(B) Events A and B are independent events if the occurrence of one of them does not influence the occurrence of the other. Important Things to Note: With Replacement ys Without Replacement M Page 3Level T (@ A group of students was asked how they travelled to school this morning, Complete the following tree diagram. (2) 3 16 — Not late Public (transport Cy Late s Not late . ‘Walk: ( Late (b)_A student was chosen at random. Find the probability that the chosen student was 3). someone who took publie transport and was late, it) (ii) either someone who took public transport and was not late or someone who walked and was late rR) Maths Secrets Page 4Level 2: (At Least/Different) ‘A pack of 16 cards contains 4 cards of each of the colours red, blue, green and yellow. The four cards of each colour are numbered 1,2,3 and 4. (i) The pack is shuffled, and one card is drawn at random, Find, as a fraction, the probability that it is a red card numbered 4 or a blue card. [1] (ii) The card is replaced; the pack is shuffled again and two cards are drawn at random, Find, as a fraction, the probability that (a) They are both yellow, ty) (b) At least one is blue. (2) ‘A bag contains 3 red balls, 2 white balls and 1 blue ball. Two balls are taken from the bag at random, with replacement. Find the probability that (a) both balls are red, i) (b) the two balls are the same colour, 21 (©) the two balls are different colour. (1) Page SLevel 3: 1 ‘A drawer contains 2 blue socks and 6 white socks. Two socks are taken from the drawer at random without replacement. If the two socks are different colours, then a third sock is taken from the drawer. Otherwise, no third sock is taken. (i) Draw a tree diagram to show the probabilities of the possible outcomes. 2 (ii) Find, as a fraction in its simplest form, the probability that (a) the first two socks taken are white, 21 (b) a third sock is taken, and it is the same colour as the first sock. 21 Page 6ity Box Diagram TJ A bag contains six identical balls numbered 1,2,3,4,5 and 6. Two balls are drawn at random, one after the other, from the bag without replacement. (i) Draw the possibility diagram to show the outcome of the draw. i) (ii) Find, as a fraction in its simplest form, the probability that (a) Both balls have an even number, i) (b) The sum of the numbers drawn is 8, i) (©) The product of the numbers drawn is 7, i) (d) at least one of the numbers drawn is a multiple of 3 i) [N08] If you use Tree Diagram: That’s why, we learn a new diagram: Page 7ity Box Diagram 1] A bag contains six identical balls numbered 1,2,3,4,5 and 6. Two balls are drawn at random, one after the other, from the bag with replacement. (i) Draw the possibility diagram to show the outcome of the draw. i) (ii) Find, as a fraction in its simplest form, the probability that (a) Both balls have an even number, i) (b) The sum of the numbers drawn is 8, i) (©) The product of the numbers drawn is 7, i) (d) at least one of the numbers drawn is a multiple of 3 i) [N08] Ifyou use Tree Diagram: That’s why, we learn a new diagram: : Page 8==5 Page 9