Op First Two Weeks Block Classes
Op First Two Weeks Block Classes
Therefore, at each stage in the process, there is high need for feedback and control so as to
ensure that transformed value added products/services are of the pre-stated quality and / or
quantity.
Production process: A production process is the method of using economic input or resources, like
labor, capital equipment or land, to provide goods and services to consumers. The production process
typically covers how to efficiently and productively manufacture products for sale to reach customers
quickly without sacrificing the quality of the product.
Lecture NOTES Production/Operations Management for engineering class CATUC 2023/2024 Page 1
emphasizes producing individual finished goods that are distinct from one another. While
pharmaceutical and food and beverage industries adopt the process manufacturing method,
automobiles and smartphone manufacturers adopt a discrete manufacturing method.
Service operations: Service operation encompasses the day-to-day activities, processes, and
infrastructure responsible for delivering intangible value to the business through technology
which at times bring about a tangible product
No customer wants to pay for a service that does not perform as needed or is not available for
usage. Thus, the goal of service operation is to maintain day-to-day services to the point that
there are no issues. When issues do occur service operation principles dictate response based on
business priority.
Characteristics of Manufacturing
Characteristics of Services
Lecture NOTES Production/Operations Management for engineering class CATUC 2023/2024 Page 2
Summary: Consider the simple diagram below to capture Production/Operations
Management system
Revision question
Lecture NOTES Production/Operations Management for engineering class CATUC 2023/2024 Page 3
Production/Operations Management Strategy Development and Implementation
It is concerned with the pattern of strategic decisions and actions which set the role, objectives
and activities of operations for internal or external competitive business environment. Ultimate
benefits for developing strategy are to obtain competitive advantage from competitions.
Strategy helps for increasing competitiveness. Strategies always develop from the strength side
Strategy - It is an organization’s action plan to achieve the mission. - It exploit the opportunities
and strength, neutralize threats and avoid the weaknesses. - It concern with ―how to get
statement about the organization’s business scope and methods of competing. - It concern with
TYPES OF STRATEGY
Strategy Type 1.Competitive strategy - It is long term plan in order to gain competitive
Dependability - Produce and deliver its customer on time with agreed price
Quality - It is strategy to produce in accordance with specification and without error i.e. high
quality. Price or cost - It is strategy to produce at low cost and low price.
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Quick response - Quick deliver, short lead time, feedback
Flexibility - It is strategy to change operations that are: - Change the volume of production -
Change the time taken to produce - Mix of production - Innovate and introduce new products
cost
Strategy Type 2.Operational strategy is the combination of the follows aspects to gain
advantage
Product or service strategy - It is strategy related to product lifecycle, quality, size - It is plan
Competitive advantage implies the creation of a system that has a unique advantage over the
Competing on Response.
:
1. Costs - Low cost products - Producing high volume of standardized products to take
advantage over the costs and economic of scale. - Continuous search for cost reduction -
Lecture NOTES Production/Operations Management for engineering class CATUC 2023/2024 Page 5
Concern the low-cost leadership. This exactly what Chinese construction enterprises are
using.
the consumer perceives as adding value. - It can be achieve through broad product line,
3. Response - It is a set of values related to rapid, flexible and reliable performance and
Strategy Development and Implementation (Identify Critical Success Factors, A Global view
of Operations Cultural and Ethical Issues, Build and Staff the Organization, Integrate OM with
Other Activities)
Implementation of strategy is the process which turns strategies and plans into actions in order to
accomplish the strategic objectives and goals. Development of strategy generally involves the
environmental analysis, setting corporate mission and determining actions to execute the actions.
Strategy development is the extent to control mechanisms for guiding the implementation of the
strategy.
threats. - This step involves understanding the environment through SWOT, customers, industry
and competitors.
Lecture NOTES Production/Operations Management for engineering class CATUC 2023/2024 Page 6
2. Build a Corporate Mission - It means to state the reason for the firm’s existence. - And,
3. Form a Strategy - It means to build a competitive advantage such as low price, design or
volume flexibility, quality, quick response, delivery, dependability, after sale services or broad
product lines.
Activities)
1. Build and Staff Organization - It is a step to group the necessary activities into the
organizational structure. - Manager must staff the organization with personnel who will get the
job done. - Manager works with subordinates so must build plans, budgets and programs that
2. Integrate OM with Other Activities - To proper implement, the strategies must be supported
by the related activities. - Integrate the Operations with the marketing, financing, IT, supplies
etc.
Global View of operations and production management focus on - Reducing cost, Improving
supply chain, Attract & retain global talents , Improving operations Understanding market,
1. Reducing Cost - Many international operations seek to take advantage of the tangible
opportunities to reduce the costs. - Foreign location can help lower both direct and indirect costs.
- Moving productions to international market can save money, labour cost and tax benefit,
Lecture NOTES Production/Operations Management for engineering class CATUC 2023/2024 Page 7
2. Improving supply chain - the supply chain can often be improved by locating facilities in
countries where unique resources are available such as human resource expertise, low cost
materials and labour etc. - Thus, supply chain is a critical piece in an organization’s success. 4
3. Attract and Obtain global talents - Global organizations can attract and retain better
employees by offering the more employment opportunities. - Operations need people in all
functional areas and areas of expertise worldwide. - Global firm can recruit and retain good
employees because they provide both greater growth opportunities and insulation against
unemployment.
4. Improving Operations - Operations learn from better understanding of differences in the way
response time to meet customer through providing them with quick and adequate service and
5. Understanding Market - It is the reason to go into the global market which interactions with
foreign customers, suppliers, and other competitive business and international firms inevitably
6. Better goods and services - Global business can learn from business operations in other
countries to provide better goods and services through the taking advantages of being in their
location, market and business environment which automatically leads towards the quality
Lecture NOTES Production/Operations Management for engineering class CATUC 2023/2024 Page 8
Global Operations Strategy Options (International Strategy, Multi-domestic Strategy,
There are four different common strategies businesses use to expand internationally (Production
1. International strategy
2. Multidomestic strategy
3. Global strategy
4. Transnational strategy
Whichever is considered by an organization, key things they seek to achieve are Local
Local responsiveness refers to how companies serve a specific market’s needs — essentially,
how much do they change from market to market? This is not just about translating the website
or mobile app into a different language, but about the entire customer experience, from payment
Global integration, on the other hand, refers to the standardization companies achieve as they
scale. Brands that prioritize global integration have little to no differences between various
International strategy
products and services around the world. As such, it ranks low on both global integration and
local responsiveness.
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An international strategy is often the first strategy companies use when they expand to secondary
markets, and that’s because it’s the most accessible. It’s essentially an extension of your
domestic strategy, operating with a central or head office in your home market and exporting
The major advantage of this approach is that it’s a quick way to test out the global appeal of your
A multi-domestic strategy ranks high on local responsiveness and low on global integration,
making it the ―local-first‖ approach. Companies that employ a multi-domestic strategy change
their product, messaging, go-to-market, and customer support (among other things) based on
The greatest advantage to this is a highly specialized, localized product that directly matches
customer tastes and preferences, with employees on the ground in that market that understand the
products, and operations, so they can build repeatable, scalable processes no matter which
foreign market they operate in. That means having one brand, one suite of products, and one
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The advantage of this is that pursuing this strategy gives you an instantly recognizable global
brand with a step-by-step path toward global market penetration. Choosing this strategy allows
you to:
Streamline product development with one product line and minimal changes by market
Transnational strategy
Transnational businesses operate with a central or head office in one country (the global
integration part) and also employ local subsidiaries in international markets (the local
responsiveness part). That way, they get the best of both worlds: one overarching brand that
provides a cohesive structure and efficient center of operations while optimizing for local market
preferences and tastes as needed. Choosing this strategy allows you to:
market preferences
Centralize and streamline operations, getting the advantage from economies of scale
Be able to flex between a high-level strategic overview of investments without losing customer-
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AUTOMATION
Entry: let students explain their understanding of automation and give examples (in
the engineering fields) of automated systems they have experienced, how they
function etc
Let students identify an area in the engineering field needing automation and
suggest their thinking on how it should be done – To be completed as home work
by students
Meaning
It is the use of computers and other automated machinery for the execution of business related
tasks. It includes right from simple sensing devices to robots and other sophisticated equipment.
With increasing advances in technology, automation of business activities is more and more. For
example, if you go to banks in Commercial Avenue Bamenda, you will discover that the number
of tellers is reducing every day. This is simply because teller related jobs are gradually be
automated. You can now withdraw you cash using ATM machines, you can now link your Bank
account to mobile money account etc. Online banking is gradually on the rise. These are all
aspects of automation.
Generally, while automation is bringing about advantages like; reducing the production time,
increase manufacturing, flexibility, reduce costs, eliminate human error and labour shortage
problems, it is also associated with disadvantages like increasing unemployment or layoffs, some
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Facilitates efficient and detailed information through the use of computers
Increases the volume of work, scarcity of time and reduces the manual process.
Increases the goodwill and reputation of the firm because automation adds to the prestige
Types of Automation
a. Numerically Controlled (NC) Machines– It uses computers to store, calculate and execute
operations that are performed by hands. Eg: computerized numerical controlled mills.
b. Industrial Robots– It also helps in higher quality parts, reduced cycle times and increases
savings. They can work 24/7 to keep up the industrial demands. They can be suitable to work in
an environment which may be dangerous to humans. They perform tasks like welding, material
(NC) Machines, Industrial Robots and other types of automation into one automation system.
It produces similar products and parts but maintains flexibility to change parts or processes.
production planning and control. It also includes computer aided process planning (CAPP),
e. Support automation– It refers to the software packages which focuses on the routine work of
help desk personnel. It includes CAM, knowledge base applications for self service etc.,
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f. Run book automation– They define a set of items along with work flows through GUI. It
offers connectors and interfaces to existing items suitable for the user.
g. Policy based automation– This type of automation works on the basis of term policy for the
rules management. They provide a rich set of features for designing and managing policies.
h. IT-Workload automation– They allow the processing of job scheduling for improvement
and automate recurring tasks. They offer multi-platform compatibility, policy based execution
etc.,
i. Data centre automation– This is the fastest growing area in the recent world. It helps in
bringing the high demand for automated tools to provision, change and manage vast number of
components.
Advantages of Automation
1) Increases output and productivity: It increases the speed of work and reduces the
consumption of time taken for production of products. Since there is no intervention of labor
involved the goods passes from one process to another, smoothly and quickly.
2) Improves and enhances quality: The quality of goods produced is better when there is
automation .the goods pass through definite process till it comes out as finished goods. Thus
3) Consistency and uniformity in quality: The products produced are identical in nature. Since
all the raw materials are fed into the machines the finished goods are uniform in nature which is
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4) Reduction in cost per unit of output: Automation results in reduced total cost per unit of
output. When the goods are produced in a bulk cost per unit, will be low.
5) Lesser industrial accidents: Automation eliminates the use of labor force. Hence the number
6) Better production control: The speed of production increases the productivity. Since no
labor is involved control on production is easier. The machines are arranged in such a sequence
that raw materials pass from one process to another without human intervention. Thus production
can be controlled.
7) Ensures high safety: Since labor does not intervene in production working on machines
which all otherwise dangerous can be avoided. Proper safety measures are incorporated by
introduction of automation.
8) Reduces labor problem: Goods are produced without the involvement of men hence labor
Disadvantages of Automation
1. Heavy capital investments: Automation involves heavy capital investment. The cost of
3. Benefit of employee suggestion lost: Labor being displaced the benefits of suggestion from
employee is lost.
4. High cost of depreciation: Since automation eliminates labor, machines are used instead of
labor. Machines tend to depreciate every year. Therefore depreciation is high in automation.
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5. Not suitable for small firm: Since heavy investments are required in the automated plants, it
is not suitable for small industries. Moreover the expenses involved like power, consumption,
does not find a ready market, the pieces will fall and results will be disastrous.
countries. These countries are characterized by a high rate of unemployment scarcity of foreign
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MATERIALS MANAGEMENT
for planning, organizing and controlling all those activities concerned with the
organization to the point where those materials are connected into the end
products.
price
Establish and maintain good relations with the suppliers and customers
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Production and Material Control: Production manager prepares the
smoothly.
prices. Purchasing is a managerial activity that goes beyond the simple act of
buying and includes the planning and policy activities covering a wide range of
maintained as per the needs of the business. These stores may not be required
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Materials Handling: It is concerned with the movement of materials within a
control. It is also seen that there are no wastages or losses of materials during
materials, counting the units, determining their quality and sending them to
stores etc. The purchasing department is also informed about the receipt of
various materials.
Purchasing
what to buy, where to buy, when to buy, how much to buy and at what prices
to buy.
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The business must know it needs a new product, whether from internal or
external sources. The product may be one that needs to be reordered, or it may
The right product is critical for the company. Some industries have standards
to help determine specifications. Part numbers help identify these for some
have ordered the product in the past. If not, then the business must specify the
The business needs to determine where to obtain the product. The company
might have an approved vendor list. If not, the business will need to search for
magazines, the Internet or sales representatives. The company will qualify the
The business will investigate all relevant information to determine the best
price and terms for the product. This will depend on if the company needs
business will look into three suppliers before it makes a final decision.
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The purchase order is used to buy materials between a buyer and seller. It
specifically defines the price, specifications and terms and conditions of the
Step 6: Delivery
The purchase order must be delivered, usually by fax, mail, personally, email
Step 7: Expediting
materials delivered. It becomes especially important if there are any delays. The
issues most often noted include payment dates, delivery times and work
completion.
Once the sending company delivers the product, the recipient accepts or rejects
the items. Acceptance of the items obligates the company to pay for them.
Three documents must match when an invoice requests payment – the invoice
itself, the receiving document and the original purchase order. The agreement
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of these documents provides confirmation from both the receiver and supplier.
Any discrepancies must be resolved before the recipient pays the bill. Usually,
payment is made in the form of cash, check, bank transfers, or other types of
electronic transfers.
In the case of audits, the company must maintain proper records. These
include purchase records to verify any tax information and purchase orders to
well.
Principles of purchasing
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Selection of suppliers
It helps to have a quality inputs and also to offer quality products with less
cost. It is required to get all the information from them to evaluate according to
Cost.
Delivery.
Service.
Social Responsibility.
Convenience/Simplicity.
Risk.
Lecture NOTES Production/Operations Management for engineering class CATUC 2023/2024 Page 23
INVENTORY MANAGEMENT
Meaning
Inventory, often called merchandise, refers to goods and materials that a business holds for sale
to customers in the near future. It is a stock of physical goods that contain economic value and
transformation, sale in future. It includes raw materials, work-in-progress, finished goods and
Inventory Management can be defined as the systematic location of storage and recording of
goods. It is the control program which allows the management of sales, purchases and payments
Inventory balance
Inventory turnover
Repeat customer
Accurate planning
Warehousing organization
Employee efficiency
Inventory orders
Inventory tracking
Time saving
Cost cutting
Lecture NOTES Production/Operations Management for engineering class CATUC 2023/2024 Page 24
Materials handling system
Materials handling can be also defined as the function dealing with the preparation, placing and
methods, facilities, labor and equipment for moving, packaging and storing the materials to meet
specific objectives. It involves movement of materials from one place to another place for the
purpose of processing.
Equipment factors to be taken into consideration may well include the following:
1. Adaptability: The load carrying and movement characteristics of the equipment should fit the
2. Flexibility: Where possible the equipment should have flexibility to handle more than one
3. Load capacity: Equipment selected should have great enough load carrying characteristics to
do the job effectively, yet should not be too large and result in excessive operating costs.
5. Speed: Rapidity of movement of material, within the limits of the production process or plant
6. Space requirements: The space required to install or operate materials handling equipment is
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7. Supervision required: As applied to equipment selection, this refers to the degree of
Any activity in an organization has as objective to support the processes necessary for the
creation of utility (goods and services), needed to keep the organization in business. Specifically.
2. Minimize delays and interruptions by making available the materials at the point of use at
3. Increase the productive capacity of the production facilities by effective utilization of capacity
Lecture NOTES Production/Operations Management for engineering class CATUC 2023/2024 Page 26
Principles of materials handling
Recall: Materials handling can be also defined as the function dealing with the preparation,
combination of methods, facilities, labor and equipment for moving, packaging and storing the
materials to meet specific objectives. It involves movement of materials from one place to
2. Systems principle: Plan a system integrating as many handling activities as possible and
coordinating the full scope of operations (receiving, storage, production, inspection, packing,
6. Material flow principle: Plan an operation sequence and equipment arrangement to optimise
material flow.
equipment.
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10. Standardisation principle: Standardise method, types, size of material handling equipment.
11. Flexibility principle: Use methods and equipment that can perform a variety of task and
applications.
12. Equipment selection principle: Consider all aspect of material, move and method to be
utilised.
13. Dead weight principle: Reduce the ratio of dead weight to pay load in mobile equipment.
14. Motion principle: Equipment designed to transport material should be kept in motion.
15. Idle time principle: Reduce idle time/unproductive time of both equipment and man power.
16. Maintenance principle: Plan for preventive maintenance or scheduled repair of all handling
equip
Given that resources (especially financial resources) are scarce, the following economic
Cost of installation, rearrangement and alterations to utilize equipment and building etc.
Depreciation rate.
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Probable salvage value of equipment at the end of its useful life.
License fees (for vehicles that may operate outside the factory or on highways).
Increased production expected by use of handling equipment. Savings that the equipment
Lecture NOTES Production/Operations Management for engineering class CATUC 2023/2024 Page 29
Facility or Layout Planning and Analysis: (Business Process Modeling),
Facilities are the plant and the office within which a production and operations manager does its
work. In addition to the buildings and the spaces that are built, bought, or rented, facilities also
include equipment used in the plant and the office. There are four main components of facilities
planning and they strongly interact with each other. These four include:
1. Where to locate the plant, or the branch, or the warehouse? This is a regional
determination.
2. The issue is to find the specific structure and site to use.
3. The design the layout.
4. The furniture, lighting, decorative features, and equipment for doing the job.
In fact, these four components interact, and none of them can be considered exclusive of the
others. A great amount of expertise and management ability is required for facilities planning. A
better job is done by broad-based visionaries and generalists who know how to work together as
a team. The systems point of view has never been shown to be a weakness.
1. Location of facilities. Where, in the geographical sense, should the various operations be
located? Location can apply to only one facility but more generally includes a number of
locations for doing different things. Thus, ―where is it best to . . .‖ fabricate and assemble
each product, locate the service center, situate the sales offices, and position the
administration? These decisions impact the supply chain in many ways.
Many location factors have to be dealt with in a qualitative fashion. Common sense
prevails. Qualitative factors such as being near to supplies of raw materials and/or
sources of skilled labor or with being close to customers. The options may be to choose
one over the other or to compromise with an in-between location. There are similar
problems for distributors who want to be located close by all kinds of transportation
facilities (road, rail, airports, and marine docks). Other location factors are better dealt
with in a quantitative fashion because common sense does not work. For example, if a
transportation analysis is made manageable by dividing the problem into regional sub-
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problems, the solution may be seriously suboptimal (far from being the best that is
possible).
At the same time, there are strategic issues concerning centralization or decentralization
of facilities. Should there be a factory in each country? Would a central warehouse be
more desirable than regional warehouses or can they both be used to an advantage? Such
decisions might be best reached with a combination of qualitative and quantitative
considerations.
2. Structure and specific site selection. In what kind of facility should the process be
located? How should the building or space be chosen? Is it best for the company to build
the facility, buy, or rent it? Choice of a specific building is often decided after the
location is chosen. However, there are circumstances where the location, site, and
structure should be considered together. This makes structure and site decisions complex
problems best resolved by using the systems approach.
3. Equipment choice. What kind of process technology is to be used? This decision often
dominates structure and site options. In turn, there may be environmental factors that
limit the choice of locations.
4. Layout of the facility. Where should machines and people be placed in the plant or
office? There is interaction of equipment choice with layout, structure, site, and location.
The size of the facility is determined by both current needs and future projections to
allow for growth.
Best location is related to the function of the facility and the characteristics of its products and
services. Two notions (The need to Enhance Service Contact and Just-in-Time Orientation
Notion) are at the center of these decisions
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mobile money accounts to bank accounts. This is commonly referred to as online
banking.
However, it may interest us in this MBA class in CATUC to highlight and think about
this. WHAT ABOUT LOCATING HOTELS in residential areas, will the use be more
by those staying around or those not staying around it? And why? .The central issue lies
in making contact with customers successful
1. Process inputs. Closeness to sources is often important. The transportation costs of bringing
materials and components to be processed from distant locations can harm profit margins.
2. Process outputs. Being close to customers can provide competitive advantages. Among these
are lower transport costs for shipping finished goods and the ability to satisfy customers’ needs
and respond rapidly to competitive pricing—which can provide market advantages.
3. Process requirements. There can be needs for special resources that are not available in all
locations (i.e., water, energy, and labor skills).
4. Personal preferences. Location decision makers, including top management, have personal
biases for being in certain locations that can override economic advantages of other alternatives.
5. Governmental issues. Tax, tariff, trade, and legal factors usually matter. Trade agreements
and country laws are increasingly important in reaching global location decisions.
6. Site and plant availabilities. The interaction between the location and the available facilities
makes location and structure-site decisions interdependent.
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Facilities Layout
Layout is the physical arrangement of facilities within a manufacturing plant or a service facility.
The layout of a plant specifies where various machines and equipment will be placed. Layout
affects the productivity and materials handling cost within the plant
Principle of overall integration (of man, materials, machine, supporting activities, etc)
Principle of minimum distance between operations
Principle of flow (arranging machines according to the sequence of operations)
Principle of cubic space
Principle of satisfaction and safety
Principle of flexibility of rearrangement at a minimum cost
Types of Layouts
2. Job shop process layouts. Similar types of equipment or jobs are grouped together. The lathes
are in one place and the presses in another. Job shop process layouts should facilitate processing
many different types of work in relatively small lots. Mobility of equipment enables
Production/Operations Managers to set up intermittent (alternating) flow shops when a
configuration is attainable. Space must be allocated for work completed at one station and
waiting for access to another station. Equipment mobility and layout flexibility allow this
configuration to be rearranged to suit the various order mixtures that can occur.
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3. Product or Assembly Oriented Layouts − This layout is designed in a linear fashion. The
work stations or work benches are located in a sequence where products manufacturing is carried
out one step after the other. This layout is excellent for the mass production. If there is a demand
to change the product design or appearance, then this layout cannot address the demand
smoothly.
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4. Cellular Layout
Cellular manufacturing is a type of layout where machines are grouped according to the process
requirements for a set of similar items (part families) that require similar processing. Therefore, a
cellular layout is an equipment layout configured to support cellular manufacturing.
NB: Layouts are affected by types of industry, production systems, types of products,
volume of production, and types of manufacturing processes used to get the final products.
Lecture NOTES Production/Operations Management for engineering class CATUC 2023/2024 Page 35
Overall satisfaction & simplification which will result in full utilization, minimum delay
and congestion, ease in maintenance, and low manufacturing time.
Increased production, safer working conditions, well ventilated rooms, clean environment
Increased flexibility for changes in product design, future expansion, and optimal use of
space.
A good layout provides maximum satisfaction to the employees, management, and share
holders.
Suitable spaces are allocated to production centers and service centers.
Working conditions are safer, better (well ventilated rooms, etc.) and improved.
Layout Redesigning
After setting up your desired layout, business operations will start moving smoothly. There will
come a time when it will be necessary to redesign your layout. The question is HOW WILL
YOU KNOW IT’S TIME TO REDESIGN YOUR LAYOUT? Below are a few reasons that
may suggest the requirement and necessity of redesigning an existing layout:
Making changes in the design or process of the product without required layout changes
The building is not suitable as per the requirement
A decline in production in a particular area
Idle time and delays that cannot be explained
Installing supporting equipment without taking consideration of link with the existing or
current flow pattern
Problems related to stock control
Movement of material by a lot of people
Production bottlenecks
A huge temporary storage
Problems in the flow of materials
Troubles in scheduling
Idle equipment and people
A great amount of time being used in the process
Hazards for safety or accident
Introducing new products or services
Lecture NOTES Production/Operations Management for engineering class CATUC 2023/2024 Page 36
FORECASTING IN PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
Forecasting is simply a projection of how the future might look like based upon past data and / or
current events. Thus it is an estimation of the event which will or may happen in future.
Basically, there are two types of forecasting- short term and long term forecasting.
Short Term forecasting is the forecasting that made for short term objectives covering less than
one year. Examples: Material Requirement Planning (MRP), scheduling, sequencing, budgeting
Long Term Forecasting is the forecasting that made for long term objectives covering more
than five years. Examples: Product development and Product diversification, sales and
advertisement.
We cannot know with certainty the future of our business in terms of demand and / or
supply needs. But we need continue of business with hope of it growing. This results in
the strategic importance of forecasting in our businesses. For example the African Cup of
Nations will be played in Cameroon come January 2022. Most Hotels/Motel etc in
Yaounde, Douala, Limbe etc only know that visitors will be coming in but they do not yet
know what the situation will actually look like. Therefore they have to forecast as an
effort not to be taken unaware. Thus the strategic importance of forecasting sets in
because:
When there is a time lag between awareness of an impending event or need and
occurrence of that event. This lead time is the main reason of planning and forecasting.
Planning is the fundamental activity of management. But planning alone is impossible
because forecasting forms the basis of planning.
It is essential for an organization to know for what level of activities before investments
in input (commitment of resources).
Lecture NOTES Production/Operations Management for engineering class CATUC 2023/2024 Page 37
Benefits, Cost implications and Decision making using forecasting
As there may be many benefits when decision making is done based on accurate forecast data,
there are only cost implications. Saying whether decisions made based on anticipations are
beneficiary or not may only be judged when the forecast period has elapsed.
Thus the key forecasting elements that must always be considered when doing forecasting
analysis so as to minimize negative consequences include:
a) Internal Factors
b) External factors that can be either relatively controllable (suppliers) or uncontrollable
(Government, Consumers, Competitors)
Methods of Forecasting
Forecasting Techniques
No single method is superior
Trend
Sales Force Projections
Composite
Decomposition
Consumer
Market
Survey
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Delphi Method: Interactive group process consisting of obtaining information from a
group of respondents through questionnaires and surveys
Sales Force Composite: Allows each sales person to estimate the sales for his/her region
and then compiles the data at a district or national level
Moving average methods: Consist of computing an average of the most recent n data
values for the time series and using this average for the forecast of the next period.
Moving average can either be simple or weighted
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Exponential smoothing is a type of moving average technique that involves little record
keeping of past data. With this method,
Trend projections are used to forecast time-series data that exhibit a linear trend.
Least squares may be used to determine a trend projection for future forecasts.
Least squares determine the trend line forecast by minimizing the mean squared error
between the trend line forecasts and the actual observed values.
The independent variable is the time period and the dependent variable is the actual
observed value in the time series.
Decomposition is the process of isolating linear trend and seasonal factors to develop more
accurate forecasts.
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Note need be taken that determining the forecast error is always very important allow one to see
how well the forecast model works and compare that model with other forecast models.
= |forecast errors|
n
Mean Squared Error (MSE)
2
= (errors)
n
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
= error
actual
100
n
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Applications: Assume in March 2022, the following data is provided as concerns forecast and
realization of construction facilities ( number of hotel rooms to be completed in all the game sites
per month) in preparation for CAN 2022 in Cameroon. Compute the MAD, MSE, and MAPE
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Solution
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Computing moving averages
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Weighted Moving Average
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More application Examples: See tutorial sheet
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Forecasting and Product Life Cycle
The product life cycles are composed of four stages that appear in a regular way over time. All
products and services go through the following stages:
At each of the stages, business survival is highly linked to forecasting abilities of production and
operations managers. Thus continuous monitoring of the business environment (macro and
micro) is at the center of business decision making.
During the introduction and growth stages, productions and operations management activities are
centered to deal with producing larger and larger quantities of product and ensuring that sales are
increasing. Thus forecast efforts are focused on getting the right raw materials in sufficient
quantities so that the production department will be able to make products available as at when
needed. At same time, marketing forecast efforts try to build a good relationship with customers.
Note that during the introduction, the demand is led by the desire to ―fill the pipeline.‖ This
means getting product into the stores or into warehouses or wherever it must be to supply the
customers. Thus expenditures usually are high to bring the new product to the distributors,
retailers, and customers. At this stage and with the thinking of one day arriving maturity, the
trick is to estimate how fast demand will increase over time and for how long.
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When decline is inevitable, as the product begins to lose share, volume drops, management
forecast efforts should be more on replacement that is on the new product that was introduced at
the later stages of maturity.
It is important to note that at each of the stages, the forecasting efforts should always be guided
by the vision and mission of the organization and thus seek answers to the following questions;
How much product will be needed to keep the supply lines filled to meet the demand during
growth?
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