Tutorial-5

Probability Distribution (Geometric and Exponential Distribution)

1. The lifetime of a certain electronic component follows an exponential distribution with a
mean of 1000 hours. What is the probability that a randomly selected component will last
more than 1200 hours?
Solution:
Step 1: Identify the parameter λ. For exponential distribution, λ = 1/mean = 1/1000 = 0.001.
Step 2: Use the survival function: P(X > x) = e^(-λx)
Step 3: P(X > 1200) = e^(-0.001 * 1200) ≈ 0.3012 Therefore, the probability is about 30.12%.
2. If the average time between earthquakes in a region is 10 years and follows an
exponential distribution, what is the probability of experiencing an earthquake in the
next 5 years?
Solution:
Step 1: λ = 1/10 = 0.1 (earthquakes per year)
Step 2: We want P(X ≤ 5), which is 1 - P(X > 5)
Step 3: P(X > 5) = e^(-0.1 * 5) = e^(-0.5) ≈ 0.6065
Step 4: P(X ≤ 5) = 1 - 0.6065 ≈ 0.3935 Therefore, the probability is about 39.35%.
3. The time (in minutes) a customer spends on hold during a call to a service center follows
an exponential distribution with λ = 0.2. What is the expected time a customer spends
on hold?
Solution:
Step 1: For exponential distribution, E[X] = 1/λ
Step 2: E[X] = 1/0.2 = 5 minutes Therefore, the expected time on hold is 5 minutes.
4. Using the same scenario as question 3, what is the probability that a customer will spend
between 2 and 5 minutes on hold?
Solution:
Step 1: We need to find P(2 < X < 5)
Step 2: P(2 < X < 5) = P(X < 5) - P(X < 2)
Step 3: P(X < x) = 1 - e^(-λx)
Step 4: P(X < 5) = 1 - e^(-0.2 * 5) ≈ 0.6321
Step 5: P(X < 2) = 1 - e^(-0.2 * 2) ≈ 0.3297
Step 6: P(2 < X < 5) = 0.6321 - 0.3297 ≈ 0.3024 Therefore, the probability is about 30.24%.
5. The lifetime of a light bulb follows an exponential distribution with a mean of 1000
hours. What is the median lifetime of these light bulbs?
Solution:
Step 1: For exponential distribution, median = ln(2) / λ
Step 2: λ = 1/1000 = 0.001
Step 3: Median = ln(2) / 0.001 ≈ 693.15 hours Therefore, the median lifetime is about 693.15
hours.
Geometric Distribution
 6. A basketball player has a 70% chance of making a free throw. What is the probability
that he makes his first basket on the third attempt?
Solution:
Step 1: This follows a geometric distribution with p = 0.7
Step 2: P(X = k) = (1-p)^(k-1) * p
Step 3: P(X = 3) = (1-0.7)^(3-1) * 0.7 = 0.3^2 * 0.7 = 0.063 Therefore, the probability is 6.3%.
7. A salesperson makes cold calls until she gets her first sale. If her probability of making
a sale on each call is 0.2, what is the expected number of calls she needs to make to get
her first sale?
Solution:
Step 1: For geometric distribution, E[X] = 1/p
Step 2: E[X] = 1/0.2 = 5 Therefore, the expected number of calls is 5.
8. Using the same scenario as question 7, what is the probability that the salesperson will
make her first sale within her first 4 calls?
Solution:
Step 1: We need to find P(X ≤ 4)
Step 2: P(X ≤ 4) = 1 - P(X > 4) = 1 - (1-p)^4
Step 3: P(X ≤ 4) = 1 - (1-0.2)^4 = 1 - 0.8^4 ≈ 0.5904 Therefore, the probability is about 59.04%.
9. A student keeps flipping a fair coin until she gets heads. What is the probability that she
will need to flip the coin more than 3 times?
Solution:
Step 1: This follows a geometric distribution with p = 0.5
Step 2: We need to find P(X > 3) = 1 - P(X ≤ 3)
Step 3: P(X ≤ 3) = 1 - (1-p)^3 = 1 - 0.5^3 = 0.875
Step 4: P(X > 3) = 1 - 0.875 = 0.125 Therefore, the probability is 12.5%.
10. In a manufacturing process, each item has a 5% chance of being defective. What is the
probability that the 10th item inspected is the first defective one found?
Solution:
Step 1: This follows a geometric distribution with p = 0.05
Step 2: P(X = k) = (1-p)^(k-1) * p
Step 3: P(X = 10) = (1-0.05)^(10-1) * 0.05 = 0.95^9 * 0.05 ≈ 0.0315 Therefore, the probability
is about 3.15%.
11. The time between arrivals of customers at a store follows an exponential distribution with
a mean of 10 minutes. What is the probability that in a one-hour period, exactly 5 customers
arrive?
Solution:
Step 1: This is a combination of exponential and Poisson distributions. The number of arrivals
in a fixed time period follows a Poisson distribution.
Step 2: λ for exponential distribution = 1/10 = 0.1 customers per minute
Step 3: For a one-hour period, λ = 0.1 * 60 = 6 customers per hour
Step 4: Now we use Poisson distribution: P(X = k) = (λ^k * e^(-λ)) / k!
Step 5: P(X = 5) = (6^5 * e^(-6)) / 5! ≈ 0.1606 Therefore, the probability is about 16.06%.
12. A geometric random variable X has P(X ≤ 3) = 0.875. Find the value of p for this
distribution.
Solution:
Step 1: For geometric distribution, P(X ≤ k) = 1 - (1-p)^k
Step 2: 0.875 = 1 - (1-p)^3
Step 3: 0.125 = (1-p)^3
Step 4: ∛0.125 = 1-p
Step 5: 1 - ∛0.125 = p
Step 6: p = 1 - 0.5 = 0.5 Therefore, p = 0.5.
13. The lifetime of a certain type of battery follows an exponential distribution. If 30% of these
batteries last longer than 100 hours, what is the expected lifetime of these batteries?
Solution:
Step 1: We know P(X > 100) = 0.30
Step 2: For exponential distribution, P(X > x) = e^(-λx)
Step 3: 0.30 = e^(-100λ)
Step 4: ln(0.30) = -100λ
Step 5: λ = -ln(0.30) / 100 ≈ 0.0120
Step 6: Expected lifetime = E[X] = 1/λ ≈ 1/0.0120 ≈ 83.33 hours Therefore, the expected
lifetime is about 83.33 hours.