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Tutorial 4

The document contains a tutorial on probability and random processes with five questions addressing various scenarios involving probability mass functions (pmf), expected values, and independent trials. Topics include analyzing message types in a service center, waiting times for coin flips, probabilities of acquiring pictures from cereal boxes, cellular phone call setups, and a game involving real numbers. Each question requires the determination of pmfs, expected values, and conditions for validity.

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Dominic Dasing Mojuntin
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57 views5 pages

Tutorial 4

The document contains a tutorial on probability and random processes with five questions addressing various scenarios involving probability mass functions (pmf), expected values, and independent trials. Topics include analyzing message types in a service center, waiting times for coin flips, probabilities of acquiring pictures from cereal boxes, cellular phone call setups, and a game involving real numbers. Each question requires the determination of pmfs, expected values, and conditions for validity.

Uploaded by

Dominic Dasing Mojuntin
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

KE36803 Probability and Random Processes

Tutorial 4

Question No. 1
Messages that arrive at a service center for an information systems manufacturer have been
classified on the basis of the number of keywords (used to help route messages) and the type of
message, either email or voice. Also, 70% of the messages arrive via email and the rest are voice.

number of keywords 0 1 2 3 4
email 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2
voice 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0

Determine the probability mass function of the number of keywords in a message and the expected
value of the number of keywords.

1
Question No. 2
Consider independent trials of an experiment which consists of flipping a fair coin. Let the random
variable X denote the waiting time until the first agreement of two successive flips. That is, X is
the number of trials required to observe either HH or TT for the first time. This number includes
the (last) two trials that result in HH or TT.

a. Determine the pmf of X.

b. What are the conditions to ensure a given pmf to be valid? Test the conditions for the pmf
found in part (a) of this question.

c. Sketch the CDF of X from X = 0 to 5.

d. Determine the expected value of X.

2
Question No. 3
Each box of UMS Cornflakes, the breakfast of gold medalists, contains a picture of either Dr. Pat or
Dr. Rachel. The purchase of each box of UMS Cornflakes can be regarded as an independent trial
of an experiment on which events P and R occur with probabilities ¼ and ¾ respectively. Let X
denote the number of pictures of Dr. Pat till the experimenter has acquired at least one picture
of each woman. Determine the pmf of X and the expected value of X

3
Question No. 4
When someone presses “SEND” on a cellular phone, the phone attempts to set up a call by
transmitting a “SETUP” message to a nearby base station. The phone waits for a response and if
none arrives within 0.5 seconds it tries again. If it does not get a response after n tries, the
phone stops transmitting messages and generates a busy signal.

(a) Assume all transmissions are independent and the probability is p that a “SETUP” message will get
through.
i. Determine the probability mass function (PMF) of K, the number of messages transmitted in
a call attempt in terms of p and n.

ii. Show that the PMF determined in part i. is a valid PMF.

(b) As manager of a cellular phone system, you want the probability of a busy signal to be less than
0.01. If p = 0.9, determine the value of n necessary to achieve your goal.

4
Question No. 5
Sekina wants Rinoe to play “Doctor-Doctor” with her, much to Rinoe’s disgust. To decide if Rinoe
should play or not, they play this game: Sekina picks a real number uniformly distributed
between 1 and 3, and Rinoe independently picks a real number uniformly distributed between 1
and 6. They both tell Gary their numbers. If Rinoe’s number falls between Sekina’s number and
twice her number, he loses.

(a) Find the probability that Rinoe loses.

(b) They decide to play a “best-of-three” set, i.e., the first person to win 2 games out of three wins.
If the random variable N denotes the number of games played before someone wins, find the
pmf of N.

(c) Find the expected number of games played, E[N].

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