Economic Growth and Living Standards Analysis
Economic Growth and Living Standards Analysis
Standards
February 9, 2025
Guanliang Hu
Some Facts Determinants Why Not All Rich? Growth Policies Other Issues
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Long-run Economic Growth
When we speak of long-run economic growth, we mean the pro-
cess by which rising productivity increases the average standard of
living.
This is in contrast to the short-run swings in the economy inher-
ent to the business cycle, the alternating periods of economic
expansion and economic recession.
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Living Standards
Health
Leisure
Quantity, quality, and variety of goods and services
As the growth of the economy, we can enjoy
• larger quantity of goods and services (e.g., number of cars, phones,
PCs per household ...)
• higher quality of goods and services (e.g., smartphones have evolved
over the years with better displays, faster processors, enhanced
camera capabilities)
• more new products (i.e. more varieties), (e.g., from horse-drawn
carriages to motor vehicles and subsequently to electric vehicles )
...
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Living Standards - Health (over time)
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Living Standards - Health (cross countries)
In high-income countries, 6 or fewer out of 1,000 babies die by a
year of age.
In the poorest countries, the rate is more than 50 out of 1,000.
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Living Standards - Leisure
Another good measure of our economic prosperity is the amount of
time we can spend on leisure.
As our lifespan grows, we can spend more time on leisure; and also,
as we grow more productive, we can devote less time to work, and
hence more to leisure.
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Economic Growth over Time
The most commonly used measure of this average standard of living
is real GDP per capita: the amount of production in the economy, per
person, adjusted for changes in the price level.
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Economic Growth over Time: Discussion
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Growth over Long Periods
Compound interest pays interest on the original deposit and all
previously accumulated interest
Given the annual interest rate i%:
t
How much will you have after t years = Original deposit × (1 + i%)
| {z }
Multiply by (1+i%) t times
Real GDP per capita in year x + t = Real GDP per capita in year x × (1 + g%)
t
| {z }
Multiply by (1+g%) t times
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Effects of Different Growth Rates on Living Standards
Real GDP per Capita Growth in Real GDP per Capita Real GDP per Capita
Country
1960 (2011 U.S. dollars) 1960-2017 2017 (2011 U.S. dollars)
Nigeria $3,965 0.2% $4,375
Namibia $4,582 1.6% $11,142
Turkey $4,688 3.1% $26,650
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Years to Double - the Rule of 70
70
Years to double =
g
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(Optional) Derivation of the Rule of 70
g% = growth rate
T = Number of years to double
g T
Double in T years means 2 = 1 × 1 + 100
Taking log on both sides and solving for T gives the rule of 70:
ln(2) 0.7 70
T = g ≈ g =
ln 1 + 100 100
g
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GDP per Capita in 2022 for Each of the World’s Areas
The figure shows GDP per capita in 2022 for each of the world’s na-
tions, adjusted for differences in the cost of living.
The current large differences in GDP per capita can come from a (rel-
atively) small difference in long-term growth rates
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Real GDP per Person, 1870-2010 (in U.S. Dollars)
In the U.S., real GDP per capita has risen more than eight-fold
since 1900; Roughly speaking, the average American can buy
more than eight times as many goods and services now as in
1900.
Growth rates vary enormously across countries over long periods
of time.
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Differences in Incomes across Countries
Many countries are still poor in term of real GDP per capita; and
the gap is increasing.
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Differences in Incomes across Countries (Conti.)
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What Determines the Rate of Long-Run Growth?
⇒
Number of workers
Labor productivity × = Real GDP Per capita
Population | {z }
Y /POP
| {z }
N/POP
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U.S. Real GDP per Person, 1960-2019
The U.S. Real GDP per Person tripled from 1960 to 2019, which
is a 200% increase.
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U.S. Population Employed and Labor Force Participa-
tion Rate, 1960-2019
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Trends in the Labor Force by Gender
The labor force participation rate of adult men has declined gradually
since 1948. But it has increased significantly for adult women, making
the overall rate higher today than it was then.
Recently, the rate for women has declined also.
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U.S. Real GDP per Person and Average Labor Produc-
tivity, 1960-2019
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Determinants of Average Labor Productivity
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#1 Land and Other Natural Resources
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#2 Physical Capital
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Diminishing Returns to Capital
But at a decreasing rate: diminishing returns to capital
the value of marginal product is decreasing
Diminishing returns to capital occurs if an addition of capital with
other inputs held constant increases output by less than the pre-
vious increment of capital
Assumption: all inputs except capital are held constant
Result: output increases at a decreasing rate
When a firm has many machines, the most productive uses have
already been filled
The increment in capital will necessarily be assigned to a less pro-
ductive use than the previous increment
Candy factory owner employs two people and adds capital
Each machine requires at least one dedicated operator
Number of Machines Output per Week Hours Worked per Week Candies per Hour Worked
0 16,000 80 200
1 32,000 80 400
2 40,000 80 500
3 40,000 80 500
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Per-worker Production Function
Increasing capital will increase output and labor productivity
Positive contribution to growth
There are limits to increasing productivity by adding capital be-
cause of diminishing returns
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Quiz
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Quiz
Based on the accompanying table and assuming that returns to cap-
ital are positive but diminishing, then total packages wrapped when a
fourth machine is installed must be packages.
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#3 Human Capital
Some Facts Determinants Why Not All Rich? Growth Policies Other Issues
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#4 Technology
Some Facts Determinants Why Not All Rich? Growth Policies Other Issues
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Productivity Puzzle
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#5 Entrepreneurship and Management
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#6 Political and Legal Environment
Some Facts Determinants Why Not All Rich? Growth Policies Other Issues
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Neoclassical Economic Growth Model
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The Catch-up Predicted by the Economic Growth Model
If poorer areas grow faster than richer ones, they will start to catch up
to, or converge to, the richer countries.
Catch-up: the prediction that the level of GDP per capita (or income
per capita) in poor areas will grow faster than in rich areas.
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There Has Been Catch-up among High-Income Areas
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Most of the World Hasn’t Been Catching Up
However if we extend the set of areas to all areas for which statistics
are available, our catch-up model appears to be worthless.
We need to address the failures of the catch-up model.
Some Facts Determinants Why Not All Rich? Growth Policies Other Issues
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Why isn’t the Whole World Rich?
The economic growth model predicts that poor countries will grow
faster than rich countries. This is because:
The effect of additional capital is greater for countries with smaller
capital stocks
There are greater advances in technology immediately available
to poorer countries
Economists point to four key factors in explaining why many low-income
countries are growing so slowly:
Low rates of saving and investment (related to physical capital)
Poor public education and health (related to human capital)
Wars and revolutions (related to political environment)
Failure to enforce the rule of law (related to legal environment and
entrepreneurship)
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Reasons for Lack of Growth in Poor Countries
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Failure to Enforce the Rule of Law
The rule of law refers to the ability of a government to enforce the laws
of the country, particularly with respect to protecting private property
and enforcing contracts.
For entrepreneurs in a market economy to succeed, the government
must guarantee property rights
Otherwise, entrepreneurs will not risk starting a business
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Why Hasn’t Mexico Grown as Fast as China?
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Promote Growth with Savings and Investment
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Promote Growth with Human Capital
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Promote Growth with R&D Support (technology)
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Promote Growth with Political and Legal Environment
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Costs of Capital Accumulation to Foster Economic Growth
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Limits to Growth
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Is Economic Growth Good or Bad?
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Quiz 1
Quizzes
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Quiz 1
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Quiz 2
If real GDP per person were equal to $4,000 in 1900 and grew at a 1
percent annual rate, what would be the value of real GDP per person
100 years later?
A) $4,200
B) $8,000
C) $10,819
D) $40,000
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Quiz 2
If real GDP per person were equal to $4,000 in 1900 and grew at a 1
percent annual rate, what would be the value of real GDP per person
100 years later?
A) $4,200
B) $8,000
C) $10,819
D) $40,000
Answer: (C); At one percent growth, the future value equation is: Fu-
ture GDP = $4,000 ×1.01100 = $10,819.
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Quiz 3
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Quiz 3
Answer: (D); The long-run rate of economic growth best explains changes
in standards of living in countries around the world.
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Quiz 4
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Quiz 4
Answer: (D); To find real GDP per person, multiply the average output
each worker produces times the percentage of population employed.
Real GDP per person can only grow if one of these factors increases.
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Quiz 5
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Quiz 5
Answer: (A); To find real GDP per person, which gives the standard
of living, multiply the average output each worker produces times the
percentage of population employed. In this case, real GDP per person
equals ($32,000 × 0.60) = $19,200.
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Quiz 6
A) 12.5 percent
B) 25 percent
C) 75 percent
D) 100 percent
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Quiz 6
Suppose that the share of population employed in Country C is 50
percent, and that Countries C and D have the same real GDP per
capita. Based on the information in the table, what share of Country
D’s population must be employed?
A) 12.5 percent
B) 25 percent
C) 75 percent
D) 100 percent
Answer: (B); To find real GDP per person, multiply the average output each worker produces times
the percentage of population employed. In this case, average labor productivity in Country C is
$25,000 and share of population employed is 0.50, so real GDP per person is $12,500. For Country
D to also have real GDP per person of $12,500, then the share of population working × the average
labor productivity of $50,000 must be $12,500. Solving for the share of population working, by
dividing each side by the real GDP, we get $12,500/$50,000 = 0.25, or 25 percent.
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Quiz 7
In the long run, increases in output per person arise primarily from
A) increases in female labor force participation.
B) increases in male labor force participation.
C) an increasing proportion of the population retiring.
D) increases in average labor productivity.
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Quiz 7
In the long run, increases in output per person arise primarily from
A) increases in female labor force participation.
B) increases in male labor force participation.
C) an increasing proportion of the population retiring.
D) increases in average labor productivity.
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Quiz 8
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Quiz 8
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Quiz 9
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Quiz 9
Answer: (C); Countries with small amounts of capital per worker suffer
from low productivity; this results in low real GDP per person.
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Quiz 10
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Quiz 10
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Quiz 11
Alpha has $40,000 of capital per worker, while Beta has $5,000 of
capital per worker. In all other respects, the two countries are the
same. According to the principle of diminishing returns to capital, an
additional unit of capital will increase output in Alpha compared
to Beta, holding other factors constant.
A) more
B) less
C) not at all
D) by the same amount
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Quiz 11
Alpha has $40,000 of capital per worker, while Beta has $5,000 of
capital per worker. In all other respects, the two countries are the
same. According to the principle of diminishing returns to capital, an
additional unit of capital will increase output in Alpha compared
to Beta, holding other factors constant.
A) more
B) less
C) not at all
D) by the same amount
Answer: (B); Since Alpha starts out with more capital per worker, the
marginal increase in worker output in Alpha is less than the marginal
increase in Beta (where workers have much less capital to begin with).
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Quiz 12
A) more than 26
B) more than 12
C) less than 27
D) less than 25
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Quiz 12
Based on the accompanying table and assuming that returns to cap-
ital are positive but diminishing, then total packages wrapped when a
fourth machine is installed must be packages.
A) more than 26
B) more than 12
C) less than 27
D) less than 25
Answer: (C); The marginal return to the first machine was 20 packages, the marginal return to
the second machine was 3 packages (23-20), and the marginal return to the third machine was 2
packages (25- 23). Thus, the marginal return to the third machine has to be less than 2 packages,
which makes the total less than 27 packages.
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Quiz 13
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Quiz 13
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Quiz 14
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Quiz 14
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Quiz 15
A political system that promotes the free and open exchange of ideas
A) will not have well-defined property rights.
B) slows the development of new technologies and products.
C) increases average labor productivity.
D) is detrimental to economic growth.
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Quiz 15
A political system that promotes the free and open exchange of ideas
A) will not have well-defined property rights.
B) slows the development of new technologies and products.
C) increases average labor productivity.
D) is detrimental to economic growth.
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Quiz 16
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Quiz 16
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Quiz 17
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Quiz 17
Answer: (A); If society saves today it can expand its capital stock and
increase living standards in the future. However, this expansion of
capital stock means giving up resources that could be used for current
consumption.
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