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Valuation Review

The document discusses various valuation methods and principles, emphasizing the importance of intrinsic value in assessing public shares and maximizing shareholder value. It covers different valuation approaches, including asset-based valuation, liquidation value, and the significance of understanding a company's financial performance and competitive position. Additionally, it highlights the role of analysts in forecasting and selecting appropriate valuation models while considering risks and market conditions.

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vijian.arcia
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Topics covered

  • Enterprise Risk Management,
  • Asset Valuation Methods,
  • Divestiture,
  • Porter's Five Forces,
  • Scarce Resources,
  • Risk Management,
  • Valuation,
  • Liquidation Based Valuation,
  • Brownfield Investments,
  • Fair Market Value
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
51 views6 pages

Valuation Review

The document discusses various valuation methods and principles, emphasizing the importance of intrinsic value in assessing public shares and maximizing shareholder value. It covers different valuation approaches, including asset-based valuation, liquidation value, and the significance of understanding a company's financial performance and competitive position. Additionally, it highlights the role of analysts in forecasting and selecting appropriate valuation models while considering risks and market conditions.

Uploaded by

vijian.arcia
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Topics covered

  • Enterprise Risk Management,
  • Asset Valuation Methods,
  • Divestiture,
  • Porter's Five Forces,
  • Scarce Resources,
  • Risk Management,
  • Valuation,
  • Liquidation Based Valuation,
  • Brownfield Investments,
  • Fair Market Value

Valuation | Reviewer • Intrinsic value is highly relevant in

valuing public shares


Value – worth of an object in another person’s
point of view Securities analysts – look for stocks which are
mispriced and base buy and sell recos on the
Maximize shareholder value – most fundamental
analysis
principle for all investments and business
Financial analysts – come up w/ accurate
(CFA Institute) Valuation – estimation of an
forecasts and determine the right valuation
asset’s value based on variables perceived to be
model that will yield good estimate of intrinsic
related to future investment returns.
val
Alfred Marshall popularized – company creates
Going concern value
value if and only if the return on capital invested
exceed the cost of acquiring capital • Entity will continue to do business into
foreseeable future
Three major factors linked to value of a
business: Liquidation value
C – current operations • Net amount that would be realized
business is terminated and assets are
F – future prospects
sold piecemeal
E – embedded risk • Entity will be dissolved and assets will
be sold individually
Intrinsic Value
• Always lower than actual value
• What would be valuable to u might not
Fair market value
be the same value as others
• Halaga ng isang bagay sayo • Exchange rate w/ tax
• Value of any asset based on the • Price, expressed in cash, at which
assumption that there is a hypothetical property will be exchanged
complete understanding if its investment • Willing buyer and seller’s agreed price
characteristics
• Value that an investor considers, on the Fundamental analysts
basis of available facts, to be “true” or • True value of a firm can be estimated by
“real” value that will become the market looking at its financial characteristics,
value when other investors reach the growth prospects, cash flows and risk
same conclusion profile
• Based on investor’s view of real worth • Lean towards long-term investment
of an asset strategies
• True value of asset is dictated by • Can either be value or growth investors
market, then intrinsic value equals its
market price Activist investors

Grossman-Stiglitz paradox: investors will not • Look for comp w/ good growth
rationally spend to gather more info about asset prospects that have poor management
unless they expect reward in exchange • Do takeovers – use equity holdings to
push olds management out of the comp
• Market price often does not approximate and change the way the comp is run
asset’s intrinsic value
Chartists
• Relies on concept that stock prices are • Ultimate goal = maximize firm value
significantly influenced by how while balancing profitability and risk
investors think and act appetite
• Rely on available KPIs
Valuation Process
Information Traders
1. Understanding the Business
• React based on new info about firms • Industry and competitive analysis
that are revealed to stock market • Industry structure: inherent technical
• More adept and economic characteristics of industry
and trends that affect its structure
Corporate Events 2. Forecasting Financial Performance
Acquisition • Looked at two lenses: macro perspective
(economic environment) and micro
• Two parties: buying and selling firm perspective (internal)
• Know FV before mag-bid 3. Selecting the right valuation model
• Landbank and UCPB • Depend on context of valuation and
company being valued
Merger
4. Preparing valuation model based on
• Two companies combine their assets to forecasts
create a new company/ separate legal • Encoding forecast
entity • Two aspects considered: Sensitivity
analysis and situational adjustments or
Divestiture
scenario modeling
• sale of a major component or segment of 5. Applying valuation conclusions and
business providing recommendation
• Hunts (URC) – bought by century (sa
century na ang hunts)
Porter’s five Forces
Spin-off
• Industry Rivalry
• Separate segment or component ng • Jollibee vs. McDo
business to form a separate legal entity
• New Entrants
Leveraged buy-out • Mang Inasal to Jollibee
• Substitutes and Complements
• Acquisition using collateral •
• Ang collateral ay utang din • Supplier Power
Unique factors considered by valuation in deals • telecompanies
analysis: • Buyer Power
• sardines
• Synergy – potential increase in firm
value once two firm merges Competitive position
• Control – change in management
• How company set themselves apart from
brought by acquisition
other competing market players
Corporate Finance
Michael Porter: generic corporate strategies to
• Managing firm’s capital structure achieve competitive advantage:
• Cost Leadership • Multiple analyses are done to
• Differentiation understand how changes in input or
• Focus variable will affect output
• Sales growth, gross margin, discount
Business model – method how company makes rates
money
• Situational adjustments or scenario
Analysts looks at historical FS to know how modeling
company performed
Key principles in valuation
Historical FS – last two years up to 10 years
• Value is defined at a specific point in
prior = shows how resilient company is
time
Analysis of historical FS = horizontal, vertical, • Value varies based on ability of business
ratio analysis to generate future cash flows
• Market dictates appropriate rate of
Typical sources of information = government-
return for investors
mandated disclosures like audited financial
• Value can be impacted by underlying net
statements
tangible assets
Other sources – news articles, reports from • Value is influenced by transferability of
industry organizations, reports from regulatory future net cash flows
agencies and industry researchers done by • Value is impacted by liquidity
independent firms (Nielsen or Euromonitor)
ASSET-BASED VALUATION
Analysis focus on quality of earnings = detailed
Asset – transactions that would yield future
review of FS and notes
economic benefits as a result of past transactions
AICPA guideline, red flags that indicate
Green field investments – started from scratch
aggressive accounting:
Brownfield investments – already in the going
• Poor quality of accounting disclosures
concern state
• Etc. etc. page 14
Going Concern Business Opportunities
Two approaches to forecasting
(GCBOs) – business that has long term to
• Top-down forecasting approach – infinite operational period
international to national
Committee of Sponsoring Organization of the
macroeconomics
Treadway Commission (COSO)
• labas to loob
• result = forecasted sales volume of • Risk management must be observed in
company doing business and determining value
• Bottom-up forecasting approach
Benefits of having a sound enterprise-wide risk
• From lower levels of firm and is
management
completed as it captures what will
happen to company based on inputs 1. Increase opportunities
• Bottom to top 2. Facilitate management and identification
of risk factors that affect business
Two aspects that should be considered by 3. Identify or create cost-efficient
analysts when preparing valuation model: opportunities
• Sensitivity analysis 4. Manage performance variability
5. Improve management and distribution of • Size of Assets
resources across enterprise - assets of similar size will be
6. Make business more resilient to abrupt compared
changes • Competitive Advantage
- Distinct characteristics = hard to
Importance of identifying risks = enable
replace
investors to quantify impact
Premium – most prudent approach; asset value >
Asset-based valuation advantage = enables
og value
analyst to validate firm value thru value of assets
Discount – asset value < og cost
Disadvantage = does not consider future value
RV per share = NBV +_ replacement adjustment
A-b val can be used if basis of value is
/ OS
established and complete
Reproduction Value Method (ReproVM)
Info required for a-b val:
- Basis when actual amount cannot be
• Total value of assets
determined
• Financing structure
• Classes of equity and other sources of Reproduction Value – estimate of cost of
funding reproducing, creating, developing or
manufacturing a similar asset
Popular methods used to determine value using
assets: - Requires reproduction cost analysis
- Useful when company is a start-up/
Book Value Method (BVM) new
• Value recorded in accounting records of Premium = mas mahal
company (audited FS: balance sheet)
Discount = mas mura
NBV of assets = TA-TL / NOS
Steps in determining equity value using reprovm
• Provides more transparent view on firm
value and is more verifiable 1. Conduct reproduction cost analysis on
• Only reflects historical value assets (initial)
• Not reflect real value 2. Adjust book value to repro costs value
• Does not account for full value of net 3. Apply replacement value formula
assets Repro Val = total assets - ____/ nos
Replacement Value Method (ReplaVM) Liquidation Value Method
• Value of individual assets shall be - Equity val approach
adjusted to reflect the relative value or - Considers salvage value of asset
cost equivalent to replace asset - Reasonable val for comp to be
purchased = amount which investors
Factors that can affect RV of asset
will realize in the end when it is
• Age of asset terminated
-enable valuator to determine cost
LIQUIDATION BASED VALUATION
related in order to upkeep similarly aged
asset When future cash flows will not be realizable
CFA Institute – liquidation value • Contract w/ govt expires
• Scarce resources are depleted and no
- Value of comp if it were dissolved
new site is prepared to support operation
and its assets are sold individually
- Represents net amount that can be General Principles on Liquidation Valuation
gathered if bus is shut down
- Business close = synergies lost • If liquidation value is above income
- Sell at discount to recover some approach valuation and liquidation
money comes into consideration, liquidation
- Base price or floor price value should be used
- Most conservative valuation • If nature of the business implies limited
approach lifetime, the terminal value must be
- Does not consider growth prospect based on liquidation
• Non-operating assets should be valued
Situations to Consider liquidation value by liquidation methos as the market
• Business failures – most common why value is reduced by costs of sale and
bus close or liquidate taxes
• Insolvency – company cannot pay • Liquidation valuation must be used if
liabilities as they come due the business continuity is dependent on
*bankruptcy is the most serious type of current management that will not stay
failure Going concern value > liquidation value
Business failures Liquidation value method – benchmark in
making investment decision
• Internal factors
- Mismanagement Profitable = liquidation < prevailing mp
- Poor financial evaluation and
decisions Types of Liquidation
- Failure to execute strategic plans • Orderly liquidation – assets are sold
- inadequate cash flow planning
strategically over an orderly period to
- failure to manage working capital
attract and generate most money for
• external factors assets; for sale on open market
- severe economic down-turn • Forced liquidation – assets are sold as
- dynamic consumer preferences
quickly as possible, such as at an
- material adverse governmental
auction; lower prices because of rush
action or regulation sale
- occurrence of natural disasters or
calamities Liquidation value considers present value of the
- occurrence of pandemic or general sums that can be obtained thru disposal of assets
health hazards of firm in the most appropriate way
Corporate or Project End of Life Liquidation per share = total liquidation/ OS

• Non-extension of corporate life Present value of sale of Asset

Depletion of Scarce Resources Less: PV of cost for termination and settlement


for liabilities
• Mining and oil
• Magsasara kasi ubos na Less; PV of tax charges for transactions and
pother liquidation costs
Liquidation Value

Common questions

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The Book Value Method estimates value based on the accounting records, reflecting historical costs without considering current market conditions, and thus often diverging from real asset value. The Replacement Value Method involves adjusting values to reflect the current cost equivalent to replace assets, considering factors like age, size, and competitive advantage. It aims to reflect more realistic asset valuation based on replacement costs. The Reproduction Value Method estimates the cost of reproducing a similar asset, useful for startups, focusing on the cost analysis for creating or duplicating existing assets. Unlike book value, both replacement and reproduction methods account for present market dynamics .

Sensitivity analysis enhances the robustness of financial forecasting in valuation models by assessing how different variables impact outcomes. By varying key assumptions like sales growth, gross margin, and discount rates, analysts can understand the range of potential results and identify which factors most significantly influence valuation. This process allows them to account for uncertainties and test the resilience of financial projections under different scenarios, providing a more comprehensive risk assessment and helping investors make informed decisions. It ensures valuations consider possible variations in economic conditions and company-specific risks .

Going concern value assumes that a business will continue to operate into the foreseeable future and reflects the company's ability to generate earnings over time. In contrast, liquidation value represents the net amount realized if a business is terminated and its assets are sold individually. Going concern value is applicable for companies with stable operations and growth prospects, while liquidation value is considered when a company faces bankruptcy or insolvency, making it the most conservative valuation approach. For instance, liquidation value is used if future cash flows are not realizable or if the business continuity relies on current management who will not remain .

The Grossman-Stiglitz paradox posits that if market prices perfectly reflected all available information, there would be no incentive for investors to spend resources gathering information, since they would not expect a reward for doing so. This challenges the notion that market prices always reflect intrinsic values, as it suggests that informational inefficiencies exist in the market. Intrinsic value often deviates from market price due to these inefficiencies, leading securities analysts to search for mispriced stocks based on in-depth analysis, reinforcing the importance of gathering and acting on information for achieving better investment outcomes .

An enterprise-wide risk management approach enhances a business's resilience and value by systematically identifying, assessing, and managing risks that could affect its operations. This comprehensive view allows a company to anticipate potential threats and capitalize on emerging opportunities, ultimately increasing strategic and operational flexibility. It facilitates the management of performance variability and optimizes resource distribution across the enterprise, making the business more adaptable to abrupt changes and external shocks. This approach ultimately helps in sustaining long-term value creation through better management practices and risk mitigation strategies .

The three major factors linked to the value of a business are current operations, future prospects, and embedded risk. These factors interact to influence the intrinsic value of a company, which is based on an investor’s perception of the company's real worth. Current operations determine the baseline value through existing revenue and profit streams. Future prospects provide insight into potential growth and expansion opportunities, affecting predictions for returns on investments. Embedded risks account for the uncertainties and potential negative impacts on business performance. The intrinsic value becomes relevant when analysts seek stocks that are mispriced in the market, leading to buy or sell recommendations based on analysis .

In mergers and acquisitions, synergy refers to the potential increase in value that results from combining two firms, where the combined entity is expected to be more valuable than the sum of the individual companies. Synergies can arise from cost reductions, increased revenues, or more efficient operations post-merger. Control, on the other hand, involves changes in management brought about by an acquisition, which may lead to better governance and strategic direction. Both factors significantly influence the decision and outcome of corporate deals, affecting the valuation and potential return on investment for shareholders .

A bottom-up forecasting approach starts at the lower levels of an organization, focusing on detailed inputs from specific operations to predict future performance. It captures internal insights on sales, costs, and production capabilities to build forecasts. In contrast, a top-down approach begins with macroeconomic trends and broader industry conditions, refining predictions to the company level. Bottom-up approaches allow for more granular, precise operational data influencing strategic plans focused on efficiency and resource allocation, while top-down helps set overarching business objectives based on economic conditions. Each influences strategy by tailoring forecasts to different business elements .

Fundamental analysts play a role by estimating a firm's intrinsic value through analysis of financial characteristics, growth prospects, and risk factors, often taking a long-term investment approach that can influence stock prices through buy-and-hold strategies. Activist investors seek companies with good growth potential but poor management, attempting takeovers to instigate change in management and improve governance, directly impacting corporate dynamics and strategic direction. Information traders respond quickly to new market information, affecting short-term price movements and liquidity. Each type of investor contributes to different aspects of market dynamics and corporate governance through their specific strategies .

Orderly liquidation involves strategically selling assets over time to maximize returns, typically occurring in a planned business closure scenario, allowing the company to receive higher prices. Forced liquidation occurs under duress, such as bankruptcy, requiring quick asset sales often at reduced prices. Distinguishing between the two is strategically important because it influences potential recovery values, impacts stakeholders differently, and affects the overall exit strategy from the business. Orderly liquidations can provide better returns and minimize losses, impacting decisions about winding down operations and broader financial planning .

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