MPA-03: Risk Assessment and Vulnerability
Analysis Assignment
Course Code: MPA-003
Assignment Code:
Asst/TMA/2023
SECTION –I
1) Define Vulnerability and discuss its various factors. 10
2) Define Risk and discuss various elements at Risk. 10
3) Discuss the role of Science and Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction. 10
4) Discuss analytical systems for risk assessment. 10
5) Examine participative risk assessment methods. 10
SECTION-II
6) ‘Poverty and Vulnerability are co-related.’ Discuss. 10
7) Bring to light socio-economic determinants of disaster loss. 10
8) ‘Urban planning comprises various issues.’ Comment 10
9) Describe cyclone preparedness with special reference to India. 10
10) Write a note on hazard design techniques. 10
2) Define Risk and discuss various elements at Risk.
Risk means an apprehension or a threat of something untoward happening. The concept
of “risk” usually refers to the probability of loss of a ‘valued resource’ (James Neill). Risk
may refer to a chance or a probability (“risk of exposure”), a consequence or impact (“the
risk from smoking”), or a perilous situation (“a hazardous waste plant creates a risk”.
Risk assessment is a systematic process that involves identifying, analyzing, and
evaluating potential risks and their various elements to determine the likelihood of an
event occurring and its potential impact. It is an essential step in disaster management
as it provides valuable insights for developing strategies to mitigate or prevent the
identified risks. Risk assessment encompasses a wide range of elements, including
environmental, social, economic, and infrastructural factors. Understanding these
elements is fundamental to developing comprehensive risk management plans that can
effectively minimize the impact of potential disasters. Additionally, risk assessment aids
in prioritizing resources and efforts towards the most critical areas of concern. By
thoroughly examining the various elements of risk, including their interconnectedness and
potential cascading effects, disaster management professionals can proactively prepare
and respond to potential threats more effectively.
Elements at risk are the property, resources, people and infrastructure likely to be affected
adversely during disasters, referring to all animate and inanimate objects likely to suffer
harm in the event of a disaster. Besides these tangible elements, intangible elements also
need to be accounted for, such as the mental health of sufferers, the impact on the
environment, cultural impact of migrations, etc. Though elements at risk to different types
of disasters are the same, certain specific elements may be at risk from certain types of
hazards may be identified. The tangible and intangible vulnerable elements in case of
different hazards are identified as Principal Vulnerable Elements by SEEDS INDIA. The
same are articulated thus:
The role of science and technology in disaster mitigation is currently being emphasized
in accordance with the all-Hazards Approach to disaster management. This approach
implies that a level of technical and administrative preparedness can develop expertise
to tackle all kinds of natural and man-made disasters, including terrorism.
Hence all knowledge should be assimilated in a ‘clearing house agency’ or networked
through a focal point and more funds committed to scientific research to ensure
comprehensive preparedness to handle any kind of emergency that might present itself.
3) Discuss the role of Science and Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction.
United Nation’s Disaster Management Training Programme (1994) states disaster
preparedness includes all measures that ensure the readiness/ ability of a society to:
• Forecast and take precautionary measures in advance of an imminent threat (in
case advance warnings are possible); and
• Respond to and cope with the effects of a disaster by organising and delivering
timely and effective rescue, relief and other Risk Reduction measures appropriate
post disaster assistance. The Red Cross has identified disaster preparedness as
an effective link between emergency response, rehabilitation and development
programmes (Jigyasu, 2002).
The all-Hazards Perspective is currently being emphasised in America to combat the
threat of terrorism stressing on interagency collaboration and data analyses of all
preceding natural and accidental mishaps. The Sub Committee on Disaster Reduction
(SDR) of the National Science and Technological Council (NSTC) in the United States
has articulated six important areas that require continued energy and appropriate
resources to meet the challenges of hazard risk reduction. The same may be pertinent
for all countries facing the threat of terrorism, which is the single most horrifying disaster
possibility in recent times.
1) Leveraging existing knowledge of natural and technological hazards to address
terrorism events
2) Improve hazard information data collection and prediction capability
3) Ensure the development and widespread use of improved hazard and risk assessment
models and their incorporation into decision support tools and systems.
4) Speed the transition from hazard research to hazard management application
5) Increase mitigation activities and incentives
6) Expand risk communication capabilities, especially public warning systems and
Techniques.
Kenneth Bloem of the John Hopkins University Center for Biodefense Studies has
identified a number of parallel streams where preparation for terrorist incidents can be
enhanced by decades of research in traditional disaster areas.
Here are some significant approaches to disaster management as suggested by Guzman:
✓ The comprehensive approach to disaster management
✓ The all-hazards approach
✓ The integrated approach
✓ The developmental relief approach
✓ vulnerability reduction approach
There is need for an integrating framework encompassing all the above–stated
approaches, in the form of a Total Disaster Risk Management or the TDRM approach
which is based on detailed risk analysis and ‘factors’ the same in public policy. Risk
Reduction provides an identified ‘objective’, which makes targeted risk
preparedness/planning for mitigation possible. Earlier this concrete end had been lacking.
Hence, all the above-mentioned significant approaches can now be geared towards, the
end objective of ‘Risk Reduction.’
6) ‘Poverty and Vulnerability are co-related.’ Discuss.
Vulnerability is a combination of personal or group features in relation to hazard exposure,
stemming from social and economic conditions. High vulnerability leads to serious
outcomes in hazard events, resulting from a complex combination of both the qualities of
the hazards involved and the characteristics of the affected individuals. Poverty is a
simple measure of lack or need, while vulnerability implies susceptibility to a specific
hazard.
Poverty and vulnerability are closely intertwined. Vulnerability is the result of various
factors and circumstances. For instance, the vulnerability of human settlements to natural
hazards largely depends on the ability of physical infrastructure to withstand the hazards
it is exposed to. Social factors can contribute to varying levels of vulnerability among
people living in the same city. People with different income levels are affected differently
by the same event. Vulnerability to disaster lessens as income rises.
Access to information affects vulnerability. Improvements in this area, especially a better
understanding of the existing risks and how to avoid or reduce them, can significantly
decrease an individual’s vulnerability to prevailing hazards.(Countering Disasters:
Targeting Vulnerability).
Disaster vulnerability is linked to the widening economic gap between the rich and poor
in many regions. Over 20 million people globally struggle to afford a nutritionally adequate
diet, with the highest proportions in Asia, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
It is estimated that 20 percent of the population controls 80 percent of the wealth, leading
to increasing national disparities and exacerbating vulnerability. (IFRCRCS, 1984).
Poverty is a significant factor in environmental degradation. It hampers the overall
development process. Lack of safe drinking water and appropriate shelter increases
vulnerability to natural disasters.
Poor people are vulnerable to starvation, malnutrition, unemployment, underemployment,
exploitation, torture, depression, alcoholism, diseases and atrocious crimes. Although
urban centers present real opportunities for poor people, they also create and feed the
conditions within which poverty spreads. All urban programmes must take account of
vulnerability in an urban context.
When combined with good governance, institutions such as property rights, well
established in wealthy countries encourage a process of capital development that enables
societies to reduce human vulnerability to natural disasters. Besides a ‘right’ ideological
stance in governance which is pro- poor and pro- development, provision of appropriate
infrastructure, including warning systems that can save lives, communications systems,
transportation infrastructure, medical facilities, and sophisticated construction methods
are the tangible benefits of economic development. (Okonkski,2004).
8) ‘Urban planning comprises various issues.
Here are some broad issues that comprise urban planning:
I) Global Warming
The impact of global warming on the international supply and demand of rice and wheat
study has projected that the serious impacts of global warming would be felt as early as
the year 2020 & the problem of short-term fluctuations in the market because of increased
frequency of droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events will be exacerbated.
II) Insurance
The property insurance industry is most likely to be directly affected by climate change
because it is already vulnerable to variability in extreme weather events (Dlugolecki, et
al., 1996). There is, however very limited penetration of property insurance or
agriculture crop insurance in many of the areas that are most affected by recent floods
and cyclonic storms. “Climate change can be considered a threat as well as an
opportunity for the insurance industry because an increase in risks and perceived risks
implies more business opportunities for the sector.”
III) Migration
In Asia, economic and population growth is expected to expand rapidly during the 21st
century in many countries. The rapid increase in population will be accompanied by
migration from rural communities to overcrowded large cities (Stephens, 1995) The huge
energy consumption by the expanding population in urban cities would result in
degradation of air and water quality, whereas rapid expansion of the economy will bring
about improvements in living standards, such as improved environmental sanitation,
hygienic practice, and medical treatment facilities
V) Infrastructure
Taking into account the historical perspective to vulnerability, site selection by colonists
was done primarily on economic considerations. Hence colonial settlements were
predisposed to damage by disasters such as storms, or earthquakes, or volcanic
eruptions. As far as the issue of infrastructure is concerned, a comprehensive
understanding of vulnerability in the current and historical perspectives would be needed
to tackle it effectively.
V) Administrative Matters
Significant issues are involved in Town Planning, City Administration, Administration of
Justice, Law and Order, Public Health and Hygiene and better laws to regulate
administration in the new and rising context of disaster management as integral to in
development planning.
Disaster preparedness has to be mainstreamed in developmental planning with particular
emphasis on construction of shelters at regular intervals, earthquake proofing and
retrofitting of buildings and upgrading public health infrastructure to reduce response time
in the event of disasters, and also in terms of general preparedness through R&D of new
threats to human life due to Climate Change.
10) Write a note on hazard design techniques.
Safe construction in urban areas begins with the careful selection of a secure site, offering
significant protection. For some hazards, like flood or land instability, site selection is the
most important protection measure. Site selection is important for some hazards, but
engineering and construction also play a crucial role in mitigating risks from earthquakes
and cyclones. The location can still impact the intensity of the hazard experienced and
potential damage caused.
The degree of "choice" in siting structures varies widely. Some may have limited or no
choice, while others may have a wide range of options for selecting a site. Site selection
can be evaluated on various scales, including the community scale, where building
improvement programs or relocating communities within a geographic area may be
considered, and at an individual scale when choosing a building site within a specific
locality.
When choosing a new location for settlement, the consideration of hazards is just one of
several factors taken into account for success. Consider hazards during site selection to
balance risks and benefits.
When choosing a large site, it's important to consider the varying levels of safety in
different areas of the land. Perspective and knowledge of disaster management is
essential for engineers, architects, and technical personnel. Training craftsmen and
property developers in disaster-resistant construction techniques is essential to ensure
settlements that meet prescribed norms and regulations.
Many public buildings are vulnerable to disasters and should be a priority consideration
in mitigation plans. Structural and material standards must be followed to protect
structures and installations from various levels of disaster impact.
In addition to following building codes, the initial design should consider aspects like the
building's location, zoning and code requirements, functional connections between
different parts of the structure, its shape and composition, structural system, potential
impact of disasters on occupants, intended beneficiaries or users, and their residential or
non-residential occupancy to predict economic losses or potential loss of life.
There is a need for manpower planning to ensure an adequate number of engineers
specializing in earthquake management. The unplanned growth of infrastructure has led
to a lack of preparedness in expertise and sufficient manpower for earthquake disaster
mitigation. Incorporating hazard considerations into the site selection process is crucial
for mitigating risks and ensuring the success and safety of new settlements. The
implementation of hazard-resilient design techniques in construction is imperative for
minimizing the impact of disasters on urban areas.
