BOWEN UNIVERSITY IWO
COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE ENGINEERING AND SCIENCE (COAES)
PURE AND APPLIED BIOLOGY PROGRAMME
BIO 201: GENETICS 1
MODULE 2
PROBABILITY IN GENETICS
Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with the likelihood of events occurring. It
quantifies uncertainty and helps predict how likely certain outcomes are based on known
information. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1, where:
• 0 means the event will not happen.
• 1 means the event will definitely happen.
• Any value between 0 and 1 represents the likelihood of the event occurring, with higher
values indicating greater likelihood.
The formula to calculate probability is:
P(A)=Number of favorable outcomes or Total number of possible outcomes
P(A) = {Number of favorable outcomes}/{Total number of possible outcomes}
P(A)=Total number of possible outcomes/Number of favorable outcomes
PRINCIPLES OF PROBABILITY
1. PRODUCT RULE
This rule states that the probability of two independent events occurring together can be calculated
by multiplying the individual probabilities of each event.
Formular
P (A n B) = P(A) X P(B)
2. SUM RULE
This rule states that the probability of at least one of two independent events occurring is the sum
of their individual probabilities
Formular
P (AUB) = P (A) + P (B)
In order to apply the product and sum rules one needs to be working with a large sample size in
order to avoid deviation in results due to variance. This general principle becomes even more
important when we consider inheritance patterns that go beyond the scope of mendelian genetics.
There are several factors that determine how inheritance works especially when a single phenotype
depends on multiple genes still probability can be applied in those cases some of which include
predictions of diseases inheritance or plant traits that are important for agriculture. These
calculations however are usually based on a combination of theoretical postulates like Mendel’s
law and large-scale studies that have accumulated enough data to give relatively accurate
prediction.
Application of Probability in Genetics
In genetics, probability plays a crucial role in predicting the likelihood of inheriting traits. Some
key applications include:
1. Punnett Squares: A diagram used to predict the probability of offspring inheriting certain
genotypes and phenotypes. By crossing the alleles of parents, it shows the probability of
dominant or recessive traits appearing in the offspring.
2. Mendelian Genetics: Gregor Mendel's principles are based on probability. For example,
in a simple monohybrid cross:
o If both parents are heterozygous (Aa), there is a 25% chance of homozygous
dominant (AA), 50% chance of heterozygous (Aa), and 25% chance of
homozygous recessive (aa) offspring.
3. Genetic Disorders: Probability is used to estimate the likelihood of inheriting genetic
disorders, especially in cases of autosomal recessive or autosomal dominant traits, and
X-linked disorders.
4. Hardy-Weinberg Principle: This principle uses probability to predict the genetic variation
in a population under ideal conditions. It helps in understanding allele frequencies and the
probability of certain traits being expressed over generations.
Probability allows geneticists to predict patterns of inheritance and the chances of certain traits
or diseases appearing in offspring. It is particularly useful in genetic counseling and
understanding hereditary risks.
