See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: [Link]

net/publication/276354052

History of Futures Studies Summary

Conference Paper · September 2014

CITATION READS
1 2,868

1 author:

Tina Jagerson
Federal Government
3 PUBLICATIONS 1 CITATION

SEE PROFILE

All content following this page was uploaded by Tina Jagerson on 16 May 2015.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

 History of Futures Studies Summary
Fall 2014 MOOC: The Emerging Future: Technology Issues and Trends
Tina D. Jagerson: tinadjagerson@[Link]

 
Studying the future goes by many names. Some call it prospective, futuribles, or
prognostics, while one of the more popular terms is prospective studies. Futurology and futuring
are not used quite as much these days, but foresight or strategic foresight seem to be gaining
recognition. Not only does futures studies go by many different names, the industry has as many
definitions of what it represents. However, the idea of gaining choices of a personal, possible,
probable and/or preferable future seems to carry over from one description to another.

A person who formally studies the future is commonly called a futurist. In general,
futurists investigate, analyze and discover future possibilities, then provide their insights to
others who are free to use this information to choose a desired future outcome to work toward.
Foresight, then, involves the assessment of many different areas or subjects and what changes
occur within them so that the futurist is able to discover what may lie ahead as a result.
Accordingly, futurists offer a number of alternatives from which to choose, any of which could
become the actual future reality, ensuring that you are prepared for most reasonable possibilities.

The definition of technological forecasting also varies from source to source, as well as
over time, but all the descriptions do have similarities. In 1962, an Air Force representative
defined technological forecasting as “the prediction of the invention, characteristics, dimensions,
or performance of a machine serving some useful purpose in society.” Thirty plus years later, the
definition morphed into the “prediction of the future characteristics of useful machines,
procedures, or techniques.”

By 2001, the technological forecasting definition expanded to “apply to all purposeful

and systematic attempts to anticipate and understand the potential direction, rate, characteristics,
and effects of technological change, especially invention, innovation, adoption, and use.” And
further, technological forecasting became “the prediction of the invention, timing, characteristics,
dimensions, performance, or rate of diffusion of a machine, material, technique, or process
serving some useful purpose.”

Technological forecasting has been around for over 100 years. One of the first formal
studies came in 1935, when a government Subcommittee on Technology studied and reported on
major inventions and their future social effects on America over a 10-25 year period. Yet it
wasn’t until after World War II that technological forecasting began to proliferate when military
policy incorporated technological foresight into its strategies, beginning with the RAND
Corporation in association with the Air Force. Several scientists and researchers from RAND,
including Olaf Helmer and Herman Kahn, were instrumental in furthering foresight and
developing futurism methodologies, such as the Delphi Technique and scenario planning.

This period of technological forecasting growth by the military from the 1940’s through
the 1970’s also saw an increased interest by the private sector, but for much of the 1970’s and
1980’s, there was very little progress in the futurism movement or its methodologies as its
popularity began to fade along with the Cold War. The last couple of decades, though, have seen

History of Futures Studies Summary by Tina D. Jagerson is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-
NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
 History of Futures Studies Summary
Fall 2014 MOOC: The Emerging Future: Technology Issues and Trends
Tina D. Jagerson: tinadjagerson@[Link]

 
enormous and rapid advancements in technology. Technological inventions have sparked a new
interest in forecasting the future. As a result, futurism has evolved along with a more globalized
and technical world perspective.

In order to obtain and review the relevant information and data for a technological
forecast, it is important to have a process from which to guide your actions and identify the best
methods for any given situation. The objective in applying a futures methodology procedure is to
logically discover and analyze as many potential futures imagined in order to gain the advantage
of quicker responses to upcoming change. In this way, anticipation of the future through a
calculated process opens the door to the future allowing the organization or individual more time
to learn about changes and react in the desired manner.

There are many forecasting methods available and their applications may overlap into
more than one methodological step within any process. Likewise, futurists regularly use
combinations of methods, since each method has unique forecasting capabilities and their own
strengths and weaknesses. As such, any given resulting forecast is subject to the chosen method,
the limitations and beneficial qualities of that method and the particular expertise of the futurist
who applies it.

So far, there does not seem to be a consensus on a particular course to develop a forecast,
but most have analogous components following a similar path. Each process outlines various
steps to take when executing a new futurism project and each step has within it numerous
forecasting methods that allow for successful completion of the foresight study. Accordingly,
any futurism procedure fundamentally involves what some describe as: framing; scanning;
describing; visioning; planning; and acting. A comparable approach consists of six steps and
attaches specific tools to each: mapping; anticipation; timing; deepening; creating alternatives;
and transforming.

Within these sample frameworks, many different futurism methods are applied,
including, but not limited to historical and trend analysis, systems thinking, futures triangle,
environmental scanning, roadmapping, creating alternative scenarios, gaming and simulation,
Delphi expert technique, backcasting, visualization, brainstorming, SWOT analyses, strategic
planning, and technology assessments.

For a more in-depth list of futures research methods with detailed explanations visit the
For-Learn website at [Link] will
help give additional clarification. The World Future Society (WFS) also includes an interactive
dictionary of methods: [Link] and the Institute for the Future (IFTF)
website contains several current Foresite Tools and descriptions: [Link]
do/foresight-tools/.

History of Futures Studies Summary by Tina D. Jagerson is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-
NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
 History of Futures Studies Summary
Fall 2014 MOOC: The Emerging Future: Technology Issues and Trends
Tina D. Jagerson: tinadjagerson@[Link]

 
REFERENCES
Association of Professional Futurists (APF). (n.d.) What is a Futurist? Retrieved from
[Link]

Bishop, P.C. and Hines, A. (June 2012). Teaching About the Future. Retrieved from
[Link] doi:
10.1057/9781137020703

Coates, V., Farooque, M., Klavans, R., Lapid, K., Linstone, H.A. Pistorius, C., & Porter, A.L.
(2001). On the Future of Technological Forecasting. Technological Forecasting and
Social Change. 67 (1), 1-17. Retrieved from
[Link]

Firat, A.K., Woon, W.L., & Madnick, S. (Sept. 2008). Technological Forecasting – A
Review, Working Paper. Composite Information Systems Laboratory, Sloan School of
Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Retrieved from
[Link]

For-Learn. (n.d.). Description of Main Methods. Retrieved from

[Link]

Frey, T. Ed. (Oct. 2013). The Future Favors the Bold – 8 Backcasting Scenarios for
Understanding the Future [blog post]. The Futurist. Retrieved from
[Link]
scenarios-for-understanding-future

Giaoutzi, M. and Sapio, B. (2013). In Search of Foresight Methodologies: Riddle or Necessity.

In Giaoutzi, M, & Sapio B. (eds.). Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies,
Complex Networks and Dynamic Systems 1. (pp. 3-9). Retrieved from
[Link]
7%2F1%[Link]. doi: 10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_1

Inayatullah, S. (2008). Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming. foresight, 10 (1), 4-21.
Retrieved from [Link] doi:
10.1108/14636680810855991

———. (Dec. 2012). Teaching Futures Studies: From Strategy to Transformative Change [blog
post]. Retrieved from [Link]

———. (2013). Futures Studies: theories and methods. In Junquera, F.G. Ed., There’s a future:

History of Futures Studies Summary by Tina D. Jagerson is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-
NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
 History of Futures Studies Summary
Fall 2014 MOOC: The Emerging Future: Technology Issues and Trends
Tina D. Jagerson: tinadjagerson@[Link]

 
Visions for a better world. 36-66. Retrieved from [Link]
[Link]/uploads/7/7/3/2/7732993/futures_studies_theories_and_methods_published_ve
rsion_2013_with_pics.pdf

———. (n.d.). Research on Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). Retrieved from

[Link]

Institute for the Future. (2013). What We Do: History of the Future. Retrieved from
[Link]

Lenz Jr., R.C. (June 1962). Technological Forecasting (Report No. ASD TDR 62-414). Virginia:
Department of Defense, Aeronautics Systems Division. Retrieved from Defense
Technical Information Center [Link]

Martino, J.P. (1993). Technology Forecasting for Decision Making 3rd ed. Retrieved from
[Link]
Prospective_000737.pdf?sequence=1

Mills, A. and Bishop, P. (2000). Applied Futurism: An Introduction for Actuaries. The Society of
Actuaries. Retrieved from [Link]

National Resources Committee. (1937). Technological Trends and National Policy, Including
the Social Implications of New Inventions. Retrieved from
[Link]

National Research Council. (2009). Chapter 2: Existing Technology Forecasting Methodologies.

In Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies (pp. 17-32). Washington D.C.: The
National Academies Press. Retrieved from
[Link]

RAND Corporation. (n.d.). Delphi Method. Retrieved from

[Link]

Smart, J.M. (2006). Futurist (Definition) and Twelve Common Types of Foresight Thinking.
Acceleration Watch. Retrieved from [Link]

University of Houston, College of Technology Foresight. (n.d.). Foresight: Envisioning a world

with multiple futures. Retrieved from [Link]

———. (n.d.). Futurists: Exploring the future to anticipate and prepare for change. Retrieved
from [Link]

History of Futures Studies Summary by Tina D. Jagerson is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-
NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
 History of Futures Studies Summary
Fall 2014 MOOC: The Emerging Future: Technology Issues and Trends
Tina D. Jagerson: tinadjagerson@[Link]

 
———. (n.d.). History: The oldest foresight program in the world. Retrieved from
[Link]

van Rij, V. (2013). New Emerging Issues and Wild Cards as Future Shakers and Shapers. In
Giaoutzi, M, & Sapio B. (eds.). Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies,
Complex Networks and Dynamic Systems 1. (pp. 67-89). Retrieved from
[Link]
7%2F1%[Link]. doi: 10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_5

History of Futures Studies Summary by Tina D. Jagerson is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-
NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

View publication stats