Spatial Pattern Analysis
with ArcGIS
Lauren Rosenshein
Presentation Outline
• Spatial Statistics Overview
• Spatial Pattern Analysis
- Descriptive spatial statistics
- Global and local spatial autocorrelation statistics
- What is a z score? What is a p-value?
- Spatial weights
• Additional Resources
DEMOS
• The spatial pattern of piracy
• Exploring Childhood Obesity using Hot Spot Analysis
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What are spatial statistics in a GIS environment?
• Software-based tools, methods, and techniques developed
specifically for use with geographic data.
• Spatial statistics:
– Describe and model spatial distributions, spatial
patterns, spatial processes, and spatial relationships.
– Incorporate space (area, length, proximity, orientation,
and/or spatial relationships) directly into their
mathematics.
In many ways spatial statistics extend what the eyes
and mind do intuitively to assess spatial patterns,
trends and relationships.
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Why use spatial statistics?
• Spatial Statistics help us assess:
•Patterns
•Relationships
•Trends
How we present our results (colors,
class breaks, symbols…) can either
enhance or obscure communication.
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Spatial Statistics Toolbox in ArcGIS
• Core functionality with
ArcGIS (not an extension).
• Most tools delivered with
their source code.
• Most tools available at all
license levels.
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Mean Center Animation
• Questions
– Which site is most accessible?
– Is there a directional trend to the
spatial distribution of incidents?
– What is the primary direction for
auto theft and recovery?
– Where is the crime center?
– Which gang has the broadest
territory?
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Directional Distribution
• Abstracting spatial trends in a distribution of features
• Comparing distributions over time
•1 = 68% of features
•2 = 95% of features
•3 = 99% of features
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The Spatial Pattern of Piracy
Demo
What is a z-score? What is a p-value?
z-scores: -2.58 -1.96 -1.65 …(0.0)… 1.65 1.96 2.58
p-values: 0.01 0.05 0.10 …(1.0)… 0.10 0.05 0.01
• The null hypothesis for the
ArcGIS Spatial Pattern
Analysis tools is CSR:
Complete Spatial Randomness
• Reject the null hypothesis if
the result (the p-value/z score)
is statistically significant
Z Score P-Value Confidence
(Standard (Probability) Level
Deviations)
+/-1.65 0.10 90%
+/-1.96 0.05 95%
+/-2.58 0.01 99%
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Measuring Geographic Analyzing Mapping Modeling Spatial
Distribution Patterns Clusters Relationships
1969 1985 2002
• Which plant species is most • Is there an unexpected spike in
concentrated? pharmaceutical purchases?
• Does the spatial pattern of the • Are new AIDs cases remaining
disease mirror the spatial Geographically fixed?
pattern of the population at risk?
Measuring Geographic Analyzing Mapping Modeling Spatial
Distribution Patterns Clusters Relationships
1969 1985 2002
5.21 4.26 2.4
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1969 1979 1989 1999
Measuring Geographic Analyzing Mapping Modeling Spatial
Distribution Patterns Clusters Relationships
High Poverty
High Poverty
Surrounded by
Low poverty
Low Poverty Low poverty
Surrounded
by High
Poverty
• Where are their sharp boundaries between • Where are the 911 Call Hot Spots?
affluence and poverty in Ecuador? • Where do we see unexpectedly
• Where do we find anomalous spending high rates of diabetes?
patterns in Los Angeles?
Exploring Childhood Obesity
Hot Spot Analysis Demo
Is CSR useful?
• Raising the bar:
- Normalize the analysis field to create a rate
- Analyze average values
- Compare z score magnitudes
- Across space
- Over time
- Among control spatial distributions
1969 1979 1989 1999
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Measuring Geographic Analyzing Mapping Modeling Spatial
Distribution Patterns Clusters Relationships
• Can I model spatial relationships
based on a real road network?
• Are spatial weights matrix files
editable, sharable, re-usable?
• Can I create a custom spatial Construct spatial weights matrix files
weights matrix file?
• What is the relationship between
educational attainment and
income?
• Is there a relationship between
income and public transportation
usage? Is that relationship
consistent across the study Ordinary Least Squares
area? Geographically Weighted Regression
Resources for learning more…
After the conference
[Link]
• Hot Spot and Regression Analysis Tutorials
• Short Videos
• Virtual campus free web seminars
• Articles (keyword search: “Spatial Statistics”)
• Online help
• The ESRI Guide to GIS Analysis, Volume 2
• Instructor-led ESRI training
LRosenshein@[Link]
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QUESTIONS?
LRosenshein@[Link]
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