Solar energy technologies,

markets and competitiveness

Eero Vartiainen
Fortum Growth Oy
8.11.2017
Transition towards Solar Economy
Solar Economy
Solar based production with
high overall system efficiency
High
Sun
Hydro
Ocean

Geothermal Wind
Resource & system efficiency

CHP
Advanced
energy production Bio
Energy efficient and/or
low-emission production

Nuclear
Traditional tomorrow
energy production
Exhaustible fuels that burden
the environment

CCS
Coal Gas
Low

Oil Nuclear
today
Finite fuel resources Large CO2 emissions Infinite fuel resources Emissions free production

Copyright © Fortum Corporation

2
Future energy system features
Summer Autumn Winter Spring

Wind dominated / most competitive - Clear Seasonality

Solar dominated / most competitive - Lower seasonality

3
Solar energy availability

Total amount of solar

energy incident on the
surface of the Earth is
800 million TWh per
year. That is about
5000 times the annual
global primary energy
demand. In other
words, the earth
receives in less than 2
hours the amount of
energy we consume
annually.

4 Source: Solargis
Solar energy availability in Europe
Yearly solar horizontal irradiation availability in Europe

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200
2
kWh/m

Diffuse
1000
Beam
800

600

400

200

0
e
ly

ris

on
nd

ä
ki

ä
n
ic
om

yl

yl
ge
ci

n
Pa

nd
la
N

sk
si

nk
Si

ha
ol
R

el
Lo

vä

da
H

H
en

Jy

So
op
C
Source: Beam direct sun and diffuse sky irradiation calculated from European Test Reference Years
5
Monthly solar electricity for Helsinki and Sicily

Monthly PV production (kWh/kWp)

200

180
Helsinki
160
Sicily
140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

6
How much electricity could be produced in theory ?

With PV modules of 16.5%

average efficiency, a module
area of 24 km x 24 km
would be needed to produce
the annual electricity
consumption in Finland.

To produce all world’s

electrity consumption, an
area equal to 40% of
Finland would be needed.

7
Assumptions: Annual electricity consumption Finland 85 TWh, the world 20 000 TWh;
Finland’s area 338 000 km2; annual PV yield 900 kWh/kWp;
 How much solar PV would fit in the Finnish market ?

• About 20% of the Finnish 3 kWh/kWp 2 kWh/kWp 1 kWh/kWp no storage

electricity consumption could
100
be produced with PV without

Useful PV production / electrcity

90
significant surplus 80
• With a small storage, the

consumption (%)
70

penetration of PV could be 60
50
increased to 40%
40
• Increasing PV penetration 30
much higher than 50 % 20
requires seasonal storage 10
0
• The economically optimal 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
storage size increases with the Annual PV production / electricity consumption (% )
lowering storage cost

Calculation is made with Helsinki weather data and hourly Finnish electricity consumption (annual sum 85 TWh).

8
Main solar energy technologies for power and heat production
Concentrating
Photovoltaics, PV/CPV Solar Thermal, ST
Solar Power, CSP

Power Power & heat Heat & cooling

Residential to utility scale Mainly utility scale Residential to comm. scale

9
 Characteristics of solar energy conversion technologies

Photovoltaics (PV) global installed capacity 400 GWp (end of 2017)

• Can utilise both direct beam sunlight and diffuse skylight
• Crystalline silicon cells (> 90% of the current PV market)
• Thin film cells (< 10% of the current PV market)
• Organic and dye-sensitised cells (laboratory to pilots)

Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) installed capacity ~5 GWp

• Partially conventional technology with steam turbines, requires high direct sunlight

Concentrating Photovoltaics (CPV) mainly pilot projects, installed capacity 0.4 GWp
• High efficiency systems with lenses, requires high direct sunlight

Solar thermal heating systems installed capacity > 300 GWth

• Collector systems that heat air or water
• China the biggest market by far

10
Solar PV cell technologies and typical module efficiencies
Monocrystalline silicon Multicrystalline silicon Thin film
18-24% 16-20% 8-18%

Polymer Dye-sensitised Concentrating PV

< 10% < 10% 30-40%

11
Solar PV cell efficiency development

12
Concentrating PV (CPV)
To increase the efficiency of PV, it is
possible to join together several thin
layers of semiconductors that each
capture a different wavelength of the
solar spectrum. Best 3-junction cells
(Ge/GaInAs/GaInP) exceed 40%
efficiency. New 4-junction cells are
expected to reach 50%.
These cells are expensive and to
reduce material cost, they are used
with concentrator systems (lenses and
mirrors). Concentration ratios can be
up to 1000X which means that only 10
cm2 of cell is needed for 1 m2 module.
Concentrating PV requires high direct
sunlight and a sun-tracking device.

13
Concentrating solar (thermal) power (CSP)
Another way of utilising direct
sunlight with tracking A CSP tower with a molten salt storage
systems is concentrating
solar thermal power (CSP).
Reflectors are used to
concentrate sunlight to a
receiver and heat a medium
(syntethic oil, water or molten
salt) which in turn will heat up
steam that is driven to turbine
to generate electricity. Typical
solar-to-electric efficiencies
range from 15% (throughs) to
25% (dishes). A benefit of
CSP is that heat can be
stored or backup fuels used
to generate electricity when
the sun is not shining.

14
CSP reflector systems
Parabolic through Linear Fresnel reflector
Parabolic throughs and linear
Fresnel reflectors (LFR) have a
line focus. Throughs have a
mobile receiver whereas LFR
receiver is fixed.

Solar tower with heliostats Parabolic dishes

Solar towers and parabolic
dishes have a point focus.
Tower receiver is fixed whereas
dishes are mobile and have an
independent engine/generator
(such as Stirling engine or
microturbine)

15
Solar thermal heating

Solar collectors can be used to

produce domestic hot water.
When the sun is shining, cold
water is heated in the
collectors and the heat is
transferred to the storage tank.

Space heating by solar heat is

limited because the heat load
is small during the summer.
However, it is possible to
utilise passive solar heating
and daylighting during winter.

16
 Annual solar market could grow to 100 GWp in 2017

• Global market in 2017 will

be close to 100 GWp

• China will install at least

50 GWp in 2017

• India could be the second

largest market in 2018

• European share of the

global market has
decreased from 75% in
2011 to 7% in 2017

Source: Global market outlook for solar power 2017-2021 (SolarPower Europe, 6/2017)
17
Global cumulative capacity will reach 1 TWp in 5 years
• Cumulative capacity close to
400 GWp in 2017 and could
reach 1000 GWp in 5 years

• European share of the

cumulative global capacity
will be less than 25% in
2018. China’s capacity has
exceeded European
capacity in 2017.

• Japan and USA have

surpassed Germany

• Germany, Greece and Italy

are already generating 7-9%
of their electricity
consumption with PV

Source: Global market outlook for solar power 2017-2021 (SolarPower Europe, 6/2017)
Annual market to grow to ~250 GWp by 2030 and ~500 GWp by 2050

900
Fast growth
800
Base case

Annual PV shipments (GWp)

700
Slow growth
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Source: European PV Technology and Innovation Platform (ETIP PV, 3/2017)

Base scenario: 15% CAGR 2015-2020, 10% CAGR 2020-2030, 2% CAGR after 2030
Slow scenario: 10% CAGR 2015-20, 5% CAGR 2020-30, 2% CAGR after 2030
Fast scenario: 20% CAGR 2015-2020,15% CAGR 2020-30; 2% CAGR after 2030
For 2030-2050, replacement installations according to 2000-2020 volumes are included

19
 Cumulative market volume in the Base case ~9 TWp by 2050

18000
Fast growth
16000

Cumulative PV shipments (GWp)

Base case
14000
Slow growth
12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: European PV Technology and Innovation Platform (ETIP PV, 3/2017)
Base scenario: 15% CAGR 2015-2020, 10% CAGR 2020-2030, 2% CAGR after 2030
Slow scenario: 10% CAGR 2015-20, 5% CAGR 2020-30, 2% CAGR after 2030
Fast scenario: 20% CAGR 2015-2020,15% CAGR 2020-30; 2% CAGR after 2030
For 2030-2050, replacement installations according to 2000-2020 volumes are included

20
 Share of PV generation of global electricity consumption will
increase from 2% in 2017 to >30% by 2050 in the base scenario
35%

30%

25%
Share of PV

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Assumptions: global electricity consumption 20 000 TWh in 2015, 40 000 TWh in 2050 (IEA);
21
global average solar PV yield 1250 kWh/kWp in 2015, 1500 kWh/kWp in 2050
 Solar PV (multicrystalline silicon) manufacturing process

PV (large) system
price breakdown

Silicon
Wafering
Cell making
Module assembly
Balance of System

Balance of system includes all other system

components except the module: inverters,
cables, mounting, installation work etc.

22
 Top10 PV silicon manufacturers 2017

23
Data source: PV magazine
 Top10 PV wafer manufacturers 2017

24
Data source: PV magazine
 Top10 PV cell manufacturers 2017

25
Data source: PV magazine
 Top10 PV module manufacturers 2017

26
Data source: PV magazine
 Top5 PV thin film manufacturers 2016

27
Data source: PV magazine
 PV module real prices have decreased to 1/13 from 2009 to 2017

Source: Photon International magazine

28
 Polysilicon spot price has now stabilised around 15 USD/kg

600

Virgin polysilicon price ($/kg)

500

400

300

Real 2017 prices

200
Nominal prices

100

Sources: Photon International, PV magazine, PVinsights

29
 Historical learning rate for PV modules is 20-25%

Every time the global cumulative PV capacity has doubled, module

price has reduced by 20-25% - but for the last 8 years by 40%

Source: International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV, 8th edition, March 2017)
30
 How low can the prices go – according to 25% learning curve

0,5
2016 average spot price, PVinsights Slow growth

0,4
Average module price (€/Wp)

Base
1Q17 average spot price, PVinsights
Fast growth
0,3

0,2

0,1

0,0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

31
Source: European PV Technology and Innovation Platform; applying the three volume growth scenarios
PVinsights spot price converted to euros with currency rate 1 € = 1.07 $
 Average PV turnkey system CAPEX price will reduce
by 40-50% by 2030 and by 60-70% by 2050

Residential 5 kWp
1,4
Commercial 50 kWp
1,2
PV system price (€/Wp)

Industrial 1 MWp
1,0
Utility-scale 50 MWp
0,8

0,6

0,4

0,2

0,0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

CAPEX according to the base learning curve (ETIP PV, 3/2017)

= Utility-scale CAPEX in EU with 1Q/17 spot module price
32 = Utility-scale CAPEX in India with 1Q/17 spot module price and CERC India BoS price
(CERC = Indian Central Electricity Regulatory Commission report, 1/2016)
 Main driver behind future PV cost reduction is efficiency:
Average PV module efficiency will almost double by 2050

30%
Average module efficiency ITRPV

Average module efficiency

28%
Average module efficiency ETIP PV
26%

24%
Best commercial module 2016
22%

20%

18%

16%
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2041 2044 2046 2048 2050

Note: ITRPV average is only for c-Si modules

Historically, average module efficiency has improved by 0.4%-points per year (ETIP PV)
= Best commercial PV module efficiency in 2016 (SunPower)

Sources: PV LCOE in Europe 2014-30 (EU PV Technology Platform, June 2015);

33 Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report (2016);
International Technology Roadmap for PV (ITRPV, March 2017); weighted average of different module types
 Higher efficiency and bigger volumes will also drive down OPEX

20
Rooftop
Utility-scale
PV system OPEX (€/kWp/a) 15

10

0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

OPEX according to the base learning curve (ETIP PV, 3/2017)

34
 PV Competitiveness: Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE)

PV LCOE is defined as the average generation cost, i.e., including all

costs involved in supplying PV at the point of connection to the grid:

𝐶𝐴𝑃𝐸𝑋 + 𝑛𝑡=1[𝑂𝑃𝐸𝑋(𝑡)/(1 + 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶𝑁𝑜𝑚 )𝑡 ]

PV LCOE = 𝑛 𝑡 𝑡
𝑡=1[𝑈𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑠𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛0 ∙ 1 − 𝐷𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 / (1 + 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶𝑅𝑒𝑎𝑙 ) ]

where WACCReal = (1 + WACCNom) / (1 + Inflation) - 1

Net present value (NPV) for the investment with nominal WACC is
zero when valuing the generated electricity for the real LCOE.

E.g., 2% real WACC equals 4% nominal WACC with 2% annual inflation

35
Example of PV electricity value for a residential prosumer in Finland

Average value of PV electricity

120
Value of electricity (€/MWh)

100
80
60
40
20
0
100% 75% 50% 25% 0%
Self-consumption ratio of PV production

Source: Eurostat 2015 average prices for annual 5-15 MWh consumption
36 Note: Value of surplus electricity fed into the grid is average spot market price in 2015 – 10%
Residential electricity retail prices in Europe (excluding fixed fees)

Retail electricity price (€/MWh) Taxes and fees

250
Grid cost
200
Energy
150

100

50

0
SWE FIN NED FRA BEL TUR UK GER SPA ITA

Source: Eurostat 2015 average prices for annual 5-15 MWh consumption
37 Note: Self-consumption tax deducted from Eurostat energy price in Spain
Commercial electricity retail prices in Europe (excluding fixed fees)

180
Retail electricity price (€/MWh) Taxes and fees
160
Grid cost
140
Energy
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
SWE FIN NED FRA BEL TUR UK GER SPA ITA

Source: Eurostat 2014 average prices for annual 20-500 MWh consumption
38 Notes: Self-consumption tax deducted from Eurostat energy price in Spain and Italy;
40% of EEG fee deducted from taxes and fees in Germany
Industrial electricity retail prices in Europe (excluding fixed fees)

160
Retail electricity price (€/MWh) Taxes and fees
140
Grid cost
120
Energy
100
80
60
40
20
0
SWE FIN NED FRA BEL TUR UK GER SPA ITA

Source: Eurostat 2014 average prices for annual 2 000-20 000 MWh consumption
39 Notes: Self-consumption tax deducted from Eurostat energy price in Spain and Italy; 40% of EEG fee
deducted in Germany and electricity tax in Finland from taxes and fees
 Average spot market electricity price in Europe 2016

50

Spot market price (€/MWh)

40

30

20

10

0
SWE FIN NED FRA BEL TUR UK GER SPA ITA

Note: Value of surplus PV electricity fed in to the grid is assumed to be average spot market price – 10%;
40 Surplus PV value for residential and commercial prosumers in Spain is 0
 Residential PV LCOE vs electricity value in Finland

160
Additional PV LCOE with
PV LCOE & electricity value (€/MWh) 6% nominal WACC
140
Additional PV LCOE with
120 4% nominal WACC

100 Additional PV LCOE with

2% nominal WACC
80
PV LCOE with 0% nominal
WACC
60
Electricity value with 75%
40 self-consumption

20 Electricity value with 50%

self-consumption
0
Electricity value with 25%

2038
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036

2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
self-consumption

Source for retail prices: Eurostat 2015 averages for 5-15 MWh annual consumption, fixed components excluded;
41 All prices in 2016 real money
 Residential PV LCOE vs retail electricity price in the UK

180

PV LCOE & electricity value (€/MWh)

Additional PV LCOE with
160 6% nominal WACC

140 Additional PV LCOE with

4% nominal WACC
120
Additional PV LCOE with
100 2% nominal WACC

80 PV LCOE with 0% nominal

WACC
60
Electricity value with 75%
40 self-consumption

20 Electricity value with 50%

self-consumption
0
Electricity value with 25%
2026
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024

2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
self-consumption

Source for retail prices: Eurostat 2015 averages for 5-15 MWh annual consumption, fixed components excluded;
42 All prices in 2016 real money
 Residential PV LCOE vs electricity value in Italy

220

PV LCOE & electricity value (€/MWh)

Additional PV LCOE with
200 6% nominal WACC
180
Additional PV LCOE with
160 4% nominal WACC

140 Additional PV LCOE with

120 2% nominal WACC

100 PV LCOE with 0% nominal

WACC
80
60 Electricity value with 75%
self-consumption
40
Electricity value with 50%
20 self-consumption
0
Electricity value with 25%

2048
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046

2050
self-consumption

Source for retail prices: Eurostat 2015 averages for 5-15 MWh annual consumption, fixed components excluded;
43 All prices in 2016 real money
 Commercial PV LCOE vs electricity value in Finland

160
Additional PV LCOE with
PV LCOE & electricity value (€/MWh) 10% nominal WACC
140
Additional PV LCOE with 7%
120 nominal WACC

100 Additional PV LCOE with 4%

nominal WACC
80
PV LCOE with 2% nominal
WACC
60
Electricity value with 100%
40 self-consumption

20 Electricity value with 75%

self-consumption
0
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Electricity value with 50%
self-consumption

Source for retail prices: Eurostat 2014 averages for 20-250 MWh annual consumption, fixed components excluded;
44 All prices in 2016 real money
 Industrial PV LCOE vs electricity value in Finland

120
PV LCOE & electricity value (€/MWh) Additional PV LCOE with
10% nominal WACC
100
Additional PV LCOE with 7%
nominal WACC
80
Additional PV LCOE with 4%
nominal WACC
60
PV LCOE with 2% nominal
WACC
40
Electricity value with 100%
self-consumption
20
Electricity value with 75%
self-consumption
0
Electricity value with 50%

2046
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044

2048
2050
self-consumption

Source for retail prices: Eurostat 2014 averages for 2-20 GWh annual consumption, fixed components excluded;
45 All prices in 2016 real money
 Summary of when true PV competitiveness is reached
with retail electricity price in Europe
50% self-consumption 75% self-consumption 100% self-consumption
Nominal Nominal Nominal
Residential WACC Commercial WACC Industrial WACC
5 kWp 0% 2% 4% 6% 50 kWp 2% 4% 7% 10 % 1 MWp 2% 4% 7% 10 %
Stockholm 2018 2022 2027 2034 Stockholm Parity 2018 2024 2030 Stockholm 2020 2023 2029 2036
Helsinki 2017 2022 2027 2033 Helsinki Parity 2018 2023 2029 Helsinki 2017 2020 2025 2030
Amsterdam Parity Parity 2018 2023 Amsterdam Parity Parity 2020 2025 Amsterdam Parity Parity 2017 2021
Paris Parity Parity 2019 2024 Paris Parity Parity 2018 2023 Paris Parity Parity 2017 2021
Brussels Parity Parity 2017 2021 Brussels Parity Parity 2017 2021 Brussels Parity Parity Parity 2019
Istanbul Parity Parity 2017 2020 Istanbul Parity Parity 2017 2022 Istanbul Parity Parity Parity 2018
London Parity Parity Parity 2017 London Parity Parity Parity 2018 London Parity Parity Parity Parity
Berlin Parity Parity Parity Parity Berlin Parity Parity Parity 2018 Berlin Parity Parity Parity 2017
Madrid Parity Parity 2017 2021 Madrid Parity Parity Parity Parity Madrid Parity Parity Parity Parity
Rome Parity Parity Parity Parity Rome Parity Parity Parity Parity Rome Parity Parity Parity Parity
Sofia Parity 2019 2023 2028 Sofia Parity Parity 2017 2022 Sofia Parity Parity Parity 2020
Prague 2018 2023 2028 2035 Prague Parity Parity 2019 2023 Prague Parity Parity 2019 2024
Copenhagen Parity Parity Parity 2019 Copenhagen Parity 2017 2022 2028 Copenhagen Parity Parity Parity 2019
Tallinn 2018 2022 2027 2034 Tallinn Parity 2018 2024 2029 Tallinn Parity Parity 2018 2023
Dublin Parity Parity 2018 2022 Dublin Parity Parity Parity 2020 Dublin Parity Parity Parity 2017
Athens Parity Parity Parity Parity Athens Parity Parity Parity Parity Athens Parity Parity Parity Parity
Zagreb Parity 2017 2022 2027 Zagreb Parity Parity 2018 2022 Zagreb Parity Parity Parity 2020
Nicosia Parity Parity Parity Parity Nicosia Parity Parity Parity Parity Nicosia Parity Parity Parity Parity
Riga Parity 2017 2021 2026 Riga Parity Parity 2018 2023 Riga Parity Parity Parity 2018
Vilnius 2017 2022 2027 2033 Vilnius Parity Parity 2019 2024 Vilnius Parity Parity Parity 2017
Luxembourg Parity Parity 2020 2024 Luxembourg Parity Parity 2019 2024 Luxembourg Parity Parity 2021 2025
Budapest Parity 2020 2025 2030 Budapest Parity Parity 2018 2023 Budapest Parity Parity Parity 2017
Valletta Parity Parity Parity Parity Valletta Parity Parity Parity Parity Valletta Parity Parity Parity Parity
Wien Parity Parity 2017 2020 Wien Parity Parity Parity 2020 Wien Parity Parity Parity 2017
Warsaw Parity 2019 2024 2029 Warsaw Parity Parity 2020 2025 Warsaw Parity Parity 2020 2025
Lisbon Parity Parity Parity Parity Lisbon Parity Parity Parity Parity Lisbon Parity Parity Parity Parity
Bucharest Parity Parity 2019 2024 Bucharest Parity Parity 2018 2023 Bucharest Parity Parity 2017 2020
Ljubljana Parity Parity 2019 2024 Ljubljana Parity Parity 2018 2022 Ljubljana Parity Parity Parity 2020
Bratislava Parity 2018 2022 2027 Bratislava Parity Parity Parity 2019 Bratislava Parity Parity Parity 2017
Oslo 2023 2028 2036 2045 Oslo 2019 2022 2029 2037 Oslo Parity 2019 2024 2029
Zurich Parity Parity Parity 2020 Zurich Parity Parity Parity 2017 Zurich Parity Parity Parity Parity

46
 PV LCOE for a 50 MWp system (w/o company taxes)

Helsinki/ Munich Toulouse Rome Malaga India Additional CAPEX

80 Stockholm with 10% nom. WACC
PV LCOE (€/MWh) for 50 MWp

60 Additional CAPEX
with 7% nom. WACC

40 Additional CAPEX
with 4% nom. WACC

20 CAPEX with 2% nom.

WACC

0
OPEX
2050

2050
2017
2020
2030
2040
2050

2017
2020
2030
2040

2017
2020
2030
2040
2050

2017
2020
2030
2040
2050

2017
2020
2030
2040
2050

2017
2020
2030
2040
2017 CAPEX EU 0.69 €/Wp, India 0.56 €/Wp; OPEX 14 €/kWp/a; 2050 CAPEX 0.25 €/Wp & OPEX 7.5 €/kWp/a;
47
lifetime 30 a, degradation 0.5%/a, inflation 2%/a; Prices in 2017 real money
 PV is already the cheapest electricity form almost
everywhere
• Utility-scale PV LCOE based on Q1/2017 CAPEX (0.7 €/Wp) with 4% nominal
WACC
Stockholm
50 €/MWh

Texas
28 €/MWh Toulouse
40 €/MWh India
29 €/MWh
Malaga
30 €/MWh

Australia
South Africa 26 €/MWh
25 €/MWh

Chile
20 €/MWh

Initial yield (h) Applied to all locations:

Stockholm 990 CAPEX 700 €/kW p (base case 50 MWp)
Toulouse 1260 OPEX 14 €/kW p/a (base case 50 MW p)
Malaga 1680 Discount factor 4%
48 India 1700 Inflation 2,0%
Texas 1800 Lifetime 30 years
Australia 1900 Initial degradation 1,0%
South Africa 2000 Continued degradation 0,5%/a
Chile 2500
Current records: Recent announced long-term contract prices for
solar to be commissioned 2017-2020, no subsidies except for US*
Germany
43 €/MWh

United States
36 €/MWh
UAE
22 €/MWh
Mexico
25 €/MWh India
32 €/MWh
Saudi Arabia
16 €/MWh

Chile
20 €/MWh

Sources: PV magazine, Solarplaza

49 49
*) US PPA includes a tax credit
Fortum – business in solar energy
• Launched 2012 in Finland and Sweden
Solar kits for
residential • Fortum as interface to the customer and system integrator of turn-key solutions
customers • Standardized solar kits of 6 to 36 panels – 1.5 to 9 kWp
B2C

• > 20 kW tailored systems for commercial customers

Solar solutions • Fortum as energy partner offering turnkey solutions according to facility specs
for commercial
customers
and customer needs
B2B • Supply and installations in co-operation with trusted partners

• Fortum buys back surplus electricity from solar energy systems

Buyback of • Price is linked to NordPool spot price – Fortum commission (0.003 euro/kWh)
surplus • Remote-readable and hourly measuring electricity meter is required
production

• Fortum as owner and operator of solar power plants, typical size 5-100 MWp
Energy
producer with • In June 2013, Fortum acquired a 5.4 MW p solar PV plant in India
large scale solar • In January 2015, Fortum commissioned a 12 MWp solar PV plant in India
energy farms
• Fortum has constructed in 2017 two (total > 200 MWp) solar PV plants in India

50
Fortum solar projects - Amrit,
State of Rajasthan

Fortum acquired a 5 MW solar power plant

in June 2013
The power plant's nominal peak capacity is
5.4 megawatts and its annual production is
approximately 9 gigawatt-hours

51
Fortum solar projects - Kapeli,
State of Madhya Pradesh

Fortum’s first greenfield solar project

• Launched in January 2015
• The 12 MWp solar plant offsets more than
18000 tonnes of CO2 emissions annually
• The plant spreads over about 70 acres
• Over 125.000 modules and 15 inverters

52
Fortum solar projects - Bhadla,
State of Rajasthan

In January 2016 Fortum won a reverse

auction for the 70 MWac project
• Solar plant was built at Bhadla solar park in
Rajasthan
• Commissioned in 2017

53
Fortum solar projects - Tumkur,
State of Karnataka

In April 2016 Fortum won a bid for

100 MWac solar power park
• The park is built in Pavagada Solar Park in
Tumkur District Karnataka
• The construction was started in November
2016 and expected commissioning in 2017

54
Fortum solar projects – 20 kWp Café Carusel (Helsinki)
• Commissioning 2013
• Annual yield 19 500 kWh
• Peak power 19.6 kW
• 80 Naps 245 W PV modules
• 2 SMA inverters

55
Fortum solar projects: Glava Energy Center in Sweden –
a 208 kWp PV system connected to Fortum’s former grid

56
 Fortum solar projects: Espoo City car depot in Finland
- a 55 kWp PV system to charge electric vehicles

57
First residential system sold by Fortum in Finland 2012
The study has been carried out under the framework of the EU PV Technology
and Innovation Platform (ETIP PV) Steering Committee.
 43 % of 2015 generation (about 1300 kWh) was sold to the grid

250
Surplus

Solar PV production (kWh)

Own consumption
200

150

100

50

59
Thank you for attention!

About 70 000 solar PV

modules (~ 17 MWp)
were installed around the world
during this lecture (1.5 h).
[email protected]