PROBABILITY AND

CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY

To understand conditional probability

To be able to construct venn diagrams
To understand and use the addition,
multiplication and conditional
probability rules
To be able to use tree diagrams for
conditional probability
A fair die has six faces numbered 1, 2,
2, 3, 3 and 3. The die is rolled twice and
the number showing on the uppermost
face is recorded each time.
Find the probability that the sum of the
two numbers recorded is at least 5.
(Total 5 marks)
+ 1 2 2 3 3 3
1 2 3 3 4 4 4
2 3 4 4 5 5 5
2 3 4 4 5 5 5
3 4 5 5 6 6 6
3 4 5 5 6 6 6
3 4 5 5 6 6 6

P(at least 5) = 21 = 7
36 12
A company assembles drills using
components from two sources. Goodbuy
supplies 85% of the components and
Amart supplies the rest. It is known that
3% of the components supplied by
Goodbuy are faulty and 6% of those
supplied by Amart are faulty.
(a)Represent this information on a tree
diagram. (3)
An assembled drill is selected at random.
(b) Find the probability that it is not
faulty. (3)
(Total 6 marks)
 Faulty
0.03

Goodbuy
0.85 0.97
Not faulty
Faulty

0.15 0.06
Amart

0.94
Not faulty

P(not faulty) = (0.85 x 0.97) + (0.15 x 0.94)

= 0.9655
 P(A) = 0.4
P(B) = 0.75
P(A ∩ B) = 0.35
a) Draw a venn diagram to show this
information (3)
b) Calculate P(A ∪ B)
(1)
c) Calculate P(A` ∩ B`)
(1)
d) Calculate P(A` ∪ B)
(1)
 A B S

0.0 0.3 0.4

5 5

0.2

a) P(A ∪ B) = 0.4 + 0.75 – 0.35 = 0.8

b) P(A` ∩ B`) = 0.2
c) P(A` ∪ B) = 0.95
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
The probability of B may be different if you
know that A has already occurred.

A B S

a- i b-
i i

The probability of B given A = i

a

The probability of P(BA) = P(A∩B)

P(A)
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
In a class of 20 students 10 study French, 9
study Maths and 3 study both

Fren Mat S
ch hs
7 3 6

The probability they study Maths given that

they study French

The probability of P(MF) = P(M∩F) = 3

P(F) 10
 MULTIPLICATION RULE

P(BA) = P(A∩B)
P(A)

P(A∩B) = P(BA) x P(A)

P(A∩B) = P(BA)P(A)
EXAMPLE 1
2 fair spinners are numbered 1 to 4. They are
spun and the sum of the numbers are
recorded.
Given that at least one spinner lands on a 3,
find the probability that the spinners sum
exactly 5.
+ 1 2 3 4 P(A) = at least one 3
1 2 3 4 5 P(B) = sum of exactly
2 3 4 5 6 5
3 4 5 6 7 P(BA) = 2

4 5 6 7 8 7
EXAMPLE 1
2 fair spinners are numbered 1 to 4. They are
spun and the sum of the numbers are
recorded.
Given that at least one spinner lands on a 3,
find the probability that the spinners sum
exactly 5.
+ 1 2 3 4 P(A) = at least one 3 =
1 2 3 4 5
7
/16
2 3 4 5 6 P(A ∩ B) = 2/16
3 4 5 6 7 P(BA) = P(A ∩ B) = 2/16

4 5 6 7 8 P(A) 7
/16

P(BA) = 2
/16 ÷ 7/16 = 2/16 x 16
/7
= 2/7
EXAMPLE 2 Calculate
P(C) = 0.2 a) P(D  C)
P(D) = 0.6 P(C`∩D`)
P(C D) = P (C`∩D)
0.3
P(C∩D) = P(CD) x P(D)
P(C∩D) = 0.3 x 0.6 = 0.18

C D S

0.0 0.1 0.4

2 8 2

0.3
8
C D S

0.0 0.1 0.4

2 8 2

0.3
8
P(D  C) = P(C∩D) = 0.18 = 0.9
P( C ) 0.2

P(C`∩D`) = 0.38

P(C`∩D) = 0.42
Tree diagrams and conditional probability
P(B| P(A∩B)=P(A) P(B|A)
A)
P(
A) P(B`| P(A∩B`)=P(A) P(B`|A)
A)
P(B| P(A`∩B)=P(A`) P(B|A`)
P(A A`)
`)
P(B`| P(A`∩B`)=P(A`) P(B`|
A`) A`)
Event Event
A B
 Example 1
The turnout at an event is dependent on the
weather. On a rainy day the probability of a
big turnout is 0.4, but if it does not rain, the
probability of a big turnout increases to 0.9.
The weather forecast gives a probability of
0.75 that it will rain on the day of the race.
a) Find the probability that there is a big turnout
and it rains
b) Find the probability that there is a big turnout
 Example 1
The turnout at an event is dependent on the weather. On a
rainy day the probability of a big turnout is 0.4, but if it does
not rain, the probability of a big turnout increases to 0.9. The
weather forecast gives a probability of 0.75 that it will rain on
the day of the race.
a) Find the probability that there is a big turnout and it rains
b) Find the probability that there is a big turnout

P( a) 0.75 x 0.4 = 0.3

0.
4 B)
0. P( b) 0.3 + (0.25x0.9) =
0.
75 R) P(B 0.525
6
`)
P(
0. 0.
P(R B)
25 9
`) 0. P(B
1 `)
 Example 2
A and B are two events
P(A|B) = 0.1, P(A|B`) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.3
Find
a) P(A∩B)
b) P(A∩B`)
c) P(A)
d) P(B|A)
e) P(B|A`)
Example 2 A and B are two events P(A|B) = 0.1, P(A|
B`) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.3
Find a)P(A∩B) b) P(A∩B`) c) P(A) d) P(B|A)
e) P(B|A`)
a)P(A∩B)=P(A|
B)P(B)=0.1x0.3=0.03
b) P(A∩B`)=P(A|
B`)P(B`)=0.6x0.7=0.42
A B S

0.4 0.0 0.2

2 3 7

0.2
8
c)P(A) = 0.42+0.03 = 0.45
d)P(B|A)= 0.03 e)P(B|A`)= 0.27
= 0.06 = 0.490
0.45 0.55
 Example 2 A and B are two events P(A|B) = 0.1, P(A|
B`) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.3
Find a)P(A∩B) b) P(A∩B`) c) P(A) d) P(B|A)
e) P(B|A`)
0. P(
1 A)
0. P( 0.
3 B) P(A
9
`)
P(
0. 0.
P(B A)
7 6
`) 0. P(A
4 `)
a)P(A∩B) = 0.3 x 0.1 = 0.03

b)P(A∩B`) = 0.7 x 0.6 = 0.42

c)P(A) = P(A∩B) + P(A∩B`) = 0.45

d)P(B|A) = P(B∩A) = 0.03 = 0.06 Note this is exactly the same

as the venn diagrams
P(A) 0.45