DRAFT GCE A level Mathematics (9MA0) – Paper 31 Statistics
Summer 2019 Shadow Paper student-friendly mark scheme
Please note that this DRAFT mark scheme is not the one used by
examiners for making scripts. It is intended more as a guide to
good practice, indicating where marks are given for correct
answers. As such, it doesn’t show follow-through marks (marks
that are awarded despite errors being made) or special cases.
It should also be noted that for many questions, there may be
alternative methods of finding correct solutions that are not
shown here – they will be covered in the formal mark scheme.
This document is intended for guidance only and may differ
significantly from the mark schemes used by examiners.
Guidance on the use of codes within this document
M1 – method mark. This mark is generally given for an appropriate method in
the context of the question. This mark is given for showing your working and
may be awarded even if working is incorrect.
A1 – accuracy mark. This mark is generally given for a correct answer
following correct working.
B1 – working mark. This mark is usually given when working and the answer
cannot easily be separated.
Some questions require all working to be shown; in such questions, no marks
will be given for an answer with no working (even if it is a correct answer).
Question 1 (Total 8 marks)
Part Working or answer an examiner might Mark Notes
expect to see
(a) B1 This mark is given for a correct shape
and labels for a tree diagram
G
G
G
G R
G B1 This mark is given for the correct
G G probabilities shown
R
R G
(b) 7 7 9 M1 This mark is given for a multiplication
´ ´
8 8 10 of three probabilities
441 A1 This mark is given for the correct
= probability that Julia selects three
640
scarves
(c) æ7 1ö + æ7 7 1 ö M1 This mark is given for the addition of
ç ´ ÷ ç ´ ´ ÷ two products
è 8 8 ø è 8 8 10 ø
119 A1 This mark is given for the correct
= probability that Julia selects at least one
640
scarf of each colour
(d) P(red form B ï red selected) = M1 This mark is given for determining the
correct ratio of probabilities
7 1
´
8 8 = 7 ´ 640
441 64 199
1-
640
70 A1 This mark is given for the correct
= probability that Julia selects a red scarf
99
from bag B
DRAFT A level Mathematics 9MA0 Mathematics 3: Statistics – 2019 shadow paper mark scheme (Version1.0) 2
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Question 2 (Total 11 marks)
Part Working or answer an examiner might Mark Notes
expect to see
(a) IQR = 26.6 – 19.4 = 7.2 B1 This mark is given for finding the
interquartile range
19.4 – (1.5 ´ 7.2) = 8.6 M1 This mark is given for a method find the
values for the whiskers of the boxplot
19.4 + (1.5 ´ 7.2) = 37.4
A1 This mark is given for plotting the
correct whisker (8.6) on the boxplot
A1 This mark is given for plotting the two
correct outliers 7.6 °C and 8.1 °C
(b) October (since it is the month with the B1 This mark is given for a correct
coldest temperatures between May and suggestion with a supporting reason.
October in Beijing)
(c) S xx 4877.585 B1 This mark is given for showing the
s= = = Ö29.38 = 5.42
n 166 calculation for the standard deviation to
three significant figures
(d) z = (±) 1.2816 B1 This mark is given for identifying the
z-value for the 10th and 90th percentiles
(from tables or calculator)
2 ´ z ´ 5.42 M1 This mark is given for a method to find
the interpercentile range between the
10th and 90th value
= 13.9 A1 This mark is given for finding a correct
interpercentile range between the 10th
and 90th value
(e) Daily wind speed (Beaufort) since it is B1 This mark si given for stating a correct
qualitative data variable with a supporting reason
Rainfall (since it is not symmetric) B1 This mark is given for stating a correct
variable with a supporting reason
DRAFT A level Mathematics 9MA0 Mathematics 3: Statistics – 2019 shadow paper mark scheme (Version1.0) 3
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Question 3 (Total 9 marks)
Part Working or answer an examiner might Mark Notes
expect to see
(a) H0 : r = 0 B1 This mark is given for both hypotheses in
terms of r found correctly
H1 : r > 0
For sample size 24 at the 5% level of M1 This mark is given for selecting a suitable
significance, the critical value = 0.3438 critical value compatible with H1
0.4771 > 0.3438, so reject H0 A1 This mark is given for a correct
There is evidence that the product moment conclusion stated
correlation coefficient (pmcc) is greater
than 0
(b) The value of the pmcc is close to 1 so there B1 This mark is given for a correct
is a strong positive correlation explanation about the strength of the
correlation
(c) log10 y = –0.47 + 0.92 log10 x M1 This mark is given for a correct
substitution of both c and m
y = 10–0.47 + 0.92 log x M1 This mark is given for dealing with logs
to find an expression in terms of y
y = 10–0.47 ´ 10 0.92 log x M1 This mark is given for a method to find
0.92
values for a and n
y = 10–0.47 ´ 10 (log x )
y = 0.338 ´ x0.92 A1 This mark is given for find a correct value
of a = 0.338
A1 This mark is given for find a correct value
of n = 0.92
DRAFT A level Mathematics 9MA0 Mathematics 3: Statistics – 2019 shadow paper mark scheme (Version1.0) 4
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Question 4 (Total 9 marks)
Part Working or answer an examiner might Mark Notes
expect to see
(a) 55 + 35 90 B1 This mark is given for a correct value for
= = 0.462
195 195 the probability for the cloud cover
(b)(i) P(X ³ 7) = 1 – P(X £ 6) M1 This mark is given for using 1 – P(X £ 5)
with B(8, 0.78)
= 1 – 0.5538 A1 This mark is given for finding as correct
= 0.446 value for the probability
(b)(ii) 195 ´ P(X = 7) M1 This mark is given for using
195 ´ P(X = 7) with B(8, 0.78)
= 195 ´ 0.3092
= 60.3 A1 This mark is given for finding a correct
value for the expected number of days
(c) The answer to part (b)(i) of 0.446 is similar B1 This mark is given for a correct
to 0.462 in part (a) evaluation of the outcomes from part (b)
The answer to part (b)(ii) of 60.3 is very to determine the appropriateness of
close to 59 found in the data set Chen’s model
(d) 9 + 11 20 B1 This mark is given for a correct value for
= = 0.645
31 31 the probability for the cloud cover
(e) The answer to part (d) of 0.645 is greater B1 This mark is given for a correct
than that in part (a) of 0.462 comparison for the answer to part (d)
This shows that there is a higher chance of with the data set
having high cloud cover if the previous day
had high cloud cover
Thus independence does not hold so a B1 This mark is given for a correct
binomial model might not be suitable conclusion stated
DRAFT A level Mathematics 9MA0 Mathematics 3: Statistics – 2019 shadow paper mark scheme (Version1.0) 5
© Pearson Education Ltd.
Question 5 (Total 13 marks)
Part Working or answer an examiner might Mark Notes
expect to see
(a) 27.29 - 28 M1 This mark is given for standardising as
= –1.6449
s part of a method to find s
s = 0.4316 A1 This mark is given for a correct value
of s
P(D > K) = 0.6 or P(D < K) = 0.4 B1 This mark is given for finding two
probablilties
k - 28 k - 28 M1 This mark is given for using a normal
= = 0.2533 model to find the probability
s 0.4316
k = 28.11 A1 This mark is given for a correct value
for k
(b) Y ~ B(200, 0.55) so W ~ N(100, 49.5) B1 This mark is given for setting up the
normal distribution approximation of the
binomial
æ 99.5 - 100 ö M1 This mark is given for using the
P(Y < 100) » P(W < 99.5) = P çç Z < ÷÷
è 49.5 ø normal model with a continuity
correction
= 0.0678 A1 This mark is given for finding a correct
value of the probability
(c) H0 : µ = 28 B1 This mark is given for both hypotheses in
terms of µ found correctly
H1 : µ < 28
æ 0.7 2 ö M1 This mark is given for a method to set up
D ~ N çç 28, ÷÷
è 20 ø the normal distribution
P( D < 27.95) = 0.0206 A1 This mark is given for using the model to
find a correct p-value
p = 0.0206 < 0.05, so reject H0 M1 This mark is given for a correct
comparison and non-contextual
conclusion
There is sufficient evidence to support A1 This mark is given for a correct
Hannah’s belief conclusion in context stated
DRAFT A level Mathematics 9MA0 Mathematics 3: Statistics – 2019 shadow paper mark scheme (Version1.0) 6
© Pearson Education Ltd.
