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Casey Bergthold 01-26-24 Essay 1

The world of 2024 and beyond faces many challenges, both continentally

and globally. On a wide range scale, when looking at the challenges we face

globally, a few encompassing megatrends surface. These are, as stated in

the publication “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds,” in the provided

“overview” table, individual empowerment, the diffusion of power,

demographic patterns, and a resource (food, water, energy) nexus. These

broad megatrends then can be broken off into smaller categories which often

explain the root cause or causes that can lead to these megatrends. A few of

these specific challenges include the possibilities of nuclear war, the rise of

China, and climate change in the near future.

The first of these—nuclear war—only poses a threat should a war break out.

It could, of course, be the initial surprise attack that launches a war into

being, but the fact remains that the possibility of nuclear warfare would

theoretically accompany a war. IN a world of mistrust, many countries are

said to be building up their arsenals-- just in case. Thus, it is deemed the

least immediate global challenge of this list. “Global Trends 2030: Alternative

Worlds” mentions the potential for an interstate conflict outbreak, flagging

China, India, and Russia as key players and the constant increase of

available “instruments of war” as main components behind said outbreak.

Despite this, the article, “Nuclear War No Longer Seems To Scare Us As Much

As It Used To,” powerfully outlines the transition of “that fear – the bone-

deep terror of nuclear war” as seen in the “atomic Armageddon dominated”

twentieth century to the utterly desensitized present-day population, musing

that “it’s perhaps because we’re becoming accustomed to the unthinkable,”

(“Nuclear War No Longer”). The author, Jeff Sparrow, offers the notion that

our collective desensitization could be caused by the influx of countless

other significant disasters and emergencies that we continuously receive

through daily news outlets. The threat and fear of nuclear warfare has not

been forgotten, not been dulled, but rather buried under a landslide of

incoming news.

China, in particular, can be seen as a leading threat for nuclear warfare, as

among the steadily growing list of challenges China poses lies “Bejing’s

efforts to build up nuclear forces,” says Graham Russell of The Guardian in

the article “NATO Leaders Voice Concern About Threat That China Poses.”

The article is a telling overview of the observations and suggestions of world

leaders in response to China’s actions, culminating in a debate on the

invasion of Ukraine. Liz Truss, Uk foreign secretary, wisely reflects “there’s

always a tendency of wishful thinking, to hope that more bad things won’t

happen and to wait until it’s too late.” This is something that a rising, nuclear

warfare equipped China would not hesitate to take advantage of. Thus, the

second global challenge to be noted is the rise of China, which is briefly

mentioned in “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” as part of the

megatrend “diffusion of power,” stating that China is predicted to pass the

U.S. and become the largest economy before 2030. The same section also

predicts that Asia as a whole will surpass both the U.S. and Europe combined
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in global power in terms of “GDP, population size, military spending, and

technological investment,” (Global Trends 2023). The U.S., in addition to

dealing with China’s future invasions and other challenges it creates, will

have to adjust to no longer possessing global power.

A third and final global challenge we face is climate change. Though not the

most violently immediate challenge, climate change is widely an issue that,

like Liz Truss says of conflict response in regard to China, we wait until the

last minute to take action, hoping against undeniable empirical evidence that

the problem will be resolved without our having to engage and make

sacrifices. But we cannot continue in this way if we hope to preserve the

climate and, by extension, livelihood, of our planet. As the article “IPCC

Report: "Now or Never" if World is to Stave Off Climate Disaster” clearly

headlines, action must be taken now while something can be done. If we wait

it out, it will be too late. The article calls for a change to a low-carbon

society, bluntly acknowledging that “it will require a massive effort by

governments, businesses and individuals,” though the overall cost,

measured in GDP, “will be minimal,” (“IPCC Report”). According to the

article, this proposition, if put into effect, would potentially be able to cut our

environmentally harmful emissions to almost half the predicted levels- levels

that would warm the atmosphere to the point of causing irreversible climate

damage. The problem is, we change takes time, and that is one thing we are

quickly losing. The article offers a concise list of changes we must make if we

hope to avoid irreversible damage: cut out coal out completely, achieve at
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least a 1/3 methane deduction, go green- preserve and cultivate forests and

soil, increase funding for the shift to a low-carbon society, “all sectors of

global economy must look to new technologies like hydrogen fuel. A quote

from Pete Smith Aberdeen University professor of soils and global change

puts it into perspective: “we have one decade to get on track.” Only one

decade. Then it will be too late.

The world we live in today is not what it once was. The threat of modern,

nuclear weaponry; a looming, power hungry China; and the increase of

natural disasters brought on by a rapidly warming atmosphere plague our

future. The challenges present today would likely have been horrifically

inconceivable to those who inhabited the earth in past centuries. Can we

explain the change in our motivations and values from what they once were

in the vast technological advances, desire for power, and ever-worsening air

quality? Not alone, many would respond. Megatrends can help us look ahead

to the world we are becoming, referred to as “alternative worlds” in “Global

Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.” Though we have learned to predict our

future by what we have observed from past behavior, the reality of today is

that this is our earth. Every man, woman, and child that lives and breathes

here. We are the ones responsible for poisoning the earth with nuclear and

greenhouse gas emissions. But we have the choice to work together to

administer the antidote- to make the change, just as we have the choice to

continue letting the earth choke in the name of our greed and hate. The

question is, which will it be?