Key terms / Purpose of Intervals

• Parameter: a number that describes some characteristic of a population(s).

Why do we build confidence intervals? What purpose do they serve?
• Statistic: a number that describes some characteristic of a sample.
Many times we want to know something about a target population
• Sample Distribution: the shape of the distribution of a sample set of a quantitative variable.
(a parameter of interest that can either be a population proportion or mean).
• Population Distribution: the shape of the distribution of a population quantitative variable.
However, if the population is too large, we may lack the time or resources to
• Sampling Distribution: the distribution of values taken by the statistic in all possible conduct a census.
samples of the same size from the same population.
Therefore, we take a random sample to represent the population, collect a
• Point Estimate: a statistic that provides an estimate of a population.
variable of interest from the sample (statistic), and use the sample statistic to build
• Margin of Error: estimate that describes how far, at most, we expect the estimate to vary a confidence interval that can then be used to provide plausible values for a
from the true population value. parameter of interest.
• Standard Error: when the standard deviation of a statistic is estimated from data. The below conditions help to ensure that the sample is representative of the
• Critical Value: a multiplier that makes the interval wide enough to have the stated capture rate. population (random condition), not too large since we are sampling without
• Sampling Variability: refers to the fact that different random samples of the same size replacement (independence condition), and that we use a z/t approximately normal
from the same population produce different values for a statistic. distribution to construct the interval (normality condition).
• Unbiased Estimator: a statistic used to estimate a parameter. We will be using sample statistics to estimate population parameters in modules 5-8.

Confidence level* *AP Tip: Know the difference between interpreting the confidence level
and confidence interval.
If we were to build many, many confidence intervals using the same sample size and method, about __% of the constructed confidence intervals will capture the true parameter of interest (in context).

Confidence interval steps (PCCc)

Parameter: State the parameter of interest (be sure to include the word “all”, “true”, or “population” in your description).
• Ex. We are estimating the true proportion of students who watch soccer in Florida OR We are estimating the population mean travel time to work for Florida residents.
Conditions: Be sure to check the appropriate three conditions (it would be a “SIN” to forget them). Please see the conditions that need to be verified below on the right.
• To earn full credit, students must state and verify each of the conditions by substituting the correct values in the appropriate formulas and checking the random condition.
Calculations: Students must either substitute the correct values into the appropriate formula OR name the interval (see names below) and report the lower and upper bounds.
Proportions Means
By hand using formula: Using Calculator: When estimating a population mean, we use a z-interval when the population standard deviation is
known. Otherwise, we construct a t-interval.
1 proportion z-interval
Known Population Standard Deviation Unknown Population Standard Deviation
Specify:
x (successes) n (sample size) Degrees of Freedom = n-1
z* represents the critical value C-level (confidence level)
AP Tip: When naming an interval, do not use calculator terms (calculator Using Calculator: Proper Name:
Using Calculator: Proper Name:
speak). Instead, refer to the interval by its full name.
t-interval 1 sample t-interval for μ
1-prop z-interval (on calculator) is a 1-proportion z-interval z-interval 1 sample z-interval for μ

Conclusion: When asked to interpret the interval, the following template must be used along with context from the scenario. For means, be sure to include units as well.
• “We are ____% confident that the true population proportion/mean (in context) lies between (lower bound) and (upper bound).

Proper notation Checking conditions

Proportions Means Proportions (Categorical): when working Means (Quantitative): when working with
with sample proportions we are collecting sample means we are collecting a value with
binary responses (yes/no) from each member. units from each member.

Ex: proportion of students taking AP Exam. Ex: average AP Exam score at a school.

The following three conditions must be verified for either setting and two of them are
Remember that Populations produce Parameters and Samples collect Statistics (alliteration). the same (the third, Normality, is where they differ):
1) Simple Random Sample or Randomized Experiment (representative of population)
Sampling distributions 2) Independence - Sample must be less than 10% of population (since we are
sampling without replacement). To verify: N > 10n
From AP Stats Formula Sheet: 3) Normality: Large Counts Condition 3) Normality: Central Limit Theorem
Normality Condition for Proportions: Normality Condition for Means:
At least 10 “successes” and 10 “failures”. To verify, we must show that only one of the
When n is large, we can use a Normal following criteria has been met:
1. We are told the shape of population distribution
probability model to approximate binomial
is normal/approximately normal OR
probabilities if the Large Counts Condition is 2. n ≥ 30 and state that the CLT applies OR
met (be sure to substitute values to verify): 3. n < 30 and we verify the shape of the
distribution of the sample is not strongly skewed
and there are no outliers.
Calculator Tip: When estimating a population mean and the sample size is less than
30, use the calculator to create a boxplot to check for strong skewness and outliers.
Common Mistake: be sure to show work for both the Independence and Normality Conditions
by substituting the correct values in each of the inequalities.
• Many students lose credit on the AP statistics exam when defining parameters because their description refers to the sample instead of
the population or because the description isn't clear about which group of individuals the parameter is describing. When defining a
parameter, we suggest including the word “all”, “true”, or “population” in your description to make it clear that you aren't referring to a
sample statistic.

• Terminology matters. Never just say “the distribution.” Always say the “distribution of [blank]”, be careful to distinguish the distribution of
the population, the distribution of sample data, and the distribution of a statistic. Likewise, don't use ambiguous terms like “sample
distribution” which could refer to the distribution of the sample data or to the sampling distribution of a statistic. You will lose credit on
the free-response questions for misusing statistical terms.

• On the AP statistics exam, a common error is to write an ambiguous statement such as “the variability decreases when the sample size
increases.” This statement may be true for the sampling distribution but it almost certainly is not true for the distribution of the sample.
The correct statement here would be “the variability of the sampling distribution decreases when the sample size increases.”

• Many students think that larger populations require larger samples to get good estimates. They think that to get a good estimate, a
certain percentage of the population must be sampled. This is not the case. The precision of the estimate is based mostly on the number
of individuals in the sample (not the percent of the population) and that the sample was selected randomly.

• Notation matters. The symbols all have specific and different meanings. Either use notation correctly–or don’t use it at all. You can expect
to lose credit if you use incorrect notation.

• Many students lose credit on probability calculations involving x-bar because they forget to divide the population standard deviation by
the square root of n. Remember that averages are less variable than individual observations.

• The free response section almost always has a question that asks students to calculate a probability of some sort. Students should always
check the necessary conditions before calculating a probability even if the question doesn't specifically ask for the conditions. Students
will not be asked to perform a probability calculation in a context where the conditions have not been met. There may, however, be a
question that focuses on just the conditions. In this case, the conditions may not be met.

• The Random and Independence conditions are the same for sampling distributions that involve proportions and means. The only
condition that changes is the Normality condition. When working with proportions we must check the Large Counts Condition (10 success-
es and failures, respectively) and when working with means we must check the criteria for the Central Limit Theorem (n ≥ 30).

• If a free-response question asks you to construct and interpret a confidence interval, you are expected to do the entire four-step process.
That includes clearly defining the Parameter, checking Conditions, Calculations, and the Conclusion. Yes, all four conditions.

• When estimating a population mean, if you are unsure whether the standard deviation given is from a population or sample, it is best to
determine a t-interval.

• When estimating a population mean, and your sample size is fewer than 30 observations AND the population shape is not given to be
approximately normal, it is not enough just to make a graph of the data on the calculator when assessing Normality. You must sketch the
graph on your paper and verify there is no strong skewness or outliers to receive credit. You don't have to draw multiple graphs, any
appropriate graph will do.

• If asked to solve for the minimum sample size for a stated margin of error and confidence level for a population proportion and a sample
statistic, p-hat, is not given, use 0.5 as the sample proportion. This will ensure that the appropriate sample size is determined for the given
confidence level and margin of error.

• When interpreting a confidence interval, we must say that we are ___ % confident. Words such “certain”, “probability”, and “sure” will
always result in no credit being awarded. As an example, being “95% confident” means that if we were to build many, many confidence
intervals using the same sample size and method, about 95% of the constructed confidence intervals will capture the true parameter of
interest. Once an interval is constructed, the interval with either capture the true parameter or not.
Please note the last line contains the various confidence levels. When in need of a t-critical value (t*), see where confidence level
column intersects the appropriate degrees of freedom. For z*, use df = infinity row (last row) and confidence level.