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Roll No. •
2.
SCHOOL OF MATHEMATICS, TIET, PATIALA
End Semester Exam, May 2023

B.L. IV Semester LICS410 : Probability

Instructions: You are expected to answer all questions. Non-programmable calculators are permitted.

1. (a) A positive integer from 1 to 6 is to be chosen by casting a die. Thus the elements of the
sample space S are 1,2,3,4,5,6. Let A = {1,2,3,4} and B = {3. 4, 5, 6}. if the probability set.
function P assigns a probability of 6 to each of the element of S, Compute
(i) P(.4) (ii) P(B) (iii) P(A U B) (iv) P(Ac fl B). [2 marks]
(b) Given a standard normal distribution, find the value of k such that
(i) P(Z > k) = 0.2946;
(ii)P(Z < k) = 0.0427;
(iii) P(-0.93 < Z < k) = 0.7235. [3 marks]
(c) Define the Uniform distribution of a continuous random variable. Also find its mean, variance
and moment generation function. [5 marks]

2. (a) The Joint density function of X and Y is given by

f(x,y) = k(2x + y); x = 0,1,2. y = 0,1,2.

(i) Find the value of k; (ii) Find Marginal distributions of X and Y; (iii) Are X and Y
independent variables? (iv) Find conditional distribution of Y for X = x. [5 marks]
(b) The daily consumption of milk in excess of 20,000 gallons is approximately exponential dis-
tribution with mean 3000. The city has daily stock of 35,000 gallons. What is the probability
that of two days selected at random, the stock is insufficient for both days? [5 marks]

3 (a) Many cardiac patients wear an implanted pacemaker to control their heartbeat. A plastic
connector module mounts on the top of the pacemaker. Assuming a standard deviation of
0.0015 inch and an approximately normal distribution,
(i) find a 95% confidence interval for the mean of the depths of all connector modules made
by a certain manufacturing company. A random sample of 75 modules has an average depth
of 0.310 inch.
(ii) How large a sample is needed if we wish to be 95% confident that our sample mean will be
within 0.0005 inch of the true mean? [2.5+2.5 marks]
n
E(Xi — 1)2
(b) Show that 82 = is a biased estimator for a2. [2.5 marks]
(c) Suppose that there are n trials xl, x2, x3, , xn from a Bernoulli process with parameter p,
the probability of success. Determine the maximum likelihood estimator for the parameter p.
[2.5 marks]
P. T.0
i•I In .,; t hen an• !i56 births in a town A (ii \vhicli X11 5`.J \vete wales wild,. !( , \vii , A iu“I H
conild;:es this proportion in ki total of 1-106 lUrtlis was ()...1'96 Is I hew
Tort -ion of inalc birtli in two towns' Ust levci of iLl“ MAI L.

1)) The demand for a !a spare part in ,1 factory \vas found to be Nar) frun! t ,-(Ly 111
a :,a114', udy. the• iiiionni-ition v. obtained
Days Monday \Vednesia1 Fild;1\
No parts d, luauded: 112! 1125 1110 1 .L20 1120 - 1115
Test the hypothesis that the number of parts demanded does not depend on the day of the
week. 17:4' x2 (0.05) for 5 degree of freedom=11.07. marks1

Table of the Standard Normal Cumulative Distribution Function

Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09

-3.4 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002
-3.3 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0003
-3.2 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005
-3.1 0.0010 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007
-3.0 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0012 0.0012 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0010 0.0010
-2.9 0.0019 0.0018 0.0018 0.0017 0.0016 0.0016 0.0015 0.0015 0.0014 0.0014
-2.8 0.0026 0.0025 0.0024 0.0023 0.0023 0.0022 0.0021 0.0021 0.0020 0.0019
-2.7 0.0035 0.0034 0.0033 0.0032 0.0031 0.0030 0.0029 0.0028 0.0027 0.0026
-2.6 0.0047 0.0045 0.0044 0.0043 0.0041 0.0040 0.0039 0.0038 0.0037 0.0036
-2.5 0.0062 0.0060 0.0059 0.0057 0.0055 0.0054 0.0052 0.0051 0.0049 0.0048
-2.4 0.0082 0.0080 0.0078 0.0075 0.0073 0.0071 0.0069 0.0068 0.0066 0.0064
-2.3 0.0107 0.0104 0.0102 0.0099 0.0096 0.0094 0.0091 0.0089 0.0087 0.0084
-2.2 0.0139 0.0136 0.0132 0.0129 0.0125 0.0122 0.0119 0.0116 0.0113 0.0110
-2.1 0.0179 0.0174 0.0170 0.0166 0.0162 0.0158 0.0154 0.0150 0.0146 0.0143
-2.0 0.0228 0.0222 0.0217 0.0212 0.0207 0.0202 0.0197 0.0192 0.0188 0.0183
-1.9 0.0287 0.0281 0.0274 0.0268 0.0262 0.0256 0.0250 0.0244 0.0239 0.0233
-1.8 0.0359 0.0351 0.0344 0.0336 0.0329 0.0322 0.0314 0.0307 0.0301 0.0294
-1.7 0.0446 0.0436 0.0427 0.0418 0.0409 0.0401 0.0392 0.0384 0.0375 0.0367
-1.6 0.0548 0.0537 0.0526 0.0516 0.0505 0.0495 0.0485 0.0475 0.0465 0.0455
-1.5 0.0668 0.0655 0.0643 0.0630 0.0618 0.0606 0.0594 0.0582 0.0571 0.0559
-1.4 0.0808 0.0793 0.0778 0.0764 0.0749 0.0735 0.0721 0.0708 0.0694 0.0681
-1.3 0.0968 0.0951 0.0934 0.0918 0.0901 0.0885 0.0869 0.0853 0.0838 0.0823
-1.2 0.1151 0.1131 0.1112 0.1093 0.1075 0.1056 0.1038 0.1020 0.1003 0.0985
-1.1 0.1357 0.1335 0.1314 0.1292 0.1271 0.1251 0.1230 0.1210 0.1190 0.1170
-1.0 0.1587 0.1562 0.1539 0.1515 0.1492 0.1469 0.1446 0.1423 0.1401 0.1379
-0.9 0.1841 0.1814 0.1788 0.1762 0.1736 0.1711 0.1685 0.1660 0.1635 0.1611
-0.8 0.2119 0.2090 0.2061 0.2033 0.2005 0.1977 0.1949 0.1922 0.1894 0.1867
-0.7 0.2420 0.2389 0.2358 0.2327 0.2296 0.2266 0.2236 0.2206 0.2177 0.2148
-0.6 0.2743 0.2709 0.2676 0.2643 0.2611 0.2578 0.2546 0.2514 0.2483 0.2451
-0.5 0.3085 0.3050 0.3015 0.2981 0.2946 0.2912 0.2877 0.2843 0.2810 0.2776
-0.4 0.3446 0.3409 0.3372 0.3336 0.3300 0.3264 0.3228 0.3192 0.3156 0.3121
-0.3 0.3821 0.3783 0.3745 0.3707 0.3669 0.3632 0.3594 0.3557 0.3520 0.3483
-0.2 0.4207 0.4168 0.4129 0.4090 0.4052 0.4013 0.3974 0.3936 0.3897 0.3859
-0.1 0.4602 0.4562 0.4522 0.4483 0.4443 0.4404 0.4364 0.4325 0.4286 0.4247
-0.0 0.5000 0.4960 0.4920 0.4880 0.4840 0.4801 0.4761 0.4721 0.4681 0.4641