MODULE 4: UNDERSTANDING AND MANAGING POPULATION

DYNAMICS ACROSS THE WORLD IN GENERAL AND CAMEROON IN

PARTICULAR
TOPIC: POPULATION NUMBERS
Introduction
Population geography has become an important part among all other sub branches of human
geography since most geographers realize that the numbers, densities, and characteristics of
human population provide an essential background for all geography and equally serves as a
reference point from which all other geographic elements are observed and from which they
singly or collectively derive significance and meaning.
As a study of spatial variation in human population, this study involves absolute numbers,
population characteristics, its distribution, growth and mobility. In it simplest terms, it can be
defined as “a science that deals with the distribution, composition, occupational structure,
migration and growth or decline of population in time and space”. It is also considered as the
study of the distribution of people on the earth surface, the evolution of human societies and how
far these societies have succeeded overtime and space.
Demography which is the scientific study of aspects population especially the absolute numbers
and demographic processes such as fertility, mortality, growth rate, etc is most often confused
with population geography. But a clear cut difference exist between them as seen below.
Differences between population geography and demography
 Population geography lay emphasis on the spatial variation in human population, their
characteristics and their relationship with physical, cultural and economic phenomena while
demography is concerned with mainly enumeration (head count) of population using absolute
numbers and employing statistical methods and demographic processes.
 Demography is narrower in scope than population geography and is viewed as a single topic
in population studies.
 Demography examines various physical, intellectual and character qualities of populations in
relation to quantitative aspects while population geography tries to unravel the complex
interrelationship between physical and human environment and population respectively.

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Lesson 1: SOURCES OF POPULATION DATA
Population is looked from the numerical point and how this number changes with time. To
determine the degree of change of this numbers, a number of sources or methods are used. These
methods have been grouped into two categories. That is;
o The static source, which helps to ascertain the distribution and structure of a population. This
include; censuses, sample surveys, population commissions and enquiries.
o The dynamic sources include vital registration, migration records, changes in population
structure, records of change in occupation, employment and others.
Based on this, the following four methods are widely recognized and used.
1. Census: This is the total process of collecting, compiling and publishing demographic
pertaining to all persons in a defined territory at a particular time. It also refers to the
complete count of the population in a given country at a particular time or period.
Earliest modern censuses took place in Scandinavia and some Germanic and Italian states during
the 18th century. The first general census in USA took place in 1790, Britain and France in 1801.
Census has become the most important, reliable and widely used source of population statics
today and the period when a census is conducted varies from country to country. For example, in
Cameroon, it is done after 10years, Britain 10years. Other countries do it after 5years. The last
census in Cameron was conducted in 2005. The persons who do the counting during censuses are
known as enumerators. Two approaches are used in census.
a) The ‘de facto’ approach: In this approach, the counting and recording of each individual is
done at the place where he or she is found at the time of the census. This method is used in
Britain. With this method, there is the danger of double counting because of population
mobility which may inflate population figures. It is also very expensive and time consuming
especially as people are always mobile.
b) The ‘de jure’ approach: Here, the counting and recording of people is done according to
their usual place of residence. This approach is used in the USA. It is less satisfactory due to
the multiple residences of some people, the homelessness of others and population mobility
as it may make some people not to be counted. However, both approaches are used in Brazil
so as to avoid the weaknesses of both methods and benefit from their advantages. The “de
facto’ method has proven to be the best as the enumerator visits each house and do a head to
head count.

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According to the UN, a good census should comprise of;
 The total population
 Sex, age composition and marital status
 Educational qualifications and literacy level
 Economic characteristics
 Occupational distribution
 Household or family structure
 Nationality or place of birth or citizenship
 Fertility
 Urban or rural residence or housing structure
 The population/resource level of combination.
Advantages of census.
o It helps the country to estimate the working population
o It creates temporal employment for those involved
o It ,makes it possible for the total population of a country to be known
o It helps the government in her socio-economic development plans.
Disadvantages of census
o It usually disturbs economic activities
o It is too expensive or costly especially to poor countries due to its broad spectrum. Because
of it expensive nature, countries like Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Lebanon, Yemen, Vietnam, etc
do not undertake it.
o Data obtained from censuses present a lot of inaccuracy since people can falsify information.
o There is the possibility of double counting and non-counting of some people. For example,
children in rural areas who die before registration.
o Delays in the publication of results so that information is outdated by the time the results are
published.
o Inadequacy as not all information can be recorded.
2. Sample Surveys: This involves taking a portion of the full population to be a worthwhile and
meaningful representation of that population. In other words, it is an exercise whereby a
small proportion of a population is taken to represent the total population of a region. With

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 this method, information that could have been provided by the entire population is provided
by the small proportion of the population and this information can be obtained by posing
questions directly to the population (interviews) or composing and administering
questionnaires whereby the population is expected to provide answers which would ease the
collection and compilation of data. Using this method, the first step is by constructing a
sample frame. A sample frame is the proportion of the population that may be taken to
represent the total population of an area. And choosing a sample frame that would represent
the phenomenon under study, remains the most difficult problem.
However, to make a sample as accurate a possible, certain methods such as; the use of points,
lines or areas have been developed. For this, information can be obtained either through
random or systematic procedures which can either be in strata (stratified sampling) or
clusters. This method is also used in USA
Advantages of sample surveys
o It is less time consuming and can allow for more rapid analysis and publication of results.
o There is a decrease in human labour input and this further reduces cost.
o It is very economical as costs can greatly be reduced without a substantial reduction in
accuracy. This is because only a small proportion of the population is interviewed.
o It adds more meaning to census data by supplementing. This is because it can be used even
within censuses in order to obtain more detailed information on some aspects or groups.
o In some cases, it is very accurate when carefully designed and carried out by experts.
Disadvantages of sample surveys
o The population can either be overestimated or under estimated in some regions leading to
faulty results.
o There is bias inherent in the procedure of sampling
o Difficulties of choosing a sample frame that will adequately cover the phenomenon under
study or which will be representative of the whole population.
3. Vital Registrations: This involves the continuous, compulsory and legal recording of vital
events such as birth, deaths, marriages, divorces, annulments, separations and adoptions. All
these indicate the nature and possible changes in population. This system is very operational
in developed countries like Belgium, Sweden, Netherlands, etc but hardly operational in
developing countries. In Cameroon ofr instance, people only register when they want to
obtain birth certificates, identity cards at the ages of 18 years and in most cases, if people

4
 have not reached school going age or employment, they may not have a birth certificate and
in such cases they may even die without being registered. As such, it not an efficient method
of data collection in developing countries.
Generally, vital registration data tends to be more precise and accurate especially for births
and deaths than that of the census and sample surveys. However, the difficulty with the
continuous registration apart from the cost incurred is to ensure that migration into, out of
and within the country is sufficiently well covered. The sources of vital registration include;
health centres, divisional and sub divisional offices, councils (municipalities), electoral
registers, migration at frontier posts, airports and seaports.
4. Migration Records: This method provides a source of data for both internal and
international movements but their reliability is highly questionable. Internal movements for
instance are quite difficult to record given that movements are very arbitrary and with varied
reasons. It should be noted that in the past, data for internal movements came from analysis
of successive census enumeration after allowance has been made for natural increase. Today,
it is analysed directly from census results reasons being that censuses ask questions about
change of residence, place of birth which facilitate analysis. Generally, internal migration
data remain among the least accurate of all demographic data because enumerating migrants
is very difficult especially where they do not cross any significant administrative boundaries.
Statistics of international migrations are available for only a small minority of countries but
again very unreliable. These statistics are drawn from frontier control, port statistics, passport
statistics, work permit for aliens etc. however, and many international migrants still escape
enumeration especially where frontiers are long or poorly controlled. This makes it difficult
for accurate data to be obtained.

Lesson 2: Population Distribution

A. Meaning
Population distribution is the description of the manner in which people are spread on the earth
surface. It is therefore an attempt aimed at mapping and representing the visual spread of
population n umbers on the globe. However, there are many problems associated with the
concept. This is because preparation of its data suffers from much subjectivity. Thus in
considering areal representation of visual population data, (population distribution) great
importance is attached to population density as there is a very close link between them. It should

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be noted here that population density will be our main focus here while population distribution
will be examine in the following lesson.
B. Concept of population density.
1. Meaning:
Population density refers to the ratio between the population size and a given size area expressed
per Km2. That is to say it is an expression of the ratio between population size and a given unit of
land usually per square km. It can also be referred to as the measure of the number of people
living in a specific unit of land expressed per square km, or the degree of compaction or
proximity in a population ie the closeness of people living on a given surface and the spatial
balance of their social and economic assets. It is calculated using the following formula.
𝑇𝑃
PD = Where: TP= Total Population
𝑇𝐴

TA= Total land area.

It should be recalled here that not all places on the earth surface have the same densities. That is
there are places with high densities and high living standards (western Europe like Britain,
Germany,etc), regions with moderate densities but low living standards ( most Asian countries
like China, India, Indonesia, etc) and others with low densities and low living standards (Chad,
Burma, Brazil, New Guinea, etc). There are equally areas with low densities of below 25 persons
per km but with high living standards (Sweden, Norway, New Zealand etc).
2. Types and measurements of population densities.
a) Crude density: This is the commonest and widely used method. It is simply the direct
measurement of the total number of people living per unit area.
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑷𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
𝑪𝒓𝒖𝒅𝒆 𝑫𝒆𝒏𝒔𝒊𝒕𝒚 =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒍𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒂𝒓𝒆𝒂
From the crude density, the average population density can be calculated. Average population
density is thus expressed as the sum of the crude densities of various regions in relation to the
number of regions. It is calculated as:
∑𝑃𝑑
𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 = Where: ∑pd = Sum of population density of the regions
𝑛

n = number of regions
Significance of crude density
o It is a useful indicator of the concentration of people in specific areas

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o It is a useful index of comparison between areas. This is only possible where areas in
question are not too dissimilar in human and physical conditions.
o It is a useful index for periodic comparison. That is to compare changes in population density
at different periods of time.
Weaknesses of crude density
o It does not give any indication of living standards
o It can also be very misleading as a measure of population distribution since it shows that
population distribution is even.
o It makes no difference between the population distribution of rural and urban areas.
o It does not consider the resources available in an area or the characteristics of the population.
That is why it’s called crude density.
b) Man/Land-use Density: This view was discovered that people tended to congregate more in
some areas and leaving large areas sparsely inhabited and less used. Here, some
modifications were made to the numerator which could be either the total population,
agricultural or working population. The denominator on the other hand can be the inhabited,
rural, cultivable, or an area weighted according to its land use. The following measures are
used here;
i) Nutritional Density: It is also known as agricultural density. It is the ratio between the total
number of people engaged in agriculture in an area and the total cultivated areas and not the
total land area. It is calculated thus;
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑔𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
N.D =
𝐶𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎
This gives the number of agriculturalists per unit of cultivated land area or man/cultivated land
ratio. For example, if an area has 10.000 people engaged in agriculture and the total cultivated
land is 5000km2, then the agricultural or nutritional density would be;
10.000
𝑁. 𝐷. = = 2 agricultural workers per square km of cultivated land.
5000
From the index, when the value is low, it means there are few people on the cultivable land and
thus surplus land exists. But when the values are high, it indicates overcrowding on cultivable
land thereby indicating a situation of farmland shortage and hence high pressure on land.

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Such densities are generally higher in Economically Less Developed Countries than in
Economically More Developed Countries given that more people are engaged in agriculture in
the former than the latter.
Significance of Nutritional Densities.
 It usually gives a better indication of living standards.
 It can also indicate the magnitude of land shortage or availability.
 It can determine whether it is an intensive or extensive agricultural system being practiced.
Weaknesses of nutritional Density.
 It is difficult to determine the real size of cultivable land. This is because its definition is
relative and varies even within the same country.
 In some areas, cultivable and cultivated land is not distinguished.
 It is difficult to determine the real size of the population engaged in cultivation of land.
With such weaknesses, the index is best suitable in countries of small population sizes of
the agricultural population eg Britain with less than 5%.
ii) Physiological Density: This is the ratio between the total population and cultivable land
areas or land suitable for agricultural purposes. In other words, it is the number of people per
unit of cultivable land. It is calculated thus:
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑃ℎ𝑦𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 (𝑃𝐷) =
𝐶𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎
This gives the number of persons per square km of cultivable land. When the density is high, it
indicates that there is population pressure on the land. This index is index is very useful in
countries like Egypt where about 96% of the population lives on about 4% of the land area. This
requires that the land must be judiciously used since land not cultivated is not necessarily
unproductive.
iii) Comparative Density: This was advanced by Vincent, a French Geographer. It is a type of
physiological density which gives the ratio between the total population and land area
weighted according to its productivity. For instance 1 square km of cultivated land is equated
to 3 square km of grassland. It is expressed thus;
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎′ 𝑠𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦

8
Its main significance is that it indicates a country’s ability to be economically self-sufficient.
High values indicate that food imports are necessary while low values indicate that food could be
exported.
The major weakness of this index is that it can mislead a country to undertake a bad policy of
restricting food imports and encouraging only food exports.
iv) Population/Resource Density: This is the ratio between the population and the potential and
utilized resources of an area. Where the population exceeds the resources, it indicates a
situation of overpopulation, but if the population is too small, to utilize the resources, it
shows a situation of under-population. And where the resources can adequately sustain the
population leading to high living standards, it indicates an optimum population situation.
c) Occupational Density
This is a measure of a certain sector of a population over the total land area. That is the ratio
between particular sectors of the economy which employs the population and the total land area
of the country. For instance, number of industrial workers, teachers, doctors etc, over the total
land area. It may be calculated as follows:
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑟𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑠
𝑂. 𝐷. =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎
d) Room Density
It is the average number of people per room in a given urban area. The number of people per
room in urban areas is usually higher than in rural areas partly as a result of the housing
problems and high rents. This is a very important index in urban areas because crude density
makes no difference between urban and rural areas. It is equally very important in
areas/countries (e.g. England, Wales, and Scotland) where the people spend a considerable part
of their lives indoors. It is calculated as follows;
The total population of the given urban area divided by either
o The net area occupied by the dwelling lots and incidental services used or
o The gross area occupied by the dwelling lots and incidental services used (buildings, streets,
parks) or
o The total built-up area or
o The total urban area.
Significance of room density

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- It helps in the understanding of congestion in towns, housing conditions in urban areas and
overcrowding.
- It reflects changes in housing conditions over space (regional and rural-urban variations in
these conditions) and time.
- In Britain and Ireland, the values of room density are useful indices of not only housing
conditions but also occupational density.
Weaknesses of room density
- It is difficult to measure the actual surface area of storey buildings especially skyscrapters.
- It ignores sizes of rooms which greatly influence density. Large rooms reduce density while
small rooms increase it.
- It is only restricted to urban areas.
- It indicates nothing about the concentration of people within buildings or houses.
- It says very little on congestion especially where vertical expansion partially invalidates
man/land ratios.
Other measures of Density
They measure different aspects of the population and include;
 Protein or vitamin intake
 Income level or per capita income. This is calculated as;
𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑁𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
 Possession of luxuries goods (general index of consumption)
 Car density. An area with a high car density (number of motor vehicles per km 2 or per
person) is likely to be more developed than one whose car density is low.
 The Doctor/patient ratio. This is simply the number of patients per doctor. It is expressed as
follows;
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑜𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠
 Literacy rate (the teacher/pupil ratio). This is expressed as;
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑙 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑒𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑠
Graphical and Cartographical Techniques used to Represent and Map Population
Distribution and/or Population Density

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Maps or diagrams are generally employed to represent population distribution/density in visual
form. The kind of data and information available for any particular study will in part determine
the type of map or diagram which can be drawn. The techniques used in this domain include;
1. Population Density Lapse Rate
This shows the relationship between population density and distance as there exist a clear
relationship between population density and distance from the central point. Thus population
density lapse rate is techniques that show the decline in population density with increasing
distance away from a central point of concentration which may be an urban centre or the centre
of an industrial area. The rate at which population density declines with increase in distance from
the central point is known as Lapse Rate implying that the relationship between population
density and distance from the central point is inverse or takes the form of a negative exponential
relationship. The rate of decline varies from region to region and it is assumed to decline by a
factor of 10% for every kilometer from the central point.
The steepness of the curve indicates the rate of decline and the steeper the curve the faster the
decline and vice versa.

Population 50
density per
km2
40

30

20

10

0
5 10 15 20 25
Distance (km)

Figure: Population density curve

The above graph show that as distance increases away from 0 (central point), population density
declines eg at 5km density is about 43 persons per km2 while at 5km it falls to about 23 persons
per km2. This general tendency reveals that the concept of distance decay applies in population
density. But this smooth relationship does not apply in all cases as it is often distorted at road

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junctions, suburban shopping centres and industrial complexes as a direct relationship is
observed where density instead increases with distance.

Variations in Population Density Lapse Rates

Population density lapse rate varies between the developed and developing countries given their
differential levels of socio-economic development, also from one decade to another.

a) Developed Countries (Western cities)

The lapse rate here is more gradual and it is usually illustrated by a gently sloping curve. This
means that the densities between the cities and distance away to the rural areas are not too
different. This gentleness is attributed to the following;
 Long history of urbanization such that today most city centres are suffering from congestion,
pollution and expansion. This has caused an almost even spread of population from the
centre to the periphery.
 Government action in discouraging rapid growth within the city by urbanization.
 Urban redevelopment, creation of greenbelts, satellite dormitories and new towns to
decongest the cities.
Generally, population densities drop in the cities and gradually increase towards the
periphery because of the following:
 Improvement in social welfare facilities in rural areas (educational, medical, electricity etc)
 Urban problems like pollution, noise, high crime wave etc, encouraging out movement from
cities and increasing densities at periphery.
 Improvements in living standards in rural areas so that urban dwellers are attracted.
 People on retirement prefer to stay in calm and quiet rural areas. The graph below illustrates
this situation.

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 Population Present lapse rate
density per Probable future lapse rate
km2

0
Urban
centre Distance (km)

Figure: Population density lapse rate in a developed country

The graph shows a gentle slope with population density gradually decreasing in the urban centre
and increasing towards the periphery as illustrated by the arrows. The future trend shows
continuous increase away from the urban centre and decrease in the urban area as illustrated by
the downward and upward arrows.

b) Developing Countries (Non-western cities)

The lapse rate here is very steep showing that population density is higher in the cities and very
low in rural areas. A greater concentration of the population is found in the urban centre and
decreases rapidly with increase distance towards the periphery. The reasons for this are;

 Rapid urbanization leading to concentration of people in cities.

 Low or few technological improvements in rural areas
 Poor transport modes making it difficult for easy or faster movements.
 Greater enonomic development in urban areas leading to the creation of employment
opportunities in industries, transport, commercial activities etc, attracts many people from the
surrounding regions.
 Higher per capita income and living standards in urban areas compared with rural areas. This
can be illustrated in the following graph.

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 Population
density per Present lapse rate
km2
Probable future lapse rate

0
Urban
centre Distance (km)

Figure: Population density lapse rate curve in a developing country.

The graph shows that a concentration of population in the urban area and the future trend shows
that there would be just a little change i.e small outward movement to the periphery.
2. Measure of Population Concentration.
Geographers in general are naturally interested in the unevenness or concentration of population
both at a given point in time and as an evolutionary process. The degree of concentration is
greatest where population is agglomerated at one point and least where it is scattered or
dispersed. One of the methods used to measure the degree of concentration is the Lorenz curve.

The Lorenz Curve

It is a diagrammatical expression of the inequalities of distribution of either(people, food, wealth,
political power, personal contentment, medical care, industry and other such socio-economic
assets) in any society. In other words it is a graph showing the percentage of a phenomenon (may
be wealth, population, land area, output, etc) enjoyed by each household. It was originally
devised for measuring the concentration of income or wealth but today it used to measure the
degree of regularity or exact levels of distribution of both societal and spatial phenomenon.
Types of Lorenz Curve
a) Spatial type: This measures population, land use and the number of industries on land. It is
useful in population studies to show the spatial distribution of population over land area.
b) Societal type: It measures wealth, income, medical care, political power, food, etc in a given
society.

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How to construct the Lorenz curve
 The area is divided into units or census districts.
 The total population and the total land area of the study area are determined. i.e the
proportion of the total population living in each census district or unit and land area of each
unit are calculated and expressed as percentages of the total population and land area.
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑋 100
e.g 𝑋
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 1

the same is done for the land area.

 The census districts are then arranged starting from one with the smallest area to the biggest
and in each case, the corresponding population percentages written beside.
 The cumulative percentages of both land and population calculated must sum up to 100%
 Produce a cumulative graph with the Y-axis for cumulative percentage of land area and the
X-axis for cumulative percentage of population starting your numbering from 0-100 in each
case.
 After this, the cumulative values are then plotted and traced to produce the Lorenz curve.
Cumulative % of land area

100

80

60

40

20
45 concave
0
20 40 60 80 100
Cumulative % of population
Figure: concave and convex Lorenz curve.

From the graph above, it ca be observed that the actual trace line or concave curve is the Lorenz
curve. It illustrates unevenness or inequality in population distribution and demonstrates the real
or true situation of population distribution. It actually shows that some areas are densely
populated while others are sparsely populated. The curve can either be concave or convex and

15
the greater the concavity or convexity of the slope, the greater the inequality or unevenness of
population distribution.

Uses or significance or Lorenz Curve.

- It can be used to compare the degree of population concentration or densities of several areas
or countries.
- It is used to measure the degree of regularity or irregularity of distribution of phenomena in
space and time.
- The concentration curves of succeeding census can be compared.

Limitations of the Lorenz Curve.

- Data on income, political power, output, etc are only estimates.

- It is used only where an area can be divided into equivalent units (communes, parishes or
census districts)
- The available population data is hardly accurate for the period of time.
3. Areal Representation

Here, the representation of population distribution/densities is carried out in various ways such as
through choropleth maps, isopleths, etc. a common characteristics of this methods is that they
suffer from subjectivity in preparation and ambiguity since the maps may not be viewed or
evaluated in the same way intended by the computer. As a way to reduce this weakness, most of
these methods are combined. These techniques include:

a) Chorochromatic maps: This technique is used to map differences in population distribution

by simple shading or colouring. Various shades or colours depict different densities or
population concentration in an area. In order to avoid confusion, the densities are grouped
into classes and these classes are assigned shades or colours which may be darker or lighter
depending on the densities. Also variation in the closeness of the shades would indicate
differences in densities. Such maps are very easy to produce and are non-quantitative and
simply portray the presence or absence of a particular characteristic over a given area e.g
population distribution.

16
Advantages of chorochromatic maps

- They are easy to draw if thew density claseses are well defined.
- It is easy to compare differences in densities between various regions within the same
country.

Disadvantages or weaknesses

- Shading over vast areas may hide variation in densities

- Poorly designed classes of densities or shades may bring confusion and make interpretation
difficult.
b) Choropleth Maps: in depicting densities by choropleth method, areas of relatively
homogeneous densities are plotted with no regards to political divisions using various shades
or colours and as such, a detailed picture of the variations in density from one place to
another is given. This is a widely used method to show differences in population density and
it is an example of a quantitative map. They are constructed using the following guidelines.
This method can as well be used to the mapping of urban populations since variations in
population densities occur in towns.
- Firstly, the entire data set has to be broken into meaningful classes.
- Secondly, the resulting classes have to be related to the data collection areas.
- Thirdly, the classes have to be portrayed correctly in cartographic form by assigning each
class shades or colours which are lighter or darker.

17
Advantages of choropleth map

- They are easy to read or interprete since spatial densities are visually compared.
- They are easy to construct once the classes have been well set or grouped.
- It makes the determination of densely or sparsely populated areas to be identified with ease if
well constructed thus facilitates governement policy of population re-distribution.

Disadvantages or weaknesses

- It is difficult to determine a scale for choropleth maps.

- They hide concentration of population within each unit area as it portrays an even
distribution over vast areas.
- They portray abrupt changes in densities or sharp boundaries between areas of different
densities.
- A poorly designed system of shading or colouring can make very small spatial differences
appear very large or make very great differences appear small, thus making interpretation
difficult.
c) Isopleths: This tehnique is used to depict population distribution or density and
characteristics on a continental or global scale or even within a particular country. Isopleths
are lines connecting places of the same population size of a particular region expressed in
person per km2. Isopleths are therefore combined with choropleths to give them more
meaing.

18
 It should be noted that though choropleths have these weaknesses, they are better than
isopleths in representing population densities because population density is an areal value
and not a point value as indicated by the isopleth lines.

d) Dot Maps: This is a simplest form of symbol which appears to relate to a point of location.
On such maps, each dot is placed at the appropriate location or settlement and must be
equidistant as each dot reprpesents a certain number of people at that particular location.
Large dots depicts higher population numbers (500,000 to 1,000,000) and smaller ones
represent between (100,000 to 500,000). It should be noted that where there are man y
smaller dots in a particular area, each dot may represent 5000 to 10,000 inhabitants. The
greater the number of dots the higher the population density and the fewer the number of dots
the lower the population density.

Advantages of Dot maps.

- Population densities of various regions within the same country can easily be compared.

19
- They become very easy to construct when the value of the dot and the appropriate locations
have been determined.
- They are easy to interpret since by simply counting of dots, examining the sizes of the dots or
the clustering of the dots, the population situation can be deduced.

Drawbacks or Disadvantages of Dot maps.

- Choosing a scale which will be convenient and appropriate is difficult.

- It gives the impression that some areas are completely uninhabited. But in reality, these areas
inhabited but not have populations sufficiently large enough to warrant a dot.
- Difficulty of deciding where to locate the dots. That is, when they refer to specific point
locations, the difficulty arises if two or more of such dots have to be located at the same point
as it is difficult to know which of the dots really does represent a particular location.
e) Proportional Symbols (Circles and Squares): These are symbols widely used to represent the
spatial variation of population density and distribution especially the population of urban
centres. They are usually drawn in proportion to the number of inhabitants they represent
(their sizes depends on the population size of the area), and once the scale is determnined
though difficult, the circles or squares are then placed over specific areas or points where the
population occurs. This is however done after the map has been drawn. The larger the size of
the circle or square, the higher the population and vice versa. This technique is also used to
show ethnic and occupational structures of population and migrations.

Advantages of Proportional Symbols

- It makes it easy to compare the population of many areas in a country.

20
- It is easy to interpret as the sizes of the circles give the population size and makes it possible
to determine which areas are more populated or less populated.

Weaknesses or Disadvantages

- The circles often refer to points whose locations cannot be precisely determined.
- This method does not readily convey density of population.
- There is great difficulty in choosing a scale. This is because it entails the calculation of the
radius of the circle.
- The extreme range of population density to be found in many areas of a country/region often
leads to an overlap of the circles or squares and this makes(causes) a difficulty in the drawing
and interpretation of the map.
f) Divided Circles: They are also known as pie graphs. These circles vary in size according to
the respective totals of population under consideration. It should be noted that a circle is
made up of 3600. The larger the sector of the circle, the greater the population and vice versa.
In order to obtain the size of each sector, the formula below is used;
𝑆𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎(𝑒𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑏𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒) 360°
×
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑠(𝑒𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑏𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒)

NB: it is multiplied by 3600 because a circle is made up of 3600. For example, if a segment of the
circle represents 25% of the total population, it means it covers 25% of 3600

25
i.e 100 X 3600 = 900.

This implies that 900 of the circle is occupied by 25 of the total population, meaning that the rest
of the 2700 would be occupied by the remaining 75% of the population.

On the other hand if a segment of the circle is 1800, to get the percentage of the population that
occupies this sector, this would be calculated thus;

180
X 100 = 50%
100

This implies that half of the circle (1800) is occupied by half of the population (50%). This
technique is illustrated I the following diagram.

21
Advantages of Divided Circles

- Easy to interpret as the sizes of each sector of the circle depict the population number and
density.
- Given that the population is shown in a single circle of 3600 comparisons can easily be made.

Disadvantages or weaknesses

- It portrays clear cut boundaries, a situation which is rare in the real world.
g) Columnar Diagram: It is also known as the bar graph or histogram. They are also used in
the representation of population data or densities especially in depicting regional or national
variations. Bar graphs normally have two axis (the horizontal and vertical axis). Here, the
scale must carefully chose to avoid construction and interpretation difficulties and once the
data is collected and scale chosen, the information can then be presented diagrammatically
by drawing columns of appropriate lengths with towns or regions having highest densities or
population numbers represented first and then descends to towns with the lowest densities or
population numbers.

22
h) Population Potential: It is simply means the accessibility of people from a given point i.e a
measurement of how near people are to a point within a country. This measure assumes that
the influence an individual exerts is inversely proportional to distance from the central point.
This was suggested by Stewart in 1947 and then modified in 1960 by Warntz and Neft.
According to Stewart, population potential of a point refers to a measure of the nearness of
people to that point or as a measure of general accessibility or as a measure of influence of
people at a distance. It can be calculated using the following formula;
Population Potential =∑p/d
Where P=population at another point and
d=distance of that point from another
Example: The populations of 5 towns are shown and the method of calculation for the
potential at each place.
Settlement Population (P) Distance (d) p/d
A 200 - 200
B 400 5 80
C 600 10 60
D 100 2 50
E 400 4 100
∑p/d = 490
This can be represented as follows;

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Conclusion of the lesson

Statistical analyses have been devised to simplify complexities of population distribution. But
unlike linear distributions, areal distributions are less easy to analyse because of irregular sizes of
administrative units, mobility of population and variations in the physical environment. Looking
at the different methods, it would be realized that different methods results in both gain and loss.
The gain here is that it gives a different viewpoint of population distribution and a loss because
in it, there is the inevitable generalization of data. Despite this, they however remain necessary
when studying population distribution.

PRACTICAL WORK 1

TECHNIQUES OF MAPPING POPULATION DISTRIBUTION (DENSITY)

A) Illustrate various ways/methods of showing density and distribution on maps(dots,

choropleth or shadings)
B) Illustrate how the Lorenz curve issued to show uneven distribution.
NB: Must treat Lorenz curve and Population density lapse rates.
C) Assess these measures (advantages and disadvantages).

Lesson 3: Spatial Population Distribution

Introduction

The distribution of people on the globe reflects the configuration of land (about 29%) and water
(71%) on the earth’s surface. Estimates reveals that only 11% of the land surface represents no
serious limitation to settlement and agriculture while the bulk of the remaining 89% is either hot
deserts, cold deserts, high or steep sided mountains and forests. This variation in the
characteristics of the earth’s surface has influenced the manner of spread on the surface of the
earth making man to choose particular spots to live in and avoiding others.

Spatial distribution of population therefore describes the manner or way I which the population is
spread out across the earth’s surface or particular regions thereof. World population has been
very dynamic in time and space as it can be seen that by 1850 it was about 1098 million, rose to
2730 by 1950, 1980 – 4,432 million and by the year 2000 it was slightly above 6 billion. The
most conspicuous feature about the spatial world population distribution is its extreme

24
unevenness. This unevenness is demonstrated by the fact that a glance at the world map of
population distributions shows areas with very dense population, some sparsely populated, others
moderately populated and others uninhabited. This unevenness can be seen in the following
analysis.

A) Variations at different spatial scales

1) Distribution at continental Level: This illustrates unevenness with some continents densely
populated, others moderately and others sparsely populated. For instance the African
continent had an estimated population of 345 million in 1969 and in the year 2000, it rose to
about 871.8 million, recording a total percentage of about 12.7% of global population. The
Asian continent on the other hand had an estimated population of 1988 million and 3548.1
million in both 1969 and 2000 respectively contributing to more than half of mankind having
55.9% and 58.3% respectively of the world population. It should be noted here that Asia and
Europe accommodate over three-quarters (about 75%) of the world’s population. From this,
it is clear that the Old world (Europe and Asia) is far more populated than the New world
(Africa, the Americas and Oceania).it should be noted here that these figures and proportion
are constantly changing since population is very dynamic.
2) Distribution at National Level: Disparity here is seen between and within nations. Between
nations, it can be observed that there is a contrast between nations (China, India, Japan,
Pakistan, etc.) with over 100 million people and nations with less than a million
people(Gabon, Swaziland, Djibouti, Botswana, etc). Within the national territory, unevenness
is also exhibited wherein some regions are densely populated while others are sparse. For
example in Cameroon, a greater part of the population is concentrated in the coastal
lowlands. Also in Egypt, about 96% of the total population live only on about 4% of its land
area i.e. concentrated along the Nile valley.
3) Distribution at latitudinal level: Generally, population densities decrease with increase in
latitudes i.e. more than 90% of the world’s population inhabit the Northern Hemisphere
while less than 10% live in the Southern Hemisphere. Still within these hemispheres, there is
a disparity in population distribution. For example in the northern hemisphere, less than 1%
of the population live North of latitude 600, about 50% live between 200N and 400N while
about 85% live between latitude 200N and 680N. It should be noted here that this Northern
hemisphere also contains the four major concentrations of humanity (south and south East

25
 Asia, Europe, north eastern part of North America, and Coastal West Africa). In this area,
over 63% of the world’s population live on only 10% of the world’s land area. This
unevenness is due to the fact that this area contains the great deserts (sahara, Arabian) and
high mountain chains (Himalayas) of the world.
4) Altitudinal Distribution: Generally, population distribution with height shows a lapse rate.
That is the numbers and densities decrease with increase in altitude or height. On a global
scale, about 85% of the population lives in areas less than 500m high which is about 57% of
the land area. It should be noted that about 56.2% of the world’s population live between sea
level and 200m.
However, in tropical areas the situation slightly different as population densities in some
regions actually tend to increase with height up to a certain level before following the normal
pattern of lapsing with height.
5) Distribution with Distance from coast (sea): This is in line with the influence of insularity
(nearness to the sea) and continentality (distance from the sea). On a global scale, about 75%
(3/4) of the population live between the coast and 1000km inland, and 2/3 live between the
coast and 500km inland. It can therefore be concluded that a greater part of the world’s
population is concentrated along the coastal areas while inland, sparsely populated areas are
noticed. The main factors accountable for this disparity between the coast and inland areas
are differences in climatic conditions and commercial prospects.
6) Distribution at Regional scale: The unevenness at regional scale is very pronounced in the
continent of Asia where five countries (China, India, Japan, Pakistan, and Indonesia) have
half of the world’s population. This is a great contrast to the situation of West Africa which
has less than 10% of the world’s population but spreads across 15 countries.

Notion of Habitable and Non-habitable space

- Habitable (Ecumene) Areas or space: The term Ecumene refers to the inhabited portions or
regions of the earth. These inhabited areas are estimate to cover approximately 60% of the
earth’s land surface.
- Non-habitable (Ecumene) Areas or space: This refers to the uninhabited or intermittently
inhabited or very sparsely inhabited areas of the earth’s land surface. These areas include the
polar areas, hot deserts, dense forests, high mountain areas. They are estimated to cover
approximately 40% of the earth’s land surface.

26
The sparsely and Densely populated areas of the world.

- Densely populated areas: The very densely populated areas have high population densities
of above 50 persons per square km. the three primary concentrations that fall within this
domain include;
a) South-East Asia(China, India, Pakistan) with high growth rate having about 50% of the
population on less than 10% of the world’s total land area.
b) Europe: This region constitutes the world’s third largest population cluster concentrated
mainly in Western Europe. It accommodates about 11% of the world population on less than
5% of the total land area. It however has a low growth rate.
c) North East America: This area accommodates about 4% of world population with low
growth rates.

It should be noted here that these three primary areas of concentration contain close to 70% of
the world’s population and beside them there are secondary concentrations of dense population
existing in pockets along the coasts of Africa (north and south), south America(east brazil and
some lowlands), and Oceania(Philippines, New Zealand etc). These zones constitute about 25%
of the world’s surface area. Tertiary population concentrations appear as “knots” as is the case of
the clusters of the high basin of Mexico or as “string” like along the Nile Valley and California.

- Moderately populated or intermediate areas: They have moderate densities ranging

between 10 and 50 person per square km. These areas include the interiors of Africa, south
America and Asia. Within this group, Africa has high growth rate while south America and
Asia have lower growth rates.
- Sparsely populated areas: These are areas with low population densities below 10 persons
per square km. these include mostly hot deserts, high mountains, the tundra region(Northern
Canada, Northern Russia, Iceland, Greenland and the Scandinavia), the tropical rainforest of
the amazon and equatorial Africa. All these areas put together accommodates just 25% of the
world’s population. It is worth noting here that areas of sparse population surpass those of
high population density.
B) Factors of Population Distribution

In looking for a plausible explanation to the unevenness or disparity that characterize the spatial
distribution of world population, we cannot subscribe to the purely deterministic viewpoint that

27
natural elements(factors) are the only controlling factors of population distribution as many
social, economic, political, demographic and historical factors play a vital role in population
distribution. This is as seen below.

1) Physical Factors
a) Climate: Generally, the manner in which humans are spread across the surface of the earth is
greatly influenced by the prevailing climatic conditions across the globe. This is seen in the
sense that extreme climatic conditions (too cold, hot and wet or hot and dry) repel human
habitation while conducive climatic conditions favour habitation. For example, the cold lands
(high latitudes 600-900) north and south of the equator are noted for their extreme (too cold)
conditions with frozen surfaces, low temperatures below freezing point, etc which all reterd
plant growth thus repelling human habitation. The hot dry regions on their part (150-350)
north and south of the equator exhibits aspects of repulsion though found within the tropics.
This is because these areas constitutes the main hot deserts(Sahara, Arabian, etc) deserts of
the world noted for their very high temperatures(350), low rainfall(250mm), making it
difficult for humans to carry out their activities smoothly.
On the other hand, areas with favorable climatic conditions like the low and middle latitudes
(00-300 and 300-600) or the hot-wet lands of the world, north and south of the equator are
noted for their high population concentration due to their favorable climatic conditions such
as high temperatures throughout the year (270), high relative humidity and abundant
sunshine, etc which supports plant growth and human settlement. It should however be noted
that there are areas within these hot-wet lands where we have low population densities like
the rainforest zones(Amazon and Congo basin, pacific islands), the presence of pest,
mosquitos have rendered these areas almost uninhabitable. But modern techniques have
permitted man to survive in these areas despite the extremes of climatic conditions.
b) Relief: With relief, population numbers and densities generally decrease with increase
altitude (height). About 85% of the world population live in areas less than 500m signifying
that high rugged mountains with steep slopes(Rockies, Andes, etc) repel population due to
the negative environmental conditions(cold weather conditions, barrenness of the soil, steep
slopes, etc) all repel human habitation especially in the middle and high latitudes. This is
because not all high altitude or mountainous areas are sparsely populated (e.g the Ethiopian
highlands, the western highlands of Cameroon, etc). In this case, latitude is of great

28
 importance as it is asserted that the influence of mountainous areas or altitude on population
distribution depends on their latitudes. Still in highland areas, Aspect is another important
element of relief which exerts its influence on population distribution as insolation falls
unevenly on both slopes. Hence sun facing slopes (Adret) tend to have higher population
concentration than the sun shaded slopes (Ubac). This equally explains why south facing
slopes I the northern hemisphere are more populated than the north facing slopes.
In contrast to high altitude, low altitudes areas(lowlands) are generally attractive to human
habitation because they provide better environmental conditions such as fertile soils, well
drained land, contains a lot of natural resources, etc which all attracts human habitation.
However, there are exceptions to the general rule that lowlands are populated than
mountainous areas as there are some lowland areas with very sparse population densities e.g
the Amazon and congo basins.
c) Soil: Throughout history, different soils have exerted different degrees of influence on
population concentration. The general notion about soils and population concentration is that
regions of the world with fertile soils such as the chernozems of the steppes, prairies and
other grasslands, the volcanic soils of Ethiopian highlands and fertile alluvial soils found
along river valleys and plains(Ganges, Indu, Nile valley, coastal plains of Cameroon), have
all set the basis for large population concentration in these areas, though there exist minor
exceptions within these zones where there are patches of sparse population
densities/concentrations.
On the other hand, infertile soils of the world which might have resulted from excess erosion
or heavy leaching, are often associated with sparse population as they are unsuitable and
cannot support any meaningful agricultural activity. Examples of such soils are the podzols
of the cold continental temperate lands and the laterites of the humid tropics. However, the
attractiveness of soils also depends on man’s agricultural interest and techniques as infertile
soils I many areas have been made attractive with the use of chemical fertilizers thus
attracting population.
d) Drainage: drainage attracts and repels human habitation depending on the nature of drainage
in the area. In the former, it attracts population mostly areas where there is water scarcity(e.g
the sahel/desert regions), case of the Nile in Egypt which is known to cater for about 95% of
the entire population of Egypt for various uses like HEP generation, domestic use, fishing,
etc.

29
 On the other hand, rivers and lakes may also repel population concentration as their courses
may be infested with pest and disease vectors such as mosquitos which causes malaria, black
fly which causes river blindness. Some rivers may be too liable to floods or too deeply
incised as to form gorges or ravines. While others maybe too torrential, narrow or wide. The
case of Ghana where river blindness (Onchocersiasis) has helped repel people from settling
along the valleys of rivers Volta and Tano.
e) Biotic Factor: Population distribution responds to varying distribution of plants and animals.
That different vegetation types like selvas, savannah, taiga and steppes influence different
human occupation and concentration. The role of this vegetation also varies greatly
depending on the climate and soil conditions. Hence dense forest regions (tropical rainforest
areas of Amazon and Congo basins, the northern forest lands of Northern Canada and
Northern Eurasia) are generally sparsely populated because of the difficulties presented by
this forest.
On the other hand, the tropical and temperate grassland areas (savannah regions, the prairies,
steppes) offer better conditions for human habitation. This is because they offer god
opportunities for agricultural activities (fertile soils) while some possess precious minerals
and accessibility is relatively easier as roads construction is easier. Thus human settlement
and other activities can easily be carried out.
f) Mineral and Energy resources: Mineral and energy resources exercise a powerful influence
upon population distribution especially where there is the technical know-how and social
organization to prospect and exploit them. The presence of minerals like iron ore, coper,
bauxite, coal, etc has both in the past and present encouraged human activities in areas where
they are found. For example, coal has attracted large population concentration because it has
exerted a much greater stimulus to industrial location especially in the past as it was the only
available source of energy leading to the development of settlements like the Rand of South
Africa, Ruhr Westphalia in Germany, etc. It should however be noted that the influence of
coal has dropped today due to the development of new energy sources like HEP, nuclear
power, etc. therefore, mineral and energy resources vary in their ability to attract population
concentration depending on their quality, quantity, value to industrial production, etc.
generally in areas where mineral are absent, there is hardly any population concentration and
densities are low. This is the case of Paraguay in South America.

30
2) Human Factors: Economic activities such as agriculture, industrial activities, commercial
activities, transport exert a great influence on the distribution of the world’s population as the
type and scale of these activities exercise enormous control on the spatial distribution of
population as dense population corresponds to areas of advanced economic activities while in
areas of backward economic activities, population distribution is sparse. Agriculture for
example influence population in the sense that areas with intensive subsistence and
commercial systems (eg, the Ganges valley, Western highlands of Cameroon etc) have high
densities while areas with extensive subsistence (eg, Amazon and Congo basins areas, part of
Malaysia etc) have sparse or low population densities.
3) Historical factors: It is evident that past population distribution influence present and will
probably influence future distributions as in examining the age of settlement in any area has
often been loosely concluded that “regions of ancient civilization are usually areas of high
population densities”. This implies that regions of the world that have old civilization (eg, the
Nile and delta in Egypt, Far north region of Cameroon, China and India, etc) tend to have
high concentration of people. This is because of early human history (population inertia) that
has attracted many people over the years, sustained births and advanced levels of
development.
On the other hand, relatively recent settlements tend to have low population densities. This is
the case of the new world areas as Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, etc which is due
to the harsh climatic and poor soil conditions
4) Social factors: Here we are basically referring to the effects of various disasters (both natural
and man-made) and religious influence. Disasters for example usually cause short-term
adjustments and redistribution of population. This is because they happen suddenly and so
surviving population move out (out migration or emigration e.g Lake Nyos disaster of 1986,
cyclones in Eastern Europe and Caribbean’s, etc).
On the other hand, social disaster (man-made) tend to produce greater and more long lasting
consequences for example the trans-Atlantic slave trade left most of Africa sparsely
populated, the operation Zionist that took jews all over the world back to Palestine, etc
5) Government policy: Government policy has also influenced the distributional pattern of
population and it has contributed to the settlement and re-settlement of population in certain
parts of countries. This is evident through the creation of facilities and economic structures
especially in depressed areas so as to enable population over spill to resettle and thereby

31
 relieve many large cities from the problems of congestion and overcrowding. Government
has also created residential quarters at the outskirts of major cities (dormitory towns), new
towns, and encouraged industrial development in depressed areas.
On the contrary, regions which have been neglected by the government with little or no
investments are often sparsely populated. This is the case of the interior of Brazil and the
south eastern part of Cameroon.
Conclusion
To effectively discuss the spatial distribution of world population, two sets of factors
(physical and human) must be considered not in isolation but as inter-related influences on
population distribution. The significance of these elements varies in time and space since
population distribution is a dynamic process and the effects of human factors are so strong
today that we cannot subscribe to the purely deterministic viewpoint which holds that natural
elements are the controlling factors of population distribution.

TOPIC: POPULATION STRUCTURE/COMPOSITION

Lesson 5: Population Structure
A) Meaning of population composition/structure
Population composition or structure refers to those aspects of population which may be
measured and for which data are usually obtained either from censuses or vital migration.
These aspects include; Age, Sex, marital status, economic composition, size and composition
of families and households, nationality, language, religion and ethnic composition. These
aspects are sometimes termed the quantitative aspects of population studies which contrast
with the qualitative aspects like physical and psychological characteristics, social and cultural
groupings.
B) The various components.
1. Demographic: This examines all the age-sex composition of a population at a given time
period. That is the different age groups (infants and adolescents, adults and the aged/old) in a
population and the number of males and females or the proportion of males or females as a
decimal (sex composition). A detail of these components will be seen in the subsequent
lessons.
2. Socio-political: These are aspects of the population which can be identified when
populations are divided into superficial and personal attributes. That is to say they are the

32
 acquired (individual) aspects of the population and are grouped into language, religion,
nationality, culture, marital status, political affiliation, living conditions and even alliance to
team sports. Here, we are going to dwell on marital status, religion and language for social
characteristics and nationality for the political.
a) Marital status: This refers to the proportion of persons who are either single, married,
widowed or divorced in a given population. It is one of the important aspects of population
structure which should be taken into consideration when discussing population growth of a
country and more emphasis is laid on; single population (the proportion of people who have
never been married before and are still not married), marriage (a legal union between two
persons of the opposite sex as husband and wife established by civil, religious or traditional
means. Marriage can either be monogamy or polygamy), widowhood (the state of a single
person existing in a population because of death of a partner), and divorce (which is the
legal separation of once married couple). Factors influencing marital status include: age
structure, sex ratio, economic condition, literacy level
b) Religion: Religion may be referred to as an attempt to explain the nature and mystery of
life. Zelinsky noted that amongst the numerous definitions of religion, we must include; “a
mental complex, a highly diversified body of customs, a formal institution i.e church or
denomination and a group of persons sharing some degree of religious identity by virtue of
tradition or common observance”. Most religions involve procedure of faith and worship,
normally of a God and usually encompass secret observances and codes of behavior. The
most dominant religious groups in the world today include; Christianity (common in
Europe, America, Africa and other regions of European settlement), Islam (over Arabia,
northern Africa and western Asia), Buddhism (in central Asia), Hinduism, Bahai, Judaism,
Shinto and Confucianism.
c) Language: The term is rather ambiguous, as a lack of uniform classification languages has
impeded the comparison of linguistic data between different countries. The languages of the
world are extremely diverse. Today, they number about 2800 and often numerous dialects.
Many languages belong to the same stock or family and also, have a common decent. Some
include the Indo-European, Sematic, Dravidian and Malayo-Polynesian. These vast
divisions of this family of languages are symptomatic of the rapid evolution and
diversification of language e.g many changes in languages are due to invention and many
are due to changing modes of life. Languages are closely related to the environment, race,

33
 culture and history. These factors are however not constant this is because human migration,
intermixture and natural changes have made the world patterns of languages to continually
change.
d) Nationality: The term “nation” is often used geographically to denote a group of people
who are conscious of their own nationality i.e a people with common sentiment, tradition,
territory who wish to maintain their cultural unity free from political domination. It is a
concept that reflects the natural political status of the country to which a person belongs in a
legal sense, it refers to a country of citizenship. This can be achieved true birth and through
nationalization.
3. Economic Composition: The economic composition of the population being a non-
demographic aspect of population, can be identified when people are divided according to
attributes of living standards that is to aspects of achieved status characteristics. Population
can therefore be grouped by occupations and employment and also by such livelihood criteria
as wealth, income, working hours and spending decisions. Under this aspect, more attention
would be focused on the active population, its industrial and occupational structure and
socio-economic composition.
a) Active population: In it strict and official sense, active population comprises of all those
who are engaged in remunerative occupations (earn pay as wages or salaries) such as in
primary, secondary, tertiary or quaternary activities and who seek a livelihood in such
occupations. The size of the working population varies widely and is affected by both
demographic and socio-economic and political factors. The working or active population is
also fairly closely related to the size of the total population and the age structure. That is to
say, in young rapidly growing populations of developing countries, the active population
tends to be small and there is “heavy youth dependency” because of the high proportion of
children and mainly boys and old men play a great role in the economy of such countries. On
the other hand, advanced ageing at the apex and the base creates a state of “heavy old-age
dependency”.
b) Occupational structure: The occupation of an individual refers to his/her trade, profession,
or type of work and can be classified under primary, secondary, tertiary and quaternary
activities. This structure is also determined by socio-economic factors and changes with
socio-economic progress in the society. There is therefore a variation between developed
countries with advanced economies and developing countries with backward economies. In

34
 developing countries(Cameroon, Brazil etc), the proportion of people involved in the primary
sector (agriculture, mining, hunting etc) is very high (about70%) while in the developed
countries (USA, Britain, etc) this proportion is low (less than 5%.
c) Industrial composition: The industrial classification of the active population refers to
branches of activities and it is based on the type of establishment, product made or service
rendered. However, the list of industries is very long and there are complications in their
classification these complications are compounded as a result of the diversity of
establishments within any industry and the rapid birth and growth of industries. For easy
understanding of the industrial composition, it is analysed in three main groups i.e primary
activities (agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting), secondary activities (manufacturing,
production of electrical power and gas and construction), tertiary activities (commerce,
transportation, communication and services of all kinds), quaternary activities (includes
education and training services).

Lesson 6: Age and Sex composition

A) Meaning: Age structure of composition refers to the proportion of people contained within
the various age groups. The age structure varies from one country to another and also within
countries. It is influenced by variables or parameters such as mortality, fertility and
migration, which are highly interrelated. Here, the population of every given country is
divided into three main groups i.e infants and adolescent (young or youthful), Adults and the
Aged or old.
Sex composition or structure on the other hand refers to the number of males and females
in the total population of a country. In other words, it is an expression of male/female
proportions in a total population. It can be expressed in a number of ways such as;
- The number of males per 100 or 1000 females or vice versa or males or females as a
percentage of the total population.
- As a proportion males or females as a decimal of unity (where males and females are equal).
B) World patterns of Age and Sex composition.
Looking at the age structure of the world population, it can be noticed that the percentage of
population found in each age group varies with different countries and with regions. In the case
of the developing countries for example, the population is mostly dominated by the young or
youthful (young and adolescents 0-19years) constituting about 40% of the total population. This

35
is typical of the Asian, Latin America and African countries where birth rates and mortality rates
are high and as a result of this high mortality rate, very few people attain old age (beyond
65years). On the other hand, the More Economically Developed Countries tend to experience the
direct opposite of a growing population i.e they are faced with an ageing population which in
recent years has been on an increase. An ageing or aged population is a population dominated by
old people (beyond 65 years) constituting about 15% of the total population. This is typical in
countries such as USA, New Zealand, Australia, etc. People in these countries live longer
because of decreased mortality which as a result of improved medical facilities, good diet and
sanitary conditions.
Like age composition, the sex ratio varies from country to country but the degree of disparity is
not as great as the former. Generally speaking from a world view, females are more than males
except in countries in countries where factors like wars and migration have distorted the pattern.
In most developed countries like Britain, there are more females than males (106 females per 100
males). Same with Japan and Indonesia where the number of females slightly outnumber males.
The situation is not different in developing countries as females are more than males. In
Cameroon for example, (987 census), females constituted 51% while males 49% of the total
population. However, there are some few disparities where males outnumber females like in
China, India, and Pakistan. Within country levels, disparities occur in areas like military and
mining areas where men outnumber women. While in tourist resorts, women outnumber men due
to the nature of opportunities available there.
Factors Explaining Differential Sex-composition.
1. Preponderance (Excess) of male births but higher pre-natal deaths: Generally, male
births usually exceed female births in most societies. The excess is even greater at
conception although towards the later ages, women tend to outnumber men. A world trend
show that the average sex ratio at birth is about 105males: 100 females. The causes of this
trend are not certain but generally accepted that it is a biological phenomenon. Social factors
may also help explain it as in some societies, the desire for male children influences sex
ratios. This leads to discriminatory or selective abortion and female infanticide (e.g in China
the one-child policy). Despite these excess of males over females at birth, the trend does not
continue for a long time. The number of males is greatly reduced as time goes by. This is
due to the fact that they suffer from a higher pre-natal mortality.

36
2. Mortality differences of the sexes: Disparity exist between sexes in the three age groups.
Statistics show that in all these age groups, male mortality is higher than that females. i.e at
childhood, the mortality rate for males is about 10 to 20% especially in developing countries
but lower in developed countries. At the middle age group (between 30-44 years), the
situation is almost balanced. However, great disparity sets in again at the old age group
(above the age of 60). This disparity can be explained by a combination of both biological,
environmental and socio-economic reasons. Biologically, men are a weaker sex since they
contract a greater number of diseases than women. Nature of jobs, marital ages, effects of
war, road accidents, is some the reasons why mean die earlier than women. In some
countries like in South East Asia and parts of Africa, female deaths however exceed those of
males. This is because of low status of women, the frequent occurrence of deaths during
delivery, and their involvement in heavy work since they have high socio-economic burden.
3. Effects of migration: The imbalance in the sex ratio, characterizes many countries can also
be explained by sex-selective effects of migration. Generally, men are more mobile than
women especially in the adult age groups. As such, areas experiencing net immigration are
likely to have more males than females. This was the case during the trans-oceanic
migrations in the 19th and 20th centuries with great immigrant countries like the USA,
Canada, etc received more males than females. On the other hand, areas experiencing net
emigration will tend to have more females than males.
Importance of sex ratio
- It influences the marriage type (polygamy where the imbalance is great, and monogamy
where it is fairly balanced)
- It influences the rate of fertility and mortality.
- Determines the role of women in the society. In areas where men dominate, women take
some risky activities as they are few e.g Israel, Libya, etc.
- For social effects, where women dominate, prostitution is common than where fairly
balanced. Crimes as rape may be common where men dominate.
C) Youthful or Expanding Population: This is a situation in a country where the youths form a
bulk of the population (constituting over 40%) while the aged form only a smaller proportion
(less than 5%) of the entire population. The former is composed of those who fall between 0-
19years i.e it is subdivided into infants (0-12 years) and adolescents (13-19 years).
Economically, this group is grossly non-productive and biologically non-reproductive or

37
 marginally reproductive. It is generally considered a dependent age group because it
contributes little or nothing to the socio-economic development of the country as most are
school children. This is associated with the developing countries of Asia, Latin America,
Africa where birth rate and mortality are high. However, the introduction of medical facilities
has reduced mortality rate leading to an increase in this age group. This type of population is
associated with the following consequences.
- Large population growth in the feature as young people grow up to childbearing ages.
- High rate of unemployment as the rate of population growth is not accompanied by economic
development.
- High dependency ratio is an important characteristic of such populations. This is because the
number of people dependent on the active or working population is very high and this may
result in low living standards.
- Low per capita income leading to low standards of living.
- High government expenditure on the provision of services needed by the young especially
educational and health services. This may provoke over taxing of the working population so
as to raise government revenue.
- There would be a growing burden on the country’s agricultural or food supply systems.
The government of any country experiencing a youthful population has however taken
measures aimed at reducing the negative consequences of such populations as follows:
- Encourage out migration or immigration.
- Intensification of agriculture with the use of a lot of farm inputs.
- Creation of industries to provide employment avenues.
- Rural resettlement and development schemes.
- Measure to introduce birth control programmes in an attempt to stabilize population
numbers. The implementation of these measures in countries like China, India, Pakistan,
Brazil, etc.
- Creation of more schools and hospitals.
D) Ageing or Greying Population: An ageing population is that in which there is an increasing
number of the aged and a decreasing number of the young. In other words, it is a population
with a large population of aged persons and a smaller proportion of young persons. This is
mostly associated with the economically and demographically advanced countries such as
Japan, USA, Germany, Belgium, etc. Such countries have attained the fourth stage of the

38
 demographic transition model with low birth and death rates. The number of people above
65-70 years in these countries continues to increase, thus high life expectancy.
Reasons for an Ageing Population.
- Improvement in medical facilities
- Better nutrition/diet.
- High level of economic development
- Improved sanitary or environmental conditions.
- Desire to maintain high standards of living, thus few children.
- Better catering facilities especially in old homes created by government and therefore leading
to high life expectancy.
Consequences of an Ageing population
a) Demographic consequences
Positive
- Rise in life expectancy given the many old people. This is mainly because of the
improvement in medical facilities which have greatly reduced mortality and increased the
number of years an individual lives from birth.
- Greater migration from urban areas to retirement villages (or rural areas)
Negative
- An increase in the proportion of old people in the population increases the mortality rate. The
older a person is, the greater likelihood of the person dying.
- Very small growth rate or natural increase mainly because of the low fertility and to an extent
increase in mortality rate of the aged.
- Increase in dependency ratio as dependence is contributed more by the old people.
b) Social consequences
Positive
- Increase in retirement age. This is because of the labour shortage in such a population as a
result of the few young people to take over the various jobs. This therefore necessitates a
prolongation in the number of years of the working population resulting in an increase in the
retirement age.
- A drop in mortality and fertility keeps population low. Thus, the slow rate of population
growth is advantageous in that it avoids all the defects of a youthful or expanding population.

39
 Negative
- There will be a drop in the number of school children mainly because of the drastic decrease
in birth rate (baby dust). This may explain the reason for the low average number of children
per class in developed countries compared to the situation in schools in developing countries.
- Increase in social insecurity burden. In most countries where ageing population is
experienced, the government provides facilities like health care, pension, education, free
accommodation, unemployment benefits, etc. This social security burden continues to grow
as more people become dependent rather than producers.
- Little or underutilization of social amenities like schools, entertainment spots, etc given the
few youths.
- A rise in the dependency ratio threatens living standards. This is because there is a possible
reduction in output per head (income per capita).
- Possible inflow of immigrants from different countries
- Retirement villages become growth points in social infrastructure as the number of the aged
and the retired grow each day.
c) Economic consequences
Positive
- There would be greater technological development in the production of industrial and
agricultural products. These automatic systems are compensated for shortages in able men.
- There is an increase in the demand for goods needed by old people such as walking sticks,
hat, blankets, pipes and wheel chairs.
- There is a low labour mobility since geographical and occupational mobility of youths and
young adults is limited. This is however advantageous because there is stability in economic
life.
- Retirement villages become growth poles in development of industries producing products
for the aged, small trading centres, other socio-economic facilities develop.
Negative
- Increase in pension bills given that there are many old people who are on retirement despite
the fact that some developed countries like Germany have increased the retirement age of
workers.

40
- There will be a shortage in labour force especially for technical and labour intensive jobs
because of birth control reducing the number of youths who would grow up to adult or
working age group.
- Manufacturers of baby good and foods will face a severe slump and most may go out of
production while manufacturers of products needed by the old will face a boom.
- Consumption pattern also changes with ageing in terms of food, industrial goods, medical
and housing requirements.

Lesson 7: Concept of Age-Sex Pyramid or Population Pyramid

A) Meaning and types
A population pyramid is a frequency distribution histogram of the population a specific area or
country set on a vertical axis showing the various age groups and a horizontal axis which depicts
the absolute numbers or percentages of the two sexes (male and female), with males represented
on the left and females on the right. In other words, it is a graphical technique used to show the
age and the sex structure of a population with a vertical axis representing the age groups and a
horizontal axis depicting the percentage or number of the two sexes with males on the left and
females on the right.
Types of Age-Sex Pyramids
1. Progressive or Expansive Pyramids: This pyramid is characterized by a broad (expanding)
base, concave sides and narrows towards the apex. In this pyramid, both birth and death rates
are high although death rate is declining. children form a very large number (45 -50%) of the
total population while the old or aged forms a small proportion (4-10%). This is the case of
most developing countries of Africa, Latin America, Asia, excluding Japan and CIS.

41
2. Regressive or Contractive (Constrictive) Pyramids: This pyramid is characterized by a
narrow base, a central section that bulges out with convex sides and a wider apex. This gives
it a “bell” or “beehive” shape. Here, both birth and death rates are low and declining.
Children form a very small proportion (about 30%) of the total population while the aged
accounts for above 15%. This type of pyramids are common in most developed countries
especially those of Western Europe (Germany, France, Britain, etc.), USA, Canada and
Japan. The narrow base showing the existence of few children is mainly because of low birth
rate as a result of stiff birth control. The bulging of the middle section indicates the presence
of many adults and the wide apex depicts large number of the aged. This is as a result of high
living standards, high quality diet, etc.

3. Stationary or Static Pyramids: It has a roughly equal number of people in all age groups
characterized by a narrow base, convex sides and a wider top. These are not as pronounced as
in the regressive pyramid. Here the population has an unchanging low fertility and mortality.
Children account for about 35-40% of the total population and the aged account for about
10%. The low or declining fertility is due to birth control measures while the low mortality is
as a result of better medical facilities, good diet and sanitary conditions. There is therefore a
relatively longer life expectancy, low dependency ratio and slow and stable or constant
population growth. This is common in most developed countries especially in major cities.

42
4. Intermediate or composite pyramids: This pyramid has characteristics of progressive and
regressive pyramids. This is common in countries that are undergoing some demographic
evolution or passing through stages of development. Here, the implementation of birth
control measures helps to reduce fertility while improvements in medical technology reduces
the high death rate and increase the number reaching middle and old age groups. Examples of
countries experiencing this type include: Argentina, China, Cuba, and Mexico.

B) Factors Influencing the shapes of Age-Sex Pyramids.

i. Demographic factors
1. Fertility and Mortality: These are important demographic factors which affect population
pyramids as any change in them affects the population growth and thus cause a change in the
age-sex pyramid. For example, in case where birth and death rate are declining as a result of
birth and death control, there will be a slow population growth. This often takes place over a

43
 long time and would lead to an increasing proportion of the aged a declining proportion of
children that is an ageing population. This will give rise to a pyramid with a wide apex
showing a higher proportion of the older age group due to good medical facilities and narrow
base showing less number of children. The reverse is true for a case where birth rate remains
high and death rate is declining as in many economically developing countries.
2. Migration: Migration is sex selective especially over long distances where only the male
adults are mostly concerned. In countries where there is the large influx of this age/sex
group, it will immediately cause a bulge on the male side of the population pyramid at the
middle in the short run. For example during the trans-oceanic migrations of the 19th and early
20th centuries, the USA, Canada experienced this. On the other hand, the areas which have
experienced the massive out migration suffer drastic reduction in their young adults males.
This produces an indentation on the male segment of the pyramid indicating a loss in this age
group. This was the experienced in most African countries during the trans-Atlantic slave
trade.
ii. Non-Demographic Factors.
1. Marital behavior: It varies from region to region and this affects the nature of population
pyramids. For example in countries where the tradition of early and polygamous marriages is
strong as in many developing countries of Africa, Asia, this will lead to rapid population
growth due to high birth rate. This also applies in countries where a high proportion of
married people exist. All this will lead to a youthful population producing broad based
population pyramids. On the other hand, countries where monogamous and late marriages
dominate as in developed countries, fertility or birth rate is lower and reduces growth rate.
This produces narrow base pyramids as in regressive pyramids.
2. War: When breaks out in any region, the short-term effect would be the death of people
affecting all age and sex groups. There is however some sex selectiveness in the deaths as the
most affected are the adult males. This is because those involved in fighting wars are
dominantly the adult males who make up the bulk of the armed forces. This generally leads
to shrinking of the population pyramids and serious indentations on the adult male segment
of such pyramids.
3. Famine: It results from drought or crop failure which may affect the sizes and shapes of
population pyramids as it may either lead to an increase in the number of deaths especially
when it persist for a long time or triggers off out migration (emigration). The effects of

44
 famine are however age selective. That is to say, the immediate effects children and aged
(old people) die first. This is because they are less resistant to hunger as compared to the
adults thus more vulnerable. This therefore reduces the proportion of these age groups and
may narrow the base and apex of the sex-age pyramid while leaving the adult section
unchanged.
4. Population policies: Population policies varies from country to country and affects
population pyramids differently. Governments of some countries especially developing
countries have instituted policies such as prohibition of birth control, non-legalization of
abortion, giving of family allowances and marriage loans. All this has resulted to rapid
population growth giving rise to a broad base pyramid. This is evident to most African, Latin
America and Asian countries. On the other hand, population policies in developed countries
are anti-natalistic i.e these are policies aimed at reducing birth rate and limiting population
growth. Countries practicing this include; USA, Canada, Japan, Germany, etc. The
implementation of these measures has led to narrowing of the base of their population
pyramids (regressive pyramids).
5. Improved medical services: This implies the availability of good medical equipment, drugs,
better vaccination programmes, etc. this affects the mortality and fertility rate. The
immediate or short-run effect would be a drastic reduction in death rate. In developing
countries, this would greatly increase the number of surviving children and would result in
broad base pyramids (progressive pyramids). On the other hand, a reduction in infant
mortality especially I developed countries greatly reduces the need for a lot of children. This
may lead to a fall in birth rate and produces narrow base pyramids. In the long run. Such
improvement in medical services will lead to higher life expectancy at birth resulting in a
greater and increasing proportion of the population reaching old age, producing narrow base
and broad top pyramids (regressive pyramids).
6. Economic depression: In the short-run, there would be a drop in the volume or size of the
population pyramid. This is because the resultant unemployment provokes massive out
migration of those in the working age group thus population pyramid would have a
constriction at the middle and it would be more pronounced at the male section given that
males are more migratory. In the long run, a baby dust may occur. This is because the
continuous outflow of young adults would reduce the birth rates.

45
7. Natural disasters (Environmental Hazards): Natural disasters like earthquakes/Tsunamis,
volcanic eruptions, floods and unexpected droughts often cause the death and out migration
of many people affecting all age and sex groups. This often reduces the size of the population
pyramids on both sides given that the whole population is affected.
8. Epidemics: These are large scale diseases that have rapid spread e.g cholera, measles,
meningitis, flu, HIV/AIDS etc. They have short and long term effects on population
pyramids of many countries especially those in the developing world where medical facilities
are still poor. The effects of diseases like cholera, measles, meningitis, are generally age
selective as they are more pronounced in infants leading to high infant mortality thereby
causing the base of the age-sex pyramids of such regions to be narrow.
C) Indices of Population Structure.
1. Dependency Ratio.
This is the ratio of the young (children) and the aged (the non-active) to the working (active or
adult group. In other words, it is the proportion or ratio of people in the population who
contribute little or nothing to the socio-economic development of the country (i.e young and
aged) to those who contribute (i.e. adults). It therefore measures the working population and the
dependent population. It is calculated thus:

Young (0−19)+𝐴𝑔𝑒𝑑(65+)(𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡)
Adults (20−64)(active age)

It should be noted that when dependency ratio is calculated and the result is above 1 or 100%, it
means that the non-active population outweighs the active population and the burden would be
high. This is the case with LEDCs. On the other hand, when the dependency ratio is less than 1
or 100%, it means that the active population outweighs the non-active and there would be great
reduction in the burden. This is typical of MEDCs.

Assumptions of Dependency Ratio.

- Every member of the society is a consumer but only some are producers
- Adults from 16-64 or 20-64 year are producers while children less than 16 or 20 years and
the aged more than 65 years are the dependent population or burden of the adults.

46
Advantages of Dependency Ratio.

- Comparison can easily be made between regions e.g between developing and developed
countries.
- It can determine which regions are economically advanced or economically backward.
- It can also help the government in her socio-economic planning policies.
- The demographic characteristics of a country can also be known by calculating the
dependency ratio

Weaknesses of Dependency Ratio.

 Dependency ratio may be crude or misleading because many people stay on at school even
after the youthful age group and into adult age.
 In both developed and developing countries many people may still be working after 65 years.
This makes statistics for dependency questionable.
 The proportion of unemployed adults who depend on other adults is to high in some
countries especially LEDCs.

PRACTICAL WORK 3

 Define and calculate dependency ratio

 Construction and interpretation of population pyramids

Reading and picking out of the distinguishing characteristics of the different population
pyramids.

TOPIC: POPULATION CHANGE OVER TIME (POPULATION GROWTH)

Lesson 8: Historical Evolution of the World’s Population.

The study of the evolution of world population indicates very interesting trends and phases of
change over time. The world’s population growth was very slow or gradual before 1650. This
could be attributed to the epidemics, tribal wars, famine, poor medical facilities which caused
many deaths. In the absence of census at the time of Christ, the world’s population was estimated
at 300million and by 1650 it rose to about 500million people. Between 1650 and 1750 world
population started to increase at a faster rate than before. During this period, it was estimated at

47
791million. Between 1750 and 1850 world population noticed a more rapid and accelerated
growth as it doubled during this period. This increase could be attributed to the influence of the
economic and social changes such as the industrial and agrarian revolutions, improv3ment in
medical facilities and better sanitary conditions. At this time, it was the developed countries that
contributed to the global population growth. This is because the difference between births and
deaths were greater than those of the developing countries.

By 1850, world population stood at about 1,262 million. It doubled again by between 1850 and
1950 were it was about 2,515 million. The trend continued and just in about twenty-five years
(1980) it doubled again as it attained 4,500million. By this time up till date, the developing
countries were those contributing and are still contributing to this rapid population growth. By
the year 2000AD, world population stood about 6,130 million. Although the overall rate of
growth is slowing down the actual numbers per year are still increasing and by mid-1980s, the
estimated addition was 75millionper year but today it has risen to between 85 million and
96million each year and over 10,000 people are added to world population after every hour. It
was estimated that by 2010 world population would be about 7000million and by 2025 it may
stand at about 8300million (UN estimate). It should be noted that from the year 2010 to 2025
world population is only projected. The trend of increase in world population and projection are
shown on the following diagram.

48
Looking at the growth rate, the average annual growth rate of the world’s population of between
1.7% to 2% is fairly high, and it is not evenly distributed as there are marked variations between
economically developed and economically developing countries. The developed countries have
far lower growth rates that lie between 0.5% and 0.7% while the developing countries lie
between 1.9% - 2.5% which is considerably higher. Continentally, developing continents of
Asia, Latin America and Africa have far higher growth rates than Europe, North America, and
Australia. Africa being the highest (2.36%) and Europe the lowest. As a result of this disparities
in the rates of growth in the year 2000, it was observed that out of the about 6 billion people on
earth, the MEDCs accommodated only 1 billion whereas up to 5 billion resided in the LEDCs.

Lesson 9: Population Growth.

A) Meaning:
Population change (growth) is the indicator of the trend or direction which the population of a
region, continent or even the world is taking. It is simplest terms it can be referred to as the
increase in the population or number of people in an area. This can either be positive i.e. when it
is neither increasing nor negative when it drops. It can as well be zero population growth which
is achieved when birth rates and death rates are roughly equal and the average number of

49
children per family is about 2.3. Zero population growth is however difficult to attain
everywhere especially in Africa where there is still high birth rates hence jeopardizing the
chances of achieving zero population growth. It is however possible to attain this in the
developed countries given that birth and death rates are very low and roughly equal. These are
countries that have attained the fourth stage of the DTM.
Generally, birth rates in developing countries are very high, being up to 40 per thousand and
above with high fertility rates of over 120 per thousand. These are countries in Asia (excluding
Japan and China), Latin America (excluding Argentina and Cuba) and Africa. The highest birth
rate in 1997 were recorded in Africa south of the Sahara (Sub Sahara Africa) and some Middle
East countries with rates of over 50 per thousand. High birth and fertility rates are characteristics
of underdevelopment.
On the other hand, developed countries experience low fertility with birth rates of less than
20 per thousand e.g. Europe, USA, Australia, New Zealand and former U.S.S.R (CIS). Low birth
and fertility rates are thus characteristics of development. The world pattern of fertility is
therefore strongly bimodal with the bulk of the world’s population experiencing high fertility and
the other low.
B) The Population Change System.

The dynamism of population and the nature of change in terms of births, deaths numbers,
distribution, structure, and migration over time and space makes it to be considered as an open
system referred to as the population change system. This is because it has inputs, processes and
outputs. This is illustrated on the diagram below.

50
 Outputs
Inputs
Births Deaths
Natural increase or change

TOTAL
+++++++++++ +++++++++++
+++++++++++ +++++++++++
POPULATION
+ + ++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+++++++++++++ +++++++++++
Immigration + + + + +++ + + ++ + + + + + + + + ++ + + + + Emigration
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + ++ + + + ++ + + + + + +
Net migration

Immigrants Emigrants

Figure 4.2: Population change as an open system.

Inputs

The inputs into the system are those components which contribute to population increase. They
include births and immigrants (in-migrants). The more the number of births and influx of people
into an area/country each year and the greater the inputs and vice versa. With other determinants
held constant, the population would increase giving rise to a positive population change.

Processes

The processes are Natural increase or change and Net migration. Natural increase is the
difference between births and deaths (B-D). this operates when the difference between Birth and
Death is positive, but when the difference is negative, it is termed natural decrease. On the other
hand, Net migration is the difference between immigrants and emigrants (I-E) which may be
positive or negative. A positive net migration balance indicates that the number of immigrants is
more than the number of emigrants and in this case, the growth rate of the immigrant country
increase leading to an increase in the population of that country. For example the case of USA,
Australia and New Zealand. On the other hand, a negative net migration balance indicates that

51
the number of emigrants is more than that of immigrants. This would lead to a decrease in the
growth rate and population of the departure country. Most countries suffering from wars, famine,
experience this situation.

Outputs.

The outputs from the system constitute those components which help to bring about population
decrease. These include deaths and emigrants (out-migrants). When these numbers are high, the
greater would be the loss from the system and other determinants held constant, the population
would decline. This gives a negative population change.

The input, outputs and processes therefore operate to produce the total population which may be
high, low or stable. When inputs and outputs of the population system are in state of balance, the
population system would be in a state of equilibrium. In this state, the total population would
remain stable i.e. neither increasing nor decreasing and the change is not significant as the rate of
growth is very slow. This is common in countries which have attained the fourth stage of the
DTM whose population have an almost “Zero growth rate” with migrations highly regulated by
law and birth rates maintained at a replacement rate.

C) Determinants of Population Growth.

1. Fertility (Birth Rates)

It is the occurrence of live births. In other words, it is the level of childbearing in an individual
but more often in a society or nation. It should not be confused with fecundity which is the
reproductive capacity of an individual or the ability to have children. This is one of the major
inputs into the population system and contributes much to the global population growth.

Generally, birth rates in developing countries are very high, being up to 40 per thousand and
above with high fertility rates of over 120 per thousand. These are countries in Asia (excluding
Japan and China), Latin America (excluding Argentina and Cuba) and Africa. The highest rates
in 1997 were recorded in Africa south of the Sahara (Sub Sahara Africa) and some Middle East
countries with rates of over 50 per thousand. Thus high birth and fertility rates are characteristics
of underdevelopment.

52
On the other hand, developed countries experience low fertility with birth rates of less than 20
per thousand. Thus low birth and fertility are characteristics of development. The world pattern
of fertility is therefore strongly bimodal with the bulk of the world’s population experiencing
high fertility and the other low. Fertility is therefore one of the best socio-economic criteria for
distinguishing between developed and underdeveloped countries.

Indices of Fertility

These are the various methods used to ascertain or measure the fertility rate. They include:

a. Crude Birth Rate: This is the ratio of the number of live births in a period of time usually
one year to the total population expressed per thousand. This rate is very important because it
it demonstrates gross additions to the population through births and can also give a rough
idea of fertility trends in a particular country. It is calculated thus:
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 1000
×
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 1
b. Fertility Ratio or Child-Woman Ratio: This shows the number of children under 5 years in
a population per 1000 women of the reproductive age (generally given as being between 15
to 45 or 49). Its main advantage is that it is a standardized rate and its limitation is that it
cannot be calculated annually but only for the five years preceding a census. It is calculated
as follows:
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛 𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟 5 100 𝑜𝑟 1000
×
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 15 − 44 𝑜𝑟 49 1
c. General Fertility Rate: This is the ratio of the total number of registered births in a year
expressed per thousand women of normal reproduction or child bearing age (15-49years). It
is calculated as follows:
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 1000
×
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑 𝑏𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 1
d. Cohort (Age-Specific) Fertility Rate: This is the number of births to mothers or fathers
grouped according to their year of birth. The calculations, may take into consideration
legitimate or illegitimate births or both. This can be expressed as follows:
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑚𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑠 (𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑠)𝑜𝑓 𝑎 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑋 100
×
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 (𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑒𝑛)𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑋 1

53
e. Total Fertility Rate (TFR): This is the average number of children a woman is expected to
have during her lifetime. World average rate is estimated at about 3.1. The TFR is one of the
best indicators of future population growth. Its main advantage is that it takes into account
the female age-structure.
f. Replacement Rate: This is the level of birth (number of children born) in a year just
sufficient to balance the number of deaths in the same year. The global rate in the year 2000
stood at 2.1%. This is common in societies with zero population growth.
g. Reproduction rate: This is the average number of female babies born per one thousand
women during their reproductive period. This figure is not influenced by the age composition
of the population.
2. Mortality (Death Rate)
This is the occurrence of death. It is different from fertility in that it is more stable and
predictable and so it is less prone to rampant fluctuations as in fertility especially in the short
term. Death control is equally more acceptable than birth control and thus the rate of decline of
death is faster than that of fertility. Deaths occur at any age in ones life while fertility is more age
specific. Mortality is equally individual, inevitable and involuntary as opposed to fertility.
Looking at the trends of mortality, the rates though declining in developing countries, they
are still higher in some areas (especially in Africa) than the world’s average and even within the
developing world, there exist a disparity between the countries. For example, in 1970, average
mortality rate in Latin America was 21 per 1000, Asia 17 per 1000 and Africa between 25 and 30
per 1000. These rates however keep declining as the years go by. The increase in mortality in
most developing countries is attributed to inadequate medical facilities and few medical
personnel relative to the population, insufficient of clean water and food, poor hygiene and
sanitation, poverty, contagious diseases and increasing conflicts. However, the decline in death
or mortality rate in these areas may be attributed to the improvements in medical facilities,
importation of medical technology, better hygiene and sanitation, rising living standards , etc.
On the other hand, mortality rates in the developed countries are quite low, ranging between
8 to 10 per 1000. This low mortality can be attributed to advanced and sophisticated medical
technology, good hygiene and sanitation, etc. The decline in death rate has led to a sharp increase
in life expectancy which is about 75 years.

54
 Factors influencing mortality (Death rates)
1. Demographic (age and sex): If the population of a country is made up of high proportion of
old, death rate will be higher as opposed to regions where the population is dominated by
adults. Also in regions where there is an excess of males over females, death rate will be
higher than in regions where there is a higher number of females over males. This is because
male mortality at all ages is higher than those of females.
2. Medical facilities and supply of medicines: In areas with better medical services and
enough supplies of drugs like in the developed countries, death rates will be lower than in
areas where these facilities are poor e.g developing countries.
3. Social class/security: Mortality is higher in the poorer sections of the population than the
richer sections. This is because they are unable to afford medical treatment, balanced diet,
better housing and sanitary conditions etc.
4. Level of economic development: there is a link between death rate and the level of
economic development. Regions with low death rates between 5%o and 8%o are
economically developed and enjoying high standards of living. This is because of available
medical care, better diets and sanitary conditions. On the other hand, high mortality rates of
between 20%o and 30%o are associated with economically backward areas experiencing low
living standards. This is because of the inability to afford medical care, poor diet, etc.
5. Occupations: Generally any occupation like mining, quarrying, building and construction,
administration, research (due to mental strain) which is strenuous and involves a lot of harsh
conditions often leads to relatively high death rates.
6. Place of residence: In the developed world, death rates are higher in urban than in rural
areas. This is because rural areas are healthier than urban areas. Urban areas also suffer from
crowded living conditions, high traffic densities, atmospheric pollution etc. On the other
hand, in most developing regions, mortality is lower I urban areas than in rural areas. This is
because of improvements in urban living conditions and the concentration of good medical
facilities in towns.
7. Environmental catastrophes: They include earth quake, tsunami, drought, flood, etc.

Indices of Mortality.

a. Crude Death Rate (CDR): This is the ratio between the number of deaths in a single year
and the total population expressed per 1000. It is called crude because it does not give any

55
 indication of the causes of death. That is whether they are dying from diseases, starvation or
as a result of wars. It also does not indicate the age at which people are dying. Thus they are
only satisfactory when used in the comparison of population groups with identical
compositions. It is the most commonly used measure of mortality. It may be calculated thus:
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 1000
×
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 1
b. Infant Mortality Rate: This is simply the number of deaths of infants below one year old
per thousand live births in a given period. It is far higher in developing countries than in the
developed ones. The lower the rate, the fewer the infant deaths and vice versa. It is calculated
as follows.
𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑜𝑙𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 1000
×
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 1
c. Age-Specific Death Rates: This is simply the number of deaths of people of a certain age
group per 1000. For example infant mortality rate, adult or aged death rates. This provides a
more detailed analysis of the death rate situation of a region. When calculated, it facilitates
the construction of life tables of countries. It can be calculated thus:
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑝 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 1000
×
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑝 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 1
d. Standardized Mortality Rates (SMRs): This is the ratio of observed to expected deaths.
The expected deaths are derived from national figures while the observed deaths reflects the
real situation. This thus helps in comparison between national and locals trends. SMR of 100
indicates that the age-standardized mortality rate in the group being studied is the same as the
overall or standard population. But when it is less than 100, it shows a lower than average
death rate and over 100 shows a higher than average death rate. It can be calculated using the
formula:
𝑂𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 100
𝑆𝑀𝑅 = ×
𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 1
e. Maternal Mortality Rate: This is the number of women dying from causes arising from
deliveries and complications of pregnancy and childbirth per 10.000 live births. It is
generally far higher in developing countries than in developed countries. This is mainly due
to poor medical facilities and inadequate and poor pre-natal care.

56
f. Life Tables: It is summary of the likelihood of living from one age to any other. These are
tables showing the analysis of mortality by age and sex. They are usually compiled and
analyzed from census or vital registration data and their accuracy depends on the
effectiveness of these two sources of population statistics. It usually shows for each age
group, the number of deaths, the number of survivors and the expectancy of those living. E
The various life tables include; the life table mortality rate (i.e. it presents the probability of
dying during a given interval usually one year), the survival table (shows the number of
survivors at each age from birth), death tables (comprise the number of deaths at each age
and for both sexes), average life expectancy or life span, problem or median life (the duration
necessary to reduce the population to one-half).
3. Net Migration
When migration or immigration is more than out migration or emigration, a region will
experience high population growth but where the reverse situation takes place, then there
would be a slow population growth rate. Thus departure areas lose while receiving areas
gain.

Measures of Population Growth.

These are the various ways or methods used to ascertain or to calculate population growth.
They include:

1. Population Growth Rate: This measure the rate of increase or decrease of population
resulting from natural increase and net migration expressed as a percentage of the total
population. This measure is advantageous because it takes into consideration the effects of
natural increase and net migration. This commonly used measure is calculated thus:
𝐵−𝐷±𝐼−𝐸 100
𝐺. 𝑅 = ×
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 1
Where B =Births, D= Deaths, I = Immigration and E = Emigration.
2. Natural Increase or Decrease: Natural increase is the excess of births over deaths or the
positive difference between birth and deaths. In other words, it is the growth of a population
brought about as births exceeds deaths.

Natural decrease on the other hand is a situation where there is a negative difference between
births and deaths. It is calculated as follows:

57
 𝑁𝐼 = 𝐵 − 𝐷

3. Natural Increase and Decrease Rates: Natural increase rate is the positive difference
between the crude birth and deaths rates expressed per thousand of the total population while
the natural decrease rate is the negative difference between the two of them also expressed
per thousand of the total population. These two are less common and rarely occur. Calculated
thus:
𝐵−𝐷 1000
𝑁. 𝐼. 𝑅 = 𝐸𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 ×
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 1
Or Crude Birth Rate (CBR) – Crude Death Rate (CDR)
4. The Annual Rate of Increase: This is one of the most common and comprehensive
measures of population growth. This is because it takes into consideration both the effects of
natural increase and migration. This rate is advantageous because it is helpful in assessing
accuracy of vital and migration records. The following formula is used.

𝑡 𝑝1
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒: 𝑟 = (√ − 1) × 100
𝑝0

Where Po is the population at the beginning of the period

P1= population at the end of the period and
t= the number of years. The two main components i.e. Po and P1 may be gotten from
census returns or population estimates.
5. The Population Equation (Balancing Equation) Method: This is the basic method or
measure used to calculate the numerical change of population over time. The future size of a
population depends on a range of functions, which are taken into consideration when doing
the calculation. The following formula is used.
𝑃2 = 𝑃1 + (𝐵 − 𝐷) + (𝐼 − 𝐸)
Where P2 =Population at a later date,
P1 =Population at the earlier date
B=Births
D=Deaths between the two periods
I=Immigration (in-migration) and
E=Emigration (out-migration) between the periods
B – D will be Natural Increase while

58
 I – E would be Net migration which may be positive or negative.
6. Doubling Time: This is one of the earliest measures of population change. Doubling time
converts the annual growth rate percentage into a statistic that estimates the number of years
that will take the target population to double. (i.e. grow twice as its original size.). A simple
way of calculating doubling time is to apply the law of 70. In other words, any population
growing at a constant annual percentage can have its doubling growth rate into 70. It is
written thus:
70
𝐷𝑜𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒 =
𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡
For example: Given that the population growth rate is 2.8% per annum, and the population
stands at 15 million. Calculate the doubling time of the population.
70
𝐷. 𝑇 = = 25𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
2.8

PRACTICAL WORK 4: MEASUREMENTS OR CALCULATIONS OF

DEMOGRAPHIC INDICES

- Fertility, fecundity, birth rate

- Mortality
- Growth rate
- Population projections/doubling time
- Net migration

Lesson 10: Factors of Population Growth.

These are the numerous socio-economic and natural factors that pass through fertility, mortality,
and net migration to influence the rate of population growth. They include:

1. Marriage: Marital behavior contributes to rapid or slow population growth in various

regions of the world. Countries with high percentage of married persons, early and
polygamous marriages, are very likely to have faster population growth through natural
increase than regions where the proportion is low.
2. Government Policy: Government through her influence on fertility may either encourage or
discourage population growth. In areas where government practice pro-birth that is,
encourages high birth rate (the case of Germany and Italy in the 1930s and most developing

59
 countries today) would increase fertility and thus high birth rate. On the other hand, countries
which institute anti-natal policies (‘one child’ policy in china) aimed at reducing population
growth.
3. Improved medical services: Aspects of improvement here include opening of more
hospitals and health centres, child care units, availability of drugs and vaccines, increase
doctor/patient ratio, etc play a dual role in affecting population growth. This is seen in the
sense that this improvement I developing countries has contributed to increasing growth rate
because of better pre-natal care and reduced infant mortality. On the other hand, in the
developed world, this improvement has helped slow down the rate of population growth.
4. Environmental factors: These factors (famine, epidemics, natural disasters, etc) are known
to be very destructive and act negatively on population growth given that they reduce
population numbers through death as many people are often killed, encourage a lot of out
migration or emigration.
5. Wars: These adversely affect population growth as they cause mass deaths and out migration
of people contributing or slowing down population growth because during war time, the rate
of reproduction is almost zero (baby dust) as the adult group which is the most biologically
reproductive age group is involved and many of them die in the course of the war. For
instance the First and Second World Wars, Rwandan Civil war, Sudan, Liberia, etc all led to
the loss of millions of lives (mostly adults).

Lesson 11: Modern Demographic Explosions

Demographic explosion or demographic revolution refers to the sharp increase in the number of
people that have been or are being liberated from colonial dependence, has become one of the
most important worldwide problems in socioeconomic development in recent decades.

A) Causes of modern demographic explosion.

1. Agricultural advancements: This advancement especially in the 20th century has allowed
humans to increase food production using fertilizers, pesticides allowing humans with more
access to food that leads to subsequent population explosions.
2. Better medical facilities: Science was able to produce better means of producing food,
which allowed families to feed more mouths. Medical science equally made many

60
 discoveries thanks to which they were able to defeat a whole range of diseases that had
claimed thousands of lives until now were cured because of the invention of vaccines.
3. Technological advancement in fertility treatment: With the latest technological
advancements and more discoveries in medical science, it has become possible for couples
who are unable to conceive to undergo fertility treatment methods and have their own babies.
Today there are effective medicines that increase the chance of conception thus increasing
global population.
4. Immigration: Many people prefer to move to developed countries like USA, Canada, where
the best facilities are available in terms of medical, education, security and employment. The
result is that those people settle over there, eventually making those places overcrowded.
5. Lack of family planning: This is mostly common in most developing countries as they have
a large number of people who are illiterate, live below poverty line and have little or no
knowledge about family planning. They also give out children for marriage at very early age
since they are unable to understand the harmful effects of overpopulation and lack of quality
education prompts them to avoid family planning measures.
6. Poor contraceptives use: Coupled with poor family planning on the part of partners can lead
to unexpected pregnancies though contraceptives are easily available for use thereby
increasing global population.
B) Consequences
a. Depletion of natural resources: The earth can only produce a limited amount of water and
food, which is falling short of the current needs. Thus, acts of violence and aggression like
cutting down forests, hunting wildlife recklessly, pollution, etc. outside of a war zone have
increased while competing for resources.
b. Degradation of the environment: With the overuse of coal, oil and natural gas, it has started
producing some serious effects on our environment coupled with the exponential rise in the
use of vehicles and industries. All these has badly affected the quality of air as it increases
CO2 emissions leading to global warming, melting of polar ice, changing climate patterns,
rise in sea levels, etc.
c. Conflicts and wars: Conflicts over water and other resources are becoming a source of
tension between countries, which could result in wars. These equally cause more diseases to
spread making them harder to control. All of these will only become worse if solutions are
not sought out for the factors affecting our population.

61
d. Rise in unemployment: When a country becomes overpopulated, it gives rise to
unemployment as there are fewer jobs to support a larger number of people. This rise in
unemployment gives rise to crime such as theft, as people want to feed their families and
provide them basic amenities of life.
e. High cost of living: As the difference between demand and supply continues to expand due
to overpopulation, it raises the prices of various essential commodities including food, shelter
and healthcare. This indicates people have to pay more to survive and feed their families.
f. Pandemics and epidemics: Poverty is linked to many environmental and social reasons such
as overcrowding and unhygienic living conditions, malnutrition and inaccessible, inadequate
or non-existent healthcare, for which the poor are more likely to be exposed to infectious
diseases. High densities increase the chance of the emergence of new pandemics and
epidemics.
g. Malnutrition, starvation and famine: When the availability of resources is scarce,
starvation, malnutrition, along with ill health and diseases caused by diet-deficiency such as
rickets become more likely.
h. Lower life expectancy: Low life expectancy is mostly experienced in less developed regions
as a result of the booms in population. This cause a shortage of resources resulting in less
access to medical care, freshwater, food and jobs and ultimately in a sharp fall in life
expectancy.
C) Managing Population Growth
i. Pro-natal policies: These are policies which are designed with the purpose of increasing the
birth rate/fertility rate of an area/country. They are found in countries with either very slow
natural increase or natural decrease and in areas with ageing population. This is usually
carried out by giving out incentives such as money or material goods to families if they have
below or above a certain number of children.
Singapore is one of the countries that have championed this policy. In 1988, Singapore
pushed a campaign offering 12 weeks maternity leave for mothers of 4+ children, posters and
slogans “have 3 or more”, and offered larger and larger child benefits for each child a family
had. This was due to a fall in birth rate due to men and women deciding not to have families,
and pursue a career instead.
iii. Anti-natal policies: An anti-natal policy is a population policy which aims to discourage
births. This can be done through education on family planning and increased access to

62
 contraception, or by law. An example of an anti-natal policy, which encourages families to
have fewer children, is the famous “one child policy” in china introduced in 1978 – 1980.
This policy was encouraged rather forcefully by the Chinese government, forcing women to
have abortions if they already had a child as well heavy fine of about £3,000 while for those
who respected the policy benefited from free education, housing priority and family benefits.
In certain instances, two babies were permitted if; both parents lived in the rural areas or
were from one-child household, if the first child was a female or died in the Sichuon
earthquake in 2018, etc.
The policy recorded a remarkable impact as fertility rate dropped from 5.7 in 1960 to 1.5 in
2011, about 400 million births may have been prevented. It also led to an ageing population
with increase dependency ratio, etc.

Lesson 12: Models of Population Growth; The Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

A) Meaning: Demographic transition is the distinct various stages in demographic growth

through which a population passes. The DTM describes a sequence of changes over a period
of time in the relationship between birth rates and death rates and overall population change.
These changes are held to occur as a nation progresses from a rural, agrarian and illiterate
state to a predominantly urban, industrial and literate one. This model was developed by F.W
Notestein and W.S Thompson in 1945 and was based on demographic studies in Northern
America and Western Europe. Four stages are clearly distinguished by Notestein but
convincing evidences shows that a fifth stage exists.
B) Stages (Demographic and Socioeconomic characteristics)
Stage 1: High Stationary or Primitive Regime or Phase
a. Demographic characteristics: At this stage marking the beginning of the cycle, both birth
and death rates are high and subject t6o short term fluctuations. Both rage between 30 and 40
per 1000. Infant mortality is very high as about 200 per 1000 children die before reaching the
age of 15 years. Population growth is very slow and fluctuates. Life expectancy here is very
low being about 35 years. The age-sex pyramid of such regions experiencing this stage
would be expansive with a broad base and very narrow apex.
b. Socio-economic characteristics
- High rate of illiteracy as a result of grossly inadequate educational facilities
- Poorly developed social amenities like pipe borne water, electricity, etc.

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- Low per capita income
- Low standards of living
- A purely subsistence agricultural society with backward methods of production.
- Non-exploitation of potential resources
- It is a stage of zero industrial development and very poor transport facilities.

Generally, the social, economic and political characteristics of this stage correspond to those
of the traditional society according to W.W Rostow in his stages of economic growth.
However, this stage rarely exist today but some evidence show that some underdeveloped or
uncivilized parts of tropical Africa, rainforest tribes in the Amazon and S.E Asia still
experience some of these characteristics.

Stage 2: Early Expanding Regime (Phase)

a. Demographic characteristics: At this stage, birth rate (fertility) remain high (about 35 per
1000) but death rates (mortality) fall rapidly to about 20 per 1000. Infant mortality is also
lower due to improved medical facilities and other factors although still high when compared
to other stages. This leads to high natural increase and rapid population growth. Life
expectancy at this stage also increases between 45 to 50 years which is still low compared to
other stages. Dependency ratio is high for countries at this stage and the age-sex pyramid
depicts the expansive type with a youthful population having a broad base and narrows
gradually towards the apex.
b. Socio-economic characteristics
- Development of educational facilities, although still inadequate but the literacy level is
higher than in the first stage
- Improvement in health facilities which results in lower death rates.
- Provision of other amenities like pipe borne water, electricity, etc
- Per capita income is a bit higher than in the first stage
- Investment rates generally increases from 5% to 10% of the National Income
- Agriculture has been greatly revolutionized with the introduction of modern methods of
production
- The secondary sector is introduced with the development of some major manufacturing
industries although capital is mostly from outside the region (foreign investments)

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- Improvements in living standards.
NB: These socio-economic and political characteristics are similar to those of the pre-
conditions for take-off and take off itself according to W.W Rostow’s stages of economic
growth model. Most African, Asian and Latin American countries are found at this stage.
The U.K and other western European countries exhibited these characteristics between 1750
and 1870 i.e. at the beginning of the industrial revolution.
Stage 3: Late Expanding Regime/Phase
a. Demographic characteristics: At this stage birth rates start falling rapidly (between 20 and
25 per 1000) due to birth control methods, low infant mortality, rise in status of women, etc
while death rates continue to fall slightly (about 10 to 15 per 1000) due to improved medical
facilities, good diets, clean housing and better housing, etc. Infant mortality is low. These
give rise to a slowly increasing population. Life expectancy is higher between 55 and 65
years. Dependency ratio is reduced. The age-sex pyramid begins to contract at the base and
widens at the apex. This thus shows an intermediate age-sex pyramid.
b. Socio-economic characteristics
- Rise in per capita income
- Great expansion in trade
- Agriculture is highly mechanized resulting in high output
- Increase in investment rate
- Great improvements in the provisions of social amenities
- Medical services and facilities continue to improve
- Higher literacy level compared to stage two.
- Steady consolidation of the new industrialized society.
NB: This socio-economic characteristics are similar to those of the drive towards maturity
according to W.W Rostow’s model of economic growth model and examples of countries at
this stage today include; China, Cuba, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Portugal, New
Zealand, etc.
Stage 4: Low Stationary or Fluctuating or Mature Regime
a. Demographic characteristics: At this stage, both birth rate and death rate remain low and
fluctuating slightly. Birth rate is between 10 and 15 per 1000 due to high life expectancy,
high literacy level, later and monogamous marriages, etc while death rate is between 8 and
12 per 1000 due to great improvement in medical facilities, good diets, housing, sanitary

65
 conditions, etc. In few instances like the case of Germany and Sweden, death rate may rise
above death rate leading to a natural population decline. This is mainly because of ageing.
Life expectancy at this stage is very high above 75 years and dependency ratio increases. The
age-sex pyramid is the regressive or constrictive type with a wide apex showing an
increasing number of old people and a narrow base showing a decreasing number of children.
b. Socio-economic characteristics.
- High literacy level
- Development of a good social security system to cater for the aged
- Highly developed medical facilities with a lot of specialized equipment and personnel
- Industrial development is at its peak and geared towards the production of durables.
- Per capita income is very high leading to high living standards
- There is rapid growth of quaternary occupations, increase materialism and the location of
resources to social welfare.
- Transport development reaches its zenith with high level of connectivity.
NB: The socio-economic and political characteristics of this stage are similar to those of the
stages of high mass consumption which is the last stage in the economic growth model
according to W.W Rostow. Examples of countries at this stage include: Germany, UK,
Canada, USA, Norway and many economically developed countries. They are considered
demographically advanced.
Stage 5: Low and Declining Regime/Phase
This occurs when birth rate falls or is lower than death rate. Here, birth rate ranges between 8
and 10 per 1000 while death rate between 10 and 12 per 1000. This gives rise to a declining
population as population growth becomes negative. This is a characteristic of economically
and demographically developed countries like Sweden, Germany, and Japan. Life expectancy
here is very high with a high dependency ratio given that the number of old people keeps
increasing. The reason for high death here is purely demographic i.e. due to the ageing of the
population. On the non-demographic point of view, population decline may be experienced
during wars, famine, natural disasters, etc. the socio-economic characteristics of this stage
corresponds to W.W Rostow’s high mass consumption stage in his economic growth model.

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C) Application of the Model to Cameroon.
The DTM in Cameroon shows an evolution in terms of birth and death rates in Cameroon
indicating that Cameron has passed through stage one of the DTM but has not attained stage
four. Demographic, socio-economic and political evidence show that Cameroon is largely in
the second stage and has evolved into the early part of stage three.
a. Demographic characteristics
- Birth rate is still high. In 1976, the crude birth rate was 45 per 1000, then in 1997 it dropped
slightly to 41 per 1000.
- Mortality or death rate is rapidly declining. For instance mortality rate between 1960 and
1965 was 23.4 per 1000 and dropped to 10.7 per 1000 between 1995 and the year 2000.
- Infant mortality is still high though declining.
- There is high natural increase leading to high population growth.
- There has been a slight increase in life expectancy.
b. Socio-economic characteristics.
- Higher literacy level as a result of the provision of educational facilities
- Improvements in medical facilities, evidenced by the establishment of health units,
vaccination and inoculation campaigns, training of more doctors, etc.
- Improvement in hygiene and sanitation

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- Provision of amenities like pipe borne water supply, electricity, etc.
- Improvement in the level of economic development as investment levels have increased to
about 5%.
- Agriculture has been revolutionized
- Gradual increase in per capita income and living standards
- Improvement in transport and trade expansion.
NB: The socio-economic and political characteristics are similar to those of stage 2 of W.W
Rostow’s economic growth model that is the pre-conditions for take-off stage.
D) Appraisal of the Model
Importance of the DTM
 It provides a useful basis for further study of demographic changes.
 It is used to show the population growth of a country changes over a period of time.
 It may be used to compare rates of growth between different countries at a given point in
time.
 It assists in government socio-economic planning policies.
Weaknesses or criticisms of the DTM
Despite its applicability, this model has its limitations. They include
 It is drawn purely from the North American and European experience and it is very unlikely
that the developing countries would follow an identical growth model as they would certainly
undergo different population growth patterns because of their different racial, cultural and
historical backgrounds.
 .in some developed countries like Sweden, Japan and Germany, birth rates have fallen below
death rates resulting to population decline indicating that the original model which shows
four stages may no longer hold today as demographic changes continuously occur. Indicating
a fifth stage.
 The model did not take into consideration the negative effects of natural disasters and war on
the pattern of population growth. They would obviously distort the sequence of population
growth.
 The time scale of the model especially in many S.E Asian countries like Hong Kong,
Malaysia, etc. is not being respected as they develop at a much faster rate than did the early
industrialized countries.

68
 The population policies of countries differ and therefore their demographic growth would not
follow the same pattern.
 The DTM does not take into account migration, which is a major component of population
change.
 Differences in socio-economic and cultural behaviors and government attitude towards
population change in some countries have made it impossible to follow strictly the stages
predicted.
 The model neglects the influence of cultural differences like early marriages and large family
sizes.
 The fall in birth rate in stage 3 has been very slow in some countries than the model suggests
because of different religious or political opposition to birth control.
 The model assumes that all countries would experience a fall in the death rate during stage 2
as a result of industrialization but this has not been the case, as many developing countries
never became industrialized.

TOPIC: POPULATION CHANGE OVER SPACE (MIGRATION)

Lesson 13: Migration

A) Meaning
Migration has been going on for thousands of years and the present distribution of man over
the earth surface owes much to it. In it simplest terms, migration can be referred to “a permanent
or semi-permanent change of residence with a complete re-adjustment of the community
affiliations of the migrant”. It can also be referred to “the movement or displacement of people
from one geographical area to another at a particular time”. This movement of people from place
to place can be viewed as a spontaneous human effort to achieve a balance between population
and resources. It is worth mentioning here that migration is a natural phenomenon which
produces demographic, social and economic interactions that together reduces some irregularities
of nature.
There are however some difficulties in an attempt to establish a clear and concise definition
of migration. As such, a classification has been made which applies in the domains of; origins
and destinations of migrants, distance, duration, motives, volumes and causes underlying it. Such

69
classifications are necessary to put the individual into context, given that population movements
can be so diversified, to see how it relates to or compares with other movements.
B) Characteristics or Differentials of Migration.
Migration is selective and differential migration simply means the tendency for certain elements
of the population to be more migratory than others. In other words, it is based on the concept that
some people and some groups are likely to migrate than others. These differentials or selectivity
occurs as follows;
 Age selective: In both internal and external migration flows, late adolescents and young
adults usually predominate. They move more than the young and old people and are often
migrating to their first job and for education or merely for adventure. They adjust themselves
to their new environments than do the other age groups.
 Sex Selective: This aspect needs critical examination because either males or females may in
certain economic circumstances be more migratory. Generally, in developed countries, short
distance internal migrants are mostly females while over long distances males predominates.
On the other hand, in many developing countries, male migration predominates in both
internal and international migration. But with the improvement in transport facilities,
mobility has increased for box sexes today making it almost equal for both sexes especially
for internal migration.
 Marital Status: Generally, single people migrate more than the married. This is because of
the constraints involved in moving families. In most developed countries however, there is
more and more migration of families. This is because of their small family sizes as opposed
to the large family sizes in developing countries.
 Occupation: Migration is common among certain occupational groups than others.
Professional classes are more migratory than either semi-skilled or unskilled workers. Also
unemployed persons tend to be more migratory than employed persons.
 Education Level: Those who have spent a longer period of time in education (school) or
those with higher literacy level migrate more than illiterates or the less educated.
 Ethnic Group: Some ethnic groups are more migratory than others e.g. The Fulani are more
migratory than the Bantus.
 Socio-economic groups: Generally the rich migrate more than the poor given that the rate of
migration is a function of money (ability to bear the cost of movement).

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 Races and Nationality: Whites migrates more than Blacks.
C) Laws and Theories of Migration
i) The Inverse Distance Law Theory by G.K. ZIPF.
He expanded on the first law of migration by Ravenstein (which states that the majority of
migrants travel short distances and their numbers decreases as distance increases). Thus the
inverse distance law states that “the volume of migration is inversely proportional to the
distance travelled by the migrants”. This is expressed mathematically as follows:
1
𝑁𝑖𝑗 ∝
𝐷𝑖𝑗
Where Nij= the number of migrants from town i to town j and
Dij= is the distance between the two towns.
This inverse relationship means that a greater number of migrants move over short distances
and decrease as the distance increases. The distance decay concept therefore applies in this
model. The inverse distance law is illustrated on the following diagram.

A
4km

Figure: The inverse distance law.

The diagram shows three locations A, B and C at different distances. When the formula is
applied, the number of migrants between these places can be known. E.g. the number of
migrants from town A to town B (Nij) will be represented by 1/10 or 0.1 given that Dij is 0.2.

71
 it shows that more people travel between A and C (0.25 shortest distance), followed by B and
C, and the least number is between A and B i.e. 0.1 (longest distance). This illustrates the
inverse relationship wherein as distances between places increase migration flow is smaller.
Conversely, the number of people increases over shorter distances.
Reasons for the above inverse relationship
- Long distances are more costly and thus few people can afford transport cost while shorter
distances are cheaper and so more migrants can afford.
- There is limited information about long distance places.
- Family and friendship ties and heavy family responsibilities reduces long range movers.
- Higher risk and hardship are involved in travelling over long distances than shorter ones.
- Short distances do not involve a lot of documentation, as it is the case with long distances.
- Communication and language difficulties discourage long distance movements.
- Intervening obstacles like poor relief, harsh climate, and employment opportunities limit the
number of people moving over long distances.

ii) The Gravity Model

This is a model of interaction between two population centres based on Newton’s Law of
Universal Gravitation. Newton’s Law of Universal Gravitation states that “any two heavenly
bodies attract one another with a force that is directly proportional to the product of their masses
and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them”. This is expressed using
the following formula.

𝑀₁𝑀₂
𝐹=𝐺
𝐷²

Where F=the force of attraction

M₁ and M₂=the masses of the two bodies
D²=the distance apart squared
G=the Universal constant of nature.
From the formula, it can be deduced that:
 As the distance (D) between the two bodies increases, the forces of attraction (F) relationship
between them decreases. This indicates an inverse or negative relationship.

72
 If the masses (M₁ and M₂), increase, the force (F) between them increases as well. This
indicates a direct or positive relationship.
In population studies (notably migration) this model predicts the tendency for people to migrate
between two places. This model takes into consideration two important variables, that is, the
migrants and distance. It is a fundamental fact that most migrations take place over relatively
shorter distances. This model is therefore based on the fact that migration is some function of
distance. It helps to explain the behavior of the migrant in relation to distance. This model is
expressed mathematically in the following formula:
𝑃𝑖𝑃𝑗 𝑃𝑎𝑃𝑏
𝑀𝑖𝑗 = 𝐾 𝑜𝑟 𝑀𝑎𝑏 = 𝐾
(𝐷𝑖𝑗)² (𝐷𝑎𝑏)²
Where Mij or Mab=the volume of migration between place i and j or a and b
Pi and Pj or Pa and Pb=populations of the two places j and i or a and b respectively
Dij2 or Dab2= Distance separating the two place i and j or a and b, squared.
K=constant of proportionality.
In the formula, the two towns i and j or a and b have replaced the two heavenly bodies, M 1 M2 in
Newton’s Law. The populations Pi and Pj or Pa and Pb represent their masses and their
interactions Mij or Mab represent the force between them. The gravity model suggests two basic
relationships (principles). They are:
a. The size of the population at one or both towns: Here, the volume of migration is directly
proportional to the population size and product of the area or the destination. This implies
that the greater the population and population product (various attractions developed by the
population) and size of a town or city, the greater is its ability to attract migrants. Thus when
migration occurs over a certain distance, it tends to terminate in an urban area with large
population size and product.
b. The distance between the two towns: The volume of migration or interaction is inversely
proportional to the square of the distance separating the two regions. This simply means that
most migrants travel short distances and the number of migrants’ decreases as distance
increases. This notion summaries the first migration law of E.G Ravestein and the Inverse
Distance Law of G.K. Zipf (Distance decay concept).
Example 1: Using the3 formula above, calculate M for the region i with population 25,000
and region j with population of 50,000 with the two regions being 100km apart.

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 25,000 × 50,000 1,250,000,000
𝑀= = = 125,000 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠
100² 10,000
Example 2: Using the gravity model formula also, the spatial interaction between Bamenda
and the other towns can be calculated using the hypothetical information from the following
diagram.

Bafoussam Fundong
(200,000 people)
(65,000 people)

Bamenda
(250,000 people)

Wum
Mamfe
(50,000 people) (70,000 people)

Bamenda is linked to four separate towns with different distances separating them and different
population sizes. If the gravity model formula is used without the K value, the following results
are obtained.
a. Bamenda and Bafoussam
250,000 × 200,000 50,000,000,000
= = = 7812500
802 𝑜𝑟 80 × 80 6400
b. Bamenda and Wum
250,000 × 70,000 17,500,000,000
= = = 2,734,375
80² 𝑜𝑟 80 × 80 6400
c. Bamenda and Mamfe

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 250,000 × 50,000 1,250,000,000
= = 312,500
200² 𝑜𝑟 200 × 200 40,000

d. Bamenda and Fundong

250,000 × 65,000 16,250,000,000
= = = 3,316,326
702 𝑜𝑟 70 × 70 4900
From the values of predicted spatial interaction, it is observed that the movement of people
between Bamenda and Bafoussam and between Bamenda and Wum are different even though
they have the same distances from Bamenda. It’s therefore the difference in population size that
is significant here. It should however be noted that the results obtained above are unrealistic
(without using the multiplier or K-value) because the volume of spatial interaction is too large or
exaggerated. However, the formula can be modified in order to make the results more realistic
i.e. bring them closer to actual interactions. This can be done by scaling down, using the
multiplier or K-value constant. E.g if the modification made is a constant of 0.01, what will be
the actual volume of migration or interaction between i and j in example 1?
This would simply be 0.01 ´ 125,000 =1250 migrants.
In example 2, if the K value of 0.0001 is introduced to the formula, the resultant values of
predicted flows will be scaled down and brought closer to reality as follows:
a. 0.0001 × 7,812,500 = 781
b. 0.0001 × 2,734,375 = 273.5
c. 0.0001 × 312,500 = 31.25
d. 0.0001 × 3,16,326 = 331.6
Applicability of the Gravity Model
- It is a useful way of examining the movement of people, goods, and ideas between two
places.
- It integrates the frictional effects of distance, bringing out the fundamental fact that migration
or movement is a function of distance between two places which are complementary to each
other.
- It considers the influence of sizes of the population of both areas which is not considered in
other models.

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 Weaknesses of the Gravity Model
- It fails to consider the effects of intervening opportunities on the volume of migration
between two places but dwells only on population size and distance.
- Although population size is important in determining movement, it is not the only
determinant or pull factor of migrational flows as indicated in the model.
- In the case of distance, the model fails to consider the mode of transport and the difficulty of
movement (that is the nature of terrain).
- The level of information available to migrants about the destination is inadequate.
- The model does not consider or mention the contrast between regions (that is
complementarity).
iii) Intervening Opportunities Model by A.S. Stouffer
This model was postulated in 1940 by an American Psychologist by name A.S. Stouffer. The
model looks at the influence of opportunities found between the migrant’s area of origin and
destination on the volume of migration or spatial interaction. Opportunities are the pull or
seductive factors present at the destination that attract the population while intervening
opportunities are all the attractive or pull factors found between a migrant’s area of origin and
destination. In other words they are spatial sponges soaking up potential migrants between
complementary places. The model is expressed mathematically in the following formula.
𝑂𝑗
𝑁𝑖𝑗 ∝
𝑂𝑖𝑗
Where Nij= Number of competing migrants between town i and j
Oj=The number of opportunities at j
Oij=The number of intervening opportunities between town i and j.
This model has two basic principles guiding it. They are:
a. That the volume of migration or the amount of interaction over a given distance is
directly proportional to the number of opportunities at the point of destination. This
implies that the more the opportunities at the destination, the greater the number of
migrants who move into it.
b. That the volume of migration or interaction is inversely proportional to the number of
opportunities between the point of departure and destination. This implies that the greater
the number of intervening opportunities between the two places, the smaller the volume

76
 of migration and the fewer the number, the greater the volume of migration between the
two places.
Weaknesses of the model.
- The model does not explain the causes of migration nor take into consideration other
significant variables affecting the volume of migration and interaction between competing
areas.
- The mode of transport is not given.

Lesson 14: Notion of Spatial Interaction

A) Meaning
Spatial interaction refers to the movement of goods and services, people and ideas (information)
between specific areas and over certain distances in time and space. Some of the movements are
visible (tangible e.g people and goods) while others involves invisible (intangible e.g
information/ideas, etc). The rate of interaction varies from region to region depending on the
level of socio-economic development, literacy level of the population, the physical geography of
the regions and the distance separating them.
B) Factors Influencing the amount of Spatial interaction between regions
1. Complementarity: This simply means the degree to which two regions complement each
other. In order for two or more regions to interact there must be demand in one and a supply
in the other. That is, the demand for a good or service at one place must be matched by the
supply of that same good or service at another. (i.e supply must be backed by the ability to
pay for it). Complementary regions are linked by flows, which reflect the relative surpluses
and deficiencies of the regions and the greater the surpluses and deficiencies, the greater
would be the amount of interaction between them. It also involves farmers going to the farm
in the morning and returning in the evening, students going to school at the beginning of the
term and returning at the end of the term, etc.
2. Intervening Opportunities: For smooth interaction to take place between regions, there
must be the absence of intervening opportunities between the origin and destination. The
presence of these opportunities would reduce the amount of spatial interaction between
regions and so they should be absent.
3. Transferability: Interaction can only take place with products that are transferable even if
there are no intervening opportunities. For spatial interaction to take place, the products or

77
services must be mobile not just physically but economically. For example if a buyer at place
A pays for a product or service at place B and the product cannot be moved from B to A,
then interaction has not taken place. On the other hand, if the buyer at place A cannot afford
the product at place B, that product will be fixed to the spot.
Apart from these three factors advanced by Ullman, the volume of migration or interaction
between two regions depends on a number of factors. These include:
a. Cost of factor: Various types of costs may affect the amount of spatial interaction
between places. Such costs may include monetary cost, cost of energy, cost of
inconvenience, time cost, social cost, etc. Monetary cost is the most important here. For
example, the higher the cost of transport, the lesser the amount of interaction or migration
given that fewer people would be prepared to pay the high transport cost.
b. Distance: The amount of interaction varies with distance as the amount of spatial
interaction or volume of migration decreases with increasing distance between two
regions. Thus the amount of interaction is greater over short distances than over longer
distances.
c. Level of Information: The amount of spatial interaction is determined by the level of
information available between two regions that is knowledge of the destination by the
migrant. Hence the amount of interaction or migration is greater where migrants are well
informed and educated about the opportunities at the destination and would be lower
where migrants are less educated or informed.
d. Political Atmosphere: Spatial interaction between two countries/regions would be high
if the two regions are politically stable but when there is political instability in one or
both countries/regions, spatial interaction would be very low or non-existent. This also
applies with migration laws.
e. Nature of Physical Environment: Where there are physical obstacles like rugged or
hilly relief, swamps or floods, etc between two regions, especially in regions where there
is little or no development, the amount of interaction reduces. Conversely, where these
are absent or better developed, interaction would increase.
f. Formation of Economic Unions: Where countries have organized and grouped
themselves in trading blocs (Economic unions) such as CEMAC, ECOWAS, EU, LAIA
the amount of spatial interaction between such regions will be greater than when such
unions do not exist.

78
 g. Cultural Ties/Links: The degree of spatial interaction is greater between places with
some identical cultural aspects like language, education, ect than between regions with
contrasting aspects.
h. Population Size: The volume of migration or spatial interaction is directly proportional
to the population size. That is, the larger the population of the areas concerned, the
greater the volume of interaction and vice versa.
i. Mode and Development of Transport: Physical distance separating areas is today not a
great influence on interaction due to improvement in technology. Thus areas with
efficient transport modes tend to have higher volumes of spatial interaction than those
where they are backward.

Lesson 15: Types or Forms of Migration.

The diversity of migration in terms of duration, direction, distance, volume and motive has made
the task of classifying migration difficult. Despite these shortcomings, perhaps the most
important and commonly used way for classifying migration is distance. This brings out two
distinct but broad types of migration (that is Internal and External or International). The various
types of movements fall under these broad types. This is seen below.
A) Voluntary versus Forced.
Voluntary movements occur when migrants move from choice. Here the decision to move is
taken by the migrant. Thus migration results from unforced motives because before the migrant
takes a decision to move voluntarily, he must have some good physical, economic, social and
political reasons which would improve on his quality of life or have greater freedom.
Forced/compulsory/ involuntary migration on the other hand occurs when people have virtually
no choice but to move from an area. It describes the expulsion of people from one place to
another and the decision to migrate is not taken by the migrant but by forced circumstances.
Much compulsory migration has resulted from either religious or political persecution, natural
disasters, wars or economic impositions.
B) Internal Migrations
These are concerned with the movement of people within a country or political unit. Here
therefore, migrants do not cross national boundaries.
Types of Internal Migrations

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1. Rural-Urban Migration (Rural Exodus): It is simple the movement of people away from
the countryside (rural areas) to towns (urban areas) of a country. This movement is generally
the most important form of internal migration especially in countries experiencing
industrialization and technological progress. The intensity of rural exodus reached an
alarming proportion in the 20th century in the developing and is still very pronounced in these
areas nowadays due to the growth of transport media which has facilitated movement.
However, it has reached overwhelming proportions in both developed and developing
countries due to the growth of various modes of transport, which made displacement easy
and cheap.
Causes of Rural-Urban Migration
a. Push factors: These are factors which are present in the rural areas and trigger off or force
people out of them. They include:
 Rural Population pressure: This exists when there are so many people settled on a small
land area resulting in overcrowding. It may be brought about by high natural increase or
rampant in migration as a result of fertile soils for agriculture leading to high population
densities. This often leads to scarcity of land for cultivation and settlement thus the ultimate
solution is out migration to town. E.g Parts of the western highlands (Bamileke rural areas)
of Cameroon, the Kano settled zone in Northern Nigeria, etc.
 Mechanization of agriculture: This involves the use of machines in most of the farming
reduction in demand for agricultural labourers leading to a high rate of unemployment and
consequently triggers off rural exodus because the redundant labourers have no jobs and
hopes to find new jobs in towns.
 Traditional land tenure system: In most developing countries land inheritance has led to
land fragmentation, making farm sizes very small as opposed to land consolidation in
developed countries. Sizes of individual farms are reduced such that they are operated only at
a subsistence level or below and make it difficult to support a family. Thus the end result is
out migration into towns.
 Rural overpopulation: This is rampant in rural areas especially those of less developed
societies. Here population number exceeds resources resulting in low living standards. This
often results from rapid rural population growth, uneven distribution of agricultural land low
technology, etc. The effects are low incomes, low living standards, high rate of

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 unemployment, hunger, etc. As a result, there is usually rampant out migration from such
rural areas.
 Absolute poverty: In some rural societies, people may stay for many months without money
to meet up with their basic needs. This may result partly from the high unemployment, the
dependence on purely subsistence agriculture where very little or nothing is sold. The need
for this therefore triggers off or forces people to move out to the towns where they hope to
fine jobs and make some money.
 Food shortages: This may develop if the agricultural output is too low to support the
population of an area or if there is crop failure as a result of over cropping, blight, and
overgrazing, natural disasters. This often leads to widespread famine and thus triggers off a
lot of out migration from rural to urban areas.
 Lack of or limited social amenities: Amenities like electricity, schools, hospitals, housing
facilities, pipe borne water etc. are lacking or very limited in most rural areas especially those
of the developing world and often trigger off waves of movement from rural to urban areas.
 Repugnant traditions: Some rural areas in developing countries encourage traditions which
are extremely unpleasant e.g. forceful marriages, female circumcision, initiation into various
groups and witchcraft. This often forces people especially young adults out of the villages to
towns.
b. Pull Factors: These constitute the seductive amenities present in urban areas and lure people
from the rural areas. These factors are responsible for centripetal movements. They include:
 Availability of Employment avenues (Opportunities): Urban areas offer more and better
employment opportunities than the rural areas. This is because economic growth has
occurred predominantly in urban areas leading to the creation of many job opportunities.
Thus as a result of the presence of these job opportunities, many rural dwellers are attracted
to move into these towns with the hope of picking up one.
 High incomes and living standards: Generally, people in the urban areas have higher
incomes and a higher purchasing power than the rural population. This is mainly because
non-agricultural employments in urban areas are more paying than the purely agricultural
economies of rural areas. As a result of this, the living standards in urban areas are higher
therefore attracting many people from the rural areas.
 Presence of seductive amenities: Towns offer many seductive amenities which canbe
grouped into two categories (public amenities e.g educational facilities, electricity, pipe

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 borne water, etc and entertainment spots e.g nightclubs, cinema shows, theatre, etc). these
amenities attract many people from the rural areas, especially those who have a taste for a
refined and easy life.
 Wrong perception of urban areas: Generally the belief is that everything is wonderful in
urban areas especially when some friends or relatives return to the villages from town. This
perception attracts many people in the rural areas but when they migrate some may succeed
and others do not.
 Improvement in transport: Various modes of transport such as roads, railways, airports,
have been improved upon making movements attractive and easy. Transport development
has made known the opportunities present in urban areas and this has helped to increase the
number of new comers into towns.
Consequences (Effects) of Rural-Urban Migration
I. Economic Consequences
i. Rural Areas (Source or Origin or Departure Areas)
a. Positive consequences: They include;
 Relieve of the rural population pressure: Out migration to towns is a welcome relieve to
areas experiencing population pressure or overpopulation. When this happens, the land and
resources can therefore sustain the remaining population.
 Correction of labour surpluses and reduction of rural unemployment: If rural exodus
takes place and some active adults are left behind, it is possible for a reorganization of the
community to take place on a sounder basis and with a higher standards of living.
 Socio-economic development of rural areas: Financial support from urban areas promotes
socio-economic development in some rural areas. This is because those who migrate out are
able to work some money and then carry out investments like creating small and medium
size industries, contributing for projects like electricity, road, etc.
 Broadening of Horizon of rural people: Migrants returning from the urban areas may help
spread new ideas, techniques and innovations that would contribute in the socio-economic
development of the rural environment and broadening of the knowledge of rural inhabitants.
b. Negative consequences.

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  Labour shortages: There will be labour shortages and fall in agricultural output because the
active population has migrated to towns due to various attractions in towns, leaving behind
the young and old with little or no strength. Thus a fall in agricultural productivity.
 General Economic stagnation and idle resources: Out migration of people out of the rural
areas may also result in general economic stagnation and the unexploitation of resources in
affected rural areas. This is because little or no investments take place since there are acute
labour force shortages.
ii. Urban Areas (Destination)
a. Positive consequences
 Increased market potential: The high volume of in migrants helps to increase the market
potential in the urban areas. This is because the influx of people from the countryside
increases the population of the receiving areas.
 Development of informal sector: The influx of rural dwellers into towns often encourages
the development of informal sector of the economy. This is employment that is not formally
recognized and the workers in this sector generally have no fixed hours, no employment
benefits and their activities are untaxed.
 Supply of cheap labour: Urban areas have benefited from cheap man-power as a result of
the large numbers leaving the rural areas at little or no cost and which is ready to work at any
wage rate. This rural population is therefore an asset from which the dynamically expanding
urban areas have drawn much profit.
b. Negative consequences.
 High rate of unemployment: Generally, the influx of migrants from rural areas often leads
to acute unemployment. This is because the employment opportunities are too few relative to
the invading migrants and most of them are unskilled.
 Low living standards: As a result of the high rate of unemployment, standards of living are
very low with many people living below the poverty line and cannot afford most of their
needs.
II. Social Consequences
a. Rural Areas (Origin or Departure areas): The social consequences are largely negative.
They include;

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 There may be under-utilization of few social amenities available in some villages like health
facilities, entertainment spots, etc. This is because those strong members of the village
community who are supposed to utilize them have out migrated to towns
 It may also lead to broken homes or separation of families and sexual immorality given that
the attractions in towns may keep one partner away from the other permanently. This
eventually increases the number of divorces.
 The rampant out migration of mainly the youthful population may lead to a fall in school
enrolment figures and the closure of some schools in rural areas.
 In some cases, the massive movement of people out of the rural areas leads to a drastic
reduction in the population and as a result of the scanty population, the government may not
provide social amenities like pipe borne water, electricity, health and education.
b. Urban Areas (Destination)
Negative Consequences: They include;
o Accommodation problems: The influx of migrants into towns/cities has caused grave
housing shortages and difficulties. Usually there are more people than the available houses
can accommodate.
o Congestion and overcrowding: The movement of rural dwellers into towns also leads to
congestion and overcrowding. This is noticed on streets (given the narrow and poorly
maintained streets in some towns) and on social facilities. The case of Douala is clear.
o High crime wave: Such crimes may include stealing, drug abuse, rape, murder, gambling,
etc. These crimes in most cases are perpetuated by jobless migrants.
o Pollution: The influx of people from the rural areas increases water, land, air and noise
pollution in urban areas. This often results from poor waste disposal, dumping of industrial
toxic waste, etc.
o Prostitution is rampant and becomes a profitable trade and the incidence of the spread of
sexually transmitted diseases increases. This is mainly because of unemployment and
frustration.
On a positive note, rural-urban migration may lead to greater development and increase in
the provision of social services like sport/games, electricity, hospitals/clinics, etc. This is as a
result of the increase in urban population.
III. Demographic Consequences
a. Rural Areas (Origin or Departure areas)

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 There will be depopulation in these areas. This is because the number of people who move
out of rural areas is more than the number that comes in especially in the case of
economically developing countries. Thus a reduction in population of rural areas.
 Imbalance sex ratio: Generally, men are more prone to migration than women and it is not
uncommon for departure zones to become depopulated of their men folk while the reception
areas have an unfortunate lack of females. This makes the rural areas to be dominated by
females. However, this condition doesn’t remain the same for advanced countries as both
sexes are involved in migration.
 The age structure differs between the rural and urban areas as rural areas become dominated
by the young (0-15years) and the Aged (65+) given that most of the adult population has
moved to towns.
 There will be a drop in birth rate but death rate may remain high. The drop in birth rate is
mainly because most out migrants consists of the young adult population which is
biologically the most reproductive age group, leaving the children and aged who are
generally non-reproductive.
 Dependency ration in the departure areas will be high. This is because the few adults who
remain in the rural areas have to take care of the many aged people and children. Thus the
burden on them tends to increase.
b. Urban Areas (Destination)
 There will be an increase in the numerical strength of urban areas (i.e. total population) due
to the increasing influx of people from the rural areas contributing to the large population of
urban areas in developed and developing countries.
 Imbalance sex ratio: In most urban areas, the age structure demonstrates a majority of young
and early older adult population (15-44years). In this age group, there is an excess of male
over females despite the increasing number of female migrants to towns nowadays.
 The rate of population growth increases as many migrants are of childbearing ages. Birth
rates increase but death rates reduce resulting in rapid population growth especially in urban
areas of developing countries.

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Ways of Limiting or Reducing Rural-Urban Migration and Solving Problems Created.
a. Measures to Curb or Limit Rural-Urban Migration
 Provision of public utilities/amenities: The Cameroon government for instance has created
many schools and health centres in rural areas and has provided electricity to some rural
areas through her rural electrification programme.
 Encouragement of rural development projects: Governments and local authorities
encourage the development of rural projects like pipe borne water supply, construction of
bridges and roads, the setting up of industries, agricultural projects, etc. These provides
employment to rural inhabitants and so help in reducing the rate of out migration.
 Agricultural improvement: The governments of many countries have taken measures to
improve on agriculture given that it is the main economic activity in the rural areas. This has
been done by providing inputs like fertilizers, farm tools, pesticides/insecticides through
cooperatives or common initiative groups, etc.
 Improvement in transport infrastructure: Governments of many countries have improved
on roads radiating from urban to rural areas with many being tarred. This has made
accessibility into the rural areas easy and facilitates movement of people, goods and services
into these areas
 Provision of administrative services: Government administrative units/offices have been
extended to rural areas. This tendency of bringing administration closer to the rural dwellers
have helped to reduce the intensity of rural-urban migration.
b. Measures to solve problems created in towns
 Urban renewal: This is a policy designed to regenerate decayed urban areas such as the
inner city. This is done through better town planning and urban redevelopment programmes.
It involves slum clearance, redevelopment of road infrastructure and making streets wider,
etc.
 Decentralization of activities: Governments of many countries have encouraged the setting
up of new industries or the relocation of industries in the depressed or rural areas and
incentives for such relocation are which include tax concessions, loans at low interest rates,
etc are given.
 Creation of new towns: New towns, well planned with better housing and employment
opportunities have been created in parts of some countries to relieve overcrowding and

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 congestion in the major towns by taking in the overspill population. E.g. Abuja in Nigeria,
Brasilia in Brazil.
 Vertical construction of houses: To reduce the problem of housing and limited space in
some urban areas, there is the construction of storey buildings and skyscrapers. On the other
hand, the urban sprawl or the horizontal expansion of towns is often checked by the
establishment of Greenbelts e.g. around London, Birmingham, etc.
 Zonation of activities: In most towns, particular activities are placed in specific zones in
order to reduce overcrowding e.g. industrial zones, commercial zones. This exists in
countries where there is proper urban planning.
 More and better amenities like pipe borne water, electricity, hospitals, school, etc. are being
provided in an attempt to keep pace with the growing population of urban areas.
2. Rural-Rural Migration
This involves the movement of people from one rural area or village to another.
Causes of Rural-Rural migration
a. Rural population pressure: This is an important push factor which contributes to out
migration because high population density on land limits cultivable land area and thus people
who are unable to secure land for agriculture or settlement are forced to move out.
b. Infertile soil for agriculture: Given that agriculture is the mainstay of the rural areas,
infertile soils limit agricultural activities and therefore forces people out of such rural areas to
those with fertile soils.
c. Overpopulation: Rural overpopulation results from rapid population growth, which outstrips
resources. This is often indicated by the existence of high unemployment many landless
people, low incomes and living standards and possibly malnutrition and famine. Thus forcing
people out of such areas.
d. Intertribal wars: This mainly results from land disputes and have been responsible for
massive out movements from the affected areas to peaceful villages. They are common in the
North West region of Cameroon. E.g Bambili-Babanki, Balikumbat-Bafangi, Bali-Bawock,
etc.
e. Natural disasters: These may include floods, volcanic eruptions, toxic gas explosions which
may also cause out migration from one rural area to another. E.g the Mount Cameroon
eruption which affected the Bakingili village in South West (1999) and the Lake Nyos gas
explosion disaster (1986) in Wum.

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3. Urban-Rural Migration
This involves the movements of people from the urban to the rural areas. It is not as
widespread as rural-urban migration but more prominent in the developed countries than in
developing countries where the reverse movement is more common. This movement does not
involve only people but also economic activities move away from urban areas (often termed
counter urbanization).
Causes of Urban-Rural migration
a. Push Factors
Retirement: A majority of old people when retired from their jobs in town prefer to move
out to the rural areas where there is calm, quietness and they are closer to nature. They also
prefer rural areas because their small pensions can sustain them here, as cost of living is
generally lower.
High cost of living: In most urban areas cost of living which is reflected in house rents,
medical bills, cost of feeding, clothing, etc is high and the most affected are the unemployed
or those with low incomes or pension. The inability of such people to sustain a living forces
them to abandon the urban areas and move to the countryside.
High land value (cost of land): The increasing population in urban areas often results in
limited space and since the population needs land for settlement and other activities like
industries, there is scramble for the limited land thereby increasing the cost of land and forces
those who cannot afford it to move to rural areas.
b. Pull Factors
Low cost of living: The cost of living is generally lower in the rural areas and this attracts
many migrants especially the old who can afford a livelihood with their meager pensions or
incomes.
Agricultural attraction: Many people are attracted to the rural areas by the urge to carry out
agricultural activities given the abundant, more fertile and cheaper land in these areas.
Improvement in transport facilities: Improvement in roads, railways, and air transport
systems has formed an easy link between the urbanites and rural counterparts. Thus
movements from urban to rural areas are now easier and cheaper.
Factory/industrial development: Decentralisation of economic activities has led to the
development of industries, shopping centres, etc in the countryside. These provide
employment avenues and thus attract many people from the urban areas.

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 Abundant and cheap land: Enough land is available and at lower cost in rural areas and this
attracts population for all types of development i.e. residential, industrial, shopping centres,
moving away from the crowded urban areas.
Environmental attraction: The clean, calm and quiet environment of rural areas (closer to
nature) attracts many people from the urban areas. They move away from the hustles and
bustles of urban areas.
Consequences of Urban-Rural Migration
a. Urban Areas (Origin or Departure)
- Depopulation of urban areas i.e. the total population of urban areas reduces.
- Movement of people out of urban areas reduces the problems of congestion and
overcrowding on social amenities, housing problems.
- Helps to reduce the rate of unemployment.
b. Rural Areas (Destination)
- Villages become growth poles that is, new points of economic development. This is due to
the fact that returning migrants who have worked enough money in towns carry out
developmental projects like small and medium size industries, etc.
- Rural areas gain more labour from urban areas
- Distortion of natural beauty in rural areas as natural vegetation is destroyed for other
activities.
- Increasing cost of living in rural areas as the increasing number eventually exerts great
pressure on the resources of rural environments.
4. Intra-Urban Migration
This is the movement of people within the same urban area or from one part of the town to
another. This may be from the inner city to the suburbs or vice versa. A major factor of intra-
urban migration is place utility (which is a measure of attractiveness or unattractiveness of an
area, relative to alternative locations as perceived by the decision maker).
Factors (causes) of migration from the inner cities to the outer zones (suburbs) within
the same urban area.
a. Social Push – Push Factors
- In the inner city, housing conditions are poor as there is grossly insufficient amenities, high
density and overcrowding. On the other hand, modern and high quality houses with amenities
and low density prevails in the suburbs. All these attract migrants from the inner city.

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- Inner cities are characterized by congestion, noise and air pollution from traffic and
industries, high crime wave, etc. This triggers off movements towards the suburbs with
cleaner environments, lower crime rate and less vandalism.
- Insufficient and older services available to the population like schools and hospitals ethnic
and racial tension given the heterogeneous nature of such areas trigger out migration towards
the suburbs.
b. Economic Push – Pull factors.
- Narrow and unplanned roads with limited parking space have created transportation
difficulties with a lot of delays in the inner city. It is therefore a reason for people to move to
the suburbs where there is a well-planned road system with wider streets, close to motorways
and ring roads.
- Decline in older (traditional) secondary industries with congested sites in the inner city also
causes out migration given that this often results in much unemployment. While in the
suburbs, there has been the growth of modern industrial estates, footloose and service
industries, hypermarkets and regional shopping centres on cheaper and specious sites.
- High rate of unemployment, lesser skilled jobs in traditional industries triggers out migration
from the inner city. On the contrary, the lower rate of unemployment and often more skilled
jobs in newer high-tech industries attract migrants to suburbs.
- Land in the inner city is limited and expensive and thus, little or no space for parks and
individual gardens. This pushes migrants to the suburbs where there is abundant and cheap
land.
- Limited planning and investments, large scale redevelopment and clearance also contributes
to out migration of people from inner cities while better planning, public and private
investments and high incomes and wealth attract migrants to the suburbs.
Consequences.
There would be a decrease in the population of the inner cities but an increase in the outer
zones or suburbs.
The inner cities are often left with a higher proportion of low-income families, handicapped
people, the elderly, single-parent families, the unemployed, recent immigrants, people with
few skills and limited qualifications.

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 The suburbs attract people of middle age, married with a growing family, possessing higher
skills and qualification, earning higher salaries and capable of buying their own homes and
cars.
A lot development in the inner city often leads to destruction of natural beauty of this
countryside.
5. Inter – Urban (Urban to Urban) Migration
This involves movement from one urban area to another. This movement is often associated
with differences in the level of development between towns in a country. Movements are
usually from towns with lower level of socio-economic development to those with high
levels. E.g. Bamenda to Douala, Bertoua to Yaounde, etc.
Causes of Inter – Urban Migration
a. Push Factors
Economic Push Factors
 Movements away from departure town may be triggered by the inability to secure a job
(unemployment), absolute poverty, low wages and poor working conditions.
 Increasing cost of living in terms of cost of feeding, Housing (rents), social bills, etc have
also contributed to the displacement of people from one town to another.
 Overpopulation in some towns resulting in resource scarcity, unemployment, overcrowding
on amenities like schools, hospitals etc may also trigger off a lot of out migration to other
towns.
 Improvement in transport links between the departure and receiving towns.
Social Push Factors
Limited or inadequacy of social amenities and services like educational and medical
facilities, electricity, pipe borne water, good housing may also trigger off out migration from
the departure town.
b. Pull Factors
Economic Factors
 Availability of a wide range of job opportunities. In most countries, there are some towns
that are economically more developed than others possessing many industries, commercial
activities, a well-developed transport etc.
 Higher incomes, better working conditions and high living standards are also some economic
pull factors, which attract migrants from one town to another.

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Social Factors
 Availability of a variety and better amenities in one town like better medical and educational
facilities, pipe borne water, housing, etc may act as a pull factor to migrants from other
towns.
 Government policy of decentralization of socio-economic facilities, creation of new towns
and equipping them with better social amenities, transport development, industries, etc may
also attract migrants from other towns.
Consequences
 Overcrowding/congestion in receiving town
 Increasing cost of living
 Decrease population at departure town but increase in receiving towns.
 Economic backwardness in departure town and greater economic progress in the
economically more developed towns.
6. Commuting (Daily Migration)
Commuting is a regular daily movement of people from their residences to their work places and
back. The migrants involved are known as commuters. A commuter is therefore a person who
lives in one community and works in another.
Types of commuting
a. Rural – Urban: This is where the commuter lives in a small town or village and travels to
work in a larger town or city. Here, there is rarely much movement in the reverse direction.
The commuter village is sometimes referred to as a dormitory village or a suburbanized
village.
b. Intra – Urban: This is where people who live in the suburbs travel into the city centre for
work. This category now includes inhabitants of inner-city areas who have to make the
reverse journey to the edge of the city’s industrial estates and regional shopping centres.
c. High Class: This includes businessmen, administrators and intellectuals. Their research work
or the need for personal contacts requires certain residential conditions. They may therefore
either live in the capital or other large city though their work may lie in a distance and less
important place or live in a highly specialized locality and commute to the centre for their
business activities.

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 Reasons for Commuting
- Improvements in the various modes of transport –roads, railways have made travel easy and
reliable.
- The increase ownership of private cars facilitates easy movement of commuters and reduces
travelling time to city centres.
- Industrial and commercial development in the city centres exercise a powerful attraction for
labour so that in the morning, it exerts a centripetal force as commuters converge from all
directions while in the evening it exerts a centrifugal force as commuters radiate outwards
and homewards.
- Increase per capita income/high salaries that enable commuters to afford travelling costs.
- Inadequate and high cost of housing in urban areas. This forces people to look for cheaper
housing further away from their work places e.g Southeast England.
- The desire of many urban dwellers to live in rural or semi-rural environments. People feel
that their need to live in calm and cleaner environments outweighs the disadvantages of time
and cost of travel to work.
- Modern housing is a long way from either the older inner-city industrial areas or from the
C.B.D. Thus people prefer to stay in such areas of modern houses and commute regularly to
and from the city centre.
- The establishment of industrial estates and regional shopping centres further from the city
centre often results in a reverse movement where people move from the city centre to work in
such areas.
- There is now more flexible working hours that allow people to travel during non-rush hour
times.
- People prefer to stay in the suburbs to avoid the noise, congestion/overcrowding, pollution
and other socio-economic inconveniences associated with the city centres and the general
hustle and bustle in urban areas.
Effect or Consequences of Commuting.
a. Positive Consequences or Advantages of commuting.
 It helps to reduce the housing problems which characterize towns and cities.
 It enables great centres of economic activity to recruit sufficient manpower.

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 It permits people to carry out other activities e.g part time agriculture in rural areas given the
presence of cultivable land which help to subsidies their living.
 It reduces pressure on social services and amenities in urban areas.
 It leads to improvement in transport so as to enable easy movement of people.
 It encourages socio-economic development around suburbs as people stay here, work in the
inner city and then carry out development in these areas.
b. Negative Consequences or Disadvantages of Commuting.
 There is usually overcrowding/congestion in buses, trains and on roads during rush hours
(morning and afternoon). This may cause delay to work and a lot of inconveniences leading
to a fall in output in some cases.
 A considerable amount of time is wasted on these daily journeys which often results in
fatigue and even ill-health especially if the distances covered each day are long.
 Daily journeys to work represent a heavy economic change, which falls on the individual’s
purse.
 The high volume of traffic increases the risk of accidents. The incidence of vehicle accidents
has increased especially during rush hours.
 Commuting results in urban expansion. This urban sprawl encroaches on agricultural land,
thus reducing it and the outcome is a reduction in output.
 It has led to an increase in noise and air pollution due to sounds of numerous vehicles and the
emission of smoke from the exhaust pipes of vehicles.
C) International or External Migration
This includes all movements involving the crossing of national frontiers or it involves the
movement of people from one country to another or from one continent to another.
Characteristics of International Migration.
- It is relatively easier to obtain statistics on international migration at the entry or exit points
than internal migration, although illegal and clandestine migration makes records and
analysis very faulty in certain situations.
- International migration unlike internal movements affects the total population of a country
either by increasing at the receiving country or decreasing at the departure country.
- The general cost involved in international migration is higher than in internal movement i.e.
cost of transport, feeding, etc.

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- A lot of documents are required to be made before undertaking external migration as
compared to internal migration. Examples include passports, visas, health documents, etc.
- It difficult to assess the future of international migration given that migrations are the main
unknown component of population projections and estimates.
- Migrants involved in international migration have to face a totally different physical and
socio-economic environment. E.g. new climate, culture, institutions, political system etc.
Causes (Determinants) of International Migration
a. Economic Factors
Push Factors
 Economic backwardness often characterized by low level of industrial development, poor
transport development, mass unemployment, generalized poverty, low incomes and standards
of living have contributed to the movement of people out of such countries.
 Economic crises faced by countries also triggers movements into other countries. These
crises which most African countries experienced in the later part of the 20th century led to
rampant movements of people to neighbouring countries.
 Crop failure/famine. This is also a major reason which may force people to emigrate.
Drought, blight, floods and other negative environmental conditions often lead to crop failure
and therefore food shortages. This could trigger off wide scale emigration.
Pull Factors
 Economic opportunities may attract migrants from poor to rich countries. Some of the
economic opportunities at the destination that may attract migrants include the availability of
and better job opportunities in industries, transport, commercial activities etc, better working
conditions, higher wages and living standards.
 Presence of abundant and rich natural resources like minerals, forest wealth, and agricultural
products.
b. Demographic Factors
Push factors
 Overpopulation/population pressure: This has played a great role in emigration.
Overpopulation is a situation where there is an excess of population over potential and
utilized resources. Thus the available resources cannot sustain the population because of
much population pressure on these resources. This often results in unemployment, famine,

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 food shortages, landless labourers, etc. This has contributed to high rate of emigration. For
example Ethiopia, Kabylie area of Algeria, etc.
Pull factors
 Favourable immigration policies: The immigration policies of some countries have attracted
many migrants from other countries. In the 19th century, there was greater freedom of entry
than there is today. Examples of countries that practiced this are USA, Australia, New
Zealand, and France.
c. Political Factors
Push factors
 War: This has been responsible for massive movements across borders into other countries in
the past and present. When there is war in a country, many people escape for safety without
taking into consideration the distance into neighbouring peaceful countries. Such migrants
are termed refugees. For example civil war in Sudan, first and second world wars, etc.
 Forced international migration can also be triggered off because people in the country may
disagree with the ideology of the government in power or a totalitarian regime. Such people
may be persecuted and always threaten with arrest and detention and even killing. Many of
such people have been forced to emigrate and seek political asylum like refugees in other
countries.
 Dictatorial policies of government may generate racial tension in the country and trigger off
international movements. E.g. the apartheid policy in South Africa made the white minority
to discriminate against the black majority causing many black South Africans to forcefully
migrate to neighbouring countries like Botswana, Zimbabwe, etc.
Pull factors
 In peaceful countries where the freedom and lives of people are guaranteed, many people
would be attracted into such countries. For example USA, Canada Western Europe attract
many migrants from various parts of the world.
d. Religious Factors
Push factors
 Religious Intolerance: This aspect was responsible for the emigration of the Pilgrim Fathers
in 1620 from Britain to North America and the Huguenots from France to America. They
moved mainly for the preservation of their faith.

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 Religious conflicts between two religious groups may also trigger off international migration
e.g. the clashes between the Muslims and Hindus in Pakistan made about six million Hindus
to involuntarily migrate from Pakistan to India.
Pull factors
 Religious tolerance or freedom may act as a pull factor and attract many religious groups that
have suffered persecution in other countries. This is the case of most if not all western
democracies.
e. Environmental Factors
Push factors
 Harsh or adverse physical environmental conditions such as drought which often results in
crop failure and thus low agricultural output leading to widespread famine, may induce
forceful international movements. This is the case of the Sahel regions of Africa.
Pull factors
 Attractive environments free from natural disasters may act as a pull factor to migrants. Also
environments with a lot of tourist attractions may encourage international tourist movements.
The attractive mountain scenery, lake, waterfalls, rivers, etc in countries like Cameroon,
Switzerland, Kenya, etc.
Reasons for the increasing volume of international migration.
- The collapse of the economies of most LEDCs that has resulted in large-scale
unemployment. For example Africa and most Latin America and Asian countries. This large
scale unemployment has triggered off large volumes of migration into the MEDCs where
jobs are available.
- Increase wealth in the MEDCs. This makes them more attractive and guarantees the ability to
pay the cost of international migration by its citizens. In the LEDCs, the average incomes are
on the rise and so they can afford the cost of external movements.
- There has been an overall improvement in the means of transportation (that is road, railway,
air and water). This has made movement easier, cheaper and faster.
- Increase in global security. Even though sporadic terrorist attacks still occur in the world, the
world is now generally a safer place to work and move in than even before. This has
encouraged more movements between countries.

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- Globalization that has ensured the free circulation of businesses (trade) and their attendant
populations.
- The rise in specialized education. Most major schools for particular studies are located in
specific countries. Many nationals therefore leave their countries into these countries to
acquire this education.
- The development of efficient communication systems such as internet services and mobile
phones. This has increased the amount of information about destinations and thus
encouraging and increasing the number of international migrants.
- The widening of association of nations. Regional groupings as CEMAC, ECOWAS, and EU
are widening their membership with time and relaxing barriers to movements between its
member states. This has fostered the free movement of people between these nations.
- The growth of mass tourism. With the increase in incomes and improvements in the means of
movement, many more people stream to Southeast Asia, Latin America and East Africa for
leisure each year principally from economically developed countries.
Consequences of international migration.
a. Demographic consequences
1. Origin or Departure country
 The departure country or region will become depopulated, that is a reduction in the total
population as a result of emigration.
 The age-sex structure is affected. Usually there is an imbalance in the age composition and
sex ratio especially as such long distance migrations are both age and sex selective, males are
more prone to migration than females.
 Decrease in the rate of population growth as a result of a fall in birth rate. This is because a
majority of emigrants are young adults and therefore, those most likely to bear children.
 The age selective effects of emigration often results in an increase in the dependency ratio at
the origin. This is because the many children and the old who are left behind depend on a few
adults since most of the productive age group gas emigrated.
2. Receiving country
 Increase in the rate of population growth as a result of increase in birth rate given that most
immigrants are of the reproductive age group.

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 Age-sex imbalance. The receiving regions usually experience an increase in the young adult
age group dominated by males due to the age and sex selective effects of migration
especially over longer distances.
 The age-sex pyramids of reception areas are also affected. The pyramid on the adult male
side bulges indicating an increase in the proportion of this age/sex group.
 There may be a reduction in dependency ratio as most immigrants are adult males (active
population) who can work to support the other age groups.
b. Economic consequences
1. Origin/Departure country.
 Massive emigration often leads to a loss of the younger and active sector of the economy
resulting in a reduction or shortage of labour force. This may lead to a fall in productivity of
the land and industrial sectors.
 Reduction in unemployment. Emigration usually relieves the origin of labour surpluses and
reduces the problems of unemployment in regions suffering from it. This may stimulate the
economy and lead to socio-economic development and an improvement in living standards.
 When migrants return home, they may bring new skills, ideas, experience and innovations
that will aid in the socio-economic development of the economy.
 The economic effects of remittance sent home is also important. Many international migrants
maintain links with their country of origin.
2. Destination/Receiving country
 The massive influx of mostly young adults may provide a valuable source of labour which
increases the labour supply of the country.
 Tourist financial benefits may also help to improve on the balance of payment situation of
the receiving country.
 The market potential of recipient countries increases given the population increase. There is
more demand for gods and services especially as most migrants buy various items and send
to their home countries.
 The receiving countries may suffer from unemployment especially in countries where the
influx does not correspond with the available employment opportunities and migrants are
unskilled. This may further create an informal sector in the economy.
c. Socio-Cultural consequences

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1. Origin/Departure country.
 Emigration whether voluntary or involuntary often leads to the breaking up of deeply
cherished family and friendly ties and creating an imbalance within the community left
behind.
 Massive emigration may also lead to underutilization of social services/amenities like
schools, pipe borne water, electricity, etc if they have been provided.
 Emigration may lead to the loss of a significant proportion of the highly educated and skilled
population to other countries where better opportunities (employment, higher wages, etc) are
offered (Brain drain).
2. Destination/Receiving country
 Large scale immigrants bring pressure and even overcrowding on social services and
amenities of receiving countries like educational and medical facilities, water supply, etc.
This is a financial burden to the government.
 The receiving country may also benefit a significant proportion of highly skilled and
educated professional population like teachers, medical doctors, engineers, scientist. These
groups of people bring in new ideas, skills and innovations highly advantageous to the
economy.
 At the destination, immigration results in the mixing of races leading to the development of
multi-racial societies. E.g. USA, South America, etc
 The mixing of diverse races and cultures is a source of tension or friction in many countries
e.g. it has been one of the causes of racial discrimination and friction in countries like
Canada, USA, South Africa, etc.
 One of the most sensible social effects of international migration is the fact that some
immigrants are usually less law-abiding than residents. This however depends much upon
their integration and absorption into community life.
 The culture of the recipient country is affected. Immigrants contribute in changing the
original cultural practices of a people. European art, music, way of dressing, language,
literature, philosophy, ethics, feeding habits, etc have spread widely in the developing
countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America mainly because of European immigration into
these areas from historic times till date.

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D) Forced Migration (Refugeeism/Internally Displaced Persons – IDPs)
These are involuntary movements involving people who are forced by undesirable
circumstances to leave their country of origin to other countries. The term refugee comes
from the Latin word “fugere” meaning “to flee”. There are two categories of people under
this class;
 Externally Displaced persons: They are people who have been forced out of their countries
for political or religious reasons or by natural disasters. These therefore are refugees.
 Internally Displaced Persons: They are those who have been forced from their homes for
refugee-like reasons, but who remain within the borders of their own country. They are thus
not refugees because they are still under the jurisdiction of a government that might not want
international agencies to help them. They are found in Cameroon and many other countries.
Characteristics of Refugees.
 A majority of refugees are found in developing countries about four-fifth of them.
 Half of the world’s refugees are children of school age.
 Most adult refugees are females.
 Most of Africa’s refugees are rural to rural migrants.
 Refugees usually live in extreme poverty and lack of food, shelter, clothing, education and
medical care.
 They live in camps often characterized by water problems, poor waste disposal and poor
sanitary conditions.
 They rarely have citizenship and few (if any) civil, legal or basic human rights.
 Rapid spread of diseases in refugee’s camps with little or no medical attention.
Causes of Refugee/Internally Displaced Persons Movements.
a. Political factors: Political instability (wars, dictatorial governments) is a major cause of
refugee movements and has thus been responsible for the widespread displacement of people
from one country to another.
b. Natural disasters: Floods, landslides, volcanic eruptions, droughts, earthquakes/tsunamis are
natural disasters which have provoked refugee flows in areas where they occur and are
persistent. For instance floods in Maputo in Mozambique in the year 2000.

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c. Religious persecution/conflicts: This situation generates refugee flows. For instance
religious conflicts between Christians and Moslems in Sudan since the mid-1960s and in
2004/2005 led to the displacement of thousands of Sudanese to neighbouring countries.
d. Ethnic cleansing: This is the policy or practice of driving out of an area the people of one
race or religion by those of another. This has provoked a lot of refugee movements. For
example the violence and elimination of Albanians in Kosovo (in Yugoslavia) by Serbians in
1999.
e. Economic factors: The acute labour shortage in the sugar, cotton and tobacco plantations in
North and South America provoked the forceful movements of slaves from Africa to
America to work in these plantations.
f. Accidents: The Chernobyl nuclear disaster in 1986 in former USSR (present day CIS) which
was the result of a flawed reactor design that was operated with inadequately trained
personnel and the Bhopal chemical plant explosion in India sparked off massive refugee
movements as these accidents rendered thousands of people homeless.
Consequences of Refugee Movements
a. Departure country
 There would be depopulation. The massive out flow of people reduces the total population
and population pressure on resources. This helps to relieve the region/country of its
overpopulation problems.
 Loss of active population leading to a fall in labour force. This may lead to
underdevelopment, fall in productivity and GNP leading to low standards of living.
 Mass unemployment, food shortages, poverty especially in countries devastated by war.
 There may be some improvement in living standards as the massive outflow of population
reduces pressure on resources.
 A drop in the rate of population growth as many people of the reproductive age group move
out.
b. Receiving countries
 Increase in total population
 Creation of camps mostly in the outskirts of the country to accommodate the excess
population.

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 Overcrowding/congestion on social/public amenities like schools, hospitals, pipe borne water
as the development of these aspects fails to keep pace with the number of refugees.
 Food shortages which often lead to starvation, famine and deaths of many refugees.
 High unemployment and poverty resulting in high crime wave like stealing, prostitution, drug
addiction, gambling.
 Rapid spread of diseases like chicken pox, HIV/Aids especially in refugee camps.
 Increase urbanization and urban problems like pollution, poor waste disposal,
accommodation problems, etc.
 Living standards of refugees are very low given that they are unemployed and have to a large
extent depend on international humanitarian organisations for subsistence (food, drugs, etc.)
 A lot of malnutrition especially among infants. This is due to poor diet and inadequate food
supply resulting in high infant mortality in refugee camps.
 Age and sex imbalance – children and females dominate. The education of the children is
disturbed and there is overcrowding in schools.
Measures to Alleviate Refugee Problems
 Development of refugee camps: The settlement area for refugees is usually provided by the
government of the receiving country. On such land, group houses or refugee camps have
been developed to provide lodging facilities to the homeless refugees. Such houses are
constructed with aid from national government, international organisations like UNHCR,
UNICEF.
 Financial, material and moral support: This support is in the form of cash, food, clothing,
drugs, personnel and other basic needs. These are often provided by international
organization like UN through it agencies like FAO, humanitarian agencies like Red Cross,
etc.
 Providing solutions to reasons for movement: The provision of solutions to political,
famine, natural disaster problems (reasons for the original out flow of the refugees) have led
to the voluntary repatriation or return of refugees to their home countries.
 Development of projects: In order to help and re-integrate returnees, the UNHCR has
broaden its humanitarian assistance inside countries of origin by developing small scale
projects like in agriculture, small scale industries, etc aimed at meeting socio-economic needs

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 of the communities receiving large numbers of returnees and easing the resettlement of such
returnees.
 Peace keeping forces: This is prominent in politically unstable or war torn countries. In this
case, international organisations like UN, African Union and NATO send a number of
military personnel in such countries to keep peace. These forces are usually given by some
countries and they go under the banner of the UN.
E) Inter – Regional Migration
This is the movement of people from one region to another. This could be between regions
within the same country or between countries. There are two types of inter-regional
movements. They are;
 Colonizing migration: It takes place in regions which have not been inhabited for long but
provide good conditions for human habitation. These movements can be spontaneous or
planned. For example the movement of people into the Eastern region of Cameroon after
independence, the Westward movement in America in the Nineteenth century, etc.
 The general drifts of population: They are usually from the less favoured regions to more
favoured ones. i.e it could be movement of people from a region of declining economic
importance to a region of booming economic growth. For instance, movement from the
western highlands towards the coast, drifts from Far North and Adamawa to towns of the
Centre and Littoral regions of Cameroon.
Causes of Inter – Regional migration
a. Physical factors
1. Push factors.
 Regions with harsh climatic conditions like much cold or excessive heat, too wet or to dry
makes life difficult and forces people out of such areas. E.g the harsh climate of Far North
Russia.
 Out migration is also triggered by rugged (rough) relief and poor (infertile) soils which
makes human activities like agriculture, road construction, etc difficult and livelihood
precarious.
2. Pull factors
 Regions with favourable/equable climate, good relief, fertile soils and absence of natural
disasters are attractive to migrants and many would like to move to such areas.

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b. Economic factors
1. Push factors
 Unemployment i.e. limited opportunities in some parts of the country or region indicates that
poverty characterizes such regions and the people cannot meet up with their basic needs
leading to low living standards. Thus many people are therefore urged to move out.
 Over population. This often leads to low per capita income and low living standards,
malnutrition thus triggers off movements.
 Population pressure on land also forces people out of their area of origin to other regions as
there is limited land for agriculture and other activities.
 Poor prospects in agriculture and industry or industrial decline have been responsible for out
migration. This may be due to limited capital, labour and even raw materials.
2. Pull factors
 Availability of numerous employment opportunities, higher incomes/wages, better prospects
in agriculture and industry, lower cost of living and higher living standards, etc attracts
migrants from other regions. For example the movement of people into the centre and littoral
regions of Cameroon.
 Existence of rich mineral deposit which attract rapid inflow of population e.g. the influx of
migrants into the Shaba province of the Democratic Republic of Congo.
 Transport development is another encouraging factor of inter-regional migration. This is
because of the various transport modes like roads, railways, air making movements easier
and faster.
c. Social factors
1. Push factors
 The lack or insufficiency of social or public facilities in the departure area such as
educational facilities, medical facilities, facilitates movements of people out of their origins
to other places.
2. Pull factors
 The availability of these amenities in the receiving areas are attractive to migrants and thus
encourage movements into such areas.

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d. Political factors
1. Push factors
 Oppressive government policy of forced relocation as in the movement of Russians to Serbia
in the 1940s.
 Poor governance and repressive government measures which often results in riots, wars
leading to loss of life and property. This often forces people to move out of the affected
areas.
 Creation of new administrative units by the government or government policy of
decentralization where socio-economic opportunities move to depressed areas from
economically developed regions. When this takes place, workers may be transferred and they
are forced to migrate to such newly created administrative regions or districts.
 Some people migrate when they disagree with the political ideology of the government in
power.
2. Pull factors
 The existence of peace and freedom in particular regions or countries may act as a pull to
many migrants given that life and property is safe in such areas.
 Good governance often provides fertile ground for peace and progress and limits political
agitation and therefore attracts migrants/investments.
e. Religious factors
1. Push factors
 Religious persecution or intolerance forces religious groups concerned to migrate to other
areas where their religion can be practiced.
2. Pull factors.
 Religious freedom and tolerance will act as a pull factor and would encourage or attract
migrants into such areas.
Consequences of Inter – Regional migration.
Demographic consequences
a. At origin or departure
 Out movement here often leads to great loss of population especially the productive age
group resulting in a reduction in the population or depopulation.

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 It may also lead to a fall in fertility and growth rates given that a majority of the migrants are
in the reproductive age group.
 Age-sex imbalances are also visible effects.
 The population pyramid will show an indentation on the male side meaning loss through out
immigration given that males are more migratory.
At destination.
 There would be a reduction in dependency ratios given that most migrants are active and
productive.
 The age-sex pyramid would bulge on the male side showing a gain of young males.
 It may lead to increase fertility, especially when migrants are poorer and less skilled or
educated.
 Distorted age-sex structure given that mostly young adult males may dominate due to the age
and sex selective effects of migration.
b. Social consequences
At origin or departure
 Under-utilization of few amenities available.
 Limited provision of social services and amenities given the rampant out migration of people
and thus few people to use them.
 The origin is deprived of its intellectual population i.e. brain drain/outflow of skills which
may result in under development.
 Feedback of information and return of some migrants however loosens traditional social
structures and brings progress in the society through remittance.
At the destination.
 More social services and amenities would be provided since there is an increase in population
who need these facilities.
 May also result in a rich cultural mix in terms of language, traditions, inter-marriages,
feeding habits, etc.
 There would be housing and communication difficulties.
 There will be a boost in the intellectual and social and political life if migrants are educated
and thus bringing new ideas.

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 The influx of migrants results in a lot of social problems like congestion, overcrowding, land,
water, air pollution, etc.
Possible Remedies to Inter – Regional Migration.
- Industrial development.
- Provision of social services and amenities
- Resource exploitation
- Agricultural improvement

TOPIC: POPULATION GROWTH AND RELATION TO RESOURCES

USE/DEVELOPMENT

Lesson 16: Notion of Carrying Capacity

A) Meaning
The carrying capacity of an environment is the maximum potential number of people that the
resources of a particular area or environment can support. In other words, it is the level at which
the existing resources can sustain the expanding population.
B) Different ways of adjusting resources to carrying capacity
1. Instantaneous adjustment: here the rate of increase in population is unchanged until the
ceiling is reached. At this point (ceiling level), population growth suddenly stops and the
rate of increase becomes zero. This type of adjustment is very unlikely to occur in real life
and there is no evidence to support this from either human or animal populations.
2. Progressive or Gradual adjustment (the s-curve): Here population increase or growth
slows down gradually as it approaches the carrying capacity and then levels off when the
ceiling is finally reached. This situation is more realistic in life and occurs in most
developed countries where higher economic development and education have led to greater
birth control that slowed down the rate of population increase.
3. Progressive approximation or fluctuating gradual adjustment (the J-curve): In this
adjustment, the population rises and goes beyond or exceeds carrying capacity resulting in a
sudden check by such things like famine, war, diseases, birth control, etc. which causes a
fall in the total population. After some time, the population recovers and then fluctuates,
eventually settling down at the carrying capacity.

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Lesson 17: Concepts of Population and Resources
A) Overpopulation
I) Meaning: It occurs or exists when there is an excess of population over utilized or potential
resources. In other words, it is a situation in which available resources are unable to provide
the population with a commendable standard of living or it is where population numbers far
exceeds the supporting capacities of the available resources in low standards.
Types of over population
 Absolute overpopulation: It is a situation where there is a maximum exploitation and
utilization of resources, yet living standards remain low and there is no hope to transform
resources from stock. In other words, it occurs where the absolute limit of production has
been reached though living standards remain low. There is a very rare occurrence of this
type.
 Relative overpopulation: It is a situation wherein the population number is increasing faster
than the rate of resource development and present production is inadequate for the population
although there are chances for greater production. This type of overpopulation is very
common in countries like Bangladesh, Indonesia, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, etc.
II) Indicators of overpopulation.
 Massive out-migration or emigration: This occurs mainly as a result of the high population
pressure on limited resources leading to food shortages, starvation, unemployment, etc.
thereby causing people to move out of the regions.
 High rate of unemployment: In areas of overpopulation, the population numbers always
exceeds the available job opportunities. Thus the excess population would be unemployed.
 Low per capita income: This is because the population number may be too large for the
limited resources. Low per capita income may also result from mismanagement of the
resources, capital flight, unexploitation of resources and not only from overpopulation.
 Low average living standards: This is partly as a result of the low per capita income. It may
also result from the unexploitation of resources.
 High population density: This may indicate that there is overpopulation in a society but it
should be noted that it is not in all cases where high densities indicates overpopulation.
 Famine leading to hunger and malnutrition

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 High fertility, high but declining mortality resulting in rapid population growth and affecting
resources negatively.
 Low exchange rate
 Diminishing returns on factors of production
 Population pressure on resources.
 Increase landless labourers leading to high unemployment.
 Low purchasing power although with a large market potential.
III) Measurements of overpopulation
 Finding the per capita income
 Investigating the level of employment
 Existence of diminishing returns
 Finding out the volume and direction of migration i.e. whether it is out or in migration.
 Checking the life expectancy
 Measuring the population density
 Examining the changes in consumption pattern
 Noting the changes, which exists in terms of international trade?
IV) Causes of overpopulation
 Decline in demand for labour
 Increase in population
 A decline in available resources.
V) Consequences (See indicators above)

VI) Solutions or checks

a. Demographic checks
 Out migration should be encouraged while in-migration or immigration should be
discouraged. For example the overpopulation problem of Ireland, Britain and Italy in the 19th
century was relieved by massive emigration of people mainly to North America.
 Control population growth. This can be done by the limitation of birth rates through the
implementation of birth control methods as the use of contraceptives, legalization of
abortion, sterilization of and family planning.

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b. Economic checks
 Agricultural development: This involves measures aimed at increasing agricultural output.
These measures include; increasing cultivable land area, improved and increased yields,
hybridization, and search for new food sources.
 Industrial development: The establishment of industries in areas that have exclusively been
rural would help provide jobs to the large number of people and also process agricultural
produce, manufacture various farm chemicals and equipment like machines and other farm
inputs.
 International trade: Trade between countries should be strengthen or improved upon as it will
enable food exports to be possible from countries that produce surpluses to countries
deficient in food production.
 Finding more space: This has been done to create more space to accommodate the large
population numbers. There should be the vertical construction of houses e.g. storey buildings
or skyscrapers.
B) Under population
I) Meaning: It is a situation where there are far more resources in an area (e.g. food
production, energy and minerals), than can be used by the people currently living there. In
other words, it is when the population is too small to utilize fully its resources or where the
resources and development could support a large population than the current one without
lowering the living standards or increasing unemployment. It therefore exist in places where
the resources are still intact or yet unexploited and its most likely to occur in developed
countries. Examples of under populated countries are; Canada, New Zealand, Gabon, Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait and the Amazon basin.
Types of under population
 Absolute under population: This exists where population numbers are incapable of normal
demographic replacement or of adequate economic production. It is however very rare to find
this situation in the world given that population numbers may be increased by massive influx
(immigration) of people from other regions. The case of Australia, New Zealand, etc.
 Relative under population: This is more visible in the real world and it occurs where there
are far more resources in an area like food production, than can be used by the people living
there. For example, the case of Canada.

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II) Causes of under population
 Better diet, good sanitary and health care which ensures fewer deaths of children (low infant
mortality)
 High educational standards (or literacy level) create awareness of the advantages of small
families.
 Better social welfare system, thus less need for more children as insurance against old age.
 Better knowledge of birth control methods.
 Careful or judicious use of available resources.
III) Indicators of under population
a. In economically backward countries/regions
 Presence of vast untapped resources given the low technology to exploit them.
 Low per capita income and low living standards owing to the fact that the resources are
unexploited.
 Possible inflow of migrants with foreign technology to exploit resources from which the
home country of the migrant is the main beneficiary.
 Low socio-economic development. This is because in regions with few people, it is
uneconomic to provide good communication network, health, education and other facilities.
 Low Human Development Index (HDI).
b. In economically advanced countries/regions
 Luxurious average living standards given the high per capita income.
 Existence of untapped resources mainly because they are much and not because of low
technology.
 Wasteful usage of resources if not controlled
 There would exist a small population ratio to utilized resources.
 High rate of immigration
 High HDI e.g. Canada, Sweden.
IV) Measurements of under population (see measurements of overpopulation above)
V) Solutions/ checks to under population
 Immigration should be encouraged while emigration be discouraged.

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 In backward societies, under population may be resolved by improved medical facilities, diet
and declining mortality.
 Government may encourage high birth rate by prohibiting all forms of birth control
measures.
 Exportation of some of the resources to foreign countries deficient in them in the form of
foreign aid.
 Transfer of technology and personnel to enable exploitation of idle resources.
 Change in the agricultural system so as to stimulate agricultural expansion.
C) Optimum Population
a. Meaning: This is a population that achieves a given aim in the most satisfactory way. It is
however difficult to say but it lies somewhere in between under population and
overpopulation. Thus between the extremes of overpopulation and under population, there
exists optimum population.
Types of optimum population
 Economic optimum: It is the maximum population number which can inhabit a given region
enabling a reasonable or highest standard of living under given or specific technical and
economic conditions.
 Power optimum: This is the population which achieves the greatest level of production
above that which is required for its own subsistence. The power optimum is always higher
than the economic optimum as it requires government intervention as power represents are
collective aim which may take the form of enhancing development and increasing living
standards in the society.
 Optimum rhythm of growth: This is the level of growth that best utilizes the resources and
technology available. It is a dynamic concept whereby population growth responds to
substantial technological advances which often results in an increases in the carrying capacity
of countries and regions and thus increases in living standards.
b. Indicators of optimum population.
 Standards of living are usually averagely high with reference to diet, housing, health and
educational facilities, transport development, etc.
 Level of employment: A situation of optimum population often exhibits full employment i.e.
a maximum of 2% rate of unemployment.

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 Demographic structure: There is a fairly balanced demographic composition of age, sex and
occupational structure. Birth and death rates are low.
 Size of market is usually large with high purchasing power.
 There is the rational development and use of increasing resources (sustainable management
of resources.
 The area of cultivable land is relatively high with the use of a lot of agricultural inputs.
Factors influencing optimum population
a. Size of area: Generally if the geographical area is large, more resources would be found and
in such areas, the optimum population is likely to be attained. But where the size is small,
fewer resources would be found.
b. The geography of the area: Since resources may be abundant or scarce depending on the
optimum population would also vary. Thus in regions with abundant and exploited resources,
living standards would increase as opposed to regions with limited resources.
c. Stage of technological progress: With improvement in technology, more and more
resources can be discovered, exploited and thus optimum population can be achieved.
d. Quality of communication: With improvement in communication i.e. transport and
information technology, resources can easily move from one region or country to another.
Thus deficient regions would benefit from regions with surplus resources therefore
achievement of optimum population.
Optimum population as a dynamic concept.
The concept of optimum population is considered dynamic because it is not static but changes
over time and space in accordance with economic and social changes. These changes can either
be positive or negative thus leading to the achievement of optimum population or making it to
move towards overpopulation. The following aspects are responsible for this dynamism.
1. Changes in technology: Technological advances would obviously lead to the exploitation
and utilization of more resources of an area, giving rise to high per capita income and living
standards and would result in the establishment of a new higher equilibrium i.e. optimum
population. But where technology is stagnant or declines, resources are idle and remain
unexploited but the population may be increasing resulting in low per capita income and
standards of living which may change the situation from optimum to overpopulation.

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2. Changes in demographic characteristics/structure: Where birth rate increases and death
rate is low, the result is a rapid increase in the total population. When population increases, it
has negative effects on resources. Also, more less productive youths dominate leading to a
new lower optimum as the population number is more than the available resources. But when
birth rate is checked and it reduces, total population also reduces and more productive adults
tend to dominate leading to a new higher optimum.
3. Discovery of new resources: If new resources are discovered through scientific research,
this would increase the stock or quality of resources, replace old ones which are exhausted
and lead to the establishment of a new higher optimum population.
4. Trade relations: The opening of new trading opportunities like markets with other regions
obviously increases the amount of resources and would lead to a higher optimum. But in the
case where old established trading opportunities have been lost, it would lead to a lower
optimum.
5. Decline in resources: A decline in resources may be caused by environmental hazards like
floods, drought, wars, etc. When this happens, it may lead to a new lower optimum or a
change from optimum to overpopulation because these may cause great destruction on
resources leading to drastic reduction.
6. Changes in territorial boundaries: Territorial expansion may result in an increase in
resources. This is because the new land adds to the existing cultivable land and may contain
some resources which may increase stock of resources of the country in question and
obviously leads to the establishment of new higher optimum.

Lesson 18: Theories

A) General views on population and resources
The views about population growth are very diversified and important in the study of the
relationship between food or resources in general and population growth. These views have been
divided into three major categories as follows;
 Biological theories: These suggest that the influences on human population growth are
essentially the same as those regulating the growth in the numbers of plants and animals. It
has been argued for example that fertility diminishes and is regulated by population density.
The best example is the Malthusian theory.

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 Cultural theories: These suggest and hold that demographic growth is unique and emphasize
the importance of man’s reason and intellect in influencing his growth in numbers. The
declining birth rates in developed countries have been advanced as evidence of man’s ability
to control his growth in numbers.
 Economic theories: They emphasize the importance of economic factors especially the
demand for labour as being the main influences on growth rates, patterns of migration and
population distribution. The main proponents of the view are the Marxist-Leninist
economists.
B) Malthus and Boserup’s Theories.
1. The Malthusian theory.
The Reverend Robert Thomas Malthus (1766 – 1834) was a British Demographer and
Clergyman. He was the leading and strong supporter of the idea of reduction in population
growth, published his view in 1798 in a document titled “Essay on the principle of Population
Growth”. Together with a group of his supporter who comprised of protestants, conservatives,
environmentalists, Americans, individuals all believed that restriction of growth was a necessity
in order to maintain the standard of living of the individuals. They were called the Malthusians
otherwise known as pessimists. This theory was based on two principles
- That the population, when unobstructed or unchecked grows at a geometric or exponential
rate i.e. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32………etc. and tends to double every 25 years as was the case of
Britain at his time
- That the means of subsistence, that is food supply even under excellent conditions only
increases at an arithmetic rate i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6…..etc.
His Aims
His model was out to investigate on how population growing unchecked will affect food supply.
His assumptions
- That the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state i.e.
there is a universal tendency for the population to increase.
- That food is necessary for existence of man.
Malthus in an attempt to solve this equation, he suggested some private or preventive checks and
positive or destructive checks which will help curb or reduce growth.
a. Private or preventive checks: They are those methods of limiting population growth
voluntarily by man. They include;

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- Voluntary limitation of families through moral restraint (natural family planning)
- Abstinence from sex till marriage
- Encouragement of delayed or late marriages
- Celibacy (not getting married and having no sexual relationship) and chastity (the state of not
having sex with anyone until the responsibilities of marriage could be accepted, thus having
sex only with the person you are married to).
b. Positive or destructive checks: These were checks imposed by the environment and are
geared towards reducing the population size involuntarily through increase in death rate.
- Famine – which often results in starvation leading to an increase in deaths
- Diseases, wars, poverty, pests, plagues and epidemics, natural disasters, infanticide, all of
which help to raise death rates and lead to low life expectancy.
Strength and weaknesses
a. Strengths (Application today)
 It is on the basis of his principles that it is frequently advanced that foreign aid in developing
countries aggravates rather than relieves the problems of overpopulation. In line with
Malthus, population will increase to meet the improved level of subsistence.
 Other Neo-Malthusian groups advocate massive birth control programmes in order to slow
down rates of increase. Thus many developed regions have controlled birth rate because of
the dangers of overpopulation, are thus accepting Malthus view.
 It should be observed that in honour of Malthus that the concept of population ceiling that he
first used spurred up the development of an entire model on the carrying capacity of the
environment or population ceiling.
 The case of many developing countries experiencing overpopulation with insufficient food
supply to equal the increasing population is living under conditions predicted by Malthus.
b. Weaknesses or negative criticisms.
 The improvement in transport means allowed for more efficient trade between regions
making it possible and easier for food to be transported from areas of surplus to areas of
scarcity.
 Improvements in agricultural techniques particularly intensification in the developed
countries which accompanied the agrarian revolution made crop yield to more than doubled.
 New sources of food supply were also discovered in the seas and oceans. E.g fish resources

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 The industrial revolution helped to transform agricultural, mineral and other raw materials to
usable products which could sustain the growing population without a fall in living standards.
 The massive implementation of birth control measures especially in developed countries
greatly reduced the rate of population growth.
 High-density housing and cities have been built to solve the problem of shelter.
 New material resources were discovered in regions hardly known during the time of Malthus.
 The opening up of the New World (USA, Australia, New Zealand) and colonies not only
increased agricultural output but also provided an outlet for excess population in the form of
emigration thus reducing the population pressure on food resources in Europe.
2. Boserup’s Theory
Esther Boserup an optimist and a Danish economist developed her view about population growth
in 1965. Contrary to Malthus view, her she was a strong supporter of the idea of population
growth in line with that of Karl Marx. In her publication titled “the conditions of agricultural
growth” she suggested that in a purely subsistence society, an increase in population instead
stimulated agricultural production i.e. according to her, population growth enables agricultural
development to occur given that as the number of people increase, more food is needed to feed
them and so they have to develop techniques which would increase output. Hence necessity is
the mother of invention.
 Her investigations
- At the earliest stage, small families subsist through forest fallow associated with shifting
cultivation. Here mainly crude tools like digging sticks and axes are used.
- As population increases, the bush fallowing method is introduced with increasingly intense
cropping and the shortening of the fallow period. At this stage, hoes are use replacing the
digging sticks and manuring begins.
- Further population growth is followed by a short fallow multiple-cropping system yielding
more than one harvest a year. Here, the plough is used thus replacing the crude tools making
it the most intensive system of agriculture with weeding becoming more frequent and
manuring is fully introduced.
 Strengths or application today
- Since world war two, the general rapid increase in world population (baby boom) stimulated
great improvements in agriculture i.e. great efforts have been made to improve agriculture
and in particular to increase crop yield by a more intensive and efficient use of land.

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- Many countries where population is increasing or those facing population pressure have
undertaken agricultural development or improvement schemes or programs aimed at
revolutionizing agriculture and increasing output. This is because the increase in population
means increasing mouths to feed. E.g. green Revolution in Cameroon, Operation feed the
Nation in Nigeria, etc.
 Weaknesses or negative criticisms
- Boserup assumed that people knew of the techniques required by more intensive systems and
that when the population grew, they would be willing to adopt them. This is not necessarily
true because in most parts of developing countries new techniques are unknown and even
when they become known, many people are still unwilling to adopt them.
- She has also been criticized for describing agricultural systems simply in terms of intensity of
production. This is because different types of systems occur at a given intensity.
- Her thesis does not take into consideration other growth factors like migration which may
lead to a rapid increase in population and affect the amount of food supply.
- She did not foresee the disastrous effects of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes, etc
on agriculture which may lead to crop failure resulting in acute food shortage and negatively
affecting the growing population.
- She neglected the operation of the law of diminishing return that besets agricultural
production even when new techniques are used. When this sets in, it slows down agricultural
productivity so that it can no longer keep pace with population growth.
- Also, numerous bottlenecks and blueprints presented by governments especially in
developing countries slow down the application of new techniques where they are known.
 Similarities between Malthus and Boserup
- Boserup’s idea of population growth is similar to that of Malthus only in the short-run in that
population is growing more than food resources.
- Both views are tilted towards examining the relationship between population growth and the
rate of increase in food resources. Thus both compared and showed a complementarity of
ideas rather than an absolute negation of others ideas.
 Contrasts.
- Population does not decline in Boserup but it does at a certain point in Malthus.

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- To Boserup food resources grow more than population I the long run due to the adoption of
new techniques caused by population growth while Malthus says an increase in population
will instead bring about disaster if not checked as there will be food shortages.
- Malthus was a British demographer and developed his theory in the late 18th century that is
in 1789 while Boserup a Danish economist develop her theory I the 20th century that is in
- Malthus’s theory explains situations of overpopulation, whereas that of Boserup pertains to
situations of under population.
- To Boserup, food resources continue to expand and the gap between food and population
widens while in Malthus food resources drop and the gap narrows until where population
catches up with food resources and goes beyond.

FURTHER STUDY1: Population Change in Cameroon

A) Demographic characteristics: Evolution in numbers and growth rate, age-sex
distribution and population pyramid
B) Population distribution: Densities and their spatial variations with illustrations on a
map, factors of distribution in various regions (physical, human/economic, and historical)
C) Major migration trends: Inter-regional movements especially between highlands and
lowlands, and rural-urban movements (identify major pre and post-independence
migrations, causes and effects of these migrations at source and at destination)

GUIDED WORK 1: Project Based Learning; Watching and Analysing Population

 Visit the council or palace of your area and ask for the population of your quarter
 Ask some households in your neighbourhood where they come from
 Are they normal migrants or Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)
 Ask for reasons why they left their area of origin
 State reasons why they chose that locality
 What are the challenges they are facing living in that locality
 Suggest to them what can be done to improve on their living in the area
 What can be done in your area of origin to make you return there?

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