Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

[Link]/media/C8vgp6_UwAA1WaQ.jpg

Cole C. Pazar
B.A. Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder

October 2016 – February 2018

Cole C. Pazar (2018) Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Abstract

This investigation into chemically altering, and thus geologically changing the nature of a planetary

atmosphere and its surface provides new scientific predictions, insight, and numerical theories into the

feasibility of technologically inducing the habitability of other worlds. Innumerable permutations of

potential planetary evolution pathways exist due to large variations in the astrophysical, atmospheric, and

geologic properties of a given world, dictated by unique planetary formation, dynamics, and evolution.

Surface interactions that give rise to habitable climates are driven by geochemical reactions and

geomorphic processes that can act in feedbacks to either promote or decay the climactic habitability of a

planetary atmosphere and surface. Using the TerraGenesis smartphone application created by Alexander

Winn, I simulate and track 21 different technologically induced planetary engineering scenarios. I present

numerical-game simulation modeling of our solar system’s real terrestrial bodies: Mercury, Venus, Earth,

the Moon, and Mars, Jupiter’s moons: Io, Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, Saturn’s moons: Tethys, Dione,

Rhea, Titan, and Iapetus, Uranus’s moon Oberon, and Pluto. I test a range of four hypothetical exoplanets

to colonize: Bacchus, Pontus, Ragnarok, and Boreas. I also use the model on the exoplanet TRAPPIST-1d,

while considering this approach for other future exoplanet studies. Calculations in this application are taken

out with simple, coupled numerical rules, with model years into C.E., the Common Era. The user of this

application 'controls' the terraformation process by manipulating the temperature, atmospheric pressure,

oxygen content, sea level, and biomass, limited by economic resources and population. Technologically

induced terraforming in this numerical model produced all 21 tested habitable worlds, and reached stability

within 1,000–3,000 mission years. Through testing the efficacy of terraforming technologies to combat

modern climate change on the Earth, this report additionally shows that it is at least feasible to achieve

stable habitability on Earth before (or after) a global climate catastrophe; reversing the effects of modern

climate change may take on the order of 100–1,000 years. This paper also reviews and condenses the

current literature in the year 2018 on terraforming as well as recent developments and advancements.

Keywords: Terraforming, planetary engineering, geochemistry, astrobiology, astrophysics, climate change,

planetary evolution, atmospheric sciences, numerical analysis, planetary geology, smartphone application
development, software development, exoplanet geoscience, computer modeling, terraforming, comparative
planetology, numerical simulation, cryospheric science, geomorphology, and space exploration.

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Cole C. Pazar (2018) Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Table of Contents Page #

Abstract 2

1 Introduction and background 4

1.1 Planetary characteristics and nomenclature 6

1.2 Flow charts of main concepts 7
1.3 Dynamics of terraforming planetary bodies 8
1.4 Terraforming technologies and climate change 10
1.5 Planetary formation and geochemistry 14
1.6 Astrobiology and habitability 15

2 Terraformable worlds 19

2.1 Mars 19
2.2 Venus 25
2.3 Earth 26
2.4 Mercury, dwarf planets, and moons 27
2.5 Hypothetical worlds 28
2.6 Exoplanets 29

3 Planetary evolution pathways 32

4 TerraGenesis modeled data 35

4.1 Numerical-game model assumptions 35

4.2 Topographic and visual 37
4.3 Population 41
4.4 Temperature 42
4.5 Pressure 43
4.6 Oxygen 44
4.7 Sea level 45
4.8 Biomass 46

5 Analysis and interpretations 47

5.1 Population and economy 47

5.2 Geography and sea level 47
5.3 Temperature 48
5.4 Pressure 48
5.5 Oxygen 49
5.6 Biomass 49

6 Timescales and discussion 50

7 Economic considerations 51

8 Ethical considerations 52

8.1 Reversing Climate Change on Earth 54

References 58

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Chapter 1 – Introduction and background Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

[Link]/vi/xhXyVXU2r_I/[Link]

1 Introduction and background

The word terraforming literally translates to the ‘Earth-shaping’ of a planet, moon, or other celestial
body, which I define as the hypothetical process of deliberately altering the atmosphere, temperature,
surface topography, and ecology by technological means to artificially induce the habitability of another
world, and ultimately enabling life to flourish (e.g. Fogg 1995; Kahwaji and Ghantous 2011, McKay 2011).
The word terraforming was first coined by the science fiction writer Jack Williamson and can be defined as
a process by which a barren extraterrestrial planetary environment can be altered to one that is suited for
life (Hiscox and Fogg 2001). According to Moores and Melo (2003), terraforming is the intentional
application of anthropogenic forcing to a planetary environment in order to effect a desired climactic
change. Terraforming can also be thought of as creating an Earth-like world through planetary engineering
(Todd 2006). Based on the nature of climate change on Earth, we now have substantial evidence that the
environment and climate of a planet can be accidentally or deliberately altered on human timescales given
the right, or wrong, technological and economic circumstances (e.g. Cervantes et al., 2011; Fogg 1995;
Hiscox and Fogg 2001; Kahwaji and Ghantous 2011; McKay et al., 1999). The exact feasibility of creating
an unconstrained planetary environment that mimics the Earth system is however unknown. To clarify
further vocabulary, ecopoiesis, coined by McKay (2008), describes the initiation of a living, self-sustaining
ecosystem in a planetary environment (Todd 2006), while ecosynthesis refers to the development of an
ecosystem that includes succession, i.e. ecosystem maturation by the replacement of organisms (Todd
2006). Planetary biology is therefore made of four components: planetary protection, the search for life,
human life support, and ecopoiesis/terraforming (Todd 2006).

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Chapter 1 – Introduction and background Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Altering the conditions of the planet Venus was initially suggested by Carl Sagan in the journal
Science (Sagan 1961). The planetary engineering of Venus was imagined through a process of seeding its
atmosphere with algae, converting water, nitrogen and carbon dioxide into more complex organic
molecules (Sagan 1961). Removing CO2 from the atmosphere, and reducing its pressure would cool Venus
and reduce its greenhouse effect until surface temperatures reached near-habitable conditions, in the range
stable for liquid water: 273–373 K (e.g. Sagan 1961; Dyson 1989). The possibility of heating Mars and
accelerating the alteration of its atmosphere has been historically the most popular option for human
colonization in terms of its proximity to the Earth, and its technological feasibility (e.g. Cervantes et al.
2011; Hiscox and Fogg 2001; McKay et al. 1991; Sagan 1973a; 1973b; Zubrin and McKay 1997). Carl
Sagan was a proponent of planetary engineering of Mars in an article he published in the journal Icarus
(Sagan 1973a). NASA first used the term "planetary ecosynthesis" when they addressed the issue of
planetary engineering officially (Sagan 1973a), which concluded that it was indeed possible for Mars to
support life and be made into a habitable planetary ecosystem (e.g. Sagan 1973a; 1973b). Now with the
abundant evidence of ancient water and oceans on Mars (e.g. Fogg 1995; 1998; Hiscox and Fogg 2001;
McKay 1982; 1993; 2004; 2008) we know that it would be relatively simple to convert the red planet into
greens (biomass) and blues (water). The long timescales, ethical nature, logistics, politics, and economic
practicality of terraforming are heavily debated (e.g. Haqq-Misra 2012; Hickman 1999; McKay and Zubrin
2002; McMahon 2016; Zubrin 2001) and are discussed in the concluding chapters of this report.
This technical report shows that if we assume the technological capabilities and economic resources
are readily available, the ability of a spherical planetary body to be technologically transformed depends
mostly on its initial conditions of astrophysical, atmospheric, and geologic parameters. I use data derived
from model runs in the application TerraGenesis version 3.0+ (Winn 2017) to track the planetary
engineering of 21 terrestrial Earth-sized planets, exoplanets, and moons, until they reach habitable
conditions and complete the processes of colonization. In this case of technologically induced terraforming,
the dynamic model TerraGenesis allows us to control the planet's temperature, atmospheric pressure,
hydrologic–cryospheric cycle, and mimic the mining resources available to derive the evolution of each
planetary body on human timescales. I test how the varied initial conditions can change the average time it
takes to reach habitability and subsequent colonization. This research investigation aims to provide deeper
insight into the colonization of other worlds by considering the timescales, population growth,
technological complications, and the hydrologic–topographic changes involved to help humanity explore
the potential that exists on the life-less worlds of our solar system and beyond. I also consider what
exoplanets are possible for future colonization by humanity. The interdisciplinary approach to this report
includes methods from the scientific fields of geochemistry, geomechanics, geomorphology, astrobiology,
astrophysics, climate change, planetary formation and evolution, atmospheric sciences, numerical analysis,
planetary geology, smartphone application development, computer modeling, numerical simulations,
cryospheric science, comparative planetology, and exoplanet geoscience.

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Chapter 1 – Introduction and background Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

[Link] – artist’s rendition of Kepler 452b

[Link]

1.1 Planetary characteristics and nomenclature

What makes a planet or moon habitable for our definition of life (see Section 1.6) is a specific set of
qualities and characteristics, which differ that celestial object from other bodies. Narrowing down these
qualities to their basal representations and interconnections, we can see there are three main groups or
categories through which these parameters can be sorted: astrophysical, atmospheric, and geologic. Each of
these categories has numerous characteristics that affect the state of a planet’s interior, surface, and
atmosphere. Table 1 below shows the various parameters associated with each general category.

Table 1
Atmospheric Astrophysical Geologic
Pressure Equilibrium temperature Activity, volcanism, tectonics
Structure Planet composition Structure (surface and interior)
Temperature Planet size and gravity Geography (distributions)
Scale height Planet mass and density Hydrology and cryosphere
Thermal gradient Magnetic field strength Albedo and emissivity
Weather and climate Stellar age, type, radiation Radiogenic heat flow
Equilibrium (loss/gain) Rotation speed / day length Mass, size, gravity (geoid)
Size and total mass Orbital period / velocity Composition, density
Carbon/oxygen cycles Orbital size (radius) Geomorphic processes
Nitrogen cycles Orbital eccentricity Economic resources
Biosphere cycles Tides and resonances Geochemistry
Composition Impactor flux Biosphere

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Chapter 1 – Introduction and background Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

1.2 Flow charts of main concepts

The diagrams below show the connections between key parameters (from Table 1) in planetary
engineering. I consider the most important parameters to be biomass, oxygen, temperature, water and ice,
atmospheric structure, pressure, and composition, geologic structure, and geologic activity. The positive
and negative feedbacks are not explicitly listed in these diagrams. Each directional arrow is a coupling of
two related parameters. A single-directional
arrow leaving the parameter means only one
affects the other, while a bi-directional arrow
denotes a coupling where both parameters
affect each other (equally or unequally). You
can think of the arrows as meaning that one is
dependent on the other, or that one affects the
other arrow. Figure 1A shows the simple
coupling of changing temperature, oxygen,
biomass, and total water content vs. total ice
content. Each parameter affects one another
in this flow chart. If you change one
parameter, it may effect the others ability to
retain a state of equilibrium. Near steady-state
conditions are an end goal of such engineered
planetary climates. These conditions are
largely described by the parameters in the
second flow chart (Figure 1B) with categories
discussed before represented as the rows. It is
important to recognize that all of the connecting arrows initially emerge from the astrophysical parameters.
Figure 1B shows us that the cryosphere and hydrology are coupled with geographic distribution and
geomorphic processes, which eventually lead to each unique planetary landscape. From this we can see that
the initial conditions of astrophysical parameters are the fundamental quantities that dictate planetary
formation, dynamics, and evolution.
These couplings and groupings help us to better understand the interconnections between different
planetary atmosphere-surface-interior interactions. Although the physics of these connections have largely
been explored and are developed, the exact chemical, physical, and biological recipe can lead to planets
that are well outside of the human realm of imagination. A given planetary surface is the product of a
complex history dictated initially by its astrophysical parameters, and later by atmospheric, geologic, and
potentially biologic processes. These categories/variables are what I consider the fundamental parameters
of planetary formation and evolution. From the quantities in this report, we are most interested in modeling
the evolution of planetary population, total biomass, pressure, oxygen, temperature, and water level.

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Chapter 1 – Introduction and background Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

1.3 Dynamics of terraforming planetary bodies

The combination of complex physics, chemistry, and geology of planetary surfaces dictates the
specific environmental conditions of that surface and its atmosphere. This is a multi-component system that
is strongly inter-coupled with each individual component – that is: one depends on the others and/or they
all affect one another (as seen in the flow chart arrows above in Section 1.2). These dynamics can be
defined quantitatively with mathematical equations and physical relationships, and more qualitatively with
theoretical graph predictions. The shape and mathematics of a growing global population (N) as a function
of time (t), with an initial population (N0), a growth rate (rG), and a carrying capacity (C) is:

∂N
= rG N C
∂t N ∂N ⎛C − N ⎞
t and = rG N ⎜ ⎟ N
∴ t ∂t ⎝ N ⎠
t
N(t) = N 0 exp ( rG ⋅ t )

The dotted lines in the first graph are varying growth rate ranges. The second graph is population growth
with a capacity (dotted), and uncapped population growth (dotted). Following these mathematics, biomass
growth and economic growth both follow the same form of the exponential equation, written as:

K
∂BT ⎛ K − BT ⎞
= rB BT ⎜ ⎟ BT
∂t ⎝ BT ⎠
t
10,000 years
Where K is the biomass capacity (proportional with planet size), dictated by surface area and chemical
recycling rates. The dotted lines give various growth rate values and temporal scales for theoretical
planetary bodies. Total biomass (BT) is given a specified growth rate (rB), and the economic growth (E) as a
function of time (t) is simply proportional to the population growth as a function of time equation:

E(t) ∝ N (t) ; geologic and energy rescources E

0 t
10,000 years
These fundamental mathematical relationships can be found in nature, however, from planet-to-planet can
vary in both magnitudes and growth rates. The above is what we will assume for economic growth and
resource availability. The dotted gray line is an economic-energy production threshold for a civilization to
reach. Temperature and pressure are of course a strongly coupled system, important to planetary dynamics.
Dynamics for planetary temperature (T) are given below, and described further on the next page:
hot planet
1/4
⎡ 2⎤
(1− α ) 4 ⎛ RSUN ⎞ ⎥ overshoot
1/4
⎡ (1− α ) ⎤
TEQ = ⎢ T SUN ⎜ ⎟ TS ≈ ⎢ FS + (19.5 + 20.4FS ) pCO 21/2
⎢⎣ 4 ⎝ RORB ⎠ ⎥⎦ ⎣ 4εσ S O ⎥⎦ T
delayed
T (t) ∝ pGHG(t) ; eccentricity ; obliquity ; tidal forcing t
5,000 10,000 years

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Chapter 1 – Introduction and background Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Where TEQ is the planetary equilibrium temperature, and TS is the greenhouse-corrected surface temperature
including typical constants for emissivity, albedo, orbital radius, planetary radius, stellar size, and flux. The
levels of greenhouse gasses and anthropogenic energy balance change of a planet are grouped into the
parameter of planetary temperature. The dynamics for pressure (P) involves the height above the surface
(z), surface pressure at z = 0 (P0), and the scale height (z*), determined by the planets average temperature
(T), and the Boltzmann constant (k), divided by gravity (g) and average atmospheric molecular mass (m).

P(z) = P0 exp (−z / z* ) ; z* = kT / mg

P
P(t) ≈ E R ⋅ t (artifical emission rate)
100,000 t
P⋅A Pa 10,000 years
MT ≈
g
0
To find the total atmospheric mass (MT), you need the surface pressure (P) times the surface area of the
planet (A), divided by the gravitational acceleration of the planet (g). The pressure as a function of time
depends on the technological ability to produce artificial gasses, at an emission rate of ER. Partial pressure
of pO2 (or pCO2) follows a similar trend, but can have instabilities upon initial atmospheric genesis due to
surface geochemistry and biomass-related couplings and interactions:

C + O 2 ⇔ CO 2 ; CO 2 + 2H 2 O ⇔ 2O 2 + CH 4 (biomass coupling)
pO2
2Al2Si 2 O8 + 2CO 2 + 4H 2 O ⇔ 2CaCO3 + Si 4O10 Al4 (OH)8
∴ CO 2 + CaSiO3 ⇒ SiO 2 + CaCO3 t
10,000 years

This graph of oxygen as a function of time could also start above the steady state line, and be forced into a
state of less total oxygen; required on theoretical worlds Boreas and the third world of TRAPPIST-1,
Huanca. Sea level (SL) is strongly coupled with temperature (T) and total water content (WT). The shape of
the sea level surface and total depth varies spatially across a planetary surface. Differences in continental
land distribution, topographic features, and the gravity field drive the hydrology and groundwater storage.

Z SL ∝ geography, geoid, and total water as a function of time

ZSL WT = wI + wO + wL + wG total water summation

0 Z(t) = M! ⋅ t − F! ⋅ t + R! ⋅ t − L! ⋅ t where M! , F! ∝ T (t)

t
10,000 years
Where the total amount of water in the system is the ice (wI) plus oceans (wO) plus land-water (wL) plus
groundwater (wg). The average elevation of the water (z) as a function of time (t) is simply the melt rate
(m) minus the freeze (f) rate, plus net loss rate (L) and gain rate (R) to and from the planetary system.
The mathematics and validity of the physics is in what we expect to see in the model date, and many
of these graphs are simply initial conditions, perturbed by a forcing function that pushes the quantities into
steady state. These PDE’s can all be effectively classified as damped over time or as a damped exponential
over time. Each one has many permutations of different forcings toward and away from steady state, and
that is what makes accurate and detailed planetary modeling so difficult and numerically time-consuming.

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Chapter 1 – Introduction and background Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

[Link]
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1.4 Terraforming technologies and climate change

Theoretical technologies and modern technologies are the two different groups of terraforming or
planetary engineering related technology. For our theoretical modeling of the evolution and feasibility of
terraforming a planet or moon, I assume that the necessary technology is both acquired and used, without
limitation of recourses, and that it follows the economic growth curve from before that is based ultimately
on population growth. Every planet in the TerraGenesis application has a finite amount of resources, from
which the economy is derived. After colonization, infinite clean energy (fusion) is assumed and the
economic growth and population growth follow the same rate. If you assume a much more rigorous
approach, the feasibility of global planetary engineering will remain plausible, but the timescales may be
lengthened. Planetary engineering is the application of technology for the purpose of influencing the global
properties of a planet, while geoengineering is planetary engineering applied specifically to Earth, by
affecting the greenhouse effect, atmospheric composition, solar insolation, or impact flux (Sagan 1973).
Terraforming will eventually be facilitated through a mixture of these types of mega-scale engineering and
biological planetary engineering technologies. The end goal is specifically directed at enhancing the
capacity of an extraterrestrial planetary environment to achieve habitability and creating an open planetary
ecosystem that is capable of self-regulation (e.g. McKay 2008).
On the other hand, paraterraforming is engineering that involves the construction of a large-scale
habitable enclosure, like the Biosphere 2 experiment here on Earth, a closed-ecosystem environment in a
dome-structure (Taylor 1992). Some proposed terraforming methods include creating orbital mirrors
(Figure 2 on the next page) that will reflect sunlight and heat the desired planet’s surface, greenhouse gas-
producing factories to trap solar radiation, and importing volatiles through asteroid or comet impacts to
create volatile release (Early 1989; Zubrin and McKay 1997; Clacey et al. 2005). Other viable technologies
suggested by the aforementioned authors include artificial super greenhouse gasses, albedo reduction, and
biological seeding. Freitas (1985) suggests that a machine self-replicating systems (SRS) could robotically

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Chapter 1 – Introduction and background Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

induce the habitability of a world. Terraforming via SRS involves planting a small "seed" unit near the
surface of the body to be altered, which self-replicates into a megascale factory complex via automated
resource extraction, capable of permanent planet modification (Freitas 1985).
Climate change on Earth suggests that other planets might experience similar runaway effects
associated to rising temperatures and ecosystem overexploitation, leading to catastrophic shifts on short
time scales (e.g. Sole et al. 2015). Remediation scenarios capable of counterbalancing these effects involve
geoengineering, sustainable practices, and carbon sequestration, but may not be enough to achieve the
desired restoration of safe boundaries (Sole et al. 2015). Synthetic organisms with the appropriate
engineering design could be used to safely prevent declines in some stressed ecosystems and help by
improving carbon sequestration (Sole et al. 2015). The implications of this study reveal that testing this
designed organisms can be achieved by using controlled bioreactor models and accurate computational
models including different scales – from genetics, metabolic pathways, to population dynamics.
Solar mirrors (i.e. Figure 2) have been proposed to vaporize portions of the Martian regolith,
liberating trapped volatiles including O2, N2, CO2 and H2O (Birch 1992), and then it would be ready and
stable to complete atmospheric changes by introducing Figure 2
photosynthesis. Zubrin and McCay (1997) believe that only
by initiating a certain change process of global warming,
for instance in the context of Mars that requires a 4ºC
increase in temperature to activate a global warming effect,
we would be able to trigger a snow-ball effect global
warming phenomenon. This would be achieved by placing
giant space mirror in orbit (Figure 2) built with the most up
to date materials in order to achieve the best efficiency in
relation to the weight (Zubrin and McCay 1997). It would require mirrors with a radius of ~25 km and a
weight of ~2x105 tons each. Although this is difficult, it remains theoretically feasible (e.g. Zubrin and
McCay 1997). New technologies that need further research in the future are a tool to evaluate terrestrial
planets interior structure (i.e. Luther et al. 2010), key to future exploration and classification of exoplanets.
Over the past 30 years the concept of planetary engineering, more popularly known as terraforming,
has moved from the arena of science fiction towards serious scientific attempts to determine its future
practicality (e.g. Hiscox and Fogg 2001). Humans have deliberately caused an increase in the mean global
surface temperature of between 0.5 and 1.0ºC since pre-industrial times due to our emissions, so it is clearly
possible to technologically alter the climate system (e.g. Hiscox and Fogg 2001). Fogg (1995) also talks
about other potential technologies such as nuclear mining and solar heating via orbital mirrors. Another
technology, ecopoiesis, produces an anaerobic biosphere suitable for bacteria and primitive plants (Fogg
1995). A major hurdle to this is like on Earth, recycling of atmosphere, water, wastes, and the supply of
food is largely an automatic process (Fogg 1995), and therefore running the life support system required to
sustain an artificial ecosystem is now a task similar to that of civilized terrestrial agriculture.

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Chapter 1 – Introduction and background Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Carbon sequestration plants are the ideal terraforming technology that needs more research – being
that our home planet Earth is being deliberately heated by CO2 due to our own ignorance and comfort. If
we are able to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, we are likely able to slow, or even stop, the
heating of our atmosphere. Such technology is not limited to removal, but we could also add a gas if
necessary. The ideal version of how to power these carbon-sequestration plants is with solar (clean lithium
battery backup), wind, nuclear (fusion one day), and geothermal (oil-reclaimed borehole) energy sources.
The hurdle is to separate CO2 from N2, Ar, and other trace gasses. Mineral carbonation is a possible
technique for the long-term storage of CO2, and the basic geochemical reactions for this can go as follows:
CaO + CO 2 ⇔ CaCO3
CaSiO3 + CO 2 ⇔ CaCO3 + SiO2
2MgO + CaCO3 + CO 2 ⇔ CaMg(CO3 )
2Al2Si 2 O8 + 2CO 2 + 4H 2 O ⇔ 2CaCO3 + Si 4O10 Al4 (OH)8
Humans add about 7.5 GtC/year in total to the Earth system and it is simply spread between reservoir
components: atmosphere [3], forest regrowth [0.5], fertilization [2], and oceanic uptake [2] (IPCC 1995).
So for steady state, we would have to remove 7.5 GtC/year from the atmosphere and into rocks, such as
carbonates to make new cement and building foundations.
Figure 3
Actual proposals from McKay and Zubrin (2002)
for the system process of mineral carbonation are given to
the right in Figure 3. It really is a very common idea in
the field of geoengineering is to inject CO2 from the
atmosphere into a reservoir, whether underground or in
the ocean (Keitha et al. 2009). Anthropogenic activities
have led to substantial increases in CO2, contributing to
heightened concerns of global warming, and in the last
decade alone CO2 emissions increased by 2.0 ppm/yr
globally (Mohammad 2012). Net increase in the
concentration of CO2 has been steadily increasing, shown
by at the station on Mauna Loa in Hawaii (NOAA 2014).
CO2 capture and sequestration has been recognized as a
promising solution to mitigate CO2 emissions from fossil
fuel based power. Typical techniques for carbon capture include post-combustion capture, pre-combustion
capture, and oxy-combustion capture, which are under active research globally (Mohammad 2012). Scaling
of a project of this size with present day technologies would lead to a reduction in the net amount of CO2
captured due to offset by emissions. In the coming decades, we are likely to see a surplus in innovative
energy engineering – for example, scientists from the University of Bristol Cabot Institute recently
produced a diamond battery that generates electricity and is made from up cycled radioactive waste
(Weforum 2017). Ultimately, to achieve the goals of sequestration, we would need globally distributed
renewably powered sequestration plants, capable of net removal from the atmosphere.

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Chapter 1 – Introduction and background Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

The potential for carbon sequestration projects to succeed is unknown. However, using a sustainable
systems approach, I have devised the following engineering flow chart (Figure 4). The impressive speed at
which humanity has grown technologically and industrially in the past ~100 years has led us to a
catastrophic situation, if left unresolved, that will extremely alter the planetary biosphere and global
planetary climate conditions will become unsuitable for natural human life. This planetary engineering
solution would be initiated through globally funded mega-scale engineering projects: ~15 renewably
powered greenhouse gas sequestration plants, held in a self-sustaining cycle.

Figure 4

Ultimately, this method aims to buy humanity enough time to solve enough problems to significantly
reduce our emissions. Terraforming theory of this scale requires fundamentally understanding how planets
form, evolve, and can be changed through manipulation of their various essential parameters.
.

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1.5 Planetary formation and geochemistry
Solar systems are derived from Figure 5
molecular clouds (i.e. Figure 6), regions of
the interstellar medium with sufficient gas
densities to allow molecule formation (Frank
2014). When the internal outward pressure
of a region of the cloud fails to counter
balance its gravitational pull, that segment
will collapse under its own mass (Frank
2014). By the conservation of angular
momentum, it forms a rotating circumstellar
disk around the protostar (Frank 2014). Dust
grains then gravitationally clump together to
form increasingly large particles, eventually forming planets through a snowball-effect process (Frank
2014). For our solar system, this process began 4,568.5 ± 0.5 Ma, as recorded in the oldest components of
the calcium aluminum-rich inclusions (CAI’s) found in chondritic meteorites (Frank 2014). Figure 5 shows
total mass delivered by three main impact events in the early-Earth history for which there are still records
(Frank 2014). Figure 6 shows the condensation process of terrestrial-gas world planetary system formation.
These three events dominated the mass addition to the early Earth. These events could have been
potentially catastrophic to any developing life because even if it was
Figure 6
one impactor or multiple, it is clear that the iteration of life from
which we originate must have arisen no earlier than the Late Veneer
(Frank 2014). The Late Veneer was the last recorded impact event
capable of melting the Earth’s crust—and extinguishing any extant
life (Frank 2014). These mass-delivering impacts likely provided all
of the necessary hydrocarbon compounds required for primordial life
to emerge, as well as un-quantified periods, probably coinciding with
the Late Veneer and the LHB, of extensive water delivery from
comets from beyond the frost-line during formation.
This goes to show how it is generally accepted that silicate-
metal (‘rocky’) planet formation relies on coagulation from a mixture
of sub-Mars sized planetary embryos and (smaller) planetesimals that
dynamically emerge from the evolving circumsolar disc in the first
few million years of our Solar System (Brasser et al. 2016). Once the
planets have, for the most part, assembled after a giant impact phase,
they continue to be bombarded by a multitude of planetesimals left
over from accretion (Brasser et al. 2016). The dynamically and
geochemically self-consistent scenario from Brasser et al. (2016)

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Chapter 1 – Introduction and background Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

requires that future N-body simulations of rocky planet formation either directly incorporate collisional
grinding or rely on pebble accretion. For this analysis, I assume that other planets in their protostellar disc
form in a similar fashion to the accepted formation history of the planets of our solar system. This includes
the assumptions that exoplanetary systems will mostly only vary in their metallicity, host star type, number
of planets, and total mass of the disc. Future analysis of the connections between exoplanet atmospheres
and their subsequent geologic processes will teach us a wealth of other new physics, chemistry, and
dynamics involved in forming planetary atmospheres, surfaces, and interiors.

[Link]/7195/i/2009/144/9/8/terraforming_wallpaper_by_earzy88.jpg

1.6 Astrobiology and habitability

To determine the basic general definition of life, I turn to what I have learned from my previous
research advisor Dr. Stephen J Mojzsis and from Dr. Carl Sagan in their life’s work. For the context of this
research, I consider life to be defined as a self-contained chemical system that is capable of undergoing
Darwinian evolution over time. Darwinian evolution in this case is considered to be the process of change
in life in response to natural selection pressures. Albert Branscomb once said: “life is not a means of
aggregating ‘building blocks’, but instead is concerned with developing nanoengines (not mere catalysts)
that can couple thermodynamically opposed processes, in order to create one disequilibrium at the expense
of dissipating another.” For this technical report, I consider the 5 definitions for life to be:
1. physiological – growth and development, response to environment
2. thermodynamic – order (decreasing entropy)
3. biochemical – reproduction (distinct chemistry) DNA
4. genetic definition – evolutionary adaptation (evolution by natural selection)
5. metabolic – energy utilization

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Chapter 1 – Introduction and background Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Metabolic life can also be classified into: photoheterotrough, chemoautotrough, photoautotrough

(plants), and chemoheterotrough (animals). Specific requirements for life include: sunlight or chemical
energy (e.g. H2 + CO2 ⇔ CH4 + H2O), carbon, liquid water, and other elements such as N, P, and S (McKay
et al., 1991). Chemically, the requirements for life break down to the abundant elements required for life’s
chemical reactions: S, P, O, N, C, and H. Any terrestrial world post-terraformation would be required to be
able to chemically recirculate these elements into any artificial biosphere. Organic chemical building
blocks necessary for the origin of life can be obtained by: 1) sunlight energy and lightning can facilitate the
generation of complex organic molecules and amino acid, 2) delivery directly from comets, asteroids, and
interplanetary dust, and/or 3) deep-sea vents can synthesize organic molecules in the presence of water and
minerals. Another classification scheme to be aware of is called the seven pillars of life: 1) program -
genetic blueprint, 2) improvisation - evolution, 3) compartmentalization, 4) energy, 5) regeneration, 6)
adaptability - response to stimuli, and 7) seclusion - biochemical specifics.
The work of Barge et al. (2016), argues that life emerges when and where particular planetary-scale
conditions of chemical disequilibria are produced through the interactions of the atmosphere-hydrosphere
complex with fresh mafic to ultramafic oceanic crust continually replenished by active partial melting of
the mantle. One might then ask, when is too soon for life to arise on a planet, and when is it too late for it to
continue? The epoch of habitability on a rocky world is dictated by the suite of geological events and
processes it experiences (Frank 2014). Life always seems to find a way – there are many different types of
extremophiles and single-celled organisms on the Earth that can thrive in nearly any environment we have
tested them in. Some of these include piezophile, halophile, lithophile, thermophile, and psychrophile. The
limits on the long-term dormancy of organisms on a biologically dormant planet are thermal decay, amino
acid racemization, radiation, and degradation of organics (McKay and Marinova 2002).
Limits for habitability on Earth-like planets can be defined by extracting Earth’s history from the
geochemical record to infer that of the rocky planets lying far beyond the reaches of our solar system
(Frank 2014). Planetary accretion stymies the emergence of life, but geophysics might provide its eventual
demise. A requirement for the development of life in a natural process requires plate tectonics. It is
necessary for life – it recycles older rock into
new rock, which is a source of material to Figure 7
build life, and it recycles the earth’s CO2 in
what is called the global carbon cycle (and
further stabilizes the atmosphere). Plate
tectonics modulate the Earth’s energy budget
and globate climate, keeping Earth’s surface
temperate stable (Frank 2014). Figure 7 gives
exoplanet radiogenic heat production curves
against time since the planet formed. The
total energy budget of a terrestrial Earth-sized
planet depends strongly on its quantity and

16
Chapter 1 – Introduction and background Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

composition of radioactive isotopes (i.e. Frank 2014). Geological activity of a planet is maintained largely
by the long-lived, heat-producing radionuclides 40K, 232Th, 235U, and 238
U, whose concentrations decline as
40
Earth ages (Frank 2014). The gray band shows the range of heat production of K depending on the
relative proportions of primary versus secondary contributions. Eventually, these isotopes will no longer be
able to provide the heat required for mantle convection, and plate tectonics will shut down, calling into
question Earth’s ability to maintain habitability on a global scale. Frank (2014) showed that age is key in
the long-term thermal regimes of conventionally defined terrestrial Earth-like exoplanets. Important to
consider for extrasolar habitability is the concept of a galactic habitable zone (GHZ), defined as an annulus
in the galactic disk that is sufficiently metal-rich to form rocky planets and has a relatively temperate
environment for life to develop, particularly in the context of nearby supernovae rates (Frank 2014).
Provided with limits on the reign of life on Earth, the habitability of rocky exoplanets can be
evaluated: those that are too young will still be experiencing biological sterilizing impact events, while
those that are too old will possess cool mantles incapable of sustaining geological activity that supports the
only life we know of in the Universe. Ultimately, it is the geological processes that generate planetary
atmospheres, capable of sustaining sufficient energy balance circulation and the conditions that are right for
life to evolve and flourish. Geochemical and astrophysical criteria must be met before the surface of an
astronomical body is to be considered habitable. The first and foremost requirement for life is an energy
source, followed by a liquid medium to undergo chemical changes. NASA (2017) defines the criteria for
habitability as extended regions of liquid water, conditions favorable for the assembly of complex organic
molecules, and energy sources to sustain metabolism.
The astrophysical requirements are that the host star is a main-sequence star and lacks any irregular
radiation phenomena. The planet must receive a low variation in insolation, with low orbital eccentricity
ranging from ~0.2 and 0. The axial tilt of the planet must be no greater than 45º for normal habitability
conditions to exist. The Earth’s 23.5º, gives us nice seasonal variations that create a cyclic ‘heartbeat’ of the
biosphere. The most important factors, as far as human beings are concerned, are gravitational acceleration,
surface pressure and surface temperature (Moores and Melo 2003). These three factors are connected: any
suitable body must be sufficiently massive to prevent the thermal escape of the major atmospheric
constituents (Moores and Melo 2003). This results in a buildup of surface pressure and an increase in the
insulating properties of the atmosphere which affects the surface temperature (Moores and Melo 2003). In
addition to sufficent water, requirements for human habitability, from McKay et al., (1991), are:

1. Global Average Temperature between 273 K and 303 K

2. Total Atmospheric Pressure between 0.5 bar and 5 bar
3. Less then 10 mbar of Carbon Dioxide (toxic above this level)
4. Greater then 300 mbar of inert buffer gas (such as Nitrogen or Argon)
5. Oxygen Partial Pressure between 130 mbar and 300 mbar
6. Gravitational acceleration or the length of the day-night cycle (e.g. Moores and Melo 2003)

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Chapter 1 – Introduction and background Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

While the habitability requirments for a plant-based biosphere, according to McKay et al. (1991), are:

1. Total Atmospheric Pressure greater than 10 mbar

2. Carbon Dioxide partial pressure greater than 0.15 mbar (photosynthesis limit)
3. Greater than 10 mbar of Nitrogen (nitrogen fixation)
4. Greater then 1 mbar of Oxygen (Plant respiration), 20 – 50 mbar

Atmospheres are a critical requirement for the classification of a habitable world. During the initial
stages of planet formation, outgassing from volcanism creates atmospheres of H2O, CO2, N2, SO2, H2S,
NH4, CH4, and NO3. Airapetian et al. (2017) showed that the atmospheres of a significant fraction of Earth-
like exoplanets around M dwarfs and active K stars exposed to high XUV fluxes will incur a significant
atmospheric loss rate of oxygen and nitrogen, which will make them uninhabitable within a few tens to
hundreds of millions of years, given a low replenishment rate from volcanism or cometary bombardment.
Atmospheric loss affects exoplanetary habitability in terms of surface water inventory, atmospheric
pressure, the efficiency of greenhouse warming, and the dosage of the UV surface irradiation (Airapetian et
al. 2017). Atmospheres of exoplanets in the habitable zones around active young G-K-M stars are subject
to extreme X-ray and EUV (XUV) fluxes from their host stars that can initiate atmospheric erosion
(Airapetian et al. 2017). Thermal escape models suggest that exoplanetary atmospheres around active K-M
stars should undergo massive hydrogen escape, while heavier species including oxygen will accumulate
forming an oxidizing atmosphere (Airapetian et al. 2017).
Theories for engaging a self-
Figure 8
sustaining biosphere on another planet can
be guided by the theories on the origin of
life (Figure 8). The tree of life (Davis and
McKay 1996) shows how heterotrophic,
chemosynthetic, and photosynthetic life
forms developed. Terrestrial analogue
studies underpin almost all future
planetary missions and their use is
essential in the exploration of our Solar
system and in assessing the habitability of
other worlds (Preston and Dartnell 2014). Non-traditional habitable zones within the aqueous environments
of the icy moons of Europa and Enceladus, and potentially in the hydrocarbon lakes of Titan, were explored
in the work of Preston and Dartnell (2014). Such analogue sites offer critical ground-truths for
astrobiological studies on the habitability of different environmental parameter sets, the biological
mechanisms for survival in extreme environments and the preservation potential and detectability of
biosignatures (Preston and Dartnell 2014). It is clear from that terrestrial analogue sites can be applied to
multiple terrestrial Earth-sized planetary bodies, thereby increasing their value for future exploration.

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Chapter 2 – Terraformable worlds Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Early terraforming colony on the Moon

[Link]/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/[Link]

2 Terraformable worlds
2.1 Mars
The planets of the night sky have always fascinated humans, in particular: Mars. This world, close to
home, and reminiscent of the Earth’s past and future, gives us a peak into planetary evolution, habitability,
and colonization potential. Terraforming Mars could mark the beginning of our ability to long‐term
survival as a species (Cervantes et al. 2011). Mars is a potentially habitable planet given the appropriate
planetary engineering efforts (Barsoum 2014). Although cold and dry today, this red world holds all of the
essential elements that are needed for our definition of life to exist. Mars is the most Earth-like planet in the
Solar System and once
Figure 9
possessed a much warmer and
wetter climate, as evidenced by
extensive geomorphic features
on its surface (García-Arnay et
al. 2017; Luo et al. 2017). The
abundant water and active
hydrologic cycle were both
eventually lost as a byproduct of atmospheric escape over hundreds of millions of years, evidenced by the
MAVEN spacecraft (Lillis et al. 2015). Mars’s magnetic field ceased early in its history, suggesting the
atmosphere was stripped early on. It is believed that the warm climate of the primitive Mars was created by
a strong greenhouse effect caused by a thick CO2 atmosphere (Zubrin and McKay 1997). Mars lost its
warm climate when most of the available volatile CO2 was fixed into the form of carbonate rock due to the

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Chapter 2 – Terraformable worlds Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

action of cycling water (Zubrin and McKay 1997). Figures 9 and 10 from Zubrin and McKay (1996; 1997)
show the timelines for the mineralogical, biological, and climactic evolution of Mars.

Figure 10

It is believed, however, that sufficient CO2 to form a 300 to 600 mb atmosphere may still exist in
volatile form (Zubrin and McKay 1997), which can be seen in Figure 11 (next page). This CO2 may be
released by planetary warming, and as the CO2 atmosphere thickens, positive feedback is produced which
can accelerate the warming. Through a positive feedback reaction, the sublimation of the volatile southern
polar ice cap on Mars can increase global temperatures and pressures to the benchmarks set for minimum
acceptable survivable human conditions (Barsoum 2014). Raising of 4–5° C surface temperature south pole
of Mars, could release into the atmosphere from 50–100 mbar of CO2, which would be sufficient to start
the regolith massive degassing, generating a temperature positive feedback in the atmosphere regolith
system, increasingly raising the surface temperature of Mars (e.g. Cervantes et al. 2011; Budzik 2001).
A mathematical model from Zubrin and McKay (1997) of the Martian CO2 system shows this
potential of positive feedback to accelerate terraforming efforts. It is shown that by taking advantage of the
feedback, the requirements for planetary engineering can be reduced by about 2 orders of magnitude
relative to previous estimates (Zubrin and McKay 1997). Thus, they, (Zubrin and McKay 1997), conclude

20
Chapter 2 – Terraformable worlds Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

that by taking advantage of the positive feedback inherent in Mars' atmosphere/regolith CO2 system, that
engineering efforts can produce drastic changes in climate and pressure on a planetary scale. Figure 11
shows the volatile content on Mars with a global neutron map revealing water-rich and -poor regions.
Fogg (1992) considers a habitable environment on Mars would be one in which: 1) the yearly
average global temperature of a planetary body should be between 0° and 30°C, with a maximum seasonal
daily average of not less than –10°C and not much more than 40°C, 2) available fresh water levels should
be in the area of 10 L/person/day (including drinking, cooking, and cleansing estimates), 3) a global
average of 130 to 300 mbar of O2 , 0.1 to 1 mbar of CO2 , with enough N2 in order to act as a buffer for the
atmosphere (though at least 10 mbar is needed), and 4) an overall atmospheric pressure between 0.25 and
2.55 bar. The terraforming of Mars could also be broken down into two stages: 1) technological – the first
stage would consist of raising the average temperature above the freezing point of water, while increasing
the atmospheric pressure, and 2) biological – the second stage would consist of introducing organisms that
produce the oxygen required by most plants and animals to live (Cervantes et al. 2011).
A synergetic approach to terraforming Mars was adopted by Fogg (1992). The first point is that a
runaway CO2 greenhouse effect is not ideal and may produce too much CO2 for subsequent photosynthetic
processing into a breathable atmosphere (Fogg 1992). Trace greenhouse gases currently appear to be
capable of providing only about half of the 60ºC warming needed, and most of the chemicals proposed so
far would be too short-lived and destructive to ozone (Fogg 1992). He goes on to discuss space-based
mirrors could increment the Martian insolation to an Earth like value (Fogg 1992). Other devolatilization
methods, such as focused sunlight, nuclear mining and impacts, have their own distinct problems or
unknowns that render them less than fully applicable for the provision of a substantial atmosphere and
hydrosphere (Fogg 1992). He finishes with considering that unmanaged Antarctic-type ecosystems appear
to be wholly inadequate at the task of oxygenating the atmosphere and transforming Mars into an aerobic
planet (Fogg 1992). They found that this synergetic approach could make it possible to obtain estimated
values of 280K (~60K increase), >400mbar total pressure (from ~7mbar initial), an approximate 40%
reduction in UV flux, ~70m global depth of water (at 10% surface coverage, with a Boreal Sea up to 1km
deep), and plant coverage of approximately 25% of the surface in basic plants with some higher order
plants present (Fogg 1992). This shows that their synergetic approach to terraforming effectively initiates a
habitable environment within a much faster timeframe than estimated by any single approach.
Figure 12 (right) shows an artists
Figure 12
rendition from [Link] of a future
terraforming technology that could be
used for heating up atmospheres, by
adding gasses, and potentially driving
propellant production (see Musk 2017)
for interplanetary travel. Technologies
for producing the initial warming on
Mars to drive the terraforming include

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Chapter 2 – Terraformable worlds Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

the stationing of orbiting mirrors, the importation of natural volatiles with high greenhouse capacity from
the outer solar system, and the production of artificial halocarbon greenhouse gases on the Martian surface
through in-situ industry (Zubrin and McKay 1997). Mars would be habitable if it were warmer and had a
denser O2 or N2 atmosphere, but previous terraforming proposals have been incomplete or have described
very slow processes (Birch 1992). Other methods such as using dark, carbonaceous Martian moon material
to alter the overall average albedo of the polar ice cap has been proposed (Barsoum 2014), and by covering
roughly 10% of the Martian polar ice cap with dark carbonaceous material, the required energy for
terraformation can be obtained.
Graham (2003) thinks that the process of the biological terraforming of Mars can be compared to the
process of primary ecological succession on terrestrial barren rocks. Each stage in the succession alters the
environment in such a way that the next stage in the process becomes possible (Graham 2003), like any
good positive feedback. The initial stage in terraforming Mars will be dominated by microorganisms and
lichens (Graham 2003). This would require removing carbon dioxide from the Martian atmosphere, adding
oxygen and nitrogen, and adding organics to the regolith to produce a true Martian soil (Graham 2003). The
second stage will be dominated by bryophytes, simple plants such as mosses and liverworts, which will
draw down the carbon dioxide level of the Martian atmosphere and raise the level of oxygen (Graham
2003). The critical limiting factors for the introduction of flowering plants are the level of oxygen in the
atmosphere and the lack of animal pollinators (Graham 2003). The majority of flowering plants require a
minimum oxygen level of 20 to 50 mbar (Graham 2003), and certain aquatic plants and arctic plants,
however, are highly tolerant of anoxic conditions.
Figure 13 shows an artists rendition of the Martian surface, post-terraformation (sea level stable,
cryosphere developed, and the biosphere has taken hold). Notice the polar sea ice and glacial caps on the
Tharsis region volcanoes. The difficulties in terraforming Mars are that we are dealing with a radiative

Figure 13

deficit, compounded by a lack of resources (Moores and Melo 2003). This suggests that a number of
techniques will be required to act synergistically in order to improve the habitability of the planet.

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Chapter 2 – Terraformable worlds Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Additionally, the initial contamination of a planet with Earth life is to be minimized in order to facilitate a
search for planetary life (Todd 2006). In order to sustain human life there needs to be large-scale
modifications of the planetary environment (i.e. Todd 2006). The main considerations for terraforming
Mars are how to change the temperature, water level, atmospheric composition, and atmospheric pressure.
Environmental change on the Earth is imminent from anthropogenic causes and will also occur on a longer
timescale from natural climate cycles – such as ice ages (McKay 2011). These natural changes make the
eventual geo-engineering of the Earth inevitable. The question is not if, but, when and how. A habitable
Mars is not necessarily a "lifeboat" for the Earth (McKay 2011), but it would help us understand the
colonization of geochemically and biologically dead planets, while providing deep and useful insights into
the potential biospheres of planets and moons.
A drastic modification of Martian conditions can be achieved using 21st century technology (Zubrin
and McKay 1997). The Mars so produced will closely resemble the conditions existing on the primitive
Mars (Zubrin and McKay 1997). Humans operating on the surface of such a Mars would require breathing
gear, but pressure suits would be unnecessary (Zubrin and McKay Figure 14
1997). With outside atmospheric pressures raised, it will be
possible to create large dwelling areas by means of very large
inflatable structures (Zubrin and McKay 1997). Average
temperatures could be above the freezing point of water for
significant regions during portions of the year, enabling the growth
of plant life in the open (Zubrin and McKay 1997). The spread of
plants could produce enough oxygen to make Mars habitable for
animals in several millennia (Zubrin and McKay 1997). More
rapid oxygenation would require engineering efforts supported by multi-terrawatt power sources (Zubrin
and McKay 1997). The desire to increase the speed of the terraforming of Mars (i.e. Figure 14) will be a
driver for developing such advanced and megs-scale technologies, which in turn will define a leap in
human power over nature as we advanced toward a type-1 civilization.
Ultimately, the exploration of Mars will be the first step for humanity in the colonization of other
worlds, and we will do this within the next 100 years (Musk 2017). The two most important factors in the
quest to colonize and eventually terraform Mars are reducing the cost by increasing reusability and
propellant production on the surface (Musk 2017). SpaceX’s recent achievements of reducing their costs
through reusability has shown us that the feasibility of colonizing our nearest neighbor is possible, today
more than ever, this is extremely relevant to our fate as a species. Each day on Earth that brings us closer to
climate change, overpopulation and accelerating industrialization will eventually bring humanity to a state
of crisis. We must continue researching viable technologies in the realm of planetary-scale engineering, as
well as the eventual cost-allowing (200,000 USD/person) shipment of a nearly 100,000 person human
colony to Mars (Musk 2017) within the century. Ever-increasing problems are global increase in average
temperature by 1°C (1.8°F), sea ice melting, coral reefs dying, and ecosystems collapsing, and now we only
have 3 years left to prevent a full blown climate catastrophe (Figueres et al. 2017). A Summary of Elon

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Chapter 2 – Terraformable worlds Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Musk’s SpaceX presentation at the 67th International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico can
be found in the references (Musk 2017). The timescale below (Figure 15 from Musk 2017) suggesting we
should send at least a total of 5 fleets of ships by 2027 – in just 10 years to quickly colonize Mars. Musk
has announced they are focusing on the construction of the BFR (Big F–ing Rocket) for transport to Mars.

Figure 15

2.2 Venus
Altering the conditions of the planet Venus was initially suggested by Carl Sagan in the journal
Science in 1961. He imagined planetary engineering through a process of seeding the atmosphere with
algae, converting water, nitrogen and carbon dioxide into more complex organic molecules (Sagan 1961).
Removing CO2 from the atmosphere, and reducing its pressure would cool Venus and reduce its
greenhouse effect until surface temperatures reached near-habitable conditions, around 273–373 K (e.g.
Sagan 1961; Dyson 1989). Terraforming Venus requires 2 major changes; removing most of the planet's
dense 9 MPa carbon dioxide atmosphere and reducing the planet's 450 °C (723.15 K) surface temperature
(Birch 1991). These goals are closely interrelated, because Venus's extreme temperature is thought to be
due to the greenhouse effect caused by its dense atmosphere (Birch 1991). The atmospheric structure of
Venus compared to the Earth and Mars is given in Figure 16 below.
The work of Birch (1991) laid
Figure 16
out the general foundations for the
terraforming of Venus, including the
economic considerations, population
growth, and megascale environmental
engineering. The low end of the
timescales for cooling Venus are
within ~200 years, suggested by Birch
(1991), but the upper limit suggested
it could take as long as 10,000 years. I
show that a more reasonable timescale
is in between the two around 3,000–

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Chapter 2 – Terraformable worlds Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

4,000 years for Venus. Another common proposal is pure sequestration of atmospheric carbon in order to
solve the temperature problem (e.g. Birch 1991; Dyson 1989). Removing its massive atmosphere is the
single greatest obstacle in terraforming Venus (e.g. Fogg 1987). Another potential method – transforming
Venus by induced overturn – was first suggested
by Smith (1989). Gillett (1991) suggests that Figure 17

stabilizing Earth-like conditions will be difficult,

but suggests that using little water and hyper-
saline seas, to reduce the vapor pressure of
water, are possible solutions. Speculations
resulting from the observations of Robins et al.,
(2015) suggest that life's origin could have been
intimately related to chemical/physical processes
occurring where volcanic sources discharged iron through highly porous siliceous substrates and into the
primitive ocean. The diverse community also provides a potentially useful ecosystem for Mars terraforming
experiments (Robins et al. 2015).
The terraforming of Venus after the removal of nearly 8.9 MPa of atmosphere would initially include
the addition of the oceans, which would collect at the poles of Venus, since the equatorial region is highest
in elevation. Figure 17 shows two different stages in the future evolution of the planet Venus after
atmospheric removal, post-terraformation. Figure 18 is a table using data from [Link] that shows all of
the governing planetary characteristics (i.e. Section 1.1) of the 5 terrestrial planets of Sol. This table is what
I consider for the initial conditions, mission year zero, for terraforming.

Figure 18

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Chapter 2 – Terraformable worlds Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

2.3 Earth
Our home planet is the reference point to which we consider a planet habitable. There are likely
countless other possibilities for ‘habitability’ meaning the ability to host life, such as varying the
atmospheric chemistry, and geology of terrestrial planets and moons. For human life, we consider planetary
engineering to habitable and stable conditions to be based on Earth-like conditions. Earth is undergoing
dramatic climate shifts due to anthropogenic forcing of the climate (i.e. IPCC 2014; NASA 2017). In order
for us to save the planet from extreme changes, I hope you would agree that we must act quickly and
cooperatively. I will discuss in more detail the potential futures and fate of the Earth in Chapter 8. Our
species does have the technology and means to save the planet from the extreme changes that will result
from our current course and direction. To potentially save the planet, we can break the steps down to more
easily tackle the problem. In order to reverse the effects of climate change on the Earth, I propose these 5
steps, in chronologic order, for stopping, or reversing the effects of global climate change:

1. Net growth of the biosphere (natural removal of CO2)

2. Increased renewable resources (to power steps 3–5)
3. Net technological removal of CO2 (equilibrium at ~100 ppm)
4. Net reduction of increasing emission rates of CO2
5. Net removal of CO2 from the oceans

For the purpose of this paper, climate change is the term used to describe the temporal evolution of a
planetary atmosphere. This is essentially a game of atmospheric equilibrium with the geochemistry of the
surface, ocean, and biosphere. Atmospheric pressure and moisture content, continental land mass
distribution, ocean currents, atmospheric currents, and total energy balance (or budget) are the main things
that dictate the evolution of a planetary atmosphere. The Earth experiences 'natural' (non-anthropogenic)
climate change forcings due to slight variations in solar irradiance, the eccentricity, obliquity, and
precession. The energy distributed throughout a planet's oceans is constrained by the orientation, shape, and
bathymetry of the continents. The modern shape of the continents leads to the Earth's modern ocean-energy
climate distributions (such as El Nino and La Nina). The addition of greenhouse gasses is a radiative
forcing that is increasingly adding thermal energy to the atmosphere. The 2 most important of these to talk
about are carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). These are being anthropogenically added to our
atmosphere everyday, and they ultimately lead to a net increase of Earth's average global temperature.
Simply due to the increased energy 'budget' of the Earth, locally, climates will be shifted into extreme heat
waves, extreme cold, droughts, forest fires, flooding, extreme storms, and costal drowning due to SLR.
Technologies for reversing the effects of climate change, which would also be used in terraforming,
are carbon sequestration plantations (i.e. this work; Pazar 2017). On the Earth, we would need to remove
~700 billon metric tons. This is not that unrealistic for humans to technologically convert into carbonate
rock if we power them with 100% renewable energy. For example, from 2011 to 2014, China produced 640
billion metric tons of cement in three years alone, driven by rapid industrialization (i.e., supply and
demand). So we are therefore tasked with removing ~7 billion metric tons per year of carbon, which

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Chapter 2 – Terraformable worlds Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

becomes a feasible task if we want to remove ~700 billion metric tons in the next ~100 years. This is of
course after assuming the economic cost reductions and sufficient renewable power supply. The research in
this report suggests that humans could do it in less than 100 years, if we cooperate and act quickly.

2.4 Mercury, dwarf planets, and moons

Other possible candidates for terraforming include Titan, Callisto, Ganymede, Europa, the Moon,
Mercury; Saturn's moon Enceladus, and the dwarf planets Ceres and Pluto. The main problem facing the
colonization and sustainability of these worlds is their low gravity, which presents the challenge of their
ability to retain an atmosphere. It is possible however, that if the technological and artificial rate of gas
emissions produced from the surface is able to counter-balance the atmospheric erosion and escape from
the top of the atmosphere, that the net pressure could remain fixed and suitable for human colonization. On
small worlds, this obviously may not remain sustainable for long time scales, but still remains a possibility
for hopping to-and-from different moons and planets in hopes of temporary colonization and/or resource
extraction. Planets such as Mercury present a threat to future colonization because of the extremely high
temperatures and high levels of radiation at the surface. In contrast, worlds at the edge of the solar system
would have a hard time harnessing solar energy and would likely be powered by nuclear and geothermal
energy sources in order to sustain high enough temperatures on future potential colonies.
Figures 19A (below) and 19B (next page) are two tables that give data from [Link] which shows
all of the governing planetary characteristics (discussed in Section 1.1) of the 10 additional moons of our
solar system being tested in this report. These tables are what I consider for the initial conditions, mission
year zero, for terraforming of these worlds.

Figure 19A

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Chapter 2 – Terraformable worlds Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Figure 19B

2.5 Hypothetical worlds

Hypothetical exoplanetary candidates are considered for the application of the terraforming models
to new knowledge that has emerged of the diversity and unique properties of the thousands of exoplanets
all over the galaxy. I consider a range of four hypothetical exoplanets (Figure 20 below) to colonize that are
named Bacchus, Pontus, Ragnarok, and Boreas. I will go over these four planet’s characteristics starting
from the one closest to the star and moving outward. Each one has unique properties that are theorized
based on their size and astrophysical parameters that governed their theoretical evolution.

Figure 20

Bacchus is a beautiful world of purple color and complicated rock formations, created by the unique
composition of the planet’s crust and the gravitational influence of nearby planets. I would expect
colonization to be fairly straightforward following the same pathways as it took to colonize Mars. This
world is only slightly larger than the Earth, and closest to its host star. Pontus is a super-Earth water world.
The goal initially on this planet is to reduce sea level that would reveal new lands for human colonization
and expansion. Ragnarok is a super-Earth world as well; over three times the size of the Earth. It is
incredibly rich with metals and minerals, and is in technically in the habitable zone for liquid water.
However, this world is ridden with a dark thick atmosphere full of ash and poisonous volcanic gasses.
There are lava-exposed rifts on the surface, created by an unstable core and mantle. This planet also has a

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Chapter 2 – Terraformable worlds Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

strong magnetic field, preventing much atmospheric erosion and protecting the surface from harmful
radiation. The last world, lingering on the outer edge of its solar system is Boreas. The coldest world yet to
be targeted for colonization, where massive polar ice caps cover most of its surface, with only small
amounts of land exposed around the equator. The initial condition data for these hypothetical exoplanets,
and TRAPPIST-1d can be found in Figure [Link] worlds, while hypothetical in nature, provide insight
into the potential for future colonization and terraforming, as well as the diversity of planets in the galaxy.

Exoplanet and exomoon artwork

[Link]

2.6 Exoplanets
Known existing exoplanets and exoplanet candidates are considered in this analysis. As of January
2018, there are now 3,726 confirmed planets in 2,792 systems, with 622 systems being multi-planet
(Schneider 2018, Perryman 2015), with at least 30 earth-sized planets in the habitable zone for liquid water,
and the number continues to grow as we comb through the data and confirm results from past observations
(e.g. Witze and Krzysztofiak 2015; Gillon et al. 2017; Wittenmyer et al. 2014; Southworth et al. 2017).
Fresh discoveries are being made all the time, including the discovery of H2O and CO in an exoplanet
atmosphere (Konopacky et al. 2013), water vapor absorption in the clear atmosphere of a Neptune-sized
exoplanet (Fraine et al. 2014) and a temperate rocky super-Earth transiting a nearby cool star (Dittmann et
al. 2017) to name just a few. Earth sized and super-Earth sized worlds are abundant (i.e. Figure 24). Around
Kepler 68, Kepler-68b has a 5.4 day orbit, with a mass of 8.3±2.4 M⊕, a radius of 2.31±0.09 R⊕, and
density of 3.32±0.98 g cm−3, giving Kepler-68b a density intermediate between that of the ice giants and
Earth (Gilliland et al. 2013). Kepler-68c is also Earth-sized, with a radius of 0.953±0.040 R⊕ (Gilliland et
al. 2013). To name further planets recently discovered in the habitable zone that are Earth sized, we turn to
Quintana et al. (2014) who has shown that Kepler-186f is a 1.11±0.14 R⊕ planet orbiting in the habitable
zone of a cool star, along with 5 other planets in this system.

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Chapter 2 – Terraformable worlds Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Figure 21

Perhaps the most interesting system to be discovered thus far is the TRAPPIST-1 system (Figure 22)
of 7 tidally-locked and resonant exoplanets that orbit closely around an M-dwarf star approximately 12
parsecs away from the Earth (Gillon et al. 2017). In this report, I test feasibility of colonizing TRAPPIST-
1d, which Winn (2016) gives the name Huanca. Assuming that interstellar travelers would arrive in the
system many thousands of years from now, they would likely begin first with one planet, most suitable for
colonization. In this case we choose Huanca (TRAPPIST-1d) because it has been shown to be the most
plausible Earth-like candidate (Quarles et al. 2017; Alberti et al. 2017), is on the inner edge of the habitable
zone (Gillon et al. 2017), and is a tidally locked rocky ocean world (Bourrier et al. 2017) with the potential
for tidally induced plate tectonics (Zanazzi and Amaury 2017.). Using models more complicated or similar
to TerraGenesis, this leaves the remaining 6 worlds of the TRAPPIST-1 system to be studied for future
terraforming analysis and efforts. The graphic below (Figure 22) is the most updated (NASA/JPL 2018)
parameters of the system, including a comparison to the Earth’s planets in terms of density and insolation.

Figure 22
1

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Chapter 2 – Terraformable worlds Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Interplanetary panspermia has been suggested to be potentially orders of magnitude more likely to
have occurred in the TRAPPIST-1 system compared to the Earth-to-Mars scenario, which makes this
system very interesting to analyze in terms of abiogenesis and future astrobiology research (Lingam and
Loeb 2017). The UV surface habitability of the TRAPPIST-1 system (O’mallet-James and Kaltenegger
2017) in conjunction with atmospheric escape from solar wind erosion (Dong et al. 2017) harbors a wide
range of possible scenarios where the development of life on these worlds may have been extinguished, or
still remains possible. Future studies would want to consider what it would take to for the colonization of
nearby exoplanets, such as our closest neighbor, Proxima b; whose potential climate has been modeled by
Boutle et al. (2017), and which may be confirmed soon by technology like James Webb Space Telescope.
Detecting the atmospheres of low mass, low-temperature exoplanets is a high-priority goal on the
path to ultimately detecting biosignatures in the atmospheres of habitable exoplanets (Southworth et al.
2017). Southworth et al. (2017) reported the detection of an atmospheric feature in the atmosphere of a
1.6M⊕ transiting exoplanet, GJ 1132 b, with an equilibrium temperature of ~600 K and orbiting a nearby
M-dwarf. They found an average radius of 1.43 ± 0.16 R⊕ for the planet, averaged over all the passbands,
and a radius of 0.255 ± 0.023 RSUN for the star, both of which are significantly greater than previously
found. Southworth et al. (2017) showed that it has a surface radius of 1.375 ± 0.16 R⊕ allows for a wide
range of interior compositions ranging from a nearly Earth-like rocky interior, with ~70% silicate and
~30% Fe, to a substantially Figure 23
H2O-rich water world. The
formation of terrestrial
planets in the habitable zone
with very high water by
Detection method
mass contents seems to be a
common process around
Sunlike stars (Zain et al.
2017). The formation of
planets in the habitable zone
with masses and water contents similar to those of Earth seems to be rare around G-type stars in some
model simulations (Zain et al. 2017). The diversity of known exoplanets using all methods of detection can
been seen with figures from NASA which looks at orbital period vs. size (Figure 23) to classify the types.
The most common exoplanets are Neptune-sized, which account for ~38% of discovered exoplanets
(Perryman 2015). While ~31% are ‘super-Earth’ sized exoplanets, ~23% are Earth-sized or smaller, and the
remaining ~8% are Jupiter sized or larger (Perryman 2015). Figure 24 on the next page from NASA (2017)
shows on the left that the distribution of small planets comes in two sizes. On the right we see the known
habitable zone planet populations in terms of candidates vs. confirmed exoplanets.

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Chapter 3 – Planetary evolution pathways Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Figure 24

3. Planetary evolution pathways

The formation and eventual fate of a planet is dictated by its evolution and initial conditions. I call
this planetary lifecycle an evolution pathway. The various astrophysical and geological conditions (Table 1,
Figure 1B) that govern the fate of a planet help us to theorize its evolutionary path. The large natural
variations in the astrophysical, atmospheric, and geologic properties of a given world are dictated by a
unique planetary formation, dynamics, and evolution. This integrative process is what I consider the
pathway. Figure 25 is an extremely simplified graphic comparing the formation pathways for two dominant
classes of exoplanets. Naturally, every planet undergoes one of these pathways based on the events and
situations that make up its history. Examples of possible events can include collisions, gravitational
interactions, astronomical catastrophes, and biological development. The most interesting of these
pathways are of course the pathways that lead to habitability, and ultimately biological colonization.
Surface interactions that can give
Figure 25
rise to habitable climates are
driven by geochemical reactions
and geomorphic processes that
can act in feedbacks to either
promote or decay the climactic
habitability of a planetary
atmosphere and its surface. The
rarity of a planet’s pathway to
result in a habitable world is
extremely hard to know today, as
we only have one example of such a planet, the Earth. We do however have the Earth as a laboratory and
guidebook for understanding the formation and evolution of habitable worlds. In this report, I consider a
habitable world as one that is suitable for humans without life support systems.

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Chapter 3 – Planetary evolution pathways Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

I make predictions using parameterization from Sections 1.1–1.2, with the dynamics of terraforming,
to show how it is possible to achieve a stable planetary colony, assuming the technology exists and there
are enough resources to support growth. The evolutionary path of a planet’s atmosphere, surface
temperature, and biosphere, all take on various graphical plots. These dynamics will give us a comparison,
allowing us to address the timescales and shapes of the numerical model results (Chapter 4). Figure 26
shows the surface temperature evolution over time for Mars, Earth, and Venus. You can see that Earth’s
temperature increases due to global warming – and then becomes depressed back to ideal conditions (in
around 500 years) due to the likely instigation of the first large-scale terraforming program to remediate
climate change. The temperatures of Mars and Venus increase dramatically and decrease dramatically,
respectively. Mars reaches habitable conditions in this diagram around 1,000 years and Venus reaches this
milestone at a whopping 10,000 years into the future. These kinds of predictions are underpinned by the
assumption of technological capabilities and economical resources. Not only can we predict the thermal
evolution, but we can also predict atmospheric evolution of a planet undergoing terraforming.

Figure 26

The pressure evolution graph (Figure 27) shows the addition of three major gasses required for a
habitable atmosphere. Nitrogen and oxygen are the sought after gasses in the case of terraforming, and in
this graph we have oxygen being converted from carbon dioxide. The important thing to notice in this
example pathway is the shape of the curve, which is consistent with our dynamics and theory of
terraforming (Section 1.3). Once atmospheric conditions become more suitable for life of the introduced
species, the importation of microbial life could begin, and a planetary biosphere would begin to take hold.
As conditions approach that of Earth, plants could also be brought in. This would accelerate the production
of oxygen, which theoretically would make the planet eventually able to support animal life. A planetary

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Chapter 3 – Planetary evolution pathways Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

biosphere would follow a similar growth law to population growth with a carrying capacity that would
depend on the available land area bound by the geographic climatic conditions. Population growth of a
colony would likely eventually reflect the same shape and growth rate as expressed in the Earth’s
population curve from 3,000 years ago to the year 2,000 (Figure 28). However, all populations that are
bound by resources and available space will reach a carrying capacity (see population in Section 1.3)

Figure 27

Figure 28
exponential runaway growth phase

establishment phase

Now we dive into the meat of this report, where I analyze the data collected from the numerical-
game model runs for all 21 worlds tested. This section should be understood in terms of the terraforming
theory detailed in Chapter 1, but strongly depends on the technological capability of colonization.

34
Chapter 4 – Modeled data Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Artist’s rendition of before and after terraforming our solar system

[Link]/d4a6/f/2016/040/6/c/solar_system_terraformed_by_1wyrmshadow1-[Link]

4. TerraGenesis modeled data

Derived from the numerical-game based simulation smartphone application TerraGenesis (Winn
2017), I present the Terraforming of 16 planetary bodies from our solar system, plus 4 hypothetical
exoplanets, and 1 confirmed habitable zone Earth-sized exoplanet from TRAPPIST-1 – leading to a total of
testing and analyzing 21 different terrestrial Earth-sized planetary bodies. The sixteen terrestrial worlds of
Sol are: Mercury, Venus, Earth, Moon, Mars, and the dwarf planet Pluto; Jupiter’s moons: Io, Europa,
Ganymede, and Callisto; Saturn’s moons: Tethys, Dione, Rhea, Titan, and Iapetus; and Uranus’s last moon:
Oberon. The exoplanets tested are Bacchus, Pontus, Ragnarok, and Boreas, and Huanca (TRAPPIST-1d).

4.1 Numerical-game model assumptions

The smartphone application TerraGenesis strives to be an accurate representation of the science of

terraforming (Winn 2017). However, actual terraforming would require the focused efforts of millions of
people over decades or centuries (Winn 2017). No computer program, let alone single-player video game,
could accurately simulate the details of the undertaking, any more than a historical game could represent
the experience of human history (Winn 2017). In order to create an educational and scientifically accurate
numerical-game model, Winn (2017) simplified and altered a few fundamental scientific principles; the
largest of these assumptions, for visual representation and numerical calculations, are listed next.

! The color of a planet's atmosphere indicates its composition. In reality, Earth's atmosphere appears
blue because of Rayleigh scattering, unrelated to the amount of oxygen. To provide players with a
visual clue to the planet's atmospheric composition, the model renders oxygen-poor atmospheres as
red, oxygen-oversaturated atmospheres as yellow, and oxygen-nominal atmospheres as blue.

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Chapter 4 – TerraGenesis modeled data Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

! Atmospheric composition has been conceptually reduced to "oxygen" and "not oxygen." In reality,
the makeup of each planet's atmosphere is unique, consisting of varying levels of thousands of
different elements and compounds, and would pose radically different challenges.
! Oxygen percentage remains constant during atmospheric pressure changes. In reality, pumping
carbon dioxide (CO2) or other gasses into a planet's atmosphere to warm it up and increase the
pressure, or removing it to do the opposite, would alter the oxygen content of the planet
significantly. The model assumes a constant oxygen percentage independent of atmospheric
pressure, unless the planet's atmosphere completely disappears, its oxygen content will drop to zero.
! Sea levels are based on elevation relative to the nadir, rather than total volume. In reality, increasing
the sea level of a planet will depend significantly on the planet's topography. To improve model
rendering and player understanding, sea level changes are treated as linear values of elevation above
the lowest point of elevation on a planet's surface.
! The maximum biomass quantity and effects on a planet have been estimated based on the size of the
planet. In reality, the Earth’s biosphere is one of the most complex systems in the known universe,
with wide-ranging and often unknown effects on our planet. The model assumes a biomass
maximum of 300,000 megatonnes (Mt) per planet size class (tiny, small, Earth-like, large, huge), and
a consistent, predictable release of oxygen into the atmosphere based on biomass quantity.
! Some numerical values for ideal conditions have been rounded slightly for ease of understanding,
such as Earth's atmospheric oxygen content being listed as 210,000 ppm rather than 209,460 ppm.
! The effects of terraforming technologies have been estimated, due to many being based on unproven
concepts proposed by physicists, engineers, and astronomers throughout the past 100 years.
! The initial conditions for the four hypothetical worlds have been created as fictional constructs, to
highlight and explore different gameplay scenarios, and potential planetary evolution pathways.
! Small planetary bodies such as moons and dwarf planets are poor candidates for terraforming
because their low gravity would be unable to retain a significant atmosphere, unless you are
technologically adding enough atmospheric gas to reach steady state, but they are included anyway.

The initial conditions for each planetary scenario are based on real measurements and data taken
form spacecraft and here on the Earth. The digital elevation models used for the topography are also as high
resolution and are accurate representations of the planetary surfaces in this report. This model does take
into account some random events such as comet and asteroid impacts, which can either add atmospheric
pressure or water to the planetary body being tested. This model does not account for atmospheric loss,
volcanic eruptions, or other unmentioned astronomical random events such as solar flares.
Despite these minor changes and gameplay simplifications, I believe that TerraGenesis remains a
largely faithful representation of the challenges, opportunities, timescale, dynamics, and potential of space
colonization and future terraforming efforts. I hope that this technical report and the easily accessible
numerical-game model on smartphones will perhaps inspire many people to learn more about the sciences
of astronomy, astrophysics, geology, planetary science, space exploration, and planetary engineering.

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Chapter 4 – TerraGenesis modeled data Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

4.2 Topographic and visual data

The model runs for the planets Mercury, Venus, Earth and Mars are shown here along with the
Earth’s moon and the dwarf planet Pluto. Figures 29 and 30 give the visual data produced by the model,
showing the topography, initial conditions, and final colonization states of these 6 worlds.

Figure 29

Figure 30

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Chapter 4 – TerraGenesis modeled data Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

The model outputs for all 5 exoplanets tested are shown here. Figures 31 and 32 give the visual data
produced by the model, showing the topography, initial conditions, and final colonization states of these 5
worlds. You can recognize these are hypothetical worlds by looking at the randomly generated DEM’s.

Figure 31

Figure 32

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Chapter 4 – TerraGenesis modeled data Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

The model outputs for the Jovian and Uranus system are shown here. Figures 33 and 34 give the
visual data produced by the model, showing the topography, initial conditions, and final colonization states
for Jupiter’s 4 largest moons, and the outer decent size moon of Uranus.

Figure 33

Figure 34

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Chapter 4 – TerraGenesis modeled data Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

The model outputs for the Saturn system are shown here. Figures 35 and 36 give the visual data
produced by the model, showing the topography, initial conditions, and final colonization states.

Figure 35

Figure 36

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Chapter 4 – TerraGenesis modeled data Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

4.3 Population

I will start with presenting the population data from the model runs. It is important to note that
although the data eventually follows the expected exponential law, that there was no means of creating a
carrying capacity. In reality, population capacity would depend primarily on the planet’s size, i.e. the
available resources. The trends in population are consistent with what we expect, are presented in Figures
37 and 38. The numerical results from the model show logarithmic population growth, and a population
‘boom’ at 1,400–3,100 mission years (dotted black), after stable and habitable conditions are reached. The
population growth data and implications with economic resources are analyzed in Section 5.1.

Figure 37

Figure 38

Return to logarithmic growth

(stable habitability, and free
energy developed)

The ‘boom’ phase: when ultra

habitable conditions favor
extremely fast population growth

Colonization phase (pre-habitable)

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Chapter 4 – TerraGenesis modeled data Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

4.4 Temperature

The temperature evolution of each planetary body from the model runs is presented in Figures 39 and
40. It is important to note that ideal conditions for each planetary equilibrium temperature fell around 273
K. This is because I aimed to create a cryosphere in worlds with land surface at the poles. This is largely
because in an ideal planet with an axial tilt, a cryosphere helps to create seasonal hydrologic cycles that
many ecosystems depend on. In reality, each of these worlds has variable chemical compositions, which
would not necessarily support a cryosphere or Earth-typical hydrologic cycles. Ideal conditions are reached
at 900–2,800 mission years, and the temperature data is further analyzed and discussed in Section 5.3.

Figure 39

Figure 40

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Chapter 4 – TerraGenesis modeled data Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

4.5 Pressure

The pressure evolution of each planetary body from the model runs is presented in Figures 41 and 42.
Ideal conditions for each atmosphere are between 80,000 and 120,000 Pa. Planets with an extreme
greenhouse atmosphere start their initial conditions at very high values (Venus, Ragnarok), and for this case
have also been plotted on a logarithmic y-axis scale. Moons and planetary bodies with trace atmospheres
start with initial conditions around zero. The pressure data is further analyzed and discussed in Section 5.4.

Figure 41

Figure 42

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Chapter 4 – TerraGenesis modeled data Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

4.6 Oxygen

The evolution of oxygen in the atmosphere of each planetary body from the model presented here in
Figures 43 and 44. Ideal conditions for human habitability is between 200,000 and 220,000 ppm O2.
Planets with an excess of oxygen in their atmosphere have high initial conditions (Boreas, Huanca), and are
limited to hypothetical exoplanet conditions. Planetary bodies with trace atmospheres, or no initial oxygen,
start with initial conditions around zero. The oxygen data is further analyzed and discussed in Section 5.5.

Figure 43

Figure 44

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Chapter 4 – TerraGenesis modeled data Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

4.7 Sea level

The total liquid water content, in terms of sea level relative to the nadir, of each planetary body from
the model is presented here in Figures 45 and 46. Ideal conditions for sea level depend on each planet’s size
and topography. Super-Earth sized planets with a large surface area are able to hold more liquid water (ex.
Ragnarok, Pontus), as do planets with greater topographic relief (ex. Pluto, Mars, Io). Planetary bodies with
no liquid water, start with a sea level of zero, and cannot hold liquid water until the temperature and
pressure thresholds are met. The oxygen data is further analyzed and discussed in Section 5.2.

Figure 45

Figure 46

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Chapter 4 – TerraGenesis modeled data Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

4.8 Biomass

The total planetary biomass of each planetary body from the model is presented here in Figures 47
and 48. The maximum capacity of a planetary biosphere depends on each planet’s size, land surface area,
oceanic volume, and global climate. Super-Earth sized planets with a large land surface area are able to
host more biomes (ex. Ragnarok, Pontus). Smaller planets, such as moons, have the lowest total biomass.
The biomass data is further analyzed and discussed in Section 5.6.

Figure 47

Figure 48

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Chapter 5 – Analysis and interpretations Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

5. Analysis and interpretations

5.1 Population and economy

To begin the analysis, we naturally start with the results of how population plays a role in planetary
engineering. First, on any manned mission to another world, the population will start out with a handful of
individuals, and will slowly grow over the starting years as more missions are able to land and begin the
infrastructure development phase. Of course, if a planet’s terraforming was initiated with SRS, this
infrastructure would already be emplaced, and the initial population growth after arrival would get a boost,
and would be able to start off with a larger initial population coming off the ship. The three distinct phases
on the numerical data graphs show the initial logarithmic population growth, followed by a and a
population ‘boom’ phase between 1,400–3,100 mission years (dotted black). After around 3,400 mission
years have passed, the population growth falls back to a standard logarithmic shape.
Important to keep in mind here is that the model assumes no carrying capacity in terms of economy
or population, when in reality it would depend on planetary size and economic resources. Resource
extraction on and near the planet (for example: asteroids, rings, small moons) would drive the technological
advancements by enabling the economic capabilities and resources required to sustain terraforming. The
moon of Saturn, Titan, would be a particularly interesting candidate for resource extraction due to the
abundance of liquid methane lakes in the equatorial regions. Asteroid mining for rare and heavy metals is a
viable solution to future colonization, and the planets and moons in our solar system may have unknown
concentrations of heavy metals and essential elements that could be mined. Technologies that provide
subsurface density and gravity anomaly maps will be useful for mining new worlds. Each planetary body
has a unique and largely unknown economic potential, and is best understood case-by-case.

5.2 Geography and sea level

Looking at the digital elevation models (DEM’s) from the models show the contrast of potential
worlds that can be manifested through the addition of water and a biosphere. The DEM’s from the
hypothetical worlds are randomly generated noise, and therefore only represent an artistic view of the final
states. The DEM of the exoplanet Huanca is also generated noise, but shows an east–west hemispherical
dichotomy in elevation range due to the tidally influenced nature of this world. Climate dynamics and
ocean circulation patterns are not taken into account in the model. The lack thereof can be seen because
deserts and barren regions of the surface do not form.
Each world’s maximum sea level reached depends on the planet’s size (surface area) and topographic
range. All 21 worlds reached their idea sea levels between 1,000–4,000 mission years. The worlds with the
greatest topographic range have the largest volume oceans for their size. The super-Earth sized worlds
Ragnarok and Pontus have largest volume of water. Heavily cratered world developed hundreds of small
lakes, rather than oceans (i.e. Mercury, Luna, and other moons). The ocean shorelines of Mars, Pluto, Titan,
and Ganymede are of particular interest due to their vast oceans, polar locations, and potential for whole
planet energy circulation. The shoreline position of Mars in the model is consistent with previous estimates
of the Martian water volume and mapped shoreline locations (i.e. Hynek 2016; Luo et al. 2017).

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Chapter 5 – Analysis and interpretations Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Vast geographic changes that would result from whole planet engineering are only partially
represented in the model, and would present new challenges for geochemists, geomorphologists, and
geotechnical engineers. Problems such as natural geologic hazards and crustal instabilities may occur. For
example, if we were able to sustainably terraform worlds with water-ice crusts, such as Pluto or Europa,
then there would be a great challenge in keeping the crust rigid. Preventative options such as developing an
artificial surface for cities, or removing/converting the ice into other useful phases or compounds. These
remain the most difficult of the theoretical terraforming efforts, and because of this, may not work.
Thermal interactions between the crust and the atmosphere are important to address before any one
of these worlds is to become a candidate for colonization. In the model results, we see that there are 16 out
of 21 worlds that developed a cryosphere, mostly in the form of north and south polar ice caps. This was
deliberate on my part, because I cooled the planets too a target equilibrium temperature around 273 K. This
is because for life, hydrologic–cryospheric interactions are favorable when it comes to the availability of
freshwater for consumption. The influence of polar oceans affected the formation of polar ice caps in the
case of Titan, Oberon, Ganymede, Europa, and Pluto, although this may not be an accurate representation
for Oberon, Europa, and Pluto. Geochemical interactions can also drive thermal energy distributions on the
surface and affect potential hydrologic–cryospheric cycles, so take these maps with a grain of salt.

5.3 Temperature
Thermal evolution of the planets follows the theory that we expected, varying growth rates until ideal
conditions are met and steady state is established. As we recall from before, the idea conditions are the
range for liquid water, however for equilibrium temperature I chose 273 K for a stable cryosphere. All 21
worlds reached liquid water stability between 900–2,800 mission years. There is a large focus of the data
converging on the ideal temperature around 1,000 mission years. There are three worlds that have initial
temperatures greater than 300 K: Venus, Ragnarok, and Pontus. The Earth and Huanca started around 290
K, and the rest start below 273 K, with most moons and bodies with trace atmospheres beginning around
less than 10 K. The outer solar system worlds start with a period of no temperature change, while the
colony is still being established (first phase of population). Some of the outer solar system worlds also
show a thermal overshoot, and eventually return to normal colder levels no later than 4,000 mission years.
This anomaly can be attributed to albedo changes, atmospheric pressure perturbations, thermal feedbacks,
resources extraction, sea level changes, and even hydrologic–cryospheric interactions.

5.4 Pressure
Pressure evolution for all 21 worlds follows a similar relationship as to what we saw in temperature.
This is because temperature increase is strongly and directly correlated to the addition of atmospheric
gasses. The timescale for pressure evolution is also similar to that of temperature, reaching ideal conditions
for humans between 500–3,000 mission years. The outlier here is that Venus takes 3,000 mission years to
remove its thick greenhouse atmosphere to 100 kPa. Most of the worlds converge to ideal pressure in
1,000–2,000 years. The pressure graph is shown in both logarithmic and standard y-axis scales to show the
immense initial starting pressures of Venus and Ragnarok. Most worlds with a race atmosphere start in the

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Chapter 5 – Analysis and interpretations Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

model runs with essentially zero Pascal’s of pressure. Mars and Boreas start of with thin atmospheres
(roughly 1–6 kPa), and the worlds that have substantially greater initial atmospheres are Earth (101.3 kPa),
Pontus (75 kPa), and Huanca (20 kPa). Mars undergoes a significant pressure increase between 2,000–
3,000 mission years. This anomaly can be attributed to positive feedbacks between cryosphere-hydrologic
changes, and a human-induced artificial pressure runaway problem. This leads to a partial biosphere
collapse catastrophe (Section 5.6). Pressure changes can be driven by biosphere interactions, thermal
perturbations, geochemical interactions, resource extraction, and population growth.

5.5 Oxygen
The evolution of substantial oxygen in a planet’s atmosphere is only known from what we have
learned about the Earth’s atmosphere and how it naturally replenishes from the biosphere. The governing
chemical mechanism of photosynthesis drives oxygen in our planet’s atmosphere. Oxygen is fundamental
to life, and not only is it essential for the survival of individual animals, but it regulates global cycles of
major nutrients and carbon (Breitburg et al. 2018). The stable range for oxygen suitable for human
habitability is near 210,000 ppm. All 21 worlds reached idea oxygen levels between 1,000–3,500 mission
years. They all followed the theory as expected, with varying growth rates until ideal conditions are met
and steady state is established. There is a convergence of the data converging on the ideal oxygen content
between 1,500–2,000 mission years. There are exoplanets that were chosen to have high initial oxygen
concentrations for diversity in the model: Boreas (450,000 ppm) and Huanca (490,000 ppm). The Earth’s
concentrations start in the ideal range around 210,000 ppm, and the rest of the worlds start near zero ppm.
The outer solar system worlds have a delay in oxygen production, where there is no increase initially,
during colony establishment. A few worlds show an overshoot in oxygen concentrations, and eventually
return to normal levels no later than ~3,500 mission years. Mars undergoes two significant oxygen
catastrophes between 2,000–3,500 mission years. This anomaly can be attributed to a partial biosphere
collapse related to a human-induced artificial pressure runaway problem.

5.6 Biomass
We tread into extremely uncharted territory when discussing the development of life on a previously
un-colonized planet, and may be punctuated by vast ecological changes, atmosphere-biomass interactions,
and unforeseen catastrophes. That being said, if the right geochemical conditions were readily available in
the soil, the introduction of life in a previously barren world is technically possible after the right
conditions for that life form have been established. All 21 worlds reached maximum biomass capacity
between 1,000–3,500 mission years. The maximum levels that are reached depend solely on the planetary
size – surface area and ocean volume. The worlds that have the highest maximum biomass are the super-
Earth sized worlds Ragnarok (1.5x106 megatonnes) and Pontus (1.2x106 megatonnes). Followed by Earth,
Venus, Bacchus, and Boreas (all 9x105 megatonnes). The rest of the worlds have a range of 3x105–7x105
megatonnes of biomass. In reality, the biomass would also be limited by the amount of geographic
locations not conductive to life (i.e. deserts), and could potentially have the largest volume in the oceans.

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Chapter 6 – Timescales and discussion Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

3 BFR’s on the Surface of Mars, a few decades from now

[Link]

6. Timescales and discussion

Technologically induced terraforming in this numerical model produced all 21 tested habitable
worlds, and reached stability of all 6 parameters within an average of 1,000–3,000 mission years. These
results suggest that it is at least feasible to achieve the efforts of terraforming on inter-generational
timescales. While many researchers assume that timescales on the order of thousands or even tens of
thousands of years (Fogg 1987), it is possible that the planet may be brought to the brink of habitability
within 500 years (Dyson 1989). Some researches have even suggested that conditions suitable for humans
could be reached on Mars in 350 years (Freitas 1985). Also suggested timescale for the terraforming of
Venus via SRS robotics is on the order of 500 years and more roughly on the timescale of 1,000 years
(Freitas 1985). The timescales ultimately depend on our technological capabilities and economic resources.
This will determine the changes in the timescales (i.e. the x-axis). However, the shapes of the numerical
data and the dynamics of terraforming should remain consistent with what is presented in this report.
The rate of modern day technological advancements gives us hope that we will be able to come up
with planetary engineering technologies on the Earth. The first large-scale terraforming project will likely
test the capability of the technology to reverse climate change on the Earth (Section 8.1). This model has
suggested we can reduce the temperature of the Earth by removing the pressure of carbon dioxide. If we act
quickly, we may be able to prevent a global climate catastrophe because this report suggests that reversing
the effects of modern climate change may take on the order of 100–1,000 years (Section 8.1). I propose that
future research is done to re-test all 21 worlds given the parameterization that I used, as well as the
remaining 16 real solar system objects I failed to test, and track their terraforming evolution. These
remaining objects I propose include the rest of Uranus’s moons: Miranda, Ariel, Umbriel, Titania,
Neptune's moon: Triton, the Dwarf Planets: Ceres, Charon, Makemake, Eris, and Sedna, and the rest of the
6 exoplanets of the TRAPPIST-1 system.

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Chapter 7 – Economic considerations Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

Artificial megascale planetary-ring world – [Link]

7. Economic considerations
The initial cost of projects such as planetary terraforming would be gargantuan, and the infrastructure
of such an enterprise would have to be built from scratch (Hickman 1999). The technology itself on such a
large scale is not yet developed, let alone financially feasible (Hickman 1999). In the year 2018, we have
seen fast-growing advancements in the economic cost of space travel from SpaceX and Elon Musk, who
have reduced the cost of launching even the biggest vehicles by as much as 95% of the conventional
methods by increasing reusability (Musk 2017). Hickman (1999) pointed out that not many of the current
schemes for terraforming incorporate economic strategies and most expectations seem highly optimistic.
While popular science writers typically describe the benefits to be derived from their favorite very
large space development project in detail, their treatment of the crucial initial capitalization of such projects
is typically sparse or implausible (Hickman 1999). Capitalization is a crucial problem for these projects
because the total capital investment required is very large and the investment takes a very long time before
producing economic returns (Hickman 1999). “Chunky” investments are unattractive to most private
investors and lenders (Hickman 1999). Very large space development projects are best understood as
massive public works projects, which are necessary to open frontiers (Hickman 1999). Despite the
libertarian sentiments in much of the popular science writing on very large space development projects,
government would likely have to play a large role in capitalizing such projects (Hickman 1999).
Completing any very large space development project would probably win humanity a permanent
presence in frontiers beyond Earth (Hickman 1999). New science, technology, wealth, and long term
species survival might all be achieved with this kind of project. This massive undertaking of the heavens
above will need the kind of massive global adoption and immense capital investment which it seems only
governments are able to supply or to fully encourage. If the economic development of space is ever to
move much beyond visionary pipe dreams and the contemporary timid exploitation of near Earth space,
then the nature of the capital investment needed to open the frontiers of space to permanent human
settlement and the role of government in meeting that need will have to be acknowledged (Hickman 1999).

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Chapter 8 – Ethical considerations Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

After a hundred years of the Mars colony – [Link]/mars

8. Ethical considerations
The idea of planetary engineering and terraforming is debatable on an ethical level (e.g. McKay,
2008; Barsoum 2014; McMahon 2016). Proposals to address present-day global warming through the
large-scale application of technology to the climate system, known as geoengineering, raise questions of
environmental ethics relevant to the broader issue of planetary engineering (Haqq-Misra 2012). Insights
from terraforming and environmental ethics to develop a two-axis comparative tool for ethical frameworks
that considers the intrinsic or instrumental value placed upon organisms, environments, planetary systems,
or space (Haqq-Misra 2012). Environmental ethics has developed on Earth and mostly in response to
ecological crises (McKay 2008). It is perhaps not surprising that extrapolating environmental ethics to an
apparently lifeless world is not straightforward (McKay 2008). The universal yet unexamined assumption
of environmental ethics is that nature is equivalent to life (McKay 2008), which on Earth this equivalence
is true. McKay (2008) says the fundamental challenge in applying environmental ethics beyond the Earth is
to delve one level deeper than has been necessary on Earth and examines the difference between the
environmental ethics of nature and the environmental ethics of life. Systems of environmental ethics
(McKay 2008) are based on varying combinations of three normative axioms, which are:
1. Preservationism – The fundamental principle that nature is not to be altered by human beings.
2. Wise stewardship – The fundamental principle that the measure of all things is utility to humans, in
the broadest and wisest sense of utility.
3. Intrinsic worth – The fundamental principle that there exist sets of objects which have intrinsic
worth regardless of their instrumental value to humans.
These are principles on which systems of environmental ethics are based and not categories into which
systems of environmental ethics are grouped. Furthermore, they are not mutually exclusive. Indeed,
virtually all systems of environmental ethics are based on some combination of these principles in varying

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Chapter 8 – Ethical considerations Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

degrees (McKay 2008). The most common argument in environmental ethics is that we humans jeopardize
our own interests when we degrade the environment (McKay 2008). The state of nature on Mars is lifeless
and we have before us for the first time a choice to replace that state with a state with life forms of intrinsic
worth (McKay 2008). If richness and diversity in life forms is a value in itself, then planetary ecosynthesis
on Mars can be considered a good thing (McKay 2008).
As a scientifically pure specimen, Mars allows us to learn about planetary evolution to the greatest
extent (Barsoum 2014). On the other hand, by terraforming Mars, mankind is able to accomplish an
ultimate achievement (Barsoum 2014), and potentially escape extinction. Regardless of what the future
holds for Martian exploration and eventual settlement, human responsibility always exists to not spoil or
exploit the planet (Barsoum 2014). Surely mankind has already accidentally contaminated Mars in the
name of science, though full-scale terraforming involves full-scale contamination (Barsoum 2014).
Introducing all forms of Earth life to Mars, significantly blurs the question of whether or not life on Mars
ever existed or currently does exist today (Barsoum 2014). With mankind playing god of sorts, research
and technological capability exponentially increases – we can learn from Mars on how to protect Earth, but
we must also not lose sight of saving Mars itself (Barsoum 2014).
From the point of view of a cosmocentric ethic, the debate within biology and ecology as to whether
terraforming other worlds is an ethical endeavor involves balancing the need for the preservation of human
life against the intrinsic value of existing planetary ecologies. On the pro-terraforming side of the argument,
there are those like Elon Musk, Robert Zubrin, Martyn J. Fogg, Richard L. S. Taylor and Carl Sagan who
believe that it is humanity's moral obligation to make other worlds suitable for life, as a continuation of the
history of life transforming the environments around it on Earth (e.g. Zubrin 2001; McMahon 2016). They
also point out that Earth would eventually be destroyed if nature takes its course, so that humanity faces a
very long-term choice between terraforming other worlds or allowing all terrestrial life to become extinct.
Terraforming totally barren planets, it is asserted, is not morally wrong as it does not affect any other life.
The opposing argument posits that terraforming would be an unethical interference in nature, and that
given humanity's past treatment of Earth, other planets may be better off without human interference. Still
others strike a middle ground, such as Christopher McKay, who argues that terraforming is ethically sound
only once we have completely assured that an alien planet does not harbor life of its own; but that if it does,
we should not try to reshape it to our own use, but we should engineer its environment to artificially nurture
the alien life and help it thrive and co-evolve, or co-exist with humans (McKay 2008). The fact that we are
altering the Earth’s global climate and the possibility that using the same methods we “can” alter the
habitability of Mars implies that the question of “should” we conduct planetary ecosynthesis is a timely and
relevant one (McKay 2008). McMahon (2016) presented their paper that have an obligation to preserve the
beauty of Martian landscapes, and is often cited in opposition to terraforming Mars.
As exciting and potentially beneficial as terraforming could be for our species, there are those who
question the ethics of transforming entire worlds for our own benefit (Winn 2017). Some suggest that it is
fundamentally not our right to alter worlds beyond Earth, while others argue that each planet's nature is
inextricably tied to its uniqueness, and that making other planets more Earth-like would diminish their

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Chapter 8 – Ethical considerations Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

variety and beauty (Winn 2017). There is also the very real possibility that changing a planet and
introducing Earth-based life could destroy any native, alien life forms that may exist on or under the
planet's surface, possibly even before we can discover and preserve them (Winn 2017). We have some time
before the discussion of interplanetary engineering policies becomes urgent, but likely not as much as many
would believe: already, various nations and corporations are developing systems aimed at creating a
permanent human presence on Mars (Winn 2017). By the time such a colony exists, the decision may have
already been made (Winn 2017). Contamination from human activity is a real risk if one's priority is
conservation of the planet's current state, and an established off-world population may end up taking action
on their own, without regard for the wishes of those back on Earth (Winn 2017).
Although some of these worlds, such as Mars or the Moon, may look beautiful covered in biomass,
oceans, and lakes, some would argue that the diversity and unique qualities of every planet and exoplanet in
the galaxy is what gives them their inherent beauty. Technologically converting multiple planets and moons
to our human standard of ‘blues and greens’ would eventually deplete the natural variation in planet types
and uniqueness. One could even look at such efforts from a parasitic perspective, where humans are these
beings that destroy the natural elements of the universe in search for resources and expansion. This begs the
question of whether or not we are entitled to explore beyond the solar system, let along beyond the Earth.
Do humans deserve another planet? Is it out duty to explore the cosmos given this brief window of cosmic
time in which we have achieved spaceflight? Or are we condemned to die on the Earth if we cannot solve
our own problems with planetary sustainability? These are some of the questions it is important to ask
when trying to understand the fate of humanity, and our place in the universe. It is up to each and every
person, including you, to decide his or her position and beliefs regarding terraforming. We as a civilization
are rapidly developing capabilities that threaten to outpace our ethical consensus. It will be up to the
forward-thinkers of our generation to shape the early days of this debate, so it is wise for us to begin now.

8.1 Reversing Climate Change on Earth

The ethics of planetary engineering and terraforming will be in the forefront of the climate change
debate in the coming decades. I would argue, if we have the ability to engineer the Earth’s atmosphere back
to pre-industrial levels of CO2 (200 ppm or less) by removing CO2 from the oceanic and atmospheric
reservoirs, then we have an obligation to the protect other life on this planet and do so. My mega-scale
engineering method (Figure 4) for removing CO2 from the atmosphere should be considered as a viable
option to buy us time to prevent further devastation to the climate system.
Temperature increases and the effects of rising CO2 levels are obvious in 2018. Countless studies
have been published showing the evidence and straightforward facts concerning the direction that our
planet is heading. In December 2017, 15,364 scientists from 184 countries signed a report that is the second
notice of the World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity (Ripple et al. 2017). In the first notice of this report,
produced in 1992, these concerned professionals called on humankind to curtail environmental destruction
and cautioned that “a great change in our stewardship of the Earth and the life on it is required, if vast
human misery is to be avoided.” Since 1992, with the exception of stabilizing the stratospheric ozone layer,

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Chapter 8 – Ethical considerations Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

humanity has failed to make sufficient progress in generally solving these foreseen environmental
challenges, and alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse (Ripple et al. 2017). Especially troubling is
the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change due to rising GHGs from burning fossil
fuels (Hansen et al. 2013), deforestation (Keenan et al. 2015), and agricultural production—particularly
from farming ruminants for meat consumption (Ripple et al. 2014). Moreover, we have unleashed a mass
extinction event, the sixth in roughly 540 million years, wherein many current life forms could be
annihilated or at least committed to extinction by the end of this century (Ripple et al. 2017).
According to researchers (Mauritsen and Pincus 2017) from the University of Colorado Boulder,
even if we magically stop emitting all greenhouse gasses right now, the Earth is still on course to warm by
at least 1.3°C (2.3°F). Raftery et al. (2017) concluded that the projected warming by the end of the century
is a median 3.2°C (5.8°F), with a 90 percent chance that the global temperature will increase by 2.0–4.9°C
(3.6–8.8°F). They found only a 5 percent chance that the increase will be less than 2°C by 2100. Evans et
al. (2018) has shown with marine fossils that the warming of the polar oceans during the Eocene, when the
atmosphere was richer in CO2, was greater than previously thought that. The difference between polar and
equatorial sea surface temperatures in the Eocene was an estimated 20ºC (Evans et al. 2018). Today the
difference is 28ºC, indicating that Polar Regions are more sensitive to increases in atmospheric carbon
dioxide than the tropics (Evans et al. 2018). Troublingly, said Evans, when the team compared their data
with various modern climate models under Eocene conditions, most models underestimated polar
amplification by about 50 percent (Evans et al. 2018). Schaefer et al. (2016) showed that even Greenland
was nearly ice-free for extended periods during the Pleistocene, indicating that the complete melting of the
Greenland Ice Sheet in near future, is not unreasonable. Further suggesting that subsequent sea level rise of
7.4 meters (not accounting for thermal expansion) is potentially in out future (Schaefer et al. 2016).
The oxygen content of the open ocean and coastal waters has been strongly declining for the past 50
years, largely because of human activities that have increased global temperatures and nutrients discharged
to coastal waters (Breitburg et al. 2018). These changes have accelerated consumption of oxygen by
microbial respiration, reduced solubility of oxygen in water, and reduced the rate of oxygen resupply from
the atmosphere to the ocean interior (Breitburg et al. 2018). These impacts have a wide range of biological
and ecological consequences, and it is imperative that further research is needed to understand and predict
long-term oxygen changes and their effects on marine ecosystems (Breitburg et al. 2018).

Figure 49

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Chapter 8 – Ethical considerations Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

The information presented in this report suggests we can benefit the most from a reduction in the
temperature of the Earth by removing the pressure of carbon dioxide. This is the first step in both saving
the oceanic biosphere from a bottom-up food chain collapse, and decreasing global temperatures. If we act
quickly, we may be able to prevent a global climate catastrophe. The data from the model used in this paper
(Figure 49, previous page) suggests that reversing the effects of modern climate change may take on the
order of 100–1,000 years on the Earth. The ability for us to initiate the reversal begins around 100 years.
Initially, the biosphere undergoes a partial collapse in the next 50 years, loosing nearly 66% of the initial
total biosphere level, while population reaches a minimum of 1 billion (Figures 37 and 38). Both
population and biosphere recover with the terraforming technologies within 200-500 years. Inversely
correlating are sea level and temperature, which all reach stability no later the 1,000 years into the future.
New technologies that bring us hope are being invented every day, such as new methods of enhanced
biological removal and fixation of CO2 from the atmosphere (Schwander et al. 2016). A team of
researchers managed to make a synthetic pathway that converts CO2 into organic compounds faster than
plants. In order to find an enzyme to improve CO2 fixation, the researchers carefully selected 17 enzymatic
compounds from nine organisms. Other hopeful projects include the work of Climate Works in Zurich,
Switzerland, where they have been very successful in the removal of CO2 as a business venture.
To prevent widespread misery and catastrophic biodiversity loss, humanity must practice a more
environmentally sustainable alternative to business as usual (Ripple et al. 2017). Soon it will be too late to
shift course away from our failing trajectory, and time is running out (Ripple et al. 2017). We must
recognize, in our day-to-day lives and in our governing institutions, that Earth with all its life is our only
home (Ripple et al. 2017). I foresee progress happening in the future of this research, and I hope everyone
can join me in propagating the positive potential that this research suggests for sustaining our collective
future on this planet. The ideas presented in this paper can potentially evolve into a real stable and long-
term solution that future generations will one day look back on and thank us for pursuing.

This technical report has provided the first steps of geologic and geochemical constraints on the feasibility
and timelines of technologically inducing the habitability of all planets and moons in our galaxy. My hope
is that this will be the first steps in showing the governments of the world that in order to stop harming the
Earth, and ultimately safeguard ourselves from an inevitable catastrophe, we must reverse climate change
on Earth by investing in planetary engineering technologies – and begin our destiny as an intelligent and
capable species among the stars.

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 Cole C. Pazar (2018) Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

“Imagination will often carry us to worlds that never were. But without it we go nowhere” – Carl Sagan

“I think fundamentally the future is vastly more exciting and interesting if we’re a spacefaring
civilization and a multiplanet species than if we’re not… To our knowledge, life exists
on only one planet, Earth. If something bad happens, it’s gone.” – Elon Musk

“We are the lucky generation. We first broke our earthly bonds and ventured
into space. From our descendants – perches on other planets or distant
space cities, they will look back at our achievement with wonder at our
courage and audacity and with appreciation at our accomplishments,
which assured the future in which they life.” – Walter Cronkite

“The dominant species that replaces us in post-apocalyptic Earth

just might wonder as they gaze upon our mounted skeletons in
their natural history museums, why large headed homo
sapiens fared no better than the proverbially peabrained
dinosaurs” – Neil deGrasee Tyson.

“The long-term survival of the human race

is at risk as long as it is confined to a
single planet.” – Stephen Hawking

“If we survive, our time will be

famous for two reasons: that
at this dangerous moment of
technological adolescence
we managed to avoid self-
destruction; and because
this is the epoch in which
we began our journey to
the stars.” – Carl Sagan

Thank you for taking the time to read this technical report; I wish you all a prosperous long life, and
may humanity gain the knowledge and strength to overcome our most difficult challenges!
– Cole C. Pazar
Artist: Stuz0r, 2017, “Spaceship Earth”, [Link]

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Cole C. Pazar (2018) Terraforming of Terrestrial Earth-sized Planetary Bodies

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