Cold War

The state of gradual tensions and perpetual strife btw US- Russia from late 1940s till 1990s
The term:
• first time used by Bernard Baruch
• popularized by Prof. Lippman through his articles
• symbolised in Churchill's iron curtain speech(Stettin in Baltic to Trieste in Adriatic sea
• K.P.S. Menon - was a war between two ideologies (Capitalism and Communism), two systems
(Bourgeoisie Democracy and Proletarian Dictatorship), two blocs (NATO and Warsaw Pact), two states
(the U.S.A. and the U.S.S.R.) and two personalities
• K. Waltz- WMDs- weapons of peace- kept cold war-cold
Why called so?
• condition of neither war nor peace
• high level of antagonism but no direct military confrontation

HOW DID COLD WAR BEGAN?

MAJOR CONFRONTATIONAL POLICIES
1. TRUMAN DOCTRINE (1947)- ended Munroe doctrine of isolation
2. MARSHALL PLAN: to aid European socio-economic reconstruction
3. COMECON: by the USSR as a counter to the Marshall Plan
OTHER CAUSES:
1. Western powers' fear of Soviet expansion
2. Ideological conflict
3. Soviet refusal to withdraw forces from Northern Iran as agreed after WW2
4. Mackinder's Heartland Theory: control of Eastern Europe was crucial for global dominance
PHASES
1. End of WW2 till 1962(cuban missile crisis)
2. 1962- 1979 (Soviet invasion in afg)- Detente period
3. New cold war- 1979-1989(fall of berlin wall and Malta Summit- official declaration of end of cold war)

Distrust during WW2: PHASE 2: Detente

• Stalin's view of US actions as strategy of 1. 1964- PTBT
containment 2. 1967- treaty on peaceful use of outer space
• Manhattan project- of nuclear weapon- not 3. 1969- NPT
shared with Russia 4. 1970- Moscow Bonn agreemt- to ease tensio
• use of WMD against japan against agreement 5. 1971- berlin agreement- restored travel
of joint attack with Russia 6. 1972- SALT, ABM treaty, Korean Agreement
• Disagreements over post war arrangements in 7. 1975 Helsinki Agreement aimed to improve r
Europe- Russia wanted to install pro soviet Eastern and Western Europe.
forces and US wanted puppet regimes 8. End of the Cambodian War in 1975
• Issue wrt future of Gr- USSR wanted huge 9. Formation of US- china- pak axis ag. USSR-IN
indemnity but US saw it as counterproductive But not completely free from wars
1. Vietnam wars-1965-75: Eisenhower stated tal
PHASE 1: response and gradual escalation
 1946- Baruch plan of nuclear disarmament- 1971- India Pak war- Confrontation of US and
countered by Gromviko plan Bay of Bengal
2. 1947- Truman doctrine 3. 1973- Yom Kippur war between Arabs and Isr
3. 1949- USSR tested WMD Factors leading to detente:
4. 1950-53- Korean crisis- US success 1. Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962- realisation that
5. 1956- Suez canal crisis- estd end of European needed due to economic crisis at home and d
hegemony 2. Fear of nuclear war
6. 1961- Berlin wall 3. Increased influence of the USSR and the Socia
7. 1962- Cuban missile crisis politics, prompting the USA to consider deten
Bipolarity was estd- 4. Evolution of Soviet foreign policy towards pea
• Ideological- Communism vs capitalism fostering detente.
• Economic- EU vs COMECON 5. Role of the (NAM).
• Strategic- NATO vs Warsaw Do you think there was qualitative improvement in U
during detente- no as the rivalry was based on geop
PHASE 3
1. 1979- soviet invasion of USSR- US created a f
2. Russia lost
3. Reagon engaged Russia in a costly Arms race
defence initiative
4. 1989- fall of Berlin wall

END OF THE COLD WAR

1. Fall of the Berlin Wall (1989)
2. Reunification of Germany (1990)
3. Dissolution of the Soviet Union (1991)

COLLAPSE OF USSR
Complex interplay of personality , politics and economy
Reasons for collapse
1. USA's constant attempt for coloured revolutions(started with Poland and other countries followed due to
demonstration effect)
2. Withdrawal of Russian support to communist dictators
3. Gorbachev factor
a. Perestroika(eco restructuring) and Glasnost(openness)
b. Sinatra doctrine against Brezhnev doctrine meant to loosen control over east European states
4. Beggar thy policy of Ronald Reagon- engaging Russia in star wars
5. USSR died its own death:
a. unsustainable communist model
b. communist party regime turned authoritarian
c. Structural factors: Chernobyl disaster, famine and earthquake in Russia

EFFECTS OF USSR'S COLLAPSE

1. Birth of unipolarity (ideological as well as strategic)
2. increased role of the UN.
3. Rise of terrorism and proxy wars
4. various states began to accept the principles of liberalization, democratization, open competition,
peaceful beingness and mutual cooperation
Consequences of cold war
1. Nuclear arms race
2. emergence of NAM
3. Arms race and proxy wars in 3rd WC
4. Paralysis of UN
5. However for KW and Mears. it was the most stable phase

Consequences of end of cold war

1. liberal world order became global
2. question on NAM
3. clash of ideology changes=d into clash of civilisations
4. John Lewis Gaddis- New world order led to diffusion of threat
5. disintegration of USSR brought windfall gains to China
6. Policy of containment shifted to rising china

COLD WAR 2.0 or New cold war(NCW)

The term NCW is used to compare the present day conflicts and tensions between US-china to the bitter
ideological rivalry of cold war phase
• The two major powers are engaged in conflict across multiple geographic theatres (S. Asia, SEA, Africa,
Europe)
• Multiple vectors (trade, investment, tech, defence expenditure)

Similarities with cold war era:

1. Stanley Johnny- The pol elites of china and USA see each other as main rivals
a. USA's national security strategy(2017) called china a revisionist power
2. Conflict is frames btw free world and authoritarian regime . Adding to the symmetry- PRC like USSR is
run by a communist party
3. US is in the process of forming anti china alliance(quad) and china is forming a rival bloc(BRI, SCO, AIIB)
4. Joseph nye- US- china relations are at the lowest
5. henry kissinger - US- china relations are in the foothills of a cold war

Different from Cold war 1.0

1. US- china eco are deeply integrated, social convergence is also emerging.
2. China has thriving private sector and colourful western brands different from Grey uniformity of USSR
3. Cold war era- bipolar; today's world- multipolar with presence of non state actors
4. hence Stephen M Waltz- rather than a replay of the cold war, US- china rivalry showcases that a new
type of competition is emerging
5. It is classic example of thucydides trap (Graham allison)

Possible consequences of rise of china - 2 schools of thought (uneasy peace or on the brink of an
apocalyptic war)
1. Offensive realists(mears)- transfer of hegemony is rarely accomplished peacefully. This is evident from
the trade wars
2. Chinese century is stable and peaceful
a. high levels of interdependence brought about by globaln
b. stark military imbalance
 c. rather than challenging and displacing USA, china appears to recognise the benefits that china
derives from continued US hegemony
d. Fareed Zakaria- US and china are locked in "cold peace"China is increasingly working within the
western order rather than challenging it
Niall Ferguson- the bloody 20th century witnessed the descent of the west and a reorientation of the world
towards the east