MATHEMATICS 9709/62
Paper 6 Probability & Statistics 2 February/March 2020
1 The booklets produced by a certain publisher contain, on average, 1 incorrect letter per 30 000 letters,
and these errors occur randomly. A randomly chosen booklet from this publisher contains
12 500 letters.
Use a suitable approximating distribution to find the probability that this booklet contains at least
2 errors. [3]
2 Lengths of a certain species of lizard are known to be normally distributed with standard deviation
3.2 cm. A naturalist measures the lengths of a random sample of 100 lizards of this species and obtains
an !% confidence interval for the population mean. He finds that the total width of this interval is
1.25 cm.
Find !. [5]
3 In the past, the mean time taken by Freda for a particular daily journey was 39.2 minutes. Following
the introduction of a one-way system, Freda wishes to test whether the mean time for the journey
has decreased. She notes the times, t minutes, for 40 randomly chosen journeys and summarises the
results as follows.
n = 40 Σt = 1504 Σt2 = 57 760
(a) Calculate unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance of the new journey time. [3]
(b) Test, at the 5% significance level, whether the population mean time has decreased. [5]
4 The number of accidents on a certain road has a Poisson distribution with mean 0.4 per 50-day period.
(a) Find the probability that there will be fewer than 3 accidents during a year (365 days). [3]
(b) The probability that there will be no accidents during a period of n days is greater than 0.95.
Find the largest possible value of n. [4]
5 Bottles of Lanta contain approximately 300 ml of juice. The volume of juice, in millilitres, in a bottle
is 300 + X , where X is a random variable with probability density function given by
T 3
100 − x2 −10 ≤ x ≤ 10,
f x = 4000
0 otherwise.
(a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen bottle of Lanta contains more than 305 ml of juice. [3]
(b) Given that 25% of bottles of Lanta contain more than 300 + p ml of juice, show that
p3 − 300p + 1000 = 0. [4]
(c) Given that p = 3.47, and that 50% of bottles of Lanta contain between 300 − q and 300 + q ml
of juice, find q. Justify your answer. [2]
6 The volumes, in millilitres, of large and small cups of tea are modelled by the distributions N 200, 30
and N 110, 20 respectively.
(a) Find the probability that the total volume of a randomly chosen large cup of tea and a randomly
chosen small cup of tea is less than 300 ml. [4]
(b) Find the probability that the volume of a randomly chosen large cup of tea is more than twice the
volume of a randomly chosen small cup of tea. [6]
7 A national survey shows that 95% of year 12 students use social media. Arvin suspects that the
percentage of year 12 students at his college who use social media is less than the national percentage.
He chooses a random sample of 20 students at his college and notes the number who use social media.
He then carries out a test at the 2% significance level.
(a) Find the rejection region for the test. [4]
(b) Find the probability of a Type I error. [1]
(c) Jimmy believes that the true percentage at Arvin’s college is 70%. Assuming that Jimmy is
correct, find the probability of a Type II error. [3]
MATHEMATICS 9709/61
Paper 6 Probability & Statistics 2 May/June 2020
1 The lengths, X centimetres, of a random sample of 7 leaves from a certain variety of tree are as follows.
5.2 4.8 5.5 6.1 4.8 3.9 4.4
(a) Calculate unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance of X . [3]
It is now given that the true value of the population variance of X is 0.55, and that X has a normal
distribution.
(b) Find a 95% confidence interval for the population mean of X . [3]
2 In the past the yield of a certain crop, in tonnes per hectare, had mean 0.56 and standard deviation
0.08. Following the introduction of a new fertilizer, the farmer intends to test at the 2.5% significance
level whether the mean yield has increased. He finds that the mean yield over 10 years is 0.61 tonnes
per hectare.
(a) State two assumptions that are necessary for the test. [2]
(b) Carry out the test. [5]
3 The masses, in kilograms, of large sacks of flour and small sacks of flour have the independent
distributions N 40, 1.52 and N 12, 0.72 respectively.
(a) Find the probability that the total mass of 6 randomly chosen large sacks of flour is more than
245 kg. [4]
(b) Find the probability that the mass of a randomly chosen large sack of flour is less than 4 times
the mass of a randomly chosen small sack of flour. [6]
4 A fair spinner has five sides numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. The score on one spin is denoted by X .
(a) Show that Var X = 2. [1]
Fiona has another spinner, also with five sides numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. She suspects that it is biased so
that the expected score is less than 3. In order to test her suspicion, she plans to spin her spinner 40
times. If the mean score is less than 2.6 she will conclude that her spinner is biased in this way.
(b) Find the probability of a Type I error. [4]
(c) State what is meant by a Type II error in this context. [1]
5 Each week a sports team plays one home match and one away match. In their home matches they
score goals at a constant average rate of 2.1 goals per match. In their away matches they score goals
at a constant average rate of 0.8 goals per match. You may assume that goals are scored at random
times and independently of one another.
(a) A week is chosen at random.
(i) Find the probability that the team scores a total of 4 goals in their two matches. [2]
(ii) Find the probability that the team scores a total of 4 goals, with more goals scored in the
home match than in the away match. [3]
(b) Use a suitable approximating distribution to find the probability that the team scores fewer than
25 goals in 10 randomly chosen weeks. [4]
(c) Justify the use of the approximating distribution used in part (b). [1]
6 The length of time, T minutes, that a passenger has to wait for a bus at a certain bus stop is modelled
by the probability density function given by
T 3
20t − t2 0 ≤ t ≤ 20,
f t = 4000
0 otherwise.
(a) Sketch the graph of y = f t. [1]
(b) Hence explain, without calculation, why E T = 10. [1]
(c) Find Var T . [3]
(d) It is given that P T < 10 + a = p, where 0 < a < 10.
Find P 10 − a < T < 10 + a in terms of p. [2]
(e) Find P 8 < T < 12. [3]
(f) Give one reason why this model may be unrealistic. [1]
MATHEMATICS 9709/62
Paper 6 Probability & Statistics 2 May/June 2020
1 The masses, in grams, of plums of a certain type have the distribution N 40.4, 5.22 . The plums are
packed in bags, with each bag containing 6 randomly chosen plums. If the total weight of the plums
in a bag is less than 220 g the bag is rejected.
Find the percentage of bags that are rejected. [4]
2 A shop obtains apples from a certain farm. It has been found that 5% of apples from this farm are
Grade A. Following a change in growing conditions at the farm, the shop management plan to carry
out a hypothesis test to find out whether the proportion of Grade A apples has increased. They select
25 apples at random. If the number of Grade A apples is more than 3 they will conclude that the
proportion has increased.
(a) State suitable null and alternative hypotheses for the test. [1]
(b) Find the probability of a Type I error. [3]
In fact 2 of the 25 apples were Grade A.
(c) Which of the errors, Type I or Type II, is possible? Justify your answer. [2]
3 In the data-entry department of a certain firm, it is known that 0.12% of data items are entered
incorrectly, and that these errors occur randomly and independently.
(a) A random sample of 3600 data items is chosen. The number of these data items that are
incorrectly entered is denoted by X .
(i) State the distribution of X , including the values of any parameters. [1]
(ii) State an appropriate approximating distribution for X , including the values of any
parameters.
Justify your choice of approximating distribution. [3]
(iii) Use your approximating distribution to find P X > 2. [2]
(b) Another large random sample of n data items is chosen. The probability that the sample contains
no data items that are entered incorrectly is more than 0.1.
Use an approximating distribution to find the largest possible value of n. [3]
4 The score on one spin of a 5-sided spinner is denoted by the random variable X with probability
distribution as shown in the table.
x 0 1 2 3 4
P X = x 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
(a) Show that Var X = 1.2. [2]
The spinner is spun 200 times. The score on each spin is noted and the mean, X , of the 200 scores is
found.
(b) Given that P X > a = 0.1, find the value of a. [4]
.
(c) Explain whether it was necessary to use the Central Limit theorem in your answer to part (b) [1]
(d) Johann has another, similar, spinner. He suspects that it is biased so that the mean score is less
than 2. He spins his spinner 200 times and finds that the mean of the 200 scores is 1.86.
Given that the variance of the score on one spin of this spinner is also 1.2, test Johann’s suspicion
at the 5% significance level. [5]
5 (a) The random variable X has the distribution Po ,.
(i) State the values that X can take. [1]
It is given that P X = 1 = 3 × P X = 0.
(ii) Find ,. [1]
(iii) Find P 4 ≤ X ≤ 6. [2]
(b) The random variable Y has the distribution Po - where - is large. Using a suitable approximating
distribution, it is found that P Y < 46 = 0.0668, correct to 4 decimal places.
Find -. [5]
6 A random variable X has probability density function given by
t
k
1 ≤ x ≤ a,
f x = x2
0 otherwise,
where k and a are positive constants.
a
(a) Show that k = . [3]
a−1
(b) Find E X in terms of a. [3]
(c) Find the 60th percentile of X in terms of a. [4]
MATHEMATICS 9709/63
Paper 6 Probability & Statistics 2 May/June 2020
1 A random sample of 100 values of a variable X is taken. These values are summarised below.
n = 100 Σ x = 1556 Σ x2 = 29 004
Calculate unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance of X . [3]
2 Each day at the gym, Sarah completes three runs. The distances, in metres, that she completes
in the three runs have the independent distributions W ∼ N 1520, 450, X ∼ N 2250, 720 and
Y ∼ N 3860, 1050.
Find the probability that, on a particular day, Y is less than the total of W and X . [5]
3 The number of customers who visit a particular shop between 9.00 am and 10.00 am has the distribution
Po ,. In the past the value of , was 5.2. Following some new advertising, the manager wishes to test
whether the value of , has increased. He chooses a random sample of 20 days and finds that the total
number of customers who visited the shop between 9.00 am and 10.00 am on those days is 125.
Use an approximating distribution to test at the 2.5% significance level whether the value of , has
increased. [6]
4 The random variable A has the distribution Po 1.5. A1 and A2 are independent values of A.
(a) Find P A1 + A2 < 2. [3]
(b) Given that A1 + A2 < 2, find P A1 = 1. [4]
(c) Give a reason why A1 − A2 cannot have a Poisson distribution. [1]
5 Sunita has a six-sided die with faces marked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. The probability that the die shows a six
on any throw is p. Sunita throws the die 500 times and finds that it shows a six 70 times.
(a) Calculate an approximate 99% confidence interval for p. [4]
(b) Sunita believes that the die is fair. Use your answer to part (a) to comment on her belief. [1]
(c) Sunita uses the result of her 500 throws to calculate an !% confidence interval for p. This interval
has width 0.04.
Find the value of !. [5]
6 The length, X centimetres, of worms of a certain type is modelled by the probability density function
T 6
10 − x x − 5 5 ≤ x ≤ 10,
f x = 125
0 otherwise.
(a) State the value of E X . [1]
(b) Find Var X . [3]
(c) Two worms of this type are chosen at random.
Find the probability that exactly one of them has length less than 6 cm. [5]
7 A market researcher is investigating the length of time that customers spend at an information desk.
He plans to choose a sample of 50 customers on a particular day.
(a) He considers choosing the first 50 customers who visit the information desk.
Explain why this method is unsuitable. [1]
The actual lengths of time, in minutes, that customers spend at the information desk may be assumed
to have mean - and variance 4.8. The researcher knows that in the past the value of - was 6.0. He
wishes to test, at the 2% significance level, whether this is still true. He chooses a random sample of
50 customers and notes how long they each spend at the information desk.
(b) State the probability of making a Type I error and explain what is meant by a Type I error in this
context. [2]
(c) Given that the mean time spent at the information desk by the 50 customers is 6.8 minutes, carry
out the test. [5]
(d) Give a reason why it was necessary to use the Central Limit theorem in your answer to part (c).
[1]
MATHEMATICS 9709/61/6 3
Paper 6 Probability & Statistics 2 October/November 2020
1 It is known that, on average, 1 in 300 flowers of a certain kind are white. A random sample of
200 flowers of this kind is selected.
(a) Use an appropriate approximating distribution to find the probability that more than 1 flower in
the sample is white. [3]
(b) Justify the approximating distribution used in part (a). [1]
The probability that a randomly chosen flower of another kind is white is 0.02. A random sample of
150 of these flowers is selected.
(c) Use an appropriate approximating distribution to find the probability that the total number of
white flowers in the two samples is less than 4. [3]
2 In a survey, a random sample of 250 adults in Fromleigh were asked to fill in a questionnaire about
their travel.
(a) It was found that 102 adults in the sample travel by bus. Find an approximate 90% confidence
interval for the proportion of all the adults in Fromleigh who travel by bus. [3]
(b) The survey included a question about the amount, x dollars, spent on travel per year. The results
are summarised as follows.
n = 250 Σ x = 50 460 Σ x2 = 19 854 200
Find unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance of the amount spent per year on
travel. [3]
A councillor wanted to select a random sample of houses in Fromleigh. He planned to select the first
house on each of the 143 streets in Fromleigh.
(c) Explain why this would not provide a random sample. [1]
3 The masses, in kilograms, of female and male animals of a certain species have the distributions
N 102, 272 and N 170, 552 respectively.
Find the probability that a randomly chosen female has a mass that is less than half the mass of a
randomly chosen male. [6]
4 f x
x
0 a
The diagram shows the probability density function, f x, of a random variable X . For 0 ≤ x ≤ a,
f x = k; elsewhere f x = 0.
(a) Express k in terms of a. [1]
(b) Given that Var X = 3, find a. [4]
5 The number of absences per week by workers at a factory has the distribution Po 2.1.
(a) Find the standard deviation of the number of absences per week. [1]
(b) Find the probability that the number of absences in a 2-week period is at least 2. [3]
(c) Find the probability that the number of absences in a 3-week period is more than 4 and less
than 8. [2]
Following a change in working conditions, the management wished to test whether the mean number
of absences has decreased. They found that, in a randomly chosen 3-week period, there were exactly
2 absences.
(d) Carry out the test at the 10% significance level. [5]
(e) State, with a reason, which of the errors, Type I or Type II, might have been made in carrying
out the test in part (d). [2]
6 The time, in minutes, for Anjan’s journey to work on Mondays has mean 38.4 and standard deviation
6.9.
(a) Find the probability that Anjan’s mean journey time for a random sample of 30 Mondays is
between 38 and 40 minutes. [5]
Anjan wishes to test whether his mean journey time is different on Tuesdays. He chooses a random
sample of 30 Tuesdays and finds that his mean journey time for these 30 Tuesdays is 40.2 minutes.
Assume that the standard deviation for his journey time on Tuesdays is 6.9 minutes.
(b) (i) State, with a reason, whether Anjan should use a one-tail or a two-tail test. [1]
(ii) Carry out the test at the 10% significance level. [5]
(iii) Explain whether it was necessary to use the Central Limit theorem in part (b)(ii). [1]
MATHEMATICS 9709/62
Paper 6 Probability & Statistics 2 October/November 2020
1 On average, 1 in 50 000 people have a certain gene.
Use a suitable approximating distribution to find the probability that more than 2 people in a random
sample of 150 000 have the gene. [3]
2 A six-sided die has faces marked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. When the die is thrown 300 times it shows a six on
56 throws.
(a) Calculate an approximate 96% confidence interval for the probability that the die shows a six on
one throw. [3]
(b) Maroulla claims that the die is biased.
Use your answer to part (a) to comment on this claim. [1]
3
f x
x
−1 0 1 2 3 4
A random variable X takes values between 0 and 3 only and has probability density function as shown
in the diagram, where c is a constant.
(a) Show that c = 23 . [1]
(b) Find P X > 2. [2]
(c) Calculate E X . [4]
2 2
4 The areas, X cm , of petals of a certain kind of flower have mean - cm . In the past it has been found
that - = 8.9. Following a change in the climate, a botanist claims that the mean is no longer 8.9. The
areas of a random sample of 200 petals from this kind of flower are measured, and the results are
summarized by
Σ x = 1850, Σ x2 = 17 850.
Test the botanist’s claim at the 2.5% significance level. [8]
5 Customers arrive at a shop at a constant average rate of 2.3 per minute.
(a) State another condition for the number of customers arriving per minute to have a Poisson
distribution. [1]
It is now given that the number of customers arriving per minute has the distribution Po 2.3.
(b) Find the probability that exactly 3 customers arrive during a 1-minute period. [2]
(c) Find the probability that more than 3 customers arrive during a 2-minute period. [3]
(d) Five 1-minute periods are chosen at random. Find the probability that no customers arrive during
exactly 2 of these 5 periods. [3]
6 A biscuit manufacturer claims that, on average, 1 in 3 packets of biscuits contain a prize offer. Gerry
suspects that the proportion of packets containing the prize offer is less than 1 in 3. In order to test the
manufacturer’s claim, he buys 20 randomly selected packets. He finds that exactly 2 of these packets
contain the prize offer.
(a) Carry out the test at the 10% significance level. [5]
(b) Maria also suspects that the proportion of packets containing the prize offer is less than 1 in 3.
She also carries out a significance test at the 10% level using 20 randomly selected packets. She
will reject the manufacturer’s claim if she finds that there are 3 or fewer packets containing the
prize offer.
Find the probability of a Type II error in Maria’s test if the proportion of packets containing the
prize offer is actually 1 in 7. [3]
(c) Explain what is meant by a Type II error in this context. [1]
7 Before a certain type of book is published it is checked for errors, which are then corrected. For costing
purposes each error is classified as either minor or major. The numbers of minor and major errors in
a book are modelled by the independent distributions N 380, 140 and N 210, 80 respectively. You
should assume that no continuity corrections are needed when using these models.
A book of this type is chosen at random.
(a) Find the probability that the number of minor errors is at least 200 more than the number of
major errors. [5]
The costs of correcting a minor error and a major error are 20 cents and 50 cents respectively.
(b) Find the probability that the total cost of correcting the errors in the book is less than $190. [5]
March 2020
Paper 62
1. 0.0661 or 0.0662 2. a = 94.9 or 95 3.(a) Mean = 37.6, Variance = 31.0
(b) Ho: = 39.2; H1: < 39.2; z = –1.817 < – 1.645; Reject Ho; There is evidence that mean time has
5
decrased. 4.(a) 0.441 (b) 6 5.(a) (c) 3.47
32
6.(a) 0.0786 or 0.0787 (b) 0.0283 7.(a) X < 16 (b) 0.0159 (c) 0.107
May/June 2020
Paper 61
1.(a) Mean = 4.96; Variance = 0.523 (b) [ 4.42; 5.49] 2.(a) Assume SD unchanged and
Yields normally distributed. (b) Ho: = 0.56; H1: > 0.56; z = 1.976 >1.96; Reject Ho;
There is evidence that mean yield has increased. 3.(a) 0.0867 (b) 0.994
4.(b) 0.0367 or 0.0368 (c) concluding that spinner is unbiased when it is biased.
5.(a)(i) 0.162 (ii) 0.113 (b) 0.202 (c) > 15 6.(b) symmetrical (c) 20
(d) 2p – 1 (e) 0.296 (f) does not allow times greater than 20 min.
Paper 62
1. 3.93% 2.(a) Ho: p = 0.05; H1: p > 0.05 (b) 0.0341 (c) Type II; will conclude
proportion not increased. 3.(a)(i) B(3600, 0.0012) (ii) Po(4.32) ; n > 50, np <5 (iii) 0.805
(b) 1918 4.(b) 2.10 (c) Yes, because X is not normally distributed.
(d) Ho: = 2; H1: < 2; z = –1.807 < –1.645; Reject Ho; There is evidence that the spinner is biased
so that mean is less than 2. 5.(a)(i) 0, 1, 2, 3, ….. (ii) 3 (iii) 0.319 (b) 56.8
𝑎𝑙𝑛 𝑎 5𝑎
6.(b) (c)
𝑎−1 2𝑎+3
Paper 63
1. Mean = 15.56; Variance = 48.4 2. 0.0281
3. Ho: = 104 (or 5.2); H1: > 104 (or 5.2); z = 2.010 >1.96; Reject Ho; There is evidence that
has increased. 4.(a) 0.199 (b) 0.375 (c) takes negative values
5.(a) [0.100; 0.180] (b) 0.1666…. lies within confidence interval therefore belief is supported or
justified. (c) 80.3% 6.(a) 7.5 (b) 1.25 (c) 0.186
7.(a) Later customers might spend times different from first ones. (b) 0.02; Concluding that 6.0
when actually = 6.0. (c) Ho: = 6.0; H1: 6.0; z = 2.582 >2.326; Reject Ho; There is
evidence that 6.0. (d) Population distribution is unknown.
November 2020
Paper 61/63
1.(a) 0.144 (b) n > 50, np < 5 (c) 0.501 2.(a) [0.357; 0.459]
(b) Mean = 201.84; Variance = 38 832.75 (c) Every house doesn’t have equal chance of being
1
selected. 3. 0.330 4.(a) k = (b) 6 5.(a) 1.45 (b) 0.922 (c) 0.455
𝑎
(d) Ho: = 6.3; H1: < 6.3; 0.0498 < 0.1; Reject Ho; There is evidence that mean number of absences
has decreased. (e) Ho rejected, Hence Type I error possible. 6.(a) 0.523
(b)(i) 2-tail because looking for ‘change’ not decrease or increase.
(ii) Ho: = 38.4; H1: 38.4; z = 1.429 < 1.645; Accept Ho; There is no evidence that mean journey
time has changed. (iii) Yes, because population distribution unknown.
Paper 62
1. 0.577 2.(a) [0.141; 0.233] (b) lies within confidence interval, so no reason to
1
believe die is biased. 3.(b) (c) 1 4. Unbiased estimate of Mean = 9.25; Variance =
9
3.7060; Ho: = 8.9; H1: 8.9; z = 2.24 < 2.57; Reject Ho; There is evidence that mean is not 8.9.
5.(a) Customers arrive independently or singly or at random. (b) 0.203 (c) 0.674
1 1
(d) 0.0732 or 0.0733 6.(a) Ho: p = ; H1: p < ; 0.0176 < 0.1; Reject Ho; There is no
3 3
evidence to support manufacturers claim. (b) 0.318 (c) Concluding that prop is 1 in 3
when it is actually less (1 in 7) 7.(a) 0.0216 (b) 0.962 or 0.963
